Guest Post: Risk Ratio Turns Up - We've Seen This Before

Tyler Durden's picture

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knukles's picture

They said i was all fixed, Goddamnit!

LeonardoFibonacci's picture

Let me see. Global financial system about to break down, China looking at a hard landing, EU Euro on the verge of fracturing, US economy scraping the bottom of the pool, US about to implode if Europe crashes, prospects of printing USD galore.....and some say....sell your gold and silver??
One thing is certain - nobody knows how this is going to end up, but it wont be good.
This is one gun fight I won't be taking a knife to.

philipat's picture

All those things you mention. Nothing to see there. Move along.

Nobody special's picture

I think you misheard. The instruction was to sell your GLD and SLV. Sell them for real in-your-hand hard currency. <wink>

ThrivingAdmistCollapse's picture

I agree, nobody should be thinking of selling their gold and silver right now.  The entire global economy can collapse at any time, if it implodes precious metals might be the only thing that can help your family.

Crisismode's picture

The 60 Minutes just aired was a complete MSM whitewash of that geriatric scumbag Warren Buffet.


Wonder what he paid for the publicity stunt?

Total and completly utter bullshit, promoing his ugly, fat stupid spawn son as the Chairman-To-Be.

Utter, complete bollocks.

oogs66's picture

what he was paid?  he is a government employee :)

phungus_mungus's picture

History always repeats itself... 

apberusdisvet's picture

Who the fuck is in the market now except for brokerages, institutions and funds.  Control your own money bitches, MFG is just the canary chirping infinite wisdom.

fonzanoon's picture

Everyone's retirement funds are in the market. Who is in the market now? Everyone, thats who. Should there be some alternative? Yes. Is there? No. Sure physical gold, but we are nut jobs right?

Buttertooth's picture

Oh it's fixed alright.

DormRoom's picture

hedgefunds, on average, don't produce any alpha [1], while injecting massive volatility into the system.  Why the fck would you want to enter now, weeks/months away from another massive volatility smile, which will break many VaR models.




The average joe got a mulligan after Lehman.  It's time to exit, and count your blessings. look @ the Shanghai Index.  Its recent declines may indicate heavy carry trade unwinds; a prelude to the end.

fonzanoon's picture

It may not be fixed. It may eventually fail. But the volume seems to be turned up lately that the sky is about to fall on this site. A huge crash would cleanse the system faster, but people should resign themselves that it may just be a slow bleed out.  It would suck, but life is a bitch right?


Nice raid on the PM's to start off the trading week. Yeah, that looks normal. 

Mike2756's picture

Not even messing with the pm's, got chewed up trying to figure which way they will go.

RobotTrader's picture

Yep, silver getting dumped, TPTB rubbing Sprott's nose in the dirt right now.

Can't fight City Hall.

JohnG's picture

bullshit.  -.45?  robo, you've gone full retard.  check your meds.

AC_Doctor's picture

Hey Robodipshit,  Sprott hasn't got SEC approval to buy the metals yet you total retard.  Everytime silver drops a dollar it means that Sprott's 1.5 billion in cash takes more physical off the already illiquid silver inventories.  It is going to be fun as fuck to watch the shorts get "blowtorched" courtesy of Mr. Sprott, as he lines his pockets off the ignorance of others.

fonzanoon's picture

yup, for all this rehypothecating crap all over the place the average guy is watching the Giant game with no clue. That may be all it takes to keep the game going/

Matt's picture

Beer and Football. panem et circenses. I'm sure in some language it rhymes.

chump666's picture

Thats a good post.  Your dad sounds like a wise man.  Yes this doesn't feel 'right', hence you wouldn't go long in this trade.

AC_Doctor's picture

Liquidity is definately drying up even in the face of the recent US Fed Reserve/CB  led emergency dollar funding.  Shit is going to hit the fan soon.

mikejody's picture

I don't know how many times that we must say the same thing: the market doesn't read indicators, it reads headlines. The special MACD-Stochastic-Bull/Bear-Volume-reading-can't-fail indicator may cross the threshold telling us to short everything we have, and a headline coming out saying "Euro Deal Reached" and the market will enter a sustained uptrend that will wipe you out. Again, fundamental and technical analysis is worthless in a headline driven market. 

dvsteenk's picture

yet the half-life of most headline effects has been reduced to a few hours, a day or two at best - in my opinion markets are driven mostly by insider trades, HFT and CB interventions (all manipulations), and the headlines are merely endless post-hoc interpretations of "imminent" or current rallies. Think of chicken and egg cycles...

Caviar Emptor's picture

US market went up last week, cheering the fact that now we're not the only ones looking bad.

From 08-11, you could blame it all on America: the housing bubble, sub-prime debacle, securitized mortgages, excess bank leverage, Lehman-Bear-AIG-Merrill disasters, Wall Street frauds, and the mega-bailouts. 

But now after 4 years of non-stop 3 ring circus acts from the Fed, the spotlight is finally on someone else. The Euro crisis is giving the perfect pretext for the Fed, Wall Street and US banks to start acting smug again. We can start sermonizing about how much better our system is and how they'd be nothing without us. And we can also hope to use those arguments to lure some money away from some panicky investors. 

Georgesblog's picture

Nothing can feel "right". When the foundation is defective, the house will settle, or worse. If the ground turns into a mudslide, the house can be turned into kindling. The foundation of the markets is the fiat currencies, and the relationships among them. Today's markets are built on shifting sands and imaginary framework.

mikejody's picture

Just wait, Obama will fix it. He just needs another 4 years to "finish the job". After all, there are 250 million Americans who are still not on Food Stamps.

michaelsmith_9's picture

The USD Index continues to capture my attention, which could be the biggest market influence for 2012.  A big market move is likely to get started with the USD moving higher in the weeks ahead.  Interesting newsletter here with an intermarket analysis outlook for the week.

Caviar Emptor's picture

Everything will be done to make sure that it doesn't happen

slewie the pi-rat's picture

reminds me of that summer in New Hampshire in the early '80s:

"we're screwed down, here, for life, " BiCheZ! 

laserjock's picture

Trust our vaguely-defined proprietary indicator.

sleepingbeauty's picture

That tells us to buy, but doesn't feel right so we are saying to sell. Just because.

oogs66's picture

its a buy signal, right?

walküre's picture

Stop reading the tea leaves.

It will crash when you least expect it. Prepare for it nevertheless. Hindsight is 20/20.

ACP's picture the economy was fueled by innovation for 200 years, then the last 30 years by debt and now by monthly bailouts. I wonder what's next? Oh yeah, TILT.