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Guest Post: I'm Pete And I'm Long. It's Been 36 Days Since I Was Long
Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
I have been very bearish. I fought some strong moves up. I argued why certain things wouldn't work - and by certain things, I mean everything the politicians out of Europe said. I'm not planning on being long for long. On the other hand, rarely have the technicians been so right. They all have said 1120 was support. If we bounced at 1130 or had overnight trading down at 1100 they just ignored that. Well almost everyone said if we broke 1120 we were going to 1080. The fact that we got there in an afternoon, with a bit of help after hours seems too good to be true.
Europe is fracturing, but France, without a doubt is still pushing for a solution. European co-operation weakens with every uptick in the market, but seems to strengthen with every downtick. It just feels like we are due for a bit of a short squeeze scare (or at least something that encourages new weak longs now that these are flushed).
The data has been marginal, but not horrible. When we were at 1200 on SPX I couldn't understand how anyone was willing to pay that given the data. At 1090 I think we are still too high, but am willing to listen to some arguments.
BAC was a disaster again today in terms of stock. I keep thinking that they never guaranteed Merrill Lynch debt. Why they merged the BofA securities unit into the Merrill Lynch name is beyond me, but with FHA, the lawsuits against MER and CFC that dwarf FHA's direct BAC lawsuits. MER also had bigger payments from the AIG bailout than BAC got. With renewed focus on the legacy mortgage business, it seems like there is a chance BAC could figure out a way to ring fence the losses. I would be more confident if they had made the decision to keep the less appealing, but safer, BAC Securities Inc. name, but no point crying over spilled milk or CEOs who made 10's of millions for making bad decision after bad decision. It just seems like there are things that BAC could do to protect BAC shareholders that aren't being given any value right now.
Then there is Morgan Stanley. I do believe there is something behind the scenes causing the big moves in the stocks, bonds, and CDS, but that it is more likely tied to principal investments in China, than exposure to European banks. But, there were people yapping about 1 year CDS, who can't spell inverted yield curve. Where there is smoke, there is often fire, but things rarely fall apart this quickly either, especially when too many people with so little credit experience are all trading based on the lack of information. There are clearly people being told to get out of MS risk and reduce notionals. They are paying 600 bps to buy 1 year protection, because all they can lose is 6%. They know that if they pay 530 to buy 5 year CDS, that they could lose 25% of the notional if it all goes back to normal. Flat to inverted yield curves are a bad sign, but rarely does it happen over just a couple of days, especially with financials who in this day and age have so many "alternative"/"fed based" sources of liquidity.
So I finally got a bit long. It scares me to death. I bought some HYG and XLF and covered all my SPY short. Couldn't decide on DAX. I will be very careful, only bought the things I think could have the biggest short squeeze bid tomorrow, and I do remember that we are only 30 points lower than we hit last Monday. 30 points is rounding error in this market. But we were also at 1185 just a week ago. I'm playing around for a quick bounce. I might be being too cute, but too many of the moves seem ripe for a rebound. I do think, as some smart commenter on ZH pointed out, that 1120 is now resistance rather than support.
Good luck, and thankfully I went against my mother earlier today and sold 1125's :) Remember when 40 points in the SPX actually meant something? Maybe the governments, and the central banks should step out of the markets, stop manipulating every tick, enforce some of the existing rules, stop bowing down at the altar of algo trading, and work on creating a market that humans can understand and take risk in and build for a future.
And I can't help but mention that BRK/A hit 80k back in 1998. It is at 105k right now. That is a 30% total return in more than 13 years. No dividends for shareholders in that time. In that time, every word he utters is broadcast widely. Governments do as he says. Investors pile into his trades after he is already long (only employees get to front run). He owns rating agencies, but then publicly comments on what things should be rated. With all the advantages, the returns, frankly, don't seem that great. Are we as a country, ignoring some people, who may not always be bullish, but at least have been right more often than not in the last 10 years? As a business and a country we should be looking for other oracles, and some of the best out there aren't always positive, but maybe that is what we, collectively need, a harsh dose of reality.
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i think we might get a short squeeze into this AM .. as 1190 is breached while asia gets on the grind.. get em all short and then run it up.. get em all long and run it down.. seems to be the theme
2 words:
Normalcy Bias.
pete....why you bogartin, man...
pass it around...
Goldman Sachs will eat Warren Edward Buffett's lunch. They are the perfect predator. Buffett helped them out, and they will help him out by shorting the F out of his positions.
Word.
It is all about Fed's actions since 2009.
Fed prints, we have a bull (shit)
Fed stays out, we have a bear (reality)
Bunch of government workers, and dumbass execs who are clueless and maybe 5% of private sector workers actually doing something useful to society. All the valuable work/innovation is probably happening in some college science lab by some phD earning $45k /year without benefits. That's the fucked up society we live in.
Aldous.
Your posts are mind expanding, and worthy of one of the prime seats in the lifeboats.
(though any seat in a lifeboat should be considered prime)
BRK.A $36,000?
hey spiral_eyes have you heard of this great website called azizonomics.com?
Oh, for the days when ZH was true to its inspiration
You want to fluff the Socialist, you pay for a room, twerp. If you weren't such an unquestioning fanboy, you just might propose that those poor slave PhDs in the Science Departments would make more than 45k (cough - yeah right) if those glorious institutions of higher learning didn't a) overpay their administrators and coaches, and b) invest so much capital into gender studies, etc. Those poor scientists could also do quite a bit for their reputations if they would leave their politics outside the laboratory door.
Passing out proverbial seats in the lifeboat. It is to laugh.
Tesla was one of, if the greatest innovators of all time and he had all his inventions stolen, copycatted and turned into death machines by the elite while he died a crazy person with zero credit until we realized the genious 50 years later.....things haven't changed much
Yeah but that PhD doesn't wear $3,000 suits nor do they do 'God's Work'. It's like what makes starpower in Hollywood. The suspension of disbelief plus good looks goes a real long way in molding the minds of the starstruck hypnotized masses.
yep...
WORD
I see people writing articles like this on Seeking Alpha. Most of the writers should be seeking a brain. All little Buffett bots or those who think Apple can go to a million.
TRY THIS ONE:
ANONYMOUS HACKER GROUP ATTACING NYSE ON OCTOBER 10, 2011
MARKET CRASH COMING I GUESS!
It seems that the government and Federal agencies enjoy enforcing the law a little bit too much. They instate unjust laws as mindless automatons, blindly following orders with soulless precision.
We witness the Government enforcing the laws that punish the 99% while allowing the 1% to escape justice, unharmed, for their crimes against the people.
We have observed this same Government failing to enforce even the minimal legal restraints of Wall Street's abuses. This Government who has willingly ignored the greed at Wall Street has even bailed out the perpetrators that have caused our crisis.
We will not stand by and watch the system take over our way of life.
We the people shall stand against the government's inaction.
We the people will not be witnesses to your corruption and ill gotten profits.
We will not labor for your leisure.
We will not assist you in any way.
This is why we choose to declare our war against the New York Stock Exchange. We can no longer stay silent as the population is being exploited and forced to make sacrifices in the name of profit.
We will show the world that we are true to our word. On October 10th, NYSE shall be erased from the Internet. On October 10th, expect a day that will never, ever, be forgotten.
Vox Populi, Vox Anon.
The Voice of The People is The Voice of Anonymous.
We are Legion. We are the 99%.
We do not forgive. We do not forget.
Wall Street: Expect us.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz0swK0mpMk&feature=player_embedded
Anonymous are retarded until they actually do something of any significance.
If they actually did crash the market on that day sending our nation and the world into a financial death spiral would that be good enough for you?
They should DO before threatening that way NYSE would not have time to prepare. They are being really helpful via Twitter to support the 99% in #OccupyWallStreet @anonymousirc but this will not help their cause unless they can pull it off.
Pete, try something wet and fresh. You'll feel better.
2 oz Remy Martin VSOP
1 oz Vermouth
Dash Angostura bitters
Shake and strain into a deep Champagne saucer, sit in a comfy chair, then ask yourself, "Is BAC the bad bank, or is The Fed?"
Play the momo with insanely tight stops as a trade. Short long. This fucker's doomed.
you could write anything you want with that avatar
What did he say?
My name is Buck, and I came here to f....
"insanely tight"
I need a drink.
+1 for the buffett bashing. why is the cult of personality such a draw? bieber and buffett both have the same political credibility.
Is Warren gay, too?
Is there any way to judge the redemptions that have been requested by retail investors or 401 K's
the only person who thinks retail investors still have 401k's is bernanke and maybe buffett
I think he/she meant 404
Exactly what I said in late 2008 when I covered my shorts at about this same level. Ahhh, but I did not plan on selling out early in the greatest short trade ever. I certaintly made good money when everyone else was losing, but I left soooo much on the table. Never again!
Sounds like you may learn the same lesson.
Did the same. Too early in, Too early out
That worked out ok for Barney B
We ain't close to the bottom yet. The Fed will make every income choice yield 1% so people will rush to the markets. It might work for a while longer.
Don't fight the tape. And don't fight the Fed. Even Bill Gross learned it hard way.
Everything who think that the Bernank & The Ink Jets are going to save the day this time should move to Egypt, close to Da Nile River.
You'll be much more comfortable baking in the sun, delusional.
I have breaking news for you: Neither The Bernank, nor any other central bankster, has ever "saved the day;" they merely postponed the day of reckoning, which they simultaneously made that much worse, by that old fractional reserve voodoo of conjuring fiatski from thin air and then loaning out to see it leveraged many times over.
The only thing 'The Fed' or any other central banker imbeciles will accomplish by printing at this point is akin to fighting a 5 alarm fire by dousing the 500 foot flames with gasoline or sterno.
Goodnight, Goldman. Sweet dreams, Morgan Stanley. Lots of luck, Jamie Dimon. Don't think too hard, Paul Krugman. Sleep tight, Bernank, and don't let the bed bugs bite.
The last one to leave, would you please turn the lights out on the 30+ year insane, nearly purely credit/debt-fueled fake expansion that racked up an aggregate debt larger than the prior 2000 years did (in REAL DOLLARS), from which we have just now begun to deleverage?
Thanks.
J.M. Keynes on inflation in The Economic Consequences of the Peace (p. 235-6):
i don't believe the unsustainable can be sustained forever, either, who does?
but i'll be damned if this charade has been going on for a lot longer than i thought it would.
Awesome post, Truth!
Except this time the Fed is waiting it out and finan.cials are dependent on not US Fed but Germany and ECB.
I think you have shown perception the door
MORE IMPORTANTLY.. DONT EVER FIGHT GOLD - THE BERNANK
possible wave of hedgefund redemptions until the end of October. More deleveraging, implies more down days
Ha, I'm doin pretty good for my first time around. Converted to shorts on the 28th and been holding since. I'm already laughing to the bank but I'm more than 75% certain that longs got wiped out on the close today in spite of a hard fight, and will not have so much fight in them tomorrow. (and if they do manage a short-threat I'll not be easy to shake off)
Rule 48 tuesday!
My condolences, pete.
Dont get too excited. Now if you're short from 1180ish on the SPX then you should be safe but dont be surprised to see a bounce tues or wednesday. A 100 handle drop in 4 days is pretty steep and we havent any devastating news come out. And of course the payroll data comes out on Friday. If it beats (some indicators have come in somewhat better) then we may see a 3 percent snap back. But by and large absent some 5 trillion dollar global central bank liquidity party being announced I can see the SPX hitting 900's leaving you with some nice gains.
Markets don't move on the news. There is plenty of recent evidence to support this position. Just to cite one example, an earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear fucking meltdown was unleashed upon the world's third largest economy, yet after a blip, the markets resume their rise through the spring. Markets move on a spectrum of hope vs fear. If collective hope is strong, bad news doesn't cause more than a blip in the market. If collective fear is strong, good news doesn't do dick. So, the trick is to figure out the collective sentiment, and when it's turning. People might be getting close to fear exhaustion (not sure if that's a term or not, but I mean it in terms of hope is still in the fight). Or, maybe we dive further before fear loses steam temporarily. Either way, I think we'll hit a near term bottom ths month, and then rally for a couple of months as hope gains the upper hand for a short time. But then, hope runs out of steam, fear takes over, and shortly thereafter, hope dies completely and panic ensues. Just a scenario, but that's how I see it.
No.
Yes!
Fuel is Bernanke Congressional testimony tomorrow. Hints at support (QE3).
We need to get hammered hard at least another week before QE3 rumors have any credibility for a short squeeze bounce.
Europe is uniting, not fracturing. Almost every euromember agreed with the latest package. And the Germans will certainly not leave the eurozone, as Gonzalo Lira argues:
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/10/germany-will-never-leave.html
Merry Christmas.
Merry Christmas Greece, Uncle Germany is actually Santa Claus. You've been good boys and girls, early retirement for everyone!!!
Weeeeee......
Gonzola Lira has been as about as wrong as anyone I can think of (so wrong, in fact, it boggles the mind), and his claim that Europe is "uniting" is as absurd in the face of the most credible evidence available to anyone who chooses to do some sincere due diligence on the matter.
I have no beef with Gonzola, and I never forget that even very intelligent people can make predictions that are wrong, and even sometimes incredibly wrong, but I fear that Gonzola has lost his compass on his "Europe-becoming-more-united" call.
Europe is comng apart at the literal seams, and nothing and no one will put it stop the implosion.
What a crock of shit. Merkels coalition is splitting at the seams Slovakia has yet to vote and its coaltion is split. UK is vehemently against FTT . Greece is at the stage where if it had a snap election nobody would want to take up the reigns. Finland wants collateral. Where do you get this shit from????
I am in tears! LOL !
Do you realize we no longer have meaningful organic growth? After 4 decades of monetarist engineering, we simply alternate between phases of deflation and inflation brought on by the Fed
we did have growth in wars, dumbasses, and debt.
So true, so sucinct
i think this comes from the ny times:
...Some analysts said the sell-off had been set off by news that an exceptionally large number of American pilots had taken an early retirement offer last week and opted for a lump-sum payment on their pension.
are you smarter than an airline pilot?
the more bullish the sentiment on a site as innately bearish as zerohedge, the more likely further declines, imo.
I have been sober for over 2 years now. It's true that my new testosterone inhibitor drug was of invaluable help when I find myself face to face with a a price chart.
I'm pissed. I can't get the two minutes back that it took me to read this blather.
I am confident that the S&P 500 will see the 900s before it sees the 1200s again - if ever.
Pete, go smoke some weed and clear your head.
Ok I'll tell you my position just for sh!ts and giiggles: long fresh drinking water, long productive farmland not in the USA, long wild geese and shot guns. Short on dollars and tobacco. Heavely invested in technology and co-operation. Home brew works too. Go Au, Ag, and Pt. Solar and wind power with a dash of LENR. With a pinch of abiotoic oil too, for taste. Mix it all together for a life full of wonder and amazment.
Sweet mix, I'll take some.
The fuck is this?
I sold some of my SPY puts today for a 200% profit. My overall net gain has been around 40% for the past few months. I use the strong sell-offs to lighten up slightly, but it doesn't seem wise to swing to the other end of the pendulum, just yet.
No one is expecting a crash...it is all expected to be slow and drawn out throughout 2012. About 9,500 in the Dow feels about right.
Are you talking to me? Cause if you are I can beat you to a pulp before you know what happened. Alternatively I could choke you off very slowly. Which would you like? I'm best at the slow choke off.
Are you talking to me? Cause if you are I can beat you to a pulp before you know what happened. Alternatively I could choke you off very slowly. Which would you like? I'm best at the slow choke off.
Do you choke your chicken?
Do you choke your chicken?
he's a dolphin waxer, no a spindle polisher, no a monkey spanker, no a ....
Now that is funny. You remind me of someone...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OnpkDWbeJs
No, the usual way to end their lives (chickens that is ) is decapitation followed by ..... I'll let you imagine the rest.
Keep the noose around your neck and stand on your tippy toes bud, no need to cut your dick off!!!
ok, back on topic..... What about Pete being long, is that why you're choking?
5.5 trillion. That is what unfunded debt has balloned by since 2008. 400 billion in GDP growth. I've long said, and disagree with shills like Buffett, that the growth isn't real. When there has been a trillion dollars in income growth but 80% of that is via transfer payments on unfunded deficit spending and lower taxes, judging the economy by GDP or rail shipments is like judging Enron to this day by their income statement without a nary a mention of the balance sheet or statement of cash flows....
Take away the punch and we'll know when the clock strikes midnight.
Hi Pete.
Buy and hold. If you bought BAC 20 years ago you'd be down 40%
I don't see a bottom in this market yet. There is no panic selling. I see a market driven lower by a gradual loss of confidence and increasing uncertainty as more people conclude that TPTB are indecisive and hopelessly split on how to proceed. The debt ceiling clusterfuck and the Greek/Euro crisis showed that our Government and the EU are paralyzed by political disunion and indecision. It's total risk off now as investing now is like walking in a minefield.
I'm Smithovsky and I'm also long. It's been a while since I was long. But as of last night, I am. And now I'm scared. Not sure why I did it - I guess the temptation was just too great. But now regret and guilt have set in; I realize that I've just undone months of hard work. The road back to 666 runs through a dark, scary forest where danger lurks around every corner. But my head is clear now, my longs must go. The dreaded October is upon us and the winter will be long and cold. My golden blanket will keep me warm.
It's been even longer than 36 days for me. Wait...what were we talking about again? The what? What the hell is a stock market?
"So I finally got a bit long. It scares me to death. "
That's always a good sign you're right.
Everybody talking about more QE is missing a minor detail. Buying government debt (aka QE) is supposed to bring down interest rates. That's its stated purpose. How can the Bernank do more QE when IR are already near 0%? I think the markets are on their own for now. Look out below.
Dear Pete, playing for a bounce in a market meltdown is analogous to playing for a decline in a parabolic up move. It's going to happen, but, the timing is guess work and being wrong is very costly.
My last move was about 2 months ago. I bought platinum at $1900. Now it's $1480 trading nearly $200 less than gold. Go figure.
I think DB just commented on taking a hair cut on Greek Debt. More meltage. In 1987 the market samk about 20% before it crashed. Just saying.
This 2008 redux, the European edition, is providing another great opportunity to divest of us dollars. The USA: 15 trillion in debt backed by 350 billion in gold. Not so good.
Hi, my name is bill, and I'm short. I'm feeling pretty good right now.
actually your name is OOOOOWWW MYY HAAAANDDDDSSSSSSS. PLEEAsee someone DO SOMETHING. I'M BLEEDING. I'm bleeding badly, does anyone care? You're laughing? why? oh, please it hurts. OOOWWWwwww. MOMMY it hurts. Oh. I'm getting light headed.
Hey Pete, howz that hopey longey thing working out?
Oooooops
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