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Guest Post: It's Not Just Gasoline Consumption That's Tanking, It's All Energy

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Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

It's Not Just Gasoline Consumption That's Tanking, It's All Energy

It's not just gasoline consumption that's declining--petroleum and electricity consumption are also dropping. Is that indicative of economic growth?

A number of readers kindly forwarded additional data sources to me as followup on last week's entry describing sharply lower deliveries of gasoline. (Why Is Gasoline Consumption Tanking? February 10, 2012)

The basic thesis here is that petroleum consumption is a key proxy of economic activity. In periods of economic expansion, energy consumption rises. In periods of contraction, consumption levels off or declines.

This common sense correlation calls into question the Status Quo's insistence that the U.S. economy has decoupled from the global ecoomy and is still growing. This growth will create more jobs, the story goes, and expand corporate profits which will power the stock market ever higher.

Courtesy of correspondents Bob C. and Mark W., here are links and charts of petroleum consumption, imports/exports, and electricity consumption. Let's start with a chart of total petroleum products, which includes all products derived from petroleum (distillates, fuels, etc.) provided by Bob C. The chart shows the U.S. consumed about 21 million barrels a day (MBD) at the recent peak of economic activity 2005-07; from that peak, "product supplied" has fallen to 18 MBD. The current decline is very steep and has not bottomed.

This recent drop mirrors the decline registered in 2009 as the wheels fell off the global debt-based bubble. Those arguing that the U.S. economy is growing smartly and sustainably have to explain why petroleum consumption looks like 2009 when the economy tipped into a sharp contraction.

 

A link of interest from Mark W.: Montly U.S. Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels per Day) showing gasoline "product supplied" from 1945 to 2011. This shows gasoline has declined about 700,000 barrels per day from 2007, from 9.2 MBD to 8.5 MBD in November 2011. This represents about a 13% decline.

A number of readers wondered if gasoline imports might account for lower domestic shipments. That is a good question, and Bob C. found the answer in other EIA (U.S. Energy Information Agency) charts.

Weekly U.S. Imports of Total Gasoline (Thousand Barrels per Day)

Weekly Imports & Exports of Petroleum and Other Liquids (Thousand Barrels per Day)

Exports of Petroleum and Other Liquids

Here we see that of 8.5 million barrels a day of gasoline supplied, roughly 500,000 barrels are imported. In other words, the percentage of imported gasoline is modest.

 

 

The U.S. imports and exports petroleum products, but the net result is imports of around 8 million barrels a day. The U.S. imports about 10.5 MBD and exports almost 3 MBD for a net import total of 7.5 MBD. The secular decline in net imports from the 2006 top is consistent with the view that consumption has declined as a reflection of economic activity.

Mark W.also forwarded these charts of Electrical power consumption. Not only has electrical consumption never recovered the levels of mid-2008, it peaked in mid-2011 and has begun a sharp decline in late 2011.

 

 

I marked recent recessions on a long-term chart of electrical consumption to show that the deep recession of 1981-83 barely registered, while the recessions of 1990-91 and 2000-2002 are essentially noise.

 

 

That makes the secular decline from 2006 peaks all the more striking. (It is perhaps no coincidence that the housing bubble peaked in 2006-07 along with the extraction of home equity craze.)

Clearly, electrical consumption is in a downtrend with no recent historical precedent. Those claiming that U.S. growth is sustainable and the Dow is heading for 15,000 must square their rosy projections with sharply declining energy consumption. The two simply don't match up.

As a lagniappe, here is a link from correspondent Joel M. on downward revisions to shale oil estimates. This injects a note of realism in the recent euphoric depiction of the U.S. as having essentially boundless supplies of petroleum equivalents. Substantial, yes, virtually unlimited, no.

Shale gas estimates continue downward: Energy Bulletin.

 

 

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Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:27 | 2162111 RKDS
RKDS's picture

I caught what's starting to look like the very tail end of that.  After I got my license, I did take some trips through the local countryside just to drive.  Gas was $1 per gallon, right about where it had been since I was 10.  Prices rose a bit through my college years, but it was still cheap enough to drive home every other weekend for a job an hour away.

It was about 2004/2005 when I started to see that change.  As gas neared $2 per gallon, I was cutting back on shopping, but Katrina really put the brakes on everything for me.  One conversation that stands out as a contract between people who get it and people who don't.

I was still working that part time job circa 2005/2006 and my brother, who also worked there, was off at his first year of college about three hours away.  Company policy was that kids had to work once a month to stay on the payroll and he was doing that.  The store manager just didn't understand why he couldn't come home every weekend.  As it was he'd get about 8 hours at $7 before taxes and it'd take about $50 round trip in gas.  Frankly it should've been obvious that he was only coming home as often as he did so he wouldn't have to look for a job every May.

Many kids do minimum wage work if they can even get it and it has not kept up with the increase in gas prices.  Even people with "real" jobs are watching the miles they put on their cars more closely than they have in a long time.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:59 | 2157500 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Maybe the sales of Priuses are way up? Nissan Leaf? Or maybe the people's run out of money?

If rethuglicans were smart, which they're not, they would let all of Odumbo's spending plans pass. Let's get it over with and crash this sucker so we can have a do-over

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:11 | 2157557 brewing
brewing's picture

re-boot this bitch...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:19 | 2157597 trav7777
trav7777's picture

unfortunately, all the king's horses and men can't print up more oil supply.

WTF is a "reboot" going to accomplish?  Unless you mean we shed 3 or 4 billion people.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:33 | 2157676 j0nx
j0nx's picture

sigh

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:57 | 2157774 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Growth springs eternal - A 900ft tall Invisible Hand told me so in a vision.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:45 | 2158037 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I saw that same hand spanking the shit out of a piggy bank.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:53 | 2159349 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

that's why I prefer the 50 foot woman

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 20:16 | 2159881 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Those 3-4 billion use very little energy per capita.  It wouldn't change the PO equation in any meaningful way.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 22:14 | 2160222 Matt
Matt's picture

Including the food they eat? Are you sure they are not producing food using modern agricultural techniques, or importing it from countries which do?

I mean, if the people of MENA were growing all their own food using traditional methods, how would USD devaluation affect their food prices? After all, wasn't rising food prices a major trigger for the Arab Spring?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:59 | 2157501 Putty
Putty's picture

"This shows gasoline has declined about 700,000 barrels per day from 2007, from 9.2 MBD to 8.5 MBD in November 2011. This represents about a 13% decline."

Much closer to an 8% decline.

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:00 | 2157505 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Is it just me, or do the electricity stats up to 2008 look "artificially limited"? Has US elec. demand actually been saturating electricity production?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 22:49 | 2160333 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

That caught my eye as well because it does resemble saturation.

It turns out that the chart type, a bear's eye view chart (BEV), defines the reference line of zero to be the last all-time high. This means that all dips in the chart are reductions since the last all time high, which is again, on the reference line of zero. It's a kind of moving reference point graph, meant to highlight any moves down on a yoy basis. He has an older article that shows the same data series from 1930-2010, and it clearly shows that from 1947-1979 the line barely moved below the reference, indicating that for every year in this interval, energy production exceeded that produced in the previous year. (i.e. real growth in energy terms) He also does a 52 week moving average to smooth the data by eliminating seasonal variations. This makes it easy to see the long-term trend, and it's clear that we have definitely moved into new territory. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:00 | 2157506 FrankThinkTank
FrankThinkTank's picture

PEAK OIL OH NOEZZZ

More like peak production/consumption. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:20 | 2157602 trav7777
trav7777's picture

huh??

You DO understand that peak oil MEANS peak production, right?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:33 | 2157677 j0nx
j0nx's picture

sigh

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:58 | 2157800 Spastica Rex
Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:27 | 2157958 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

we're off to see the wizard ...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:21 | 2157929 tmosley
tmosley's picture

If the government shuts down new exploration and production, it's PEAK OIL!!!!!  The government was doing the best it could, but those dumb minorities made the the oil peak, now death :(

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:24 | 2157946 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

There's never a "peak" in anything. There's always more somewhere. What God wants, God gets; God help us all.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:14 | 2158755 trav7777
trav7777's picture

incidentally, the government is overpopulated with minorities far beyond their share of the population.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:09 | 2159115 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yeah, stupid minorities!  Nothing to do with a fundamental flaw in ideology.  Nothing whatsoever.  That's why Europe, which is ruled by whites and jews at all levels, is perfectly fine.  The superior japs are doing well too.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:10 | 2159409 trav7777
trav7777's picture

yeah, both of those societies are doing pretty ok.  Like I said, I was just in iceland, dude.  The whiteys you hate so much are doing pretty ok maintaining the civilizations they created.  Japan is continuing in an orderly manner...they hit the supply side wall about the same time as Detroit went majority black or South Africa was handed over.  Where the fuck would YOU rather live, idiot?

Islamified europe has some burgeoning demographics issues.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:04 | 2157514 Yikes
Yikes's picture

deleted

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:05 | 2157526 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

The central component in a car's engine these days is a printing press. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:03 | 2157519 5880
5880's picture

I just don't get it,

why is demand low and prices high?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 15:39 | 2158559 unnamed enemy
unnamed enemy's picture

to maximize profits ???

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:17 | 2158769 trav7777
trav7777's picture

moron, sorry...you're an idiot.  Now that we've got that out of the way, let me explain.

XOM and the other oil majors are not particularly profitable.  Their ROIs are pretty well BELOW the SP500 average.

They might make $10B on $500B in sales.  And they don't set prices at any rate as the state-owned oilcos are ridiculously larger.  The thing keeping oilco execs up at night is not just the impossibility of replacing reserves that they have depleted but hanging onto existing reserves.  OXY lost 3% of global reserves and 9% of annual production when Ecuador decided to nationalize energy assets and booted them out.  This is why companies like Encana have given up totally on foreign production.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 22:22 | 2160249 Matt
Matt's picture

OPEC does have minimum targets for oil price, without certain levels of appeasement, the masses rise up in revolt, so it must be a factor with some weight behind it.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:05 | 2157523 wavegenius
wavegenius's picture

List of World's Top 5 and 5 Worst Elliotticians

http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/02/09/my-list-of-the-top-5-elliotticians-...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:06 | 2157536 alexwest
alexwest's picture

MOST IDIOTIC CHARTS I EVER SEEN.

why is it so hard load weekly data into EXCEL and built 1,3,6 month average?

alx

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:07 | 2157540 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

"Not only has electrical consumption never recovered the levels of mid-2008, it peaked in mid-2011 and has begun a sharp decline in late 2011."

 

How is this decline possible with all of the newly purchased Big Screen TVs in operation?  

 

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/06/29/1182624165361.html

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:11 | 2157558 Rynak
Rynak's picture

It has absolutely nothing to do with it. Because flatscreens consume a fraction of the power, of earlier TVs and monitors.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:25 | 2157635 frostfan
frostfan's picture

I think it's the opposite actually.  These new TV's and all the gizmos and pixels require more, not less energy.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 23:10 | 2160398 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

Fox news watcher?

Energy consumption in electronic devices of all types has decreased, not increased over the years. Twenty years ago, power consumption wasn't even a design parameter unless you were designing a battery-operated device, or you were worried about fires from excessive dissipation. Do you have any idea how much energy is required to heat a CRT cathode to achieve thermionic emission? Contrast this with the miniscule amount of energy required to polarize LCD crystals to achieve the same end function.

I don't suppose you have any, you know, evidence, to back up your claim?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:28 | 2157647 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

The facts seem to indicate that you are incorrect. This from a 2010 CNET article:

"Big, flat-screen HDTVs use more power than you might imagine. Now that old tube televisions are starting to disappear, replaced by much larger plasma and LCD-based HDTVs, TV watchers everywhere may be noticing an uptick in their electricity bills."

http://reviews.cnet.com/green-tech/tv-power-efficiency/

While the latest gear is as much as 50% more efficient, there's still a lot of Plasma type TVs in operation and some models selling now can't get Energy Star ratings due to high power consumption.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:04 | 2157810 Rynak
Rynak's picture

What i meant is that flatscreens do - for a given screenspace - consume a fraction of what tubes consume. Of course, if you go from a tiny tube TV, to a giant flatscreen, that advantage is lost. Plus, as you implied, there are still some TFTs with tube backlights in circulation, when the newer LED backlights provide much better contrast at much lower power consumption.

You may hate flatscreens because of their social status, cultural implications, usage of rare earth materials, and a few other things.... but hating flatscreens because of power consumption, is about the most stupid and clueless argument anyone could bring up about them. And yep, that also goes for that one junk of my post above: clueless idiot.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:24 | 2157945 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

It's a waste of time to hate any major appliance. Also a waste of time and energy to worry about a down arrow on ZH.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:07 | 2157541 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

although i don't believe that energy efficiency can account for a great deal of the consumption decline, it would be interesting to see numbers which show annual and cumulative savings from efficiencies...

i have to think that the enormous investment in efficiency over the past 15 years (and all of that green crap) have had a palpable effect on energy consumption....

if so, then the decline in energy consumption may not be a good proxy for economic activity....even a 10% improvement would account for a significant share of the decline...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:09 | 2157546 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

10,000,000 houses sitting empty, and rotting, take up a lot less energy than 10,000,000 houses being taken care of. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:12 | 2157574 alexwest
alexwest's picture

most idiotic proposition I ever heard.. bar none..

HOW ? HOW IS IT POSSIBLE to calc 'numbers which show annual and cumulative savings from efficiencies'??

and also my dear 'Einstein' please bear in mind that USD POPULATION IS YET GROWNING.. so nominal usage of oil/energy MUST GROW CAUSE more people are living, working, eating and blubbering endlessly on inet..

alx

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:00 | 2157808 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

And Jevons paradox.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:20 | 2157918 We need Geronimo
We need Geronimo's picture

That would be "GROANING"... 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:08 | 2157544 ss123
ss123's picture

iToys are very energy efficient... and shiney.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:09 | 2157547 homer8043
homer8043's picture

The electricity use decline is not surprising and not completely indicative of decline. Buildings and industrial processes are getting efficient at a fast enough rate that even in a slow growth environment, electricity consumption would go down. That said, the electricity consumption doesn't point to fast growth either.

Petrolieum is another matter. The drop is gasoline use is beyond marginal efficiency gains and points to something dark. It started falling off a cliff in September, recovered, and fell off a cliff again to start the year. This is even accounting for seasonality. And it has been trending down for 5 years, even beyond marginal efficiency gains.

This means two things. One, the economy is in worse shape than we are led to believe. Two, oil supply is more constrained and expensive than we are led to believe. All bullish.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:30 | 2157613 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I doubt increased efficiency due to technological is a significant factor for the decline. Most energy "efficient" technologies make no financial sense, unless you use them for +20 years without paying anything for upkeep (yeah right).

This decline is people doing less.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:25 | 2157630 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Led to believe by whom?  Sorry, man, but between here and TOD, there are tons of people who are educated and intelligent who have clued you guys in as to what is going on for years now.  This should come as no surprise.

I've been talking about the oil peak since like 2003 on various forums.

This is the new normal.  The economic theories don't make sense anymore because, as I said, they are predicated upon a climate of aggregate expansion.  We're not in that climate any longer.

If you are capable of reason, any of you...for a moment, just "pretend" like peak oil is real.  For the sake of argument or a thought experiment.  Everything that you're seeing right now would be a necessary consequence.

When you have a potential cause and ALL of the symptoms flow from that cause and you see all of those symptoms, that is highly probative that the potential cause is in fact the real cause.  Not some sinister illumilateral conspiracy to kill everyone and not earn interest off of them.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:28 | 2157648 homer8043
homer8043's picture

Metaphorical "we" between the MSM and general public. I like most here know the official stats are a fantasy that will come apart sooner rather than later.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:41 | 2157708 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

@trav

Ok, not arguing but just asking: what do you make of the Russian "Super Deep" Oil wells? They are drilling at 45,000 feet and pumping black gold.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:53 | 2157773 trav7777
trav7777's picture

i don't give a crap about where oil comes from or how much reserves are out there.

ALL that matters is production RATE.  I don't know how I can be or could have been more clear on this point the other million times I said it.

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:33 | 2157988 tmosley
tmosley's picture

"Nothing matters, we're all going to die."

Trav's philosophy in a nutshell.  

Say anything that could possibly be construed as going against that idea, and prepare for a face full of spittle.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 14:32 | 2158241 trav7777
trav7777's picture

You are nothing if not stupid

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:12 | 2159128 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You are nothing.

End of sentence. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 14:21 | 2158183 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

@trav

Hey, tough guy. It was just a question. I learn what I can from wherever I can. So if you don't like people asking you questions, then maybe don't answer them.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 15:42 | 2158513 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

What exactly did you expect from the guy who pictures himself as a smarmy smiley-face giving you the bird? Trav's avatar is very descriptive, yes?  OTOH, you could have done far worse asking someone other than Trav your question, on this subject anyway.

You'll want some thicker skin if you expect to learn anything around here. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:20 | 2158795 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I don't mind the question, Seize.  However, this is about the...1000th(?) time I've been asked it.

I apologize for being derisive and next time I will wait until I inevitably see you post the SAME question again because you cannot stomach the answer I gave the first time.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:04 | 2157832 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

good example of massiveily reduced energy return. It used to be just under the surface, we now gotta go 45,000 feet down...or experiment with pressure we can't seem to control in the Gulf of Mexico...or convert Tar Sands and endanger lots of stuff for a radically reduced return...etc, etc, etc.....

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:34 | 2157995 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What happens when a technology is developed that allows bitumen to be stripped from tar sands with very little energy input?

http://www.matse.psu.edu/news/ionicliquids

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 14:33 | 2158254 trav7777
trav7777's picture

WE'RE SAVED!!!!!!!!!!!1

all because of ONE experiment on ONE limited scale in ONE lab in ONE university!!!!!

You fucking retard.  You're like those cornucopians bleating about how they made a milliliter of oil from some GMO algae and so we're ALL SAVEZD.

Yeah, Titan has methane.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 15:39 | 2158555 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What, so you are saying that ionic liquids have differnt solvation properties based on their location?

You should write a paper on that and collect your Nobel Prize!

Christ, give it up, man.  This is the weakest argument I have ever seen.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:10 | 2158741 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

and yours is heartening but nascent; so hardly a foregone conclusion.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:24 | 2158815 trav7777
trav7777's picture

no, I am saying 2 things:

1, you're a fuckin idiot!

2, let's wait to proclaim that WE BEEZ SAVEZD until we see some reproducibility of these results ALONG WITH some analysis on how scaleable the experiment in this one beaker was to the real world.

K?  Smoochez, bitch.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:22 | 2159190 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Note that ionic liquids are not the only path forward.  There are hundreds if not thousands.  But you dismiss them all with a wave of your hand.  Fuck, you dismissed solar because the sun would die out one day, and you dismissed fusion because the amount of nickel on Earth isn't infinite.

This isn't about one method or the other.  It is about your idiotic belief that there is no such thing as technological progress, or economic limiting factors.  It is about your overly simplistic view that OIL and OIL ALONE is the end all be all of energy production.  It is about your constant LIES.

But you can't see, because you are blinded by the cognitive dissonance stemming from the conflict between your inflated self worth and your actual situation in life IE you think you are awesome, but everyone hates you and wants nothing to do with you.  As such, you spend all day sticking your nose where you aren't wanted yelling at people about how smart you are and how stupid they are.  It's sickening to deal with you.  You should seek therapy.  Maybe get on anti anxiety meds.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:34 | 2159274 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

People seem to have hope in the Penn State experiments but scaling up seems to be an open question. Different methods are the only thing we CAN and should do but so far, nothing seems to equal the energy return..and we've waited far too long due mostly to corruption and greed. The transition will be difficult and damaging. The envirnomental impact for Tar Sands is still a factor.

 

 

 

"The use of Tar Sands to produce fuel grade oils is economically viable, although hardly an ideal approach to maintaining liquid fuel supplies. The most significant problem is the local and global environmental impact of the extraction processes 

 

 

Tar Sands are unlikely to make a large impact on the overall supply of liquid fuels in Canada because their supply is likely to be rate, rather than resource limited. If the maximum rate could grow to about 2 billion U.S. Barrels a year this would approximately meet Canada?s demand but would leave relatively little for export.

About half of the increased production is necessary to compensate for the decline of existing conventional wells. The growth required may not be achieved if ecological constraints cannot be accommodated by technological development in the Tar Sand processing phase."

 

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:12 | 2159415 trav7777
trav7777's picture

NO YOU JUST WORSHIP BALE

I'll leave your response as adequate to address Cliff's projection

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:34 | 2159535 tmosley
tmosley's picture

We are all awash in an ocean of your inadequacy, Trav.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:37 | 2159545 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Rate limitation is governed by capital investment.  All that is needed is capital, assuming the tech scales, and it sure looks like it would.

But let's all take Trav's advice and dismiss this, and all other technologies out of hand.  Also, let's call each other names if any of us disagrees with one another.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 20:05 | 2159844 trav7777
trav7777's picture

LOL...dumbest thing you've ever said

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 23:12 | 2160406 Matt
Matt's picture

TMOSLEY:

What happens when a technology is developed that allows bitumen to be stripped from tar sands with very little energy input?

----

Without any new pipelines, more efficient production of oil sands will not have a major impact on production rates, IMO.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:09 | 2157548 pstpetrov
pstpetrov's picture

Could somebody do a similar analysis on the Chinese energy consumption? 

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:10 | 2157554 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

XLE is still near all time high.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:10 | 2157555 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Once again, the U.S. is becoming less relevant. What do the numbers look like for the fucking WORLD? They are not declining, lots of folks in mud huts around the world waiting for service. bloody pods.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:26 | 2157636 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the US is taking one for the team here.  If we were still trying to consume 20mbpd, oil would be at $200.

Everyone on the planet wants to drive and burn gas like americans; consumption is wealth.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:50 | 2157758 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I know, I was trading for $200 oil, still waiting to profit on those trades.  Can't be supressed forever, I hope.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:57 | 2157791 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I'm not...the price factor in real terms can't be supported at that level.  At where we are now, the economy grinds down.  If it spikes to 150, we see another 2008, which was an unmitigated crash in consumption.

I am trading for yield compression and trying to find producers out there that can turn what would have previously been shit yields into something that is now bigtime due to depletion.

There are a lot of trades you can make on Keystone for next year. This pipeline is going to happen and you should position accordingly if you are interested in speculation.  If not, just buy KMP or something.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:37 | 2158006 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yes, it would.  But only because we had to print twice as much money to maintain our purchasing power.

But hey, don't let logic, science, or economics rain on your parade.  Let's all do our part and castrate a minority today!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 14:35 | 2158262 trav7777
trav7777's picture

are you fucking stupid?  Sorry, I know the answer is yes.

Science???  You talk SCIENCE then say stupid shit like this?  That if DEMAND went way up that price would only go up because we had to print money?

How can you be so retarded?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 15:40 | 2158568 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Right, because printed money pouring into the economy doesn't stimulate a demand bubble.

You are an incredible failure.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:25 | 2158825 trav7777
trav7777's picture

ROTFL...you call a TEN PERCENT collapse in consumption a DEMAND BUBBLE?

GFD you are stupid...just...stupid.  Inconceivably DUMB.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:32 | 2159259 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Uhh, no, that is the COLLAPSE of the demand bubble.

You need to look in a fucking mirror before you call other people stupid, doofus.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:13 | 2159424 trav7777
trav7777's picture

so then price doesn't collapse when this demand bubble collapses, idiot?

We are printing more money AFTER the crash than before...

GFD, do you even know what DAY IT IS?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:41 | 2159559 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yes, we are printing more money, and it is being squandered on consumption IE it is going to pay for energy.

You fail to see the distinction between a monetary event and a supply event.

Let's normalize the price of oil with gold:

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_-ALAvDkry1k/SZ8VCxxC9II/AAAAAAAAAIw/JoVywSvlLJM/s8...

Wut wo.  FYI, at current prices, it is at 0.06 oz gold/barrel.  Remarkably consistant pricing when measured in real money. 

Now, let's hear some BS where you try to explain it away.  

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 20:06 | 2159847 trav7777
trav7777's picture

gold production peaked 10 years ago.  idiot

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:12 | 2157562 harrycarey
harrycarey's picture

I parked my 400hp Camaro in the garage last year and bot a 150cc scooter that gets 80 miles to the gallon...Love it! I ride it all over town.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 13:22 | 2162386 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Scooters are like fat girls: they're great fun to ride until your friends see you on one. (jk, oooold joke. It sounds like you're tryin'; nice.)

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:17 | 2157586 alexwest
alexwest's picture

no need no fancy charts..

according own numbers from B(l)S, there are 108+ mln private jobs and 45+ mln on food stamps.

THINK ABOUT FOR EACH 2 WORKING ADULTS , THERE 'IS ONE ADULT
WHO IS NOT WORKING OR MAKING 5$ PER HOUR in Mc(Shit)Donalds.

alx

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:20 | 2157592 Racer
Racer's picture

Inflation in all things that the poor need to exist... so they have to cut back because they can't afford it because their real incomes have declined unlike the rich banksters who feel no pain because essentials are a small part of their massively rising income

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:19 | 2157596 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

The giant vampire squid has sucked all the life-force and enegy out of the world! Just a friendly reminder from your friends at GS, doing GOD'S work, devouring one sovereign country at a time...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:20 | 2157603 Gazooks
Gazooks's picture

yeah, like who knew equity, bond or commodity prices could be pushed any fuckin direction daboyz wanted?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:28 | 2157604 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

I wish we could go back to the mid 1970's.. I think that's where we are headed. There's too many people, too much 'stuff', too few real jobs. ie  Wearing a Red Shirt and Tan khakis. But right now I have on a Blk polo shirt and tan khakis.

 

I like to go into the local Target for amusement.. what a slice of Americana it is, then Take a leak and leave.  They actually think they are something special!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:32 | 2157673 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

I wish we could go back to the mid 1970's..

Bell bottoms, leisure suits, disco music, wide lapels and platform shoes? No thanks.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:26 | 2159222 Archon7
Archon7's picture

The 70s?  Gee thanks, for reminding me... I had done my best to forget...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:23 | 2157612 dr.charlemagne
dr.charlemagne's picture

Recovery! This is obvious. Stocks and energy consumption are inversely correlated! Imagine what the S and P will do when we get to a horse drawn centrally controlled barter economy.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:29 | 2157651 frostfan
frostfan's picture

When you think of it, I wonder how much less electricity is used compared to five years ago with millions of kids on Ipads rather than the old desktop computers.  Also, how much less electricity is used with people using smartphones rather than turning on a computer.

It's not that we're becoming less relevant.  It's just that we're not building houses, we stopped using our gas/oil supplies in Iraq on our forces (which yes, consumed a lot) and on average, the cars, house appliances, lightbulbs, planes and even new houses are getting more efficient and just might be offsetting the population growth. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:43 | 2157717 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

People are being driven to cut back on electricity due to recent rate increases. Since people are getting hit where it hurts, there's a new appreciation for cutting corners on electricity usage. While your poiint is well taken about mobile devices using less power, the larger trend seems to be towards darker houses, cooler rooms in Winter, and switching off any device that doesn't really need to be on. Last Christmas there were very few houses in my area that bothered to put lights up at all.

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:34 | 2157666 Goatboy
Goatboy's picture

Why not make some comparative (among different countries) consumption per capita charts?

Might be telling something about excesive consumption empire's subjects got used to, for no one's benefit.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:31 | 2157667 onlooker
onlooker's picture

Elec did have a 3.5% up from late 2009 to 2012 and a 1.5% down from the peak to 2012. Petrol imports show a decline from peak indicating a lack of consumption but there may be some decline of use because of US manufacturing continuing to go off shore and the increased usage of econo transportation. Suburban’s and dualies are not selling and the construction guys are not driving them to work.

 

If I was the Obam scam man, shuck and jive artist, I think I would tweak these and make use for propaganda.

 

But, the price of fossil fuel continues to rise, inflation no doubt being a factor. Is there a constriction of needed supply with declined import? The OIL DRUM is a pretty good site to look at for oil patch info.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:38 | 2157696 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Wait until more and more people stop trading oil in US Dollars.  Then the price of our gasoline will go through the roof.  It's not just inflation.  We are also on the verge of losing the petro dollar benefit.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:37 | 2157682 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Tgt is desperatley trying to hold onto the lower level consumer, who is spending every last dime on gas and oil.  They have no money to spend on your 'stuff'.  Even the snack bar is empty.. ... help us.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:36 | 2157683 J 457
J 457's picture

I'd like to see a NatGas usage chart alongside the oil usage chart.  Also wonder if domestic coal consumption (minus exports) has dropped.  If domestic use of oil, NG, and coal are all three down, that would indicate we really have some serious contraction.  Or the mild winter could also be playing a significant role. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:36 | 2157686 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Peak Oil? No..Peak Gas Suppied to Americans..YES

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:59 | 2157705 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Peak oil reserves? Perhaps.  Peak oil production? Yes, with various causes.  Peak petro dollar status?  Abso-fucking-lutely.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:40 | 2157700 xcehn
xcehn's picture

For the PTB, false perception is the objective.  Soon the news will be that the celebrated recovery has reached a 'snag.'

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:41 | 2157707 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

very informative post.  thanks!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:45 | 2157731 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

To summarize then:

LOWER

Electricity usage, gasoline and oil, employment, home sales and prices, Presidential and Congressional approval, Baltic Dry index, S&P profits, China and India growth, German and EU Industrial output, US household income and standard of living, developed world birth rates, GDP, weekly unemployment claims

HIGHER

Retail sales, consumer credit card and college debt, US Consumer sentiment, levitating stock market, national debt , German sentiment, Worldwide inflation, gasoline prices, globabl temperatures, avg. age of population, rent cost, cost of natural disasters and crop failures, healthcare costs

Does anyone think it is strange with all the negatives, the market only seems to care about is retail sales not lower, that countries are close to but not officially in recession and that unemployment numbers are improving largely due to falling off the rolls and swapping low value jobs for high ones.  Sentiment is only up because the markets inexplicably move higher on one point: THAT THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF COLLAPSE TODAY...that's it 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:46 | 2157733 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

I would say it's a question of real disposable personal income per capita, but maybe that's just me.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/DPI-overview.html?DPI-per-capita-growth-since-2000.gif

Now, in official inflation-adjusted terms it looks bad.  But if you apply ShadowStats 'real' inflation it's just for shit.

However you measure the inflation it's been down almost every month the past year.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:48 | 2157745 Soar07
Soar07's picture

The unemployed use a lot less energy.

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:38 | 2158009 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Exactamundo.  This is the real issue.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:48 | 2157746 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

 

The 'decoupling' being achieved by central banks is between themselves (including the global elite, their computers and the MSM 'indicators' they all fetishize)...and reality.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:50 | 2157756 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

The other index of use is the Ceridian one:

 

"

Pulse of Commerce Index Dropped 1.7 Percent in January; Compared with Prior Year, the PCI is Down 2.2 Percent

02.14.2012
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., February 14, 2012 The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, fell 1.7 percent in January following the 0.4 percent decrease in December*. January’s data places the PCI 2.2 percent below year-ago...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:08 | 2157857 linrom
linrom's picture

That's what I like to look to look at.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 15:10 | 2158411 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

You'd think that someone here might have commented on it as it is a pretty good indicator of what is going on in the U.S.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:52 | 2157763 Car 54 Where Are U
Car 54 Where Are U's picture

The down turn in electricity usage could be a function of the mildest winter in quite some time.  Authors...isn't this is an important variable?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:59 | 2157806 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

The generators can say when it fell - which hours of the day. Computers and TVs have become big driving forces for electricity usage, especially plasma TVs. It may be usual in the Us to use electricity for heating but it is a really expensive way to heat in Europe. I bet a lot is due to shop lights going out with bankruptcy or cafes and workshops closing.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:05 | 2157838 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

You would think that the mildest winter in many years would have produced an increase in driving (fewer blizzards) and thus relatively higher gasoline consumption. But it hasn't. Hmmmm...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:58 | 2157799 Badabing
Badabing's picture

I’ve noticed the smell of oak wood fires during the cold nights. With the resent hurricane the northeast has experienced a lot of big hardwood trees came down. I’ve been burning hurricane wood also.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:07 | 2157854 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Gasp!!!

You bastard!!

Downed trees provide vital cover for woodland creatures big and small, plus they give nutrients back to the forest--to burn them is like bitch slapping mother nature!!!

You eco terrorist!!!!!!!

How could you!!!!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:12 | 2157890 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Mmmm....smells like....the twelfth century.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:23 | 2159201 Archon7
Archon7's picture

That works great until code enforcement comes along and fines you three months' worth of power bills for failing inspection, not having the proper permits, burning wood in the city limits, and so on...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:23 | 2157936 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

Just think what we'd be paying for a gallon of gas if demand were 'normal'. $3.50 here in the mid-South.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:23 | 2157938 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

Just think what we'd be paying for a gallon of gas if demand were 'normal'. $3.50 here in the mid-South.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:24 | 2157941 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Tin foil hats for all.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:26 | 2157955 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Oil price per U.S. barrel is about$100.00 which is 158.9873 liters.

A one liter bottle of Aquafina water costs $1.68 therefore;

A barrel of water costs $267.01 versus a hundred bucks for oil!

The belief that capitalism will solve the globes economic crisis? Priceless!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:42 | 2158023 falak pema
falak pema's picture

fortunately my care doesn't run on Aquafina! 

But the price of gas in Euro zone is around 1.60 Eur /litre; aka 2.1 USD/litre! 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:39 | 2158019 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the slimming down of USA, who can complain.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:59 | 2158089 brent1023
brent1023's picture

Or, is it possible, remotely possible, that Americans have finally decided to buy more efficient cars and electrical devices? That fuel consumption is down but usage is up?

Nah! You are right. We ARE talking Americans.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 14:12 | 2158146 Dan Conway
Dan Conway's picture

The decline in energy usage is due to alternative energy.  Those chinese made solar panels are very efficient, at least that what my TV tells me.  And don't forget those windmills - they are very efficient except off the coast of Hyanisport. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 14:40 | 2158282 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

The electriciy usage report from Trading Economics appears to be through 2009, so it isn't telling us much about recent activity.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 14:51 | 2158333 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Let me say it again.....real slow for the skeptics.....

It's PEAK.... CHEAP...ENERGY !!!!

Drill Baby Drill.....go ahead. 

Scrape that geological toilet bowl called Canadian Tar Sands..

Frak through that encrusted shit-jam in the geological septic system called Shale...

Drill 30,000 ft combined sea-depth and earth crust down into Satan's asshole called deep water drilling...

I'm truly not going to stop you...

But for the love of God...if I see that smug. black suited bitch walking up to me pissing on my leg and telling me it's raining......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucpo-ubneLQ

.....I will go postal.

WE ARE NOT RUNNING OUT OF ENERGY......WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF CHEAP ENERGY WHICH ALLOWS US PRICE ELASTICITY....which includes elasticity to combat shortages in actual supply, elasticity to fight against refinery shut-downs, elasticity to fight bad energy policy, elasticity to fight more taxes as a part of the overall price., elasticity to fight speculation over such things as unrest and war in areas rich in oil.

If we are TRULY recovering, you should see energy usage going up.  When it goes up the price rises.  And it rises more drmatically if there is less cheap energy to be had to meet both present and increasing future demand.  We have the worst of both worlds.  Energy demand seems to be dropping which underscores the truth of the global economy that we see, however, the price continues to rise.

This is quite telling about whether or not Peak Cheap Energy is a legitimate theory.  Seems to me, particualarly for skeptics, that there is enough anecdotal evidence not to dimiss out of hand.

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 15:26 | 2158472 Benjamin Simon
Benjamin Simon's picture

By all the Gods that was well written and enjoyable to read.  Jumbotron, my hat is off to you good sir.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:28 | 2158838 trav7777
trav7777's picture

JFC...wrong.

There is, for the TRILLIONTH TIME, NO SUCH THING AS PEAK CHEAP OIL. OK?

We're neither RUNNING OUT of oil nor running out of "cheap" oil (wtf is cheap anyway?).  We've simply hit a maximum in the all-time production RATE that can be sustained by the earth.

Do you know what a PEAK looks like?  Are all of you people from fucking Kansas or something?  I guess that would explain a lot....

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:03 | 2159053 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Pull that finger out of your tattooed ass. (Just how DID you get a snarky smiley face tattooed on your anus.....you're a tougher man than me !)

You stated ....."for the TRILLIONTH TIME, NO SUCH THING AS PEAK CHEAP OIL."

Yet you then go on to refute your statemnet with this gem of pretzel logic......

"We've simply hit a maximum in the all-time production RATE that can be sustained by the earth."

A maximum.....a maximum.......hhhmmm.....ok.

Let's continue..... to put it in context and for accuracy your full statement ended with....

....that can be sustained by the earth."

Ok....this is a boundary you set yourself in your opinion.  So.....you are implying that the earth can only sustain a certain amount of production and in your opinion we have reached that maximum. 

Most people would call that maximum a peak....particularly if what you are  stating could be plotted on a graph and could be visualized.

Now...Braniac....here's the real question.  Let's say you're right.  How would that graph look?  Would it look similar to a bell curve....at least the first 2/3 of that bell curve?  You know...a bell curve....a graph that starts low....goes up...and then comes down at a certain rate?

Now on to your second question.....(wtf is cheap anyway?)

Here is one answer.....cheap enough to continue exponential growth of the human condition as defined as .....widespread prosperity (relative to most of human history), widespread economic growth, the continued spread of freedom (VERY relative but once again as measured against the backdrop of human history), techonological advancement ( particularly the kind that Arthur C. Clarke described as akin to magic), the continuance of the wizardry of high finance, the advancement of complex industrial techniques as applied from everything from agriculture to nano-biotics.

Ok junior....I think that's a good start.  Now go home and do some research on your own.  And when you come back, when you spout off some useless bullshit that you have no evidence to back up I'm going to make you right on the blackboard 100 times.....

"I will never again tattoo my anus with a snarky smiley face"

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:17 | 2159436 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the earth doesn't know what the PRICE IS.

Whether or not oil costs a million a barrel or 5 fucking dollars DOES NOT CHANGE that the earth has a maximum sustainable production rate of this resource.

There are a few things I know, son...one of them is that you have NO BUSINESS disputing anything I say in a discussion about oil.  There's literally nobody with half an education here who doesn't already know that.

There is NO SUCH THING AS PEAK CHEAP OIL.

There is only PEAK OIL.  Perhaps you were confused about what it is that I was bitchslapping you about; are we clear now, jackass?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 21:03 | 2160032 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

There are a few things I know, son...one of them is that you have NO BUSINESS disputing anything I say in a discussion about oil.  There's literally nobody with half an education here who doesn't already know that.

Unfortunately for you I have a full education which is why I know you are full of shit. 

What you like to argue are ivory tower concepts just like Ben Bernanke.  However factual they may be, it is irrelevent when the rubber hits the road.  We DO have peak cheap energy because of peak oil.  Of course this peak has come about because of the earth's ability to sustain the production rate given our needs now and the ever increasing need for future global growth and maintenance. 

And of bloody fucking course the EARTH doesn't know what the fucking price is BUT WE DO you monkey-tard.  And it's too damn expensive to continue on the exponential growth pattern we have been on for the last 100 years.

And while you rudely refute people's opinions on the subject with your technical Von Mises bullshit ivory tower perspective, entire nations will decline because of peak cheap energy over the next 50 years.  Of course there will be an equilibrium that is reached which will be different for each culure and country.  But there will be pain, death, destruction, dislocation and even war while we are getting there.

And I imagine you will still be spouting off about how the earth doesn't know the fucking price of blood and why we should not give a shit about it.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:46 | 2158934 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

AGREED - We are not running out of energy.  We are running out of reasonable politicians who will allow the US of A to retrieve what God gave us to use.

PIPELINE NOW!  DRILL - NOW!

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:27 | 2159226 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The only places untapped left to drill are the Rockies and some pristine ALaskan wilderness.  WIll we destroy our water table for oil?  Probably.  But considering water is much more precious than oil, this is too bad.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 14:58 | 2158367 The Heart
The Heart's picture

Good morning to all ZH'ers,

Please donate to the No One But Paul money bomb today.

https://secure.ronpaul2012.com/?dp=1

He really needs the support of all the good hearted folks here.

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:43 | 2158919 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

Anyone but OWEbama.

Anyone -- anyone at all.

Ron needs a solid running mate, I think - to help his %'s.

Dear God, I hope he has the strength to fight the anti-Christ for us.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 15:12 | 2158414 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Problem solved. I am front running an IPO for my new company. Combining food banks with the American bean farmers lobby, I am gathering all of the unemployed and undocumented aliens to food fullfillment centers. FEMA camps. Food Energy for Mother America camps.

There, they will be sustained on a nutritious bean diet, 24 / 7 / 365. While sitting at miles of work benches building " The American People's Aye Aye Siri  Phone ", connected to an elaborate plumbing systerm by "soft touch anal probes", otherwise unprofitable, unhappy, unemployed, homeless people will become useful to The American People. 

All results of the bean diet will be pumped to massive storage tanks for electricity generation for future generations of correctly voting electronic device addicted Amerikan sheeple to ensure the success of the Thousand Year Dr. Strangelove Amerikan Empire ! Problem Solved !

Send all of your money - in the form of silver and gold bullion only -  to me soonest so you can get in on the ground floor of this magnificent investment opportunity ! Listed on the New York Stock Exchange as " SGFIAJ " Save Gas, Fart In A Jar "

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 15:19 | 2158434 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

Fuel is pinned to distillates as well- or refinery supply. Crude.can fall but.distillates can go up. 2 different products. Plus Ben.and Obama have promised price stability and high margins for Saudi royals by drumming up bogus war talk. Because.prices cannot.go.down...ever!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 15:22 | 2158455 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

"The current decline is very steep and has not bottomed."

Yet gasoline prices creep up because of a car bomb in India.  Hell, if I was Exxon Mobil or BP I would blow up a car once a week, or pay an Iranian official to say they're going to close the Strait. 

Supply and demand, like every other factor, only matters when it would cause prices to rise.  Factors which should cause prices to drop are largely ignored.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 15:54 | 2158657 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

If you sell 100 oranges per day, consistantly for one year at $1 you make $100 a day.

You get very used to your pile of cash and living standard.

Then because of empty pockets, you're sales decline to 80 oranges a day for $80.

Although you could easily survive on your new income knowing as well that you're still in possession of inventory, you choose instead to keep up your standard of living and increase the price.

New price: 80 oranges a day at $1.25 to make $100 a day.

  

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:30 | 2158853 trav7777
trav7777's picture

huh???  WTF?  That is not how it works, bud.

You have DEMAND for 100 oranges per day, and you have 80 to satisfy.  You raise price to find equilibrium between supply and demand.

Did you forget that the buyer must be willing or able to PAY what you ask??!

Otherwise, why not charge eleventy billion per orange?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:19 | 2158783 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

Much better report author. A 13% decline in petrol is justified given cash for clunkers, normal reinvestement in new cars, and the public maximizing driving efficientcies.

We gotta do what we gotta do when the price continues to climb.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:31 | 2158857 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

I'm sure all of the foreclosed homes that are sitting unheated have made a big difference.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:40 | 2158886 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I am sorry I reduced electric usage from 1500 KwH per month down to roughly 300 give or take.

It only cost me about 10,000 dollars to get it done all told to have a contractor replace the entire grid in the home and some to retail for the energy star which I did not get anyway because I donated the old shit to those who did not have any at all.

But I am not sorry that I am using the few hundred in savings towards metals, ammo and learning other trades to be useful when the final collaspe comes.

They also overlooked winter.

Just about every home on my road hired the gas company to lay down new gas mains to heat homes, water and stoves after being raped by very high electric bills that nearly bankrupted them. It is easier to pay 40 a month for Gas than it is to pay 500 per month for juice.

I suppose my and my neighbors actions should be good for the Nation as it eases the fucking load on the old grid that no one bothers to replace with the availible super conducting technology availible today.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:40 | 2158907 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Electricity consumption ...I don't see going down. All the new and exisitnf data centers around the US (most notably NY / NJ powering all the low latency co=locators in equity, FX, and FI mkts), are being built to handle tghe demand of the new "cloud based' applications and services that are jumping off of the shelves.

 

Methods of improved power utilization effciencies no doubt will have some impact, but social media sites, (how many goat feckers are on Facebook?) and new electronic trading based data centers will certainly make up for any slack in demand form unemployed wrokers or dips in production.

Additionally with QE3, QE4, and Queen Elizabeth II coming in the form of money printing....and ultimately wars....why short energy..?

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:41 | 2158912 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

So, the gas prices are creepin' up - it goes up every time I go into town (which isn't much lately but do have a student driving daily).  For those areas where the public can control spending on such issues - we just do, right?  No surprise there.

I have to say that we have been working hard on consolidating trips these last few months -- if we have a school function, that's the day we go to the grocery store, etc.   We might go out to eat here and there - but only if there is another reason to be in town. 

We practically turn the heat off at night in some areas (keep the kidding warm).  We parents throw on an extra blanet, snuggle and if needed -dress for sleep like hunters (hah!). 

We also have 3 of 4 kids in a homeschool/virtual school program now (pretty pleased thus far), so that has saved us a lot of trips into town (or saves the bus driver/school tons of extra miles daily) -- and a lot of angst w/public school issues.

Where the people can trim - we just will.  We do what we have to do.

I take the difference in coinage and buy "prepper" goods (no, I'm not like the ones on TV).

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 17:07 | 2159096 dirtbagger
dirtbagger's picture

Its Global Warming - the Canadians are estatic.  Rumors of Saskathewan farmers replaceing wheat fields with orange groves

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:28 | 2170574 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Hahaha! I bet they are! Careful about Sask. agriculture though, the Canuckistanian Fed Gov't is fixing to sell off the country's water to Europe, and what's left of their sovereignty along with it; can't grow lemon trees in a desert...OTOH, with all the new warrantless surveillance soon to be available to their FedGov't, it will be much easier to crush dissiden.... I mean,  ferret out heinous Fleetwood Mac's Rumours copyright infringers, and fill the brand new prisons with them, thanks to Harper's new mandatory min. sentences for, well, everything. Combine all this with prisoners' forced labour legislation, and international mining companies may soon have  access to plenty of Great White Northern labour so cheap that it will easily rival what China can offer.

You think I'm kidding, don't you.

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