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Guest Post: Should I Buy Gold At Its All-Time High?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man

Should I buy gold at its all-time high?

There’s one question that I’ve been seeing over and over for the last several weeks as the price of gold has taken out its all-time highs and continued a nearly uninterrupted ascent: Should I buy gold now?

It’s understandable, especially for people who don’t own precious metals yet. Nobody wants to be the sucker who buys gold at the top, only to watch it crater back to $1200 or below. But here’s some food for thought–

The US dollar is shattering historic lows against currencies like the Swiss franc, Australian dollar, and Singapore dollar. Any currency that isn’t a complete disaster is now being viewed as a safe haven. And the mainstream world is now, finally, waking up to the reality that the United States might actually default.

Never mind that the government has been insolvent for years and the evidence of such has been widely available to anyone willing to look at basic facts. Literally, only in the last week have people finally began to consider the possibility of a US default.

Here in Europe, the situation is arguably even worse.  No one is being shy about a default in Greece– it’s discussed openly now by policymakers, and major financial institutions are preparing for a restructuring. And with its public debt more than 120% of GDP, Italy will not be far behind.

Governments no longer have the benefit of operating behind a curtain; their financial imprudence and technical insolvencies are now under the spotlight for all to see… and confidence is fading quickly.

The more people lose confidence in the dollar and euro, the more they look for alternatives. Large institutions and money mangers collectively control trillions of dollars within the financial system. Unallocated capital– funds held as cash and not being actively invested at the moment– must be held somehow, somewhere.

This is the chief reason why so many smaller currencies are surging. Compared to the dollar and euro, the Swiss franc looks incredibly safe, and money managers have a much higher degree of confidence that their Swiss bonds will be repaid than they have in the US or eurozone.

The more capital flows into these smaller currencies, the more they’ll appreciate against the dollar and euro. It’s simple matter of supply and demand– increased demand for the Swiss franc coupled with excess supply of US dollars means a stronger franc in US dollar terms.

Ultimately, this is the primary reason for gold to go higher in the long term.

Large financial institutions are increasingly looking at gold as a safe haven; it’s becoming less of a speculation and more of a store of value… and unlike most of the other available asset classes, precious metals are not politically sensitive.

Even stronger currencies like the Swiss franc have limits to their appreciation. At some point, the Swiss National Bank will impose capital controls to thwart the rise of its currency. Oil and agricultural commodity prices will likely be regulated and speculation outlawed if prices become too high.

But if gold goes to $2,000… $3,000… it may be an embarrassment to central banks, but it won’t become a populist issue.  You won’t see any Tunisian merchants setting themselves ablaze because the price of gold is too high… and not too many politicians looking to fix the price.

Even if they do try to regulate gold prices or even make it illegal, you can be sure that the gold trade will continue to thrive in the rest of the world– especially in Asia and the Middle East.

So instead of worrying about buying gold at its all time high, ask yourself another question instead: Over the next few years, do you expect that these broken, bankrupt governments will inspire confidence among institutional investors, or do you think that confidence will continue to erode?

If you’re leaning towards the latter, you can be sure that more money will flow into gold, and that prices will rise.

Yes, there will be price fluctuations. Whenever the US government announces that it has finally reached a debt deal, there will probably be a correction. Given what’s coming in the next several months and years– debt downgrades, more budget battles, government shutdowns, asset seizures, etc., any correction will be a small blip along a long-term rising trend line.

And in case you’re still worried that you’d be a sucker to buy gold at $1600, consider that, if you don’t, in three years you’ll probably feel like a sucker for not buying gold at $1600 when you still had the chance.

 

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Wed, 07/27/2011 - 14:27 | 1498688 redpill
redpill's picture

If you don't have a family or a lot of ties keeping you here, I'd say think about getting out of dodge to somewhere that has a growing economy that needs qualified people with your skillset.  I hear Chile is nice this time of year.  Grab a copy of Rosetta Stone Spanish to listen to on the plane.

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:02 | 1498829 Chump
Chump's picture

If I didn't have a family I would seriously consider it, and I'm fluent in Spanish (and French) to boot.  But, I am responsible to a wife and young boy.  On the other hand, if I didn't have a family I likely would've already spent that 5K on booze and smoke trying to grasp the nature of our unnatural unreality...

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 16:12 | 1499110 sgorem
sgorem's picture

WWW.APMEX.COM. Buy 1 and 5 gram Pamp Suisse, Credit Suisse GOLD ingots/bars/wafers. Buy some junk Silver American coinage in rolls. Preferrably quarters, fifty cent pieces(NO PROOFS). Wait for a little correction and place your order. send 'em a check (a little discount), or charge the hell out of your credit card. I'm fairly well off now but I've chosen to max out ONE credit card in gold and silver. I'm winning the game by paying with shit(FRN's), low interest rate, and my purchase is going sky high and higher. Whatever you do, do it sooner than later. BTW, save a little of those worthless fiats for your smoke and booze. Good luck dude.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 16:50 | 1499252 European American
European American's picture

Or maybe not any destination, in particular. Just cruise mode. Not necessarily an unwise investment for ones dollar/gold.

http://www.nautorswan.com/SwanPhotoGalary/tabid/251/phid/525/boatId/3/bo...

 

Stay away from the masses and obstacles in route.

http://www.adn.com/2011/04/01/1787988/ocean-may-deliver-broken-reminder....

 

Maybe avoid the Malacca Straits, the wates of the Red Sea, Nigeria, Guyana, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, South China sea, Iraq, Ecuador, Cuba, and the Northeast Coast of South America, where pirates are a known commodity.

 

May not seem like a lot of places left, but the ocean is big, very BIG.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:28 | 1498903 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

The premium is too high on small denominations of gold to make it worth your while.

Silver seems like a good idea and you don't have to drop your wad on it all at once.  Peruse ebay for some spot or below spot deals.

Spend the day with your family going to garage sales and tag sales and see if you can find some gold and silver jewelry or items (ash trays, candle sticks, sterling silverware, flasks, etc.) on the cheap.  That kills two birds, entertaining the wife and kid and buying PMs.

If you buy over time you'll have the cash and be proactive at aquiring more PMs.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:51 | 1499020 Chump
Chump's picture

Many thanks.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:03 | 1499130 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Temporalist and Chump.

I am waiting for a bid buyer to finish his 30 coin buy offer at 43.00 (The same price I started my 2000 dollar ASE 1 ounce coin...) Obviously I am a small time 48 or so coin holder in ASE. The other problem is a gigantic 25000 buy order at 42.20 which I would like to see go away by another Whale with a large amount of money. OR Physical Control of about 585 ASE Coins (A monster box is 500 ASE Sealed Crate worth about 22,000 give or take a 1000 today.)

The problem is I am a seller now, waiting for a 10000 ASE Shark at 43.60 and a tiny 40 ASE remora parasite at 43,59 to clear out so I can sell into the Buyers at 44.00 and up. They are selling coins in 2's 4's and so on. I can go right up the ladder at a profit minus fees and buy. I suspect I will end up with a bit over 52 ASE for 44-46 dollars each and be able to start eating the Seller's Bid 25000 coin stash at 42.20.

Remember BID = "I want to buy a ASE for this much" "ASK" = "I want to sell you this ASE for this much"

The problem with the Buyer's 25000 order (Bid side) is that there are about 100 sellers from 41.80 all the way down again in small coin quaniities.

Do you see where I am? I want to buy straight down the Bid Ladder like a shark gorging on ASE's to sell.

Remember, Buy low and sell high. I will give you a secret.... 50 ASE for 2000 dollars at 43.00 will give you roughly a 1.85 spread you need to meet if you sell any ASE. That means buying 50 ASE at 43.00 and then selling AT NO LESS than 44.85

 

It is bad for buyers who come in at the top when no one is wanting to "BID" It is a oppertunity for the Seller who HAS ASE to work down the list of BIDS buying as they go as long the spread is greater than 1.85

 

I have essentially discussed my stragety for today. All I am doing right now is sitting on my ass waiting for the truly rich Seller with 460000 dollars worth of ASE to clear and the buyer wanting to buy 25000 at 42.20 at god knows how much total cost.

Both of them are going to turn right around and use the money or coinage in possession to start working straight down both the BID and ASK ladders until the SILVER ASE is cleaned out. The Price plus Spot does not MATTER when you are busy accumulating coins.

 

 

One VERY VERY IMPORTANT THING.....

The 2000 dollars I have in the Metals Market is FOREVER SEPERATE from my regular family income/household expenses.... I NEVER. NEVER. NEVER invest or gamble with money I and my wife need to eat, buy gas and pay normal gas.

 

Now when you consider that Unemployeds as of yesterday on Fox being TOLD THAT THEY WILL NOT APPLY.... then the United States is definately headed for trouble these people are falling off the 99'ers pay gravy line and the food stamps are declining in monthly allotment as more join.

 

A little bit of thinking yeilded a stragety at which the 10000 and 25000 persons will result in a nice profit today if all goes well.

When this nation defaults... Paper money is for silly rabbits and Bullion bar, rounds or Coins are going to be KING.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:03 | 1499303 ping
ping's picture

Chump! Whatever you do: if you're buying PM jewellery at yard sales or whatever, buy a PM testing kit and accurate scales. $50 bucks. Learn the hallmarks and be really, really careful of plated jewellery. All in all, it can be tricky - even experienced dealers make mistakes.

Your safest bet for PMs is a reputable online or local dealer. I'm in Europe, but ZHers can throw you some good US options, I bet. The cheapest gold by weight, worldwide, tends to be older mixed alloy coins, typically 90% or so gold. You need to buy a few hundred to a few thousand dollars' worth to get the dealer to reduce their margins.

Buying's like cans of cola - buy more, you get a 'multi pack' discount...

Only my perspective, but I'd say: make one or two 'large' gold purchases (well, for regular Joes like us) - either a few 1 or 1/2 oz coins, or a big haul of much smaller ones like 1/16th oz Krugerands. You pay much lower margins then.

Silver's a dark horse. Not as 'reliable' as gold. More volatile. But some say it's worth having a small amount in case it skyrockets in price - which it might have done already, if the regulators didn't manipulate the markets to a pretty amazing extent. 1 oz silver coins are pretty ubiquitous and affordable. I buy one almost every week (but then I'm boringly predictable). (And in this case, I don't care so much about the margin - for me, long term buying evens out any price volatility in silver.)

If you want 'safe' bank notes, Norway, Sweden, Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland are amongst the best. (There are other good bets, too.) They actually turn out the way we were conned to believe bank compound interest increased our net savings when we were kids. Swop your greenbacks for Aussie dollars, and in a year's time you really will notice how many more USD they're worth.

Me? Being a poverty-stricken professional like you, I split my savings at a ratio of 2k gold/1k silver/1k foreign currency/1k my own national currency. If shit hits the fan, you can convert the foreign back into USD or anything else on most main streets, pretty much overnight.  

One thing: if you have a kid, have you thought about getting a year's supply of basic medicines? You can do that for $100 and throw in some pretty cool antibiotics etc. for the cost. Buy a $20 car power inverter for your cigarette lighter, and you can keep medicines cool in a refrigerator even if the mains power goes. (I bought one for $16 equivalent in a supermarket.) 

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:06 | 1499311 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Also get a Gram Scale and a set of very good Calipers to measure along with a magnet if that is to test.

 

A years supply of Narcotics is a no go. My doctor issues one to me (Controlled Substance according to the DEA which issued him the number when making a medicine decision for me to get well)

You are only limited to either 30, 60, 90 Pills with refills

That is the only legal way to acquire as you use them normally. Most states now tie pharmacy and doctors in real time so you will be tracked.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:16 | 1499368 ping
ping's picture

Really? Gosh. I picked up antibiotics etc. no problem on the web. Maybe it's the 12 months supply thing? Mind you, I use a site that lets you buy pretty much whatever volume you want. AFAIK, it's all legal - generic imports etc. Been using it for antihistamines, tamiflu, antifungals, all that stuff. I thought that was even more common in the states?

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:26 | 1499413 ping
ping's picture

Sheeee-it, that sounded like an advert. 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 18:04 | 1499577 AGuy
AGuy's picture

Pharmacies track prescription sales with Physician DEA numbers. There is a company the collects all drug sales from pharmacies and hospitals  that is used by Big Pharma to determine which locations they need to send more sales reps to to boost sales in that location. This information is sometimes used by law enforment, but rarely. Most of the time, its used by Big pharma during litiigation to show link the doctor as the culprite, not the pharma company. In most instances, Law inforcement will act if they thing they can make money, by procecuting and fining the offender.

Note, that stock piling drugs doesn't always work. Many drugs degrade over time, and some even become toxic. One example is Asprin which become toxic over time. If your aspirin has a light smell of vinagar, throw it away. Rarely are any long term studies done on prescription medicine. Pharma's have no interest in long term storage since they want consumers to purchase their drugs as offen as possible. The only studies that are done, are by the Military which stockpiles some drugs such as Cipro in case biological weapons are used. I suspect that some drugs have much longer shelf-lives than the expiration date, because of the desire by pharma to get consumers to purchase new drugs. However without the proper study done into longer term storage, there is a danager that the drug has lost its potency or has degraded into something toxic.

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 21:34 | 1500111 ping
ping's picture

Wow. I just buy the stuff no questions asked, all taxed and itemised at customs. God bless India. 99.9% of (legal!) drugs just lose potency over time. (Any cops reading this - I bought antibiotics, not crack.) The ones that don't - that degrade into something toxic - have it clearly labelled on their patient information sheets, or you can check with the online pharmacological references. Anyhow - who said anything about storing drugs past their shelf lives? Not me. 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:00 | 1499292 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Silver Eagles. Once and future coin of the realm.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 14:25 | 1498673 longhardbull
longhardbull's picture

My take for the last 5 years has been to keep buying as much as I can as often as I can. Why keep more than 1 month of fiat on hand?

I do not trust the dollar or anything else. i can always go down to the coin store and sell a couple if I had a need for a few bucks..

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 14:25 | 1498676 longhardbull
longhardbull's picture

My take for the last 5 years has been to keep buying as much as I can as often as I can. Why keep more than 1 month of fiat on hand?

I do not trust the dollar or anything else. i can always go down to the coin store and sell a couple if I had a need for a few bucks..

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 18:39 | 1499707 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"I can always go down to the coin store and sell a couple if I had a need for a few bucks.  Why keep more than 1 month of fiat on hand?"

 

Money changing fees. Dealers or Brokers charge commissions on all PM Transactions. Plus the new 1099 law  (next year) making all transactions over $500 per year to require a 1099 filing with the IRS. At some point the gov't make make gold (and silver) private ownership illegal again (as FDR did in 1933 in order to steal everyones gold). Why would the gov't want to take ownership of private PM collections? in order to import strategic goods (such as oil) if Oil becomes no longer traded for greenbacks, and the ME demands payment in PMs.

Also consider that there is a Federal 30% capital gains tax on PM sales Some states also have there own PM Capital gains tax to boot. The new 1099 law will make it difficult for PM sales. I suspect that the IRS will come after people who do sell the physical requesting you provide paper work of the original purchase price, otherwise the may try to hit you with a full 30% on sale value. Say for instance you bought 1 once at 1200 and sold at $2K, if you don't have the paper work that shows you purchased at $1200, they may force you to pay 30% of 2K  or  $600 (plus penatly fees since you allegedly misrepresented capital gains due).

Most likely you need to hold onto gold until after the Federal gov't collapses to avoid getting screwed over.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 21:09 | 1500066 c-rev with a twist
c-rev with a twist's picture

You may want to get out more.  The 1099 law was already repealed earlier this year.  "Sorry I ruined your black panther party."

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 14:28 | 1498694 Livingstrong
Livingstrong's picture

Love the new format. I have been gone for several weeks due to work, come back and find this wonderful comment format. Congrats!!!

People better get on the Gold and Silver train NOW, before it´s too late. Go long G and S!!! 

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 14:41 | 1498753 Camtender
Camtender's picture

 Marc Faber said it best recently,

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/7/25_Ma...

 

...I just calculated if we take an average gold price of say around $350 in the 1980’s and then we compare that to the average monetary base in the 1980’s, and to the average US government debt in the 1980’s...but if I compare this to the price of gold to these government debts and monetary base, then gold hasn’t gone up at all.  It’s gone actually against these monetary aggregates and against debt it has actually gone down.    So I could make the case that probably gold is today very inexpensive....

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:10 | 1498851 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

JFC!!!!!!!!! Please tell me what gold is going to do when FRN's burn and their is no other option in the real world to take a FRN's place? Not to mention that every other currency the world over will ignite as well. Mark my words, PM's at some stage of the game will be outlawed - this game is a lose - lose proposition.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:21 | 1498881 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Maybe you should end it all already then.  I like people with no fight in them and so does the .guv...easy prey.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:23 | 1498894 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

No... but please explain what a metal is going to do when 99.9% of the populace have never used, are not familiar with it, and don't know how to value it? FRN's the world over will burn if the dollar shits out - which means no goods, no service, no nothing. There simply is not enough "gold" to go around to make a viable alternative. So if you have nothing to buy, since nothing is being made, and everything is in flames around you, what good is "gold"?

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:48 | 1498994 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

There are examples you can look at that aren't the Post Apocalyptic end game you are envisioning.  See Argentina, Weimar, Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe...

And what kind of idiot doesn't know that gold and silver are worth something?  You are saying people don't know what jewelry is and don't understand weights and measures...like they don't know a 12oz soda is less than a 20oz soda?  It always struck me that poor people love to show off their jewelry more than wealthy people so they clearly get it.

And there is enough of anything at the right price you just get smaller amounts of it that is the biggest canard that don't quack.

Maybe whatever institution you are locked away in to protect the public from you should revoke your internet privileges.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 16:07 | 1499084 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

You simply are wrong. I have seen these things first hand. The examples you offer leave one important factor out - these countries were able to acquire goods from the black market via other western markets because the western countries were still producing something. Thus these items still had value and could be traded for gold or some semblance of currency exchange from gold/dollars/zimbabwe. If the US and other western countries rocket down in flames JiT shipping stops, massive unemployment, no production, etc. - this is not some apocalyptic end game but reality for failing fiat. Thus, these items will not be available and basics will become scarce (GLOBALLY) - a completely different scenario than just using the Zimbabwe factor. For currency to be utilized the basics of life have to be met first and foremost. Once the basics are met, then currency, as defined by the masses is generally used. Until this time, however, when things are in transition or items are scarce the ONLY transactions being conducted is that through barter or skill sets, thus even trades for TANGIBLE - USABLE - COMMODITIES.  

Jesus, people, think this through. You really think gold, in this type of event is going to win the day? Sadly mistaken - martial law will have set in long before however, and your gold becomes a moot point...

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:07 | 1499324 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

This has been explained to you before, but you seem unable to assimilate information.  Gold is not to provide for survival in case of a meltdown.  It is for holding wealth to exit the other side of the troubles.   One must make other provisions for surviving food/water/oil downsides.   Only when survival has been assured does one look to rebuilding with the preserved wealth in the form of precious metals.   Now, let's see if you can get it this time.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:47 | 1499513 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Hahahahahaha - you are so full of shit you stink. There will be no "exit side", at least not in our life time. WRONG AGAIN on this: "Only when survival has been assured does one look to rebuilding with the preserved wealth in the form of precious metals" - HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA - I needed a good laugh, I almost shit myself reading that. Get a clue.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:09 | 1499331 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Martial law will quickly become Civil War. = radical decentralization with local economies based on barter, with silver as central element.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:49 | 1499526 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Barter will be USABLE COMMODS not some metal that is looked at and google eyes made over. We are talking a society where goods are very scarce. Even then, this phase will be many years out...

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:12 | 1498862 hp12c
hp12c's picture

Back in the early '60's. when the U.S. still made real money (90%silver coin), you could buy a loaf of bread for a quarter.. Today, 50 years later,  that same silver coin is worth at least $7... The copper clad crap coin that replaced it is practally worthless....

Pm's are the only true store of wealth...

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:30 | 1498912 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

If FRN's burn the world over as this and every other article on PM's likes to spew, the LAST thing on your mind will be "store of wealth". By your own example you are showing how FRN's/fiat is going exponential. At some point it will be game over and because the US dollar is the world reserve, backing pretty much every other fiat, they will all burn at the same time. If you cannot get the simle things of life due to JiT shutting down, etc. what good is your PM's going to do? How will wealth preservation make a difference when you cannot get the basics of life?

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 16:23 | 1499157 sgorem
sgorem's picture

SIGN AT LOCAL GAS STATION: "PEOPLE WITH SILVER TO THE FRONT OF THE LINE".

TWO (2) MERCURY DIMES BOUGHT A GALLON OF GAS IN 1950. THOSE TWO (2) MERCURY DIMES STILL BUY A GALLON OF GAS NOW, AND YOU GET CHANGE.

I WOULD RATHER HAVE SOMETHING IN MY POSSESSION LIKE GOLD AND SILVER, ALONG WITH ENOUGH GUNS AND AMMO TO PROTECT MYSELF AND FAMILY, THAN NOT TO HAVE THEM.

"WHAT'S IN YOUR WALLET?"  priceless...........

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 16:36 | 1499186 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Except you put the cart before the horse. Like I said earlier, when FRN's burn there will be NO COMMODS available. So your gas station analogy is wrong - because no gas will exist, therefore no one with PM's to the front will be written on a sign. Not only that, but the repercussions of the social meltdown associated with that will make everyone and their brother (assuming the analogy is viable) who is in line a HUGE traget. Good luck driving home... oh and this isn't 1950.

Whats in my wallet? Knowing when to leave the populace center and living by the rule of "three"...

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:12 | 1499345 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You are not going to survive anyhow, so stop worrying about us.   One does not hold PMs alone, other stockpiles exist in addition to the precious metals.    Silver is for barter, gold is for holding.    Food stocks are for eating, guns are for protection of same.   No problems if you assume that PM buyers are buyers of other types of things as well.   Give it a rest.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:51 | 1499533 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Wrong again on the "not surviving part"... you must be in the wrong circle. "Give it a rest" - because you don't like being told you are wrong? Shit, I've seen the contingencies - you have no clue what is coming.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 21:37 | 1500115 destiny
destiny's picture

Well please Do explain what the contingencies are, since you have seen them....People will adapt to the situation just like they always have in the past, whatever the situation is today and will be tomorrow, that's called survival...as for PMs, as far as I am concerned, I gives me an orgasm to think that "they" won't get their hands on MY property, no matter what their fancy is (outlaw gold and so on)...not even on my dead body.  I don't care if I don t live long enough to dispose of my PMs nicely in a cosy place...but at least I'll have the satisfaction that these bastards can rot in freezing hell without a second round of gand screwing the People.  Fuck the contingencies ! 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 19:10 | 1499753 AGuy
AGuy's picture

Where is there a gas station that will take two physical silver dimes and allow you to buy gas with it at silvers intrinsic value? Every gas station I've been to, will only except payment at face value (20 cents) not their intrinsic value.

I tend to agree that when you can't buy gas with FRN, there won't be any gas available, since the huge tankers that bring to American shores will be going someplace else. Food will be a serious concern, since most farmers buy gas using FRNs and won't be able to plant and harvest crops without exchanging FRNS for diesel.

FWIW: I suspect that before Gas stations stop accepting FRNs, they will except state currencies. As the dollar tanks, States will be force to print their own currencies, or selected foriegn currencies will be accepted as payment (consider that FRNs and Euros are currently  accepted in Africa and Latin America). Over a period of time other currencies will gain strength as the dollar fades into non-existance. This might happen over months or years, depending on how fast confidence is lost.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:38 | 1498942 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Dup post

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:15 | 1498867 Prepared
Prepared's picture

Gold is such an end game guarantee - history ALWAYS repeats itself.  THE UNITED STATES of AMERICA is economically - totally, completely and without question > FUCKED BEYOND FUCK'DOM!!!  Would have never imagined the show would turn out like this, and to think it's only begun.  Fun!!

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:15 | 1498868 Prepared
Prepared's picture

Gold is such an end game guarantee - history ALWAYS repeats itself.  THE UNITED STATES of AMERICA is economically - totally, completely and without question > FUCKED BEYOND FUCK'DOM!!!  Would have never imagined the show would turn out like this, and to think it's only begun.  Fun!!

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:22 | 1498888 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

I just did (almost 10oz)...or I should say Eric Sprott just bought it for me last night as my proxy. Roth IRA ya know. If I gotta buy a paper claim to it then it may as well be him.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:34 | 1498931 pitterrier
pitterrier's picture

The question should be, "Should I sell all my gold at today's nearly record price and depend on bankers, politicians and the ruling elite to lead in an ethical, responsible and appropriate manner?"  Now, doesn't gold at $1614.60 look cheap?

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:36 | 1498948 Spigot
Spigot's picture

Most novice buyers WILL buy at the top, whether intermediate or final blow off top, and WILL suffer losses (whether temporary losses or real losses). That's just the nature of people and their emotions as it relates to speculative investments. Similarly most people who buy will also lose by not selling soon enough when the secular trend reverses. Its all part of the parting of the herd mentality with the herd money.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:39 | 1498960 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

I would wait till 2500 bucks. then you know the bull market is intact.

<sarc>

 

However, why in the world would you buy after a 100 dollar lift?

Then you would be able to sell at 1525. I get it.

 

Gold is a trade due to the specs long and short.Don't chase it.

It was insurance and now it's a rolling icon on CNBC screen with a MACD, Stochastic, and Williams%R

 

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:39 | 1498965 notadouche
notadouche's picture

As the folks at Casey have been saying for quite some time now.  It's no longer a question of how much you paid for gold but how much gold do you own.  The same pundits calling the top in gold now were the same one's calling the top at 800, then 1000, then 1200 and of course once a single gold ATM surfaced it was immediately sold as the top.  Of course the first ATM in dispencing currency was never seen as anything more than a technological breakthough.  I saw the gold ATM as validation, not perverse world gone crazy no way gold goes higher from here scenario.  That is of course just my humble ordinary man's opinion who fears he is woefully underinvested in physiclal gold.  

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 15:50 | 1499012 oldman
oldman's picture

GOLD BULLS!

This oldman will never buy gold!

 

unless------------------------------

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 16:04 | 1499065 eurusdog
eurusdog's picture

And....very unhelpful, uninsighful common sense info.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 16:12 | 1499112 windcatcher
windcatcher's picture

Now that you are all out of wind, here is something else that is Au, Ag related to consider.

 

One is that any sell over $600 in PM, by law, has to be declared. That is a plus for owning silver bullion.

 

Another thing, beware of outfits like Goldline and other unreputable dealers and their “Helena gold coin” scam, you will be paying way over face value, the price will have to double before you break even. They and others make millions off that scam.

 

Buy from a local coin dealer and pay less premium.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 20:02 | 1499943 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Dear sir, you are incorrect.  If you have the audacity to make a profit buying and selling precious metals, of course, big brother wants a piece of the action at capital gains tax rate. 

However, only the sales of certain precious metals in the quantities shown below will require your social security number or Federal Tax id and a 1099-B being sent to you by the dealer you sell to.  It has zero to do with the dollar amount.  The $600 rule you noted was in Obamacare, but thank God was rescinded. 

Here are trigger points for the requirement to receive a 1099-B from big brother.  You have to sell this amount within 24 hours.  Also, these are mutually exclusive, if you sell 24 Krugerrands and 24 Gold Maple leafs no 1099-B is required.

Trigger Point sales within 24 hours

25 one ounce gold krugerrands, 25 one ounce gold maple leafs, 32.15 ounces of gold bars,

25 once gold Mexican Libertads (Onzas)

$1000 face value 90%, 1000 ounces in silver bars

50 ounces in platinum bars

100 ounces in palladium bars

If not on this list, for example one ounce gold eagles item is exempt.

Also, typically you will pay a higher premium buying gold from a local dealer

than a large online company, but there are exceptions.

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 21:12 | 1500077 c-rev with a twist
c-rev with a twist's picture

Again, keep up with your reading.  The mind is a terrible thing to waste. The 1099 deal was repealed in march.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 14:42 | 1501806 windcatcher
windcatcher's picture

Thank You Tuco for plumbing me up. My last purchase was Ag at $ 20 per oz. I have learned something new today so now I am smarter than I was earlier. One must stay abreast of resent developments.

I was unable to find out how the class action law suit against Goldline turned out for “not acting in their trusted clients best interest”, it may still be in the legal system. The gold Swiss Franc scam is easy to detect, ask your local coin dealer what he will pay for one and the answer will be a small premium below spot price.

I may not buy the volume of Ag and Au as you do so I prefer to deal with local dealers on a touchey feeley, eye to eye basis. Again, thank you for correcting me on the 1099.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 16:20 | 1499133 GCT
GCT's picture

I bought a bunch of gold back when it was 300.00 still have alot of it today.  I have bought and sold physical gold for over 35 years and have profited from it.  I bought 12 ouces on a dip two weeks ago and sold it Friday.  Will jump back in when the time is right in my mind. 

I always question to gloom and doomer though.  If the USA has a total collapse and it is every man or woman for themselves how much will your PM's be worth.  I also own some farm land which is a better investment to me anyway.  You cannot eat fricking gold.  Ask yourself this.

If your hungry and I have a sack of potatoes what is worth more to you gold or food.  Oh yeah I am well armed hehe!

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 16:24 | 1499163 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Ding, Ding, Ding!!! We have a winner! Use the system to make your money in FRN's to buy the things that will get you down the road. Land, food, ammo, weapons, all purchased by FRN's, via selling PM's is the right outlook. If it is every man, woman, and child for themselves, PM's will not help you.

https://www.gunsgrubandgold.com/forum

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:15 | 1499365 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

What's with all the unnecessary graphics and broken links?   The site is nearly useless.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:58 | 1499556 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Must be your browser.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 16:36 | 1499189 sgorem
sgorem's picture

In my humble opinion, a man should have all of the above. Land, Gold/Silver, Guns, and food, and enough common sense to use them. No land? At least you'll be able to buy or shoot your way out on a full stomach.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 16:47 | 1499239 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Very true. The top of my list is common sense and knowledge, everything else follows suit - such as waepons, food, etc.

My pet peeve is these articles that push the PM agenda, yet from a logical perspective have no real thought layout.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 19:44 | 1499897 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

You should first store food and water and then worry about precious metals if you can afford them.  Of course, you cannot eat gold but only a dumb ass would buy only precious metals and have no food and water!  The purpose of gold is to get your assets through an inflation or deflation with your purchasing power in tact, not to buy potatoes!

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 14:44 | 1501813 windcatcher
windcatcher's picture

Thank You Tuco for plumbing me up. My last purchase was Ag at $ 20 per oz. I have learned something new today so now I am smarter than I was earlier. One must stay abreast of resent developments.

I was unable to find out how the class action law suit against Goldline turned out for “not acting in their trusted clients best interest”, it may still be in the legal system. The gold Swiss Franc scam is easy to detect, ask your local coin dealer what he will pay for one and the answer will be a small premium below spot price.

I may not buy the volume of Ag and Au as you do so I prefer to deal with local dealers on a touchey feeley, eye to eye basis. Again, thank you for correcting me on the 1099.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:12 | 1499348 UP4Liberty
UP4Liberty's picture

If one does not buy gold NOW - a time shall come in the not too distant future where one will rue the day he or she did not...

There will be a lot of violent swings in the gold price.

If you can handle volatility and can stand it pulling back - it is a wise investment.

I purchased my motherload in 2005 - and it has more than DOUBLED since then.

It will double again within the next 2 - 5 years. 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:32 | 1499448 wuzetka
wuzetka's picture

Can anyone explain why we should expect hyperinflation so soon if there is no working conduit between the excess liquidity and printed money and the real world economy? There is no wage pressures, the only way there can be inflation is when peaople start chasing to few goods with a lot of money. Goods are abundant and consumers are short of cash. I agree that down the road there will be inflation, but the excess liquidity needs to start circulating in the economy, right now it's only circulating among financial assets and commodities. I think gold is rising not on real inflation pressures but on perceived inflation pressures and fear of inflation, not inflation itself.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:39 | 1499486 Rynak
Rynak's picture

My supermarket says 20% inflation in recent years - but i guess, that is no real pressure.... after all, i could just eat ipads.

Phrased another way: What planet are you reporting from?

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:46 | 1499510 wuzetka
wuzetka's picture

My point is that this a level of price pressures that is still relatively easy to absorb by consumers, afterall, 20% in recent years and there is no revolt, dumping fiat currencies by the general public etc...You need wages or personal income to climb in order to have a self inforcing spiral that will lead to hyperinflation. As far as I know, recent rises in personal income are tax break/government transfer related - what will cause personal income to rise in nominal terms?

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 18:49 | 1499746 Rynak
Rynak's picture

One word: Stagflation.

I myself do not think that pure hyperinflation will happen - at least not for anything else but the "finish". I think that there will be an escalating oscilation between deflation caused by lack of buying power, and inflation caused by the gov trying to print it away.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:33 | 1499449 wuzetka
wuzetka's picture

.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:35 | 1499454 Rynak
Rynak's picture

I think most people - PM bashers as well as PM pushers - are treating the question the wrong way.

PM pushers will tend to say, that price doesn't matter, because it is a disaster-insurance... basically, 20% up or down is nothing compared to what may happen to fiat in the midterm.

What they miss, is that the shortterm price DOES matter, because if you can pick a good entry point, you can buy more. The "it's only ounces that count" is biting itself in the ass here: Yeah, well, but with a cheap entrypoint, i CAN GET MORE OUNCES!

PM bashers and especially newbies on the other hand, say that current prices do matter, because in the end, you want to exchange it for something else again (any kind of "money" is quite useless, if you cannot exchange it for something - worthless to be precise). So they look at spotprices after they bought something, and if they go down, they think "oh damn, i just lost money!".

What they however miss, is that:

A) In the current context, physical PMs aren't there to trade - they foremost aren't even there to make a profit - they are simply insurance against massive losses - so, damage control. For shortterm trades, fiat still works fine - i.e. there is no point in not using your current fiat wages for paying current living costs.

However, the question is what will happen to the capital which you do not need in the shortterm - so, savings. Even ignoring hyperinflation, how much did prices rise in the last 8 years? How much "loss" did your fiat savings make in that timespan? And: Wouldn't it have been better, if your savings had devaluated LESS? Notice the phrasing: I'm not talking about profit - just about reducing losses on longterm savings... so, conservation.

So, when you as a newbie ask yourself "should i buy PMs, now while they're up?": Well, that depends on how sure you are that there will be a better opportunity in the shortterm. In the longterm, having let's say 10% less ounces may be annoying, but it's still better than losing i.e. 30% of fiat-based savings, right?

So, your decision when to enter, should not be matter of if it will be longterm benefical - it will be anyways.... the decision about entrypoint, is just a question of "optimization", not of the overall point.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 17:51 | 1499530 wuzetka
wuzetka's picture

I agree that gold will help preserve your wealth but I think it will take years, not weeks. Remember also that gold is a kind of money that is very hard to use on a day to day basis. One should be more focused on such developments as paper currencies that might be backed by gold - now that would be a great investment

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 19:01 | 1499779 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

I think it's time to reward some accolades to Jim Sinclair (www.jsmindset.com). For at least the last ten years or maybe longer Jim has been an unwavering bull on gold. Ten years ago he called gold at 1650 US. Everyone dismissed him as a wingnut. Now he has been proven right. He kept me in my gold positions since 550 US. Now he is call for gold to go a lot higher. Hold on to your gold positions!

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 20:18 | 1499979 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Sinclair is the man.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 05:49 | 1500523 Dr Spooners Wil...
Dr Spooners Willing Banker's picture

What's the view on the proportion of your assets to go into PM's?

I'm at 10%, about 50/50 G & S. Just got a lump sum and wondering what to do with it.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 19:47 | 1499903 gwar5
gwar5's picture

.

 

We have a long way to go. It's just getting started.

Gold still has to get to $2300 to equal the 1980 high adjusted for inflation, and we're in worse shape now.

Gold will hit $3000 without even breaking a sweat.

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 00:31 | 1500331 GlenD
GlenD's picture

Better Question

Should you buy gold at this all time fiat low.

Response

Not if you think fiat will break tradition and actually bring more wealth in future years

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 00:32 | 1500334 GlenD
GlenD's picture

 

 

Better Question

Should you buy gold at this all time fiat low.

Response

Not if you think fiat will break tradition and actually bring more wealth in future years

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 11:15 | 1501174 Wipewithpaper
Wipewithpaper's picture

Average in and just keep buying.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 13:08 | 1501528 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

I still expect PM's to follow equities (down)

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 23:38 | 1593605 karmete
karmete's picture

Well done! Thank you very much for professional templates and community edition sesli siteler sesli sohbet

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