Guest Post: Libya's Post Gadhaffi Future - Who Gets The Oil?

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Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:08 | 1596214 Rastadamus
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Well we know who won't get it.... The Libyan people.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:09 | 1596217 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Wow, you beat me to the punch.  Sooooo true.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:14 | 1596237 spiral_eyes
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Come on bitchez!!!

Everyone knows the big question is 'Who Gets Qadaffi's Gold'

My money is on the Bundesbank... 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:16 | 1596243 Gene Parmesan
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Yellow oil? Ft Knox tea?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 16:15 | 1596438 walküre
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Germans made it very clear they didn't want to engage in more Anglo-American plunder warfare.

Thieves and pirates on both sides of the Atlantic. Wall Street, Rothschilds and Windsors. Great wars were started over less.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 19:07 | 1597135 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

If you can't turn a profit off war, why fight one?

That'd be pure bug house nuts.

Oh, wait...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:17 | 1596248 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

What did they ever do to make any claims on it right?

and don't start the history channel with "we rebelled blabla bla" because that's history.


Wed, 08/24/2011 - 16:18 | 1596441 A Lunatic
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Finders keepers, Bitchez

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:20 | 1596255 DaveyJones
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Well first, they're not responsible or experienced enough to set up a democracy so first, our executive must violate the war powers act to demostrate exactly how a a "true" American democracy works. Then, they must be forced to set up a democratic puppet regime where, now this is important, each puppet has an equal right to say what they are told and paid to say. It's only after they realize, talking to Iraqis, that westerners are only there to take their oil, that things start to divert from the master plan.      

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 16:22 | 1596416 Rick64
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Yes, but this is not just about an oil patch, but about control of the monetary system that will control everything. Libyans get ready for loans from the IMF so you can build infrastructure, and guess what we know the Multinationals that can do it. Its going to be expensive, but you will prosper until your debt exceeds your GDP because of interest payments for those loans. Don't worry we can roll that debt over for you, but we will need you to privatize some of your resources, implement higher taxes, lower wages, raise interest rates, ect...and no you can't print your own money anymore those days are over. You will be required to sell the oil to whoever we tell you to sell it to (in Dollars of course)which will give us leverage against that country. Welcome to servitude, I mean U.S. democracy. China and Russia squeezed out of the picture. This is economic warfare against anybody thats not on the side of the U.S..

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:02 | 1596665 DaveyJones
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true true, the IMF regime scheme will be written into the first paragraph of their constitution

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:13 | 1596715 YHC-FTSE
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I think that covers it. With all the war, gold and oil conversations floating about I forgot about the most important aspect of this: Debt slavery. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:36 | 1596810 Juan Wild
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Yes, its all all about getting countries on the Rothschild Teet. The Libyans will have their Red Pill moment long after they are hooked on endless debt and discover they have now become part of the wonderful global community aka ROTHSCHILD OWNS YOUR ASS BITCHEZ!!  They will have iPads, McNuggets and 7 credit cards each to buy more worthless shit. Then they will discover the real reason for their "tears of liberation" a couple of days ago in Green Square.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:44 | 1596844 New_Meat
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Here's cognitive dissonance: Rothschild owns a Sharia-ruled state.  Maybe the Baron has come up with a counter-example for his rule? 

Who knew?

- Ned

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 18:09 | 1596915 magpie
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you mean the UK ? /snark

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 18:18 | 1596937 New_Meat
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nah, Londinistan b old-news.  Phillips did a great book.

- Ned

{OT-I have a U.K. associate who had planned a trip to the Pyramids for vacation.  Just came back.  He said "We left UK to avoid the riots."}

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 18:17 | 1596935 jmc8888
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Yep to the entire nested back and forth.

Because it fits so nicely. 


NATO's Post-Westphalia Overthrow of Qaddafi

Mustafa Abdul Jalil...remember that name.



Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:03 | 1596667 YHC-FTSE
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As stomach-churning as that sounds, it's probable. By the time the Libyan populace realize that there will be no more oil dividends, free hospitals, and free universities, their oil facilities guarded by Blackwater thugs, billions of overseas assets missing, not to mention their gold, it'll be too late to have another go at a revolution - they'll be living in a military/police state like the rest of us if they are lucky or a version of Baghdad if they are not.


The most important man in the new regime, Ali Tarhouni (Finance and Oil Minister) is an interesting figure. He has been living in the USA (No surprises there) since 1978, which makes him an American, and until recently taught Business economics at Washington Univ. Michael G Foster School of Business. Academia is usually cocooned from the rest of society, so perhaps he was fortunate enough to avoid all the raghead and sandnigger epithets during the past couple of decades from his peers. If so, forget all the other nations, the fact that he has the crucial post for the next year at least means that, almost certainly, Libyan assets will be America's. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:03 | 1597413 dark pools of soros
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dead on until the last part... 'America's'??  do you mean Exxon?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 23:51 | 1598098 sun tzu
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Libya belongs to Europe

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 18:12 | 1596919 falak pema
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So ironic and so probably true. All this so that those new sheeple can be sheared not by their own Oligarch in power since 40 years but by the foreign oligarchs. Now that is reverse engineering à la France-Afrique! 

Just look at Gabon and Congo, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Angola, and you'll know where the new Libya is heading!

Who cares if its Total, BP or Shell, it'll be the usual suspects, give or take a few Oligarchs from "East of SUez", China oblige!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:10 | 1596218 baby_BLYTHE
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Donald Trump said Libyan War would be a waste if the United States didn't get a hold of the oil he believes we are entitled to

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:12 | 1596227 LynRobison
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The topic of who gets the oil is interesting, but it will all be moot when Gadhaffi or forces loyal to him hide out in the Libyan desert, invite Iran to set up a nuclear missle there, and fire that missle at Israel. At that point, the question of who owns the Libran oil will be the least of anyone's problems.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:14 | 1596235 Seasmoke
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sounds like a good plan

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:19 | 1596257 LynRobison
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I am going to ignore your anti-semitic stupidity and focus on your overall stupidity. Do you really think a single nuclear strike against Israel would be all there is to it? Nuclear missles would be launched in response from lots of places to lots of places. Maybe one would even hit you... 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:26 | 1596282 narnia
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the world's largest arsenal of nuclear weapons has meant precisely squat in korea, vietnam, afghanistan, iraq, pakistan, yemen, libya, somalia...  they are liabilities, not assets at this point.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:34 | 1596305 LynRobison
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That is until the looser of an asymmetric war (such as Gadhaffi in Libya) wants to start a nuclear conflagration amongst the victors. I am just saying that a vengeful Gadhaffi and a power-hungry Iran are a dangerous combination. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:04 | 1596673 smore
smore's picture

Oh No!  A "looser" on ZH!  A vengeful Gadhaffi and a power-hungry Iran sound like music to my ears.  Vengeance, bitch!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:40 | 1596822 blueRidgeBoy
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+1 for the avatar.  -1 for the gratuitous spell check.  net: 0

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 18:23 | 1596950 falak pema
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Lyn must work for one of these think tanks who employ latter day Dr Stangelove nerds. Each scenario more scary and out of the ball park than the last one.

No wonder she can't tell friend from foe, question from answer. She is her own enigma. Only one solution if she be a Lyn...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 18:24 | 1596951 narnia
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Please explain one armed conflict instigated by Iran in the last 100 years. I'm all ears.  Surely they've been involved in several, trying to expand their borders being "power-hungry" and all.  

I'm not a fan of the current regime in Iran, but they pose ZERO threat to the USA.  They are arming themselves as we would be doing if the Chinese had 10 bases in Mexico & Canada, air craft carriers along both coasts, and were using war rhetoric against us.  If the US withdrew from the region, the whole Iranian regime would fall within weeks.  We are perpetuating this.

Gadhaffi has never posed a threat to the US.  He's a village idiot, but he didn't do anything to provoke regime change.  An armed group of al qaeda rebels decided they wanted to throw him out & take his gold & resources. NATO backed these thugs.  If he counter attacks with something fierce, I'd say NATO brought it upon themselves.

All these real and rhetorical conflicts have nothing to do with US national security.  If a nuclear bomb goes off, odds are the US and/or Israel are behind it.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 05:08 | 1598440 fajensen
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When the uprising against Gadhaffi began 75 Chinese companies had already invested billions of dollars in Libya in infrastructure projects, including oil, railway and telecoms projects. After the insurrection erupted in February China began a substantial land, sea and air evacuation operation of its nationals.


Why there is an "arab spring" at all: Western powers Griefing and Spoiling China and Russia. Hopefully, it backfires in a spectacular but rather messy way!

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:29 | 1598534 Eager learner
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According to the James Corbett the one of the 1st thing the rebels (why aren’t they called insurgents? They fit the definition perfectly) did was attack a Chinese factory. They know where there bread will be buttered.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:36 | 1596310 Raynja
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You write a scenario. Someone agrees with you and you call them stupid, racist, and wish death on them.
Jesus fuck you're a retard.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 16:06 | 1596404 LynRobison
LynRobison's picture

Yep, if I did that, then you are right. I probably misunderstood them. My apologies. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 16:20 | 1596444 A Lunatic
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Wed, 08/24/2011 - 19:36 | 1597291 SilverDosed
SilverDosed's picture

....and the race card gets played.

Fuck off you dirty kike. <<<now theres some real anti-semitism for you.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:14 | 1596234 kito
kito's picture

maybe nobody will get the oil. its possible gadhaffis counter insurgency groups will keep the infrastructure paralyzed for an extended period of time.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:18 | 1596734 Juan Wild
Juan Wild's picture

hmmm, then the ground invasion will begin. Might as well just continue down into Sudan as well. You know the HARVARD Humanitarian Initiative and The Satellite Sentenel Project have discovered mass graves there. We won't talk about all the oil Sudan has though. That's never a reason there is so much "liberation" happening. It's always a HUMANitarian thing! fuckers.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:15 | 1596241 Abiotic Oil
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Who gets (got?) the gold?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:16 | 1596242 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture


Tyler, please stop presenting morons.  Surely you can find people to pay you to be posted who are not morons.

"Projecting into the future, analysts believe that has reserves to sustain its previous level of production for 80 years. "


You do not take reserves and divide them by production and announce XXX years..

Production falls off long before the field is empty.  This is just stupid.  You can sustain "its previous level of production" only for as long as new drilling offsets dying old wells.  There is ZERO evidence that would be 80 years for Libya.

Look at the latest news out of Iran.  They are looking at 300K bpd production fall off because of the death of old fields.  Look at the North Sea.  They get all the new drilling they want and they are cratering 100s of K bpd per year.

And look at Mexico.  They are even worse.

Stop presenting morons who divide reserves by PRESENT PRODUCTION to quote how long they can hold that production level.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 16:35 | 1596484 Hagbard Celine
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Damn. You beat me to it.


"analysts believe" = "some people say"

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 17:48 | 1596856 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Trav?  That u?  Two accounts?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:17 | 1596244 magpie
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Since victory in Libya hasn't lowered oilprices as promised, Western elites can at least give themselves a pat for creating bad blood between the BRICS.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 16:22 | 1596447 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Yeah, the "victory". LMFAO!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 16:29 | 1596468 magpie
magpie's picture

The victory is ongoing and can be proclaimed daily.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:20 | 1596261 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

84. talking wti? where's brent? another thing, the q-man will just burn the oil one gets it..that just pisses people off more than anything. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 18:39 | 1596987 CrashisOptimistic
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For God's sake OPEN YOUR EYES.

Refineries pay Brent prices if they are on the coast.  Only the midwest refineries with access to Cushing can pay WTI prices, and they price their output gasoline like the prices out of the coastal refineries.

Brent's down about $15 from its high.  Gasoline is up 20% on the year because Brent is $14 higher than it was at the start of the year.

The futures markets mean NOTHING to a refinery trying to negotiate a price.  The only thing that matters is what the Chinese are willing to pay.  That number is Brent or TAPIS, both between $110 and $120.  And yes, that means Brent just rose over $110 again today.  Spread $25.  (It was about 14 and rising sharply before Libya ever hit the radar screen).

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:21 | 1596263 TrulyBelieving
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Good question who winds up with the oil, another good question who winds up with the gold?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:22 | 1596264 Negro Primero
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1:51 pm | Emen .- President Hugo Chávez denounced the Venezuelan embassy in Tripoli was "plundered and robbed" by "hordes."

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