Guest Post: Jesters, Economics, And American Dollar Supremacy

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Andrew Smolski of

Jesters, Economics, and American Dollar Supremacy

The debt debate has been going on all summer, a 2 months and running theatrical experience of court jesters parading about while the United States economy teeters on the edge. On both sides of the aisle have been ridiculous solutions that are showing the world daily, America is willing to sacrifice its citizens for the profits of the corporations. The problem is, why will the rest of the world continue to support American multi-nationals, when they have their own. As dollar supremacy begins to wane, and oil prices rise as the dollar’s value descends, maybe it is time to talk about the horrendous policy decisions of these politicians in hopes it opens up a way to point us in the correct direction. Otherwise, when August 2nd comes and the deal is passed anyway, cause it has all just been a “watch this hand” moment, we might find ourselves not understanding why the Social Security check seems meager compared to before.
The dollar has been the world reserve currency since before I was born, this has given the American economy and government a wide range of capabilities economically that most/all other countries do not enjoy. Whenever a crisis happens, even the housing market/derivative crisis caused by US domestic policy, people will run to US Treasury bonds which pushes the dollar value up against other currencies such as the Euro. However, the world has been growing weary of this tactic and also of the fact that they hold these Treasury bonds, and the Treasury then ignores them along with the Fed to push policies such as QE2. QE2 devalues the dollar, which in turn devalues the bonds, and along the way pushes up the price of oil. It is false stimulus, stimulating stock points in an imaginary economy and not creating jobs and products in a real trading economy. Not only are none of these plans doing what needs to be done, create jobs in a consumer economy and wealth again in the middle class, but it is reducing faith in the dollar. As dollar supremacy goes, who knows what will be the status of a country that has hollowed out its manufacturing industry.
So, QE2 raised prices on oil and food putting the squeeze on the very consumers which then degraded further consumer confidence. The debt debate also reduces confidence of rating industries, who are now stating that they could reduce the grade of US Treasury bonds to AA. That would be a first in history for the US, although it should be taken into account that these were the same rating industries who were giving excellent ratings to derivatives which crashed the global economy. Ron Paul had an idea to deal with the debt ceiling and also to prolong the debate, the Federal Reserve could just delete the Treasury debt it holds. This is because the holding of this debt is the same as the government paying itself, and most of these numbers in the end are just inputs into computers. Instead, both sides will continue debating in comedic fashion as if they are going to repair the economy with this debate. The debate if not resolved will crash the world economy again, that is about it. More importantly it will aid the arguments put forth by Iran and China that the world should use a basket of currencies for oil. See, as stated prior, oil prices and dollar value have an inverse relationship. As, the dollar descends oil prices rise and vice-versa, but it is an indirect inverted relationship.
Middle East economies have been discussing the basket currency idea, with Kuwait actually implementing the idea. Paulson had to discuss with Qatar about not doing so, even though these economies do not need nor want a descending currency when they are growing without issue. Even with the Euro Zone debt debate, it seems to relate back to US banks and the Treasury wanting to make sure they are paid what they loaned, regardless of the fact that they were selling derivatives and betting against them at the same time. Luckily for the US, the Euro Zone is with us, but this is not the case with many of countries of the world. China is not and China’s recommendation was for an SDR system, which was created by the IMF as an international reserve asset. It would be something like a supra-sovereign currency. The US may be the biggest economy and also the most technology advanced military, but the economy looks as if it is built on sand and the world has tired of wars. Business and trade are the new forms of battle, and we may still have Saudi Arabia with us, but emerging economies want oil as well. It looks as if we may have surrounded the world with missiles in the biggest waste of money the world has ever seen, as our position geopolitically downgrades due to a loss of faith by the markets (read investors).  All this shows the slowly degrading confidence in the US being the “pivot point” for the world economy.
The power of the dollar in relation to oil can be shown by the graph below, and thinking about when QE2 was enacted along with Middle Eastern revolts and the Libyan war. In 2009 people were still rushing to buy US Treasury bonds, the Euro Zone crisis had begun, and therefore the dollar was remaining strong. Also, Bernanke had not foolishly gone pissing off the worlds people by doing QE2. So, oil was relatively stable and priced quite low in comparison to today. As QE2 waned away, and the dollar was losing value due to the loss of value in US Treasury bonds oil began to sky rocket, mixed with the US intervention in Libya and other disruptive forces in the Middle Eastern region. The dollar plays a strong role, not the only role. Speculators are typically blamed, but speculators only can manipulate if events coalesce which produces a change in sentiment from large scale investors in the market. That coalescing happened and oil more so than gold is like the secondary world reserve currency, and as the safety of the dollar and Treasury bonds deteriorate, oil

Brent Crude Price

becomes a higher demand product. So, it is not technically due to the dollar peg, but due to confidence, this is what in a form supports Hayek’s radical relativist position on economics. This position was, formulas do not take into consideration all the variables all the time, because of a false belief in a rationality of economics. It is less of a science and more of a discipline as stated by Max-Neef, although they are odd to be stated in the same essay. That discipline has been infiltrated by ideologues who are blaming all sides and only a few economists like Mike Whitney, Dean Baker, and Paul Craig Roberts have called out Bernanke on his QE2 policy. The New York Times did, when it was almost done, which is like the housing bubble, who cares if you call it afterwards.
Then what is domestic economic policy going to be? There has been no debate about that, check out my article The Need For Real Domestic Alternative Energy Policy, or also America: Why Aren’t You Protesting, both discussing A.) the debate should be focused on jobs and reinvigorating a consumer economy and B.) political discourse has been corroded by a corporatization of American politics. Instead, what we have is the biggest theatrical experience in politics. The world is shocked at the stupidity, here in México both La Reforma and La Jornada have editorials saying it is playing with fire or that they have lost the ability to sustain their economies properly. One, and perhaps the most important, no one wants a US default, it is a default on the largest debt the world has ever had. Two, the US can keep accumulating debt as long as the world maintains confidence in the dollar and in the government of the US to enact correct policies. That would be that they need to stop being clowns using a debate to cut social services and start talking about the economy instead of screwing over the middle and lower class of the country. Three, oil prices will continue to rise, because of the loss of confidence in the dollar and US Treasury bonds, because demand will rise for oil as a reserve currency for the world until a new system arises. If they can not even treat something as simple as a debt ceiling debate with seriousness, then maybe the world is right for reducing confidence. Welcome to the world of high priced oil and stupid American domestic economic policy.

By. Andrew Smolski

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oogs66's picture

I'm more confused, but better informed.  Thanks

bigelkhorn's picture


Alot of people think we are doomed, but there are still great ways to make money. Even while the economy is collapsing around us.

I subscribe to the guy from australia and his FFT economic newsletter at  that guy has called many big events before they have happend, including the stock market crash in 2008 and the current financial collapse of the US. (currently happening) I found him from a friend last year, and he has some important work.

Long-John-Silver's picture

You could have said the above in 3 words. "We are Fucked".

bigkahuna's picture

I thought I was going to see a PM pull back. no No NO!!! People are starting to catch on. They are buying it and it is not coming back to the market.

toady's picture

I was looking for an opportunity too. I'm still hoping for a chance. I guess hope isn't what it used to be.

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

America is willing to sacrifice its citizens for the profits of the corporations. The problem is, why will the rest of the world continue to support American multi-nationals, when they have their own.

There are few, if any, American corporations. Just because they are chartered in Delaware and have their headquarters somewhere in the United States doesn't mean they're "American". They have no permanent ties to any nation, as they see themselves above antiquated concepts like political boundaries. This also applies to corporations supposedly from other countries.

Large corporations have allegiance to no country; if anything, the exact opposite is true. To believe that the rest of the world has "their own" corporations is just buying into the propaganda. The pledge of allegiance for multi-nationals can be summed up in five words: profit before people or planet.


Ident 7777 economy's picture



  TheFourthStooge-ing  on Mon, 08/01/2011 - 22:55

"There are few, if any, American corporations. Just because they are chartered in Delaware and have their headquarters somewhere in the United States doesn't mean they're "American". They have no permanent ties to any nation, as they see themselves above antiquated concepts like political boundaries."

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

  Ah - Shemp is it? Would that be on account of who owns the voting shares of common stock?

I think that was covered back in high school - Shemp, did you go to school?




TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

I think that was covered back in high school - Shemp, did you go to school?

No. I started working in the coal mines on my second birthday, bought my first shotgun at the age of three, and was into fine whiskey and women by the time I was five.  I'm a subliterate cretin whose reading comprehension is limited to monosyllabic words. Ain't nobody never learned me no good English.

By the way, Cede & Co. actually possesses the stock you think you own.

I'm going to go inhale chloroform and watch cartoons now.


Diet Coke and Floozies's picture

"inhale chloroform"

Now that brings back memories...

cara leaf's picture

More insurrection at

This is where it gets really scary.  The "savings" in the budget deal assume our economy grows, year in & year out, until the end of the world, at 3%.

Right now, it's growing under 1%. Why would anyone care about us?  A mature market that watched too much TV and committed suicide with its consumerism. 


No, they're goin' where the weather's fine and it's full of slaves who've never heard of revolving credit.  If you were a sociopath, wouldn't you?

imapopulistnow's picture

So our government (which is broke) should subsidize alternative energy (which dosn't work).  How did I miss it?

Clearly_Irrational's picture

As a generic subsidy no, there are some policies that could make sense though.  For example, currently we give large sums of money to people who hate us because they have oil, which we currently need.  Instead of spending so much money on foreign oil we could make it a national security issue to use only domestic energy sources and channel some of the vast DoD funds towards that end.  Converting the trucking industry to domestic propane and all individual vehicles to electric (which could be generated by a wide variety of clean -solar- and not so clean -coal- domestic sources) would be a far more effective way of dealing with the issue than trying to bomb the foreigners until they like us.

Oh regional Indian's picture

imapop, it's where the "broke" government's money is going that is the problem no? I mean yes?

Alternative energy "works' just like most other technologies do, in thsi supply side, scientific worls, if yuo give it 10 unbridled, failure prone years to sort itself out. But you keep making banks good with money. But not alternative energy?

Unfortunately that window flashed by a few decades ago.

Now it's like we're startnig to dog the well when thirsty. A bad idea all around, eh?


Thomas Jefferson's picture

Super Congress will save us.  I, for one, welcome my new politburo overlords.

Manthong's picture

"there is a crisis coming..   it's not going to happen because we failed to raise the debt ceiling, it's going to happen because we succeed in raising the debt ceiling"

-Peter Schiff


PaperBugsBurn's picture

It's going to be a slow burn and the KAPUT, it all goes up in smoke. The banksters release a nuke or the Rubimbi/Yuable pulls the trigger.


Kuwait? They were bankster founded through and through. Maybe they didn't like being used as a pawn in "Gulf war I".

Almost Solvent's picture

Will we comment on HSBC selling out its braches to First Niagara?


Fuck that shit


I am Jobe's picture

10K to 30K layoffs now. Yippie.

gangland's picture


"The post-world war II order rested on two pillars. 

The first was Fordist regulation, which emerged in the United Stated in the 1930's and became generalized throughout the OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) area in the post-World War II era.

Fordism with liberal, social-democratic, and Christian-democratic variations, depended on the linkage of mass production and mass consumption through Keynesianism.

Technological innovation and collective agreements made possible welfare expansion and the distribution of productivity gains.

The second pillar was US hegemony, expressed in inderdependent trade and monetary policies.

Through the dollar-gold stand, the United States provided stability and liquidity, laying the basis for expansion of trade and investment,

which, however, lagged behind the growth of output.

Keynesian mutual recognition of capital controls was designed to thwart "unproductive" financial flows (Helleiner, 1994; pp.25-50).

This regime made it possible to balance the management of the international economy with sufficient state autonomy to mediate distinct welfare arrangements (Ruggie, 1982: pp.192-232).

The system remained stable as long as the dollar was strong enough to generate a constant supply of liquidity and international capital flows remained low in proportion to GDP."

- cafruny & Ryner "Europe at Bay" (2007)



disabledvet's picture

I gotta say you write very interesting stuff and you write it well. Needless to say to "finish your thought" we really are in deep kimche with the dollar as weak as it is per your views. personally i think we should just give it up anyways because such "orders" always fail and "new" modus operandi's exist literally to replace them. mine happens to be an entire "entity" revolving around the use of natural gas as the fundamental fuel source. it's just a thesis--an "operational modus vivendi" and in no way represents "truth" in any form--just "my truth" in the sense of it being an investing thesis upon which all forms of capital should be deployed. i guess that makes me a Marxist even though i can't stand big government! seriously though there's no such thing as an "efficient deployment of capital"--only a burn rate--are we trying to create a more efficient and productive future though? in so doing are we trying to get others to "Gel" with our thesis? (being hostile has its advantages here: if i say i don't like you maybe it's because i have some more rewarding on my mind!) if they provide you with the answer (money for example) then you will know. I know i have not been disappointed and i imagine those who are already in the space are overjoyed. what i find interesting of course is that the amount of work truly necessary for the "revolution" to manifest itself seems strikingly small--we appear to be "on the cusp" as they say.

roccman's picture

why the world goes along?

is that the question...?

Because every puppet head of state has been told: 1) control your own internal kill offs and 2) don't hit the red button

If you think EVERY HEAD OF STATE ON THE PLANET is ignorant of: 1) OVERSHOOT and 2) PEAK EVERYTHING ...

i have a bridge in az you may be interested in.

the world has been divied up a long long time ago.

gangland's picture




power has many manifestations, from the minimal and subtle to the consensual or interactive, to fully coercive and expressed.

modern elites are highly sophisticated in their expression and use of power.

what hegemony, integral and minimum refer to, are the given and understood, economic and corporate concessions that the hegemonic power is willing to make to the groups under its control.

integral at its strongest such as under bretton woods.

and minimal, since 1971 and BW collapse, where the gap between the hegemon and the subordinate power groups have widened considerably.

counter-hegemonic groups are too weak to mount a cohesive response in light of crossing elite interests, even in light of the weak nature of the hegemon who is no longer serving general interests.

- cafruny & ryner

Sophist Economicus's picture

Andrew, first let me say, that without question you are a dope.   Now to your three concluding points:


"The world is shocked at the stupidity, here in México both La Reforma and La Jornada have editorials saying it is playing with fire or that they have lost the ability to sustain their economies properly" --- YUP, Mexican newspapers are shocked -- Gee, coming from Mexico, this is a really big deal --NOT!


"One, and perhaps the most important, no one wants a US default"  -- Humm, WRONG!   Many people want a US default - for a perfectly good reason -- our current 'NON-DEFAULT' status is a LIE!   if you cannot see that paying with a depreciated currency, that continues to erode by 5 to 10% a year is not default, you are a bigger dope than I thought (which, would be feat in itself)

"Two, the US can keep accumulating debt as long as the world maintains confidence in the dollar and in the government of the US to enact correct policies.   That would be that they need to stop being clowns using a debate to cut social services and start talking about the economy instead of screwing over the middle and lower class of the country"     Ahh, I see, keep accumulation debt as long as everybody is comfortable with it!   And, by continuing down our current ponzi road, we're actually HELPING (???) the "middle and lower classes" eh....Wow!   Tell me, I hope you paid in fiat .vs. hard money for that Political/Economic Sociology degree of yours.   Because, it and your second point aren't worth ....

"Three, oil prices will continue to rise, because of the loss of confidence in the dollar and US Treasury bonds, because demand will rise for oil as a reserve currency for the world until a new system arises".   Yup, oil is going up in dollar terms because the dollar is going down in value.    Enlightening!    Brilliant!   Glad I read this, now my life has changed....

You're an idiot

Andrew S.'s picture

I am just absolutely shocked that you even read my article. I am also, quite happy to reply.


1.) Reading papers from other countries is beneficial, whatever you may think of them. This is how to understand not only your perspective and the perspective constructed domestically, but also global perspectives. Whether you like it or not the world is global and the markets are as well. So I suggest you stop being so close minded and open up to new ideas and frames for you way of thinking.

2.) The whole default thing you are taking about seems to not take into account that no matter the system is always growing. That is just how it works. I do not know where you learned economics, but it does not seem to be in any reality I have ever heard of. If we let our consumer economy go then we are caput, and guess what a lot of those consumers depend on, stimulation to maintain the level we are at and also to create less risk for some chance taking (which is regulated and done by people on the ground not in corporations who are at the moment hoarding investment capital and not creating jobs) not on some draconian cuts. Check out South America last century for what austerity programs do, and how they are operating against that idea now (Brazil anyone).

3.) Last but not least, you must have read quite poorly. I did not say it was a direct correlation, I said it was due to confidence, a rise in demand and multiple factors. When the dollar deflates people find other commodites (Gold by chance, I figure you have bought a lot of it hoping for a return to that standard). Along with the loss of dollar supremacy you get a rise in the price of oil for the US and in the markets because then people can buy more, no longer having to change out money for the dollar. Also, on the same note, if you think most of the money floating around is anything other than fiat then I hope the dream world with all your imaginary friends works out for you.


I am sorry you wish to degrade me with such vulgarity, but I understand it may not be in your nature to think.


Thank you,

Have a nice day

Pay Day Today's picture

Classy screwing. Cap off to you, AS.

sasebo's picture

The dollar is just a ticket to buy something made in America. But, America production of stuff isn't growing. So why is the treasury borrowing more tickets to spend & why is the fed printing more tickets for the banks to borrow at 0% & lend out at 18%?

fajensen's picture

"Why" is obvious: "Because they can" & "Because ... Fuck You!"

By having the reserve currency and printing new USD-denominated debt as fast as the market will absorb it, the United States can effectively grab and consume all the ressources that the competition might need to grow.

IOW: The US economy is based on Spoiling and Griefing!

JW n FL's picture

Uploaded by on Jul 29, 2011

None of the options being debated by the U.S. Congress can fix the economic situation. Only monetary reform -- a simple solution -- can fix this.

lasvegaspersona's picture

As soon as those in charge of spendng all those USD coming into their countries decide that gold is a better way of holding wealth than US Treas instruments.....then gold becomes king and its use will be self reinforcing. The more the price of gold goes up the smarter the guy in charge looks and the more guys like him will follow suit. In this environment holding gold becomes the strategy to follow. Fiat? no problem, pretty to look at and handy to buy stuff with....just not something you'd trust your daughter (or long term wealth) with. Fiat will be long as it behaves itself. Happin soon I suspect....

JW n FL's picture

Congressman schools Fed chairman again during House Financial Services Committee meeting, warns "history is against you"

gangland's picture


he is such an excellent debater. 

better than his son even.



AssFire's picture

It will hurt those most likely to riot.

Though 10 percent of the U.S. civilian labor force, African-Americans are 18 percent of U.S. government workers. They are 25 percent of the employees at Treasury and Veterans Affairs, 31 percent of the State Department, 37 percent of Department of Education employees and 38 percent of Housing and Urban Development. They are 42 percent of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., 55 percent of the employees at the Government Printing Office and 82 percent at the Court Services and Offender Supervision Agency.

When the Obama administration suggested shutting down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage giants whose losses of $150 billion have had to be made up by taxpayers, The Washington Post warned, in a story headlined, “Winding Down Fannie and Freddie Could Put Minority Careers at Risk,” that 44 percent of Fannie employees and 50 percent of Freddie’s were persons of color.

When it comes to facing the truth about race we are cowards Mr Holder.

Yen Cross's picture

  Can I draw the neck line on the aud/usd >   m-30 chart?   Pretty please?

Grand Supercycle's picture

Indicators still warn of a USD rally and EURUSD weakness.

disabledvet's picture

I happen to agree with this. "Empirically" as they say. If we're on the cusp of an economic revolution in North America (one that has been building for decades now) then the last thing you want to be doing is shorting the dollar. it also makes what the Fed is doing "correct" in the sense that they are allowing for the creation of a more efficient market economy by basically guaranteeing an upward sloping yield curve. insofar as the "shit paper" on their balance sheet goes --"cross that bridge when you get to it" seems to be the order of the day. more to the point default is always an option. to date the ONLY thing the government has done is defend bond holders. but the bond holders always stand in the way of the productive classes. at some point if "too much of good thing arises" via "the new economy" it is my view the bond holders will be annihilated. call if "Rockefellerism" if you like--it is the endgame of "Bailout Nation" though.

Sathington Willougby's picture


Technical analysis doesn't work if the fundamentals are shit. 

The free market is dead, fake money has blown out the valuable portions of the economy with the feces of fascists.

Banana America

FlyPaper's picture

While we are all frustrated by this process, at least the Rep's tried to do something.  Where else did they have leverage other than the debt ceiling?  

No new taxes (why feed the beast when its out of control?)

Pushed for deficit reductions

Put the spenders on notice that things are not going to be quite as easy, and

Put a balanced budget amendment on the table, where, IMO, it belongs.

It also forced Obama to show his hand.  He has no intention of cutting anything (except Medicare - Health industry is just found out Medicare payments will be reduced 11% - by the D-party's Obama care).  He resorted to scare tactics, class warfare, distortions and puerile threats.  The guy clearly is not a statesman.

Its been a good long while since we had a good row in Congress - and we should expect and encourage more of the same.  The stakes are no less than losing the country to marxism "light" via the Progressives (in both parties).

So I disagree much with the assertion that only ridiculous ideas were presented.  What, pray tell, would you have suggested they do differently?

Easy to bitch about it; not so easy to come up with solutions (esp when you are the minority).


natty's picture

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johny2's picture

One PM to rule them all: The time of the QE3 is drawing nearer each day, and with it a last battle betweent the fiat currencies and the precious metals...

El Hosel's picture

"Look, up in the air", is it a bird? Is it  a plane?...   No, it is the super ponzi debt ceiling.....  and no, Their is no ceiling in that ceiling.

JR's picture

Excellent article!

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