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Guest Post: Silver: Ready to Pop or Drop?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by FMX Connect

Silver: Ready to Pop or Drop?

 

image

 

Volatility is About to Expand

On several occasions in the past, we’ve alerted readers to potentially big moves in markets using our Trend-Vol alerts, Precious Metals being the chief focus. Trend-Vol is an early warning system that focuses on several factors to predict movement. Those factors include: historical and implied volatilities, skewness and Bollinger Band width.  This momentum indicator warns when volatility is about to increase and directional moves can be large, quick, and profitable, even after the original trigger goes off.

Simply put, and stated here often; volatility breathes. We believe that it is about to exhale soon in the Precious Metals, particularly Silver, but Gold is on the radar as well. What we do not know is in which direction the markets will head…. yet. 

A Silver Trend-Vol Retrospective

We can show some historical behavior in Silver when the signal triggers using the chart above.

1. Here Silver gave a mid-day signal that you might have bought and held with a stop at the top band line which also coincided with the 100 SMA. You would have been rewarded with at least $1.50 had you knew where to place trailing protective stops. This even if you only bought the close of the break out day and held for 3 days.

2. This was a quick 2 day trade that had you again bought the close of a very strong day, you’d have had an opportunity to sell $1.00 to $2.00 higher the next day.

3. This is where the CME margin raises just proved to be too much for the market to bear. If you sold the initial day’s close despite it being over a $3.00 down day, you’d have still had $5.00 left in the move the next day, and if you were brave with overnight orders, another $3.00+ the next.

To be fair, as in every system, devils lurk in the details. Like, how to determine what an entry point is and what is a fake out; Where to put your initial stop-loss and how to trail-stop winners. These vary depending on the trader’s style bankroll and VaR management. This may help:

  • Risk 1 to make 2-3 on your trades.
  • Use daily low/highs and the Bollinger Band line for trail-stops
  • The lowest risk signals come at end of day, midday signals may reverse hard.
  • Conversely, waiting for end of day to confirm a signal, often misses a good chunk of the move.
  • The best daily alerts often coincide with a 60 minute B-Band widening from a tight position.

Get Ready

Silver and to a lesser extent Gold are poised to move. You can make a case for either direction. Today’s action was very constructive for commodities in general. But Gold and Silver were the weak performers.

The charts show bear-flags, but stochs are in the process of reversing. Fact is, we can see what we want based on our own bias. What we are much more confident in is that in the next week, the Precious Metals will have a move of their own. 

If you are in the camp that Europe must print money to solve its problems, despite the evidence that Germany is getting its way for now then put on your buying shoes. Ditto if you see Helicopter Ben cranking out more greenbacks in response to a Euro debasing or political pressures from our Keynesian overlords.

If you believe that we are on a deflationary spiral, and that there simply isn’t enough money to buy anything at current inflated prices, and there will be no QE3 and that Europe will have enough (levered) money to solve their Grecian woes then get ready to sell Mortimer. Just remember that straddles don’t care which way the market goes.

Last week we told people to keep their powder dry. Now it is time to load’em up. We’ll update you on a direction when we see it in the markets. – Good Luck.

 

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Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:26 | 1805496 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Yes, any way it will be ok.
If it drops, BUY MORE!!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:32 | 1805517 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Pointless article!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:39 | 1805553 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Agreed.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:59 | 1805667 bernorange
bernorange's picture

I've been watching/tracking the inventory of 100oz silver bars at the major dealers for the last couple of weeks:

http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f3/physical-supplies-100oz-bars-drying-up-13/

Don't really care what happens with the paper futures market.  The physical market is indicating growing scarcity. 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:08 | 1805719 kito
kito's picture

from where, the pro pm websites? the ones that always preface the shortage argument with, "i just finished speaking with a big hong kong bullion dealer who said...."

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:13 | 1805761 bernorange
bernorange's picture

No.  I'm talking about the dealers like tulving, apmex, provident metals, etc.  Many of the major dealers disclose inventory information.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:27 | 1805822 trav7777
trav7777's picture

so they sold some inventory down and will restock.  So what?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:33 | 1805856 bernorange
bernorange's picture

Perhaps.  Maybe it's just me but watching major dealers report no inventory for weeks at a time seems possibly significant.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:56 | 1806310 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

I'm long physical silver, but I don't think I'd read all that much into what you're seeing there.

The only indication that I see that they're wanting more inventory is that APMEX is paying a couple of bucks above spot for eagles- but that in and of itself is not screaming "massive shortage" to me.

The way I see it, they've got an interest in not selling out their entire stock when the price is low.  It's not like metal goes bad sitting in the vault.  But then again, it has been a pretty consistant rumor- for my part, I've been seeing desirable silver get a little more hard to come by (ASEs and pre-65 dollars,) but there is still plenty of oddball metal around- stuff like commemorative coins and smaller pre-65 change. 

Shortages may come, but I don't think they're here yet.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 12:21 | 1808628 endurion
endurion's picture


I am the president of a precious metals wholesaler of an equal size with Tulving (whose domain name seems to have expired). I can tell you that the massive drop in the silver price caused our order volume to spike up about 500% for about 1 week. 

Since then, however, order volume has dropped off a cliff... and this has been industry-wide. A great deal of the physically available silver inventory for immediate delivery was consumed during that week-long buying binge in the $28-$31 range. Most mints are a few weeks behind, but the government mints are keeping regular allocations to all distributors, i.e.: US Mint, Royal Canadian Mint, etc.

If people weren't so spooked about buying more silver right now, the shortages would be *much* more pronounced. If silver moves more than $2-$3 in either direction I would expect order volumes to spike up significantly once more and this will exascerbate the existing strain on the inventory.

Right now we have over 40,000 ounces of US Silver Eagles availabe for immediate shipment for $2.75 over REAL spot on 500 oz. or more. PM me or email me if you want credentials, at cdolson [at| treasureislandcoins [dot| com  ... if you want, we're at 701-282-4747.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 16:19 | 1809789 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

-

 

The retail market tells a story however, I believe that the real physical (true price) story is to be found in the bulk physical market.  There are more than a few indications and anecdotes that this market is extremely tight with prices for bulk delivery silver in size substantially above the retail market prices.

 

These statistics are from the London ponzi silver leasing market, however they provide some information in terms of silver available to hold for a while.  A dropping SIFO gives indication of market tightening.

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/?page_id=56&title=silver_forwards&show=2011

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:46 | 1805904 kito
kito's picture

ive used gainesville coins, and the only time there was a temporary shortage was during the mania when silver was at 49. you could call now and get as much as you want...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:16 | 1806009 bernorange
bernorange's picture

Gainesville is reporting that they are out of stock on all 100oz silver bars.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 03:13 | 1807280 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Gainesville coins has had my $745.00 dollars for three weeks and are not sending my order until th 31 st. Which means they will have stolen the interest on my money for a month. Fuck gainesville coins 

They suck and I will never order from them again.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 11:28 | 1808405 silverguy1979
silverguy1979's picture

I have not purchased from Gainesville Coins yet but a few of my friends do and they seem to really like dealing with them.  I looked on their site and earlier this month and they did have some stated delays on products so I chose to wait until all items were back in stock.  I don't think you can get mad at them though if they stated there would be delays upfront.  If you didn't like it, then you shouldn't have purchased.  Just my 2 cents

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 11:33 | 1808406 silverguy1979
silverguy1979's picture

Also with Tulving, I have heard some pretty nasty things about this company. He filed chapter 7 liquidation back in the early 90's.  I don't care what his prices are, I wouldn't trust this person!  I saw this article the other day and would never purchase from him:  http://articles.latimes.com/1991-01-16/business/fi-266_1_coin-dealers

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 09:05 | 1811912 boatman
boatman's picture

my buddy bought from g'ville.....3 WEEKS late on delivery AND the biggest bunch of BS you ever heard on the phone for those 3 weeks.....really....i don't have a dog in this race.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 21:27 | 1806737 lostintheflood
lostintheflood's picture

from where, the pro pm websites

 

no...you go to tulving.com...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:28 | 1805745 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ bernorange

Tulving a couple of weeks (or so) ago advertised they had 500,000 oz of silver in stock.  When I checked Saturday, they only advertised 400,000 oz in stock...

Also, one of the coin shops where I buy gold had little inventory (no AGEs).

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:29 | 1806052 bernorange
bernorange's picture

DoChen, would you mind contacting me via the contact form on pmbug.com?  I would like to talk to you about this privately if you don't mind.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:40 | 1806085 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Just did!  But, I am not an expert on PMs, I follow them closely, but no expert.

Privately is OK.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:12 | 1806175 bernorange
bernorange's picture

Thanks.  Sent you a response.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 21:29 | 1806745 lostintheflood
lostintheflood's picture

I would like to talk to you about this privately

 

but i wanna hear!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:08 | 1806341 juslen
juslen's picture

Damn right, when silver was around 25 dollars an ounce I was able to go on E-Bay and buy one ounce silver eagles for 27 dollars a piece and two silver eagles for 52 dollars + shipping. When silver was last 27 dollars or so, silver was upwards of 39 dollars an ounce on E-Bay. For the last couple weeks silver has been around 31 dollars an ounce. Unless you buy 10-100 oz bars or you buy rolls of rounds or coins you are paying a minimum of 37 dollars an ounce once you factor in shipping and handling fees. Even after silver went from 50 an ounce to 34 in just a few short weeks silver prices were still around 40 an ounce for quite some time. So yes, physical silver is scarce.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 01:20 | 1807180 passwordis
passwordis's picture

   The supplier (a broker) I've been dealing with for years has a 35 day delay on virtually all silver. They've had delays in the past  but nothing approaching 35 days.

As far as the price you are paying.. $37 when spot is around $30?   You need to shop around my friend!  As we speak my supplier has 100 oz JM bars for $3272 shipped to your door plus a $50 small order fee for orders under 500 ounces. 10 oz bars are almost identical in price. Rounds are a buck or so more.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:40 | 1805558 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

if it doesn' pop with gold revaluation, then it will pop with inflation next year because i know it cost more than 30 dollars to get it out of the ground

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:47 | 1805611 wombats
wombats's picture

It might go up or it might go down.  Absolutely profound!

How much is this guy paid for these insights?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:10 | 1805989 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

 

 

He is at least as smart as dumbo trader...

Neither of them gives a target.. thats a good start.

but to be fair to the article I think we are appraoaching an interesting move.

My (guess), as thats all it is. First the metals get pole-axed as Greece goes down.

then bond's euro bank runs etc, sell everything not bolted down if you have margin out. Panic & riots in the southern EU

Then we head into the total and final "Crack up boom" as the system heads off the cliff, and confidence is  finally smashed. (QE = ?)

At this stage it will be "Tangible assets only" or you will be screwed.

But what the heck would I know?

I keep waiting for Dumbo trader to give me some more "Hot stock tips"

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:13 | 1806000 illyia
illyia's picture

I actually enjoyed this post as my thesis is recognized: Euro talks fail; big sell-off on sentiment if not earnings; gold sells off to cover margin calls incurred in this run up; gold bottoms with a sharp move to 1485 or so; turns around on a dime with smart buyers....

Thus the post is useful to me as confirmation of a planned trade.

Thanks Guest Poster.

i.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:36 | 1806395 FinLen
FinLen's picture

He said he would let us know when the direction is evident.  You can use the info then and make a call one way or the other.  Or since this blog is free you can decide not to come to this site at all and make your own mind up.  Lets not bite the hand that feeds us.....

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 23:19 | 1807013 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Being ahead of not behind the move is what pays. The only useful point of this post is saying there will be great volatility. That's not much news.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:24 | 1805795 Executioner
Executioner's picture

"Silver and to a lesser extent Gold are poised to move. You can make a case for either direction."

Now that's reassuring.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:34 | 1805858 FinHits
FinHits's picture

It is a golden opportunity to have a silver lining, I guess.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:57 | 1806113 SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

MANY SAY SILVER WILL BE HEADING LOWER, BUT THE FUNDAMENTALS POINT TO HIGHER PRICES

1) COT Commercial Net Short percentage lowest since 2003....even lower than when silver was $8.90 in OCT 2008.

2) Largest Commerical Short Position against the Dollar I have seen in years.  59,000 Commercial Shorts compared to 9,000 Commerical Longs

3) Wholesale shortage is taking place when industrial buyers have to wait for delivery after buying at $30 an ounce

4) There is no GLOBAL SURPLUS of Silver....that's pure bunk....and there will be no surplus in 2012 or there after.  

5) GFMS stated global slver supply would increase 7.4% to over 790 million oz in 2011 compared to 735 mil oz in 2010.  Mexico's silver production was at 60.4 mil JAN-JUN, while last year it hit a total of 128.4.  Peru's silver production is down 9% JAN-AUG.  BHP Billiton just came out with their Q3 and they are down 25% YOY for the Q3 and down 20% for the first 9 months of 2011.  Chile's copper production is down 4.3% in the first 8 months so you can figure their silver is down about the same percentage.  Finally, the USA is down 10% JAN-JUL. 2011 will show a DROP not an INCREASE in global silver production

There is a great deal of MISINFORMATION in the media about gold and silver.  Without the constant manipulation of gold, silver, oil and US Treasuries, the DOLLAR WOULD BE DEAD.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:18 | 1806188 Hearst
Hearst's picture

You could also add the recent passage position limits by the CFTC, ongoing lawsuits against JPM, ongoing investigation by CFTC into Silver manipulation all leaning on the on the side of bullish.  Also remember CME Silver margin requirements are higher than years ago with Silver holding ground around $32 per oz which by the way is still up for the year.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:41 | 1806276 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

The position limits only go into effect for the current month each month, and that doesn't start for 60 days. Anybody can still short to infinity on future months to suppress the current price. They won't be ready to implement position limits for all months until after the dollar is dead and they don't need to suppress the metals. Silver margin requirements still have a long way to go before they reach 100%. This vote is all for show unless Chilton really does speak out.

@SRSrocco
Good points for why silver should eventually go higher, but it's a manipulated market and it can go lower in the meantime. It probably will only because they are desperate to convince people to stay away from it. At the current rate of depletion there will be no more above ground available silver at current prices within 6 months.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 00:58 | 1807157 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Bring back Turd Ferguson.  His picks are probably no better but the big yellow cowboy hat he wears he probably takes a dump in it.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:33 | 1805521 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

That cute little Canadian reporter was right.  Gold isn't backed by anything..  except faith..

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:38 | 1805546 knukles
knukles's picture

Sometimes I wonder what's backed that cute little Canadian reporter. Got a smoke, eh?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:42 | 1805574 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

and the 'cme'

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:50 | 1805912 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

 

 

Rafter's Cliff Notes:

Silver may rise, or fall. Gold, the same.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:26 | 1806380 caerus
caerus's picture

difficult to read charts when the cme can still raise margins but SI looks like a pennant a la early may...if the pattern repeats then may get a run to 36ish followed by a hike but that game can only go on for so long...still wary about pm sell off that follows equities...be ready to turn on a (silver) dime...devil's metal after all

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:26 | 1805497 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

silver and gold are way over-priced.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:30 | 1805511 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Unless you think there is something nefarious about oil being up $6 since Thursday - > 7%

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:31 | 1805516 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

oil is cheap. gold and silver are damn near worthless.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:37 | 1805545 The Peak Oil Poet
The Peak Oil Poet's picture

 

silver is useful

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:38 | 1805552 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

it was once used for coins, silverware, photography, etc.. Now it is a useless relic.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:44 | 1805562 The Peak Oil Poet
The Peak Oil Poet's picture

 

 

 

silver is useful - all sorts of uses like photgraphic film and paper

 

oops

 

ok, ah, gold is very shiny and i like shiny things - there!

 

i surely do love silver
i surely do love gold
they'll be as they are trusted now
and since the days of old

http://thepeakoilpoet.blogspot.com/2011/08/i-surely-do-love-silver.html

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:48 | 1805614 The Peak Oil Poet
The Peak Oil Poet's picture

 

silver is like, well, doomed.

 

a bazillian disempowered righteous types bought it up big when it was way over its value - when all of those people suddenly. en mass, decide they've been duped (by themselves and otherrs playing to their foolishness), the price will fall to like $12

 

nothing is sure

 

except the foolishness of people

 

pop

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:04 | 1805695 JohnG
JohnG's picture

You could be right...I've been thinking along these lines.  If/when they physical buyers that bought on the way to 50 dump nearly all at one, price could easily half.

That'll be the time to buy.

I could be wrong (often I am), but it does make sense.

 

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:02 | 1806141 fnord88
fnord88's picture

I doubt very much the people that went to the hassle of buying physical will sell. I know I won't. I didn't buy as a trade or investment. I bought because at soem stage in the next 2 years, probably in next 6 months, the whole world of paper is going to burn.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:41 | 1806088 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

There's 7 billion oz of Au above ground, 1 billion of AG. Every year they mine less Ag than demand, scrap has to make up the difference. Most of the primary silver mines are played out. The USGS says we have a decade or two of silver left. Then what, for all of those high tech industrial applications? Platinum or palladium? Silver will 'run out' long before oil does. That depletion is supposed to buoy the price of oil, but silver's going to crash?

The price is only as low as it is because no one can slug it out with the big boys. The run up to $49 was probably them sitting out for a bit. We know what the sentiment is, and it's driven by a financial picture that deteriorates daily.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:40 | 1805564 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Really, well here is one for you, Silver is used in cell phone manufacturing.  Did you know that or is that a dying business?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:45 | 1805591 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

that's all you've got? cell phones? let's see, silver is so rare and useful that they put it in disposable cell phones destined for the landfill? They couldn't make cell phones without a smidge of gold and silver?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:52 | 1805921 Honey Badger
Honey Badger's picture

Silver and Gold provide the ONLY counterbalance to fiat currency printing gone wild. 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 23:29 | 1807032 Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

Gold is the ultimate store of wealth/value.  Silver, as it is also an industrial commodity, isn't taken seriously as a pure bread currency.  I own both but can tell you that I'd take gold all day long over silver as the next global currency.  Silver is recycled, used in phones, etc. etc.

Gold is king of the hill.  And besides, you'd only use gold for your party tooth, right?!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:47 | 1806100 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

2010 industrial demand was 487 million oz. Most of that is used in amounts too small to recover. Most scrap comes from old coins and antiques, and accounted for 215 million oz in 2010, about 1/5 of total demand.

http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply_demand.php

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:51 | 1806289 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Quaid... open your mind... silver has over 10,000 industrial applications, second only to oil at roughly 30,000. Above ground available silver is estimated at 300 million ounces by MONEX, the lowest on Earth in the last 700 years, and half as much as we started the year with. Silver's molecular weight causes it to exist primarily at the surface of the Earth's crust and therefore is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive to mine.

Silver is the best conductor of electricity, ever, it is the best thermal conductor, ever, it is the most reflective metal, ever, it cannot be produced except by a red giant going supernova unlike oil which isn't even fully understood as to how it is created, but it is known to have come from organic material and therefore there is a way to replicate it given the proper understanding.

As for why it's wasted in landfills, the price is suppressed, it's not profitable to recover it. Money rules all, and silver is what they manipulate to ensure fiat is what you place your value in. Gold is too large of a market to manipulate, but the tiny $30 billion silver market is a snap.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 21:40 | 1806776 lostintheflood
lostintheflood's picture

silver is so rare and useful that they put it in disposable cell phones destined for the landfill?

 

yes, because "they" are idiots. it is all about profit, you know, nothing else.

every bunkerbuster bomb sends a monster box of silver to silver heaven.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 22:45 | 1806917 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

No, Buzzsaw.

That's not all it's good for.

Whatever you like to believe about the fair value, silver is quite a lot more useful that you probably think- it's just used in relatively small amounts, so there isn't a thriving scrap industry for the stuff.

It's the most conductive metal, so it's used for any application where tiny traces with minimal resistance is required.  It's used for any appliance, the abovemention cell phones included, to create printed traces for circuit boards that use web switches or require a degree of flexability.  They use it by impregnating ink with silver particles, which makes it nearly impossible to recover- and the quantities are miniscule.

Less miniscule are the amounts used in missiles.  The low resistance is a must for weapons systems.

It's also antibacterial, which is why it used to be used for flatware and things like tea sets.  But that's not the primary value now- silver solder for medical instruments is.  Because of the nature of the medical industry, it's extremely valuable for a company to be able to replace worn parts rather than an entire assembly- and that often means soldering the components together.  That solder has to be silver, not much else will work properly- and that actually often does use a meaningful amount of silver, which is almost never reclaimed when parts are replaced.  This is also the case with things like public water fountains, where the use of silver in the assemblies helps prevent massive viral and bacterial outbreaks.

And, it is the only way that you can make your own anti-viral and anti-bacterial agents at home.  Yes, it will turn your skin blue, especially around the eyes and other thin areas, but given a choice between an aqua hue and death- or risking the complications of trying to culture and refine your own antibiotics from a spore print (assuming you can even get one,) that seems like a small price to pay.

That isn't to say that the bottom can't fall out of the price- but it's not quite so useless as you may think.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:46 | 1805597 knukles
knukles's picture

Many many kilograms in each cruise missile...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:48 | 1805616 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

NOW YOU'RE TALKING!!!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:06 | 1805708 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

Flat screens, solar panels, medical, cars,   Many uses, in fact 55% of silver each year is used up and gone from production.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:47 | 1805906 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

PI- the silver is not gone. It is just stored in different form. Photo stuff is recycled all the time.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:17 | 1806012 Potemkin Nation
Potemkin Nation's picture

True, but in most uses it is in a form that is uneconomical to recover, so it is "gone" for all practical purposes.

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:53 | 1806306 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

How long before they start recovering it from the poopy-ponds? 

Colloidal Ag and AuShlager, Bitchez!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:36 | 1806074 Dick Fitz
Dick Fitz's picture

Buzzsaw, I've been here for a few months, and your avatar and posts have always made me retch like I just drank soured OJ.

You've gone too far this time- why do you post here...wait, I just realized- YOU'RE A FUCKING TROLL! I get it now!

I love the fact that your posts get junked 99% of the time, since you have nothing to contribute to the conversation. How's that job at Goldman Sucks as their new social media specialist working out for ya?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:58 | 1805663 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

Which in turn is used to "liberate" more of it from their barbaric occupiers..

First come the missiles then come the CATs..

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:30 | 1805841 Uncle Sam
Uncle Sam's picture

The Chinese buy it by the ton, grind it up and spray it into the clouds for rain, never to be seen again.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:32 | 1806254 ali-ali-al-qomfri
ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

technically, it is a dying business.

http://quwave.net/EMF-Pollution.html

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:41 | 1805566 HeNateMe
HeNateMe's picture

Haha.  You really have a VERY sarcastic sense of humor don't ya?

If not, silver is no relic.  You should try sitting on it sometime after a long hard day at work.  Feels mighty nice next to a tight anus.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:46 | 1805600 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

how the hell would you know what a tight anus feels like?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:51 | 1805620 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Your avatar gives us all a good idea of what a loose one looks like!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:52 | 1805631 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

+1

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:34 | 1806392 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Too much tequila and acid is bad for you buzz.
Sorry for the bad news bloke.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:00 | 1805673 The Peak Oil Poet
The Peak Oil Poet's picture

 

 

his avatar suggests that there's a magic button somewhere

 

all we need is a (traditional, macho, vocab challenged) hero to push it and not only will we all be saved but we'll have a whole new world to rape and pilliage

 

there is a button - but it's the button that will wipe out 90% of city life - same net result kindof except that gold and silver will indeed become relatively plentiful and cheap

 

pop

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 23:14 | 1807007 hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

lol!! great exchange!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:50 | 1806436 SilverFocker
SilverFocker's picture

You mother was asked how did that feel......after giving birth to an ass clown,she soon changed her name to Lucy.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:47 | 1805602 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

yea, but when your big brother is gold your in pretty good company - eh ?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:46 | 1805604 Better_late_tha...
Better_late_than_never's picture

That's what we will say about the USD pretty soon.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:05 | 1805699 breezer1
breezer1's picture

if i were you i would sell.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:13 | 1805753 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Buzzsaw, I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you're just trying to be contentious, but really, this post is a tired rehash of anti-silver rants from back when digital photography was just starting to take off. Lots of people proclaimed silver "useless" at that time, (when it was under $10/oz), and the their arguments seemed at least plausible.

Now? The useless relic is finding new applications practically every day (e.g. photovoltaics, antibiotics), and price is a multiple of what it was. I hope your trading decisions aren't based on your fact-free opinions.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:18 | 1806202 Dick Fitz
Dick Fitz's picture

Too true. The antibiotic properties of silver alone make it more industrially valuable than it was 20 years ago. By 2025 every surface in a hospital, every "sterile" piece of clothing, every medical instrument, etc. will be nano-coated/impregnated with silver, and soon after so will almost all household surfaces.

The effect that such action will have on our already medically over sanitized systems is debatable, but at least in sterile environments it will be useful.

(as an aside, I think the prevalence of auto-immune disorders in kids- asthma, allergies, etc. -is directly correlated with our "over-sanitization" of their environment. Let them eat dirt, and don't give them shots every time they get a cold or cut themselves! Were breeding a culture of wimpy kids!)

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:28 | 1805828 trav7777
trav7777's picture

silver?  You on crack?  Silver is amazingly useful and has more industrial usage than it does for all of the rest of those combined.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:52 | 1805918 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

 

 

Buzz must be in a Down Rank contest

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:00 | 1805942 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

these same type of dumb fuk echo chamber circle jerkers were all screaming "BOND CRASH!" right along with Bill Gross last spring. I make money, and I stand by my record. Yeah, I'm a troll, but I will enjoy watching this bunch of self assured smug bugs lose their shirts in the coming months when PMs go into the toilet.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:57 | 1806126 HeNateMe
HeNateMe's picture

I won't lose anything if PMs go into the toilet.  In fact, I'll actually own more! 

BTW - But maybe, silver might go into the toilet if it is snuggled up against a tight anus and forgotten for awhile.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:39 | 1806205 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Buzz, I can understand your desperation for a little schadenfreude. I mean if you've been bearish on silver and gold the last two years and twelve weeks; IE since you opened your ZH acct. Ouch.

Especially if that is the record (loss) you want to be standing by...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:36 | 1806262 dougngen
dougngen's picture

you think paper fed reserve notes have intrinsic value? glad your here, you help make me feel smart!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:02 | 1805687 irishlink
irishlink's picture

Of course oil is up $6. Iraq is now under sharia law and Hillary Clinton is on a giggling high on Gadaffi's death. The people at the top of US government are behaving as if they are playing some Nintendo war game where they can just halt the outcome by turning off the switch. Their arrogance and manipulation is frightening. 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:21 | 1805787 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The Middle east is going to get much worse in the very near future.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:51 | 1805913 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

been hearing that for years. Some time it will happen. When? Who knows. ME has been crazyland forever...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:33 | 1805525 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Really?  Fill us all in, what are they overpriced in relationship to, the dollar, debt, stocks, or whatever, just fill us in.  You must know what you are talking about; no one would make such a comment without some analysis.  Waiting!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:35 | 1805534 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

time will tell. i stand by my statement.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:39 | 1805548 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Why not answer the question rather than stand by your words that are based upon nothing but a guess?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:40 | 1805563 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

If I told you that I would prefer to hold federal reserve notes instead of gold or silver you would have mocked that statement. Not wanting to endure mindless cackles i prefer to wait and see.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:42 | 1805573 HeNateMe
HeNateMe's picture

I'm sorry but federal reserve notes do NOT feel good against a tight anus.  Trust me. 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:27 | 1805816 Ryman1075
Ryman1075's picture

Sure they do...they are destined to become toilet paper or at least as valuable.  You better get used to the feeling!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:43 | 1805576 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

You mean wait and see if your Guess is correct, ..right?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:50 | 1805626 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i have my opinion, you have yours. that you don't consider yours to be a guess while mine is strikes me as arrogant and unseemly.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:01 | 1805683 HedgeCock
HedgeCock's picture

Maybe it's Mathman.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:31 | 1806248 akak
akak's picture

Impossible --- he never once used the phrase "only $5 to dig from the ground".

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:43 | 1805578 fuu
fuu's picture

MillionRoboBonusTrader is that you?!?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:02 | 1805956 kito
kito's picture

its not an issue of gold or silver being "overpriced" from charts, technicals, etc--it comes down to whether you believe any and all commodities will get shredded when the world goes through an acute deleveraging. we are heading into a deflationary period like nothing ever witnessed. 30 years plus of credit/debt expansion will implode, and cash is what you will want to hold. pms could go up a bit more as the european/us sovereign crisis heats up, but after that, look out below....

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:24 | 1806219 BigJim
BigJim's picture

When, when, WHEN, in all of history, has an 'acute deleveraging', a 'deflationary period like nothing we have ever witnessed', EVER been allowed to happen in a fiat currency regime?

The people who hold the reins have more to fear from deflation than inflation. Therefore, they WILL print.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:00 | 1806224 akak
akak's picture

Thank you for your opinion, Karl "Klownshoes" Denninger.

You may now return to your regularly scheduled forum banning.

 

PS: When the dollar, along with the rest of the world's fiat currencies and the corrupt financial and political systems propping up the fiat fraud, enters its final (and well-deserved) deathswirl in the monetary toilet, I am going to laugh long, and laugh hard, at the wails and agonied gnashing of teeth from all you deflationary flat-earthers, who in the face of ALL monetary and financial history still cling to your naive and clueless faith in central banker omnipotence and to the profoundly ignorant premise that "this time it's different". 

The ONE guaranteed outcome of the current financial and monetary chaos and corruption is the significant depreciation of the dollar, and most likely of ALL world fiat currencies --- and you can take that to the bank (and will, after the next "national bank holiday" of course).

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:40 | 1806273 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Fiat these days, is debt based.

You acknowlege yourself debt & credit are going to implode eventually, yet you advise holding fiat during the implosion expecting this incarnation of it to be worth something on the otherside.

With the stroke of a pen they can make every fiat ticket you hold worthless.

Good luck ;-)

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:57 | 1806313 kito
kito's picture

no amount of printing will make a bit of difference.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 00:09 | 1806330 akak
akak's picture

No, of course not --- that is why Argentina never suffered a currency crisis in 2001-2002, and why Zimbabwe is the economic powerhouse of southern Africa with a rock-solid currency that has stood the test of time, and why Weimar Germany is remembered solely for its decadent nightclub scene.

By the way, how's the weather on that flat earth of yours?

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 01:12 | 1807151 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Merry xmas jingo-trolls!

When were A to Z ever considered the 'World's Reserve Currency' (*W excepted)

Then again, well sir,  "The Old Grey Mare..."

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:47 | 1805607 kito
kito's picture

buzzsaw is right. no qe3, no ecb expansion, deleveraging will be tsunami like, kiss pms bye bye. i got out of bullion (physical) during the last wave down. only cash (physical) will survive. 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:54 | 1805643 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

these people seem to be all pm newbs. i held gold and silver at one time, sold it all. i wouldn't touch it now. silver and gold have already priced in QE3, oil hasn't.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:09 | 1805722 israhole
israhole's picture

You comment too much.  Diarrhea of the mouth.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:31 | 1805842 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

damn, if you had scrolled just a wee bit more you would have been past this argument altogether. after that you wouldn't see me. or even had you picked a different post, because i don't comment on every thread. you being a fellow joo hater too. alas, my guess is you don't like the message because you maxed out all your CCs buying over-priced silver and gold. go fuck yourself.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:36 | 1805864 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Like your commentary usually but 5,000 years of history are wrong as well as every central bank ever and your right cuz, because, well okay.. make your bets..  If cash is / will be king Ben will be the supreme potentate of the universe, sitting on a printing press throne with a large crown of fiat folded up real nice with flourishes..

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:58 | 1805664 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Probably right, I'll keep some gold and silver around, but this idea that its the most valuable thing around? Whats it really used for anymore?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:24 | 1805794 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Talk to someone in Argentina or Zimbabwe about holding nothing but fiat cash.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:35 | 1805862 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the paper notes of a bankrupt state do not become more worthful as a result of bankruptcy.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:06 | 1805973 kito
kito's picture

bankrupt is not the end result. massive amounts of digital zeros will disappear. pretend money will be washed away. leaving actual dollars as highly prized.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:13 | 1806177 fnord88
fnord88's picture

You guys really beleive helicopter Ben will allow the USA to default?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:46 | 1806270 akak
akak's picture

Every historical precedent says that you are full of shit.

Fiat currencies NEVER gain in value; their values only, ONLY ever move in one direction --- downward ---, whether quickly or more slowly, with a particular tendency (1:1 relationship, in fact) to move radically lower in direct proportion to the indebtedness of the issuing government.  Please give me one historical precedent to the contrary. 

PS: You can't.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:38 | 1806403 trav7777
trav7777's picture

This is the most absurd thing I have ever heard.  Seriously.

Digital zeroes can be conjured at a mouse click...and WILL.  You idiots were saying the same thing in 2008 and I told your master that they would print.  Guess what?  They did!  They will again!

The debt that backs the FRN is busted, the sovereign guaranteeing it is BANKRUPT.  You don't seem to understand that deleveraging and deflation are exactly what preceded the currency collapses of EVERY SINGLE state that's ever gone through one.

Hang onto your paper, by all means.  I'm sure it will enjoy the same track record as other paper.  There is nothing whatsoever special about a paper FRN versus an eDollar.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 20:01 | 1806468 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

People who believe fiat will not turn into toilet paper are still within the Matrix ...
Cmon people time is getting short.

Show us some historical examples of this "miracle paper"

If there IS an example maybe you could trade your FRNs for some?

Actually get me some while yo are at it could you.....

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 21:03 | 1806653 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

How can the first zero disappear when there are 20 leveraged zeros behind that zero waiting to get paid. ? You keep talking about "de-leverage" nothing is allowed to deleverage hence the bailouts. Deleveraging in itself is a controlled action. When this goes "it gone" !

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 23:31 | 1807041 hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

not gonna happen, that would destroy society. Central banks were, for decades, able to create more and more currency out of thin air via loan origination and hide it's sins behind real economic growth, which accelerated in the 80's and 90's due to computerized automation.  When growth stopped the growth of debt didn't and now that's all we can see and they are trying to hide it by monitzation, and I suspect they will, at some point, get desparate in their monitization to keep the ponzi scheme going. Goverments won't be allowed to default on a massive scale! That nominally would wipe out everyone's savings but not wipe out the debts-->> social chaos.  At least if you print your way out of it those affected will still feel they have something (albeit paper) and just continue to complain..which is better than mayhem.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:16 | 1805771 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

time will tell. i stand by my statement.

 

Can we write that on your tombstone, or do you plan to reside in an urn post-mortem?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:24 | 1806220 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

Watch out....you might get some on those shiny loafers....

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:27 | 1805499 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Pop.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:28 | 1805501 fuu
fuu's picture

I believe that the price for Gold and Silver will move, bitchez.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:29 | 1805505 fmxconnect
fmxconnect's picture

you want a job?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:32 | 1805519 fuu
fuu's picture

I am afraid that working for a living would compromise my ability to make unbiased calls.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:44 | 1805586 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

who could have known?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:48 | 1805615 knukles
knukles's picture

If he feels that way about it, he can always get a job on Goldie's sales desk.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:01 | 1805684 fuu
fuu's picture

nice

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:09 | 1805725 irishlink
irishlink's picture

Why does it have to be oil? Nat gas has been pummelled and is probably due a rise, especially in Europe if the weather forecasters get it right for once. All the Oil majors are rushing to increase their proven reserves. Where are they going to go? Nat gas?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:45 | 1805590 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

The price of silver will ither go up or down or stay the same , that is my insight and i know i will be right.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:28 | 1805506 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

up up up

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:29 | 1805507 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Gillian Tett is right.  Every CB in the world is shorting paper gold....just because it's in vouge.  

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:30 | 1805509 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Anyone believe this s**t?

Silver will be above $45 before November 30, 2011

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stock...

GUARANTEED!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:59 | 1805669 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Silver will be above $45 before Nov 30 2011'...

OK but what will a $buck be worth?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:27 | 1805815 I_am_always_right
I_am_always_right's picture

...and two lines down it says: "The charts arent saying so but we are stating that silver will be above $30 by November 30, 2011."

Knobheads.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:00 | 1805949 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

that statement is already 100% factually correct. this past april is certainly before november 30th :-p.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:30 | 1805512 cpgone
cpgone's picture

silver and gold are way under-priced.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:45 | 1805592 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Given some time you are absolutely right.  Short term?  My short term price opinions are nearly worthless.  But, buying gold and silver for the long term is a great investment and insurance.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:06 | 1805710 seek
seek's picture

Exactly. I really don't think there's many people who would make a call for gold/silver being down from current prices on November 1, 2016.

And if it indeed is down, well, I suspect everything else will be as well and relative purchasing power is maintained. Deflation is hard on everything, but gold has a history of being resilient in deflations as much as inflations.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:51 | 1805917 James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

My short term opinions are useful. DON'T DO IT. The digital trading system used for PM price "discovery" is antithetical to the primary reason that PM's have value in the first place. You can't define a constant by a variable. Sort of like trying to obtain the temperature of boiling water by using a thermometer made out of ice. Good luck with that. Unless you have a crystal ball for the date and time of system collapse, you will not get out in time.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 12:48 | 1808787 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Was "useful" a typo for "useless" in your comment? In the very 'short term' since Ag has broken 33 and change US bitzandbytes...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:30 | 1805514 RagnarD
RagnarD's picture

If funds are moved out of the Euro, the fastest, easiest move is to the USD, so bullish USD, which historically has correlated to bearish gold/silver.

Short term, of course.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:33 | 1805523 Banksters
Banksters's picture

The mother fucking  Central bank cartels will destroy the savers to bail out the banksters.  Guaranfuckingteed.   The poor son of bitches won't know what hit them, either. 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:42 | 1805560 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

This is sadly the way it's going to play out, the question is when. I'd say it's been playing out for years now, and will continue to. They keep nibbling at savings accounts here and there, and only take big bites when the markets "force" them to.

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