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Guest Post: New Asian Union Means The Fall Of The Dollar
Submitted by Brandon Smith from Alt Market
New Asian Union Means The Fall Of The Dollar
One of the most frustrating issues to haunt the halls of alternative economic analysis is the threat of misrepresentative terminology. For instance, when the U.S. government decided to back the private Federal Reserve in lowering the interest rates on lending windows to European banks last month, they did not call this a bailout, even though that’s exactly what it was. They did not call it quantitative easing, or fiat printing, or a hyperinflationary landmine; rarely does bureaucracy ever apply honest terminology to their subversive activities. False terminology is the bane of every honest analyst, because in order for them to educate and awaken those who are unaware of the truth, they must first battle through the daunting muck of the general public’s horrifically improper perceptions and vocabulary.
The chain of financial events taking place over the past decade in Asia have been correspondingly mislabeled and misunderstood. What some economists see as total collapse is actually a new and decidedly prophetic (or engineered) transition. What some naively see as the “natural” progression of globalism, is actually a distinctly deliberate program of centralization meant to further the goals of world economic and political totalitarianism. Asia, and most especially China, is a Petri dish for elitist psychopaths. What we see as suffocating collectivism in this region of the world today is the exact social schematic intended for the West tomorrow. Call it whatever you will, but on the other side of the Pacific, like the eerie smile of a sinister clown, sits fabricated fate.
The genius of globalization is not in how it “works”, but in how it DOESN’T work. Globalization chains mismatched cultures together through circumstance and throws us into the deep end of the pool. If one sinks, we all sink, enslaving us with interdependency. The question one must ask, then, is if all sovereign economies are currently tied together in the same way? The answer is no, not anymore. Certain countries have moved to insulate themselves from the domino effect of debt implosion, one of the primary examples being China.
Since at least 2005, China has been taking the exact steps required to counter the brunt of a global debt collapse; not enough to make it untouchable, but enough that its infrastructure will survive. One could even surmise that China’s actions indicate a foreknowledge of the events that would eventually escalate in 2008. How they knew is hard to say, but if the available evidence causes you to lean towards collapse as a Hegelian creation (and it should if you are paying any attention), then China’s activity begins to make perfect sense. If a globalist insider told you that in a few short years the two most powerful financial empires in the world were going to topple like bowling pins under the weight of their own liabilities, what would you do? Probably separate yourself as much as possible from the diseased dynamic and construct your own replacement system. This is what China has done…
China started with the circulation of Yuan denominated bonds, like T-Bonds, meant to securitize Chinese debt, creating an outlet for the currency to go global. China’s considerable forex and bond reserves make this move a rather suspicious one. With so much savings at their disposal, why bother to issue bonds at all? Why threaten the traditional export based economy and the uneven trade advantage that the country had been thriving on for decades? The success of Chinese bonds would mean the internationalization of the Yuan, a floating valuation of the currency, and the loss of the desirable trade deficit with the U.S. Back in 2005, this all would surely seem like a novelty that was going nowhere fast. Of course, today China’s actions suggest an unprecedented push to convert to a consumer hub at the center of a massive trading bloc. To put it simply; China knew ahead of schedule that the U.S. was no longer going to be a viable customer, and reliance on such a country would spell disaster. They have been preparing to break away from America’s consumer markets and the dollar for some time.
In 2008, after China announced the use of the Yuan in cross border trade on a limited basis, I began to write about the possibility that China was preparing to break from the Greenback. For the past few years my primary focus in terms of finance has been the East as a kind of warning bell for the state of the global economy. In 2009 and 2010, it became absolutely clear that China (with the help of global corporate entities) was developing the skeleton of a new system; a trade network that that had the capacity to supplant the U.S. and end the dollar’s world reserve status.
Since then, Yuan bonds have spread across the planet, China has dropped the dollar in bilateral trade with Russia, the ASEAN trading bloc has formed into a tight shell of export partners, and that is just the beginning. Two major announcements in 2011 have solidified my belief that a complete dump of the dollar by eastern interests is near…
First was the announcement that China was actively and openly pursuing the establishment of a central bank for the whole of ASEAN, with the Yuan utilized as the reserve currency instead of the dollar:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/27/us-china-asean-financial-idUST...
This news, of course, has barely been reported on in the mainstream. As I discussed at the beginning of this article, the terminology surrounding economic developments has been diluted and twisted. When China states that an ASEAN central bank is in the works, we need to point out what this really means; the ASEAN trading bloc is about to become the Asian Union. The only missing piece of the puzzle is something that I have been warning about for at least a couple years, ever since my days at Neithercorp (see “Migration Of The Black Swans” as a recent example). This key catalyst is the inclusion of Japan in ASEAN, something which many said would take five to ten years to unfold. News released this Christmas speaks otherwise:
Japan has indeed entered into an agreement to drop the dollar in currency exchange with China and has expressed interest in melting into ASEAN. Japan has also struck somewhat similar though slightly more limited deals with India, South Korea, Indonesia, and the Philippines almost simultaneously:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-28/japan-india-seal-15-billion-currency-swap-arrangement-to-shore-up-rupee.html
This means that the two largest foreign holders of U.S. debt and Greenbacks will soon be in a position to tap into an export market far more profitable than that of America, and that all of this trade will be facilitated by currencies OTHER THAN THE DOLLAR. It means the end of the dollar as the world reserve and probably the end of the dollar as we know it.
Japan’s inclusion in this process was inevitable. With its economy already in steep deflationary decline, the Yen skyrocketing in value against the dollar making exports difficult, as well as the ongoing nuclear meltdown problem at Fukushima, the island nation has been on the edge of complete collapse. Its only option, therefore, is to sink into the chaotic sees, or float like a buoy tied to an Asian Union. There can be absolutely no doubt now that Japan will soon implement the latter solution.
The dilemma at this point becomes one of timing. Now that we are certain that two of the largest economies in the world are about the dump the Greenback, what signals can we watch when preparing for the event? My belief is that the trigger will come squarely from the U.S. and the Federal Reserve, either as legislation to heavily tax Asian imports, a renewed threat of further credit downgrades like that which S&P brought down in August, or the announcement of more open quantitative easing. Any and all of these issues could very well arise in the course of the next 6-12 months, QE3 being a basic no-brainer. ASEAN could, certainly, drop the dollar immediately after their central bank apparatus is put in place, resulting in a much more volatile trade war atmosphere (also useful for full global centralization later down the road). The point is, we are truly at a place in our economic life when ANYTHING is possible.
My hope is that as our predictions in the alternative economic community are proven correct with every passing quarter, more Americans will take note, and prepare. I can say quite confidently that we have entered the first stages of the catastrophic phase of the economic implosion. All the fantastic and terrible consequences many once considered theory or science fiction, are about to become reality. Practical solutions have been offered by myself and many others. The only thing left now is to take action, or ride the tidal wave of destruction like so much driftwood. We can help to determine the outcome, or we can be idle spectators. In everything, there is a choice…
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Motorcycle crashes seem apt.
You can see it happening, the gravel, or Diesel oil on the bend, you look at it unable to look away or change what is happening and in slow motion you ride straight into the curve, front wheel on an inevitable trajectory. Then it all becomes insanely fast stop motion.
It's known as target fixation, and is a significant cause of motorcycle crashes. The solution is trivial. You look away. You look at the successful exit and if you manage to do that easy simple thing, the crash doesn`t happen. Even if you do hit the oil or gravel and the wheel slips for a fraction of a second, the trajectory you take will be based on the successful exit, not the ditch at the side of the road.
Try not looking at the problem, look at the solution. It is a remarkably difficult thing to do.
On the Sunday Morning Ride I was clipping northbound, 80-100mph (fast but not insane) on the Bolinas Lagoon, CA hiway 1, parallel to and just behind a buddy.
Suddenly, I have a crystal clear view of the entire undercarriage (headers, collector, oil pan, etc) of his CBR929RR. Having no other reference, I immediately presumed we were sliding together toward the Lagoon and preparing to get wet in the shallow water just off the pavement.
Quickly, after not feeling the friction of the pavement against my leather, I realized something else was adrift, which was my friend doing a "breakie" at freeway speed because he saw the CHP up ahead. He was fond of showing off his breakie prowess, and this was one time it might have been good to short circuit the radar gun if one was in use.
Not going to happen.
Asian countries are to scared of china, and they don't wanna give them more power.
Also, the yuan is clouded in mistery, fraud and lies of the commu system.
Nop nop nop.
As opposed to the mystery, fraud and lies of the western banking system.
Yes, because Japan and the US have been so close. I still remember how Bush literally strong armed the Japanese government into Irak. Finally, they agreed to do some mine sweeping. What they got in return was a lot of gas in the subway. Who do you think they blame for that?
"Ultimately, Asahara outlined a doomsday prophecy, which included a World War III instigated by the United States. "
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aum_Shinrikyo
And now Iran? The war complex in the US has gone insane and countries are choosing sides.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/30_Jim_Rickards_-_US_to_go_to_War_with_Iran,_Oil_%26_Gold_to_Spike.html
"The dilemma at this point becomes one of timing", blah blah blah. A wasted paragraph, because Brandon discounts that concept in the next paragraph; "we have entered the first stages of the catastrophic phase of the economic implosion".
So this is an ASEAN plot to take over reserve currency status? No, it sounds like an attempt to insulate themselves from the coming global financial, economic and monetary collapse, or at least come out of it with an upper hand.
Yes, ROLO. Buy Pandas, or anything else made of gold or silver.
Sell HL - please.
Deus Ex Machina: Speak.
Neo: The program 'Smith' has grown beyond your control. Soon he will spread through this city as he spread through the Matrix. You cannot stop him, but I can.
Deus Ex Machina: We don't need you. WE NEED NOTHING!.
Neo: If that's true, then I've made a mistake and you should kill me now.
Deus Ex Machina: What do you want?
Neo: Peace.
How about, no country be allowed to have more than 100 million people, and each country must have its own currency. This prevents large countries from dominating the small, and stops the path to a world government be removing the incentive for small countries to give up their sovereignty. When a country hits 100 million it has to split.
How about, since corporations are persons, they must die when they are 80 years old?
Only if it applies to unions and 501-3x's, too.
As Adam Smith pointed out in the Wealth of Nations, when ownership is separated from management (i.e. the actual production process required to obtain the capital), the latter will inevitably begin to neglect the interests of the former, creating dysfunction within the company.[36] Some maintain that recent events in corporate America may serve to reinforce Smith's warnings about the dangers of legally protected collectivist hierarchies.[37]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporation
If corporations were persons, they would be psychopaths.
Loading a bit of TVIX and some Puts for January on ES at EOD
TVIX back to 35-or 40 with France or EFSF downgrade
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tvix
Have a nice 2012 every1
Puts on MCP here. Looking for 13.
China? Those sandal wearing goldfish tenders? Pish posh.
boy, if brandon is right, this would be one large economic nuclear bomb that japan drops on the u.s. guess it makes up for hiroshima and nagasaki..........
Speaking of dollars, has anyone ever invoked this, and what did you get in exchange? Thanks
12 USC 411, "...Federal reserve notes shall be redeemed for lawful money on demand..."
Would not touch a Bwany Fwank with a 30-foot pole....
FRN's were allegedly redeemed for United States Currency, notes looked similar but no mention of fed res and some seals were inked in red or blue. I believe they stopped redemption in 2006? I'm only repeating what someone had mentioned months ago, maybe feb or mar in comments on this site. Anyhow, if you go to coin shows you will sometimes come across these notes, just look at the dates on the notes.
Baldrick
FRN's were std fare in Kennedy's presidency.
He decided to stop using them, and had the Treasury start printing United States Notes, the $5.00 bill first, has a RED seal.
Still can be found in Coin Shops. A little while later, he had his cerebellum/skull plastered all over Dealy Plaza.
After LBJ took the reins, the FRN's came back(odd eh?), and the US Notes were His-Tory.
Seems the world is moving to economic "blocks" all against american power and influence
Celac-Latin America
EEC-russia- eurasian economic community
GCC-Arab
SCO-China
and so on and they all want their own currencys or non-dollar currencies.......we have done a good job of pissing of the world..........
People have got to be pissed off about the financial toxic MBS-et.al. junk with triple-A ratings they were all loaded up on.
Go ZSL! 4 more cents!
Sold! to U!
Off to spend the proceeds....
China has been playing the demographic ponzi game for a very long time. Being the last to lose is not the objective
+10. A great summary.
i know, you will say this information is off topic.
it is not, it is right on topic with this whole asean
proposal. it is in the scale of the numbers. everyone
knows we just don't think big enough, or small enough.
so please give this your undivided attention as you are
very fortunate to be conscious at this moment, these moments
of life in this galaxy. william b could do a wonderful ben
printing his way to 2012 and transferring digital money to the
galactic center via a worm hole all for the purpose of reinvigorating
the liquidity needs of the spiral arms. i leave you with this.
apologies for the length of the post but it could not be avoided.
so .. ( template )
http://www.enchantedlearning.com/subjects/astronomy/solarsystem/where.shtml
it seems, if i have this close to correct,
......
the axis of the rotation of the earth is going to align
with the axis of the galactic spiral and "coincidentally"
this will happen as the plane of the solar system passes through
the plane of the galactic spiral at an angle of 60' ; the earth,
the sun and galactic center on the central plane (equator) of the
galaxy at/on 12/21/2012 as the sun and solar system pass from the
southern galactic hemisphere to the northern galactic hemisphere.
this particular state of (passing thru) balance moment happens
once every 24000-26000 years. so this might be? ( i suspect not)
the first time in the history of the universe that a conscious being
knowingly experiences this. it will be available again in 24000 years
if you should miss it. patience is a virtue with its own rewards.
but seriously, the world of people should soon design some
monitoring stations and the like to study the effects of this event on
the magnetic fields of the earth /weather - temperature changes/
solar output variations and like that. we should be spending every
last borrowed nickle the country can steal collecting these data.
long term study and data set of course - multi year "event" emerging out
of an instant in time.
. .....
here some astro type facts as they are presented today.
.
galactic rotation period. = once every 250 million years.
galactic diameter = 90,000 - 100000 light years.
galactic circumference = 314000 light years
galactic thickness? width = 3000-7000 light years.
there are roughly 6000 visible stars, naked eye, in our sky
of which about 4 are extra-galactic objects/entities.
total stars in the galaxy = 200-400 billion.
velocity of the solar system around galactic center = 155 miles/second.
velocity of the earth in orbit around the sun = 18.5 miles/second.
so it seems the solar system is "undulating" in its rotation
of the galactic center about the galactic equator. ( but wouldn't other stars in the
system
do the same? ) so is this a unique feature or peculiar to certain
bands from the center?
the solar system is in the orion spur / spiral arm ........
.
the change is upon us. wondering concerning electrical and
magnetic flips and flops.
.
http://www.infinitelymystical.com/essays/2012-astronomy.html
The Actual Astronomy of 2012 and the
Sacred Triple Rebirth of the Sun
An Essay by Thomas Razzeto
© Copyright 2008 by Thomas Razzeto
....
"What Will Actually Happen on December 21, 2012
Venus will start things off by rising above the horizon at 4:46 AM. It will be extremely
easy to see in the black predawn sky and it will lead the sacred tree on its journey
across the sky throughout this special day. The fact that Venus will rise before the sun
should not be taken lightly with regards to the question of why the Maya picked 2012. Jim
Reed, editor of the Institute of Maya Studies’s newsletter, said:
I think it is important that they chose a date of a winter solstice and a
winter solstice when Venus would rise up before the sun. Venus is there
to witness the rebirth.
Yes, of course the Maya would have had a vision that included the planets, especially
Venus, which they tracked with a very precise calendar. The Maya were so concerned about
Venus that they could even predict when it would pass as a black dot across the face of
the sun. This is called a Venus transit and there will be one in June 2012.
Now, let's get back to the unfolding of the day. At 5:11 AM, the moment of the winter
solstice will arrive and the sun will be reborn with the days becoming longer. Mercury
will rise at 5:23 AM and it will be visible even with dawn's increasing light. It will be
the second object on the sacred tree. Next, the sun will enter our world with a blaze of
color at 6:29 AM to become the most important object on the sacred tree. Obviously, by
this time, the sky will be so bright that both Mercury and Venus will be obscured from
view but nonetheless, they will continue their journey across the sky. Pluto, which is
never visible to the naked eye, will rise at 7:03 AM and finally Mars will rise at 8:24
AM, making it the last object on the sacred tree. Notice that the sun will rise 103
minutes after Venus and that Mars will rise 115 minutes after the sun. This means that
the sun will be close to the middle of these two planets! (10)
A few hours later, at 10:05 AM, the center of the sun will be exactly on the galactic
equator. This is the galactic alignment of 2012 and the peak of the celestial love
making! This is the moment of cosmic orgasms!" ...
.
The Actual Astronomy of 2012 - Absolutely Amazing!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGPcjMe6Qlw&feature=related
"the change is upon us. wondering concerning electrical and
magnetic flips and flops."
This I believe in.
Trying to nail it down to a specific day and time, no disrespect, is folly. Like trying to pick a markets exact top or bottom.
i do not think to nail it down but we should describe, document it as best we can as it won't come again for a long, long, .... time. it is a gift that we apparently would rather ignore because we have so much more stupid shit to do, need to cater to. speaking of jobs. a global research project would be a good start. i propose we do it and fast. data for 6 months prior and 6 months
after the event. to start
Every item I ordered from LL Bean this Christmas was found upon delivery to have been made in China. So much for the woodsy All-American outdoors image they sell in their catalog.
Went to buy frozen ORGANIC green beans for Christmas dinner and noticed a new brand in my grocer's freezer, Village Grown. Prominently marked "USDA Organic", when I turned the bag over I was informed by the finest of small print that the frozen beans had been GROWN IN CHINA!!! Forgetting the horrors of Chinese farming practices for just a moment, how can freezing vegetables and shipping them 7,500 miles be profitable?
Not sure how smart the Chinese have to be to realize that this relationship can't last forever. Any idiot can see that America's economy is being stripped clean. If some form of economic nationalism doesn't take hold in this country soon, there won't be any saving what remains.
Wilson Audio nearby makes some of the most costly high-end home loudspeakers on earth. Wilson marketing makes hay of their authentic American manufacturing....which now includes drivers made in China by a Swedish-owned company.
"One could even surmise that China’s actions indicate a foreknowledge of the events that would eventually escalate in 2008"
umm well yeah - ALL HEADS OF STATE KNEW THEN THAT OIL WAS PEAKING LONG BEFORE 2008.
no cheap oil - no debt servicing - collapse.
pretty simple math
guess what else they know? that the human project is currently in overshoot and a die off is ordained - so they are helping us out by slamming us into a brick wall at 500mph - or in other words...a KILL OFF - for our own good of course.
one of the best pieces of 2010 on this very subject was penned by "the nutty professor" antal fekete: AsiaTimesOnline::fekete0nChina&Japan (paste):
"Here is the explanation of the Chinese puzzle from a non-Chinese perspective. The 1972 popping up of Nixon in China (which was worth composing an opera on the theme) started the pilgrimage of young uncorrupted Chinese scholars to American universities. Well, at least those among them who were economists, monetary scientists, and banking experts have been thoroughly corrupted and brainwashed."
altho nixon "popping up" in china in '72 is [to me] a unique perspective, i agree with the rest his ideas as presented in this great essay, which may have led to my ongoing development of the idea that our banksters are the baddest assets around! [too bad they work for 'somebody else', eh?]
i also appreciate his work on gold-based financing for commerce & trade [2011-05-14]: Sources and Remedies of Financial Instability: Gold Bond: Life-Saver for the U.S. and World Economy
notice the flaming pyramid cap stone in the back, on the wall.
asean? hmm..why does that sound so "queen's chamber onic"?
re: image .. for above mental image think huge pancake,
of spiral arms and a coin at sixty degrees undulating at a period
of 24000 years which at the special moment of balance has a
satellite that perfectly aligns in rotational orientation with the
galactic center, "coincidentally" .
the symbol is actually a band of harvested rice. you see the biggest problem for the west is that the western krap is not allowed in.
the move by japan to use the yuan/yen as the medium of exchange for trade and banking relationships is new in that was officially announced by prime minister hatoyama in his 2009 east asia community manifesto http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/hatoyama/statement/200911/15singapore_e.... but it is a decision toiled over for many years because a national sense of obligation to the usa for saving the nation post ww2 is a huge issue of honor(face). i was in tokyo in 1969-70 when the security pact with japan was renewed. there were massive student demonstrations against the continued occupation of japan by the usa. those students are the leaders of japan today. japan has known for awhile that it must decouple from the usa economically and it has known it's new partner must be china. asian politics and economics sans the sub continent has a several thousand year history. asean was formed as a counter, not only to the usa, but to the exploitation of both japan and china. both are envied for their culture, political, economic and potential military might. despite western interpretations, japan tacitly concedes china's preeminence in the region. there is a lot of mutual respect between the countries despite the nanking nonsense the west is led to believe is evidence of great animosity.
china and russia formed the shang hai cooperation .org(sco originally known as the shang hai 5) as a response to the unipolar world of the usa in the 90s. the goal is to create a multipolar world. it has approached iran, india, pakistan and japan to consider and provide input for it's goal. joining this group with the asean group( apec without the western nations of apec) makes the potential association of 2/3 of the world population, almost as much of the world economy and a huge land mass. once the association is solidified it will rule the world.
the only alternative, given the history of the world with regard to the flailings of failing empire, for the usa is war and the sooner the better. the formal agreement between japan and china accelerates the timetable. expect the japanese economy to be trashed in 2012 as a depraved attempt to bring it back into the strangling tentacles of the usa and some pretext for war with china and russia to begin with a proxy(iran) and some force exerted upon india to make a firm decision on who's side it fight on as it squeezed from both sides.
Sometimes comments seem really informed and enegaging at first and they pull you in. Then they spin off to crazytown by the end.
Hardly surprising that China figured out the demise of the US consumer and productive economy ahead of time. After all, US CEOs planned it with them by transferring huge numbers of US jobs and factories over to China.
"peace, stability and security."
what? the dollar doesn't provide that?
Bali hosts 44th ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/189818.html
Not to detract from what everyone already knows and really does nothing about but extrapolate on the inevitable, but here is a link to the JNN camera that is pointed to the Fukushima reactors and on it there is a huge rectangle of white-outed screen. Can anyone offer any information about this or comment on what you think is going on behind the white curtain?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmiq5CtF3N0
The image is over-exposed. I think it's just a square white structure that's catching the glare of the sun rising in the east. If it really is live footage, in a few hours it should look a little more normal.
I like the phrase, "Hyperinflationary landmine". They should use it more often.
Other than that, you're letting your bias and emotions thread throughout this article. I'm not being critical, but there they are. Look. Everyone else is by-passing the dollar, so why do you have the tone of, "How dare they try to save themselves from economic disaster?"
Never mind.
Piece of shit article, with very little depth or thought. China - that nation that is itself drowning in debt and empty cities on a tide of pollution, and Japan, whose debt os over 200% of GDP, and both with horrible demographics ? Two countries that depend on exports for 2/3rds of their economy ? Those countries ? lolololol I wish them luck...because imo we're all going down the crapper. The global implosion will be immense and not spare a soul.
So, in a way, China has gone John Galt with regards the rest of the world.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
Don't take this wrong, but people are absolutely "STUPID" not to cash-in 50-75% of their paper money and buy PM's. Simple really.
Let's include the reality of some hundreds to thousands of violent protests against the government in each region, ongoing or sprouting new each day. I was actually thinking how close the people of China are to removing their leaders again due to instability and guarantee of a very hard landing from the internal fraud alone. Steel and copper don't feed a billion citizens that can't rely on agriculture in a large portion of their land due to pollution. If the MaoMao wannabes try starving them like Kim Jong Dead, they will insure their own collapse and the forbidden city will be adorned with the leaders heads on pikes again. Japan is poisoned and huge chunks of their main island uninhabitable for much longer than homo sapiens have existed. Korea is totally based on export, which is going to collapse. They can't pay their bills and will never achieve growth again as cancer eats a percentage of their people, why ignore this?
I get the impression that a good fascist government is the most important thing to any investment counselor. Sales pitch; "Hey, the so called parliament and their bought Prime Minister and army has the people by the nuts and will squeeze them harder to make this deal just so you can make money" "Look at Mubarak, he tells them he is sick, gets to rule the country from a resort and pretend he isn't in charge. How can you get better than that? He invests with us!"
Predictions are self centered sophist nonsense we all engage in, but are rarely ever correct. Why would we believe someone else that this is how it's going to be?
While said collapse will be celebrated all around the US, EU, and other parts of the world that do not hold China in any good light.
If said collapse happens, I'd hope that the US has some willingness to go colonial on them - like the Brits did.
Uhmmmm Tyler forgot to mention that Obumster is furthering the effort by devaluing the Dollar against the Yuan and starting a trade war , Obumster is a much better divisive Pres than Billary would have been.. Problem is longterm it won't work as planned The Men who built the Shinning Empty Cities in the plains won't be any better at planning this.. What it will lead to longterm, besides the Bubbles the west has created thru centralized plans. ????
U.S. will remain top dog for years to come mainly because it has an incredibly advanced and liquid financial system. This is an absolute must for debt laden systems, liquidity and revenue streams. There is a breaking point somewhere though and in the case of the U.S. I believe it will be govt. debt somewhere around 10-12 times revenues. Currently it´s at about 6.5 so I don´t think red lights are flashing just yet and if the U.S. can refrain from going into yet another cakewalk war dragging on for years and costing trillions of dollars I think it can muddle through for a long time yet. This IMO is the main reason the dollar and treasurys remain strong, the price of the latter in fact being just shy of a 200-year high. Check out the consistent trading channel of the 10-yr note for the last 25 years at Yahoo Finance and you will see that the market is going to bid up the price of those bonds and down their yield for as long as it takes.
Mr_Wonderful
U.S. will remain top dog for years to come mainly because it has an incredibly advanced and liquid financial system.
Sure it will, wait till another 15 million lose their jobs, as the economy is not coming back for min 20yrs.
THE SWHTF way before then.
Everyone has hated the dollar reserve status since it was created in 1944. Before that, they hated the British pound for the same reason. So that the chinese would like to get away from it is not news. But in order to be taken seriously as a monetary power they HAVE to depeg from the dollar. However, if they are going into recession their currency might depreciate instead of appreciate. Besides, who's going to trust a bunch of corrupt totalitarian communists to dictate the worlds money supply?
I doubt that ANY country's currency will ever be the reserve currency after the dollar. It confers too much power but also causes far to much money printing in support of the world's economy. Eventually currency gets over-printed and self-destructs. Better to have an international reserve currency based on 100% gold backing. You can't over-print it, and it confers no unique power to any government.
We could use a basket of currencies, but that just sweeps the problem under the rug. Or it could be a basket of commodities, but commodities don't behave like money because they get consumed, with shoratges an surpluses playing havoc with the money's value which should remain constant during those episodes. Wealth is supposed to constant or growing, which is why gold is (and always has been) the ideal reserve currency. Its useless and so isn't consumed, its stocks grow from mining at about the same rate as population, which is exactly what you want.
I get really tired of all these people who think the Chinese are a super race that is going to destroy us. The Russians and Japanese were going to do that too. Asian economies are not exotic transcendental machines, they are modelled on western economics. As such they fall prey to credit bubbles, mal-investment and fraud. China has a huge population so the scale of their growth has been astonishing, but its not fundamentally different from any other fast growing economy. The fact is, we are all in this together, and for the same reasons. The timing for each economy is a little different, China is still approaching their 2008 moment. But they have made all the same mistakes we have, so it will happen. In fact, their short sighted central planning culture has made even more and bigger mistakes.
On the other hand, Chinas transformation is amazing and it will prove permanent. China is destined to be a world power for 100s of years to come, but not automatically the most dominant power. They have too much central planning, authroitarianism, corruption, demographic problems, and nearly 1 Billion people that still need to be brought into the 21st century. THose are big challenges that will take many decades. In a way they've done the easy part, and what remains will prove far more difficult.
ddtuttle-
Excellent post-
Don't expect the West or US to consider them anything but "trouble ahead".
The Chinese have been through countless currency debasements over the centuries, it's childs play to them. Americans only believe in infinite growth and typically have no understanding or belief that the dollar could ever collapse despite the failure of all previous fiat currencies throughout history.
Most Americans believe that since energy has been cheap and abundant for the past 150 years that it always will be. Most Americans believe in Ponzi schemes, for example, SSI, Medicare and Medicaid.
China, and the rest of the world has to get out from under the weight of dollar WRC status. Not because it wants to, because it has to. The worlds ability to produce energy has been flat to declining for the past 6-7 years. As crude oil is a master commodity the global pie of resources has been flat to declining. The U.S. will continue to exact a greater portion of the worlds flat to declining resources based on USD WRC status.
This Brandon guy is a complete failure and has zero credibility. You need to Google him up and make your own decision.
Historically China has aways kicked out the Westen Barbarians. after importing the necessary technology, industry and investment to modernize and then recede into xenophobia as a result of internal disintegration. Will it be different this time?
didnt alex jones predict this in 2005?
This China -proposed ASEAN bank is described as a "mini-ADB" (Asian Development Bank) meant for small Chinese SME's to invest in ASEAN members.
Totally different from a Central bank!
Mr. Brandon Smith exhibits the same degree of understanding about Asia, its history, trends and possibilities---not to mention the meaning of "reserves"---as Michelle Bachman does about the writings of Charles Darwin.
Mr. Smith might be well served to go off to the Spratly Islands to reflect on his geopolitical Downing Effect.
About right. He's a kid living in nowhere Montana with a high school education. If he want to right on what is going on with barter systems or localized movements in the US or globally, more power to him.
The article does not say to which extent this new Asian trade policy will reduce the reserve currency status of the dollar. This is an important topic.
Without the reserve currency status of the dollar there would probably hyperinflation in the US by now or a 1932 style depression (or worse). So far, the US has been able to print money due the reserve currency status of the dollar. Without money printing on the scale we have seen over the past 3-4 years, there would have been an economic disaster in the US.
This is an example which indicates that the US has to prepare for the day when the USD loses its reserve currency states. When that happens, the US must reduce imports, raise taxes and cut government spending. If the transition to this new kind of economy will be smooth enough, I guess that there will be no disaster in the US. To me, it doesn´t seem as a disaster if the Americans begin to produce things they currently are buying from China domestically. The US produced those things domestically 50 years ago. The question is how smooth they can make to the transition back to the old-style, high-tariff, economy. But perhaps the US will not need high tariffs? If Chinese wages rise enough, it won´t be profitable to produce in China rather than the US.
I suppose that China does not want hyperinflation in the US. If that happens, their US government bonds will be worthless. Therefore, I think that the Chinese should prefer a smooth transition. Is there anyone that would not benefit from a smooth transition but rather the opposite?
That is a good observation. Another thing to consider though is that the desire for smooth transition is so that it (in the grander sense) least disturbs not the economy but the populous, without whom there is no economy. If the populous is already up in arms about something, and the US stays on it's current path, a rapid switch maybe a very wise move indeed.
I'm a little disappointed to see so many people who I thought had a good sense of things are still so insulated in their thinking. Absolutes eh?
Good article. This fits with discussion I've had while travelling in the region. Asians get it, even if Westerners don't - and won't until too late...
Asia for a long time knew it could agree to US rules and then just do what it wanted. Those in the west are fools to think China/Asia will abide by western rules.
China made it's own terms and like puppy dogs with their tail between their legs those in the west just agreed to anything in the hopes of getting some business. Oh, the west got the business. Come to Chna/Asia western businessman we will steal all the technology, get a free factory built/financed by the west. In a few years afterwards those government supported businesses will turn out duplicate goods at cheaper prices Just like happened to Fellowes.
The Chinese/Asia needed suckers to give them the training, technology and financing in exchange for cheap labor. Now that China/Asia has everything they can slowly grind the western companies out of business and eventually buyout the hollowed out western just for the market presence.
By the time those in the west realize they were taken to the cleaners and are suckers it will be too late.
Earlier today I was in a discussion about why it was unjust for american companies to offshore jobs to LCR's in an effort to create greater profits for the CEO. His argument was that people should just work harder to become part of that 1%. Perhaps this type of short sighted thinking is reaping exactly the rewards it deserves.
"The Chinese/Asia needed suckers to give them the training, technology and financing in exchange for cheap labor."
If it had not been given, it would have been taken. It would have taken a while longer, but the end result would have been the same.
Equalization of global living standards.
The problem with China doing that is that it presumes that the US government won't put an end to it. All that Asia has to do is look less of a place to evade US/EU regulations and look more like a threat to the US/EU. Right now, it's starting to lean towards threat given things like this happening.
If it gets bad enough, I wouldn't put it beyond the US to simply expropriate, imprison, and hand to a more US-friendly private entity. Quietly.
City of Beijing to raise minimum wage 8.6% in 2012 - Sichuan 23.4%, Shenzhen 15% http://www.marketwatch.com/story/city-of-beijing-to-raise-minimum-wage-86-in-2012-2011-12-29
... planned minimum wage hike of 39.5% by 2013.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/271577/companies-to-take-w...
That's what you get when you get the businesses a bit too close to government. They think that everyone else should sacrifice, but not them.
Globalization will fail just as the Eurozone is failing right now before our very eyes. I would love to know what genious thinks this has a chance in hell of working.
My question. How do they get away with pushing this shit on the American middle class?
Everybodys All ...
My question. How do they get away with pushing this shit on the American middle class?
They will get away with it, until we have had enough, and 4-5 million hit the streets armed to the teeth,with blood lust.
Hopium this speeds along the collapse
The USA kids itself about being militarily above all others. They are rapidly losing ground and have devolved into chasing fantasies like "nanobots" and "rail guns" which have been dismal and expensive failures.
The future lies with financial warfare, but Americans really don't understand that.
Read:
http://www.amazon.com/Simple-Wealth-Mr-Andrew-Costello/dp/1463523017/ref
It's amazing that so many people who can't even read Chinese can claim to have so much insight into China.
It's amazing that so many people who can't even read Chinese can claim to have so much insight into China.
***********
It's called economics 101
You're giving China far too much credit and neglecting to recognize it as a command-control economy. I don't believe China will internationalize the currency anytime soon. To do so would require the CCP to relinquish too much control. The CCP is all about control. Moreover, to make reference to China's "considerable forex and bond reserves" indicates a type of cluelessness about the country's fiscal situation.
It's worth noting that China's aggregate reserves total around RMB3.0 trillion. But fully half of that is represented by domestic investment. That would leave China with about RMB1.5 trillion available to bailout sinking state-owned banks (which lend almost exclusively to sinking state-owned enterprises). But if China had to cough up more money to cover, say, sinking provincial government bonds, it would be forced to do so through the sale of state enterprise stock (presuming provincial debt repayment dries up ahead of SOEs). How good would it appear if China started selling domestic assets? Not possible, you say? Well, think again.
Total aggregate indebtness (bank loans, bonds, etc., for both state-owned and private sectors) equals about RMB49 trillion. The central government has offered an implicit guarantee for each and every yuan loaned SOEs and provinces. That means the CCP is left holding the bag on about 93% of all that debt should the music stop. And it seems, given that Europe is China's largest export market (not the U.S. as you imply) and U.S. import demand is on the wane, the crescendo has long passed. Considering China's aggregate indebtedness, debt-to-GDP is running at about 150% - among the highest in the world.
Crediting China with the brilliance to take steps to avoid the global financial meltdown since 2005 would be far more believable if Chinese consumers actually had a role in the economy - beyond that which requires their payment of rising costs associated with the purchases of staple goods. China's consumption-to-GDP in 2010 was 36%. In the 1980s, it averaged 55%. Rising GDP is not the equivalent of wealth accumulation, particularly not in China. In addition, the CCP's horrendous tax regime for individuals is the highest in the world. It's important to note the average mainlander pays 23 times the level of taxes of the average earner in Hong Kong. Rising costs, falling consumption and dizzying taxes don't lead to incentives for creation and production. They are, however, quite useful in boosting revenues which fund the production of GDP numbers as a consequence of state-run infrastructure projects.
China is not representative of the greatest of world economic miracles. That title was earned by the U.S. in the early-1900s as a result of real wealth accumulation through innovation, unmandated free-trade and sound money and, in spite of the progressivist bent in American politics over the past fifty years, that mantle remains here. How much longer it can remain in the U.S. is another issue. The totalitarian, psychopaths in charge of China are not, however, in any position to legitimately claim anything other than a masterful job of selling the world a real bill of (economic) goods. I guess you're buying.
Nature economist and historian Elaine Meinel Supkis relates China And Japan Form Trade And Currency Union As I explained a year ago, China now is Japan’s #1 trade partner. The US has been dethroned. This leads, INEVITABLY, to many severe shifts in trade directions, the relative power of empires and other things that will see the US become a #2 power in the world, not the Ruler of the Seven Seas. As I have explained over and over again, when we destroyed our own sovereign merchant marine, we doomed ourselves to future failure.
We imagined if we spent trillions on having an immense military navy, the loss of the merchant marine wouldn’t matter. This was utterly childish and anyone reading history could see the end results, yet all of our ‘historians’ like the fraud, Gingrich, hired by our government to advise them proved to be a madras of maniacs, not historians looking coldly at that bloody bitch, History.
The present fall in world trade is due entirely to China raising the bank rate reserve ratios and limiting foreign investment in China. This squeezed Japan mercilessly and this was deliberate since Japan was two timing China, talking trade when in Beijing and then talking war when in DC. The Japanese always joined US attacks on China’s huge FOREX holdings while holding nearly just enough to keep the dollar strong against the yen so they could ravage our domestic markets. There is no turning back this particular wheel of history: it will grind forwards no matter what. The US had its chance to dominate Asia and blew it with the Vietnam War. Since then, we have been treading water. We let Japan’s shipping industry destroy our own industry so that NO American ships EVER went to Japanese harbors while a huge flotilla of Japanese merchant ships came pouring into all our ports, for example. China can buy whatever it wants since it has money! Lots of money in all currencies. Its FOREX holdings are immense and not in dollars but in many currencies and this was deliberate, too. China can buy whatever it wants since it has money! Lots of money in all currencies. Its FOREX holdings are immense and not in dollars but in many currencies and this was deliberate, too.
I relate that China raised the bank rate reserve ratios at exactly the same time that the stock market expansion of QE1 was ending and needed a second monetary expansion with QE2. The combination of the exhaustion of QE1, and the raising of the bank rate reserve ratios, turned China Industrials, CHII, lower, in October and November of 2010, as is seen in this Yahoo Finance Chart of CHII, KOL, ACWI, SLX. Then Coal, KOL, Steel, SLX, led world stocks, ACWI, and China Industrials, CHII, further lower when investors became aware that a debt union had formed in the EU, and as investors became aware that a ponzi financing scheme was being used in China based upon stockpiles of copper as collateral, which propelled China Minerals, CHIM, China Financials, CHIX, and China Industrials, even more strongly lower.
Murry Rothbard reported that the fiat monetary system began on August 15, 1971, when the US government suspended the convertibility of the US dollar to gold. The death of fiat money, that is, the death of fiat currencies, began in August 2011, as the US Dollar, $USD, began to rise from 73.50. This was immediately after investors sold out of stocks, ACWI, in July 2011, when they became aware that a debt union had formed in the Euro zone. Then in August, they sold heavily again, when Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy called for a true European economic government, and when Herman van Rompuy called for a sovereignty union.
Failed currencies reflect sovereign insolvency and banking insolvency. Failed sovereigns and credit depleted financial institutions are unable to support growth and do not provide security and stability.
A paradigm shift is occuring in globalism. The former focus of globalism was for banking and corporate profit; but as nations loose their debt sovereignty and banks are nationalized, the focus of globalism will increasingly be on coordinated governance for regional stability and security.
It was Milton Friedman who provided the Free To Choose script of floating currencies in 1974. But now his Banker Regime of Neoliberalism is crumbling. The economic, political, and financial tectonic plates have shifted an an authoritarian tsunami is on the way.
The word dynamo comes from Greek dynamis, means power, and carries the connotation of an electrical generator.
Credit and financial deregulation were the dynamos of the Milton Friedman Free To Choose floating currency and Banker Regime. Now diktat is the dynamo of the Beast Regime of Neoauthoritarianism.
The seigniorage of diktat is rising to replace the seigniorage of fiat money, as the political capital of diktat is rising out of the ashes of the Milton Friedman Free To Choose floating currency known as Neoliberalism.
The economic capital that underwrote democracy is history. Choice is now a epitaph on the tombstone of a prosperous bygone era. The cherished Libertarian concepts of Freedom and Free Enterprise are mirages on the Neoauthoritarian Desert of the Real.
God is sending the First Horseman of the Apocalypse, Revelation 6:1-2, to replace all current political and banking rule with the rule of authoritarians, as evidenced by the appointment of emergency financial managers in Michigan by Public Act 4, and by the appointment of technocratic governors in the EU’s periphery. The Sovereign Lord, Psalms 2:4-5, is passing the baton of sovereign authority from nation states to the EU ECB and IMF Troika. WSWS reports that Detroit Politicians Are Attempting To Outdo One Another In Eliminating Jobs in order to salvage the city of Detroit. Millionaire Detroit Mayor Bing proposed that Governor Snyder appoint him as an emergency manager to run the city. Bing has called for a 10 percent pay cut for city workers, 1,000 layoffs, and a “voluntary” reduction in benefits on the part of the city’s 22,000 retirees. The city council is calling for even more drastic attacks, including the layoff of 2,300 city workers. An inquiring mind asks, will martial law be declared to deal with a collapse of government in Detroit?
Yahoo Finance chart shows that the most toxic of debt, Michigan Municipal Bonds, MIW, has had a terrific run up since QE1, rising from 6.84 on Dec 8, 2008 to a high last week of 14.87, far exceeding the gain in Junk Bonds, JNK, and the toxic debt taken in by the US Treasury under QE1, which is approximated in the value of the mutual fund FAGIX. US Central Bank monetary policies and a “flight to safety” out of the Euro, FXE, have boosted the most bad credit to a spectacular level. The debt debauchery practiced central bankers, has run up bad credit to grotesque levels. The monetization of debt by the world central banks is causing the death of fiat currencies, and a most painful deleveraging and derisking out stocks. A strong rise in municipal debt in the 1920s was a leading cause of the 1929 to 1932 depression. This time the depression is going to be so terrific, that a change of governance will be required.
The Beast Regime of Neoauthoritarianism is rising up out of the Mediterranean Sea. This monster of statism has seven heads, symbolic of its occupation in mankind’s seven institutions and ten horns symbolic of its rule in the world’s ten regions, Revelation 13:1-4.
It is being called forth by the 1974 Clarion Call of the Club of Rome for regional global governance, as a means of providing security and stability, in a world of chaos, that is coming from derisking and deleveraging out the Banker Regime of Neoliberalism.
While Neoliberalism featured wildcat finance, a Doug Noland term, Neoauthoritarianism features wildcat governance, where leaders bite, rip and tear one another, and only the most fierce top dog comes out on top. Markus Salzmann of WSWS reports Hungarian Government Passes Authoritarian New Laws
Throughout history, God has provided a series of kings and a progression of kingdoms to rule mankind, Daniel 2:31-45, Freedom and Free Enterprise, the Libertarian dream, has come only recently and existed for a brief period, that is from the end of the Revolution War to the beginning of the Civil War. Fate appointed kings have included Nebuchadnezzar ruling Babylon; Cyrus and Cyrus and Darius ruling Merdo Persia; Charlemagne ruling Rome; Tony Blair ruling Great Britain, and George Bush, The Decider, ruling America with Unilateral Authority. And fate is pushing political and economic power of the UK and the US, the two iron legs of global hegemony, into the hands of ten kings, who will eventually come to rule, each in his own regional power base. With this distribution of power to regions, we see the rising of the Ten Toed Kingdom of regional global governance, where rule in the ten toes will be mired in the clay of democracy and the iron of diktat. The coming President of the EU will be one knowledgeable with the scheme of framework agreements. As credit instruments break down, not by any human action, but rather by fate, the curtains will open, and The Sovereign, Revelation 13:5-10, and his banking partner, The Seignior, Revelation 13:11-18, will step onto the world’s stage. In a credit exhausted and currency devalued world, the people will come to place their faith in the word, will, and way of these two; they will give their full allegiance to their diktat Revelation 13:3-4.
this is the best "who done it" since adam kissed eve n bit the apple and then cain disabled abel; I'll have to wait to read the next installment to find out who has ten toes and one big baton, it will be revealed i hope before mayan calendar says amen to revelation and damnya to revolution. Diktat is... dig that fancy jazz.
This was done to the American people by lazy and incompetent politicians who sent our industry overseas to line their pockets; the media (hell bent on perverting a society with ideas of Sodom and Gomorra), the Democratic (handout, entitlement) Party, Hollywood (the cesspool of the planet), the illegal banking cartel known as the Federal Reserve (the most grotesque abuse of power on the planet) and the War Machine mentality. The ongoing insatiable appetite for War and entitlement society brought about by Bush, Nixon, Obama, Johnson, Clinton, Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and the children of Rothschild and Rockefeller. This country has learned nothing as we plan for yet more war and economic calamity at the hands of the Bernanke, Rothschild, Sores, Goldman Sacks, JP Morgan, Immelt and the Obama disaster at the direction of the Money Changers (and oil interests) and the idea that we have the right to destroy countries and people we don't happen to agree with. John Kennedy once said, “My fellow Americans, ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.” This was shortly replaced by a Socialist who thinks we need to ask what the country can do for us(unlimited unemployment, social security increase, Medicare, Medicaid, paid abortion, socialized medicine etc... all while we are carrying a 15 Trillion dollar deficit) and who openly told us all that America never worked. Yup, Mr. Never had a job told us our country was not a good model. Can you imagine a man (One of the 1% group tied at the hip to the Wall Street crowd) with no accomplishments making such an outrages comment? Well, the media loves it because it plays right into their idea of Socialism and Communism, completely at odds with everything that is right about America. The man who represents everything that is wrong with America has the audacity to criticize the greatest country ever known to mankind (one he and his family never contributed to) and now ruined by him, the Bush family and the scoundrels of our society. The same group that destroyed Germany is back in full force and hell bent on stealing what is left of your future.
Keep that Rap Music playing, eat those big Macs, take those credit card vacations, got to buy that new I phone, IPod, HD TV on the new Citibank card, ready up for NFL and NBA season of beer and artery cloggers’ while the Chinese are hard at work building all the products once built by the Americans who gave you the infrastructure soon to disappear. May want to learn Spanish because soon we will be switching seats with those illegal’s we all have grown to hate. They are willing to work at jobs we will not do and understand saving, hard work and disciple once the cornerstone of America, see they have already lived in a country much the same as the one Obama is building and know what that misery is. We must take our country back and we must end this insanity. The New Year is here and what better time than now to say enough with this whole charade, we need a new group in DC and we need to end this perverted sick society build by atheists and money changers without regard for your life, liberty or pursuit of happiness and family! End the Fed and empower politicians who believe in our constitution, I beg you it will be hard but we can once again be at the top with some discipline and shared sacrifice! Asia is not the problem, the ploblem lies within. Asia cannot devolope products only copy them, dont ever forget who we are.
I haven't read all the comments yet but where is the user Spitzer? He was very close when I disagreed with his EU peg forecast and I commented about the Chinese peg being not a bug but feature. That EU would not be a peg, it was China. I also put up about Russia buying the PIIG's bonds. This was six months ago. I was going to compliment Spitzer for being so close.
The reason I bring it up is not vanity but the timing in how to trade it the Yuan reserve currency event. Like many things, events take decades to move toward into tipping points.
The entry point for acquiring Yuan is Q3 of 2012. That is if your like me with some choices where to invest because of prudence but certainly NOT in the Jim Rogers, Soros, Faber wealth camp. When they buy and we buy are two different things as to why and most here probably already get that part if your reading the article and this commentary.
Let the weak hands follow the false signals through spin those men will put out in timing (they don't spin about why or how or I like the content they put out for SOME value). The newbie investors go first on this news but wait for dip in July or August 2012 (yep six months aways cant believe it). Dump those Yuan almost exactly two years later.
You don't want them past 2015 because there are unusual geopolitical risks for 2015-2012. Too much to explain on this commentary but I am doing some writing on it next week anyways...
I expect 500%-600% return. I am investing $10,000 in cash which may be a little or a lot but I already identified my wealth class. There are two multipliers of the switch-a-roo that aren't discussed in public. What is discussed in public is that Americans are fat, lazy pigs that rode on the back of poor Asian peasants that all still ride Rickshaws and eat 1,000 calories of rice only. The reality is that both us and there GDP grew with ping-pong strategy. However, only one America's citizens will find out the true scope of wealth extraction from the Central Bank model in 2013-2014. 50%. It will land a little less though, 45% perhaps from 1913 when the dollar is measured in value at that point versus other currencies. It will take you two dllars to buy a Yuan in 2015.
Nothing specific tells me when America wakes up outside of the model as to when. The model is far more predictable than most investors realize. Now, should we still be using the same one, has it evolved and if so, how much? What is a solution to release all the tensions, right now?
I don't own a hedge fund, I build system engineering utilities. The answer is there but in New Media when I send a plan hoping to have it groked out to influence the influencers, the authors think I am competing against THEM. Pyschology is involved here but us people under 50 are orphans. It is demographic imbalance that is too late to address in this cycle so we get WWIII. Quad stacking as an approach to a binary problem creating an endless feedback loop results in amplification of the effect, that is cool for growth sometimes but not when everyone wants to kill each other over a small group of robber politicians lifting huge rips from them. The tools now do exist that didn't in the 1990's for serious system engineering adjustments to the CB model (then the world has a 5 Branch government, 5D, Five Checks and Balances, More Representation=More Freedom = More Prosperity).
But the Boomers or the economists in that class will move fast enough now to avoid the die-off. Good news 2/3rds surive. Bad news for Boomer citizens. Success breeds distraction from vigilence, I don't blame your folks for succeeding in extending your longevity but you voted for yourselves which is not unusual at all. So if you had wanted as a generation to mitigate evolutionary effects of imbalance, it does take far more of an education effort and motivated drive. It is your own fault you die off early based on rationing and dying from world war from the anger of the rationing and the obtuseness of the orphan generations. But in the bigger picture your neglect on a scale of 1-10 with 10 being extrement is about a 1. It is average so that doesn't make you demons but it certainlymakes your generation unexceptional. History will forget it. It personally make s me want to ignore this generation when they scream about all the right they have but the electorate don't lift a REAL finger and that what matters. What do you do with luke-warm water, get yourself another helping?
I have a couple of things to say that I hope us Americans under fifty will consider (we're all orphans by demographic imbalance). I am not bitching as much in 2012. Instead, I can now publically hold my leaders to account AND fix problems. That is because I am in New Media and I am fanatic about the 1st Amendment standard. However, like most things when your young and zealous and start out a project, you don't think about what it really takes to provide every various factions group of dozens of core idealogies, sets of law and provide 100% representation solution through the press. Utilitity is best.
Since 2007, I have put myself in leadership shoes, not because I was born to be one or ask people even follow me but because I desire to know why, to know how the world works in order to level my competitive playing field.
My folks split at exactly the wrong time to fund my college. The Internet is the leveler and I am living proof. Now as a fellow orphan I have used my time wisely to do some extra research, let me share it with you. Allow me please to accept the risks of pain Twain talked about by opening myself up to you. I loved Twain and some of the people here posting his work during the holidays got me thinking about deeper stuff. My analysis of Twaine is when you care you get hurt 50% of the time but it helps the world 400% more in real return. Bitter-sweet adventure it is, God bless the cynics! Time to grow up fellow orphans as we will be taking over in a decade so let's talk about educating ourselves in how the world works so we know how to run it better than the follks did. They were mean spirited by misguiding us on education to all focus on conformity:
"When you ask them why, they will tell you are all alone, fill your head up full of lies" - Black Sabbath .
Parents eating young in a demographic imbalance is part of human imperfection that has to do with competition for the best food & mates and hedging strategies against decrepency. The annoyance of the branding Boomers screaming for all of their rights when most of the orphans can't afford room and board for them in their own homes anymore (didja catch that), cause they have nothing left. But they had there victories and WWII generation of heavy handed conformity influenced there evolutionary reactions, etc. But the branding irritation factor is discouraging us orphans from reaching out to them. And the result from that is fighting each other over crumbs. Collaboration of many hands at least make light work (Chinese saying) while missing the luxuries and as you practice it, lo and behold we all did have enough for all it once again and a million times faster than what we thought! As for Uncle Sam, nine country set out to destroy the brand. I don't mean the American people. The East and the Bankers don't want you dead. They want you to live and labor for their Eastern plantation for 40 years and they will start killing those that wake up and refuse to break rocks for free.
The plans do not all work out as a small cliche expects. They all do to one event which I can't really describe in detail and it's because I am not sure yet. These men using the same plan that is now 130 years old already have recieved the majority of power in real terms of the globe, the map already redrawn in terms of governance/responsibilities. Once we globalized this cycle (three times a charm?) it created more solid framework where leaders of all stripes met up and agreed, created majority and agreed for the first time in history. Problem is, we didn't get invited to discuss what political or economic system this would be under. The bad news is it is the pyramid, triangualtion, 666 in geometric depth of adminstration or quite simply call it Monarchy. The good news is there decision in physics leads to the predictable conclusion of how and when. I advise you try and add value to mitigate losses on all side rather than fight them. One path saves lives and eventually gets you respect and promotion in life. The other path just exacerbates the losses and gets you dead.
I suggest be quick to compliment and slow to critize with ALL people. Show respect for rulers but force them to follow there own process. If they won't, they have made the choice for you in which camp you will be in. It is more likely you will have gotten the can or dead by mouthing off but not offering any form of solutions. That's how orphans act, uneducated rebels and the government is smiling knowing this but you don't. We had best solve our problem men and ladies that are orphans. Knowing means we can improvise and adapt. Never let them see you coming. That requires discipline, not bluster.
By 2021, no one nation will have competitive advantage and since we ALL will be weeping from lost loved ones while chopping down a tree for the new community home and town hall we ALL will consider very much for the first time in history of whom should have control of the currency, the citizens and thier simple flaws, or bankers, unaware that they even have any flaws in the first place? Greenspan tried to articulate this but failed. The real deal is if the systems engineering is right, we would have never heard from him in the first place. His intentions were swell but he knew better. Good thing he did apologize, those mistakes probably cost the 2 billion life price tag instead of one billion. Ahh the endless speculation of possibilities from the decision tree. I am going to be honest now though. Considering the system engineering, I would have made the exact same choice. But you guys failed when inflating assets (value is in the eye of the beholder, as long as they are happy) by 2005 to not speak up about the crime. Asset values are one thing to try a old tool in new form, quadstacking to attempt to break through into a new system paradigm.
Well, you need five dimensional tool to handle a binary problem self-replecating itself. 4444-55555. That coding means we'll solve mankinds 'flaw' problem of imperfection enough to not have to go through world wars created by boom/busts and caused by imperfect human men again, and that is because we are less than 100 years to the Singularity. You educate YOURSELF and look it up on Google. I just spent an hour writing this. So if you don't educate you NOW have only yourself to blame. Because we orphans CAN educate ourselves and we CAN collaborate to build and accomplish much in this world. We have abandonment issues that any pyschologist could treat you for :)
Now all Forgivness or correct application of justice still dictates that some of you guys do a couple of years behind bars because of the specific felonies of the looting. You rammed your fists instead right into the hive collective and yanked that capital out for yourselves and blindly shipped it to America's natural competitors. Unfortunately, such people are ten years behind our thinking and view us as ENEMIES. Greenspan, if you reading this that was your job to smack the PD's in the head with the newspaper hard, not just soak up the glory of empire in good times... That is your sin sir but one I have made, more than once...
Greespan was incorrect in discouraging Boomers to save, a banking solution couldn't work, it is physics. Banking cannot own the country and run it at the same time. This creates paricular paradoxes in physics.
Ideologically, a man can't serve to masters (major focuses). Somehow we are all really surprised that owners and managers are two different classes? That one is a middle man with little responsibility should be responsible to run entire nations but the owner accountable for nothing? These are imbalances, pendulums they swing the other way. My comment is observation based.
The suckers of markets get rooked in the transition periods., the volatility while the wise old hands clean up. But what was nasty like the 1930's and now is the political cruelty stemming from Monopoly, the Fascism. There is room for improvements and the refusal to do so VERY recently (2008 on) has a predictable but avoidable outcome. But I am telling you gents with all the pleading in my heart that 7/8 variables have now locked in place to guarantee 2 billion casualties and if that happens you really should study history when rulers were responsible for casualty rates of even 10% over 40 years cyclical 'events'. I am here for ALL of us I await the hate commentary from some of you because I call for work with bankers and each other rather on spouting on who hangs or goes to jail without any suggested factual analysis, accountability for standards or hiding in shadows like your supposed spooks. Of course using quad stacking creates binary paradox problems and bi-polarity science was a foundation of the CIA (Bernays, Freud, etc). The thing is people, it works until it doesn't and this experiment over 40 years proved to me that the question of which comes first as to why people do anything has been answered:
1) Opportunity to benefit
2) Fear of loss
The pain is we're evolving from that learning. Too much stick was already used for government to have a couple year martial law period and expect the citizens to remain patriotic. That is what beating people with the stick on consumption does to them rather than enticing them with a carrot. A shame policy stems from such experimentation which is important, yet not contained to labratory sized, experiements, perhaps a city (though NH looks like a recent experiment too). See how tough the 1st Amendment and representing all of us are? You get enemies by default because I have touched on almost all groups one person or another has a beef with. It is why like systems rather than writing, because expression comes far more naturally in this form for me.
The foundation dictates the results or failure of any form of design, be it lawnmower, nuclear missle or government tools. Next time in your country someone suggests an entirely different model/system remember it is like a plant holder and the plant will grow based on the mold. As citizens, you may be bored with foundational systems as I am in Dancing with the Stars but we ALL have an obligation to remain vigilant. America had four checks and balance government in 1912. That is what the founders really gave us. The Republic was a brand flavor (no one above the law) and one I agree with.
In 1913 America has three branch government. Less checks and balances literally equal less representation for the citizenship. Central Banking as a model needs to evolve but there is far less real resistance to that happening than what New Media is reporting. I have to give all you brave souls calling out financial Al Capones out. There power wanes when the ability to leverage does. Less loans, less power. Banking attempting to anchor 20 gazillion, billion, septillian, quadrillion Yen as debt anchoring is to retain there own demand artificially at your expense the next ten years.
The decision has created an endless feedback loop in physics and the same historic result of behavior, evolution cause and effect but the attempt to break the evolutionary cycle in such a manner has the unitended consequence of world wars... It is biology but now man has tools to make choices that couldn't be made even ten years ago, some refined and needed tools for an economic platform, a utilitarian dynamic governance system. The bankers will evolve into this, it is a forecast not a threat. But they will take 2 B of us with them in there kicking and screaming when we ALL have more profitable and betters ways to go forward and that includes the bankers.
Mankind very recently acquired the tools to address the 'Flaw' which is imperfection. The cause of demographic imbalance should be considered positive, not negative . It is the reward of the cycle of the producer and doing it well. Just like the cycle of the robber can be a bit nastier than normal in intensity but still lasts 40 years.
We are at the end, thank God because as an innovator, I am about out of here and not because of fear but because this current environment based on the models programmed instructions are to limit my output. My opportunity is now artificially capped. That is not freedom, that is STILL slavery, that is not choice. The operators of this system decided to mandrake to China 40 years ago. Central Bankers running the system will not share empathy with you, ESPECIALLY while in office/chairman (same thing these days). They are NOT citizens in how they view themselves in any common understanding of the word. Countries are words, feelings are words. Numbers are black and white. While the raw focus on numbers and being dry IS appropriate, leveraging capital to buy political systems is no longer an economic system, it is a political one that is now waging wars of conquest against entire nations in the people's name. That gives better insights into what the problems really is and then once properly defined solutions created. As much as I love Bill Black putting sociapaths in jail didn't work. We may not need the 'shadow' advantages and weaknesses of the model any more and the CB model needs to evolve. How we get there is where the debate is raging on...
Outside of physics and this system creating binary negative feedback loops, we can just use common sense to describe the class of people. that are bankers. They sell dreams. I understand completely, I am in marketing as a profession. Caring for the return for your customer as a producer is what separates what valuations are placed on financial or marketing assets, how you will behave one way or the other and ultimately, your aggregate wealth. I wouldn't want to be someone like Bill Clinton. I do know if I want to weep for his sociopathic behavior, exile him to pluto or go snort coke with him. See what I mean about these kinds of people? They are part of evolution but their propensity is to cheat because they were not born to be able to compete against a stronger class of predator. It is a deep subject and I am going drinking now. Must let the brain rest once in awhile, Christ I think we're all becoming nocturnal again. The blue jays were doing there thing at 1:30 AM. I guess we're in a big supercycle of science but if that is true there is far more to celebrate then be afraid or scared of.
Banker shouldn't run the country (clinton analogy). They make loans to people in cycles of animal spirits, pimping confidence is always part of the game of that casino but at least all parties agree and mostly plain by the rules. The exception is a reserve currency like the USA. 160 years is the 666 geometric model of Central Banking. I laughed at Caine when he was marketing 999. Think of the first 80 as staging, to see if the fast emerging country can be a peg nation. Then out of the stages, the nation chosen goes through 80 years of power. The first 40 are the best, the run up. The last 40 is the run down. Bankers have gotten better at cushioning the bust phases wich happen at the end of the 40 years and recovery for the nation takes about twenty years. Please forgive me for generalizing, I know there are more specifics that may help someone's understanding but a book report as commentary isn't nice, especially on holiday :)
I put this same exact forecast of China becoming peg since 2008. I am not Nostradamus guys. I am orphan generation, Gen X. Listen, we really complain VERY hard about leadership. The market problem for us to solve is educating ourselves using the Internet. More specifically framed, solving market solutions for digital publishing by creating a utility. Our collective failure of orphans is wasting way too much time complaining about our parents still spanking our assess too hard instead of walking off on them and telling them to go find a new kid to beat on.
We demand a fair market to compete in (know nothing is 100% perfect) and our voices heard! Great theme is Battle Hymn of The Republic! Ba-ba, ba-ba, ba! Guess what? Me knowing that China was going to be the peg reserve was bit wasn't me being a genius or being Nostradamus. That information was public, an individual just had to:
1) Study economics as to look for certain terms (Chris Martenson had an awsome crash course, about crime too but you'll get all the accronymns) and then you can Google what they mean. After a couple of months of this, you probably will get to knowledge (do 15 a day consistently) where you start needing to solve a few simple algebra equations. Whether you keep going or not from here wouldn't matter. You would be reading beyond the Wall St. Journal for economic reading and into institutions like BIS, CFR, NESRA.
2) Once your there and reading these sources (15 minutes a day consistently) you will know more about economics, how the world works than your local Congressman and about at the Presidential level. I am not kidding
Our problem with the orphans is we don't do our research. It isn't fair, I know. I also have to work 50-60 hrs a week for far less money, heard and see forever the Boomer focus (bigger voting blocs always vote their own interests imagine that). I do see all the appropriate complaints of Fascism, shades of 1930's commentary with alternative media. My favorite New Media for economics is here, Market-Ticker and Naked Capitalism but Yves banned me and I hadn't realized she had three years of negative bias toward me. Next time Susan, pick up the phone if you want $25,000 worth of sponsorship. Instead, I just saw you bitch about no one wanting to help for three years and then you ban ME acting, poo-poo and for act just like your Harvard colleagues. Yeah I was sore about it don't want to personalize it further from here.
I used this as an example of hearing all of us have righteous complaints but New Media mustr put aside it's preconditioned biases and focus on giving journalism, representation to 100%.
YOUR NOT DOING THAT AND SHAME ON YOU
Please set a better standard in 2012. I know, I am scared too but you dont get the power of the 1st Amendment and its protections (commen sense of coded law) by picking side. What Yves did to me was pick sides. I am in some group of dickheads because she read a Google link three years ago but was too lazy to read two links down. THIS IS OUR GENERATIONS COLLECTIVE FAILURE. We must slow down enough to focus on one or two subjects, read 15 minutes every day on them which becomes an enjoyment when you can actually sit and absorb the reading. That has benefits and helping your head by becoming knowledgeable and reducing fear. There ARE uknowns but most of the fear in articles are commentary in New Media are based on this market problem I identified. The second problem lack of coordination and collaboration.
The branding of the West but especially USA is hyper-competitive. Back in 1913, none of us had a choice of banking systems, the political system sold out. There wasn't an easy way to learn a business model like the Federal Reserve. The Internet was the great leveler. I never go to go to college but have outearned my friends that do every single year since I graduated high school. But some of you folks write a nice popular politics game but when it comes to free speech, some of us had better grow up fast. Jim Quinn, SCREW YOU TOO PAL. You confused vipers give meaning to JFK's words: "Those that make peaceful revolution impossible making violent revolution inevitable". I am New Media's ally in building utility, the backbone for New Media. You two miscreants are widely followed now. But few know Quinn as a person is a Fascist pig himself (he would be the next Adolph) or Susan (Yves) whatever not only banned me but told me she was banning me by emailing and telling me she was removing me from her email list. No dialague about the police action, just the police action.
Do you people really think your going to stop the most powerful military on earth, 50 years of a dark CIA model (that most of it worked) conquered the globe and took America's enemies 40 years to figure out by being little children, saying one thing using the power of the Press but without any accountability toward its standards? The market will have its way.
As for me being right on forecasts, have been since Q3 2008 on the formation of the depression, dips and all. Bob Doll was the only other guy on earth that close but Doll got scared by the second half of the game and started pimping confidence over truth. A shame, he made Blackstone reading http://www.google.com/search?q=bob+doll&rls=com.microsoft:en-us:IE-SearchBox&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=ie7&rlz=1I7SKPT_en . Here's mine:
http://seekingalpha.com/search/?source=search_general&q=jason+rines+and+W&cx=001514237567335583750%3Acdhc2yeo2ko&cof=FORID%3A11%3BNB%3A1&goto_search_tab=
You fix the world by holding a higher standard up. Hypocricy and laziness won't cut it. And when you Jim Quinn or Susan post the one depth link or email to fire back, I will destroy you two levels down by facts or info you were too lazy to collect. What will happen to all of your faithful followers dissalusioned that you can actually lead them to the promised land? I just validated the market dysfunction of hyper competitiveness. Ya, lets compete with each other because deep down we're afraid of the Fascist machine which in nature we act like anyways... Yeah right. Take some risks these years you little children. ZH at least had enough vision to realize fixing out country isn't like waving a frigging magic wand and it takes time. You people have no stomach for it, your cheerleaders failing the standard but refusing to accept help or even consider what a standard should be. It's your standard of fuck off, right? The funny irony is what I have worked on for three years is utility to represent 100%. It takes the same level of dedication as you authors but as an individual doing it for the country you get none of the praise, that is for you ego maniac authors. With Quinn and Susan the minute I tried to actually help and GIVE them the tools they need to expand instead they attack. Most of the negative commentators here at ZH are not SPOOKS.
I dance with them because I talk and email the rulers of this world and try to offer solutions. Every time I was right like Bob Doll on the economics of the depression I got to build confidence with them, trust and do even more loss mitigation. The rulers of this world are misguided over evil. The crimes were real and caused by evolutionary flows of the producer and robber, roughly 40 year cycles. Problem is, we have no natural counter cyclical disruptors, disequalibrium anymore with globalizaition. That is why herd behavior must be measured and dynamic systems to adjust put in place that tell us by numbers when demographic imbalances are coming and which counter-balances could or should be best applied prior to and after 40 year cycles. We have to adjust for longevity now, average age in real terms now is 85. In 20 years man will live 90 and still be highly active. In 60-100 years we reach the Singularity, science is providing access to the 4th dimension, unlike Matrix it is dull there but time stops meaning access to the 5th dimension happens instantly. WHat that means is we are 100 years or less from literal immortality. Why not offer math, science and political solutions to set goals for this reality? I think it is as simple demographic imbalance. But the solution postulated by economists doesn't even factor the mathematic or scientific cause of animal spirits. As much as I love Steve Keene's spirit he is WRONG. You MMT people are wrong too but the base of the foundation is not cracked and needing repair like YOU THINK. It needs building the foundation laterally for the next decaded and stacking up from that. Greenspan tried to cheat this process which was his error and real SIN. But he did not have the right tool to crunch the math needed for disequalibrium theoried economy and government in any event so it all leaves me wondering on whom is really to blame or if the debate should merely recognize we paid politicians to lie for us, including bankers but the thing is we can no longer lie to ourselves, the Internet doesn't let us, we all know each others blemishes and what we are all doing. It looks ugly with the lights on no?
No wonder we are all freaking out. God bless all of you, even the two people I mentioned that really hurt my soul by causing confusion and Quinn literally trying to hurt me. Quinn maybe I shouldn't have discourage your nemisis from assaulting you, that guy David near D.C. I am calling your board at Wharten this year because you committed a felony with me and I let it go, Irish Central let it go. But your being a nasty, Fascist bi-polar nut job with the Burning PLatform that is leading your followers off a cliff. You are as bad as Lloyd Blankefein but nobody knows it. I have a higher standard set for 2012 and I have had one since 2008 when I began working on solutions to digital publishing market problems. I am ready with my utlity, funding, etc. I won because I maintained the standard to represent 100%. But any victories are no mine, they are because evolution created an orphan that got tired of getting beat up, social darwinism can send you radical in one or two ways. I went toward understanding why rather than blaming everybody else. Just like some of the Jew bashing that still exists (but is a bit better) here at ZH.
Look who is the most dangerous countries in the world today and for some extended periods of time (Russia, Persia, China). A person looking to lead that needs to learn the basic science of evolution and intermediate economics. That is because the more a tribe gangs up on another one, the more the other tribes evolution accelerates to counter the threat. We ping pong between these two sets, again easier to think of it as producer and robber. Doesn't mean knowing that you can stop or alter this process (at least in any meaningful way) but didn't mean the leadership of the 1990's in there hubris of empire didn't try. That doesn't absolve the CRIME but it's New Year so perhaps now that the tools exist we can make another attempt between generations to bridge the gap, get some funding and push forward. Doing so gets us lateral for ten years which is dull but we all LIVE and grow from there. Banking is going to become a utility and I give the system credit for growth of 1.8B people in 1911 to 7B now. But a few of you bankers are true broken pyschopaths. I guess about twenty of you eight countries. Your goal wasn't competing currencies and nor was your strategy because of imperfection. You people know these cycles but are willing to kill every living person on earth. Your the Malthusians. Malthus was wrong, get over it already. The problem is demographic imbalance. If you as leaders are tired, choose successors to seed the garden for you and some of those stewards of your capital will have to learn AI. The citizens can and should be learning the banking system. Henry Ford was wrong, I told you about my background I know about the banking system and don't care, the model has room for improvement. The improvement is disequalibrium that helps us understand better how to keep pyschopaths out of the political system so you don't have twenty total misguided individuals able to kill one third of us based on their laziness. Same problem as 500 years ago, same solutions in macro but our solutions now are far better. We are and will evolve.
Drive safe today and to the people of all countries - God bless you. Sorry Yves I had to use you as an example. As for you Quinn, I am calling your board on Wednesday. I had enough of your hurting my American people. You are only one of us in name, not in standard and time has proved this out.
Man now has the tools to measure and include disequalibrium into a model and that development is two years old.
will discount the historic and cultural reactions to empire. Russia and China
America was a benevolent empire for an empire but STILL much work on economic and social models at the margin. The good news is we
To the capitalist and commies in about eight countries that thought it would be great to destroy Uncle Sam including several political insiders committing treason (you know whom you are and so do I), you will soon see the nasty nature of ignoring disequalibrium, acting like temple priests and cockheads and demanding the privelage our Republic by murdering the people after the rape. Up until the last 40 year cycle I could forgive everything (but still hold accountable) because the tools and information to work to the next standard of our perfection and immortality.
I say dance because I am not threat to them but that doesn't mean they don't slow me down. But these people aren't fucking with you like you think. I am paranoid about the environment too but guess what? Your Spooks are these authors commentating anonymously like Quinn or Susan.
Don't worry Yves I forgive you, but next time pick up the phone before you destroy an ally that was protecting you. I am no agent or spook but I can clearly see the I.T. attacks and outline of opposition heading your way. My information you DIDN'T research in public of your bias can be found at Slashdot. Do a search for this topic and read two pages where Slashdot vindicates me and assign the culprit as Boca Networks.
Some of you bright, talented New Media people discuss the crime and lack of standards like experts. By now, some of you are. However, most of you are still half-baked and not doing your research to tell WHY things happen and provide a reasonable forecast as to when in economics so not taking accountability but still calling for leaders to do so. They are the cause of our role models but they are getting old and dying off and we must take over, not in a militant kind of way more a generation thing.
I'll prove my point, there will be a few people defending Yves and putting up links to my background. AWSOME! But like Susan over there at NC, you won't bother reading past link one. THIS IS MY POINT, not a person. This problem is a HUGE obstacle to implementation of system engineering plans and cannot just be avoided.
This is mental illness caused by being overwhelmed and attempting to do more than one role at once in media all the time. Three people are needed for consistent daily news in a business model. Yves is actually a hero of mine. and I forgive her, we are imperfect. But the dumbness of not even biases to not make a call for $25k of sponsorship, banning me instead of taking $200k of free software I spent to develop for an entire market and the business plan which she never read and was giving to HER group as a gift, all these things must be concluded as serious mental illness by out ENTIRE CLASS. That means me, you, him, her, anybody under 50 basically. So we are on our own and must look after each other. So be it, at least the parties are a bit wild and fun :)
Orphans, we must look in the mirror now. Must practice what is preached about Internet, disruptive technology, etc.
If you didn't want to read the book above................Just Buy Physical Gold and Silver and stay out of debt and you will be fine! Pack em, stack em and rack em and you will become weathier than your neighbor!
Happy New Year!!
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I haven't read all the comments yet but where is the user Spitzer? He was very close when I disagreed with his EU peg forecast and I commented about the Chinese peg being not a bug but feature. That EU would not be a peg, it was China. I also put up about Russia buying the PIIG's bonds. This was six months ago. I was going to compliment Spitzer for being so close.
The reason I bring it up is not vanity but the timing in how to trade it the Yuan reserve currency event. Like many things, events take decades to move toward into tipping points.
The entry point for acquiring Yuan is Q3 of 2012. That is if your like me with some choices where to invest because of prudence but certainly NOT in the Jim Rogers, Soros, Faber wealth camp. When they buy and we buy are two different things as to why and most here probably already get that part if your reading the article and this commentary.
Let the weak hands follow the false signals through spin those men will put out in timing (they don't spin about why or how or I like the content they put out for SOME value). The newbie investors go first on this news but wait for dip in July or August 2012 (yep six months aways cant believe it). Dump those Yuan almost exactly two years later.
You don't want them past 2015 because there are unusual geopolitical risks for 2015-2021. Too much to explain on this commentary but I am doing some writing on it next week anyways...
I expect 500%-600% return. I am investing $10,000 in cash which may be a little or a lot but I already identified my wealth class. There are two multipliers of the switch-a-roo that aren't discussed in public. What is discussed in public is that Americans are fat, lazy pigs that rode on the back of poor Asian peasants that all still ride Rickshaws and eat 1,000 calories of rice only. The reality is that both us and there GDP grew with ping-pong strategy. However, only one America's citizens will find out the true scope of wealth extraction from the Central Bank model in 2013-2014. 50%. It will land a little less though, 45% perhaps from 1913 when the dollar is measured in value at that point versus other currencies. It will take you two dllars to buy a Yuan in 2015.
Nothing specific tells me when America wakes up outside of the model as to when. The model is far more predictable than most investors realize. Now, should we still be using the same one, has it evolved and if so, how much? What is a solution to release all the tensions, right now?
I don't own a hedge fund, I build system engineering utilities. The answer is there but in New Media when I send a plan hoping to have it groked out to influence the influencers, the authors think I am competing against THEM. Pyschology is involved here but us people under 50 are orphans. It is demographic imbalance that is too late to address in this cycle so we get WWIII. Quad stacking as an approach to a binary problem creating an endless feedback loop results in amplification of the effect, that is cool for growth sometimes but not when everyone wants to kill each other over a small group of robber politicians lifting huge rips from them. The tools now do exist that didn't in the 1990's for serious system engineering adjustments to the CB model (then the world has a 5 Branch government, 5D, Five Checks and Balances, More Representation=More Freedom = More Prosperity).
But the Boomers or the economists in that class won't move fast enough now to avoid the die-off. http://ragingdebate.com/browse-articles/economy/are-americans-reducing-debt-recent-household-survey-reveals-some-clues . It wasn't intentional, it was misaligned priorities.
Good news is that two out of three survive. Bad news for Boomer citizens is cosmic karma and lessons about not eating your seed corn of your young just because your banker tells you too. Of course you had a nagging feeling at the back of your head to care a bit more about he next generations but Greenspan said seemed to make a lot of money by the late 1990's so it has taken you ten years to wake up he was wrong. He admitted it, but that doesn't mean two sets of problems now exist. The first was demographic imbalance recognized as a 'savings glut' problem. Think that was 1994, could be off a year or so. Anways, using a banking solution to a human herd behavior whithout the ability to conduct an experiment never mind roll it out is impossible. Shame on the Friedmanites for focusing on deficits when deficits are an 'effect'. Keyenes spent far more time experimenting with cause of behaviors of the herd as to why, disequalibrium theories that he himself couldn't prove but certainly cried out for more testing.
Anyways, tt's physics that has the answer, not politics to the worlds woes. Because physics explains evolution. And you need a certain tool that won't melt down running near-infiniate math calculations designed and compared by a fractal engine, running information between the 4th and 5th dimensions. Code set 4444-55555 are certain calculations in post-modern physics that are calculated against other variables describing human behavior. It is more observatory potential of using dynamic systems to warn us properly (like a Tsunami) than governmance applications and the reason why is that until we are energy we still have animal instincts and are imperfect which means imperfect operators will get greedy and cheat. But it can be made so expensive by being difficult that it may take several decades to beat this kind of system and by then we will enter the Singularity, the 4th dimension. Energy baby. The Matrix. Etc. etc. The whole idea of my work or my goal is such a system.
I don't like calling the practical application of physics just 'Quantum Physics' anymore but for term it is close enough to say that the world needs a quantum computer. I know the math piece proving the theory was completed by 2003 and this was public info. But now don't know where it is at.
Currency unions do not work! I thik we are seeing that now!
...the first of which (bold) will be welcomed by many in the US as a means to diminish China's influence - while making sure there it doesn't jump to another like-minded country.
R.I.P. Fiat.
http://www.aintmymedia.com/
Gooks are in the wire!
2012 will have a "Black Swan Event" that will catch all off guard. Be prepared.
Thanks for a great year Tyler and all ZH friends. Special thanks to the ZH reader who mentioned comparesilverprices.com and comparegoldprices.com. Both saved me some good money this year. 2012 will be Big Fun!
Happy New year!!
Soon to happen:
Asian Finance Minister to Bernanke: "Does this rag smell like chloroform to you?"
Soon to happen:
Asian Finance Minister to Bernanke: "Does this rag smell like chloroform to you?"