Guest Post: Regulators Are Encouraging Banks To Game Risk Models

Tyler Durden's picture

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GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Banks are in the business of hiding risk' paraphrasing Taleb. Too true. Starts at the top.

Hard1's picture

Boy!, these days is so much cheaper to tweak the risk model than to issue equity.   (Bank CRO that asked us to remain anonymous).

 

After all the models already weigh Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and France as "risk free assets" and a capital cushion of 2% of face value is required for Greek bonds trading at 35 cents.

Yalperson's picture

Correction: The Financial Alchemy article mentioned is by Bloomberg News, not Reuters.

The Axe's picture

Same old story..if cental banker has your back it doesn't fucking matter.. BAC sold its China stake at a 10% discount, yet neither stock goes down....???

hambone's picture

dollar strengthening, Euro weakening...and this results in a US rally in the face of massive risk??? 

Anybody want to offer under what circumstances this would make sense?

Oil up, gold up...is this the precursor of a total disconnect from ES and Eur/dol pair?  Simply stated, nothing matters any more but printing.  This has the wiff of the onset of hyperinflation...

alien-IQ's picture

"Have you ever stood and stared at
it? Marveled at its
beauty. Its genius. Billions of
people just living out their
lives... oblivious."

Agent Smith

Eally Ucked's picture

The only question is who are they gaming? It must be soverign interests because I don't see too much public interests in it. Is it financial war, who is smarter wins? Brain wars? 

alien-IQ's picture

Fraud is bullish. Didn't you already know that?

El Viejo's picture

Banks have no risk.

Gromit's picture

It's not productive to ask a bank to countenance its own demise.

It's just an association of individuals conspiring to use someone else's money to generate accounting profits which can be distributed in cash as bonuses.

I remember years ago as a retail stockbroker clients would bring in old worthless stock certificates and ask to speak to an official at the company before they would be convinced.

When it's gone it's gone. But no-one will acknowledge this before the fact. After the fact there is no-one to answer the phone.

 

ebworthen's picture

They are gaming a 9% core-capital-to-risk?

*cough*

Oh sure, those European banks are just fine...

Nothing To See Here's picture

Why would banks refuse to take risks if they know they are going to be bailed out with public funds? They knew it before 2008 and they were proven right. Nothing changed so far, if only that they now know that the system is ever more dependent on governments implicitly guaranteeing debts.

--End The Fed--

catch edge ghost's picture

It's the Depends economy. Thick absorbent diapers to contain the mess, but they never take off the dirty one.

topcallingtroll's picture

I dont see how anybody, no matter how bullish, can have any faith in bank regulation anymore.

My bullish view relies on most people being so stupid that they cant comprehend this, much less get concerned with it.

The rest of us know it might be an issue someday, but we gotta make money.

willien1derland's picture

The only inference I can interpret from the recent word storms by MSM et al is that the loss profile within the banking system must be PROFOUND; a magnitude which very few have the ability to grasp...Politically it is impossible to address as there is no measure of austerity that could be implemented to offset the loss - That is why governments continue to institute cyclical Keysian solutions; they fail because the diagnosis is wrong...the issues are STRUCTURAL & their magnitude is so great that NO ONE in any position of responsibility is willing to address them materially. By virtue of the trend & choices being taken there will be another catastrophic event that will occur simply by virtue of no constraints to the banksters therefore it is a race to the bottom - negative real interest rates for the EU - an inflated Euro - Negative Real Interest Rates in the US - an inflating USD - Negative Real Interest Rates in Japan - A depreciating Yen...question is when all develop nations take the same tactic at the same time who is the contra-party?

GoldenTool's picture

Gold and oil...

 

Do unto others

AldoHux_IV's picture

That's bank logic for you: you're damned either way in trying to prevent us from blowing up the real economy.

Downtoolong's picture

So much Blue Smoke you can't even see the Mirrors until you run face first into one.