Guest Post: Super Complacency Means Printing Will Commence Post-Election

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Vincent Lanci of FMX Connect

Super Complacency Means Printing Will Commence Post-Election

image

We believe that the Super Commitee’s lack of action portends for inaction by our government until the 2012 election is concluded. We also believe, that no matter who wins the printing presses are gearing up.

Super Duper Committee Needed

The United States is in a morass of political indecision that is hampering our ability to let the right idea bubble to the surface. Yesterday’s failure of the much vaunted SuperCommittee to do anything, a structure empowered to do what is needed to solve the deadlock, has underlined the effect of political indecision as the primary  driver behind why we are where we are today. As crazy and inappropriate as it was to downgrade the U.S. partially on the basis of political gridlock…. It was true.

Hippies with Brains

Those “Occupy” people out there are right; it is the politicians themselves and the prioritizing of their job retention over their responsibility to their constituents that is preventing the right decision to be made. We do not claim to know what the right decision is, but we do expect them to know. All we can do is offer a decision tree to readers of what we think will happen and why it will occur in this fashion.

image

What Happens Next

There are two scenarios we are looking at though a political prism. Our conclusions are digital. First of all and of major importance , we believe it is in the GOPs interest to have the economy be in its worst shape possible going into the election. It is their method to be the party of no to Obama’s ideas. And it is their method to be the party of “tax cuts” to actual suggestions. This is essentially what came out of the Super Committee. The GOP wanted tax cuts, the Dems did not. Thus deadlock continues.

Therefore nothing will happen until post election. And post election, the dollar will get decimated. Post election will create an environment wherein risk assets rise again. There will be Good Inflation (Stocks, Stocks, and more Stocks) and bad inflation (oil, gold and grains). Wall Street wins as fees from the never ending asset ping pong makes investors migrate their holdings from one class to another. Remember those Golden Crumbs that fall off the bonds when they are sold, from Bonfire of the Vanities?

The FMX Economic-Politic Answer Key for 2012

image

 
From the above you can see, it is not in the GOP’s best interest to agree to anything that doesn’t include their most cherished ideal: a reduction in Taxes. It enhances their chance of victory in 2012. It is not in the Dem’s interest to agree to Tax Cuts on principle and as a de-motivator for its voting base.

Nothing will get done. We will continue to kick the can up an increasingly taller hill, is a Sisyphean effort to fix the problem. Meanwhile the Europeans are playing shell games with their own debt. And it is this which jeopardizes our decision tree analysis and the conclusion to buy ‘risk on” assets as we come closer to election time.

Europe as Spoil Sport

Right now, European situation can be described as Germany (Printing, NEIN!), versus the rest of Europe (Printing OUI!). Currently the deflationary/sovereign issues plaguing the Euro have given Bernanke an opportunity to open a window to print more Dollars as the Fed lends to Euro banks. So while Euroland fights it out, Ben takes the opportunity to get ahead in the currency race to the bottom.

It would seem based on the fight, that the answer is print or not print. We think Germany is playing brinksmanship and will print. But we are concerned with a scenario talked about but not given enough attention; the removal of countries from the Euro. Every country that leaves the Euro is deflationary. The bigger the economy expelled, the stronger the Euro gets. This happens while simultaneously the country expelled experiences inflation or even hyperinflation on the Scale that Argentina experienced 12 years ago. So because of a redrawing of nationalistic boundaries, Germany cannot sell anything to its weaker sisters, due to a combination of its own currencies strength, and the expelled country’s lack of purchasing power due to rampant currency debasement.

This nightmare messes up our pretty little decision tree, but it is possible. The U.S. would be dragged into a global deflationary spiral, where more and more money is printed, but less and less is spent.

You would see ever tighter economic ties between Russia and Germany, and the U.K with the U.S. as the Asia becomes a wild card of domestic issues.

We’re buying physical assets on dips and selling stocks on rallies, essentially the Rogers position at levels far worse than his, but we believe having a long way to go. Gold is among those assets.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
slaughterer's picture

Biggs as contrarian indicator:  go long now!

 

Barton Biggs, the hedge fund manager who bought stocks when the market bottomed in 2009, cut bullish bets on equities amid concern the odds of recession have increased. Biggs said the chance of a recession during the first half of 2012 has risen to between 60 percent and 70 percent. (Source: Bloomberg)

CharlieSDT's picture

Those dickwads are going to take turns finger-pointing at each other while the world burns.  They just couldn't figure out how to steal just a little less of our money.

 

The assholes running this country (Republicans, Democrats, it’s all the same, really) have absolutely no qualms spending trillions of other people’s money. They’re not just spending our money, they’re bankrupting our children and our children’s children by consigning them to loans insuring that they will live in debt slavery from the cradle to the grave. The politicians don’t care, they’ll be long gone by then and their children and children’s children will be sitting pretty on the wealth that their parents and grandparents are stealing from you right now.

 

Let’s do a little game, and figure out how much of our money that they waste. Based on 112 million taxpayers, here’s some of their favorite ways to waste the money they steal from you:

 

http://www.singledudetravel.com/2011/11/american-scamocracy/

TruthInSunshine's picture

Fractional Reserve Bankster University has decided to add a mandatory course for all incoming freshman, seeking to tie economics and existential philosophy together.

The course is entitled:

 

I print, therefore I am [J'imprime, donc je suis]; Econometric Philosophy Through Descartes Eyes 101.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

If the market keeps on like this, they won't make it to the 2012 election.  The Republicans won't hold out, because they know they are not going to win.  They cannot stand stock market pain.  Printing to commence in 2Q 2012.  All hail Obama.

Zero Govt's picture

the Republicans will win ...but it won't make a jot of difference

the voting system is a sham, the politicians are a sham, the Partys are a sham and the US Govt is a sham.. you'll get no change out of that rotten fruitcake machine

the only vote worth casting, the only political policy you can action, is to stop paying your taxes

Govt budget cut immediate. Tax cut immediate. Democracy immediate. Satisfaction Priceless

Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Point of contention:

Since 1970 the average marginal rate has dropped dramatically, and yet the individual receipts to the Government show a nearly flat rate. THERE IS NO CORRELATION AT ALL!!! 

So the author's assertion that the GOP would need to print to cover lost revenue is not supported by the realities of recent history.

http://www.heritage.org/BudgetChartbook/current-tax-receipts

http://www.heritage.org/BudgetChartbook/income-tax-receipts

 

James-Morrison's picture

I believe they will make a deal.

You have to connect the dots. 

1) Drive market down on poor news.

2) Buy the market.

3) Announce "surprise" deal.  Cash out on the pop.  

4) Immunity from inside trading -- and a great year end bonus for our two-headed government.  

SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Too many dicks on the dancefloor. 

twotraps's picture

really well said, they have no skin in the game and no real negative consequences for their actions.  I am seriously wondering if I am nuts to have been expecting a violent re-pricing of Everything........you reall can't mess with Mother Nature indefinitely.  World-wide MF scenarios playing out everywhere.

Josh Randall's picture

No opium unless the junkies vote for it

Hondo's picture

Printing will be a diaster.  It will do nothing except maybe rise commodities or household cost and will not create jobs or raise real incomes.......the next step is revolution and the election of the next Hitler.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

Perhaps in their total confusion the Republicans turn to ........ David Howell Petraeus.

economics1996's picture

Laffer curve, anyone hear of it?

poopoo78's picture

everybody except Vincent Lanci, whoever the F that is.  

Zero Govt's picture

 

What do you mean the "Super Committees lack of action" ????

Peloski-Trotski et al donned capes and spandex tights and called themselves "Super"

Is a costume change and 'slightly' over-leveraging the English language (by a Fed junk factor of 50:1) to describe their super inflated egos of their committee compared to their total in-capacity to perform not enough action for you guys!

a costume change and branding themselves "Super" ...that's hard work for a politician 

Apparently Fancy Dress Rental Inc Corp DC., is not taking Peloski-Trotskis SuperWoman costume back ...she's dribbled "I'm going to save $4 Trillion" down the spandex and its not possible to dry-clean concentrated bullshit off 

Ghordius's picture

Please, could you call our EU Committees "Super", too?

Yanks get all the hottest toys and all the SuperHeros - and look how drab our leaders are... :-(

At least Berlusconi was well dressed and had hot company...

Zero Govt's picture

Berlusconi is the last piece of talent (ok talent spotter!) in Brussels... it's all dreary bankrupts from Goldman Sucks "top brained" staff from now doing "Gods Work" plundering nation States

'The Lord Works in Mysterious Ways'... Lloyd Blankfeins 'fuk-em-over' methology is anything but a mystery

..fleecing markets, clients, pension funds, sovereign funds and now whole countries

got to keep Sucks tanking turnover and profits up somehow.. asset stripping here we come... much Gold in Italy?

Bicycle Repairman's picture

You Euros do not need committees of any kind.  You are wise enough to let GS hand-pick your "leaders".

NotApplicable's picture

Yeah, good thing they don't do that in the US.

Zero Govt's picture

Yeah, JP Morgan cornered that side of the Pond

MFL8240's picture

This may well be the worst written, worst thought out piece I have yet to read on 0 hedge.  

 

One final comment regarding this statement, "we believe it is in the GOPs interest to have the economy be in its worst shape possible going into the election."   

 

DO NOT BLAME THE GOP FOR THIS ECONOMY, YOUR FUCKING PARTY RAN BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS AND THE WHITE HOUSE FOR 2 YEARS AND DEBT INCREASED BY 41% AND NOTHING POSITIVE WAS DONE.

Money 4 Nothing's picture

Two wings of the same bird, don't get it twisted. Don't listen to what they say, look how they vote lock step.

NotApplicable's picture

Just think how scary it would all be if they actually voted as they spoke... then unspoke... then respoke... then deny they ever said a word. Eraser sales would save the economy.

buyingsterling's picture

WRONG.

The false left/right paradigm is usually misunderstood. The point is not that there aren't philosophical differences, there are, and they often manifest in policy. The point is that the system is controlled, so the outcome is predictable. The point is that democrats and republicans will not 'save us' or even consistently act in our interests. That doesn't mean you shouldn't vote out of self-protection, nor does it mean that it doesn't matter if you vote for left or right.

Saying that there is no meaningful difference between the parties is right only in the end, when things fall apart: neither will prevent that, so we ought not invest our emotional energy in their game (with odd exceptions such as the Pauls). A clinical eye should be used to determine which people will do the least damage to your family. On the way to the end, the leftists will be busy fondling your genitals everywhere, forcing you to spend an average of $30000 on home improvements before you are allowed to sell your house (after government inspection by inspectors populating a brand new bureaucracy in every town of any size), forcing you to support ever-increasing levels of debt to support their army of supporters, teaching 5 year olds sex ed, beefing up their armies of looters and leeches, etc. All things they do or tried to do, not to mention Obama'care'. And remember it was Obama that lied and said our military is desperate for an internal police force just as large and powerful as our regular military. All of his fucknut supporters think that's just dandy, and three years later we have TSA agents stopping cars on the highway, while the border lies wide open, the fence abandoned. Want millions more poor, unskilled, non-English-speaking people here? You know how they vote, so you know who will keep the spigots open.

The incorrect understanding of the false left/right paradigm is a tool leftists use to excuse the fact that few people actually like sociopathic control freaks. There's a reason Ron Paul is not a democrat - almost to a man, the democrats disagree with him on everything.

Money 4 Nothing's picture

No I'm not wrong! Your watching pandering, theatrics and skillfull manipulation of public opinion, IT IS ALL A GAME IF BOTH SIDES VOTE THE SAME WAY AT THE END OF THE DAY.

 Go look up who voted to reinstate the Patriot Act after there were Congressman and Senators swearing up and down to kill the sunset clause, and they voted it back up.

They are highly paid public actors, the Stupid Commitee is proof that you can deadlock Dems and Repubs because they probably agreed that it's better to do nothing than do something not popular at this point like, cut spending budgets. Cutting budgets dosen't get you election votes. I have worked on 2 Election Campaigns and you hear the back stage coaching and prep secrets, it's all Bullshit, but it get's votes.

I agree, Idology may play a role in the public perception side of the fence, but not in the professional politics arena, example, Rick Perry used to be a Democrat not too long ago, hell.. Ronald Regan was a Democrat at one time. Repubs flip to Dem and vice versa, I have never flipped my affiliation.. ever, I just stopped voting. They don't care what team they are representing as long as the bigger picture agenda is met and the popular votes come flooding in.

 

Here are our 2 options.

1. Print

2. Go to war, or both in that order.  

 

When TPTB are out of Ideas, they take you to war, true story.

Jim in MN's picture

I agree it doesn't make much sense, but there have been worse articles.  Just my opinion.

 

For my money, the Reagan nutjobs got things going (Gucci Gulch), the Pinstripe Democrats under Clinton made it infinitely worse (Rubin, Summers et al--traitors working for Goldman), and it's just gone down the tubes exponentially since.

 

Just take a Dow chart, put in on a linear scale (not logarithmic) and LOOK at it.  Pretty obvious.  One kink early 80s, another mid 90s, then...heart attack city. 

 

These assholes on both 'parties' broke the damn thing.  The thing we call capitalism, the thing that keeps us alive. 

 

Neither Eisenhower nor Truman would have countenanced such treason and economic suicide.

el Gallinazo's picture

Both of the treasonous parties take their orders from the Owners.  If they are instructed to fall on their swords before the election to assist the Owners, they will.  This Republican / Democrat theatre is just so much distraction bullshit.  Everyone should wake up that it is just a diversion to destroy what remains of the Republic.  I am not a dyed in the wool libertarian, but Ron Paul is the only one who the Owners don't have their collective fist up his ass.  But they would kill him before they would allow him to be elected.

Jim in MN's picture

http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2009/07/dow-chart-dating-back-to-192...

Like the first chart on this blog post.  See the change in trend?  And the other change in trend?  The rules were being thrown out, the losses socialized, the gains oligarchilized, the whole shooting match sociopathicialized.

It's all in the market...blowup and haywire.  Death by bipartisan corruption.

PD Quig's picture

"It is their method to be the party of no to Obama’s ideas."

WTF?!

What ideas would those be? Perpetuate GW Bush's policies, both foreign and domestic? Raise spending to new heights of absurdity? Run the most openly corrupt, corporatist pig slop trough feed ever?

The guy has NO ideas. The guy has NO clue. Ideas? This author is out of his fucking mind.

madbuilder's picture

every time i hear a partisan attack on this site it makes me woefully pessimistic.  i would think that the readers here are smart enough to see some fundemental truths about who our illustrious 'representatives' represent. 

NotApplicable's picture

Sounds like you need to drink more. ;-)

Shizzmoney's picture

Whoa, caps much?

And I agree with the author's point.  And he wasn't saying it to defend Obama/Dems.  He was saying it as this is the obvious path to political greatness for the GOP (and it is!).

If the economy does well, Obama is in and by a landslide.  If it sucks, then it's a 50/50 race, even if he ran against Lucifer.  Look at what happened to Bush v Clinton in 1992 - Bush lied and raised taxes b/c the economy, like now, was in the shitter.  He went on to lose the race.  The GOP strategists took notice. 

That's the problem with politics and politicans today: their strategies are based around helping themselves stay elected, but not helping people.  But I don't blame the strategists and hte pols who listen to them, because the strategists are paid to win elections, not write policy.  And of course, nevermidn the stakes involved with corporate lobbyists who hang on to their precious welfare.

It's the system, stupid. 

Vergeltung's picture

MFL, I thought the same thing.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

Then lets just put it this way:  the GOP doesn't want Obama buying votes with expensive, temporary make-work jobs.

NotApplicable's picture

That's a helluva "Faithful Party Loyalist" button on your chest, there. I hear those things are bad for your blood pressure, especially when pressed by an enemy "Faithful Party Loyalist."

Meanwhile, the elites score another victory in the divide and conquer game called, "Let's you and him fight!"

Ballot box, or battle box? So, just what is it that you're voting for, again?

Money 4 Nothing's picture

Ink

Paper

 

Bullish.

tsx500's picture

RON PAUL / KYLE BASS  2012  !

Zero Govt's picture

Stop Paying Your Taxes ...1,000x more effective than voting..

...you get to stop sponsoring illegal wars, corruption and Barny Frank and keep your Tax... Bingo! ..it's a Win-Win-Win

Zero Tax = Zero Govt 

Dr. Richard Head's picture

I draw mine out no.  Always file for extension, which means I have to file the Fed taxes in mid-October.  I have ZERO withheld from my checks for the Feds and will always owe them some money.  When I send in my return in October, I never send the money due - wait for them to bill me, and then place it on one of their payment plans.  Rinse and repeat.  Hoepfully those fucks won't be around come 2013 and I can stop the game.  If not, the next step will be to stop filing all together.  Fuck the consequnces. 

vegas's picture

Can a group of elites fuck up anything more than they already have? I swear, if a group of retarded third-graders were running things, how could it be worse?

Print fellas, print - it's your only option now.

 

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

SWRichmond's picture

Will we make it to the election?

 

Bloomberg:  Congress Will Undo Defense Cuts, Sessions Says

slaughterer's picture

The Dems won this round: the sequestration automatic cuts is their target deal.   Nothing like this comes without a price: Obama has been sacrificed.  Obama will need to enforce these automatic cuts, which makes him look odious to the average citizen.   No Obama next election.  

Spastica Rex's picture

And no automatic cuts. Do you really think there was a winner here, other than the banks?

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Exactly right.  Turns out the immediate cuts would not transpire until 2013.  http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2978/absolute-farce

Bicycle Repairman's picture

Automatic cuts?!?!?!?!?

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!

I guess there will be no tinkering with the automatic freaking cuts.  I can just hear politicians now:  "The machine did it.  My hands were tied"

Actually I can't hear it, because it is never going to happen.

NotApplicable's picture

*reminds Rex about lifetime Congressional pensions*