Guest Post: Ominous Similarities

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Thu, 07/28/2011 - 01:41 | 1500386 caerus
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holy title ever...very appropriate...and you quoted livermore?  bravo...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 04:10 | 1500443 Michael
Michael's picture

Screw this subject.

When are we going to start talking about how many layoffs are involved with cuts in government spending?

When's the first anaversary of ZIRP, or did I miss it?

My comments are moderated. How quaint.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 04:39 | 1500493 jomama
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not on ZH they ain't.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 05:33 | 1500516 HITMAN56
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Nic Cage making his forecast, approx 3:17 into this one....

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:55 | 1500869 IQ 145
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Obviously, I disagree with the poster. I think the fat easy money is already made in the stock index shorts; that's why I took profits this morning; there's still automatic 401K buying on every month; and still too many people who want to buy the dip, (in stocks). I regard this article as a typical, "look at my system" article; it gives a signal when it's already over. The vix bs. I wouldn't touch with a long stick. Just look at the daily bar charts and the weekly charts. most of the time, there's nothing that needs doing; sometimes there is. Maybe I'm completely wrong in taking profits today; we'll have to wait and see. I felt that the risk/reward ratio had increased too much.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:58 | 1500880 ibjamming
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I'm with government starts cutting goes with it.  We NEED the cut the government by many jobs is that?  And we know...government jobs are usually GOOD jobs.  This de/recession ain't going anywhere until we get some jobs again.  The best thing would be bringing back the NRA and putting all these people on welfare and unemployed back to being productive.  Rebuild the highways, bridges, rails...etc.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 07:16 | 1500544 Zeilschip
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What does skew VIX indicate exactly? Open interest in out-of-the-money SPX options?

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:48 | 1500841 IQ 145
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Closed my short of the DJIA today at 12,264, for $10,900+; the original position was posted here on the day and hour I put it on. Closed my Dec. 2011 Silver today at $40.110 for $31,800; that position was also posted here when I put it on. I'm always thinking about Livermore, and the tone of the charts; simple daily bar charts; are the bears fed now, are they bored? what about the timing, has it been too long since it was profitable to be long? Only tops and bottoms interest me. I would never look at any charts like these posted here. Look at the daily bar chart for AAPL; it was a textbook illustration of a tulip bulb run-up and blow off; but all the comments were about it going higher; the chart was just saying, hey I'm done now; stick a fork in me. I didn't short AAPL; I mentioned it here. When you see the evidence of irrational buying; the next thing to do is to wait for it to ripen; then short it. 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 01:41 | 1500387 AhhhItBurns
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I cant hear you! LALALALA--- Japan, Drought ---LALALALA

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 01:56 | 1500402 gangland
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Well On And On And On And On I Can't Stop Y'All 'Til The Early Morn'
So Rock Rock Y'All Tick Tock Y'All To The Beat Y'All
C'mon And Rock Y'All


Everybody's Rapping Like It's A Commercial Actin' Like Life Is A
Big Commercial So This Is What I've Got To Say To You All Be True To
Yourself And You Will Never Fall And Now I'd Like To Pass The Mic To


Yes Yes Y'All And Yes Yes Y'All I'm Always On Time Never The Less
Y'All And That's Right Y'All, I Shed Light Y'All I've Got No Time In
My Life To Get Uptight Y'All So What You Gonna Say That I Don't
Know Already? I'm Like Clyde And I'm Rockin' Steady But Time Flies
When You're Having Fun So Mike D C'mon And Get Some


jackson heights queens nyc bichezzz



Thu, 07/28/2011 - 01:41 | 1500388 Selah
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Since human nature never changes patterns will repeatedly play out as discussed by Jesse Livermore...

What does Jesse have to say about computers?


Thu, 07/28/2011 - 01:43 | 1500392 caerus
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you guys are the best...if you want to trade for a living then read livermore...smartest group of fuckers i've ever ran across...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 01:50 | 1500399 Jambo Mambo Bill
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"Trading 4 living..."? You meant playing video games with your money?

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 01:53 | 1500400 caerus
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 i respect your opinion...but read jesse's book for christ sake..or play galaga...whatever

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:29 | 1500423 margaris
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poor livermore.... all the money and success couldnt stop him from commiting suicide...

Sometimes I dont undestand successful people!

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:59 | 1500457 caerus
caerus's picture weird was it that his last wife had four? previous husband suicides? man was goddamm briliiant

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 03:47 | 1500472 sodbuster
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Jesse was prong to periods of depression. Good book- excellant read.


Thu, 07/28/2011 - 07:06 | 1500555 Re-Discovery
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He was also subject to short bouts of losing all his money, which -- along with his 'unlucky' wife -- may have aided the suicide decision.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:02 | 1500893 CrazyCooter
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Presently, the first search result on Google for ... "jesse livermore" "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" filetype:pdf ... is the auto-biography in question. I reccomend saving a local copy if you wish to read, as one never knows when the internet will decide to reorganize itself.

In a much older thread, a ZHer was kind enough to link it on a Sat morning ... I spent all day reading it ... fascinating story ... and valuable insights into the elite stock market culture (i.e. the makers). This is a must read if you actively partake in the markets and haven't done so already.

JM seemed to have gambling issues and was prone to depression. My understanding is that he trust funded his family to protect them from himself (he knew he would spend the money). I forget which iteration of penniless he decided to end his life, was it four? Broke at 40 after the kind of wealth he had would be hard to swallow for anyone and I am sure his life was much more complicated. Why win again to lose again? He wasn't bad at math!

Brilliant doesn't necessarily mean happy.



Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:20 | 1500415 caerus
caerus's picture

in the spirit of fairness let me say that jesse livermore was the greatest trader who ever lived..i guess you dont trade for a living else you would know this...good luck with your shitty humor and terrible mustache...i hope for you and your family that you never trade a godadmm dime take an english class if you can afford it...there are enough stupid people in this country who still wish to listen to your bile.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:30 | 1500421 Jambo Mambo Bill
Jambo Mambo Bill's picture

Don’t get too excited amigo! What I meant was with active bots, HFT and corp. manipulations, trading today in no more than a gambling game...

Respect for everything else... including Jesse boy

All the best.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:31 | 1500426 caerus
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if you're serious then that's my apologies...i hope you have a fine tomorrow

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:38 | 1500436 Jambo Mambo Bill
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Relax dude!

By the way, think about getting some Spanish lessons... It could be "useful" later the way we going...

Hope 4 a great opportunity to reload PMs soon with a coming DC deal... I hope...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:42 | 1500441 Transformer
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Especially if you live in the Southern half of the country.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 06:31 | 1500541 Moe Howard
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Consider moving to the Mexican interior. Empty land, lonely women getting a check from the USA but no men around. Let's dod a reverse migration.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 07:04 | 1500554 Mad Mad Woman
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You are asking to get shot by those drug cartels. I wouldn't touch living in Mexico with a 10 ft pole. Even the areas around the resorts are not safe anymore. I look for kidnappings of tourists from the resorts in the near future.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:44 | 1500442 caerus
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im sorry dude...i get fiery about livermore...hold your pms i think...maybe get some jim rogers ag...its still cheap

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:25 | 1500626 Help Is Not Coming
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Humans program the computers.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 01:46 | 1500393 gangland
gangland's picture



no sleep till crooklyn bichezz


Thu, 07/28/2011 - 01:47 | 1500396 ShankyS
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I get it Tony, but one glaring difference not shown in the charts - QE. The Bernanke put is in play now and save the markets at all cost is the mantra. Wonderful work. TA rarely lies, but till the Fed is out of business I'm skeptical (and I'm one of the biggest permabears on the planet). They have to save the markets (if they can) till at least the next election (and till they get a few more military "practice" sessions in like they are running in Boston).

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 01:54 | 1500401 The Shootist
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Yup, practice sessions are going on in Boston. But we aren't China either...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 05:38 | 1500489 Zero Govt
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no you're much worse than China.. 3 murderous illegal foreign occupations and looking to make it 5 wars soon

China sends manpower, investment and commercial groups abroad to conduct business in Australia, Iran, Africa, South America... the deranged cretins of the US Govt sends the Goon Squad shooting from the hip and airfreights pallets of bribe money to prop up corrupt umpopular Govts ...great contrast in foreign policy, is it working? ...has warmongering America throwing its military obesity around the globe got it any friends???

Wakey Wakey

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 07:19 | 1500563 Silver Dreamer
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I may be wrong, but you missed his point.  From his handle and other comments on here, I believe he was referencing firearms, not government.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 04:49 | 1500498 i-dog
i-dog's picture

"They have to save the markets (if they can) till at least the next election (and till they get a few more military "practice" sessions in like they are running in Boston)."

They're trying to extend the markets for a while longer, but I wouldn't count on a "next election" -- there are enough Executive Orders, and the Patriot Act, in place for Obomber to call it off when they are ready! Certainly expect more "practice" sessions in the major cities...and also watch for a ramp up in TSA activity away from the airports. That will be the sign that they're close to clamping down (they won't wait until after the market has crashed).

On a related topic, I heard on the BBC that Australia is also now about to institute FEMA-type "Fusion Centres" -- on the pretence that they are to stop "biker gangs". Riiiiiiiiight........ Look out,'s not only the "carbon tax" that points to an NWO takeover there, too.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 05:57 | 1500527 Advoc8tr
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Supreme court recently over ruled and reversed their attempts to make it illegal to associate with groups on 'their' list. But you are right - we getting it from all angles at the moment. They are trying to use the murdoch scandal in Brittain to restrict and license the media ... already suggesting that any anti-climate change coverage is evil and 100% the work of right wing extremist nutjobs (how convenient world events can be)

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 01:59 | 1500403 chump666
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sounds good.  but a patten we haven't seen for a long time, maybe never.  US gets a credit down grade, looses the AAA the USD as a base currency sends the trade (as in export import markets) markets into chaos.  kinda banking on that.

best trade advice was from a lowly oldschool guy that traded futures, always said that 'the markets aint science just art and art is about taming chaos'...something like that.

anyways watch spanish spreads.  they blowout againm rumor has it French spreads will start to look like rating downgrade. dumb arse french, love the women though

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 03:57 | 1500478 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

truly cataclysmic. and more like "taming the shrew" i would say, but "good enough for government work." the original problem was "counter-party" risk, yes? the government did the...i don't want to say expected...perhaps "rational" thing and became the counter-party itself. that's a lot of risk in place where no would want any, no? and now Fukushima--Libya--the euro crisis and the catastrophe in Norway. all eyes on Washington. You tell me what you see. Now excuse while i try and go to Adam Sandler's "happy place."

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:01 | 1500404 gangland
gangland's picture


 i got news for ya you ll be suckin like a leech



Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:08 | 1500407 gwar5
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Peter Schiff: The Dow today (July23) is already at the March 2009 lows of 6500 priced in gold. 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:10 | 1500408 caerus
caerus's picture

schiff is the shit

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 03:01 | 1500454 PhattyBuoy
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And the paper (bag) holders don't have a frickin' clue.


Thu, 07/28/2011 - 07:10 | 1500557 Re-Discovery
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bbbbut . . . gold's going to 'correct' to 1200 . . .

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:16 | 1500414 Bear
Bear's picture

After your post ES drops 3 points in 10 minutes ... Congratulations TD moves the market ... again

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:24 | 1500418 falun bong
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(had to say that because it's my first zh post...)

Livermore, Buffett, yada, yada. All that is ancient history now that we have the Chairsatan (and his Chinese counterparts...)!

(Ross Perot's giant sucking sound is our standard of living reverting to the global mean...)



Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:35 | 1500433 caerus
caerus's picture

blasphemy!  read livermore...then read him again...then read him a third time...them make some money

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:45 | 1500444 Transformer
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Yeah, that Perot guy really got it right, huh.  You talk about predicting what was coming.....  If he'd gotten elected... well....  who knows.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:53 | 1500450 caerus
caerus's picture

not sure what that means...but livermore was the best...if you have the time read his book...please...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:29 | 1500422 CombustibleAssets
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I smell something burning...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:40 | 1500440 caerus
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i farted

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 02:58 | 1500456 PhattyBuoy
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Clever ... !

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