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Guest Post: Things That Are More Important Than Facebook

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Finance Addict

Things That Are More Important Than Facebook

The story of Facebook’s disappointing IPO is a gripping tale, and it holds some valuable lessons. But it concerns an event that has already happened.

Forget Facebook — there are far more interesting events in play and that will affect you, if only at the margins. They haven’t happened yet, and they may not happen at all. But if they do, you’d sure as hell better have a plan.

This is the first in a series. I will add to it as frequently as I can over the next day or so, so check back often.

1. The euro will have, at the very least, a near-death experience. 

A currency that was well on its way to attaining global reserve status may now fall apart. It’s not like the sudden collapse of Lehman Brothers — we’ve known this might happen for months. But still — who dares to bet? Worse still is the human misery being caused by a “cure” that any idiot can see is not working to restore Greece’s debt sustainability.

This is uncharted territory. Consider this excerpt from the FT, last November:

Only last week, Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, said in a national broadcast that a Greek exit would be a “catastrophe” for Europe and the world.

 

The mood has now shifted dramatically, with Mr Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, publicly discussing the prospect in public as they heaped pressure on George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, to back away from his call for a plebiscite on the €130bn bail-out for Athens.

Things have only worsened since then, as talk of a Greek exit grows louder and louder and has even  Don’t take my word for it. Willem Buiter, Chief Economist of Citi, has been consistently ahead of this issue. Speaking in the Netherlands in 2010 he said [my translation]:

“For the next 20 years it will be no fun, whatsoever, to be a Finance Minister. In fact, you wouldn’t wish it on your worst enemy.”

Here’s what he had to say, as reported by Business Insider:

There are many uncertainties, but in our new forecasts we assume that Greece will leave EMU in early 2013, followed by sharp currency devaluation, with a large drop in economic activity in 2013 and a modest rebound further ahead. We believe that sizeable adverse economic and financial contagion to other euro area countries will be unavoidable and this is already happening to an extent. We expect that “Grexit” will be followed by far-reaching policy responses: we forecast the ECB will cut rates to 0.5% and resume its multi-year LTRO programme, a second package for both Portugal and Ireland, some kind of Troika programme for Spain, plus financial market support for Spain’s and Italy’s government bonds. We do not expect an early move to Eurobonds or full fiscal burden sharing. But, if deposit flight from periphery banks escalates, then EU policymakers may agree to a jointly-funded enhanced deposit guarantee scheme (DGS)—which aims to protect deposits against EMU exit and currency denomination as well as bank insolvency—plus a jointly-funded bank recapitalization scheme.

Will Spain really need a bailout, as Buiter thinks? Their banks are in horrible shape. From the New York Times:

As those losses are acknowledged, though, the question then becomes whether Spain can afford to absorb them. The government’s own bank bailout fund is running out of money. In a telling contradiction, Madrid has proposed that the country’s banks lend the government the money to keep the fund going.

NYT puts the pricetag at $264 billion. Investors doubt Spain can afford this. The eurozone can afford it, but they would have to print euros to do so. The market seems to think they will.

 


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Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:28 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

EUROTHANASIA. There is a reason Greece is called HELLas in Greek.

That's HELLas stupid!

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:41 | Link to Comment SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

feciebook has strong support at $0.00

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:44 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

 

“5 Day Bank Holiday” To Prepare For Collapse of Euro

Even members of the financial elite are losing patience with the single currency

Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet.com
Thursday, May 24, 2012

While the global elite are still clinging to the hope that the euro single currency can survive a Greek exit that now looks inevitable, some members of the financial aristocracy have already given up on the entire eurozone altogether.

In an article for the Financial Times entitled, We must break up the failing euro, former Bilderberg attendee Sir Martin Jacomb concedes that all efforts to rescue the euro have been in vain, calling for “all 17 members to decide at once to revert to national currencies.”

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:47 | Link to Comment SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Chinese Plate Spinners

 

http://youtu.be/IRkZN27Hp_k

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

Bullets, beans, & bullion, bitchez!

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+1

 

Yes, we are lucky to have had a LONG time to prepare.  Will we still have more time?  Who can say?  Best to buy bullion, beans and bullets while still available.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

bbq's, burgers, bouncy tents are more likely what CNBC will cover while the world economy implodes

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:36 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Here's an interesting product from a company that "Rahm" (I think) pointed me to, it takes water from the air, and has a solar power option.  Looks to be a great "off the grid" way to produce water:

http://www.ecoloblue.com/Simple/products.php?96&cPath=14

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment preppin.for.the...
preppin.for.the.big.one's picture

For the low, low price of $3,995, you TOO can have a solar-powered pull-water-out-of-your-ass technological marvel!

Pfft.  Buy a couple of 55-gallon barrels suitable for water storage (I found three of them locally for $20), a simple ceramic filter purification system ($40, tops) and collect rain water from your roof.

Or... better yet... dig a good old-fashioned well in your backyard (in my area, only have to go down about 25-30 feet) and buy a hand pump to pull the water up...

And stock up on bulletz, beanz, bootz and beer, bitchez!

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 15:09 | Link to Comment LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

why dig?  google up Sand Point (aka Drive Point) wells man.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

dont forget the Borzit...

http://borzit.com/sandpoints.html

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

...and batteries. Useful, and great for trade.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:42 | Link to Comment GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Don't forget.......water. Oh, wait, that doesn't fit the "B" theme. Ok, don't forget BEER.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

don't forget the BJ's

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:23 | Link to Comment BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

Touchy-feely-but realistic note: 

Take out the "bullets" and instead add "buddies".  Going it alone me-versus-all gun-slinging survivalist style is an option, but being part of a cooperative local network of friends/community increases likelihood of quality survival for you and your family many times over.  That is the clear communication i've gotten from reading accounts from war-torn areas or economically devasted areas. 

There are no guarantees, but for most people, optimal strategy may be an artful combination of individualism and community cooperation. 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:28 | Link to Comment Blammo
Blammo's picture

To me the word "community"= HURL

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:34 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

OK
Village.
It takes a Village.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:51 | Link to Comment BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

try substituting: "other humans" :-)   pragmatism may help you overcome your revulsion.  How did food/electricity/water/internet/etc. get to you today?  Other humans.  How about these ZH postings?  Who writes them? Other humans.  And kinda' of a comXXXity, don't you think ;-)  All of us live because we are part of an interdependent web... that is unavoidable.  Sorry that makes you nauseous.  It could make you grateful :-) 

Did you read that extensive account by the guy who survived a seige in the former Yugoslavia?  It turned into a primal, primitive horror, but one of the lessons was that those that worked together/helped each other out were more likely to survive...  Those going alone were much more vulnerable (statistically).

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

And, best of all, other armed humans.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 16:10 | Link to Comment BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

Even in that case acting in a mutually-supportive team (whether to work things out with the threat or to defend against him) generally raises your chances of survival over going it alone.  As the Yugosalvian guy reported, people trying to defend their homes alone - how many 24 hr. shifts can you do in a row by yourself? - were slaughtered, those that banded together were much more resilient

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:22 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Link?

to the "yugosalvian (sic) guy"?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:26 | Link to Comment Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Another tech IPO that I'll be able to short?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:56 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

"Things that are more important than Facebook"

Bite your tongue!

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 19:54 | Link to Comment Drachma
Drachma's picture

I use YouFace and sometimes get into TubeSpace.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Step 1:   Repartiate all foreign gold holding back to Northern Countries (under threat of dollar foreign reseve dump)

Step 2:   Kick out PIIGS and the frenchies

STep 3:  Revalue physical gold to wipe out Dollar/Euro debt and recap banks and solidify Euro as a reserve currency to buy oil...

 

 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Step 4: Play with unicorn, kraken and yeti.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

It's the most logical play.  They could all go back to their own currencies - but there would be scale for the Northern coutries to 'stick together'.  

 

They'd also have first mover advantage on going back to a market tie to gold -- beating the Chinese

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:15 | Link to Comment jonytk
jonytk's picture

Nononono, unlike the US, the ECB still can lower rates, LTRO, and as last resort print more money!

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

Some problems with this theory, so turns out lot of the EU gold is held in London and NYC.  So how will these countries get the gold from London/NYC to Germany?  Particularly since Germany itself seems unable to get it's gold back from the US.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

They could threaten to dump their US Dollar foreign reserves and treasuries and/or form an unholy alliance with Russia and China.

It would still create a reset to physical and wipe out dollar debt holdings and reset the Euro.

 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

Privately sure, publicly not so much.  Drawing attention to "Hey USA/UK has all our gold we are screwed!" does not inspire confidence in a new gold EU/German currency.  Now if you were the US, how would you respond "So you want your gold back so you can dump the dollar and walk...or you will threaten to dump the dollar and walk... Well we have military bases in your country and your gold.  Piss off!"

As to unholy alliance, why on God's green earth would Germany trust Russia/China?  Not saying they should have trusted the US/UK, but that is like saying Guy X molested me, so I will automatically trust Guy Y, he is a molester to but with a different type of mustache.  I think even the most childishly naive geo-political analyst can see that China has no interest in a strong Germany, and I think Russia/Germany still bear scars from their clashes though the past century.

No they won't get their gold back and the idea of a Euro gold currency is a pipe dream.  Look at the demographics of Germany, Europe's powerhouse.  Tell me how they are going to support their current welfare state 20 years into the future with a soft currency, with a hard currency it would certainly lead to cutting of the welfare state, which the masses themselves would resist and from which the political class derives it's power.  Why would Germany want debts reset, it's an asset to them.  Seems the Germans like not having their savings wiped out.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Good seeing you around Shameful!  I always read your thoughtful posts.  + 1

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:07 | Link to Comment ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Dude, it's not Iceland you're talking about!

Yours is a nice dream of a problem that can be solved with some effort, but now it's time you wake up...

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

Unfortunately for Europe, all of their Gold is in NY...They would be the bitches at the table.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:27 | Link to Comment boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Concomitant with the EUro plunge will be the USDollar SURGE.

Does gold drop with the dollar rise, as has been the case recently?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:43 | Link to Comment Unholy Dalliance
Unholy Dalliance's picture

Repartiate?

Perhaps you meant re-fartipate (to break wind for a second or subsequent on a bald person's head).

Or indeed repatriate is a possibility.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

PIIGS and the Frenchies? You mean FUKPIIGS?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 15:58 | Link to Comment headless blogger
headless blogger's picture

s/b:

PIIGS + Frenchies + Brits = FUKPIIGS

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

The "unchecked greed" that cause MOST of our problems.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And the unchecked greed always remains unchecked no matter how many times it all implodes they say 'Oh yes we really learned our lesson this time, no more of that!' and then get right back to piracy on a higher level than before.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:10 | Link to Comment Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Damn redivimists ... recivadists ... revidamists ... AARRGGHHH! Damn repeat-offenders!

(OK ... just kidding ... it's recidivists)

Golly, you're not suggesting that punishment has some kind of deterrent effect, are you. That's like ... so Stone Age.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:39 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

"that a Greek exit would be a “catastrophe” for Europe and the world."

 

My understanding is that the world existed before the Euro so why not after its passing?! 

Too bad the Deminati's plan since the 1950's is going to hell in a handbasket.  There is a God afterall!!!!!!!

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment marketcycles79
marketcycles79's picture

Making money is important no? Not following the herd?

Using roadmaps to predict the most probable outcomes?

 

http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/

 

Not trading on fear or emotion. Using patterns and cycles developed independently over time.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:47 | Link to Comment jonytk
jonytk's picture

You have a plan? don't worry in case of real problems the markets will be misteriously unavailable: JUST LIKE AT THE FACEBOOK IPO.

So there you go it IS related to Facebook! LOL

True story bro.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

Everything is more important than facebook.  This over saturation will hasten the already started demise and open door for new fad/brand.  Social media is just.....entertainment.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Greece not leaving until 'early 2013' so in other words we have to see this muppet show day after day for almost another year. Sheesh.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment machinegear
machinegear's picture

Long ZH Greece articles with squiggly line graphs going in extreme directions to symbolize "bad".

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

You don't have to see one damn bit of it.  You can stop paying attention anytime you want.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

The Euro is toast. Check.

Facebook blows. Check.

Being a finance minister blows. Check.

Anyone associated with a finance minister -- by default - blows. Check.

Check back for more. Check.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:43 | Link to Comment Tinky
Tinky's picture

Presumably you accept checks.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:37 | Link to Comment Rentier
Rentier's picture

Waiting for euro to tank... :)

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:39 | Link to Comment moofph
moofph's picture

...a muppet is not a muppet unless there is a hand up it.

facebook was hyped for about a year in the mainstream propaganda machine...what a coincidence its hysteria coincided with nsa/dhs/tsa/etc. policies and/or regulations...then all of a sudden the founder flies the coo coos nest and is followed by a pump and dump...reality is just so easy when you pay attention to it...and it is more profitable too...so, watching the "big shots" get burned by their own greed makes them rather "small shots"...with frothy vapors.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment God Bless The V...
God Bless The Virtuous's picture

Just about anything is more important than Facebook!

The single most important thing that it turns out Facebook has a boycott on is

GOD!

Then, anything that this communist administration has perverted in the goal of "TRANSFORMATION" and "FORWARD" and undoing the founding principles the republic was formed on, and the absolute abdication by the lame street media to tell the truth about the killing of personal liberty and everything else this perversion has mounted!

The fact that Americans are so wrapped up in this moral perversion of societal norms once thought the bedrock of this great country!

There is anything, anything in the 10 commandments that are more important. You could argue nothing is worthy with regard to Facebook.

It is useless!

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:35 | Link to Comment preppin.for.the...
preppin.for.the.big.one's picture

Pffft.

You think that "this admininstration" is culpable for the loss of liberty we've experienced?  Better check your history, GBV.

Start with Eisenhower warning us that the military industrial complex had "unwarranted influence" upon our government and that there existed a "potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power".

Fast forward to "REX84" (this website provides a great background and documents its sources: http://www.publiceye.org/liberty/fema/Fema_1.html). 

Fast forward a little further to the Patriot Act.

So, it ain't just "this administration", pal.  It starts with the apathy of the governed.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:00 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

one last short squeeze/dying breath for Euro up to $1.30 and then kaput? Jim Rogers said he was loading up on Euros because everybody was on the other side of the boat. thank god Pandora only lost .09 a share so there could be a 14% pop today-nothing like investing in a business model that will NEVER make $-until then I will enjoy the service for free.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Harriet Wanger
Harriet Wanger's picture

Things that are less important than Facebook:

 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:12 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Meanwhile, Jim Cramer's and his flip-flop $FB opinions are this week's Monday Morning QB MVP (again)

http://t.co/cLE0ecCz

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:14 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Damn, thanks, we forgot the beans. Am on it.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment mendigo
mendigo's picture

for me the reason tjat Facebook is imporyant is that:
it is another example of how lightweight or economy has become
it is another example of how the market mis-allocates resources
it is another example of how our kids are learning to focus on total bullshit as opposed to worthwhile endeavors
it was an opportunity for 0.1% to distract the sheep from what's really happening - as in the real world where food and fuel prices have gone parabolic yet our representatives tell us we have 2% inflation

TPTB have much riding on fb I think - may it grind thier dreams to dust

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment spine001
spine001's picture

They will print a LOT before Dec 2012

They will pring a LOT only after Dec 2013

 

 

The eurozone can afford it, but they would have to print euros to do so. The market seems to think they will.

Until next time,

Engineer

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:58 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

And thus the printing will continue unabated, resulting in currency wars, unbridled inflation, and ultimately WWIII.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 15:55 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

FB __ a two-letter symbol allegorically suitable for the four letter word NYSE.

    'How quaint does ones devious motives delve -- when Satan swallows muppet's whole --whilst, the scripted transitional fait`accompli tale, from purgatory to hell -- twas all encrypted by greed itself with nigh a full-moon to cast its shadow -- alas,... again, and again, this poor mans' crippled Achilles, has cast his lot once more in the fiery depths of Hades most gratuitous sins!' 

Summary: Zuckerberg et.el. were fully abreast of the IPO going quickly south,... choosing a premeditated departure well in advance. Why the NYSE Symbol?

jmo

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

If these financial wankers were running Russian when Hitler invaded, we all would be speaking German today.  What a bunch of infinitely inept wahoos........

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 16:05 | Link to Comment Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

Facebook market cap is as big as Pepsico, Merk, McDonalds, Qualcomm, Visa or Intel. It's simply outrageous  People have no more Faith in the Financial System. Run !

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 16:37 | Link to Comment post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

No kidding... call me when FB is actually truly worth as much as MCD. By then they'll be a Dow component, have a revenue stream wide as the Mississippi, split 40 ways, and paid out dividends over 20+ years. Then and only then will they be worth as much as MCD.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 17:17 | Link to Comment ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Sorry, I really can't take anything Sarkozy or the Cheif Economist of Citi say seriously.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 19:37 | Link to Comment SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

THE MARKET IS BASED ON IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE !

THE POPE IS CATHOLIC !

BEARS SHIT IN THE WOODS !

FIAT CURRENCY IS PAPER !

THE MARKET IS MUSICAL CHAIRS ON CRACK WITH A LAP DANCER KEEPING YOU DISTRACTED WHILE SHE VACUMS OUT YOUR WALLET, AND GIFTS YOU A REALLLY BAD CASE OF DRIPPY GREEN DICK !

WE ARE FUCKED AND WE KNOW IT, AND WE REALLY WANNA SHOW IT, WE ARE FUCKED AND WE KNOW IT, CLAP YOUR HANDS !

THIS POST IS DONE IN BOLD, WHICH RHYMES WITH GOLD !

SOON, WE'EL FIND OUT IF THE MOVERS AND SHAKERS OF THE WORLD CAN MAKE REALLY GOOD CAT FOOD !

IF THEY CAN'T, THEN MAYBE THEY CAN DIVERSIFY, AND BECOME DOG FOOD INSTEAD !

BE PREPARED, OR BE FUCKED. YOUR CHOICE. CHOOSE WISELY.

NOTHING HAPPENS, NO PROBLEM. SOMETHING GOES WRONG, STICK WITH THOSE WHO BELIEVE IN THE TRUTH. 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:07 | Link to Comment SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Sometimes, I like caps - they get the fucking point across.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 18:09 | Link to Comment barroter
barroter's picture

What the FB fiasco affirmed for me is this.  Wall St, the Banks and most of your businesses are just frauds waiting to dig into your pocket.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 21:29 | Link to Comment covert
Fri, 05/25/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment tamboo
tamboo's picture
,
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!