Guest Post: The Stock Market And The Dollar: There Are Only Three Possibilities

Tyler Durden's picture

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anynonmous's picture

Moodys affirms AAA

Obama to speak in 2 hours

 

TruthInSunshine's picture

No sane person who is capable of performing basic arithmetic needs S&P, Moody's or Fitch.

gmrpeabody's picture

Yes, yes..., but should I buy or should I sell?

And if so..., what?

;- )

Gert_B_Frobe's picture

Cliff notes for Comrade Zero's presser: (blather, blather, blather) inherited Bush's mess (blah, blah, blah) Tea Party terrorists (Iba beba prezdent, booyah) Speaking of Tea, I have to run. Tee time at 2:00. Later Suckuhs!

FreedomGuy's picture

Precisely right! More importantly after the blame everyone else blather there will be NO solution...at least no solution that does not involve more spending, bigger government and higher taxes. We are lead by a know-nothing who doesn't even really care what happens as long as there's another trip to Rio or Spain or Hawaii in it for his family.

Stares straight ahead's picture

Affirms AAA?  Did I miss something?

lunar's picture

Buffett's baby - he would even give AAAA

Stares straight ahead's picture

I guess Buffett will learn to keep his mouth shut!

Maybe he'd like to say somethun about the tea party next?

hedgeless_horseman's picture

If you liked BAC at $50 you should love it at $7.  It's almost like a 1 for 7 split.  Almost.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

CORRECTION:

If you liked BAC at $50 you should love it at $7 6. It's almost like better than a 1 for 7 split. Almost.

JSD's picture

That's exactly why we don't "pitch to bitch" here.

JSD's picture

"Yeah, ummm...I need to talk to my wife about this." "No you don't Harry."

TruthInSunshine's picture

oBLAHma is going to make a rare (/sarc) press conference appearance at 1 p.m.

Obama will  blah blah for a few minutes and then go raise more of what will be his 1 billion dollar warchest for his 2012 re-electionc campaign by pandering to Wall Street some more.

SilverDoctors's picture

Also, have to agree with your theory that Countrywide will be spun off from BAC this time.
Just too much toxic crap on that balance sheet.

Dr. Engali's picture

My view is that BAC will be loaded up with bad assets (bad bank) since they were never part of the club. Then they will be allowed to fail in a controlled (or an illusion of controlled)way.

Doyle Hargraves's picture

They already were loaded up with crap in 2008 (cunt tree wide), just been a ticking time bomb since then add in lawsuits and forced fannie/freddie repurchases they are already dead just do not know it yet...think Keith Richards.

Stuart's picture

ya, ok..  there's only two possibilities.  You live, or you die.  ..     

Diogenes's picture

Unless you do neither....... or something else happens.

Look at me I are a prognosticator.

channel_zero's picture

I pick door #1 Bob...

Why?  the top 20% are looking at the topline valuation of whatever's left in their savings and judge their fiscal health that way.  Nevermind the cost of living has increased such that the bottom 80% are poorer than ever.  Doesn't matter.  They can afford to fill the BMW and pay the kid's private school.  Everything is good!

 

It's like boiling frogs at this point.  Just don't turn the heat up too high.

 

Dow 13000 next month!

unky's picture

Gold costs almost more than Platinum, how long is this sustainable? Since Platinum is much rarer... I was just wondering

Hearst's picture

Similar argument with Silver.  Above ground stocks of Silver are dwarfed by above ground stocks of Gold and yet the Gold to Silver ratio is 43 to 1 !!

 

Economic law will play out and adjust these imbalances.  Until then enjoy the HFT show!

Sophist Economicus's picture

Gold will eclipse Platinum since the demand/supply factors for each metal are different -- i.e., rarity is in the eyes of the beholder...

dark pools of soros's picture

Rarity???  no no..  it's all about Tradition!!!

FreedomGuy's picture

Platinum is an industrial metal which is where more of it is used. Rarity is only half the equation. Remember it is a SUPPLY and DEMAND chart. The supply may be low but the demand due to crashing economy and Japanese auto factories idled drive the demand lower. So, it actually makes sense along with palladium and even silver. Silver has a larger money component so it will waffle in between.

Irish66's picture

When do all are banks get halted?

John McCloy's picture

  Wow BAC is about to cross over into the 6's.

Spitzer's picture

There will be deflation in the US priced in Euro's, not dollars. Look at the problems in Europe yet the Euro is still above parity.

DaBernank's picture

Our problems are just getting started over here in Europe and the people on the street know it. Current trading/speculative Momo *price* of € is 1.42. True *value* of € is trash because of lack of mechanisms to deal with the massive debt levels of all nations (even Germany is at 83.2% GDP), ECB has only 550 tons gold, there's wide disunity of cultures/identities. Nationalist parties have already gained momentum in many nations. Breakup is inevitable.

FreedomGuy's picture

The Euro! It was fun while it lasted, right, lol? It has the same problem as the welfare state. Countries like Greece and Portugal ride the higher ratings and bailouts like a national welfare case, just like welfare recipients live off the higher productivity of others.

anynonmous's picture

just saw a clip with Zandi

his trousers were on backwards

tekhneek's picture

D) Stocks crash, dollar crashes, precious metals sky rocket.

YHC-FTSE's picture

That's what is happening now. Gold and Equities are diverging, when traditionally they ran parallel during uncertain times. What happens when stocks pick up? And please don't tell me we won't see QEiii. I hate to say it, but it doesn't look good for gold especially after JPM announced $2500/oz. I'm still buying, but volatility is not what I want in gold, and a collapse is not what I want for my country (UK). 

chartcruzer's picture

if any would like to monitor this in real time has the great debt bubble burst unfolds.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s224230059]&disp=P

the more interesting releationship is that of gold and the SPX

here's the relative peformance of the SPX to gold

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s240729620]&disp=P

DaBernank's picture

I will buy BAC at Family Dollar, for $0.99... ahhh who am I kidding, I'd rather watch a $1 bill burn.

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

This is a really tough one for the average sacred shitless Euro Dork who holds Gold & Euros earning decent interest & possibly Francs

Physical dollars may be a option as a European collapse hedge but they look like friggen toilet paper.

Escapeclaws's picture

This just goes to show that anyone can read charts and interpret them. This is as good as other chart interpretations out there. Distinctly better than that offered by the Smartknowlegeu.

Flakmeister's picture

CNBC just singalled a sell signal for gold....

Tuesday will be "Gold Rush" day....

Sell your calls or buy some cheap puts....

And No, I am not a troll

chistletoe's picture

nonsense.

 

There is a fourth possibility, which I believe is a whole lot more likely

than any of those three.

 

To quote a wise sage,,

"On a long enough timeline the survival rate of everything goes to zero ...."

narnia's picture

Promises made by governments or those dependent on them are worth ZERO.  Assets that are neutral or counter-productive to the quality of life of humans have only salvage value.  Assets that improve the quality of life of humans have REAL value.

The settlement of worthless promises and liquidation of the neutral or counter-productive assets are both going to happen.   

treemagnet's picture

Euro's gonna go humpdy dumpdy, and all the kings horses and all the kings men couldn't put 'er together again.  Dollar up hard temporarily and stocks take a header.  Theres my call.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The dollar is not going to rise concidering that not only does the Fed burn dollars for leverage, now the ECB is throwing Eurodollars into the fire.  The dollar is doomed.

Now that gold has hit resistance, Bernanke will sell (make his loans) and use the cash and leverage to issue QE 3.  Gold will go to support, and then the PPT will pump cash into equities, and monetize the debt.  Then next winter, the financial system spins it wheels once again.  Wash, rinse, repeat, until there is no more fiat from the taxpayers, and gold is at $10k.

Gold Chart from 99er's Blog:

http://content.screencast.com/users/a99er/folders/Test/media/f504ee09-ec...

Mugatu's picture

This quote is so stupid:

"Dollar Bears are assuming the USD will crash through support to new lows. That is certainly one possibility--but it can only happen if stocks rise (choice #1) or the see-saw breaks (#3)."

 

So he is saying that equity prices drive currency movements?  I know currency traders who never even look at equity prices all week - gee this guy must know some secret everyone else who trades currencies doesn't.    It is more the other way around - currencies move equities.  The tail does not wag the dog!

MrSteed's picture

An entire article without "cargo cult" or "simulcrum".  Sweet!

oogs66's picture

wasn't the 3rd possibility really 2 possibilities?