NY Fed Head Of Banking Supervision, And Person Who Handed Over Billions In AIG Profits To Goldman, ResignsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2015 12:29 -0400
Just three questions here about Sarah Dahlgren's "resignation":
1. Why is she resigning now: is there a crackdown on just how corrupt the Goldman Sachs branch office at Liberty 33 truly is?
2. What will her salary at Goldman Sachs be once she joins the 200 West firm?
3. Which Goldman partner will replace her.
One of the biggest stories of the week has been the great German Bund route as everyone’s new favorite short has sold-off hard on what HSBC calls a “cascade of small events [which has] created a large splash in a structurally ever-thinner mkt, similar to UST flash crash of Oct. 15.” Amid the cacophony of explanations emanating from every credit and rates strategist on Wall Street, BNP is out with a simple suggestion: it’s all about the waxing and waning of supply.
"The Q1 US GDP data was a major disappointment to the market as business investment declined due to the intensifying US profits recession. Only the biggest inventory build in history stopped the economy subsiding into a recessionary quagmire. The US economy is struggling and the Fed will ultimately re-engage the QE spigot. Talk is growing that China will soon be doing the same as local authorities struggle to issue debt. But this week we want to focus on Japan, having just made my fist visit to that fine nation for over a decade! Japan, the third largest economy in the world, is also in trouble (see chart below) and will soon be increasing its off-the-scale QE programme to an out-of-this-world QE programme." - Albert Edwards
Apple is the Ty Cobb of corporate America. Like Cobb, Apple has set some impressive records. Nine years, a trillion dollars in sales, and almost no taxes paid. Apple risks having a legacy of tainted success and isolation.
Suddenly, and with no catalyst whatsoever, "someone" decided to sell JPY, buy EUR and USD and aggressively bid for US equities and European peripheral bonds... just as they headed for an ugly day... Paging GPIF?
The world oil market is undergoing a fundamental structural change in response to expensive oil. Producers are trying to survive by limiting expenditures. While analysts have been focused on rig counts, deferred completions have emerged as the initial path to lower U.S. oil production. This unanticipated outcome suggests that others may follow. While everyone is waiting for higher oil prices and for things to return to normal, what we may be witnessing is the end of normal.
George Soros may owe some $6.7 billion in taxes Bloomberg says, noting that despite the billionaire's call to increase taxes on the wealthy, his fund has employed a loophole that allowed for the deferral of taxes on management fees the reinvestment of which has generated billions in returns.
The current equities bull run seems unstoppable. No amount of geopolitical concerns, Greek default fears, rate hikes, US dollar strength, crude oil price volatility, Russian sanctions or whatever else you can think of can put a dent on it. Perhaps we should take a step back and try to understand what is driving this strength. OK, we know that central banks continue to spike the punchbowl, but what is the actual transmission mechanism that directs all this liquidity into equities – as opposed to commodities for instance, which continue to struggle?
"I felt a great disturbance in the Farce, as if millions of fast-money voices suddenly cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened."
Following ISM Milwaukee's major miss this morning (and income and spending data weakness), and 2 months of significant misses, Chicago PMI printed 52.3 (handily beating expectations of a bounce to 50.0). Employment rose at a faster pace in April but Prices Paid tumbled at a faster pace.
Greece "Scrambles"To Make Full Monthly Pension Payments: "Still Missing Several Hundred Million Euros"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2015 08:48 -0400
Greece was forced to delay pension payments by 8 hours on Tuesday while Athens scrambled to find cash. Although the government claims there was a "technical glitch," officials with knowledge of the matter offered a far more elegant explanation: there wasn't enough money.
Because what really matters is not spending or incomes for the average American (which both missed dismally), the market appears convinced that the 2nd lowest jobless claims print in history is what matters and the "rate hike is coming" trade is on. Bond yields are higher, dollar is jumping, and gold (and silver) and dumping...
The myth of the resurgent US consumer, who was somehow supposed to benefit massively from the "unambiguously good" plunge in oil and gas prices, has been gutted and eviscerated, with the latest confirmation coming from the Personal Income and Spending data, in which we find that not only did personal income not grow in March, with wage growth the lowest in 2015 (with manufacturing workers' incomes coming flat and Trade and Transportation wages actually down), but because spending rose by a weaker than expected 0.4% in March, the 4th miss in the past 5 months, US personal savings have resumed declining and all those "gas savings" are finally being spent: just not where they should be spent, and not in the amounts hoped.