This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Guest Post: Storm Pennants Are Flying In Stocks And The Dollar

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

Storm Pennants Are Flying In Stocks and the Dollar

If we look only at charts and ignore the "news," we see storm pennants are flying in both the stock market and the U.S. dollar.

The stock market is wearing a T-shirt that reads, "I broke a downtrend and all I got was this lousy pennant." Having just returned from nine glorious days camping in Washington State, I have no idea what "news" has effected the markets ("news" in quotes because the news is managed for its PR effect--the real news is what has been suppressed lest it undermine the Status Quo's carefully cultivated propaganda campaign), and so I have marked up the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the U.S. dollar without the "benefit" of the news flow.

What pops out is a big fat pennant in both charts. Pennants can be continuation patterns--mere way points in a continuing up or down trend--or they can indicate points of trend reversals.

The key feature of a pennant is the compression of price into a narrowing channel, as the relative indecision of buyers and sellers alike causes price to fluctuate less and less.

At the apex of the pennant (note the triangle shape), the irresolution is resolved, usually in a big way up or down.

#404040;">


If we look at the indicators in the chart of the Dow Industrials (Indoos), we note that the oversold conditions have been worked off, and a very bullish divergence in the MACD indicator (and a positive cross in MACD) has yielded up a meager pennant rather than a clear breakout or trend reversal.

Even if you discount the "death cross" of the 50-day moving average (MA) dropping below the 200-day MA, a declining 50-day MA does not suggest a Bullish resolution to the pennant.

That intersection of the 50-day and 200-day MAs offers up a tempting target for market Bulls. What should worry Bulls is that these positive moves in the indicators have yielded up such modest results--a pennant that is a week or two away from a potentially major break up or down.

As for the dollar, the pennant may well be a sign of strength, as the Federal Reserve has been trying mightily to push the USD to a new low while propping up the euro at 1.44.

The basic reason is that a weakening dollar is the primary engine of U.S. corporate profits, as I explained in About Those Permanently Rising Corporate Profits... (August 12, 2011). If the Fed is unable to suppress the dollar via propping up the euro, then the entire stock market rally built on a falling dollar will collapse is a heap, shattering Wall Street's PR of permanently rising corporate profits.

#404040;">


As noted in that entry, the euro and the dollar (as measured by the DXY index of weighted currencies) are on a see-saw; if the euro breaks down as a result of the eurozone's irreversable structural dilemmas, then the dollar will strengthen and the Fed's master plan of pushing stocks up via a weakening dollar will have failed.

We have no idea how much treasure is being thrown into the fire to maintain the euro at 1.44 to the dollar, and that is the "news" which we must not be allowed to know, lest the extreme vulnerability of the eurozone financial Status Quo and the global rally were reflected in the foreign exchange and stock markets.

Being completely out of the news cycle is a blessing, in more ways than one: not only is one's mind untwisted by propaganda passing as "news," one is free to look at charts without the carefully designed biases implicit in the "news."

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sat, 08/27/2011 - 20:43 | Link to Comment spinone
spinone's picture

First

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:05 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

LOL! Tyler's headline is great. Tyler is pretty cool even though Noeil Roubini thinks Tyler is a douche.   If I were Tyler, I would bust that dirtbag Roubini's fvvking jaw.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:12 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Fight bitchez!!!

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:05 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Fight Club Bitchez!!!

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:31 | Link to Comment narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Well, since TD is at least three or more people, it wouldn't be a fair contest.

It would be just, mind you, just not fair.

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 02:57 | Link to Comment Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

One point the Roubini has highlighted which warrants attention in light of this post is that the Fed has engineered one of the most dangerous bubbles in history via the dollar carry trade.  

http://www.economonitor.com/nouriel/2009/11/01/mother-of-all-carry-trades-faces-an-inevitable-bust/

....the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash. The Fed and other policymakers seem unaware of the monster bubble they are creating. The longer they remain blind, the harder the markets will fall.

If the dollar does head substantially higher and the carry trade unwinds, the deflationary impact could be profound across all asset classes (including gold folks).

Maybe Hurricane Irene striking NYC is foreshadowing another kind of storm.

The "Fall" Is Approaching

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 04:36 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

This Roubini article nails it down to a T. The currency war and the risk asset levitation since that article was written in 2009 has increased even further. And yes gold is also now going bubbly.

So the gold bugs better look out. Fundamentals are important. The US economy fundamentals are the worst in the world. The USD reserve currency status will not save it from protecting the risk asset levitation and the USD carry trade all in the same breath.

Something has to give and its not just the Euro.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 04:43 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Top of the morning...

Naw... no bubble, not even close. Au keeps rising untill the equivalent of BW III...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 04:58 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

lol, to you too.. if you say so. I'm no trader myself but I have a feeling the big boys could manipulate it when they feel its in their interest. I don't know when that point will be reached. But fire away!

This guy Roubini feels like we may already be there. I don't know how much past history expressed in charts can predict irrational investment future patterns as the USD carry trade and derivative bubbles make the roller coaster very much "new irrational, green fields" territory. We are in places where we have never been in the asset risk investment cycle.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 05:11 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Irene's eye is about 80-100 miles due south... (not really an eye, more like an epicenter...)

Strange, so far like a good ol' fashioned Nor'easter, but the rain is warm...

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 05:16 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Hope you guys don't feel her scorpion's tail and its bite...take care NY!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 14:01 | Link to Comment janus
janus's picture

yes, falak, i believe there was just such a tail attached to camille (68' -- destroyed biloxi, then unleashed devistating flooding in the ohio valley, long after its winds had died.

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 08:31 | Link to Comment redstuffer
redstuffer's picture

18 months ago:

Roubini: I don't believe in gold. Gold can go up for only two reasons. [One is] inflation, and we are in a world where there are massive amounts of deflation because of a glut of capacity, and demand is weak, and there's slack in the labor markets with unemployment peeking above 10 percent in all the advanced economies. So there's no inflation, and there's not going to be for the time being.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 04:47 | Link to Comment e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

You fucking assholes are forgettting the first two rules of fight club.

Personally, I'm going to introduce these two latina strippers to the joys of Hayek.

and, I'm gonna quote Forrest Gump:

"Stupid is as stupid does."

Enjoy the hurricane, bitchez.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 14:09 | Link to Comment janus
janus's picture

we got some puerto rican girls that's just dyin to meet you.

 

but you do have a point: in the new age, stripping will be most difficult for young ladies accustomed to the easy-to-manage paper dollar...tiny silver dimes are a real bitch to corral in a dark bar littered with glittering flahes of light.  maybe they'll start to issue strippers-stickers that we can affix to our favorite fox...kinda like hello kitty, but with strippers.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:18 | Link to Comment erg
erg's picture

It sounds like a flying trapese troupe. The Flying Roubini's. Or a faded magician with calcified sleight-of-hand.

The Great Roubini coming to a community centre near you.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:40 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Roubini's problem is the same problem Wall Street has...they are ignoring the plight of main street. The Big R seems to want a big dose of stimulus …this repeatedly has shown to only keep banks alive..not main street. Debt has expanded at a 1:1 ratio (real GDP) until debt crossed over GDP. This clearly shows the Keys econ theory with high debt levels doesn't work.

Debt to Real GDP is now 110%

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 05:29 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Wasn't cash about 50% of the money supply when Keynes was around? These days it's about 2%.

...

Or was that only when he was done with the printing?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:47 | Link to Comment SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

spinone, you were first and that's all you had to say? disappointing...you could have at least said "First bitchez!"

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 09:03 | Link to Comment MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

If you trade Forex, you would know, that looking at the

same chart traders will have different outlook, so?

Post the charts and do not comment, cause it's useless.

As of now those charts are not bullish nor bearish.

Capisc?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Bob Paulson
Bob Paulson's picture

With the above charts, as is usually the case with Technical Analysis, half of the indicators are bullish and half are bearish.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 20:44 | Link to Comment spinone
spinone's picture

Second

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 20:48 | Link to Comment Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

you are so slow you can't even beat yourself.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:48 | Link to Comment caerus
caerus's picture

i'm pretty sure he beats himself

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 20:49 | Link to Comment Revolution_star...
Revolution_starts_now's picture

Even a broken window helps the glass man have some wealth
The multiplier driving higher the economy’s health

You know me, modesty, still I’m taking a bow
Say it loud, say it proud, we’re all Keynesians now

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 09:44 | Link to Comment harveywalbinger
Sat, 08/27/2011 - 20:51 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Are you seriously engaging in technical analysis in these structurally kablooey markets?

That was ever the arena of shills and conmen, selling crack stock to noobs, but to engage in it in the post-HFT digi-lemmings-uber-alles era is .... just a comment that maybe you should go back to your "camping."

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:06 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

...but Buffett said we should buy now.   Buy solid banks like Banco of America.  The bank for illegals.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:53 | Link to Comment Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

"The bank for illegals"

I wonder how much of the crap on their books comes from their dance with the illegal immigants, from credit cards to mortgages.

 

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:26 | Link to Comment The Piker
The Piker's picture

18%

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:51 | Link to Comment indygo55
indygo55's picture

That looks cheap to me!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 00:18 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Half of the shit Banco de Americana lent money for left for south of the border in probably a new pickup and trailer. The house was foreclosed on.  The illegal scammed that POS bank "real good." 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 11:56 | Link to Comment sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Yep, those auto loans went back to Mexico when the construction workers lost their jobs. So did the credit card debt and mortgages. Good luck collecting on those loans. 

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:43 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I'm not sure now that pomos have stopped.  That head and shoulders on the /ES sure worked out well.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 08:09 | Link to Comment Landrew
Landrew's picture

What you fail to realize, this chart is not only about market trading day to day, it is about the social mood of the country! The mood of the country is the direction we are going! The mood is not good, even at the top. The stock market reflects the mood first as you see the death spasms of a undulating plateau. When you look at the chart patterns preceding all the greatest market collapses you will see this pattern.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 20:50 | Link to Comment Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Do technical analysis and chart patterns even matter in this 'market'?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 00:12 | Link to Comment HAL 9000
HAL 9000's picture

Yes, technical analysis still works.

 

1) Buy value stocks with a margin of safety - on short term technical weakness.  Sell at Intrinsic Value - on short term strength.

      Works for Buffet and plenty of great value fund managers, will work until the end of the world.

2) Momentum works on non-corellated asset classes

      Works for Mebane Faber

3)  Buy into Weakness, Sell into Strength

      Works for Tom Demark (his Sequential indicator is outstanding)

      http://www.healthywealthywiseproject.com/Home/wealthy-blog/yesdemarksetu...

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 00:19 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Works real well until the fiat currency becomes worthless thanks to Obam loving scum like Buffett.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 00:45 | Link to Comment HAL 9000
HAL 9000's picture

#2 and 3 above put me 50% of portfolio in GLD/SLV/GDX (yes paper products, I know) thanks to #2 and 3 above. 

Like many here I'm a Ron Paul voting, Jim Rogers reading - Libertarian.  I just use a few TA systems to aid with portfolio construction.

Buffet may have faults but he's no scum.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 01:14 | Link to Comment mr66
mr66's picture

Buffett is a member of Augusta National golf club and also

The Cypress Point Club.  Check out the members yourself then make your determination. And for some strange reason he doesn't list his golf scores for handicap purposes with the United States Golf Assn.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 08:11 | Link to Comment Landrew
Landrew's picture

Buffett is scum, Warren Mr. Potter Buffett!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 10:25 | Link to Comment harveywalbinger
harveywalbinger's picture

If you are trading on TA patterns, you haven't yet figured out that you are inside the matrix.  By using these "tools" you effectively allow banks to make decisions regarding the distribution of your wealth on your behalf (the portion of after tax wealth you had thought was under your control...).

The global banking mafia direct the charts per a predefined buy/sell script (and the "market"can be moved whatever direction is desired).  Many a presumptuous jackpot pretends to be clever by using TA to read the tea leaves & unravel the message. This process is as scientific as alchemy (in fact, it IS alchemy if you are a banker).  One could compare our "market" to a poker game in which all other players at the table (of the money trust) are well coordinated in efforts to cheat you. 

TA is likely very useful in free markets. But, sadly, there are no free markets. Consider the possibility that the decoded message is a fiction.  Don't ignore TA.  Just beware.  You rely on the "tools" of TA at your own peril.

Kill the beast.  Choose to not participate.  Instead just buy physical.  

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 01:52 | Link to Comment whirlybird rules
whirlybird rules's picture

Works well for USD/EUR!  TD says the 1.44 level is all the Feds doing, but the PBoC and Merkel & co. are also players.  PBoC wants to bring the US down to its knees.  (Personally I think this type of war is much more rewarding than half of the shit we do in military projects.)  Merkel and the rest of the European leadership understand the importance of a strong Euro realtive to the dollar.  All levels of European society, from the bottom up, I mean the guy or woman with no education, knows how the Euro is doing against the dollar.  The European banking system is about to implode, but as long as the Euro is strong, the masses won't panic - yet. The strong Euro illusion worked for Greece up until about 3 weeks ago when the average citizen started withdrawing their money. Since these people do not have the capability to open up a Swiss franc bank account, they are literally stuffing the money in their mattresses! ...   side note- PBoC is starting to get nervous about the Euro promotion program.  Notice how about 2 months ago, Chinese leadership stopped banging the drum on a new world reserve currency?  You're hearing little squeeks from Chinese leadership for the first time warning the Europeans to fix their problems asap.  Next step, Chinese shift a percentage of their reserves back to USD. 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 06:55 | Link to Comment zoggl
zoggl's picture

TA is an instrument if you don´t have enough fundamental information. But if you have an Information like "BERNANKE SAYS EXTRA DAY TO ALLOW `FULLER DISCUSSION' OF TOOLS on Sept. 20", the expectation of QEn annoucement on the Sept. 20 will drive all assets higher which profit from money printing. So I don´t relay only on TA in this case. 

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 20:50 | Link to Comment Doug
Doug's picture

The only thing I ever learned about TA is that the more obvious the pattern, the LESS likely the expected outcome.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 20:51 | Link to Comment Galen Slade
Galen Slade's picture

You could trade on that - think about it....

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 20:55 | Link to Comment oobrien
oobrien's picture

I still see deflation.

After Europe shits the bed, the dollar is going to get a lot stronger.

But that's me.

What do I know?

http://geraldcelente.proboards.com

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:55 | Link to Comment gtb
gtb's picture

Perhaps you need your eyes/vision checked.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:28 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I think your right but I think the dollar will soar for all of a week or two before the printing turns the trend around. This 'most ugly' contest is matching up two real dogs. Dollar and Euro bitchez!

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:50 | Link to Comment SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

no, oobrien, the dollar may get stronger against the euro, if it still exists, but it's still gonna cost $20 for a happy meal...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 04:51 | Link to Comment e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

To answer your and cyberninja's question: not much.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 20:56 | Link to Comment Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Euroland will cave and devalue soon.  Japan already has.  IMO, the USD is due for a long rally.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:09 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  The ( usd) will hold the 74 handle. Relax (:

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:36 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

So what kind of behind the scenes manipulations are holding it there? It looks like the DXY is trying to compress that pennant into a single flatline at 74, one perfectly level line across the graph. I would have guessed the pennant formation that came to a head in July would have broken upward but it just wiggled into a new form. I don't see why they can't just do it again, and again, but what is it costing. How long can they keep it up?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 04:52 | Link to Comment e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Team Amerika, fuck yeah!

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:17 | Link to Comment Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

What the stock market is going to crash soon?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 20:56 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I love charts. Those ( Goldies) Charts were enlightening.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 20:59 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"We have no idea how much treasure is being thrown into the fire to maintain the euro at 1.44 to the dollar,..."

Of course the Fed is going to disclose how many fiascos are being tossed into the fire...as soon as Bloomberg (or some entity) initiates a new law suit against the Fed and the suit bounces around the courts for years before a decision is reached that the Fed must disclose that particular line item...and if the suit is not worded exactly right to ferret out the PARTICULAR line item, all is for naught...

How long did it take BBergs suit to disclose obscure Fed help (a gift) to banks in the amount of $1.2Trillion? Years!

Only this time the show will be over before any court ordered disclosure can be made.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:34 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Snidely, @20:59

IMHO, we (they) have crossed the line, and are again IMHO, Guilty of Treason, and should be brought to trial, and then before a firing squad.

1.2T, is real debt............that's the kind that kills nations.

The Fedtreserve is sposed to be in charge of the US fiscal policies,nowhere do I remember them being told they could use US as a bank for the WORLD.

 

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:43 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Agreed DZap... The linked central banks/world currencies backed by nothing experiment is coming to an end...

and we will suffer while the Keynesian azz hats that caused this debacle will skate...

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:03 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I agree with both of you, + 1.

The debts we see have no easy resolution.  No way out of the box, looks to be the same (worse?) in Europe.

I am plowing my way through Barron's, which has a Cover Story on which states are messing up the most.  All 50 apparentlly are rated.

I am considering adding a "Barron's Review" to my blog, to help save some of my readers $5.00 plus sales tax.  Barron's is sometimes worth the $5, sometimes not.  Snidley, if you're interested send me a gmail at my name for a link to my blog (as I write undr my own name).  Most of my readers come from ZH.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:09 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Thanks DCRB... I always follow your comments and will consider your offer...

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:52 | Link to Comment Kim Jong-Il
Kim Jong-Il's picture

I would welcome such a feature.  I can never see paying real (fiat) dollars for that fish wrapper. I normally spend some kind of airline points (first derivative fiat currency) for my subs, but lately have been too lazy to renew.

where do i find the blog?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:44 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

gmail me at my name above.  Try it, you'll figure it out!  I make everyone at ZH do this because I do not know you and the secretive nature around here...  But, everyone has welcomed my blog, except when I step into something and am wrong...  LOL.  I got some facts wrong in my "Guns for TEOTWAWKI" article and got (rightfully) pasted.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 13:23 | Link to Comment Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

We only paste ya' because we want you to have good shooting irons, DCRB.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:21 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Guillotines and confiscation = "easy" resolution.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:03 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Any one have a " Back Hoe"?  I want those ( MINI/ SPX servers)?...

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:08 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

TA matters SOMETIMES when others are using it too, but how does it even matter now with HFT and algos running everything. Those programs cand read ticks and headlines and react faster than anything. You can't oven a damn stock without a protective put because stop loss orders don't work in flash crashes.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:08 | Link to Comment oldmanagain
oldmanagain's picture

Dead on about stoploss orders.  That limits choices to stocks with active options.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:11 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Snidley/ wrong thread. You are  a financial planner.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:24 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I avoid tech analysis like the plague...

Uhhh... I have been accumulating gold since 1968... if that qualifies me as a 'financial planner' then I am guilty... :)

BTW... my PMs were lost in the rapids of the Colorado River while on a white water rafting trip... but I have disclosed the location to the feds and they are sending divers into the raging waters... no doubt they will meet with success...soon...

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:30 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 You avoid ( Technical analysis)?  Why on /

                                                                      G.O.D.S. green  earth would I trust you?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:35 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

T/A... the modern equivalent of voodoo... Why would I trust anyone that uses a tool that looks backwards in time? Do you drive forward using the rear view mirror on your vehicle?

Might as well examine goat entrails as use T/A...

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:45 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   Snidley, I appreciate your input. Thanks and keep it coming.

   I respect the fact that you want to learn, and  ( hopefully) help some FOLKS!    Best wishes

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:52 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Good luck troll... hope they are paying you enough for the humiliation you suffer... or, perhaps you are a banker and know not of humiliation?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:08 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Shitski, Snidley!  Those damn boating accidents...  Remind me NOT to carry my PMs next time I go fishing!  Something like that happened to me too.  I guess the right thing to do is to inform the Feds where it happened and, you know, do the right thing...  Pretty deep water though...

You started accumulating more than 10 years before I did.  Congratulations!  Although I AM sorry to hear about your loss of you PMs.  Maybe the Feds will give you some of it back...

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:12 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

lol... yeah, maybe the Feds will 'give me some of it back'... but I am not holding my breath...

The current in the rapids is very fast and the PMs have probably been widely dispersed and much buried in the thick silt of the Colorado...

I should have been more careful in that canoe... :)

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:05 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Paddling down the Colorado River with your PM's in a canoe.

Sounds like you were asking to lose them. Being smart enough to accumulate them kind of pales in contrast to the canoe fuck-up.

 

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:06 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Ah, nevermind. I get it. LOL I'm slow sometimes, but I come around eventually.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 06:58 | Link to Comment saulysw
saulysw's picture

Hahaha... (shakes head)

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:39 | Link to Comment Raphio
Raphio's picture

Psst.... you said rafting in that previous post.... ;-)

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:03 | Link to Comment indygo55
indygo55's picture

Thank you all so much. I had no idea the FED had a special department for that! They are truely amazing.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:14 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

as the Federal Reserve has been trying mightily to push the USD to a new low while propping up the euro at 1.44...

 

not saying this is bs but would have appreciated some examples. the fed's primary method of debauchery has been to drive rates down and funnel money into bank bonuses. they also help bail out euro banks, .guvs, etc., along with the imf, china, et al. I'm sure they mess with currency markets insofar as it benefits jpm etc., but I would like some evidence that they (the fed and not other entities) have a specific price target for the euro if such exists.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:15 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Negative! I trade currencies!

                                                 The tightening is upon us!

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:19 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Howdy Yen!

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:24 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Plus one! Thank You.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:35 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

back atcha!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 09:54 | Link to Comment ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Open the 1 day EUR/USD chart. Now also open your mind and reflect on the newsflow since early May. Add fundamentals and what you get is pure bullshit. I don't intend any disrespect for you, however I must say, how could one possibly miss the manipulation? It's as clear as a broken bone that the FED has been propping the EUR. The evidence is enough to convict. It's not so much a price target as it is a balancing act. The goal is more weighted to USD destruction than it is EUR support. The one requires the other though. The only good coming of it is that the game has become so damn obvious that it may actually hurt THEM rather than US in the long run.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:12 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

you know, i read all this BS on technical analyses this and technical anayses that, especially as it relates to the PM market.  I have to laugh.  How do you do TA on a corrupt, manipulated market that seems, these days, to be more politically driven than fundamentally driven by market forces.  The answer is you can't, except in a very general sense that the market is either strong or weak at a given moment.  Perhaps that is what the author is trying to say.  The problem is that a QE3 would change everything in a NY minute; or a nuke flying somewhere.  So TA based on fundamentals is worthless; interventions and hopium are the replacement.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:22 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Snidley and a/ infinity~ .  Let's have a discussion after a so/ho dinner?  relax gentleman and let's " TALK"?

         Cordially , YEN Cross

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:34 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i held this position until recently myself. lately i have given more credence to the dow theory.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:35 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

The Dow  theory/ slash  ( A buck of gold),

                                                                 1: 100 rule. ( Dow 1K/ xau 100)..

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:37 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

happiness is a warm bond. ;)

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:15 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

This is important enough to post again imo... posted by TD on 11-27-11... If it's too much, TD, take it down... If you are looking for 'something to trade on', or simply trying to save yourself from the economic grave yard, give this consideration...

"A Race In Opposite Directions:

 

How scary is it? The best illustration comes from the $US Gold price. The “price” of longer-term US Treasury debt has risen by 14.75 percent since the beginning of July. Over the same period, the $US price of Gold has risen from $US 1482 to its August 19 spot future close of $US 1852. That’s a rise of $US 370 or 25 percent. Yet US Treasury debt and Gold are polar opposites in any sane evaluation of the financial system. Treasury debt is the foundation of the global monetary system. Gold is the pariah of the global monetary system and has been locked out of it in any official form for four decades.

 

With all the comparisons to the events of 2008 which have been appearing in the mainstream financial media, this comparison has been all but totally overlooked. Cast your mind back to the carnage of late 2008. During that period, almost everything was sold off. While it is true that Gold did not fall nearly as far as did most of its fellow “commodities”, it is nonetheless a fact that in the two months between mid September and mid November 2008, Gold fell from about $US 920 to $US 700. That’s about 24 percent.

 

There were two financial assets which boomed in late 2008. One was Treasury debt, the other was the US Dollar. While Gold and everything else was falling out of bed, the trade-weighted US Dollar index - the USDX - soared 21 percent from 73 to 88.2 between early August and late November 2008.

 

Compare that to what is happening now. Treasuries are soaring but the US Dollar is, at best, flat. And Gold in terms of EVERY major paper currency has gone ballistic. This time, things do look different."

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:23 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 W/S I can cut /paste.  Do I ever?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:27 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"W/S I can cut /paste. Do I ever?"

I don't care what you do. I believe the objective is to make all aware of what each of us considers important...

cut/paste is aggragation of news... a common practice on the internet...

Is everything you post your original thoughts?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:38 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I like to help people...  You like to ( displace people) Am I right?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:45 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

You like to troll... enjoy... troll

You said you wanted a discussion and you start by attempting to place me in a box of your construction;ie, ...

"you like to displace people"

go fuck yourself, troll...

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:55 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Snidley you are pathetic! I have been Yen Cross / from my inception! You are one of the people we call " BAND WAGON"...

 

     Where are you licenced? Did you ever finish Law School?  You know " Nothing about "  Economics...  E! mail me in Singapore...

 

        Watch your back< YEN

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:02 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"Watch your back< YEN"

You are pathetic... you cannot win a debate with resorting to threats? lol...

Banker Scum!

Bring it, azz hat!

I have been here 1 yr, 37 wks... you have been here how long... 33 wks...

yet you claim I am jumping on the bandwagon? Typical troll lies... TROLL

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 00:32 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I was enjoying the back and forth between you two.  Until this:  "Where are you licensed...", and "...law school".   Sounds like two very good indicators of supporters of the status quo to me.   You coulda gone all day without that major gaff.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 03:26 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 You are correct " Rocky" The troll remark set me off. 16 hours out of Sydney.  I have a herd of G/C. That comment was uncalled for!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 01:25 | Link to Comment oldman
oldman's picture

 

Snidely,

Your rap sounds very familiar? Have we met?

I'm trying to not be paranoid, but you do sound familiar               om

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:52 | Link to Comment Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

"This time, things do look different."

I think your call is premature.  Give it a few more months for all the markets to start dropping in lock step ... like '08 - '09 (they all topped at different times then too).

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:00 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

11/27/11 is in the future, dude.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 08:44 | Link to Comment MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

"Over the same period, the $US price of Gold has risen from $US 1482 to its August 19 spot future close of $US 1852."

GOLD prices too volatile

and flying allover the map, today it's $1800, tomorrow $1900

then $1700. And It's overvalued by 30-40% at least by any

measures. Question for you. If any of those "printed" dollars

lay in your pockets? Or maybe your neighbor? You cannot have

sizable inflation while income actually flat or decreasing.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:20 | Link to Comment banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

On the Dow chart stochastic should say approaching OVERBOUGHT, not oversold. "minor" error.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:26 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Look @ COT charts / Futures.  You're Welcome.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 09:07 | Link to Comment MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

"OVERBOUGHT, not oversold. "minor" error."

It doesn't really matter, cause Market can stay overbought

or oversold longer than you can stay solvent...

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:34 | Link to Comment surferexx
surferexx's picture

DOW weekly chart is testing some support around 10.7k. Surprised this article didn't discuss that chart in addition to the daily

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:38 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

The Dow, like most equities mkts, is now dependent on daily injections of fiat from the Fed for it's very survival...

Chart that!

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:41 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

n Snidley?  What are credit default swaps? What is the art of ( Sterilization) When and who buys ( soverign bonds) in the ECU?

 

   Who makes those decisions? Do you know about month end flows?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:48 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

LOOK AT THE TROLL! OVER HERE! BUY SOME PEANUTS AND FEED THE TROLL... ONLY A FEW FIATSCOS FOR PEANUTS...

Sterilization isn't an art... it's a crime... troll

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:03 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Snidley you are clearly out of your league!  Pathetic you are.  Snidley what are the ( 3 ) prevailing rates/ excluding Libor?

 

 

      You are a JOKE>>>

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:13 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

The wannabe econ proff trying to put up a quiz on ZH...

Now that is a joke...

Get a grip, moron...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 00:41 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I gotta go with Snidely here, only because you're coming off as a smartass.   Throwing around your "knowledge" of markets is not all that becoming.   I don't have a lot of faith in those who push the market buttons and pull the levers of "commerce".   Come down to earth and put some friendly info into the discussion.  Leave the boasting for your bucket shop buddies.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 03:35 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Cabin fever!  Thanks for the input Rocky.  Snidely is clearly trading a different side of the market.

 

   I like you Rocky! I do NOT like snidely. I never will.  He is a wana be puke, that tries to use the misforgivings of others to prosper!  My legal team is looking into him.

 

     Best wishes , Yen

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Sucking up to Rocky? Good idea, you need all the friends you can get since you are a promoter of the status quo... which is failing miserably. Hey, there is nothing you can say here that will win ONE convert to the big banks, the Fed or this spinless gov. So you are being paid a TROLL salary for wasting time.

BTW, I like Rocky too... but don't like your TROLL azz worth a flit.

Post some more econ 101 quiz questions... lots of people are getting lots of laughs at your expense!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 09:56 | Link to Comment long_and_short
long_and_short's picture

Rocky,

Yen pushes nothing except paper at his desk in an admin position.  Comes out here trying to swing a big dick.  This is all to familiar.

LIBOR, EUROBOR, SHIBOR, yada yada yada, do not give credit where credit is certainly not due.  Further , for being so knowledgable and so highly educated he fucking misspelled LICENSED !!!!!

LOSER !!!

lives in a double wide and got kicked out of the upstairs school of business.  Online no less.

guys like that make Yahoo messdage board look good !

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:55 | Link to Comment Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Okay, so you don't like charts.  How about cycles and/or mean reversion?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:14 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

How about them?

Are you suggesting that others place their money at risk on your interpretation of goat entrails?

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 10:00 | Link to Comment long_and_short
long_and_short's picture

Snidley,

as much as I like how try to maintain decorum when being trolled, do not discount TA.

Hedge funds employ all tools to make cash including TA.  Ever heard of Demark indicators?

the other fact is so many employ TA that you can use it to rape them of their cash.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:49 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Hasn't Smith been bullsh the dollar are recent posts?  Don't google "doelarr" or nothin', bitchez.  But do buy silver.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:50 | Link to Comment firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

Any meaningful techincal analysis seems to suggest free and open markets are in control of the price.

The days of free and open markets have long passed, if the ever existed at all...

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:02 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

from wiki:

 

Dow believed that volume confirmed price trends. When prices move on low volume, there could be many different explanations why. An overly aggressive seller could be present for example. But when price movements are accompanied by high volume, Dow believed this represented the "true" market view. If many participants are active in a particular security, and the price moves significantly in one direction, Dow maintained that this was the direction in which the market anticipated continued movement. To him, it was a signal that a trend is developing...

 

the big volume moves have been down. if we don't go down from here dow theory is bullshit and you are correct to be cynical.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:05 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"Dow believed"  ... you could have stopped there...

Did Dow believe in robot traders? Quote stuffing? ... a gazillion bids sans an offer?

Anyone attempting to day trade this abortion deserves to lose their azz...

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:49 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I am not necessarily advocating ta or dow theory and have taken the same view as you plenty of times. My personal gripe with dt was when I read this years ago:

 

The first assumption is that the primary trend cannot be manipulated. In a widely followed liquid market such as a major stock index or a country's currency, manipulation over a long period is not possible. Even 100 years ago Dow and Hamilton felt that despite manipulations over the short term, major markets were too big to be controlled by anything other than the true underlying structure of supply and demand over the long term...

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/4616899 * I called bullshit on this back in 2007. Now I am wondering if Dow will finally have his day. Have you seen this chart?:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/8-19-11-Market-C...

 

 

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:06 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Snidley has no concept, of reactionary monitary movement!  +~ BUZZ

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:20 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Ahhh, grasshopper... but I do recognize an azz hole when one speaks up... and you're it, TROLL!

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:09 | Link to Comment Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Mean reversion is a bitch; just ask the Japanese.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:18 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"The first assumption is that the primary trend cannot be manipulated. In a widely followed liquid market such as a major stock index or a country's currency, manipulation over a long period is not possible."

Nothing is impossible... Especially if one has printing press and is desperate to save a failing system.

You continue to dig up quotes from a bygone era... a time when algos were not yet invented...

Perhaps you would like to discuss what is transpiring in mkts TODAY?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:29 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

That is an interesting chart.

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:40 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Poof? Black on White? You are pathetic!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 00:02 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

You need a new screen name desperately troll... you are the laughing stock here...

Try to get a grip... and remember...

gold has kicked the crap out of equities for the last 11 years and continues to do so!

...in case you have overlooked that fact!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 03:45 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Snidley? Really? I need a new screen name?

 

            Perhaps you should release yourself from ( gUMBYLAND)?   Do you have even the slightest concept of range trading?

 

      Do you even have the slightest concept of Alpha/Delta?    I'm a troll.  I travel 3 weeks out of the month, come back to the States and listen to your { Petulant Diatribe}?  You my nefarious friend need an attitude adjustment!

 

      You are the consumate TROLL> You knat on the ass of humanity!?(:

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 09:42 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

LOL... Hey TROLL... Do you drive around town with that bag over your head?

I hope so, for you will be saving many from eye sores...

A TROLL driving around in a Mercedes with bag on head... Can you post a pic?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 21:52 | Link to Comment IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

so does PPT continue to prop up the market on monday?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:27 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"so does PPT continue to prop up the market on monday?"

The Fed has thrown a gazillion fiascos into propping up the equities...

Do they want to cut their losses and let the mkt collapse to the level it would be in a free mkt?

Do they want to continue to charade?

Make a choice and bet accordingly ... if you are compelled to do so ...

Alternatively, you can bet on PMs ...

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:51 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

PPT? you living in " Alice in Wonder Land"?

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:36 | Link to Comment The Piker
The Piker's picture

Personally. This is brilliant in its simplicity.

PERIOD!

 

If you cant interpret this properly. Good luck. In the markets anyway.

 

Rest I dont care 

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:42 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

As Corporations hoard monies on the taxpayer back and continue to downsize to payoff investors. I find it funny. The smart money cuts back spending & the unemployed can't afford to buy corporate products. The end result, tax revenues cannot be met to meet budget projections.  

Corporations have to either outsource services or close domestic divisions to meet lofty expectations. As unemployment climbs and sales drop, monthly corporate cash burn ensues.

 

Someone within the Bilderberg group needs to contact 'Chainsaw Al' Dunlap' to help destroy all small Corporations by creating a monopoly thru M&A. Antitrust laws no longer exist in this country. The MSM continues to spin free market capitalism bullshit.

 

This planned clusterfuck is not a myth. We're the second phase in City of London plans. So they think. LOL

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:47 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Let's challenge Snidley. My legal team wants to play. You up for it Snidley?  OOPS forgot an ( L)...

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 22:57 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Snidley ? what are ( Yield curves)? Snidley what / and are cds/ swaps (vs) overnight  swaps?

 

     You are ignorant!  Do you know how to ( Sterilize Flow)?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 00:46 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

WHAT are you trying to prove?   The usually sedate coon is becoming annoyed.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 01:52 | Link to Comment oldman
oldman's picture

"The usually sedate coon is becoming annoyed."

Ummmmm!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 03:47 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

What Rocky I don't fit in your MOLD!? I can't have an opinion?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 13:26 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The only opinion you've expressed is that Snidley is not a good person.   How does that advance discussion of the article at hand?   Asking what some terms of art mean of the people who do not trade amongst the exact bucket shops that you do is not an opinion.  Your "legal team is looking into..."  [eye rolls]

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:09 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  No  One ( FUCKS  WITH BUZZ)   Yen...

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:24 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I will fuck with you, moron TROLL...

What happened... your physical threat above didn't shut me up? So you are trying a econ 101 quiz... you are hilarious, TROLL...

How is the wx in Singapore...lol

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 23:26 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Sick puppy, you are... Physical threat didn't work so you are trying an econ 101 quiz? lol

"no one fucks with Buzz"?

Wrong azz hat... I am fucking with you and will continue to stuff you T/A up your dumb azz...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!