This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Guest Post: The Market From The Eyes Of An 8 Year Old

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Peter Tchir of TF Capital Markets

The Market From The Eyes Of An 8 Year Old

After two incredibly volatile weeks, where more Americans now know the ticker symbol for Gold (GLD) than its Periodic Table Symbol (AU), I'm just not sure what to write.  Trying to make sense of it all is hard enough, and by this time on a Sunday, what hasn't already been written?  I guess I could have tried to write something title "Circular reasoning and cognitive dissidence in the markets" , but that seemed fairly complex.  Instead, maybe looking at the past couple of weeks through the eyes of a child, is a better idea. 

Son:  Dad, do you FINALLY have time to go fishing?

Me:  Sure, sorry about this week, but it's been just crazy in the markets.

Son: Sure, but you always say that.

Me:  No, really, it has been crazy ever since the debt ceiling weekend.

Son:  Debt ceiling weekend? /raises eyebrows/  What is a debt ceiling?

Me:  It is a limit on how much the government can borrow, and the market was really concerned about it.

Son:  Ah, the market was worried we were borrowing too much?

Me:  No, that we couldn't borrow more to pay our debts.

Son:  How is borrowing more the same as paying debts?

Me:  It's complicated, but we needed to borrow more or else we might have been downgraded.

Son:  What's a downgrade?

Me:  Its something the rating agencies do, you don't need to worry about it, since its complicated.  But anyways we raised the limit and could borrow more, so everyone should have been happy.

Son:  Don't you tell me to save and not borrow?  That borrowing for stuff you don't need is bad.

Me:  Well, yes, but some people think that it's different for governments than people or families.

Son:  But why is it good for me to save, but bad for the government to save?

Me:  You wouldn't understand.

Son:  Okay, so what happened.

Me:  Well, one of the rating agencies downgraded us.

Son:  For taking on more debt?

Me:  No, because our politicians can't agree.

Son:  Don't you always say politicians never agree?  And what does that have to do with debt?

Me:  It's all complicated, someday maybe you will understand, but then it got worse.

Son:  What got worse?  No one wanted our debt after this downgrade?

Me:  Well, actually the debt did even better.

Son:  The debt did better after a downgrade? So what was the big deal?
Anyways, want got worse?

Me:  People started to worry that Italy couldn't pay its debts.

Son:  Couldn't they borrow more like us, so they could pay their debts?

Me:  No, not really, they have too much debt, so they can't borrow more to pay their debt.

Son:  But you said it was good if we borrow more to pay debt, why isn't it good for them?

Me:  It's just different for them, you wouldn't understand.  And if that wasn't enough, people started to worry about France and they would get downgraded.

Son:  Because they didn't raise their debt ceiling? /hopeful face that he has figured it out/

Me:  Nah, only we have a debt ceiling.

Son:  So they need to borrow more to pay their debt, but they can't?
/really expectant face that he has nailed it/

Me:  Not really, they could borrow more.

Son:  So you were just worried they might get downgraded, but didn't have a reason?

Me:  Well, it's complicated, but even though the rating agencies said they wouldn't downgrade, people got worried they aren't better than us, so were still nervous.

Son:  That whole thing sounds stupid.

Me:  Yes, but it ended ok.

Son:  How come?

Me:  Well after people got worried about banks /interrupted/

Son:  You never mentioned banks! /annoyed tone of voice/

Me:  Well, after all the stuff on the countries people got really worried about whether banks can pay their debt.

Son:  Can they?

Me:  So they say, but by the end of the week people were cool with it, because France and Italy sound like they will help their banks.

Son:  But didn't you say that you were worried about the countries?
Me:   Yeah, but now they are going to help the banks.

Son:  But how does that help the countries.

Me:  You wouldn't understand, it is all very complicated

Son:  Maybe you don't understand, it doesn't make any sense! /exasperated voice/

Long pause for thought.

Me:  Hey, let's go catch some fish.

Son:  You sure, or is that going to be too hard for me to understand too? /dripping with sarcasm/

It has been a long couple of weeks.  By the end of it, there have been so many twists and turns it is hard to figure out what is priced in and what isn't.   Guessing at positioning is more of a guess than usual.  People were reacting and putting on trades that made sense at the time.  Current direction of the market was the single biggest investment factor last week.

All else was secondary.  Investors got so hedged and wedged, it is going to take time to get themselves positioned as they want. 

I don't think the data is priced in.  There were so many contradictory reactions, that even an 8 year old could spot them, that it is going to take time for the market to truly digest them.  So, although it is hard to figure out what is priced in, I do believe we have not seen the lows.  Unless the governments enter a "Print it and they will come" mentality across the globe, we will test the lows.  There may be enough bad hedges on and enough hints at printing that we can regain some ground, but much above 1200 on SPX would be a surprise, and without new massive government intervention, 1230 would seem extremely hard to get to.  On the downside, 1100 seems easy to reach, and if it breaks, 1050 or lower is a real possibility.  The short selling ban will once again cause problems on the way down as you remove the short covering bid.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sun, 08/14/2011 - 17:58 | 1559784 rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

That Kid Should be The Federal Reserve Chairman, not The Bernank

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:01 | 1559792 mtthw2
mtthw2's picture

Never could win smarter then a 5th grader either

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:02 | 1559795 runlevel
runlevel's picture

thats quite an articulate son... .........................

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:11 | 1559818 FranSix
FranSix's picture

I know what to say: 'If the Yen continues to melt up, the Japanese may have to allow negative nominal interest rates.'. And then look worried.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:12 | 1559823 Prepared
Prepared's picture

less vodka and more clear thinking please.  Good grief, that suk'd!

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:16 | 1559836 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

I as a 9-yr-old asked my old man why a government didn't make its own money and had to borrow it from a bank. 30 years later I still await the answer...

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:25 | 1559869 FaithEqualsZero
FaithEqualsZero's picture

Easy, cause a magic bullet will find the person responsible for removing the banks ability to steal from us

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:34 | 1559894 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

Well, of course, but my father never said anything. I've come to that realization on my own.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:42 | 1559915 johansen
johansen's picture

I asked my parents why they said "housing prices always rise" in 1999, I was 11 at the time. 

I told them to sell their house in 2005 and buy gold. They are still holding on to it, thinking a 6 fold increase in cash value (down from 9 fold increase at the peak of the market) over the last ~35 years is a good deal. Last year I dumped a third of my money into precious metals. They said "gold is useless". I'm about to tell them i purchased a 4 person-year supply of food.. perhaps they might listen. /sigh. but i doubt it.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:48 | 1559933 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

No matter, your parents have either done a great job with you (you are who you are and got it so young without their help) or you are a success in spite of them!

From this post I see you were 16 and "getting it" about the housing market (smart, insight, applied knowledge), and you are currently taking responsibility for yourself AND thinking of others (who don't listen to you) as well.

You look like a winner to me.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:23 | 1560144 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

My Parents were told by us kids to buy gold and silver along with 15% money markets and associated bank services at the very worst of the 70's and 80's era. They did not do a damned thing.

As it turned out one was accumulating cash to buy a car free and clear on the spot cash. That car lasted 20 years, even for a detriot commute bomb that's gotta be pretty decent.

 

Complex apartment rental with utitlies that time was around 230 a month, when one makes 36K a year salary it's pretty easy to accumulate.

 

Fast forward 30 years. Just about finished a 77K mortgage on a house now assessed at anywhere from 150 to 260+ and winter oil eats up easily what is left over on social security.

 

When the mortgage is paid this year, they will easily triple the income they net each month counting everything. Go figure.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:16 | 1559837 djsmps
djsmps's picture

I, for one, am relieved that this weekend the government isn't madly trying to solve something before the Asian markets open.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:23 | 1559862 Kali
Kali's picture

I don't know.  IF they aren't madly trying to solve something, might mean it's all over and they know they can do nothing whatsoever.  : )

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:50 | 1560209 knukles
knukles's picture

Maybe the clueless truly can't figure what day it is.... 

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:20 | 1559853 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Explain to the 8 year old why 81 memebers of congress (1/5th of the total) are going to Israel!

***************************************************************

The Israel lobby group AIPAC has sponsored the trips to Israel of 81 members of the U.S. House of representatives during their summer recess, in order to win Jewish voters in Congressional districts as well   as their contributions, says American author William Blum.

 

This is in fact bribery. They [U.S. lawmakers] are being paid by a Jewish organization with the expectation that in the future these Congressmen will vote a certain way on those [issues] which concern Israel,” Blum, the author of “Rogue State: A Guide to the World's Only Superpower”, told Press TV's U.S. Desk on Sunday.

 

The visits are sponsored by the American Israel Education Foundation known as the AIEF, an organization affiliated with the all-powerful Israel lobby group, AIPAC. The lobby group brings large delegations of congressmen to Israel every other August.

 

http://www.presstv.ir/usdetail/193966.html

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:30 | 1559881 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I seem to remember something about that in that Constitution thingy. Hmm.

 

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:08 | 1560115 Lazlo Toth
Lazlo Toth's picture

I thought they went out of town to avoid any false flag events.

Isn't that why people are in Gardens right now?

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 22:53 | 1560440 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

 Death to Traitors.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 08:04 | 1560997 falak pema
falak pema's picture

before or after their night with the vestal virgins?

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 23:22 | 1560514 Magnum
Magnum's picture

Imagine if 20% of the US congress went to China, or Dubai, or Chile or Turkey.  Total outrage in the media.  But it's Israel now so all media including talk radio is SILENT.  Is there ever a more obvious example of a bought congress and an pwned media?

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:20 | 1559856 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

And early peeks say's 'risk on'. Makes sense right? Risk on is obviously the default setting. Absent evil anti regime headlines, all is well?

Keep tons of cover cause those who can hang on will be rewarded.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:21 | 1559857 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I would love to get his / her thoughts at 9:30 am tomorrow after the Fed jacks the piss out of the market futures during the wee hours.  You know, wake up and find a huge gap up for absolutely no reason.  Maybe a pre-puberty mind can figure it out.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:27 | 1559875 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

You saying Bernanke has wet dreams?

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:47 | 1559931 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

who doesnt?

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:51 | 1559942 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I am a woman and you are talking to me. You chastised someone on another thread for "talking to the women" and threatening to "take care of him."

Dear heart, what was that all about?

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:13 | 1559992 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

my response to you was "Yes Dear" on the other thread LOVE! what else can a man say to make you happy?

 

and my point over there! back then! in the past!

was that while he engaged you.. the "Women" that the men were planning his end!

you are beyond smart enough to comprehend! I fogave you for secretly loving Bush. Obama is no better.. no worries!

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:27 | 1560154 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Never was a Bush lover, ever. Obama could have taken a high road and surprised us all, but alas, he did not, could not, he was groomed Wallstreet puppet.

Sheeit, I voted for Ralph Nader back in the day, okay? I've come a long way baby!! All good.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 08:02 | 1560991 falak pema
falak pema's picture

having GWB as secret lover has to be every woman's N° 1 nightmare! Sorry Laura! I know you're a saint!

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:21 | 1559858 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

"Hey dad, why do they call it the White House if the Obama's live in it"

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:24 | 1559867 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

"Hey Dad, why do they call this a free country?"

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:33 | 1559886 magpie
magpie's picture

"Dad, why is it called the Federal Reserve when it isn't federal and doesn't have reserves ?"

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:36 | 1560036 RichardP
RichardP's picture

The Fed is an agent of Congress.  Review agency if necessary.  The Fed is Federal.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 22:47 | 1560431 JeffB
Mon, 08/15/2011 - 06:11 | 1560862 Bob Paulson
Bob Paulson's picture

I think you're on the wrong website, RichardP.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:34 | 1559889 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Because calling it The Chocolate House would make too many people in hoods that can't compete on a level playing field cry, Billy.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:09 | 1559987 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Goddamn.

If you want to get racial go do it some other place please. I'm fine with racism just like I'm fine with farts. The shit is real and I would ask you kindly to do it elsewhere.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:37 | 1560040 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you must have a real problem with pretty much all nonwhite people, then

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:13 | 1560126 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I learned to not care what skin color, only the words and actions in public.

Racial Cartoons based on different stereotypes would be censored or banned today, the old ones based on the funnies.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:12 | 1560125 sleepingbeauty
sleepingbeauty's picture

+1

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:52 | 1560214 knukles
knukles's picture

The What House.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:23 | 1559864 Mac1492
Mac1492's picture

 

from the dtc http://www.dtcc.com/downloads/legal/imp_notices/2011/dtc/set/0846-11.pdf

 

 

DTC will support a program to facilitate the industry's clean up of aged fails in select globally 

locked securities.  This notice details the information necessary for firms to participate in this 

program, which is scheduled to occur during the period August 15, 2011 through August 19, 

2011. 

Background

DTC may impose certain restrictions on a security in situations where DTC may become aware of 

certain potentially illegal or otherwise questionable features of a security, its issuer or other principal 

parties.   In addition, DTC may place restrictions when it has been informed by the issuer or its agent, 

regulators or law enforcement, or has other compliance concerns that its Cede & Co certificate 

inventory has been compromised due to unauthorized, altered, fraudulent or counterfeit share issuance. 

If DTC reasonably suspects that all or a portion of its street name holdings of a security, may not be

fungible and freely transferable as required for DTC services, it may decide, with respect to that 

security, to chill one or more of its services or place a global lock on all services, as it deems 

appropriate. 

Impact of a Global Lock and Trade Fails 

A global lock on a security prevents the security from being transferred on the books of DTC and 

otherwise restricts any DTC activity with respect to the security. For so long as the global lock is in 

effect, Participants are unable to settle any further trades in that security, as their inventory is frozen 

and settlement of pending trades will fail.  If counterparties nevertheless continue to trade in a security 

which is globally locked and those trades are submitted to DTC for settlement, those trades will also 

fail and be rejected in DTC’s system.........

 

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:28 | 1559870 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I have these conversations with my kid all the time. Difference is, he gets it that the govt. manipulates and makes the rules up as they go along, so he understands better than this man's son. My son called it that this crisis would calm down and PMs would come down. I kept saying... this time might be different, might be "it." He had full faith it was not.

This actually gets to the heart of an important point: I am having a hard time raising my son to have integrity and not look for the shortcut when all around him at school and in our government that is all that is modeled for him. He tells me I "don't get it" when I challenge him to pick the high road. He says "No one is like that but you Mom." He tells me it is crumbling around him, his classes are larger, his German teacher (wonderful guy) was let go along with the stat teacher and many others. All their schedules are screwed up. The main office is being manned by volunteer parents who don't really know anything but mean well and "try" to help. Don't mail anything to the school, it won't get there. And this is a flagship school, one of the prides of the state.

This post is about more than we would suppose, not just the markets and this weekend.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:35 | 1559888 Kali
Kali's picture

So true, MsC.  Calvinball would explain it well, but your son might not be old enough to recognize the reference.  "Liberty can not be preserved without a common knowledge among the people" -John Adams.  We have reached the point where there is not enough common knowledge about freedom among the people.  They have common knowledge about "Your perfect pair of Jeans" (posting on Yahoo "News" right now).  How ugly would having to kill your own children/grandchildren in the next Civil War be? 

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:30 | 1560168 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

How ugly would having to kill your own children/grandchildren in the next Civil War be?

I have never contemplated this nightmare. Wow. It could happen.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:42 | 1560194 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Culps Hill in Gettysburg was a small Farm. A brother fought brother there. One on the south and other in the north.

The Generals and officers commanding grew up together in West Point learning to play Cadet and got cherry broken at the Mexican war.

Today? Hopefully not a Civil War. It will be on a scale beyond comprehension. For example a container delivered properly against a proper tanker rail car in the night during calm winds through a town of 10,000 sleeping souls. The gas would kill the place.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 07:40 | 1560939 11b40
11b40's picture

This takes me back a long way.  1st semester college U.S. History course, 1967.  Best esay question I ever had.

Border state family, 1840's.  2 sons.  One moves North, one moves deep South.  Fast forward to Civil War.

Write 2 letters, one from each son, to their Mother, explaining how it is that they are willing fight, and possibly kill, each other, in defense if their positions.

This could have been a novel.  After more than 2 hours, the professor took the paper away and ran me off.  As it happened, I had just done a term paper on Manifest Destiny and was loaded for bear.  A+

I'm pretty sure they don't teach hsitory and civics the way they were taught to us. 

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:35 | 1559898 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Yeah. Hard to teach discipline and self sufficiency when all around shows it isn't necessary. For now

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:37 | 1559902 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

+++. Good point. And it does suck. I'm raising three + a Granddaughter. Nihilism isn't really something you want to teach kids, but false hope doesn't sit well either, huh?

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:46 | 1559928 Kali
Kali's picture

Parents often think that "shielding" children from the harsh realities of the world is a good thing.  I am not so sure.  Look at the poor fractured souls who are children, say, in the Congo, or children in places of extreme poverty.  If they survive those places intact (mind & body), they often are very driven to succeed and do whatever it takes to do it.   So, do you weaken your child by "shielding" , even just a little bit, or, take the rose colored glasses off and have them see the world as it is, risking mental or physical damage?  Hard decision. 

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:10 | 1560120 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

My folks did not shield us too much, what they did instead was ship us to a trip or somewhere away when something important is going on. They essentially got away with murder in that house without us knowing a thing until we would get together decades later and catch up.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:52 | 1559944 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

You hang in there Sweet Heart!!

Your Boy will see real men in action and he will see the reward of these Treasonous Fucks!

You may not approve of the methods but a spring cleaning is coming, people are sick and tired of being ass raped for NO GOOD REASON!

"We the People" are going to get their 6% back out of the FED in Pounds of Flesh!

The Government is OWNED by EVERYONE! but "We the People" and the Government Cares! about EVERYONE! but "We the People"!

You are Loved and You and Your Son will have your day in the sun..

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:39 | 1560045 trav7777
trav7777's picture

we're a ghetto nation now...cheat lie steal, whatever you have to do to get dat paper

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 21:01 | 1560228 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Truer than you know. My son was not supposed to have electronics at school, he accidentally took an MP3 player (he is a good kid, he never gets in trouble, I almost wish he would). I was pissed with him because I had to go with him after school to get it back for him. I'M SUPPOSED TO BE PISSED this is the point of the rule.

When we arrive, there is a room full of 30 kids, getting their electronics back from the staff. NO parents, I'm the only one. People are having to stay late just to deal with these kids whining for their electronics when they are the ones who broke the rules. I told my kid that I wasn't willing to wait and that he could do without his electronics, that it seemed to me a normal, natural, consequence for breaking the rules. I was not loud, but many heard me and saw me leaving. One of the staff rushed over to "calm me down" and gave my son a hall pass for the morning so that he could leave class to get his device. I stopped her dead in her tracks (my son was so embarrassed) and said, "Let me get this straight, you are going to give him a hall pass, to leave class, in the morning, so that he can get his MP3 player?" She nodded yes, thinking she was solving a "problem" I am sure. The room was dead quiet, all eyes were on us. I said, "Gosh, if I knew I could get a hall pass and get out of my morning class, I'd bring my MP3 player every day. Not only that, but won't it get confiscated again, isn't he breaking the rules having it in his possession all day?" She had no answer except to put her arm around my son and say that he was a good kid. I was sooo pissed. The kids were mumbling things like, "I couldn't live without mine" trying to reason with the irate parent (I'm sooo unreasonable).

The story does not convey the mood in there. The kids are prisoners, they hate the staff, they all have chips on their shoulders and are entitled, put out that they have to wait and be dealt with one at a time.  It was a free-for-all in there. Kids threatening kids, smarting off to staff (who are doing them favors), one was clearly cussing a parent out on his cell phone (he is not supposed to have). I left there sooo pissed off. Goddamned zoo.

I hate how you overgeneralize (you do) but you got that one right, ghetto.

Private school, what a joke, just had a principal stabbed in a christian school by a kid. There is nowhere to hide from what is upon us.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 23:27 | 1560528 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Check out: "Some Lessons from the Underground History of American Education", by John Taylor Gatto, found in "Everything You Know is Wrong", ISBN 978-1-56731-637-7, pgs 274-287

"Soon, we all will have to choose between what is easy, and what is right."  -- Albus Dumbledore

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 01:29 | 1560713 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

We were not allowed a goddamn thing. Even watches had to be manual wind up.

At that time little basic beep games like baseball, football etc with the speaker disabled could be and were played under the desk.. however the clicking of the keys on those bulky early generation games in the late 70's got em suspended.

 

Take a step further, tie your Wireless calculator into a server in another part of the building before a test. There you can access answers rather quickly. Now tests are given in faraday caged rooms where jammers at work.

Christ. People cannot even navigate without a GPS or anything these days. Mindless drones, I tell you.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:03 | 1560102 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Well, when we were 8, the biggest question is why. followed by why not?

Answers included just because, I said so, that the way it is etc etc etc.

When we were 8 we spent much time in the "Good" Libraries answering our own questions while avoiding the clerks

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:15 | 1560130 Lazlo Toth
Lazlo Toth's picture

Good on ya.

You can tell him that you are raising him to be honest, and have pride because if everyone did this, they we would not have the problems we do today.

And someday, it may be him that sits in some seat of control, and has to use his decency and morals to do the right thing. He has to learn to do it the right way.

Instead of destroying the free world.

 

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 21:32 | 1560268 knukles
knukles's picture

You speak of character, MsC.  And only you and a very few chance individuals in life are capable of developing such in your child.  It is not channeled through laws, regulations, restrictions, politics, mathematics or science. 
The quality of a man is determined through his own values systems discovered through the filaments of philosophy and religion. 
Oh yes, many shall begin the argument concerning religion, but by such I mean the great thoughts of man, thre lessons, the information set through which we as humans consider the very who we as individuals are relative to all other people, places and things.  The travesties oft cited as caused by religion (wars, etc) are ostensably and separately the abuse of such institutions for alternative political, social and economic purposes by manipulative hypocrytical and generally evil men.  But character is indeed forund writ large in the library under those two topics.  Conversely, we do not search spiritual pages for knowledge of mathematics or high energy plasma physics.  Our challenge of which you speak is whether the tree bears good fruit if you will. 
But is it not through that which we do, not what we say that determines character?  Is it not knowing first and foremost ourself that blesses us with an understanding of the word serenity and knowledge and experience of of peace that is the very founding of character? 
Remain at your task with serenity of reslove, for you are indeed making ground, marking progress.  For has your child by its own observations not suggested thet it is you alone who posess such qualities?  Fear not, for it is now his/her choice as to the adoption of the way of reason.

Indeed, it is exactly this line of reasoning of which it was my responsibility to respond to a question of me you posed some weeks ago.  A true education in the classic sense is meant to be of the great thoughts, the true groiunding of choice between right and wrong, civility and disorder.  Not whether G&L materials are being presented in schools.  For it is within the great thoughts that other considrerations are resolved.  Unfortunately, our secular and materialistic society has devolved to the lowest common denominator with the pursuit of education bounded by the Hegelian dalect and Bernaysian perceptions management.   I speak of whether we develop generations of politicians or generations of  statespersons.

Remain the beacon of light upon the hill, for those who shall see are able to respond.  Those who do not see it, cannot respond.  In a challenge such as this (and I have indeed raised children) I personally have found that with the instruction based upon principles, not personalities, that the yoke is easy, it's burden light, it's success ultimately real.  That you even care, is so far removed from the reality.  Rmember, the world we hold today is our product.  Our genertaion now leads such.  If it be difficult, it is we have done badly, to which living amends via instillation of quality thought within our children is the only possible path to peace within.  

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 07:38 | 1560935 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Character and an inner guidance system is the best I can hope for. Good post.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 08:00 | 1560984 falak pema
falak pema's picture

cruise missile control...

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:30 | 1559880 Mallenet
Mallenet's picture

Amazing - when I was 8 I played with something that got hard if I rubbed it right and got soft if I folded it in half!  Nowadays, that 'silly putty' between my legs just stays soft!  I guess I played that market out!

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:59 | 1560094 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Or dispense liquid over your head backwards.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:55 | 1559951 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I guess I could have tried to write something title "Circular reasoning and cognitive dissidence in the markets"......

Has anyone else noticed the term "Cognitive Dissonance" showing up more and more often in the media as of late?

Interesting.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 18:59 | 1559959 magpie
magpie's picture

It's unhealthy to spend much time googling one self lol

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:09 | 1559988 oogs66
oogs66's picture

CD is self sufficient in all respects :)

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:19 | 1560004 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Absolutely! They're looking for you man!!!

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 22:20 | 1560355 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If I hide behind the Hulk they'll never see me. :)

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 22:32 | 1560394 Hulk
Hulk's picture

You can't hide CD, you are now the 21st century Buddha, and everyone wants a piece of the Buddha, whether for good or bad!

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 23:15 | 1560454 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

A distant family member found out this week that I am the Cognitive Dissonance of Zero Hedge. I don't advertise the fact to my (extended) family for various reasons. So what was the reaction from this distant family member?

Anger, lots of anger directed towards me.

How dare I stir the pot and endanger the rest of the family. Regardless of whether this is actually true or not, it illustrates a point perfectly. Some sheep just want to sleep and they will fight anyone to remain asleep, including any real or imagined threats to their peaceful sheep sleep.

I pointed out his cognitive dissonance, that he is obviously reading Zero Hedge for the contrary point of view. So why would knowing who I am make any difference, that he was essentially the pot calling the kettle black.......well, let's just say he didn't see his CD.

I wonder if he will out me? That would of course put him in even more danger.....if one is to believe he is in danger to begin with. When I pointed that out to him he went ballistic. :>)

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 07:41 | 1560941 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

To CD's relative,

Get over it, no one gives a shit.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:23 | 1560013 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

No. I haven't. But my heart would leap with joy in that world. Imagine????

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:00 | 1560031 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Then you haven't been reading the main stream media because 30 minutes of reading this morning and I came up with 3 references. The NYT, the WaPo and Yahoo. And that was without even trying.

I've also noticed that it is showing up more often in the guest posts Tyler presents here on ZH. And Tyler is using it more and more himself. Certain words are strong indicators of coming change. CD is one of them.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 21:02 | 1560229 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

CD has been a catchphrase at theoildrum for years now...at least 2005.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 22:21 | 1560351 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It is the frequency of use that is important.

I'm not surprised since theoildrum is not traditional mainstream media and it has a reputation for taking on difficult subjects, at least more so than the MSM. But not all (contrary) web sites and blogs use the term let alone the MSM. Automatic Earth has been using it for awhile. Business Insider not that often. Mish not so much. Charles Smith all the time and for a long time. It was used now and then by Tyler and/or his guests until about two or three months ago and in particular the last 2 or 3 weeks. And so on.

I read a lot of blogs every week as well as MSM. I pick up on different words when they enter the collective consciousness by way of usage. My premise is simple. Words have meaning. Specific words have predictive powers. CD is one of those words. It was one of the reasons why I selected it as my ZH ID. I do not do searches for the term, but rather just rely on my general reading to pick up trends. And it is popping up all over the place lately among other words.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 23:33 | 1560540 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Some thoughts have certain sounds...what is the sound of cognitive dissonance?  A minor 9th chord?

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 06:10 | 1560860 falak pema
falak pema's picture

CD : Has it improved your sex life, finding that your avatar is now the Internet/media buzz word?

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 21:18 | 1560249 TwelfthVulture
TwelfthVulture's picture

I've noticed.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:26 | 1560019 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

You are very possibly a wise individual CD. The ugly history suggest though that you will not live to see yourself vindicated for speaking out.

But history does suggest that you will be vindicated.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 19:50 | 1560065 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

Holy shit ......... Just on Faux News

48 Million people on food stamps !

When did that go up ? I recall 42 million a few months ago ?

Jesu's H Christ !

Look at those dow futures/ Everything is fixed ! woohoo !

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:38 | 1560188 toady
toady's picture

I heard 45 a month ago...

42, 45, 48...

Bullish for SNAP!

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:56 | 1560222 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

It was 45.8MM the other day. Gone up again?

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:24 | 1560149 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Kids were not allowed to solve problems. Today they cannot even initilate anything on thier own.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 20:35 | 1560180 Ponzi Unit
Ponzi Unit's picture

Stop the Ponzimonium? I got this reply from the CFTC -- commissioner sounds sympathetic, but progress is slow:

 

Chilton, Bart to me show details 4:40 PM (3 hours ago)   


Thanks for the email.  Like you, I remain concerned about financial markets and how they have morphed.  Massive passive traders (see my speeches if you’d like more on these) and the high frequency traders (those I call cheetahs, due to their speed) have at times moved markets in ways that I think nobody anticipated.  Still, some disagree that they may have an impact.  That is why, since 2008, I have supported the improvisation of mandatory position limits. They are the law of the land now and I am hopeful that my colleagues will agree that we need to implement them soon. In this regard, I am hopeful that we will approve such a position limit rule within the next 6-8 weeks. That doesn’t mean it will actually be implemented as you and I would like (it may not be effective for another few months). However, the passage of a position limit rule is a key step to actually having such limits implemented soon.

With regard to the cheetahs, I think they need to be tested, registered and potentially limited.  On May 1st, as you know, the price of silver dropped 12% in 13 minutes on a Sunday evening in electronic trading. That certainly seems suspect. By the way, on June 7thin the evening, the price of natural gas dropped 7% in – get this – 14 seconds. Seconds!  I mentioned to a reporter the other day that I think the cheetah trading is parasitical. I’m not sure of the value to the markets of such trading.  I think when there is spare liquidity (like on those two dates) that a cheetah or just a few other traders may be able to move markets significantly.  I will continue to work on how to best handle this circumstance. The new financial reform law (Dodd Frank) does not require the agency to regulate the cheetahs, but here is an example where I believe the regulator needs to be proactive and do something positive.

Finally, I wanted to let you know that I while I am disappointed in the pace of our silver investigation (as I said last October in a public statement), that it is still ongoing. I meet on silver regularly. A day does not pass when I don’t have a conversation about silver. If the agency does not say something publically by the third week of September, I will do so (yet again).That may not be an comfort to you, which is understandable, but I am doing what I can as one of five commissioners at the CFTC.

I did want to included the graph below showing the price of gold and silver. I thought you might be interested.  Furthermore, this week’s Commitment of Traders data was just released – as of Tuesday, August 9, the four largest longs in COMEX silver (all futures and options combined) accounted for 16.1% of open interest, with the four largest shorts accounting for 30.4% of open interest.  This data covers both commercial and non-commercial traders together.

Thank you again for your email.

B

Bart Chilton, Commissioner

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st Street, NW

Washington, DC  20581

Telephone:(202) 418-5060

Fax:(202) 418-5620

cftc.gov

 

Stop the Ponzimonium.

Report financial frauds at 1-866-FON-CFTC (366-2382).

 

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 22:10 | 1560334 dbTX
dbTX's picture

At this moment, the entire market is a financial fraud

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 07:42 | 1560944 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I guess it is hard to report the entire thing.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 21:27 | 1560261 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

For an 8 yo to say this is pushing it slightly...

I raise my kids old school.... My 14 yo understands more about this world than most adults...

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 08:38 | 1561074 Slap That Taco
Slap That Taco's picture

"Old school," huh?  National Socialism?

You sure that avatars of old SS units are what you want to display here? I mean, just sayin,.....

Sorry, I'm new here.  First time seeing this.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 09:22 | 1561209 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You obviously know nothing of my posting habits and choice of topics here....

BTW, kudos on getting the avatar. I tangled with a holocaust denier who kept on insisting I was jewish. Now that was rich....

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 15:33 | 1562665 Slap That Taco
Slap That Taco's picture

The 10th got what was coming to them.  Their best leader was Harmel who survived the war.

No offense intended, just the usual sarcasm.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 15:42 | 1562697 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

None taken... at least by the standards of the Hedge

The 10th's record was all but exemplary.... Frundsberg, Wiking, Hohenstaufen and 17th were also "well behaved"....

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 07:43 | 1560947 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

By the end of this conversation, I imagine Johnny is ready to put his fishing pole away and take his baseball bat out of the closet. You can imagine what he plans to do with it.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!