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Guest Post: The One Chart That Shows Where AAPL and the Market Are Heading

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

The One Chart That Shows Where AAPL and the Market Are Heading

Is Apple going to $1,000 per share and dragging the market higher with it?

Sometimes one chart tells us more than a thicket of charts. Every analyst and punter seeks an "edge" by plotting and comparing innumerable indicators, ratios, correlations and data points. Sometimes all this complexity pays dividends, but if it did so consistently then 90% of hedge funds and mutual funds wouldn't be underperforming index funds. Sometimes a single chart says it all.




Chart courtesy of the Macro Story.

Any questions?

Yes. Doesn't this mean that AAPL (Apple) is on its way to $1,000 per share based on iPad 3 sales, and with strong growth in GDP and corporate profits, the Dow Jones Industrials are going to 15,000 and the S&P 500 is heading for 1,500?

Answer: If that's what you see in this chart, then that's what the chart means to you.

 

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Mon, 03/05/2012 - 11:56 | 2223989 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Wow! That's one hell of a woodie there Jack.

You're gonna have one heck of a head rush from the returning blood flow when it all goes limp.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 11:58 | 2224000 jcia
jcia's picture

Never underestimate the power of the iSheep

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:05 | 2224028 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Bubble.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:08 | 2224034 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

AAPL better be inventing iAntigravity to justify it's price. Anything less is going to be a disappointment I think.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:15 | 2224055 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Charly Selim Saladin is going to go from riches to rags.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:27 | 2224094 flacon
flacon's picture

If the central bank of Israel buys AAPL will this bauble ever pop? 

 

"bauble" = Roubini's pronounciation 

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:59 | 2224221 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

"Bah-bul" Think 'bobble'. "Oops".

Faber has a good 'bahbul' too ...

It would be great to have a show where Roubini and Faber sit around for two minutes or so saying 'bahbul' over and over.

(Best investment analysis those two clowns would ever come up with, as well.)

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 15:38 | 2224959 malek
malek's picture

iTulips

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:38 | 2224108 Popo
Popo's picture

Never underestimate the power of Chinese manufacturing to throw a wrench into the machinery when one least expects it.  Its almost amazing that it hasn't happened to Apple yet.   Foxconn is hardly perfect.   Apple wriggled their way out of "antenna-gate", but really, they got lucky that the problem wasn't worse than it was.  And the "unlocked" issue when you buy your phone from a US telco (ie:  They're actually not unlocked) is just beginning to get traction.

But even if they don't hit manufacturing hiccups -- I fully expect Apple to cross the rubicon into bloatware on the iPad 3.   Anyone who's been paying attention has seen the iPad go from a VERY stable device to a buggy, bloated, and very crashy device in just 2 years. (My iPad Safari crashes several times a day now).  The problem is GETTING WORSE.  A simple read of iPad/iPhone message boards shows 1000's of complaints.   This is how most operating systems fall apart:  Manufacturers keep on throwing more shit at them until the system bogs down and becomes a power-hungry, slow, bloated, crashy beast.   The lag between pressing a key and seeing a character is now painfully noticeable.  No one wants to talk about it but when it comes to the iPad 3:  We are likely there already.

 

But none of this matters in the largest sense:  It's  Apple's television project that will be Apple's Waterloo.  They are getting ready to take on the biggest most entrenched players in the industry -- **ON MULTIPLE FRONTS** 

Apple is emboldened by their strikes against phone manufacturers.  To think that it will work the same way against television manufacturers, media companies and cable companies simultaneously would be foolish.  

I expect some rough reviews for the iPad 3.  And I fully expect the next generation of Apple products to arrive 3-5 years behind schedule due to competitive headwinds from cable and media.

I am not *at all* an Apple hater.   I own a Macbook Pro,  an iPad,  an iPhone and a Touch.  (My desktop is Linux).  But anyone long after one of the longest and most impressive bull runs in history is not only greedy,  they're a f'ing idiot.    There's lots to be concerned about.

 

 

 

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:42 | 2224148 shuckster
shuckster's picture

I've noticed the same thing - my iPhone - after downloading an update, deleted all my music. It's also much slower. I think they realize that shit's about to hit the fan and want to dump everything they can on the market before people wise up 

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:07 | 2224248 jose.six.pack
jose.six.pack's picture

+1 for using Linux

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:35 | 2224351 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

What flavor? Linux Mint here.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 14:05 | 2224482 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Plain ole vanilla Ubuntu...

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:10 | 2224261 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

My iPad Safari crashes several times a day now.  The problem is GETTING WORSE.

 

Clear your Safari cache once in a while. It works for me on my iPad 1. Also clears up YouTube being balky on videos.

 


Mon, 03/05/2012 - 14:00 | 2224458 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

You Mean Hand-Jobs Went MS Gates-ish?

"Anyone who's been paying attention has seen the iPad go from a VERY stable device to a buggy, bloated, and very crashy device in just 2 years."

"This is how most operating systems fall apart:  Manufacturers keep on throwing more shit at them until the system bogs down and becomes a power-hungry, slow, bloated, crashy beast."

"To think that it will work the same way against television manufacturers, media companies and cable companies simultaneously would be foolish."

+1... Informative analysis, there Popo...

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 15:29 | 2224896 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Companies like governments end up with entrenched departments that must continuously justify their existance and their need to grow and het higher pay. The software writers just keep writing, the engineers just keep layering on new bells and whistles, and eventually the law of large numbers enters the picture and overly complicated systems fail.

 

In general terms, this recognition has always been one of the strengths of Russian engineering, but I digress.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:23 | 2224079 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

I just downloaded the stock anti-gravity app for my iPad!  Fundamentals do not matter any more.  Its all about HFT's and government cheese.    

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:27 | 2224095 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Looks like some gravity hit. Anyone know why AAPL just had a mini flash crash?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL+Basic+Chart&t=1d

My guess is just gravity.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:45 | 2224391 Head_Shots_Work
Head_Shots_Work's picture

You just HAD to go and say it didn't you! I'm guessing the thought police haven't visited lately?

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:08 | 2224035 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

HEY no need for personal attacks here!

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:06 | 2224033 The Disappointed
The Disappointed's picture

Head rush nothing! He's gonna have a stroke!

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:25 | 2224087 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

iNosebleed

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 11:57 | 2223991 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Even if this chart is wrong, which is doubtful; chasing stock prices rarely end well. Sometimes you must admit that you simply missed the boat and look for another. Goodbye AAPL. I'll see you when your back at port.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:25 | 2224084 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

AAPL = bump and run reversal pattern. you did miss the run up, but just in time for the iBubble to pop. time for shorts and medium term puts

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 11:57 | 2223993 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Nominal vs. Real

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:25 | 2224089 pupton
pupton's picture

Are you the same "LoneStarHog" from the Bullion Direct forum (who dropped from that scene a couple years ago)?  Why don't we see you on BD any more?

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 11:57 | 2223997 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

So, it's a great time to go all in AAPL? What could go wrong?

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:00 | 2224004 Mercury
Mercury's picture

But if you connect the 10, 20, or 30 recent AAPL lows with a ruler and draw a line from left to right...

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 15:30 | 2224909 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

.....don't use a ruler, get a set of French curves.....a ruler is just too analog.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 11:59 | 2224006 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Gawd Damn, look at that.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:00 | 2224010 SofaPapa
SofaPapa's picture

Beautiful charting!  Kudos.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:00 | 2224013 Darkness
Darkness's picture

There are too many lines on this graph... Buy Gold. 

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:00 | 2224014 Rainman
Rainman's picture

The quants were teens smoking weed and guzzling Red Bull when the last bout of irrational QQQ exuberance was in full swing. So this time must be different.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:01 | 2224019 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

superimpose the nikkie from 1985, and the housing index from 1992 to the chart.  Apple longs keep arguing about their 100b in cash.  At last check msft also had roughly 90-95b in cash and they have a market cap of 270b, AND don;t have to worry as much about margin compression

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:08 | 2224020 Flounder
Flounder's picture

"But its different this time." - Thats what I heard when the only investment required in the late nineties was to buy DELL.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:01 | 2224021 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Sure ... and you will pay $100 for a loaf of bread if that chart plays out.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:03 | 2224022 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Unless AAPL shifts into the search market (think Siri + search), its margin will eventually be squeezed by Samsung.

AAPL already dominates tech & retail.  Search is the only market big enough to justify a higher market cap.  If I were google, I'd watch out.  AI + voice + search could disrupt it.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:08 | 2224037 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

APPLs LT growth model is all about China. They dont have the content/censorship problems that Google and Facebook have, the latter two being effectively locked out.

As for margin pressure, the Chinese are obsessed with brand prestige and Samsung is just nowhere near APPL in terms of branding in Greater China.

APPL does not have a deal with China Mobile, but it will soon.

Their flagship store in HK is a constant mob scene.

Renes APPLcart

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:21 | 2224069 taniquetil
taniquetil's picture

As an Asian-American who has visited the Far-East in the last 5 years, I can confirm that brand obsession in the Far-East is mind-boggling-ly huge on a scale that you can't even imagine in the US.

 

Every amateur photographer buys a fucking Canon Eos + $500 lens without even knowing what an aperture is, and kids (who doubtless have no jobs because they are able to do so) line up for hours for new iProducts (and egg the store when they have to wait a couple hours for them). It not only makes you wonder where they get the money to do so but what the quality of life must be if they spend hours in line for basically the same iPhone they just bought 6 months ago.

 

Next time you see a crowd of Japanese/Chinese tourists in the States, count the total value of electronics they have on them. I guarantee you it tops 1-month's gross salary. And I guarantee you not a single one of those people knows anything about tech.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:29 | 2224086 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

it's likely due to extreme consumption signalling by males to compete for scarce weddable females in China.  From what I gather, if you have no $$ (or an apartment), you will never get a wife, or family.

 

That's a lot of pressure for men to be successful, or display success, to have the opportunity in mating selection.  All these extravagent conspicuous consumption is for females, and other men to back the f**ck off, cuz you have the big swinging dick.

 

Is it any wonder that the number 1 tv show in China is a dating show.

 

Mating selectivity also underpins the real estate bubble.  Chinese women tend not to marry men that don't have their own apartment.  And men with apartment are constantly seeking out single females.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:33 | 2224116 prains
prains's picture

Dude the entire story for the last 10 000 years has ALL been about vag, including yours and mine. this is not a new phenomena, just layered in context, that's all.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 14:04 | 2224475 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

That is true, but the scale at which it's occurring at this point in history is ming-boggling. We're talking billions of people.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 14:11 | 2224500 viahj
viahj's picture

just like most thing, scale matters.  sure, thoughout history, bling to get vag is the norm but this particular point in fiat-time, the sheer numbers of single males is remarkably way out of scale for most of history. 

 

edit: should have refreshed first, beat by minutes

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 15:14 | 2224798 smashmouth football
smashmouth football's picture

There's something else you have to keep in mind that is probably unprecedented in human history -- China has enforced a so-called "one child" policy for several decades.  This policy, combined with cultural norms favoring a male offspring, has resulted in an extreme male-female imbalance in their population.  There has been a lot of anecdotal evidence that Chinese parents, aided by modern medical technology which makes it possible to know the sex of a fetus early enough during gestation to abort safely, selectively abort females.  I forget where I read it, but IIRC there are something like 1.08 males per female among Chinese young adults.  That's tens of millions of angry, frustrated Chinese men who have no realistic prospect for mating or even recreational sex.  A recipe for social unrest on a massive scale.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 18:11 | 2225891 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

hookers, porn and blow up dolls should be a great export to China.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:10 | 2227615 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Hookers could emigrate but you wouldn't want to "export" them. That would be wrong.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:10 | 2227616 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Hookers could emigrate but you wouldn't want to "export" them. That would be wrong.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:10 | 2227617 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Hookers could emigrate but you wouldn't want to "export" them. That would be wrong.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:28 | 2224096 oldschool
oldschool's picture

Good point.  I'm curious though, given the rate of copyright infringement in China and environs, what are the prospects for Apple knock-offs there?

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:23 | 2224297 Mercury
Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:39 | 2224130 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

yeah but that Canon 5d mark II is fucking AMAZING. One of the very few products that is truly a game changer for indie film.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:50 | 2224184 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

As far as playing a stock, I'd venture to guess that ADBE is going to see a major spike in sales this year courtesy of AAPL defections.

ADBE is quite aware of this and is now actively targeting FCP users. It's a brilliant strategy and it's working. They have really perfected the integration with HDSLR cameras, and that is the next wave without a doubt. AAPL just seemed to throw in the towel in this area and said "no mas".

My guess is that ADBE will see $60 before AAPL sees $750.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:53 | 2224197 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

"I think, therefore I…."

No wait.

"I think I am, therefore…"

Once more try.

"I think I am there for a bunch of hedge funds and momo HFT algos to take every last penny I have invested in AAPL."

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:55 | 2224204 green888
green888's picture

 I think I think, sounder philosophy 

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:59 | 2224218 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Yeah, kinda depends on where you are in the China growth story, but assuming the rate of growth is at or near current, and given that Samsung and Apple kind of operate in different areas of the mobile market, I really see both companies being a good long term buy.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 15:34 | 2224932 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Very nice WB....being an old geezer, I have seen these "one decision" stocks quite a few times over my life....Xerox comes to mind, as one example. In today's rigged market, shorting is never a good idea unless it is some little company totally under the radar.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:09 | 2224039 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We're going to China style internet soon anyway.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:13 | 2224049 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Perhaps, but you can see why APPLs model is China ready whereas Google and Facebook have a big problem there.

The walled garden approach also has it's benefits in an IP wild west like Chna.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:36 | 2224122 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea well I hear there will be free WiFi at the FEMA forced labor camps too.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:38 | 2224128 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

That's a great point Banzai. Other pundits have said the same thing in a roundabout way but you nailed  it down hard.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:54 | 2224201 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Apple, like most large corporations, doesn't give a damn about liberty.  iFascism is on the rise these days, and Apple will ride that wave to new and massive profits.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:12 | 2224270 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Good thing you aren't forced to buy stuff from Apple. That would truly be iFacism.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:50 | 2224406 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Well, with other central banks buying their stock and our central bank bailing out the others, technically I am forced to buy it, no?

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:50 | 2224407 object_orient
object_orient's picture

Have kids in school? Pay property taxes? Then you are forced to buy iPads.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:05 | 2224029 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

But, but Gold is the bubble not equities???

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:10 | 2224040 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Was the Bank of Israel buying the NASDAQ '99?  Because they, and all Central Banks, are buying AAPL now.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:14 | 2224053 stickyfingers
stickyfingers's picture

Looks parabolic and we all know how that ends.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:15 | 2224054 sablya
sablya's picture

AAPL is tanking right now.  What do you know...is that bullish too?

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:17 | 2224060 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Still cannot wrap my head around icrap being worth more than Exxon or Cheveron, at least as per the market indices.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:30 | 2224104 knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

"iCrap"???????? Who makes better computers and gadgets????

Now whether or not they are needed is an open question?

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:45 | 2224125 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well if you do real number crunching and need the machine to drive actual manufacturing equipment, IBM is one, but there are several others.

Blogging is hardly "value added" in the real economy fucknut.

Besides, you still need power to run that icrap.  Apple has more "value" than many energy companies.  If you really think apple runs bartertown, think again.

But I am sure you are smarter than I.  Just like we told the fat kid when playing street football as kids, you go long.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:41 | 2224142 pupton
pupton's picture

I'm with you.  iCrap is all "optional" toys as far as I can tell.  Microsoft runs every business machine I can see.  Intel makes the chips, Exxon supplies the energy we need.  Apple supplies the toys.  I am guessing that if the S ever HTF APPL will get vaporized because people need food, booze, gas, smokes and clothes more than a new iToy.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:48 | 2224171 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

There you go.  One game changer would be if apple were to release all source codes and let industry really have free-reign over their pseudo UNIX system.  Then apple would control the world.  Their decision regarding adobe has already shown that apple is all about control.  No suprise the Chinese love apple.

Real innovators have to have control over their machines, this is not allowed in the world of apple.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:05 | 2224243 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Excuse me sir.  Would you please take my iPhone in trade for some ammunition? Food? Anything?  The people still buying useless personal electronic devices have a very rude awakening coming their way.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 19:21 | 2226085 noses
noses's picture

And I was hoping the holy warriors were taking their OS wars somewhere else.

Just some facts:

• Apple is indeed the largest seller of a certified Unix that may even be called Unix. No Penguin guano.

• It's not only about control. It's about getting as many people as possible to beg to be allowed to pay for the gadgets (just like those US citizens who are living in a giant concentration camp where the governmentally licensed pedophiles have the right to grab a feel of their children at every airport and still call it "land of the free" and enjoy paying for that privilege).

• The Chinese (leaders) don't really like Apple's products as they are an obvious threat to their control over people.

• If you want to be in control of anything you have to understand the technology. It's not that hard…

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:17 | 2224063 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

One thing I do know. Apple has recently lost their lead in Film production and post production. In fact, they have now made enemies of their former great allies in that field. And that is the most high end of high end customer...and Apple just lost them.

Everybody is moving over to Adobe. including me (something I never thought I'd hear myself say).

Apple fucked up big time in this area. BIG TIME.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:47 | 2224167 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

I'm interested in more details on why you say they have made enemies in Film production. Was it the flap over Final Cut Pro?

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:09 | 2224256 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

The list of things that suck about the new Final Cut X is really too long to post here. What it boils down to is that it's not really a new FCP but rather it's i-movie on steroids. It was a big big let down for FCP users who bought it right out of the gate. Additionally, it doesn't read FCP files (which is BEYOND stupid). And probably, the biggest problem is that it requires a lot of transcoding to work with DSLR cameras (as did FCP). This is particularly bad since DSLR is really now the preferred method of filming for indie and even studio films.

If you just google "Final Cut X sucks", you will see professional editors ripping it to shreds endlessly.

I've been working on FCP for years. I just walked away from it less than a month ago and moved to Adobe (at some not so minor expense). Barring some drastic drastic change on their part, they are toast. Adobe has jumped WAY ahead of them in this field. By a HUGE margin. Apple is now, for the first time in a long time, playing catch-up. And judging by how they've responded to the professional editors complaints about it, they don't want to play in this field any more. In fact, they no longer even offer support for existing FCP users and all retailers were required to take any existing FCP units off the shelves. A total slap in the face really.

Here's a funny bit the editors from Conan O'Brien did on final Cut X.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KxATe7MNNM

(PS: all the problems they speak of...are real. Honestly...is sucks big time. I was shocked at how miserably Apple failed.)

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:15 | 2224275 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Thanks for the info. I saw the Conan satire after it came out but didn't realize how bad it had gotten since then. Sure looks like a major screw-up on Apple's part. It ain't the first time.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:35 | 2224350 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

in the end, I don't think it's going to hurt Apple too much...but it will benefit Adobie a great deal. (I know they now have my business as well as that of just about every cutter and shooter I know)

I'll be watching for their earnings (ADBE) on March 19 for any signs of this pick-up in business.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 14:03 | 2224469 Maos Dog
Maos Dog's picture

It's not just Final Cut, is seems that everything over the last few months just sucks:

Lion - Sucks, slowed down my mac, crashed iTunes on install ?!?!?!??!?!??!?

iCloud - Sucks, photostream is buggy, removed the best feature of their old cloud, which was idrive

iOS5 - Sucks, slower, buggy, crashes, WTF???? 

AppleTV - No buffering, crashes if you get a big lag spike, again WTF?

WTF Guys? 

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:25 | 2224317 iamtheeggman wh...
iamtheeggman whooooooooooooo's picture

There is rumor, once again, that Apple may buy Adobe....

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:43 | 2224377 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

That would actually make sense for Apple. It would also explain why they are seemingly just walking away from such a lucrative and dedicated market in film production. But f they buy ADBE, it would have to be a quite a premium over the current price. At least $50 per share would be my guess.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 17:12 | 2225597 Bear
Bear's picture

Sitting on 100 Billion ... why not buy it ... I think this is the best bet I've seen i a long time. It's long on Adobe for me.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:19 | 2224065 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Looks like free money to me!!! What could go wrong with the wise and benevolent Fed on your side? (Yuck, that felt bad to write even in jest)

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:21 | 2224072 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Are you saying that our Jesus Messiah Stock AAPL is as overvalued as Internet Bubble NASDAQ?

No! This is impossible. Cramer said it is different this time!

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:21 | 2224073 Gomie
Gomie's picture

AAPL flash crash??? Fell 16pt in minutes.

 

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:37 | 2224124 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I just heard a loud 'OY VEY' from Tel Aviv'! 

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:22 | 2224074 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

All AAPL has to do is continue to chug out the profits.  At some point the cash haul in the bank will be so large that the price will not correct substantially.  Its 100B now, but because the market is expanding for them it could eaily be 200B in 1-2 years.

What are they gonna do when AAPL's cash = more than the market cap of all their competitors?  It would so overly influence all the indices that contain it that they would be forced to refigure it across the board.  Also - I would think DJ at some point will HAVE to add AAPL - its the 30 "biggest" across sectors.  When AAPL has more in cash than the entire market cap of MSFT, it would be hard to argue why they are not in the DJIA.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:44 | 2224155 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"it would be hard to argue why they are not in the DJIA."

Already hard to argue this now.  All I can say is apple better do something with all that paper.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:48 | 2224172 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Start paying dividends?

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:53 | 2224191 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Employees at foxconn might have something to say about that.  Moreover, how many other NASDAQ listed companies pay dividends and what is the average dividend per share price? 

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:01 | 2224226 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Just Google it. There's a lot of buzz about APPL paying dividends as one way to deal with their mountain of cash.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:14 | 2224274 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Again if you still believe the "dollar-cost-averaging" lie, by all means, go long.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:17 | 2224283 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Not me. This market is broken. I'm on board for getting out of everything and going physical.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:52 | 2224194 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

buy Greece

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:53 | 2224196 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

or California

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:27 | 2224093 Ura Bonehead
Ura Bonehead's picture

Rorschach would be proud.  Ink blots and stock technicals.  Gotta love it.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:29 | 2224101 POpatriot
POpatriot's picture

Look I hate Apple products.  I think they are incredbily over priced and I just don't like the product in general.  Not to mention Al Gore, the founder of the internet, sits on their board which also drives me nuts.  Nevertheless,  Apple has a PE ratio of 15 ttm and a forward ratio of 11.  Last year they grew earnings over 100%.  As much as the Apple fad could be over tomorrow there are actual fundamentals driving this stock.  Its not like they aren't making money as was the case with the .com bust.  I think comparing AAPL to the .com bubble that didn't have any underlying fundamentals is just silly.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:44 | 2224153 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

They are higher priced but not "incredibly" so. You get what you pay for. Their laptops and desktops last longer than average and command premium prices when resold on eBay and as refurbs from vendors like Geeks.com.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 14:01 | 2224461 POpatriot
POpatriot's picture

Well when I can buy two Toshiba's with the same or better hardware I think they're way overpriced as I don't think they will live anywhere close to twice as long.  Apple is a marketing genius though.  What makes the products different is it is now "cool" to own Apple.  My wife would never know the difference as all she does is web browsing basics but she has been bugging me forever to get one of these stupid machines.  She could careless how long it lasts, how fast it is whatever.  Its the its "cool" aspect.

Its the same way I can buy Wrangler jeans at Target for $17 a pair last forever with the company having minimal margins or I could buy True Religion Douchery for $200 a pair with an insane mark up.  Same idea.

Apple is the True Religion of Computers and as long as it stays "cool" worldwide its cash flow and earnings will continue to soar as will the stock price.  My underlying point however is Apple's stock price is insane because they're earnings are insane.  It has great fundamentals in terms of finance

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:05 | 2224245 iamtheeggman wh...
iamtheeggman whooooooooooooo's picture

But if you own Apple, you get to cast your vote to send Al Gore off the island every year. I vote for everyone but Al on the board. I wonder how many other shareholders do, too.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:37 | 2224359 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

I do.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:40 | 2224134 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Peak Apple

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:49 | 2224178 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Apple would be wise to spend their paper on physical silver, if they want to be able to make superior products in the future ... and survive.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:57 | 2224210 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Thanks what I am thinking.  many specialty minerals in an Apple product.  Buy the miners and control their own supply.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 12:59 | 2224220 amadeusb4
Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:04 | 2224240 My Days Are Get...
My Days Are Getting Fewer's picture

AAPL gapped up 15 points from 430 to 445.

Most of the time, all chart gaps get filled.

it is just a question of when.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:18 | 2224289 geoffr
geoffr's picture

Oh dear me. I know this site tends to be skeptical to cynical, but Apple is different. It has $100 billion in cash. And that is growing each day.

The amount of units it sells is growing.

Their P/E ratio is low, especially relative to the dot com bubble and the rate they are currently growing.

I cannoth fathom how anyone can say Apple stock is in a bubble. Yes, it's market cap is high. Yes, the price is at historic highs. There's a reason. It has a boat load of cash.

And it's recent run up stems primarily from a blog post in December which caught a lot of people's attention. It basically said "hey guys Apple is sitting at a P/E of about 8 and $80 billion in cash."

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:19 | 2224293 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I love AAPL but I never go there with my money outside of my apple stuff. Way to out of the box for mel

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:19 | 2224295 saywhat
saywhat's picture

Two Words -- Addressable markets!

They are just now getting their nose under the enterprise tent (buh-buy crackbery)

Education markets -- How long will our kids be lugging aroung 40lb back packs full of dead trees?

China?

Denile isn't a river...

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:19 | 2224296 saywhat
saywhat's picture

Two Words -- Addressable markets!

They are just now getting their nose under the enterprise tent (buh-buy crackbery)

Education markets -- How long will our kids be lugging aroung 40lb back packs full of dead trees?

China?

Denile isn't a river...

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:22 | 2224304 ivars
ivars's picture

Apple stock is in the precrash mode.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:29 | 2224330 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Another fucking joke! $1000 for a share of a computer maker and silver and Gold are in a "bubble"? 

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:34 | 2224347 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

10b cash or cash equiv. $140b balance sheet.

It borrows against the accounts of its customers (who may be insolvent, the new 'tragically hip').

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=aapl

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:37 | 2224357 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Android is giving apple hard time. How much Jews have vested interest in GOOG? Are Jews going to dump AAPL and move to GOOG? Leaving BAG-Holder behind?

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 14:04 | 2224480 bpmf1911
bpmf1911's picture

its ik, bullz cant see a top until AFTER a %15 correction.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 15:24 | 2224870 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

iCasino, not for me- the iBubble comes to everyone eventually.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 02:39 | 2227171 cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

aapl is a bubble, but when is it going to correct?

 

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