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Guest Post: If The Market Rolls Over Here....
Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
If The Market Rolls Over Here....
If this rally runs out of steam, history suggests the next move down could plumb depths not seen in years.
If the market rolls over here, the next bottom might be a lot lower than most players think possible. After all, the "news" is all positive: Europe's debt crisis is now resolved; employment in the U.S. is trending up, GDP is growing nicely, etc. etc. etc.
As food for thought, here are two charts, courtesy of frequent contributor B.C., that suggest the good news might not only be priced in, but it might abruptly cease flowing.
The first chart is of the S&P 500 from 1973 to the present. The current rally has stalled right at a multi-year line of resistance, and a potential A-B-C pattern in a long-term channel suggests a return visit to the March '08 lows around 666, or perhaps even lower.
Here are B.C.'s observations:
If a C wave is imminent, a typical pattern is 2 (or 2.382-2.764) x A or a target of the '02-'03 and fall '08 lows, or even as low as the 500s-600s eventually. C = A would imply an idealized target in the 460s and nominal SPX 600s (US$ constant at the current level).
Such a decline in a period of "growth" seems impossible, but we should keep in mind the possibility that four conditions could cause growth to roll over and corporate profits to compress:
1. Rising energy input costs
2. Rising U.S. dollar decimates overseas earnings of U.S. corporations
3. Tapped-out consumers run out of gas (literally)
4. Federal government stops borrowing and blowing 10% of GDP every year
Next up, an analog chart of the Nikkei and the S&P 500 (SPX). To align apples to apples, this chart tracks the dollar-adjusted Nikkei from its top in 1989 and the dollar-adjusted SPX from its top in 2000. (For reference, the yen-adjusted Nikkei is also plotted.)
Interestingly, the SPX has tracked the Nikkei rather closely--at least until the extraordinary monetary interventions by the Federal Reserve known as QE2 and Operation Twist put booster rockets on the market (with some recent aid from the ECB's LTRO injection of about $1.5 trillion into the banking sector since December).
If the SPX were to continue tracking the Nikkei, the next bottom won't occur until late 2013 or early 2014--two years hence.
Here are B.C.'s notes on this chart:
Note how relatively closely the SPX was tracking the currency-adj. corollary with the Nikkei until QE2 and "Operation Twist". Coincidence . . .? I suspect not. Had the SPX tracked the corollary as in '01 and '08, the SPX would be in the 800s-900s by now.
Can the Fed and shadow banksters prevent for the next 18-24 months the historical tendency for the SPX to follow the self-similar cyclical and secular patterns? I suspect we are going to witness their ongoing desperate attempts to do so.
The problem for the Fed is that interest rates are already zero, and playing around with bonds and buying more mortgages (the Fed already owns $1 trillion) is ultimately pushing on a string: the Fed can't force all the free money into productive investments, nor can it force banks to lend or consumers to spend.
The cliche is "don't fight the Fed;" there is no need to "fight the Fed" because they're busy self-destructing, and all we have to do is watch.
Maybe the market will follow Apple in a trajectory to the moon here. If it doesn't, a variety of other models suggests the wheels may fall off the "growth and rising profits forever" story and the market will decline to test recent lows or even hit new lows.
That's not what the Fed or the politicos want, but events on stage may be slipping beyond their off-stage control.
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Holy Crap! I read the headline as "If Merkel rolls over here..."
The FED is the market. They are controlling everything. It is the furthest thing from a free market I've ever seen.
It won't roll over. I think Benocide was lying yesterday. He knows damn well that the only way out of the massive debt situation is to inflate. The stock markets will rise in nominal terms. The sheeple will be happy watching the S&P rise, meanwhile have no clue how or why their wealth is being depleted.
Just gotta play the crashes.
Every time the printing stops, crash. But from the world-wide printing that's been going on, don't know if the printing will ever stop from here on out.
Hell. The obvious. If QE doesn't come 'voluntarily' Wall Street on its own will crash the market forcing Ben's hand. One or the other.
IF IF IF!
If only I could magically remove the word 'IF' from the headline....
Let the Fed commit suicide. Adios asshole.
Potemkin Markets
The USSR had nothing on us, baby.
Nearing event horizon
"Mo' Money... Mo' Problems..."
The FED and Central Banks will keep printing... which means the markets should continue to inflate. I believe at that point, bonds fall and rates rise. The money moving out of bonds into riskier instruments like equities could really get the inflation party going.
Agree 100%. The FED and the ECB can SAY whatever they want, but they can now only DO 1 thing - monetize for as long as they can get away with it. It's that or make the banks eat their losses, and THAT will never happen. Far more palatable for the average American or European to gradually notice they're getting less for their money that it is to wake up one morning and find out that the bank's gone broke and all their money's gone.
The 2 major investment choices that most people invest with are stocks or bonds... At SOME point - people aren't going to be crazy about a 10 year bond at zero...I mean 1.95%... Which means money of out bonds into equities and rates rise.
To make up for rising rates and higher debt payments, deficits will rise, banks will print more.
I'm pretty sure this is leads to hyperinflation. ;-)
Treasurey rates don't ever HAVE to rise. The Fed COULD buy up all of the new Treasuries at whatever rate it decides. That's not exactly good for the public, but it keeps the interest on the national debt down. If that goes up, the US blows up fast. The longer they keep this farce up, the worse the aftermath will be. I think they've already taken it too far and are hoping for Krugman's aliens to invade so that they have a good excuse for the aftermath. They just keep covering up a lie with a lie... eventually it will all come out and it will seem like lunacy what was done, but when you get deep enough into the lie, you CAN'T get out of it. I'm sure there's a psychological term for that.
Agreed
With just mths away from an election, the continuation of this farce is easy. after the golden booyyee is reinstated, rollover,QE new market lows will be daily read
On a side note, I can't really watch those fed speeches because well i just can't, but yesterday i did just long enough to notice contortions on Bernake's face that I've never seen before.....
Oh, and I think Barney Frank has a man crush on the Bernanke.
he digs the bernank's trim...
Which is why they shanked gold.
He's lying again today as we speak...he does'nt even read the data he's "quoting". What a loon.
I agree -- that market rollover is the Godot that everyone at ZH has been waiting for forever. The market has been about to roll over for months. Mr. Hugh Smith claims to be of two minds, but I can only see one.
The market would only roll over if:
1) I go balls to the wall long. (For $25 you can sign up for my newsletter and I will tell you when.)
2) The powers that be want a roll-over.
Doug Kass is also calling for a modest roll-over, and he seems to know how the big players are positioned. I would trust that much more than CHS's rambling about who can't do what.
Doug Cass is part of the "lunatic brigade"...hence "the market rallies on his news." not saying he won't be proven right... but the Treasury market is the best economic forecaster you can have. If those yields plunge back to the 1.75 range then yes...Problem BofA returns. The fact of the matter however is if these low rates which indeed are being spread throughout the economy courtesy of Citigroup are "sustained" that combined with continued massive Federal stimulus will simply "command recovery." I agree it is far from elegant. I know I've been living the blues for some time now and see no end in site to that. "Cry me a river" as they say. Or "blow up Syria Mr President!" I know it'll make me feel better.
The FED is the market. They are controlling everything. It is the furthest thing from a free market I've ever seen.
You are right about this. And once everyone is finally convinced that the Fed won't let the market go down, well then you know. It's crash time.
No way cuz I just read this: "At Birinyi Associates, it’s a 1,700-point S&P 500 Index SPX +0.37% sometime later this year, according to the money management and research firm’s March 2012 Reminiscences newsletter."
So there you have it, SPX 1700 this year. I read it on the internets so it must be true. Sorry.
Hilarious how Uncle Ben's comments yesterday, put huge pressure on bonds.
Most bond ETF's are now at "Do or Die" levels.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=72197115
Bonds and equities are all toppy, just like sovereign governments and central banks.
The only things that aren't are precious metals and oil.
Funny how tangibles win out eventually.
Did you enjoy the little time out?
I have heard this story for several years now. While it would be about time and welcome, I do not wish to hold my breath any longer, nor "bet" accordingly. Another Morgan Peace Dollar, please.
Make it a double for me
All prepped up and nowhere to go.
great line:
The cliche is "don't fight the Fed;" there is no need to "fight the Fed" because they're busy self-destructing, and all we have to do is watch.
Bullish!
Wrong. A central bank absolutely will force you to spend. It won't be terribly productive. In fact, it will create terrible misallocations of capital and ultimately lower standards of living than a sound money would.
But they will create full employment. That part is easy. Real production will elude them.
1920'2 part II. Same outcome.
War creates full employment also. If we create enough inflation the economy and make real wages 50 cents a hour everyone will have a job. Woopi! Fun, fun, joy, joy.
Bring back Stalin.
All the central banks of the world will print more money sooner or later. Buy gold and silver as a long term investment. It's bound to go up over time.
Gold and silver PROTECT your wealth, not increase it.
..."Guest Post: If The Market Rolls Over Here...."
Well, golly gee, I wonder if Ben has already thought of that.
The Bernank is telling CONgress that the recession will not affect the potential for long term growth.
So...nearly $16 Trillion in open debt and over $65 Trillion in shadow debt and unfunded liabilities will not affect the potential for long term growth?
Ben, how long have you been sitting on that mushroom with the hookah smoking caterpillar puffing and puffing while flirting with Alice?
I think someone filled Bens hookah with CRACK!
The iPad 3 will save this economy
Considering the economy is bleeding so badly, you might have something there.
an iPad isn't really a pad, see....
Is this one going to be the promised 'chocolate' flavored one? All of my olds one have tasted like plastic.
It is different this time. We have no real savings. Adjust your drop target by another 50%.
So basically we're on the edge of the highest cliff in the world, hanging by a thread, and we'll just chill here for another 10 months no problem....YEA SURE!
Actually, I think we are standing on a wobbly ladder on the highest cliff at this point and someone is handing us a gun, a bomb, and a lighter to juggle.
and a spoon...
and an iPad
Yes but for the market to roll over some bag holder has to buy all the shares of Priceline at $640. Who's goin to do that? Eventually the pumpers are going to realize they have nobody to dump to.
Uh, no they don't. The price of PCLN shares could go to $0 if no one wants it and the pumpers would be left with an empty bag.
Shangri-La - The Kinks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4DJ9YUYshE
Ray Davies - genius
Good number, bad number, same bullshit. Data is and will be interpreted and spun to benefit those who have the deepest pockets.
investors? Dont make me laugh. There's no capital market left, central bankers took care of that and simultaneously dealt a death blow to moral hazard. We've all become a bunch of gamblers betting on red or black on a daily basis.
If I judge optimism by how many SUVs and CUVs with negative equity zoom past me and smugly look at my paid for clunker I'd say we are close to peaking, in real terms.
Good one DW,
At the top of the "hoseing" bubble it seemed every teenager was diving a new $40,000 car.... Lets take out an equity loan and buy junior a car for graduation, he might like that new charger.
If you could successfully forever counterfeit $100 bills, would you self destruct? The FED won't self destruct. Neither will "The Market" since, " the main purpose of central banking now is to prevent ordinary markets from happening at all "
That's it in a nutshell.
That's it in one succinct sentence. And not changing any of the players is our affirmation that it is exactly what we want.
Absofuckinlutely!!!
I'd print $100 bills until they stopped taking them (or it became inconvenient to haul truckloads of them to the bar).
There's a hobbit out there crawling through Feddor who's going to put Ben's ring in the volcano. If something can't go on forever, it wont.
Andrew Breitbart dead at 43. Courtesy of a government assist by way of the NDAA?
I loved that guy.
suicided probably.
"if the market rolls over.."
What Market?
What used to be the Stock Market is now a programmed robot that is manipulated by Central Bankers. Why would they program it to roll over?
Bad things would happen to banks if the market rolled. The Central Printing Club does not want that to happen.
Too bad you can't print oil. Or food. Or... You get the picture.
or clean water
But technology will save us from all of that!
/sarc
Faber says in his March report that he expects the market to head down soon...sentiment indicators and insider selling levels are the barometers he's looking at now.
What does a currency adjusted S&P 5oo mean exactly?
If a particular US company earns X% of it's money from exports/overseas sales, isn't that already "adjusted" when expressed in $USD earnings?
I saw the chart and thought why not just show the chart in dollars and then apply perturbations in gold or euros. What are the fudge factors in their calibration basket? On the other hand, if you turn the chart upside down, the standing waves flow logarithmically.
Stop deluding yourselves. Nothing will roll over until the fed liquidity pump is turned off.
This ALGO scouring Bull Shit is getting old!
"...the Fed can't force all the free money into productive investments, nor can it force banks to lend or consumers to spend."
This is precisely what happened in 1930. In an article published April 12, 1930 in the NYTimes, it was warned that the policy then being followed by the Fed of pushing cheap money into bankers' hands was only being used to speculate in the equities markets and for capital appreciation by the banks; the money was not being loaned out to be used for productive purposes or to restart the engines of the economy.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Exactly. Rothbard said the same thing. Providing cheap money does not mean that it will go into productive investments.
Big Ben reminds me of Cartman( Southpark), with that giant satelite dish up his ass. Planet Earth is a "comedy show", for the rest of the Universe! F..king Pathetic!
The market will not crash..it cant....its winow dressing for the Pensions...
But I forsee a desire...a search...a demand for something to invest in that has RETURN......I smell a tulip fiasco..or something similar....not sure yet...but something will pop up and everyone will jump on its bandwagon....it won´t be gold and silver...although they will keep going up as an inflation hedge...the bankers can´t make fees on gold.....so it will be something else....famland....trees...water rights...whatever....
I smell the same old shit. I'd like to see Simon Hobbs on CNBC dress up as a women and lip sink the daily " The European markets are now closing" .
Thats Hot
Is the news positive or is it just that people are ignoring the bad news? Markets top when things are most positive and bottom on the negative. It's almost Easter! Time for this Santa rally to go on vacation.
this is the Casablanca economy. Would you like to go out and work for a living (called real economic growth where capital is put to work, not tied up in paper) or would you rather play the (rigged) wheel at Rick's Casino? of course there is only so much Rick can do for you, and he can be arbitrary about who is allowed to win. In the end Wall Street would rather put it's money down at Ricks than work for a living. If you want to surmise that some of the players are economic fascists (thinking maybe across the pond) you're right, but no one has the upper hand in the Casablanca economy. Rick has no limits as long as other players bring in new money, and where else would they play? and the money in Casablanca is Vichy script, hardly worth what we now call a US dollar. there are other things of course, which all amount to power, letters of transit to Swiss Bank Accounts, and no corporate taxes at all. and with Mitt Romney as the police chief. Obama plays the piano, get it, play it again.
The "Real" Mega-Bears:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Real-Mega-Bears.php
Bear Market Comparisons:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/forecast.html#bear_markets
(these are the points of view of inflationists, not deflationists)
LOL, gotta love the street's twisting of demand destruction. Like Europe and the rest of the debt saturated countries won't affect the US. The US is debt saturated too. Now localities are ramping up taxes and fees and squeezing what's left.
markets, stocks, bonds blah,blah,blah...what an absolute joke.
who gives a shit anymore? anybody with at least 2 neurons firing can see this game is the biggest rake in history.
if only PT Barnum was alive today, he would see just how right he really was.
anyways, oil is about to stake this planned, rigged wreakcovery right to the wall and then maybe the villagers will be a little more inclined to turn to the torch and the pitchfork.
in the meantime I have little doubt another war to preserve the petrodollar for a little while longer is almost ready to be rolled out to the public, 24/7 America, fuck yeah! push button patriotism from behind the safety of your keyboard. meanwhile we will be hearing those dull eyed, soulless MSM types telling everybody how it was necessary to give Iran and Syria to Al-Qaeda in order to save us all from nuclear armageddon. it won't make sense, but people will buy it so long as we are blowing shit up and kicking some uppity brown countries ass.
fun times ahead.
Bernie Madoff was rolling in clover, too, until he wasn't. The truth of our situation will be reflected in our markets, it always has been and always will. The trillions and trillions of dollars involved are just too large to fudge.
The Dow will be at 3,500 before this is done.
One cannot compare Japan's experience with the US now. Japan's problems started while the West generally was in a very strong bull market in the 90s and the Internet bubble. Compare now, where the whole of the West is in massive trouble with debt and Japan is starting to generate more because of its own continuing problems.
This time it is different - it's global.
DavidC
I'll take the ridiculously rising market until late 2013 for 1 Quadrillion Alex!
Ding ding ding...Daily Double!!!
IF Santa Claus showed up at my house this weekend with suitcase full of gold ....
This puppy is catching the bid from hell.
How many times have we had Bernanke warn that this might be the last stimulus(after the most recent stimulus has done its work),for the market to tank and then at some time in the future, the Fed, after all the usual "will they won't they" crap in the media, release another form of stimulus? The market then takes off and everyone thinks "who would have thought that would happen?"
The only thing that surprises me is that it has happened before and it keeps happening and every time it does,people are surprised-wtf?
Until the next time...........
Its all about the mustache rides for Bwarney ...
my classmate's mother makes $84 an hour on the internet. She has been fired from work for nine months but last month her pay was $19551 just working on the internet for a few hours. Read more on this web site ..... http://goo.gl/skBIp
the graph looks very convincing.
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
http://www.cnhedge.com/
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