Guest Post: There Will Never Be A Failed US Treasury Auction... Until There Is

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Brian Rogers

There Will Never Be A Failed US Treasury Auction... Until There Is

 

"The antidote to hubris, to overweening pride, is irony, that capacity to discover and systematize ideas.  Or, as Emerson insisted, the development of consciousness, consciousness, consciousness." 

-Ralph Ellison

"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

-Charles Mackay

 

Asymmetric Trades

One thing I've learned from my 14 years of working on Wall Street is that no matter how much you think you know, no matter how certain you are of something or how well you know how to "play the game," reality inevitably comes along and shows you just how ignorant you were, are and probably always will be.

It can be a very humbling business no matter who you are.  And if you're in it long enough and doing anything of any relevance whatsoever, you too will one day eat a big heaping helping of humble pie.

Just look at some of the modern investing "legends" or "masters of the universe" littering the side of the road with sub-index returns and below high-water mark funds.

But one thing to look for that can and often does lead to outsized returns is when everyone in the market is "certain" of something.  This is when risk/return profiles can get really interesting because the payoff starts to get asymmetric.  Kyle Bass talks about this kind of payoff in the trades he looks for.

Regardless if you agree or disagree with the thing that everyone is "certain" of, if you can spot an argument like this where nearly everyone has piled on to one side of the boat, you should do some homework because this is usually precisely the thing that can cause assets and even entire markets to make big moves.

A good example of this is the recent collapse of the US housing market and the associated collapse of mortgage-related securities.

"We've never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis."

As a former mortgage and CDO salesman at a TBTF (forgive me Father, for I have sinned), I had a front row seat to watch not only what was happening in the industry but also the overwhelmingly prevalent attitude that investors had about the asset class at the time.

The Bernank summed things up nicely in July, 2005 when he said, "We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though."

Now I love to give our monetary fiat ponzi central planner in chief as much grief as the next critical thinking monkey, but his statement above absolutely reflected the prevailing attitude of almost every major market participant at the time.  Yours truly included.

To be fair, not everyone shared this view.  I sat a few dozen feet away from Greg Lippmann in late 2005 and still kick myself for not grabbing one of the t-shirts he had printed up sitting in a box near his desk that said simply, "I'm short your house."

But aside from Greg and a few other out-of-consensus thinkers, nearly everyone and their brother agreed with the Bernank.  Strongly agreed.  And here was your asymmetric opportunity.  Everybody believing thast something simply cannot happen or will continue to happen in a particular way.  Has never happened, will not happen, will not change.  Next question.

Of course, if it does happen, things will got to hell in a handbasket, but don't you worry your pretty little head about that, it will not happen.  Everyone says so. 

This allowed nearly the entire financial world to be as calm as Hindu cows while watching underwriting standards for mortgages collapse to an almost  meaningless level.  Before the party ended, most of the major mortgage underwriters got comfortable with >100% LTV second liens by thinking of them as "bridge loans" meaning house prices were rising so surely and regularly, they believed the second lien would be paid off by the increase in the underlying property value when the owner flipped the place for a nice profit.  Uhh, yea. 

Authors note: for those curious, the answer is no, I did not predict the collapse of housing despite my place at the table.  Like most others around me, I had been drinking giant gulps of Kool-Aid.  I have since gone on a massive Kool-Aid 12-step program.  In fact, realizing how economically and politically naïve I was has been one of the critical turning points in my life.  Recognizing, acknowledging and dealing with my own cognitive dissonance has been nothing short of a journey towards personal enlightment.  I wonder if the Bernank could ever admit to something like this?  I highly doubt it, even though we'd all be better off if he did.  Personally, I think the Bernank's marquee spot in the Havenstein Museum of Failed Central Bankers is all but guaranteed at this point.  But I digress...

Regardless of your view on housing or knowledege of mortgage securities, if you had recognized that everyone was sitting on one side of the boat, you would have found the trade of the 00s.

Which brings me to the US Treasury market.

US Treasury Market Exceptionalism

Paul McCulley and Zoltan Pozsar presented a paper at the Banque of France on March 26 where they address "critical questions which are not currently being addressed by policymakers."  The FT reported on this a few days ago (link here).

Having worked with Paul McCulley for a few years in the early 00s, I can say without reservation that he is one of the smartest, nicest, funniest, most genuine people I have ever met.  Not just in the markets, but in life in general.  Despite the fact that I rarely agree with his economic views, Paul is, quite simply said, a great guy and true gentleman.

However, nice guy accolades aside, McCulley expresses a view in his paper that completely sums up the key assumption on which the entire global financial fiat ponzi system hinges.  Namely, the casual assumption that there will never be a failed US Treasury auction or even reason to fear rising US rates.

McCulley and Pozsar express the following view when attempting to dismiss hand-wringing over rising US Treasury rates or a failed US Treasury auction:

"Crowding out, overheating and rising interest rates are also not likely to be a problem as there is no competition for funds from the private sector. For evidence, look no further than the impact of government borrowing on long-term interest rates in the U.S. during the Great Depression, or more recently, Japan. A buyers’ strike is also unlikely, especially in the case of the U.S. This is because countries with mercantilist policies tied to the U.S. dollar are de facto piggybacking on the U.S.’s internal demand, and simply have no option but to continue to accumulate U.S. Treasuries to moderate the real appreciation of their exchange rates so as to hold their shares of U.S. demand."

I'm not going to go into a big discussion here about Modern Monetary Theory, the Great Depression or Japan.  For starters, that's not the theme of this article but more to the point, I have no clue what's going to happen next regarding interest rates in the US or any other country.  Despite what information may or may not be gleaned from previous events, we are absolutely in unchartered territory from an economic and geo-political perspective.  In other words, no one really knows what's going to happen next.

And that's exactly the point.  Neither I nor any other person on the face of the planet knows exactly what's going to happen to interest rates in the next 2 seconds, let alone 2 months or 2 years.  So much is happening and changing at such a rapid pace, thinking that anything will "never" or "always" happen strikes me as pure, unadulterated hubris.  The madness of crowds.

And yet, everything in modern finance hinges on the assumption that US rates will remain low and buyers plentiful enough to dilute and mask the Fed's own forced buying.  Essentially, the entire market is betting that the Fed will always and forever be able to manipulate Treasury rates and ensure successful Treasury auctions.  Jim Quinn talked about this in one of his latest posts, "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet - Part 3" (link here).

TPTB are absolutely all-in on this concept.  It underlines the "confidence" the Bernank always talks about.  It ensures the current political-economy (credit to Martin Armstrong for that phrase) lives another day and our current crop of bought-and-paid-for politicians can keep feeding at the government trough. 

Sound a bit asymmetric?  You bet it does.

Will Atlas Shrug?

Think about that. 

Do you think the US will always and forever be able to pay for our over-bloated military-industrial complex and our wars of choice? 

Do you think the federal housing agencies will always and forever be able to subsidize the real estate industry with money losing, non-economic mortgage loans?

Do you think the government will always and forever be able to pay on the promises they've made regarding Social Security, Medicare and Medicade?

Do you think the government will always and forever be able to extend debt-enslaving, subsidized student loans to anyone with a pulse?

Do you think the fiat ponzi central planners at the Fed will always and forever be able to manipulate the Treasury curve to whatever levels the Oracles of Delphi decide?

If you answer yes to the above, ask yourself this: how would all of these things be affected if the average interest rate paid by the US was to rise to 5%?  At today's debt level of $15.6 trillion, the interest expense would be approximately $780 billion or about 35% of total government revenues.  Welcome to the United States of Greece.  Next stop, bankruptcy.

Housing will collapse as mortgage rates approach 8%.  Every aspect of federal, state and local government spending will have to be slashed.  Police, fire, schools, medical services, mail delivery, trash delivery, road maintenance and every other kind of social service will be cut dramatically as capital is diverted to pay interest on our debt.

And these sudden rate rises can happen brutally fast in our uber-connected global ponzi.  Just ask Italy.  4% rates and it was bunga bunga time.  Rates jump to 7% a few months later and suddenly the Vampire Squid has to send in one of their own to "save" the day.  You get the idea.

I think it's no exaggeration at all to say that keeping US rates low, ZIRP low, for the foreseeable future (ie, forever) is key to maintaining the semblance of stability in the current global fiat ponzi.  Nearly every major financial player on the planet is counting on this being an a priori piece of knowledge.

And there's your trade.  Everyone is betting on this one idea -  that the Fed will never lose control of interest rates and the US Treasury will never have a failed auction.  The same way nearly every major financial player on the planet was willing to bet that US real estate could never fall for an extended period of time. 

And we all know how that trade worked out.

Timing, please?

Of course, the big question for most Zero Hege readers is not if this will happen, but when. 

Who knows?  Not me.  Not Paul McCulley.  Not the Bernank.  Not Timmy G.  Not any financial pundit or TBTF economist.  No one knows.

These abnormal, asymmetric situations have a tendency to go on longer than anyone suspects. 

I recall hearing in 2009 that legendary hedge fund investor Julian Robertson was making a big bet on a Treasury steepener trade (essentially a bet that longer-term interest rates will rise more than short-term rates).  I completely agreed with him.  And at least in the short run, we have both been more or less wrong.  Again, this business can be humbling.

But eventually, just like the guys who bet against housing in 2005, 2006 and 2007, eventually I think Mr. Robertson will be proven right.  Big time right.

And TPTB, the Bernank, TBTF, market consensus and everyone long 30-year Treasuries, wrong.  Completely wrong.

There will never be a failed US Treasury auction.  Until there is.

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Sat, 04/07/2012 - 13:01 | 2324596 oogs66
oogs66's picture

the market gets complacent too often, too easily

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 13:08 | 2324616 phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

Eagerly awaiting the day we see a failed US Treasury auction... 

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 13:18 | 2324633 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

Bernanke is not perfect; he's yet to become the master that Greenspan was and is. Greenspan threw the economy forward in ways no one thought possible, aggressively creating booms in sector after sector: tech stocks, the financials, commodities, housing. Bernanke seems to be doing a decent job this year with the stock market, but clearly he can benefit from Greenspans wizardry. Another great mind is Melvin King who continuously pushes ahead with his quantitative easing program in spite of the dogma placed upon it. And lo and behold, the UK is seems to be recovering, with an olimpics to look forward to while the QE phobic eurozone goes down in flames.

Now that QE has done its job and got the stock market back on track, jobs will follow. Historically jobs always follow the stock market. Therefore I see no shortage of buyers for treasuries as the AAA rating will soon be restored and the deficit can be paid down.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 13:19 | 2324634 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

LMAO

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 15:51 | 2324925 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

I consider a Treasury auction where 60+% are purchased by the Fed to be a ' failed' auction.  Reality check, there are fewer and fewer actual buyers of US debt. The only question that needs to be answered is when does this all unravel ??   Yours, Maverick

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 16:11 | 2324954 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

Peeps don't get it. We're all living in Disneyworld right now. It's all fake.

The loans that everyone whines about are just as fake as 'money' printed to ... do something with them!

:)>

Well, no money is actually printed but who cares?

Gimme a beer!

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 16:44 | 2324998 Straying from t...
Straying from the flock's picture

"This is America, it couldn't happen here."

This is the phrase that will be the nail in the coffin for our once great republic.  It is the normalcy bias that keeps us from standing up for ourselves.  Separate yourself from the herd.  Soon there will be a new paradigm and those not aware will be fodder for the masses.  People do many odd things when you take away their future.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 18:42 | 2325160 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Screw that, I'm going to Disneyworld!

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 21:27 | 2325334 Michael
Michael's picture

I just thank God every day for the complete and total bankruptcy of the United States of America, given to us on a paper plate by our incompetent overlords. That should solve most of our problems, including the destruction of our overlords by their own works.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 21:52 | 2325394 MinnesotaMD
MinnesotaMD's picture

I hope to God something humane replaces the broken USA. I'm not optimistic, but I pray some good comes of this national bloodletting.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 03:48 | 2325758 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Nah, just look to the example of the former Soviet Union ... The most senior party members become the oligarchs. The only solace we might take is that the rank-and-file apparatchiks who went out of their way to make our lives a daily hell end up suffering in the gutter with the rest of us.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 09:40 | 2326015 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

The vast majority of people would rather live in the delusions spoon fed to them by their overlords than acknowledge reality.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 16:58 | 2325018 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Maxipsycho=MDB, right..

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 13:33 | 2324664 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Maxilopez, are you a colleague, student or replacement for 'Million Dollar Bonus'?

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 13:40 | 2324675 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

I regulate small businesses for the government. My interest in economics sometimes brings me to "economics" sites such as zero hedge. Though I find the sentiment here self-defeating. People should look to my example; I've worked hard to get a good college degree. Also I did extra curricular activities - it was through my campaigning for the president that I got my current job. Now there's talk of me going to europe to spend some time working in Brussels.

I'm living proof that hard work and dedication pays of even in these difficult economic times. Its not easy - yesterday I had to fine a group of children who thought they could just set up a lemonade stand on the sidewalk without any kind of license - what our country needs is better education.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 13:43 | 2324680 Renfield
Renfield's picture

LOL I took your first comment seriously too. OK, I guess you can stay after all.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:08 | 2324743 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

troll or not, i don't want my tax dollars being wasted on that guy.  can i fire him/her and get my money back?

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 23:41 | 2325515 Real Money Wins
Real Money Wins's picture

MaxiLopez you are an extreme case of Normalcy Bias, quite frankly you wouldn't know the truth if it was a solid object and someone beat you half to death with it. But please go on living in Fantasy-land , but fair warning being a government regulator it might be advisable to go to Brussels and stay there. Because when the SHTF the angry masses will be looking to lynch people like you, and it's hard to evade 300 million angry people, who won 't care if you were directly or indirectly responsible for this mess or just a willing accomplice.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 10:18 | 2326047 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

wtf is a small business regulator doing going to Brussels? My truck doesn't have pontoons...

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 17:22 | 2325043 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Yeah, I didnt know what to make of the first post either and clicked red, second one was good for a chuckle.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 13:51 | 2324702 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

MLP, can we call you that for short?

You should definitely stick around these parts.  We need people like you here to set us straight...to provide a real education, or provide us with your one-of-a-kind sense of humor.

Now...what kind of license is it that those terrorist lemonade selling children needed to get?

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 13:53 | 2324709 barwar
barwar's picture

Ouch!  I just cut myself on your sharp wit.  Well played.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 13:56 | 2324716 Babylonvi
Babylonvi's picture

The government regulating small business IS the problem, so by your own admission, your are complicit in holding back the economic recovery.  You must be familiar with the President's theories on small business as you campaigned for and now work for him(us), so could you please advise us as to how much redistribution it will take for the economy to recover.  Or how may more regulations(being churned out at over 2000 per month at last count) it will take to achieve economic recovery for "Main Street"?

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:03 | 2324736 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

Thats all just discredited libertarianism. EVERY economic recovery in history has been as a direct result of an increase in aggregate demand. Its just a matter of discovering how to stimulate it. And have you seen the performance of the stock market YTD? Talk about not seeing the wood from the trees. Other posters seem to have come around to my way of thinking. Why can't you? It's just basic logic.

As for your attack on my work - I suppose you'd like to live in a world where uneducated ferrel children can just run round setting up businesses just like that without any regard for social obligation or the rules?

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:22 | 2324779 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

You should be a stand up comedian instead. You have some great material.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 21:10 | 2326958 Bow Tie
Bow Tie's picture

yeah, just stand up and parrot the exact BS the establishment says, only knowingly. sadly they're so wrong it's pretty damn funny.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:47 | 2324821 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Oh MAN...  Damn you're good!!!

What's really sad is that there are people who actually think this way!

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 16:46 | 2325000 Straying from t...
Straying from the flock's picture

It is sad.  The herd keeps moving along while the sheppard and the dog keep them in check.  The Fed and the banks are criminal and need to be lynched.  Black bag them all and send them to gitmo.  After a little waterboarding, lets see if uncle Ben wants to keep hitting Ctrl+P.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:55 | 2324835 Darth..Putter
Darth..Putter's picture

You can tell when a system has already failed; when upholding apearances is more important than finding functionality, the system is in it's death throes.

 

The definition of "Small Business" is only one of problems we have.  The Koch Brothers run a "Small Business".

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 22:17 | 2325423 Michael
Michael's picture

The war on small business at the hands of the US government has be ongoing for decades. Make no mistake, the federal government hates small business and does everything they can to kill it.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 15:36 | 2324905 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

'EVERY economic recover in history has been as a direct result of an increase in aggregate demand."  Apparently you're the leader of a brand new school of economics that no one has ever heard of.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 18:41 | 2325142 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Welcome to ZH MLP, two govt suckups (you and MDB) would be better than one, twice as much humor. 

And yes I'm glad you're protecting us from those dangerous (terrist?) kids and their libertarian free-market unregulated non-health-inspected non-fda-inspected non-osha-approved non-epa-approved non-anything-approved lemonade stand.  I'm sure they're a threat to the public health and public good.

Did anyone ever mention you folks have too much time on your hands if you're going after lemonade stands?

There's way more important things to spend your time on, like MF Global ripping off customers for a cool billion dollars.

Say what?  Not your department?  You're the lemonade stand regulator?

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 10:22 | 2326053 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

it's...who was it? "Texas Gunslinger"? Gotta be the same guy..."the material has already run out." very odd this internet thing..."schtik don't work" for some reason. "Eventually (quite quickly actually)...you are only....you."

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:08 | 2324741 prains
prains's picture

Maxil

we eagerly await your departure

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 20:24 | 2326874 Bollixed
Bollixed's picture

Read his comments backwards in the mirror. They're fckin' hilarious.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:13 | 2324758 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

"I'm living proof that hard work and dedication and GOLD pays of even in these difficult economic times."

[inserted gold, sometimes that also pays]

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:20 | 2324776 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

BREWER AND SHIPLEY- " ONE TOKE OVER THE LINE "
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ejvcd-JeVCQ (3:17)

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 15:23 | 2324873 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

very funny.  lots of fun.  you and barry know how to cook socks.

 

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 17:55 | 2325078 XitSam
XitSam's picture

+1 for "cook socks"

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 16:26 | 2324976 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

Maxi- I don't know what Melvin King does for a living, but Mervyn King is not doing the job he is paid for. He know eactly how much trouble UK is in, and refuses to be blunt and direct about it. All nuance and subtlety, too bleedin polite is Merv.

If I can suggest anything to you, turn down the Brussels opportunity, it will cost you your humanity and your soul.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:10 | 2327058 Dixie Frank
Dixie Frank's picture

You sir, are hilarious!

 

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 12:29 | 2328318 Dens
Dens's picture

theMAXILOPEZpsycho did you forget </sarc>  ?

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 15:25 | 2324877 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

MDB was funny.  this guy is a complete idiot

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 15:31 | 2324890 Jena
Jena's picture

Agreed.  Even if he's exaggerating his position I think he is reflective of what some in Washington believe, and that's a problem for everyone who is trying to make a living -- especially those who are trying to run a small business.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:12 | 2327066 Dixie Frank
Dixie Frank's picture

No way! Comic genius.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 13:45 | 2324686 Koffieshop
Koffieshop's picture

You are right. The stock-market boom in Zimbabwe 2007 did wonders for the economy.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 13:48 | 2324694 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Aren't all the treasury auctions a failure by definition if they have to borrown 1.5 trillion every year?

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 15:06 | 2324846 trembo slice
trembo slice's picture

and if the Federal Reserve has to step up to buy 61% of the treasuries?

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 15:11 | 2324857 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

By suck-seed-ing at failing small, they've prevented themselves from failing very, very large...thus far.

 

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 15:32 | 2324892 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I would say so; but then I'm often accused of not being "normal"; and definetly not a "team Player".

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