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Guest Post: SHTF In Austria Soon

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Toni Straka of The Prudent Investor

It Takes Only a 4% Adverse Move and Austria's Banks Are Out of Business

Austria's banks sat on a derivative hoard valued at €1,786 Trillion at the end of June 2011. The volume of off balance derivative items is €99 billion more than at the end of 2010 but €800 billion less than a year earlier.

This dwarfs cumulative core capital of the banking sector, which stood at €75 billion or roughly 1/23rd of outstanding derivatives. It will take only a little more than a 4% adverse move against the desperate bets of the banks in the Alpenrepublik and they will be wiped out, can be read from figures released by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) (German language only) on Wednesday and overlooked by all media so far.

The press release does not waste one word on the only trillion-figure that can be found in the economy of this 8-million small country. Austria's GDP rose 4.1% to €286 billion in 2010, according to official data.

Taking a clue from other affairs in Austria, where silence always means that something's boiling up, this figure serves well as a reminder that every Eurozone country has an explosive banking problem lingering in its backyard.

Already one year ago central bank governor Ewald Nowotny was not able to provide an ad hoc figure of the actual risk of these off balance items that are usually hidden away from prying eyes in undercapitalized bank subsidiaries. A year earlier the volume was €2.6 trillion. Industry insiders said at that point of time the actual risk after netting out short and long contracts may lie somewhere between 5% and 10% or €90 billion to €180 billion, based on the most recent data.

While the overall year-on-year reduction looks advantageous as banks reduced their risks, it makes one wonder what Austrian banks are betting on. This does not look as if they would hedge their risky East European lending activities and neither does it appear that Austrian banks are running book profits on the more profitable CDS contracts on PIIGS and other irrecoverable debts on the left side of their balance sheets.

Austria Will Soon Meet the Limelight of International Attention

Austria will soon meet the limelight of international attention again. On Thursday the ruling coalition tried to set a date for the necessary vote on change of Austria's constitution that would allow the Eurozone to proceed on the ill-fated way of Eurobond issuance. Due to the opposition from the Green Party and the two xenophobic parties FPÖ and BZÖ the vote did not reach the obligator 2/3 majority in the upper house.

The Green party had already issued a warning to the bank-controlled coalition in June, threatening to boycott a pro-Eurobond vote as long as Austria does not ensure that money lent to the PIIGS will be repaid absent the factor of pure hope.

The Greens got unexpected support from conservative hardliner and finance minister Maria Fekter. on Friday In an interview with Austrian press agency APA she said Austria will reject a top-up of the €780 billion European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). She also addressed US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and advised him to put his own house in order before handing out fiscal advice to the Eurozone.

Austria's coalition is getting shattered day after day by new scandals alleging corruption involving a string of partly state-owned companies like Telekom Austria, public railways, the purchase of 12 Eurofighter jets (only 2 are operable during daylight hours), alleged kickbacks in the privatization of the country's real estate holdings. Scandals have so far centered on the conservative ÖVP and their former xenophobic coalition partners. But since Thursday allegations about current social democrat chancellor Werner Faymann concerning advertising of public companies in preferred media begin to make bigger and bigger headlines.

It does not only look like this little beautiful country that would love to dance year round on the by now infamous opera ball, where the level of celebrities has degraded from Sophia Loren to Berlusconi's former Bunga Bunga chick in the last decade, Rubina, has problems.
Austria will see a system collapse that is still mistaken as a run-of-the-mill crisis by officials who are increasingly busy holding on to their seats and the comfortable state pensions that come with it. Expect a rapid development aka deterioration once denial mutates into hesitant acceptance of the fact that matters are going to change in a big way.


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Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:07 | 1677634 Mongo
Mongo's picture

Timing excelent since buying gold for more that €15.000 at any given point is prohibited from now on...

A newly enacted Gold policy in Austria that restricts the free purchase of gold by individuals may just be the start of a European policy shift that might border on infringing an individual’s financial freedom.

-As per the new Austrian policies, individuals who wish to purchase gold will be restricted to purchase only 15000 Euros worth of gold at a time making gold an officially “restricted” commodity.




Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:08 | 1677647 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

zero hedge on drudge

there go the servers


solyndra goldman sachs article

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:09 | 1677653 DirtMerchant
DirtMerchant's picture

and the neighborhood

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:19 | 1677699 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

and BAC.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:55 | 1678094 eisley79
eisley79's picture

people should realize thats a european comma, aka period, and 1.7 Trillion not 1.7 Quadrillion :)


But great reporting, just helping out those mis-reading it cause they are NA.


let's get that 4% move going, and flush the ponzi scheme away

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 15:03 | 1678139 sushi
sushi's picture

Here is more detail on Fekter -



Austria's Finance Minister Maria Fekter was one eurozone politician at the meeting who voiced her objection to Mr Geithner's comments.

She said: "I found it peculiar that even though the Americans have significantly worse fundamental [economic] data than the eurozone, that they tell us what we should do."


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 16:06 | 1678408 riley martini
riley martini's picture

 And yet the EU does the same thing as the USA, fascist corruption bailout for banksters in exchange for bribes and inside  information for more stealing. What a crook says and what a croof does two different matters.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 11:25 | 1681883 thewhitelion
thewhitelion's picture

Fekter?  I've never even met her!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:20 | 1677701 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

ah, austria!

this all has a delicicious parallel with creditanstalt... 

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:42 | 1677813 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Yes, Creditanstalt, bitches.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:25 | 1677720 Little John
Little John's picture


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:24 | 1677721 Shit Bag
Shit Bag's picture

What a shame.. and this in the same country where Menger, Von Bohm-Bawerk, Von Mises and Hayek were born..


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 15:06 | 1678157 ImnotPOTUS
ImnotPOTUS's picture

You forgot the landscape painter / former WW1 veteran / who had a hard time writing some book.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 15:31 | 1678276 Shylockracy
Shylockracy's picture

No, No! As the Austrians like to believe and have no shame to say, "Hitler was German and Beethoven was Austrian!"

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:33 | 1677765 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Hey WANG, I think this Gold is restricted so don't tell 'em you're Austrian...OK, Fine!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:31 | 1678003 Jackfish
Jackfish's picture

You ought'a get a bowl of soup with that gold, uh...looks good on you.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:40 | 1677804 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Austria is probably not on the radar of the people it should be on due to it's impressive looking numbers on the back pages of the Economist.  Sneaky bastards gonna start yet another war.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:51 | 1677847 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

that will only buy 1/10 ounce soon

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:51 | 1677848 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

that will only buy 1/10 ounce soon

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:03 | 1677888 mrks
mrks's picture

Yeah, uhm... not really. The cruicial words are "at a time", which means you can buy another 15k worth of gold the next day, or even the same day if you bother to go to another dealer.

The 15k are just a regulatory limit imposed by the EU to deter money laundering. It isn't even a new thing as far as I remember - you're required to provide some form of identifiation for larger transaction for a couple years now, be it gold or paper money. That and the regulation applies to the whole EU, if I'm not mistaken.

I'd have to check if the laws changed recently, but just a couple months ago you could buy millions worth of gold without much trouble, as long as you are willing to show your drives license, passport or similar ID.

So, yeah... nothing to see here, move along.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 19:06 | 1678913 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

My banker (in USA) let slip that any transaction involving cash over a rather small amount (like $2k) has them making phone calls to the government to report it *immediately*.  She was trying to help me when I needed to move a bunch of money around -- keep me out of trouble (small towns are like that). Classified part of the oxymoronically named Patriot act.  You might think you're running under the radar, but you're not.  Everything is seen here, move along.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 15:25 | 1678242 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

The old rule was you had to show a passport above €15k now you just have to go from a large bank branch (all of them sell bullion), to the austrian mint, to another bank branch and it is still ANONYMOUS under €15k per purchase. I was not asked to show a passport to buy my tube of 1oz philharmonics from the mint today.

Keep an eye on the nationalist political parties in all European countries. When things get bad (they haven't even started yet) there will be trouble.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 02:29 | 2299776 jaffa
jaffa's picture

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Sat, 09/17/2011 - 06:10 | 1679471 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

i'm not sure of this claim...I haven't seen any support of it anywhere else in the german or austrian media or anywhere at all. 

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:05 | 1677637 B-rock
B-rock's picture

Wooo hooo!!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:06 | 1677640 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Time for a German to take power in Austria and give them some payback!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:06 | 1677642 THECOMINGDEPRESSION

The entire JPM SILVER suit is over at Turds site..take a look. Looks like SILVER will be heading WAYYYYY up

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:10 | 1677661 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

I expect a bailout/creditline for Austrian banks soon. No Armageddon. Frohe Weihnachten!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 15:12 | 1678188 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Do you see where gold is today, buddy?  Frohe Weihnachten, indeed.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:18 | 1677683 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

AAAustria, soon to be AAustria. And then finally, AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAuuustrriaaaaaaa!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:17 | 1677686 Waffen
Waffen's picture

1,786 Trillion? Huh what?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:18 | 1677697 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

heh, they use comma's instead of periods for decimals. :)

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:22 | 1677709 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Ah yes, I recall that now; sorry I was putting my American centric mindset into this Euro article.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:18 | 1677694 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

No problem for the Austrian people as long as they are holding gold.....or wait, they are not allowed to purchase any more -

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:20 | 1677703 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Is this from any source or just the Austrian Banks?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:24 | 1677717 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Not sure.  According to this article the network of dealers for gold is not as extensive as here in the United Fakes of America -

This chap says that the two banks there are denying this "rumor" -

Time will tell, but it fits in well with this ZH post.

All I know is that the NFL pat down policy just instituted here (not that I follow those circuses) has me eyeing the exits pretty hard now.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:26 | 1677728 Waffen
Waffen's picture

"NFL pat down policy just instituted here" please elaborate?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:31 | 1677754 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

The next target of these invasions will be malls based on the chatter I am hearing and when that happens it will be my time to abandon the country. 

My Austrian Jew family (Baum family) fled Austria during WWI as they saw what was coming.  The crackdown here seems to be accelerating.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:35 | 1677772 Waffen
Waffen's picture

The problem is, where does one go?  There is no libertarian free land to run to that the bankers havent corrupted.


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:40 | 1677800 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Iceland seems to be the only one that has stood up to the bankers.  Too bad they just reopened the currency arbitrage that sank the Krona in the first place. Who knows anymore.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:47 | 1677829 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Where does one go? To the gun store, obviously. Also, to the library/book store/internet. Figure out exactly what type of land it is you want to inhabit. What political and economic constructs best support your ideal nation? Learn the theories, know them intimately, love them as you love your rifle. There will be plenty of people who have no idea what they are fighting for or how any of it happened if/when the moment arrives: Don't be one of them. The time for cultivating intellectually, psychologically, and physically prepared leaders is upon us and passing quickly.

No more running like bitches to avoid problems. Yes, that childish instinct is rampant throughout the whole of the American society(White Flight, drug abuse, divorce rate, etc), but it must be stomped out as ruthlessly as the oligarchs.

Throw the banksters off our backs and save this fucking country.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:52 | 1678078 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

++ You're rocking my world today, CM.  Absolutely agree.  Immerse oneself in self-defense and history.  Know history, know what works and what doesn't.  Being gaijin stacks the odds against you from the start if/when the shtf in your foreign locale.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:04 | 1677890 Ferrari
Ferrari's picture

I've had this thought myself. And my expectations are lower. I was just hypothetically seeking a somewhat honest, non-kleptocratic country, and I couldn't really come up with one. Yes, Iceland is the exception that proves the rule. A commendable place, Iceland, but... Dunno. The climate & culture are too alien for my tastes. So I chose to stay here for now, working on my marksmanship. 

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:51 | 1677849 Monday1929
Monday1929's picture

Don't expect help from this crowd. You are now on a list.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:06 | 1677896 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Shit.  I have been on the list since 2008.  Ever since I have started my protesting at the local level with police -

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:32 | 1677756 Mariposa de Oro
Mariposa de Oro's picture

Prison Planet (Alex Jones) has an article on it today.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:38 | 1677795 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I try to always point cooraborating evidence from the MSM outlets. Unfortunately if mass public doesn't see the marque FOX, CNN, USA Today, tehy tend to ignore it as conspiracy.  I agree with Alex more often than not though - don't get me wrong.



Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:59 | 1677875 Mariposa de Oro
Mariposa de Oro's picture

You're right.  The sheeple only accept MSM propaganda.  I quit following it several years ago, so now I have no idea what BS they're spouting day to day.  Thanks for the assist!


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:15 | 1677940 mrks
mrks's picture

This chap is right - those rumors are completely ridiculos and probably based on some fucked up translation of EU regulations which require some form of identification for transactions >= 15k EUR.

You've to show your passport of drivers license, hand over the money and that's it - off you go with as much gold as you're able to afford.

And if you want to stay completely anonymous, you just have to buy less than 15k EUR worth of Gold at a time - which is still perfectly legal. Considering the number of companies specialised in selling PMs, you could easily buy/sell more than a million Euro worth of gold a week without even having to leave Vienna, yet nobody would even ask for you name.

So much for internet-rumors.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:21 | 1677704 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

See first post Dr.Dickhead. He beat us, stings a little doesn't it?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:27 | 1677735 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Not that bad.  Just means I am in good company. What does sting is my anus from Benny B and his Money Printing Gang and the TSA thugs that broke open some of the older TARP wounds. FUck this place man (the US that is)

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:37 | 1677788 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

There's always expatriation:) You can buy a passport. Heellloooouw Costa Rica!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:21 | 1677706 Herman Strandsc...
Herman Strandschnecke's picture

Well, as soon as the new EU lawful lightbulb fittings arrived the jets became inoperable at night as with the folk in the control tower who still have difficulties unless they can find some old stock of proper ones somewhere.

F.U. E.U

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:22 | 1677707 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Thanks for the article Toni! It's been disturbingly quiet what comes to Austria. When the crisis started Austria's spreads vs Germany and other "core" countries widened violently because of the fear what is hidden in the banks and the exposures to Eastern Europe. Then the spreads came back in when the "green shoots" aka fiscal and monetary voodoo started to kick in good. After that there were brief periods when the spreads widened again but for quite long now Austria has been trading like there's nothing to worry abt. Greece, Ireland, Portugal etc stole the attention and noone even talks abt Austria anymore.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:26 | 1677730 Nascent_Variable
Nascent_Variable's picture

Here's an interesting excerpt from the Austrian Constitution:

Article 74  [Vote of No Confidence]
(1) If the House of Representatives passes an explicit vote of no confidence in the Federal Government or individual members thereof, the Federal Government or the Federal Minister concerned shall be removed from office.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:35 | 1677782 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Thanks for the link!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:26 | 1677732 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

Osterreich Ueber Alles!!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:33 | 1677761 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Dont miss the ongoign escalating tensions down in Serbia and Kosovo. NATO reiterated it will peackeeper  forever. Serbia president said to forsake EU membership ober Kosovo. Border tension escalating 

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:35 | 1677776 Robslob
Robslob's picture


Trademarks by slob

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:35 | 1677777 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Mises, Hayek and Menger would not be impressed with their homeland these days.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:41 | 1677807 Peter K
Peter K's picture

Xenophobic. OK. But by the same token, shouldn't you be calling the Democrats Marxists? Just saying.....:)

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:46 | 1677827 Monday1929
Monday1929's picture

That's 1.7 trillion, not 1.7 quadrillion (comma is typo).

Does anyone ever ask Jamie Dimon who will pay JPM even if all 70 trillion of his derivative bets are correct? His counterparties are as broke as Austria's.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 15:37 | 1678303 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

comma is different usage, not a typo: US = 1.7 trillion; Austria & Germany = 1,7 trillion

These numbers are the same: US = 1,732.50; Austria & Germany = 1.732,50

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:47 | 1677832 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Does Arnold's luvchild qualify as the most recent Austrian scandal?  Or does living in Mexifornia disavow one of heritage?  Just curious...

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:48 | 1677837 Peter K
Peter K's picture

As to the guest list at the opera ball", the end will come when they invite Monica Lewinsky:)

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:46 | 1677852 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Yeah, yeah,(yawn), where have I heard this before? Everyday its a new story.....

Yesty Kyle Bass said a 2% adverse move tips JAPAN under, I'm very scared Oooohhh.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:53 | 1677855 BlankfeinDiamond
BlankfeinDiamond's picture

Austria eh. Gooday mate. Let's put another shrimp on the barbie.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:06 | 1677897 Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture



Thanks Prudent Investor!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:13 | 1677929 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Speaking of eurozone did u guys see this little gem from Portugal today? Another tiny "mistake" in their books. These things just keep coming. I think it has been at least two times already THIS year when they have been cought with these lies. Unbelievable...

09-16 14:06: Portuguese government doesn't expect to find more unreported...

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:27 | 1677985 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


another "system collapse" prediction...

folks are either ready or not, whether anything bigger than a fuking umbrella collapses or not

maybe austria needs umbrellas if the sky is falling, there, b/c the pols haven't learned that the banksters are in charge.  yet

someone above paid tribute to some austrian economists.  why tf would austria join the EU?  b/c their fuking banksters & pols wanted them to? now, who or what can possible "save" them?

are EFTS bonds "feasible"?  is the fuking jury still out?  is the pope going to prison? aren't paper bulls more readable than papal bulls?   the US, japan, and china will "make them an offer they can't refuse" b/c they can...

...monetiZe, BiCheZ!!!

if you don't wanna see the greatest nanny summer camp website in the history of the universe, don't hit this link and see how YOU can participate in various activities while "away", ok?

just don't go here:  EUROPA - European Union website, the official EU website

the nannies are extremely highly organized, full 0'shit, and ruthless about taking care of everything & everyone by constantly generating new "rules" for everybody except the puppet masters who pull their stringie-string-strings.  when there are dead people all over the place (30+K in libya, 40+K "wounded") it is not their fault.  ever. 

soon, these greedy, power-hungry, bloodthirsty, degenerate, robotic puppets in panties will control even their own puppeteers.  just ask them!

nannies + banksters +  military-industial corpo-fascists = NWO = owners of everybody, inluding the "elected" = protectors of "rights"~~~THEIRz

what could possibly go wrong?  this haZta work!  print, print, print..., bomb, bomb, bomb,... lie, lie, lie,...control, control, control,...prison, prison, prison,...

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:52 | 1678075 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Rampant Fraud Worldwide looks like.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:56 | 1678103 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Again: STFU Europe with bad mouthing the US Treasury Secretary would be my advice. He can help...but we already have a plan to deal with the EU flying apart and it doesn't include bailing you out precisely because that puts the US deficit situation in a whole new light.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 15:08 | 1678171 prole
prole's picture

From the same article explaining the new Austrian 'gold regs':

-Meanwhile, in Italy, top industrials and professionals have sent a letter to the government and parliament to ban all cash transactions above 300 Euros, and only permit electronic transfers!

IMHO th.. what bold wtf </b> test wtf OK I can't kill bold
IMHO this is checkmate for Big Brother. Gold bugs think their gold is "going  up" in value against paper money. Big Brother eliminates paper money. Then what do you do with your gold. They win by low-blow. Nothing ever changes.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:28 | 1678704 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Then what do you do with your gold.

Buy a house with it.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 15:32 | 1678281 soopy
soopy's picture

Öh nööö.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 01:02 | 1681103 Mr. Magniloquent
Mr. Magniloquent's picture

Do my eyes decieve me? How is it possible for €1.786x1015 to exist? Have I read this properly? Only when counting atoms within my laboratory experiments do I encounter such numbers. I find myself stunned and unable to continue with the article. I shall presume a concise assumption that Austria is doomed.

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