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Guest Post: A Postmortem Of Niall Ferguson's Otherwise Epic Lecture: Empires On The Edge Of Chaos

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A Postmortem Of Niall Ferguson's Otherwise Epic Lecture:  Empires On The Edge Of Chaos

 

Niall Ferguson: Empires on the Edge of Chaos from Australian Broadcasting Corporation on FORA.tv

A few words on this IMO must watch lecture - Niall Ferguson: Empires on the Edge of Chaos 

While Fergie is brilliant in his historical analysis, he gets a few niggling points wrong - Which I suspect is in part from having an Anglocentric viewpoint, which leads one to ignore some fairly hushed up (by the MSM) points of the good 'ol US of A, and in part from his rather British nature of believing in above all else, order, honoring of contracts, rule of law, and other quaint genteel notions of civil society.

 

Point One:  Interest payments as a share of US revenue

Fergie assumes that since China is getting out of US debt and into commodities, the US will have some problem making interest payments.  Given the current state of America exceptionalism lawlessness (MBS, Robosigning, MF Global, etc., etc., ab surdium, ad nauseam)... It should be apparent to anyone paying close attention that in order to solve these problems, the Fed will simply...  Print. 

After all, it's not like "preserving the value of the currency those treasury bonds you bought" is included anywhere in the fine print or anything.  Given that (as Zerohedge has well documented) contract law in the US is now interpreted to the advantage of the highest political bidder, at this point defaulting on an "unspoken agreement" with a bunch of foreigners is a very low threshold to cross indeed.

Point Two:  Gold investing

Fergie states that 10% of one's well-heeled portfolio should be held in gold, but no more:  Deflation will keep the price in check.  This ignores the fact that gold does well in deflation as well as inflation, which is because of doubts about the soundness of the currency (debt deflation requires future printing to "make good" on the debt to save the system).  Also, see Point One.

Point Three:  Fear of hyperinflation

Fergie again states that the problem facing the US is not inflation, but deflation.  Again, please kindly refer to Point One.

I fail to see how this ends any other way than with a crisis of the (soon to be known as the former) world's reserve currency.  We now return to your regularly scheduled coverage of the collapse of the US Empire and the death of it's King Dolla, courtesy of Zerohedge.  That is all.

 

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Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:19 | 2308262 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Ferguson is a tool for the Rothschilds. Evil fuckers!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:26 | 2308273 Market Efficien...
Market Efficiency Romantic's picture

Exactly, not even hiding his interests well. by now turning BB TV off, whenever he gets on, RS-policy-influenca-(p/m)uppet

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:35 | 2308285 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Perhaps, but please also consider who he gave the lecture to..!

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:50 | 2308300 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

The gold market and interest rates have been rigged leading to an enormous world-wide bubble that is now collapsing.  Ferguson paints this as a normal cycle of empire. It is not.

Ferguson simply spews chewed-up baby food and pretends it is haute cuisine.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:54 | 2308302 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Agreed.

But let's assume the above commentators are correct, and he is 'on the take' from Red Shield & co. LLC.  He's addressing the 1% of Australia, and advising them to keep 10% of their NW in gold, no more, no less.

Which makes me think that there's going to be an attempt at an engineered devaluation on the order of 90%.

Gotta keep the pecking order orderly, wot wot.  All very neat and tidy, must maintain order, you know.

I think there's more than a chance it will get away from them, but I'm an optimist.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:57 | 2308310 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

"We now return to your regularly scheduled coverage of the collapse of the US Empire and the death of it's King Dolla, courtesy of Zerohedge." ...... Lol

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 00:26 | 2308857 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Fergie is a well spoken and deep thinkning tool, in a long line of well spoken and deep thinking fools in the service of the PeeTeeBe.

Just to give you one example, he was in India last year on a breath-less tour along with, amongst other panelists.... Palin.

Case closed. Blah blah blah. Tosser.

ori

/machine-strong-human-weak/

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 02:44 | 2308986 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

I had never seen this FORA.tv site before.  With the exception of the guys from Myth Busters & Peter Schiff, it looks like a collection of folks from the Progressive Side of the Force.  NT Times, Commonwealth Club of California, environmental Nazis, Krugman, Clinton, Roubini, her Highness Pelosi and so on. I did search Ron Paul and found him there. Admittedly, there is a large volume of content there and I didn't watch much of it.  I just scanned to see who it was they were promoting and it seemed to me to be a bit one sided.  

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:50 | 2308314 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

It is completely out of control and those at the centre are telling stories to send the cigar chomping pissed-off sheep down the wrong alley.

That twirp Ferguson is so full of it that he is only accepted by the 1% as profound.

There is fiction in the space between Nial's lines on the page and reality...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTybGAAMyAI

 

 

 

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 07:13 | 2309106 Element
Element's picture

I've gotten to the point where I can't bare to listen to the BBC, and more recently the Australian ABC also (otherwise known in the suburbs and on the land as the gayBC ...).

They're both utter crap.

Pure state propaganda networks, far worse even than TASS or VOA.

The only thing more degenerative to the human brain and nerve stem is US National Public Radio, which is truly fucking bilious and aneurism inducing (but PBS NewsHour runs a close second).

Anyone listening to those networks or taking much of anything they say 'seriously', is simply a lost cause.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:13 | 2308487 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Good luck with a "90%" controlled deflation. In a real hyerinflation there are large denomination notes scattered in the gutters. If you are betting on HI O suggest all in physical. Really Coocoo would be to run up a bunch of loan debt.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:15 | 2308496 Devout Republican
Devout Republican's picture

This guy knows global warming is a hoax, so he is okay with me.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:20 | 2308263 AUD
AUD's picture

For more on Niall Ferguson read Ascent of Hooey, found under recent commentaries, here.

Niall Ferguson is another of the Bank of England's men.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:40 | 2308385 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Huh.  Who woulda thunkit, him being a PhD teaching at Ivory League schools and such.

 

Those guys are usually well-grounded.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 23:48 | 2308707 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Thanks  Aud,

 

That Ascent of Hooey article by Robert Landis is a brilliant disection of Niall Ferguson's promotion The Ascent of Money. 

http://www.goldensextant.com/

Both Howe and Landis are articulate, well researched and on target.

The intro of the Ascent of Hooey article:

On October 16, 1929, Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, made a famous prediction: “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” [1] The prediction, coming as it did less than two weeks before Black Tuesday, ultimately ruined the popular reputation of this celebrity economist. On November 13, 2008, some two months after the Federal takeover of Fannie Mae (September 7) and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (September 13), Niall Ferguson, Professor of History at Harvard University, published The Ascent of Money (Penguin Press, 2008). Only time will tell whether this book, a spirited defense of the monetary status quo directed at the general public, will do for this celebrity historian what his stock price prediction did for Professor Fisher.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:04 | 2308461 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

NF received various awards from Jewish organizations for his bio of the Rothschilds. Says all. Complete Zionist stooge. Over at his site, he's got a short piece on the oncoming IranWar; thinks it'll be a 6-day walkover, like '67.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 05:37 | 2308730 fleur de lis
fleur de lis's picture

Well if it's going to be such a fast and fun war why doesn't he crawl out from the bed he's hiding under and dress up like a tough little soldier boy and march around showing off his shiny new gun or something and sign up to fight the big, mean Iranians. 

Oh, that's right I forgot, that's for Americans to do. So as to keep his masters happy.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 23:00 | 2308743 Nukular Freedum
Nukular Freedum's picture

Yes he's also currently working on the official biography of Kissinger (Kissinger liked his hagiography of the Rothschilds). This tells us all we need to know about Niall. As I mention down thread he used to write good books.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 01:44 | 2308939 magpie
magpie's picture

got book three of the Rothschild saga ?

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 01:55 | 2308955 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Yeah. It's going to be titled The Plunder Games

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:20 | 2308264 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Fergie should stick with singing..... Tell the oil companies that its deflation, bitchez!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:22 | 2308267 Market Efficien...
Market Efficiency Romantic's picture

The ever so ivory-towerish Fergie... IMHO missing the historical dynamics and lacking critical knowledge of instruments involved today and relevant to assessment of situation and historical relativity. The British Harvard historian just toooo close to the centers of eternal power.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 01:57 | 2308956 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

If history is written by the victors then it's published by their servants.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:24 | 2308269 css1971
css1971's picture

The best lies are 99% truth.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:28 | 2308277 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I think a lot of deflationists also make the false assumption that prices are dictated by money supply in a crisis.  There is simply no way to deflate a fiat hyperinflation.  The price of gold could go to 1 million an ounce on only the current money supply if dollars suddenly had the utility of fill dirt.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:43 | 2308292 AUD
AUD's picture

You are one of the few who understands that value is not dictated by quantity but quality.

In the case of the obligations of government, they have no quality, so no utility & no value.

Of course we will have hyperinflation, asking when is like asking what day the stockmarket was going to crash in 2008. Hard to predict an irrational credit bubble.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:30 | 2308281 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Of course in our debt based money system, eventually, debt service payments will consume the entire revenue.. it's mathematiacally guarenteed. 

 

Martin Armstrong puts 2015 as year of next crisis.. which will be the big one.  Sept. 2015.  

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:38 | 2308288 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

You miss the point.

Interest payments will be met by... Printing more money!

Whether it comes into being via debt creation, or outright "printing" is moot.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:03 | 2308321 AUD
AUD's picture

Whether it comes into being via debt creation, or outright "printing" is moot

Actually, no it's not. It is the debt creation angle that has kept the contemporary monetary system 'functioning' for decades despite the shocking quality of the debt that comprises the monetary system.

As Melchior Palyi said in 1958

By slow attrition, the result is likely to be the same as in the case of outright money-printing by the government itself. The old-fashioned technique of paper money inflation 'worked' faster than its modern, seemingly less reprehensible counterpart that camouflages the production of fiat money by channeling it through the money market and the central bank.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:09 | 2308330 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

If you can, please describe why the Fed (and all CBs with their respective debt currencies) cannot simply buy all the debt issued by their respective government's treasuries.

Also please describe why (in lieu of the above option) those respective treasuries' governments cannot simply suspend the rules (via legislation) and issue 10x the current amount of currency in circulation.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:14 | 2308333 AUD
AUD's picture

Read the quote from Melchior Palyi again & then again if you need to. It will answer your two questions.

What do you think he means by 'worked' faster?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:17 | 2308336 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Sum it up for us.  We're all ears.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:45 | 2308398 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yeah agreed, please sum up.

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:08 | 2308462 AUD
AUD's picture

He is saying that the old fashioned technique of issuing currency - the government printing it directly - destroyed the currency - hyperinflation - much faster than the "modern, seemingly less reprehensible counterpart that camouflages the production of fiat money by channeling it through the money market and the central bank" - the Treasury selling debt to the primary dealers, who sell it to others & on & on, with the central bank buying some portion to move the rate of interest - the inverse of the bond price.

You people want hyperinflation next week? Have the Treasury print irredeemable currency directly.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:11 | 2308482 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

You still haven't made an argument for why US interest payments will simply be met by printing more money.

So they don't print it directly - What's to stop them from monetizing debt?

Same result.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:38 | 2308563 AUD
AUD's picture

What's to stop them from monetizing debt?

Nothing. That's exactly what they are doing. But the difference between the Treasury printing currency directly & the current 'system' is not moot.

The same result maybe but it cannot be denied the 'system' has survived decades despite the apalling quality of the debt that comprises the 'system'.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 02:07 | 2308964 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

AUD's observation may in fact be a conscious choice by TPTB to slowly disseminate and infiltrate debt wider, deeper and more comprehensively than in past currency bubbles.

The scale this time is world-wide but the intended results are the same and will require extensive and complete order (translation: global currency) from the chaos sowed by stealth and finesse.

Bigger bubble....longer fuse.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:23 | 2308516 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Think you are describing salvation via MMT

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 03:16 | 2308999 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Interest payments will be met by... Printing more money!

______________________________________________

Every Ponzi is enabled by a source of wealth at the bottom.

Ponzis are a way to concentrate that wealth to the top.

Ponzis collapse from the bottom.

USD Ponzi will end as the wealth at the bottom is going deplete.

People join the USD ponzi because it allows them to acquire goods.

One day, as a USD goes down from US of A to a third world country looking for wealth to be transfered to the top, that third world country will send back as an answer that there is no more wealth to be sucked up.

Not a lack of participation will but a lack of goods to trade.

Turning point when this occurs in more and more bottom countries.

Up to that moment, there will be no hyperinflation.

Ponzis collapse from the bottom but speaking of the bottom is much less sexy than speaking of US citizen societies.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 07:09 | 2309063 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

See what happens when you give an insightful new post instead of the same old US Citizenism posts?  Up arrows!

It is the eternal nature of US Citizens to get sick of hearing the same damn thing 10x per day, regardless of whether it is true.  US Citizenism is easier understood if talked about in different ways.  Look to the media for example.  They change the celebrity gossip.  US Citizens like new US Citizen celebrity gossip as often as they change underwear- at least once per week.  (However, individual celebrity gossip may be extended in case of national emergency, which is eternal).

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 11:55 | 2309762 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Very insightful.

Very non-can kicking.

+1

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:58 | 2308315 ekm
ekm's picture

I've followed Martin Armstrong for 2 years already. All his "predictions" are no different from anybody's else, just lucky hit and miss. I still do follow him, but I am interested in his analysis which is super brilliant, not his predictions.

Nobody knows what's going to happen 10 minutes from now, figure out in 2015. I call this "prophetic rapture". Humans are inclined to fall into it. Meredith Whitney comes to mind. Then the famous ones like Mark Faber, Nouriel Roubini etc. Hit and miss. Pure luck.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 08:30 | 2309196 jayman21
jayman21's picture

I also follow him and find what he writes interesting.  He, if not always, almost always says the computer model is saying this or that.  He has also said on many occasions that he does not know why the market tops and bottoms based on his model.  He has some ideas, but never really comes out and says it.  I think the fact he says "computer model" makes him different than Meredith or Mark or fill in the blank.

 

His grasp of history is like nothing I have ever read anywhere else.  Agreed, just pure brilliant.  His book is out in August.  I saw a to be released not yet named book by Martin Armstrong on Amazon.  Excited to see what he writes.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:41 | 2308290 vmromk
vmromk's picture

Dear Mr. Ferguson,

With that kind of propoganda, you would make a fine addition to join us here at the Fed.

Please report for work on Monday.

Sincerely,

Benjamin S. Bernanke

Head Scumbag and Printer Extraordinaire

 

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:45 | 2308294 Market Efficien...
Market Efficiency Romantic's picture

Misunderstood hierarchy. Fergie is none of those technocrats posing as instrument for execution. He is more of a senior ideological whistler to the organization.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:24 | 2308299 akak
akak's picture

Anyone who tries to argue that the REAL threat to one's savings at this juncture within out collapsing fiat monetary system is some supposed, never-before-seen fiat currency deflation (the dollar is going to increase in value?  When in history has this EVER been the result of exponentially rising governmental indebtedness?), and not the historically unchallengeable and inevitable fiat currency debasement or collapse, is either a fool or a shill for the status-quo power elite.  By uttering such disingenuous, dishonest, malicious and implicitly pro-Establishment propaganda, this man has instantly discredited himself from being taken seriously as a sincere messenger of the truth.

The fact that Establishment defenders such as Ferguson here, or the vile and reprehensible Jon Nadler for example, continue to suggest (in a grudging and lukewarm fashion) that one hold, AT MOST, 10% of their savings in physical precious metals --- the same tepid advice that they gave in radically different, and more stable, circumstances ten or twenty years ago --- is just an implicit claim on their parts that the current world financial and monetary crisis is just another routine "bump in the road", and not the fundamental collapse and paradigm shift that in fact it is.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:46 | 2308400 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

@akak.

+ 10 for Nadler bashing.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:43 | 2308473 akak
akak's picture

Thanks Banksters!

I never pass up a chance to disparage and discredit that horribly dishonest, maliciously contemptible pro-bankster shill Nadler.   That man is as much a malevolent pro-status-quo propaganda mouthpiece and power-sucking Quisling as I have ever read or encountered, and as a supposed "gold market analyst", his many permabearish calls on the price of gold have been uniformly WRONG --- yet this does not stop the corporate-controlled media parrots from quoting him time after time in articles on gold.  I have had several lengthy email exchanges with the man, and I felt both outraged and soiled after each of them.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:34 | 2308686 A_S
A_S's picture

they don't mean currency deflation, they see that as an effect, not the cause like austrians

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 23:23 | 2308786 akak
akak's picture

Then they aren't talking about deflation.

Deflation = a decrease in the money supply (but, I would add, NOT necessarily a decrease in the total supply of credit, as credit is NOT money).

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 19:59 | 2308316 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

King Dollar!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:19 | 2308338 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I see a lot of feces being thrown at Mr. Feguson here and I am 3 scotches down so forgive me but he sounds a lot like Kyle Bass who is revered on this site. Their macro warnings seem almost the same....why the feces?

4th scotch.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:29 | 2308359 akak
akak's picture

The feces are being thrown, and rightly so, for one word: "Deflation".

Anyone trying to warn the world's savers and investors today of the supposed "threat of deflation" --- the "threat" of an appreciating fiat currency --- in the face of all historical precedents to the contrary is akin to somebody warning a lost traveler in the middle of the Sahara Desert about the "threat" of drowning.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:31 | 2308365 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Akak agreed completely but since I have no life I watched that 1hr youtube interview with Bass. His general advice was for teh avg person to be ultra conservative and be in cash and productive assets (yes gold) but overall he sounds like Ferguson except ferguson has that wonderful accent. All I am asking is what isthe difference between the two and why is Bass revered?

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:39 | 2308378 akak
akak's picture

I can only answer for myself, but I do not "revere" Kyle Bass either.  If there is a greater or more positive acceptance of Bass' message here, perhaps it is due to his stronger condemnations of the current corrupt financial paradigm than one hears from Ferguson, who in his oh-so-polite-and-polished, upper-class, unemotional British way habitually refuses to condemn the sociopaths at the top, chosing instead to focus on the inevitable collapse of today's status-quo power structure while refusing to cast direct blame at those most responsible for that collapse.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:41 | 2308390 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

good shit akak. I am continually amazed at the acumen of some of the people I find here.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:47 | 2308402 akak
akak's picture

Fonzannoon, I feel that I have no special acumen, but am glad if I am occasionally able to offer a shard of historical perspective or a glimmer of insight to the conversation here every now and then.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:51 | 2308409 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

akak maybe the word is common sense. Because once someone opens their eyes it becomes obvious. But man are a lot of peoples eyes closed.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:57 | 2308426 akak
akak's picture

I agree completely Fonzannoon.

The one subject that I DO feel I have a fair knowledge about, and about which most Americans have virtually none, is monetary history, learned over 30+ years as a world coin collector, and in the course of which I have seen almost countless examples of collapsed fiat currencies (and have even witnessed them firsthand myself several times via  travel in Africa and South America), most if not all of which collapsed due to governmental profligacy and ever-rising indebtedness, such as the fiat currencies imposed on virtually every citizen in the Western world face today.  This is why I become so indignant when I read dishonest, clueless and/or disingenous pro-Establishment mouthpieces warning about some supposed (and mythical) fiat currency deflation --- because it is the exact OPPOSITE, fiat currency debasement and/or collapse, which is the REAL threat today.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:01 | 2308449 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Very true. I wish since there seems to be aconsensus on here of what will be....that some more time was spent on the scenario(s) that will be taking place once things melt down. As someone who thinks it is inivitable I have no clue how society will be once it does.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:08 | 2308478 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

It's damn near impossible to predict, so prepare according to the most likely scenarios.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:16 | 2308498 akak
akak's picture

I often ponder the same questions and scenarios, believe me, but I don't know if I can predict the course of future financial and monetary events all that well either, one reason being that for the first time in history, ALL world currencies are fiat in nature, and so the collapse of any major one could very well bring down all the others, along with the world financial system in their wake.  However, even in this case I do NOT accept the banksters' threats that the collapse of world civilization would inevitably follow --- I think the ingenuity of man will be able to reform the world financial and monetary system without imperiling civilization in the process.  However, there will be GREAT pain and suffering going forward, of that I am convinced --- and even holding precious metals will only help alleviate that pain and suffering, but will not fully insulate anyone from all of those negative developments.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:22 | 2308514 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yeah I hear you. I think it will be th leadership in place will dictate whether we start over fresh and optomism reigns or we start pointing fingers at straw men. That scares me. I may be more prepared than the next guy but that only gets one so far.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:28 | 2308536 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Do the best you can.

But I would stock up on anything you would hate to do without (especially if it's imported).

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:37 | 2308557 akak
akak's picture

.

But I would stock up on anything you would hate to do without (especially if it's imported).

Excellent advice, which I have been following for at least four years now --- especially small or relatively compact items, such as batteries, razor blades, spices, routinely replaced parts of vehicles, computers, or other mechanical devices such as headlights or printer cartridges ("For want of a nail, etc."), matches, ammo if you own guns, etc.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:41 | 2308570 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Anyone else on here a big Pat Tillman fan? Sometimes when I know the consensus thinks I am off with my thinking I remember this eulogy from his navy seal buddy..."So when that little voice in your head tells you not to do the easy things but the right things, it's Pat right in your ear, man, it's Pat."

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:53 | 2308607 LowProfile
Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:54 | 2308420 AUD
AUD's picture

I don't know why Kyle Bass is revered either. He was reported here on ZH as saying "gold has no utility".

Bullshit, gold has the highest utility, it is money - the only thing you can never have too much of.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:07 | 2308469 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I'm sure he agrees (otherwise, why would he own it, and especially to the point of TAKING DELIVERY...).

I'm also sure he said as much (can't remember where ATM though).

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 23:25 | 2308789 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Yeah.  I like the point that HE takes delivery, but anyone he "invests" for, has it "stored" at CRIMEX.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 04:37 | 2309021 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

...It says that in the prospectus?  Really?

Because when he was talking about it, I was pretty sure he took delivery for the fund.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 05:32 | 2309049 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

There was an interview in a post around two weeks ago where he explicitly stated the TX Uni gold is stored in the CRIMEX vault.

I remember commenting on that specifically.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:48 | 2308590 kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

but but his Texanisms are delightful

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:36 | 2308694 web bot
web bot's picture

Mr A:  +1000000000000

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:01 | 2308448 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

I have no idea what the endgame looks like but I can say we have a boatload of debt that must go away before we can begin the healing process. I don't trust those who "know" inflation is around the corner the same way I don't trust the ones on the opposite side of the argument. We don't know the Bernak will print because there are forces at work against him (oil, gold, devalued $, higher food prices, etc). If he destroys the currency the FED will go away forever, and if he prints as been discussed here he will destroy the currency. Will he do it? Possibly, but not for sure.

I've heard very strong arguments for both sides and it is quite clear when this storm hits, in whatever form it takes, it will be like nothing this planet has ever seen. I'm pretty sure gold, guns, beans, and bunkers will provide little comfort or long term protection. It's sad but I just can't see how cooler heads animated but humble faith and unselfishness will prevail... I think we are about to learn about how dark the darkest hour is that precedes the dawn...

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:05 | 2308464 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Abel am I insane to think that if we (US centric, my apologies) were to announce that we are defaulting on our debt (and yes what are you gonna do about it?) and then announced that every american entitlement is cut by 30% across the board..we go through hell...but get through it? Admittadly I am towards the end of my 4th scotch now but I thought I'd ask.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:19 | 2308509 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

Fonz - are you saying that it is a certainty that we print until gas is $20/gal while incomes stay flat? Either way is a total shit show. I'm only saying that both ways, inflation or deflation or both, is a total nightmare. Remember, inflation helps the 1% while deflation helps everyone else. The 1% are currently making all the decisions, but at the end of the day they are only 1%. The pressure has not even begun to build in the US - $4.00/gal gas is nothing. Let the games begin!!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:26 | 2308528 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Abel I am saying that It is already falling apart. Bernank's bluff is already getting called. Whether gas goes to $20 bucks of $10 bucks is almost immaterial. What I am saying is you have to admit you are an alcohic first (5th scotch) before you can begin to heal. But have we already gone off the cliff...or can we turn it around?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:38 | 2308564 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

Fonz - I agree with you. However, I think the real alcoholic has to hit rock bottom before he/she can begin the healing process. We simply have not suffered enough to make the required changes. The free money has helped to make everyone feel a little better but the real change will not come until we experience the consequences of the poor decisions. No one knows how this pain will be inflicted, but it will. And it will likely come in a form no one is expecting... Ouch!!

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:45 | 2308579 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

yeah I guess that is the bottom line. Man it already sucks for so many. It's gonna suck for a lot more.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:52 | 2308601 akak
akak's picture

"Eat hearty tonight men, for tomorrow we dine in Hell."

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 01:45 | 2308942 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

We don't know the Bernak will print because there are forces at work against him (oil, gold, devalued $, higher food prices, etc). If he destroys the currency the FED will go away forever, and if he prints as been discussed here he will destroy the currency. Will he do it? Possibly, but not for sure.

There is no "if." The currency has already been debased and destroyed in the nearly 100 years that the FedRes has been in existence. Purchasing power diminished by what, 98%? Besides, it's not a matter of "if" the ChairSatan will do it or not. The plan requires this action to go from a strong and independent US to a one-world government. The currency must go down to create the "need" for a single financial system for the planet. And so many people are totally unprepared for what is about to happen.

More magical fruit, please.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:38 | 2308380 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

Because he doesn't think there will be hyperinflation and he only recommends a 10% portfolio weight for gold. That's why the feces.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:56 | 2308425 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

 

I see a lot of feces being thrown at Mr. Feguson here and I am 3 scotches down so forgive me but he sounds a lot like Kyle Bass who is revered on this site. Their macro warnings seem almost the same....why the feces?

I am a big fan of Bass.  But Bass is a hedge fund manager, so if he simply says "Be 99% in physical gold, 1% in cash, and keep your cash in US nickles.", it's a little hard to generate Alpha with which to give an excuse to generate fees.

Also, Bass does not anticipate deflation...  And Bass took delivery.

4th scotch.

Easy, boy.  Off to bed with you now.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:58 | 2308439 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I slow down on the 4th one. I will keep this thread alive for a while. Thanks though

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:02 | 2308456 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Cheers!

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 00:15 | 2308843 Nukular Freedum
Nukular Freedum's picture

Because he has been a total shill for the system as it stands. read his book "The Ascent of Credit" (I mean "The ascent of money") to see how.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:20 | 2308343 Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

Anyone notice that Niall Ferguson is not an economist, Keynesian, (certainly not) Austrian or otherwise? Then again, the Keynesian court economists, whom he is obediently channelling in every material respect, are not economists either, wilfully ignorant as they are of human action as incompatible with their manifestly defunct aggregate fetishes. It is obvious from Ferguson's associations that he is a premier Establishment mouthpiece. Deflation = Big Lie. Good luck with that one, fellas.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:39 | 2308370 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Do not disparage the "deflationists".

There will likely be a deflationary episode first...for a while...then the mother of all hyperinflations. Deflation has often been referred to as "the mid-wife of hyperinflation" - depending on the robustness of the underlying monetary/political/economic systems within which it is occurring. Ours have all been sufficiently weakened at this point so as to not be able to withstand the response to the deflationary episode without producing a hyperinflation.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:42 | 2308389 akak
akak's picture

Against which is it more logical and rational to prepare: the three-foot wave that may, at most, spill one's drink on a side table in the cabin of one's boat, or the 100 foot tsunami that promises to smash that boat to splinters?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:47 | 2308403 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

The answer is the same in either case:  Physical gold, in your possession.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:56 | 2308430 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

LP one thing that confuses me is this. Lets say you are smart enough to stock up on PM's. Some point down the road things just melt down. Lets say you live in a well populated area along the coast. I wonder if you can paint apicture for me of what the scene is like. Is it the panicked shit you see on these youtubes?

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:01 | 2308452 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

To be honest, nobody knows.  But it is not outside the realm of possiblity.  I will be surprised if they do not have to deploy the National Guard to the big cities.

My advice is to keep a full tank of gas, and a few jerry cans on hand (use gas stabilizer) in case you need to bug out.

Just remember:  Beans, bullets, bullion, bandages, booze, and boobies.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:08 | 2308475 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If this ends in price controls and bread lines I am going to be pissed. I am 35 and it will suck if I have to pull an El Duque and wash up in Cuba on a raft trying to show off my off speed pitch.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 23:33 | 2308798 Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

"to deploy the US army and assorted mercenaries" - fixed it for you

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 01:50 | 2308949 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

There will be lots of fine, upstanding, blue-helmeted young chaps from Belgium and the Congo and Pakistan who will, for no charge of course, be extremely friendly with our prepubescent daughters.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 02:39 | 2308985 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

My favorite bumper sticker:

 

Blue Helmets Make Great Targets

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 20:34 | 2308372 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Point 4:

Fuck Off Fergie.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:01 | 2308450 The Gold Theory
The Gold Theory's picture

Is this an April fool's day thing?  Why are we commenting on a video that is nearly 2 years old?

I watched this in 2010 the first time it was posted on ZH...

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:13 | 2308488 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Because every day is fking groundhog day gold theory

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:18 | 2308505 gimli
gimli's picture

Sorry --- he's from Harvard, I only believe in dropouts who work out of their garages.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:29 | 2308537 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

they all seem to start at harvard. Some just stay in their garage

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:51 | 2308600 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

"We now return to your regularly scheduled coverage of the collapse of the US Empire and the death of it's King Dolla, courtesy of Zerohedge.  That is all."

 

I hope we didn't miss the scene where the hand writes on the wall Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 21:55 | 2308609 denny69
denny69's picture

Ferguson is a lackey moron and wow! - He's finally getting around to saying that things are growing weird. My nine year old knew that four years ago. Ferguson is a vigorous supporter and enabler of empire at any cost and when our boys are out there killing farmers and poor people, Ferguson is right there on the sideline cheering them on. He's an 'educated' monster who hides his viciousness behind all of his bullshit degrees and books and place among the elites. He's their boy, all right. He should be strenuously avoided unless one needs to know what nasty plans the elites are considering inplementing into our lives. And oh, yeah, he a champion fawner and ass-kisser.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 23:00 | 2308742 fleur de lis
fleur de lis's picture

He's a Rothschild concubine.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:03 | 2308628 dragoneyes74
dragoneyes74's picture

I'm of the opinion that hyperinflation will happen as a result of trying to print our way out of deflation.  I expect massive volatility as the price of gold and silver soars then crumbles then soars higher in huge swings until finally a panic happens and everyone dumps their fiat currencies and rushes for the metals.  

For pure deflation to happen Bernanke would have to stop printing, the banks would have to take massive losses, U.S. bond holders would have to take huge losses, our government would have to abandon their entitlement promises, and we'd have to balance the budget.  Seems like the political pressure to fight the deflationary depression that would come from implementing that would be too great.  Return to paragraph one. 

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:06 | 2308631 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

So an empire falls? So Argentina "failed"?  Did the U.K., the Hapsburg Empire, or Argentina (not an empire, but often brought up as a notable failure) suffer an apocalyptic end?  Mad Max, societal brakedown, and anarchy?  Nope, people got up, ate and went to work the next day.  The overall quality of life, and economic standard of living declined somewhat, but life moved on without bullets, bullion and beans.

Also note, those collapsed empires did not re-adopt a gold standard.

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:09 | 2308642 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thats correct Zimbabwe adopted the dollar. Which shows you what happens when you forget history

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:20 | 2308659 akak
akak's picture

Good point about the speciousness of the banksters' doommongering regarding the collapse of the worldwide fiat currency fiasco. 

However, holding gold or other tangible assets through or during ANY hyperinflation or currency collapse DID allow one to preserve one's savings through those monetary shitstorms, something which NO fiat currency can provide.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:38 | 2308696 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

It's deflation of income and inflation of prices. 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:41 | 2308703 eugene12
eugene12's picture

After reading/watching all this for a period of yrs, I have reached the conclusion that there are a variety of opinions as to how this will all end.  Each opinion has a long line of reasoning as to why their point of view is the "absolutely" right one.  Each opinion is disparaging of all other opinions and many times far from polite.  The reality is they're all opinions.  No one really KNOWS how this will end. 

The same thing goes with the blame game.  Everyone has their favorite "target".  The thing I see is tens of millions gleefully rode the gravy train and thoroughly enjoyed our phantom riches.  I drive by the homes, see all the, relatively, senseless gadgets, the boats, the cars, the cruises and all the rest of the lifestyle we were so proud of. Now it's all over, makes me think of a drunk resentfully pointing out all the people who made him drink.  The reality is the vast majority of us played in one way or another.  Like the drunk, it's the admitting we did that is so tough. 

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 03:27 | 2309003 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The same thing goes with the blame game.

_________________________________________________

A blame game does not exclude causes.

US citizens are the driving force behind the current state of the world.

This crisis started in the US of A.

Blame game helps causes to stay concealed but it does not eliminate their existence.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 04:38 | 2309022 akak
akak's picture

Birth of so-called "US Citizenism: July 4, 1776

Birth of nose-picking, public spitting, roadside shitting, running dog imperialistic, blobbing-up chinese citizenism: 243 BC

Dragon-bone-grinding physician, heal thyself!

 

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 22:51 | 2308727 Nukular Freedum
Nukular Freedum's picture

I used to know Ferguson very well in our university days. He used to play his cards very close to his chest in those days, but not anymore. Now a blatant sell out to the neo-con/ NWO crowd. Sad, he used to write good books.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 23:06 | 2308762 fleur de lis
fleur de lis's picture

He wasn't playing his cards close to his chest. That presumes he knew how to play cards. He was a plant or a sleeper, etc., and was just waiting his turn for the Roths to assign him a post in their nomadic shadow empire. All he had to do was show up and keep his mouth shut.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 00:36 | 2308871 Nukular Freedum
Nukular Freedum's picture

Well I meant that I could never gauge his politics, but I suppose we didnt talk much about such things then, not directly. I used to think of him as a nihilist, indeed that was my secret nickname for him (nihil instead of niall) - which sort of plays into your idea of his being able to cut his cloth to suit his purpose. I think he was basically rightist even then though probably.
Just to say he was very helpful to me at uni, always a gentleman. But I do not agree with his current stance on many things.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 23:16 | 2308778 rockraider3
rockraider3's picture

Print to oblivion, or the breaking point.  Then call a bank holiday and devalue the dollar, say 40%, or some nice number.  Now the debt can be serviced, again, a point we are well past now.  Then you see wage inflation because people can't afford to live on 40% less wages.  Once wages increase and are closer to equilibrium with the cost of living, albeit a lower cost of living than we have in the US now, then you see interest rates skyrocket to fight inflation and keep it in it's tracks. 

I don't really see where deflation comes into play.  Maybe specific assets, or for short periods of time inbetween the Fed's easing programs.  Don't fight the Fed.  There will be no significant deflation.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 08:36 | 2309207 heinrich6666
heinrich6666's picture

Some of the 'cycles' he presents are not really cycles at all, but series of stages.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 09:07 | 2309274 heinrich6666
heinrich6666's picture

Paul Ryan? Not Ron Paul?

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 11:42 | 2334621 whiskeyjim
whiskeyjim's picture

Point 3: Fear of hyperinflation

The Fed has been appropriating the people's benefits of supply side deflation ever since they closed the gold window. Sooner or later, printing or not, regulation or not, that reduction will take place.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 09:46 | 2467001 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Point Three:  Fear of hyperinflation

Also Ferguson says 'if they print money people will simply bank it'

True, BUT this is EXACTLY what happened in Germany.

The central bank printed, people banked it and NO Hyperinflation occured....UNTIL...the economy started to get better....THEN as confidence improved people started to spend and THEN Hyperinflation occured.

 

So although most Professors know alot, they can't know everything....just look at Krugman...who as Ferguson says....should get back to talking about trade and stay out of fiscal policy, as my dog clearly knows more

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