Guest Post; The Inception-Style Dream is Collapsing

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Chris Capre of 2ndskiesforex

The Inception-Style Dream is Collapsing

Following the lovely goose egg of a jobs report last week, markets started the week with an Asian Invasion rout led by the Hang Sang down 3%, and the Kospi shedding 4.4%.  The second act of this sonata was Europe getting hammered led by a German Blitzkrieg 1-2 punch with the DAX losing 5.28% but more uniquely, the German 10-yr setting a new record below 2%.  With all these trick-or-treats haunting the markets one has to ask, ‘Is the Ticking Time Bomb Going Off and the Inception-Style Dream Collapsing?’ 

We think so and we will begin by looking to a place that would seem most odd…the institutional players. 

Using the S&P Consolidated data, the Institutional/Asset Mgrs. are long over 409k (net positions).  When was the last time these blokes were this long? Rewind back 3 years and 4 months ago to May 2008.  In May that year, the S&P’s high was 1440.  What did the market do after that?  Collapse to 667.  We are suspecting a repeat here with a Thelma and Louise cliff-dive gap on Tuesday in the S&P weekly charts and likely in the DJIA.  Should the latter one experience a down gap, if history has anything to say about this, a gap will bring some pain with it for over the last 80yrs, the DJIA has gapped 12 times with only one weekly gap being down.  When was that?  June 9th 1930 and the index tanked 21% in 2 weeks.  Could this be the unlucky 13th gap?

Likely so with Europe imploding and growing concerns about a hard landing for China, we see nothing to stop this rout.

One last note…

On Aug. 21st, we posted using our weekly Ichimoku Kumo Break Analysis stating the S&P in the last 8 years has only broken the weekly Kumo 2x, the first time being in 2008 which led to a rougly 800pt drop in the index, and the last time was on the 3rd week in August.  We wrote about the markets possibly doing a small retracement to the 1220 level, and the markets didn’t disappoint…only going 10pts higher, then slamming down over 80pts while failing to close inside the weekly Kumo.  The combination of this rejection at 1230 (also 50% fib of the July 22nd 1350 high to Aug. 12th weekly low at 1107) lining up with a diving Tenkan-Sen (momentum-line) and a failure to close inside the Kumo suggests the original break was legitimate and the markets should easily touch down on the yearly lows.  Any break of these lows and we suspect this will shatter any remaining thoughts from the butane-inhaling bulls thinking the last rally was the real slim-shady.

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rajat_bhatia's picture

Fuck  You!!! Do something Good instead of enjoying the ruin of billions of unknowing people

smlbizman's picture

who untied his hands and feet?

Pure Evil's picture

Damn, Rat-Raj, that's the biggest downtick I've seen, not even old Swarmy Wanker was able to evoke as much wrath.

I guess you're just pissed cause you got dick slapped on your gold shorts and decided to extract your revenge on poor ole ZH.

But so far, judging by the comments, it looks as if you're getting dick slapped once again.

Getting dick slapped once in the (gold) shorts, shame on you, getting dick slapped by ZH'ers for an effeminate post, that's priceless.

Plus, I downticked you because you forgot to use Bitchez!. Common practice on ZH for top spot guy to end comments with Bitchez!

moldygoat's picture

Is trying to educate the "unknowing" not a good thing?

I was one of the billion until zerohedge.

A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000's picture

How is this a bad thing for billions of people? I heard that only 1% of Americans own stock. Fuck them.


Oh wait, now I remeber. When they lose money in the stock market their Soylent Green venture becomes financially viable.


Come on Dow 36,000!

Enceladus's picture

Can't wait til u make good on the morphine promise.

rajat_bhatia's picture

So i imagine you're hoping to live a reall comfortble life in the future, eh? What are you? a Rothschild? Or have u got a nuclear bunker custom built? What makes you so assured?

decon's picture

Who told you you could leave the front porch?  Trust me Rajat, these beatings will make you a better person.

surfersd's picture

Raja 17 weeks ago you didn't know ZH existed. Take your crude mundane comments and go away.

A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000's picture

May I suggest


They are always looking for infomed commentary. And perverts.


Wait, that's wrong. I shouldn't call a pedophile a pervert. I should save that term for Jamie Dimon.

nodhannum's picture

A pedophile? Isn't that someone who likes to ride bikes?

A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000's picture

I think they like to have sex with bicycles.


But who am I to judge?

falak pema's picture

you judging bikes or velophiles?

mtomato2's picture


Thomas's picture

I once slipped off the pedal and had sex with my bike.

falak pema's picture

Raja means "king" in indianese...and kings "know" all! 

NoClueSneaker's picture

...especially Raja Merv ?

( He dodges the spotlight ... )


StychoKiller's picture

Alleviate some suffering:

There are multitudes out there that are worse off than you.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

The're going to continue the shock threapy till your moral improves...

Toolshed's picture

What makes me feel so assured? My fresh stockpile of guns and ammo of course! I don't need no stinkin' gold!!!

Problem Is's picture

The 9th Rule of Fight Club:
Newbies have to STFU and read their first 26 weeks...

Mr. rajat_ass-hat 17 weeks and 4 days...

RockyRacoon's picture

You don't get to make new rules.....


1st RULE: You do not talk about FIGHT CLUB.

2nd RULE: You DO NOT talk about FIGHT CLUB.

3rd RULE: If someone says "stop" or goes limp, taps out the fight is over.

4th RULE: Only two guys to a fight.

5th RULE: One fight at a time.

6th RULE: No shirts, no shoes.

7th RULE: Fights will go on as long as they have to.

8th RULE: If this is your first night at FIGHT CLUB, you HAVE to fight.

AustriAnnie's picture

If the billions of unknowing people had been reading what was available online back in 2003 and since, instead of watching American Idol, they would be in a different situation now, wouldn't they?  Education is free.  The people screaming the loudest now are the people who were the most greedy when the market was on the way up.  This website, however, makes every effort to educate people, so they'll stop acting like the sheeple that they are.  Unfortunately, this mess will occur again in the future, as it has for centuries, because people refuse to learn and always think they'll somehow get something for nothing.  If the people are "unkowning" it is by their own choice.  Tyler Durden and MANY others have been warning that all this would come to pass for a long time.  But the people will learn one way or another.  Either by reading and educating themselves, or by experience.

"Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other."

Overflow-admin's picture




"Wise men are instructed by reason;
Men of less understanding, by experience;
The most ignorant, by necessity;
The beasts by nature."
Letters to Atticus[?], Marcus Tullius Cicero

falak pema's picture

He brought the beast out of Mark Anthony who sent his hit man to execute him; precisely because Cicero was the most reasonable, eloquent man in Rome. His rival Caesar, must have been very ignorant as the Ides of MArch proved. He crossed the Rubicon thinking it was necessary to save Rome. It lost Rome its Republic, but then his successors did have a great time for three hundred years as top dogs. 

Swings n roundabouts..."Wisdom is for fools who don't know how to act with a well placed Gladius."

I bet you don't know who said that!...

Conchy Joe's picture

Yep - I've read Zero Hedge and other (lesser) sites for a years and even I got it. While I don't understand some of the finance lingo used here, I do understand the basics of finance and more importantly mass balance. This deepening mess was all very predictable 5 years ago. The only thing that was a suprise to me was the government just printing money on the scale that they did. I wasn't aware that a country could do that and not have all of the people that hold their debt and their dollars raise hell.

Now that the presses have been running - our system seems to be on life support, artificially alive, waiting for an event or series of events to push it one way or another.

The only question I have anymore is when the event will be and which way will it push things for America.

Is there a benefit to the elite to crush the middle/working class in the major countries? I want to go with the rational answer of "no". That's what keeps me sane.

mtomato2's picture

"Mass Balance..."
Like it, gonna use it. Thanx.

Herd Redirection Committee's picture

"Is there a benefit to the elite to crush the middle/working class in the major countries? I want to go with the rational answer of "no". That's what keeps me sane."

Well, its time to get acquainted with the reefer, because you are going to need a new way to stay sane.  The elite, the rich, the 1%, the Billionaire's Club, whatever you want to call it, is making a big move to solidify and cement its existence (at the top of the pyramid, as it were).  In the long term it will fail.  What happens between here and there, we will see.

macfly's picture

rajat_bhatia, you are an idiot, if you don't like what you can learn here crawl back into your happy little CNBC bunker.

Reptil's picture

What a stupid comment. ZeroHedge is one of the few places where warnings were posted we're on the wrong track.

No one knows how this is going to develop, but shooting the messenger is about the dumbest thing you can do: typical sheeple comment.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Hey rajat bhai, why don't you share the good you are doing? That will set the right tone. Else, you are just moaning.


Durrr's picture

You speak about the billions as if they all were long in stock with their life savings when in fact the billions have been having their life maintained in a ruined state at the hands and benefit of the top 1-5%.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Another ignorant sheep has been awakened.  Why don't YOU do some good fucknut and recognize that there are NO guarantees regarding your survival.  Why don't you start by educating andf improve yourself and your community every day.  Turn off the fucking T.V.

It is ZH's fault?  How fucking stupid are you - straight out of the movie Idiocracy, go back to baitn' you idiot.

MFL8240's picture

If you are stupid enough to still be in this market with no growth in the US, Europe or Asia and the ponzi game with this Federal Reserve, you did it to yourself.

Count Laszlo's picture

Drama! It's not the end. Not even close. And there will never be an end. Stop yapping and start trading.

zen0's picture

The pending collapse has been pending forever it seems. It is all suspense and no payoff. Too much foreplay already.

Count Laszlo's picture

It's financial propaganda to spread fear among "the citizens" as a form of control. This entire crisis is nothing more than a diversion for political control.

zen0's picture

It might work if the masses knew there WAS a crisis, but they don't.

NFL starts Thursday.

Simon Endean's picture

In defense of the masses, they have little reason to know that there is a crisis.  The gummint isn't acting like it, the banks aren't acting like it, the media is telling them there isn't, and the masses themselves are too busy dealing with the micro situation (which is bad enough) to spend much time digging around into the macro.

gwar5's picture

Agree. The average person is too busy just trying to put food on the table and they put too much trust in a corrupt system. They wait until they see the red flags from the MSM to alert them to approaching disaster. TPTB propaganda works.


Helix6's picture

I predict another "historic investment opportunity" for insiders is on the horizon.  Just gotta make sure the sheep are well and truly panicked...  No wonder they call it "fleecing"...

See, here's the gig.  By the time the DJIA hit 12,500, all the sheep were worried about being left behind, so they tiptoed back in.  I wonder who was selling back then?  Now  time to throw the HFT algos into reverse and unleash horrifying predictions of economic doom.  Those sheep will start dumping at about 8900 on the Dow if history is any guide.  In the meantime, a little shorting for fun and profit. 

God I love those 401Ks!  Nothing like throwing 25 million amateurs into the shark tank.  And with our banker buddies now paying out 0.0000000002% on savings accounts while inflation rides at about 10%, what other choice do these newbies have besides equities?  Especially since gold and silver aren't in the plan? 

"Bloodbath" doesn't even begin to describe it.  Shit, this is so easy it's almost lost its challenge.  Although now that I thing about it, separating people from their money is never that boring...

falak pema's picture

political control of ...

peak starvation?

peak fiat devaluation?

peak civilization implosion?

peak gold spiking?

I love diversions but kid me not!


X.inf.capt's picture

be careful what you wish for, brother, SHTF,(been there, done that) its NO JOKE in the thick of it,trust me

Ag Tex's picture

Amen!  Peaceful and still is a good thing.  Keep stacking in the meantime.

ihedgemyhedges's picture

"Too much foreplay already." Now I know that you are not a female................................................

topcallingtroll's picture


You havent met my wife.

She likes it fast with minimal foreplay. You would think that would be great, but we older guys need that foreplay even with viagra. It is very limp-inducing to know the woman gives you only five minutes before she wants it in her and starts getting impatient.

You better be hard now, dammit!

falak pema's picture

you sound like you need a scotch on the rocks and an electric shock on the crotch.