Guest Post: Precious Metal Pullbacks in Perspective

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Fri, 12/09/2011 - 20:39 | 1964909 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Also looks like a good time to arbitrage the Gold/Platinum ratio...

 Oops, almost forgot:  "Bitchez!"

 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 20:59 | 1965000 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

But he didn't forget Bitchez!

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 21:03 | 1965009 johnu78
johnu78's picture

Buy silver, it's on sale now!!!

 

-John
http://www.youtube.com/carmarketer

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 21:34 | 1965078 trav7777
trav7777's picture

yes, GET RICH QUICK with SILVER!!!!!111

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 21:46 | 1965106 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

you are just mad because you missed the bus..........

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 22:24 | 1965201 AldousHuxley
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I can't say whether gold is going to rise or fall....but I can say this

 

Chinese may not accept dollars, but they will accept gold.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 22:36 | 1965230 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Just tell me this . . .

 

When does silver hit $50/ounce.?

 

How long until that?

 

Date & Time would be most appreciated . . .

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 22:54 | 1965277 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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March 21st, 2012

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 23:12 | 1965311 myne
myne's picture

Touche.

For anyone who doesn't know the signifcance, it's the date that many wars are started.

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 01:18 | 1965490 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

It's the Spring Equinox for heavens sake, literally. Sacrifice, the earth demands sacrifice. Fresh blood, into her so we get food back.

Imagine, they are still playing blood rituals, only it's not High Priests and "Off with his head", it's bombs away!

How would you like your Shekinah?

Shokenah!

Shock n Awe!

ORI

/the-plan/

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 01:40 | 1965507 strannick
strannick's picture

Au contraire. We can expect $60 or $100 silver by years end because, the factors that have caused silver's rise to the present exist and are extenuated 100 fold as....

1. Money is dying

2. LBMA and COMEX silver manipulation is dying

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 09:22 | 1965820 bernorange
bernorange's picture

Alf Field gave a keynote address to the Sydney Gold Symposium where he explained the Elliott Wave pattern mentioned above in the OP:

http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/11/14/keynote-speech-at-sydney-gold-symposium-14-15-november-2011-by-alf-field/

BTFD.

www.pmbug.com

 

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 01:47 | 1965513 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Your posts remind me of the guy who wrote the content on the sides of those castille soap bottles you can buy at the grocery store.

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 02:44 | 1965554 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Difficult to read but loaded with import?

I'll take that as a compliment! ;-)

ORI

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 05:21 | 1965668 terryfuckwit
terryfuckwit's picture

11:45 am precisely

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 06:02 | 1965695 loftgroovv
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The date of the next British budget.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 22:58 | 1965284 Stuck on Zero
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February 1980.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 22:59 | 1965288 americanspirit
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24 hours after the Israelis hit Iran

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 17:19 | 1966600 Boop
Boop's picture

24 seconds, I think you meant.  Fixed it for you.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 23:39 | 1965358 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

Sorry, not buying their shit with good gold. They get fiat and that's it. 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 21:51 | 1965121 nmewn
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lol...that would be an interesting article trav.

An article on, how many have gone bankrupt holding physical paper vs holding physical silver ;-)

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 22:55 | 1965278 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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I did.

I sold all of my stocks, bonds, MF, and I put it all on silver and gold a few years ago, and now I am bankrupt, hungry, and lonely, because no one will accept my silver and gold at the bar.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 22:59 | 1965287 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

I'll pay spot.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 23:06 | 1965300 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Sorry, I would rather wait it out.  Someone will eventual take my silver for food.  In the mean time I guess I will just let it appreciate.

Funny how silver is trading 1:1 with equity right now.  It's as if the Algo machines can only make bids when real goods appreciate.  I wonder why....

Maybe the PWG will buy me a drink after all

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 22:47 | 1965264 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Trav would rather ignore history and immutable laws of economics and go with his "gut", which is to do the exact opposite of whatever I do because I pissed him off.

lulz, good luck with that investment thesis.

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 16:11 | 1966488 trav7777
trav7777's picture

dude, people like you have cost a lot of people a lot of money with your shameless pumping.  Right at the height of your manic cheerleading, silver crashed almost 50% in price.

The physical did not disconnect from the paper; it is still widely-available, in quantity, for right around the spot price.

Nothing you predicted as imminent came true.  In fact, the opposite happens.  Perhaps you need to accept that you are the equivalent of a chicken little and are actually a MASSIVE FADE.

People who've gotten rich off silver have done so by fading people like you, cliff.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 20:32 | 1964910 Matt1973
Matt1973's picture

Have to admit that this silver correction has been a religious experience

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 21:35 | 1965082 trav7777
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it sort of has been like watching religious whackjobs make predictions that failed and then said whackjobs continued to cling to their religion.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 22:34 | 1965227 AldousHuxley
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that's why all rewards are in afterlife so that you don't come back to tell the truth.

 

http://www.demotivationalposters.org/image/demotivational-poster/0912/di...

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 22:38 | 1965237 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Well, Trav777 IS an idiot so . . . .

 

 

Responding to him is like licking Pavlov's Dog!

 

Kinda disgusting.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 22:48 | 1965267 tmosley
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Yeah, because silver ain't dun shit since 2008!

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 22:57 | 1965283 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Trav's bug out bag full of rubles on the other hand....

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 23:37 | 1965357 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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To whomever junked me,

wanna fight?

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 15:16 | 1966392 prole
prole's picture

Mr. Travis you're suffering from a mild delusion.

"it sort of has been like watching religious whackjobs make predictions that failed and then said whackjobs continued to cling to their religion."

Predictions that failed? Are you losing contact with reality? Show me the pm holder who got wiped out by holding PMs in the last 2,000 years that you can think of (Hunt excluded he was a paper ponzi speculator too)

Since 1913 the FRN has lost 97?% of its value.

How has a "religious wackjob" PM holder done who held his PM from 1913 until now? 1813? Pick any frikking date?

What prediction failed? You are sounding shrill and nonsensical.

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 16:13 | 1966495 trav7777
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oh, gotcha.  I just need to hold silver for 2000 years to get rich like the pumpers promised.  Or do I have to hold for 100 years?

I don't think there's anybody still alive who's been holding PMs since 1813, idiot.  Really, you need to re-read what you type before posting, unless it is your intent to sound stupid.

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 19:43 | 1966828 prole
prole's picture

Well I see you are really good at the insults but you offer no defense of your deluded original post?

I ask again who is the wackjob here?

If you don't want to go back 2000 years or 100 years how about to 1923? 33? 43? 53? 63? 73? 83? 93? (83 and 93 had to ride down a dip here) 2003?

I guess you will just ignore me or insult me more, seeing as how your original (idiotic) post to which I responded is indefensible.

Oh wait---- "get rich like the pumpers promised" I didn't notice that! you're creating a straw man~~ Sorry I didn't notice that I thought we were talking about the sound financial strategy of holding metals. 

Sorry to interrupt that straw-man creation of yours, carry on!

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 23:01 | 1965291 americanspirit
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Only if you didn't buy your silver below $10 which, had you been paying attention, you would have.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 20:35 | 1964925 Hmm...
Hmm...'s picture

I bought gold 2 days ago at $1730+ and also like $66 over spot.

although I believe that Gold may have medium to long term reasons for ownership, I continue to be concerned by the fact that Gold is tracking equities very closely since around Labor Day.

also, it goes without saying that "past performance is no guarantee of future results".   These charts look much like the RE charts did from 2000 to 2007... 

all that said, fundamental analysis would indicate that gold has a good chance of doing well, at least in nominal terms, due to future likely printing by central banks.

it's a big risk, but Gold has a place in a diversified portfolio IMO.

despite that, it sucks that my 20 oz of gold I bought 2 days ago is down like 20 bucks an ounce.  :(

I'm not worried... I just feel like I'm gifted at buying in at tops.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 20:42 | 1964944 Fukushima Sam
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Hold it and forget it until you really need it.  You will know when.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 20:47 | 1964961 Hmm...
Hmm...'s picture

I know... that's why I bought the stuff in the first place.

Unlike others here, I'm not trying to make a killing.  I'm just trying to tread water and protect some of my assets.

I'm a frugal guy, and I'm a cautious guy.  this type of environment is hell on my nerves.  I've bought gold twice thie year.  Once was over labor day weekend.  once was 2 days ago.  (the other Gold I bought was years ago). Will it pay off or at least be protective going forward, yeah I think so.

but it sucks seeing how hostage I am to the TBTF banks and their machinations.  I just really really wish that gold wasn't tracking equities so closely since September.  I do thinik it'll break ranks at some point... but I'm nervous.

 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 21:21 | 1965052 Dr Bob
Dr Bob's picture

im right there with you.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 21:27 | 1965066 fellatio is not...
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Hey Frugal Guy, think outside the box, if your gold is tracking the market (dow or  S&P) and you aren't going to trade the gold, than buy PUTS on the market.  So if both rise your metals rise, if they drop in tandem you will lose on your metals, which you're not selling anyway but will make $$$ on the equity puts to offset the "paper" loss in the other.  Hedge with another asset class.  Hope that helps.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 21:29 | 1965069 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Why is it "hell on your nerves"?  It would be hell on my nerves if I didn't have any.  Couple things to consider.

1. If gold goes down, your stack is still the same size.  Also, other commodities will go down as well.  Gas will go down, and so will food.  So your purchasing power hasnt really changed.  Ya, if you had stayed in cash you could buy more of these items or spend less cash.  But, once again, you still have a stack.

2. If you aren't all "in" in gold, then spend your fiat on day to day activities just like always.  Think of it as a savings account.  You have it.  If the SHTF, will you be able to get your money out of the bank?  Out of your 401K?  Keep some cash at home too.  Why let the banks sit on it and make .001% interest?  Once the SHTF its too late to start stacking or getting your money out of the bank.  Its like waiting until the Hurricane hits before going to the grocery store.  By then its going to be closed.

3.  If and when the SHTF, you won't be able to say, gee, I should really get some gold or silver now.  There won't be any to be found.  Same goes for food.  By the time you realize you need it, the grocery store will be stripped bare.  You need to plan ahead.   That means procuring those things now. 

At least you have a position.  If gold goes down, buy some more.  Im hoping big time for another correction.  Take it down to $1500, ill buy more.  If it goes to $1200 I'll buy more still.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 22:41 | 1965244 Crisismode
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If you think gold is going to $1500.

 

or $1200.

 

you are totally delusional.

 

Best of luck buying at those price points!

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 00:38 | 1965436 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Not thinking it will. But if it does, the truck is ready to be backed up.

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 11:12 | 1965949 Raynja
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you might want to go look at the first chart in this article again, it is making a strong argument that there will be about a 25% correction as the market tanks. that would put the price of an oz in the 1200-1400$ range.  After that gold will take off in a way that has not been seen in a long time (if ever), but there is a major 'correction' still looming in the near future.

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 16:14 | 1966497 trav7777
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I am really expecting more whipsaw consolidation.  After big moves, gold typically does nothing for 6 months to a year.

Sat, 12/10/2011 - 21:18 | 1966937 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Lemme try my hand at this and see if it will post up...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD

Nope didn't show.

There is a massive wedge formation with the bottom end of the wedge sitting on top of support at the 50DMA...along with a rising 200. Now, if you follow such things as a trader, even out of curiosity, this can't be good for shorts.

When it happens...it will be massive. But it looks like a spike (in fiat price) is coming just to clear it if nothing else. It (the price) is not just going to languish there.

 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 23:05 | 1965299 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Can you ignore the shills who are paid to panic you? If yes then just sit tight and turn off the TV. And spend more time enjoying life with family and friends. Your gold will take care of itself, and you.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 23:46 | 1965364 Silver Bully
Silver Bully's picture

' I just really really wish that gold wasn't tracking equities so closely since September.  I do thinik it'll break ranks at some point... but I'm nervous.'

Equities and PM's are simply waiting on money printing, at the same point in time. Everyone is banking on Bernanke to print, and he will. But the Fed's last ace is WHEN. Until then, BTFD and be patient. This is my first time too waiting for PM's the pull through a correction ( I wasn't in them back in '08), but I know enough to keep my powder dry. And wait.

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