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Guest Post: Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction
Submitted by Guy McPherson of Nature Bats Last
Three Paths To Near-Term Human Extinction
About a decade ago I realized we were putting the finishing touches on our own extinction party, with the party probably over by 2030. During the intervening period I’ve seen nothing to sway this belief, and much evidence to reinforce it. Yet the protests, ridicule, and hate mail reach a fervent pitch when I speak or write about the potential for near-term extinction of Homo sapiens.
“We’re different.”
“We’re special.”
“We’re too intelligent.”
“We’ll find a way out. We always do.”
We’re humans, and therefore animals. Like all life, we’re special. Like all organisms, we’re susceptible to overshoot. Like all organisms, we will experience population decline after overshoot.
Let’s take stock of our current predicaments, beginning with one of several ongoing processes likely to cause our extinction. Then I’ll point out the good not quite so bad news.
We’re headed for extinction via global climate change
It’s hotter than it used to be, but not as hot as it’s going to be. The political response to this now-obvious information is to suspend the scientist bearing the bad news. Which, of course, is no surprise at all: As Australian climate scientist Gideon Polya points out, the United States must cease production of greenhouse gases within 3.1 years if we are to avoid catastrophic runaway greenhouse. I think Polya is optimistic, and I don’t think Obama’s on-board with the attendant collapse of the U.S. industrial economy.
Apparently — too little, too late — a couple people have noticed a few facts about Obama. This “awakening” might explain why his political support is headed south at a rapid clip.
But back to climate change, one of three likely extinction events. Well, three I know about: I’m certain there are others, and any number can play. With four months remaining in the year, the U.S. has already tied its yearly record for the most billion-dollar weather disasters. Russia is headed directly for loss of 30% of its permafrost by 2050. Tundra fires could accelerate planetary warming. This year, the Northeast Passage was open as of 27 July. This is a massively dire situation for the Arctic. In fact, we have passed a de facto tipping point with respect to Arctic ice. This latter outcome is stunning, but only to those who follow the horrifically conservative and increasingly irrelevant Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Nature is responding with hybrid bears, suggesting the near-term loss of all polar bears. Indeed, all Earth’s systems are rapidly declining. Many organisms can’t keep up as they try to stay ahead of an overheating planet.
As the living planet decays, we keep piling on. Examples abound. Here’s one tiny example among thousands, from that pesky BP well at Deepwater Horizon. It’s out of the news cycle, but it’s not done destroying life in the Gulf of Mexico. But perhaps this tidbit belongs beneath the heading of …
We’re headed for extinction via environmental collapse
Nature is bankrupt, just like Wall Street and the USA. Thanks for playing, but you lose. The banksters on Wall Street “win.” But only in the short term. In the long run, we’re all dead (as first stated by John Maynard Keynes).
Among the consequences of taking down more than 200 species each day: at some point, the species we take into the abyss is Homo sapiens (the wise ape). The vanishing point draws nearer every day. Our response, in the industrialized world: Bring on the toys. Burn all fossil fuels. Harvest the rain forests and strip-mine the soil. Pollute the water, eat the seed bank.
And, most importantly, figure out how we can make a few bucks as the world burns.
We have our hand in a monkey trap, and we can’t let go.
We’re headed for extinction via nuclear meltdown
Safely shuttering a nuclear power plant requires a decade or two of careful planning. Far sooner, we’ll complete the ongoing collapse of the industrial economy. This is a source of my nuclear nightmares.
When the world’s 442 nuclear power plants melt down catastrophically, we’ve entered an extinction event. Think clusterfukushima, times 400. Ionizing radiation could, and probably will, destroy every terrestrial organism and, therefore, every marine and freshwater organism. That, by the way, includes the most unique, special, intelligent animal on Earth.
Ready for some good news?
Meanwhile, back on Wall Street
The Securities and Exchange Commission is busily covering up Wall Street crimes, just as they did during the last presidential administration. And, as it turns out, they’ve been performing this trick for two decades. Finally, though, the S&P is taking the U.S. to the woodshed.
The S&P knows what the media and politicians know: U.S. national debt isn’t really $14 trillion and change, as we’ve been led to believe. In fact, it exceeds $200 trillion. And, back when it was a mere $10.5 trillion, it exceeded the value of all circulating currencies as well as all the gold ever mined. It cannot be paid off, ever. The response will be default. With luck, it’ll happen quickly and completely, thus sending us directly to the new dark age (with the post-industrial Stone Age soon to follow).
The ongoing crash of the stock markets differs from prior events because, for one thing, the Fed is about out of ammunition. At this juncture, there are no easy solutions. In fact, there are no solutions at all. We have just about used up all our “rabbits in the hat” as far as fiscal and monetary policy are concerned. Economics pundit Graham Summers agrees: The Fed is about to find itself completely powerless as 2008 redux appears.
Think of 2008 as an economic teddy bear, and 2011 as a grizzly. And I think I mentioned this one already: The hunters are out of bullets.
The all-too-expected political response from the final remaining superpower: ratchet up covert wars. Maybe, while we’re at it, launch another World War.
The bottom line
You’ve been warned repeatedly in this space, and the Guardian finally joins the party: The industrial economic system is about to blow. This burst of hope, our remaining chance at salvation, will undoubtedly be greeted with the usual assortment of protests, ridicule, and hate mail I’ve come to expect from planetary consumers who want to keep consuming the planet.
The underlying predicament — reduction in available energy — is described graphically by Gail Tverberg in this essay. She then tacks on fine analysis in this subsequent essay. Jared Diamond adds a dose of complexity, as described by Erik Curren at Transition Voice.
But these warning shots are only the most recent in a rich history dating back to Marcus Aurelius (and probably further). For materials only slightly older than me that focus on our energy predicament, take a peek at M. King Hubbert’s 1956 paper and the text of Admiral Hyman G. Rickover’s 1957 speech.
And then, let go.
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How many did they need to evacuate to keep that number at 64 (not 10)? More than 350,000.
How many have died from radioactive contamination of the environment since then? Nearly a million.
How many died in Belarus or elsewhere, where most of the fallout came down as rainout? I guess we'll never know.
Try again, dimwit.
"The earth's been warmer and cooler in the past." LOL...you really dismiss decades of hard science with stupid fucking platitiudes like this?
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-w...
You're dumb enough to deserve to die.
Snowball, well put except that last sentence. You still have not started that personal exercise program I suggested have you? At least go chase a cheerleader and get some oxygen into your considerable brain.
Your buddy Tuco
The wife really wouldn't appreciate that, especially since I'd have to leave her with the kid to do it. I'll stick with my rowing machine, thanks. I'm not sure exercise would make me more tolerant of the deliberately stupid anyway.
"In the long run, we’re all dead (as first stated by John Maynard Keynes)." roflmao.
Here's the part I love. All those dire predicitions of "global warming" never occurred, and the predicted time frames have come and gone. Were you just wrong then, but right now? Just yesterday we had ANOTHER 3000+ CLIMATE scientists sign a petition saying global warming is still at BEST a theory. meanwhile, the single BIGGEST contributor to global temperatures, as shown by MANY different studies, is solar activity which is supposed to spike next year and then DRAMATICALLY drop off.
But let's get more to the point.
WHAT'S THE TEMPERATURE OF THE EARTH "SUPPOSED" TO BE ?!?!? Can you answer that BASIC question? Of course not! You don't even know what your GOAL IS! Meanwhile, we're supposed to commit virtual suicide when we don't even havbe defined end point or goal ?!?! Are you f***ing KIDDING ME ?!?! The earth has been MUCH warmer in the past, and it has also been MUCH cooler. So how in the hell do you get to decide that what the temperature is supposed to be.
Meanwhile, CO2 is a MINOR component of global warming (which does not exist). Water vapor is a MUCH bigger contributor. Aren't you supposed to champion science over these charlatan paid off theory craftists who discard data points and won't allow true perr review?
Answer this. What technology EXISTS ANYWHERE on the f***ING PLANET that will lower global temps? Oh yeah, it doesn't exist. So the US is supposed to commit unilateral economic suicide while the thrird world can pollute away tyo achieve an undefined goal to fix a problem a substantial number of scientists say doesn't exist without any existing technology that can do so. F***ING BRILLIANT !!!
Go back to HuffmattersKos.
Hey, why don't you write a paper about the water vapor theory and submit it to the on-line journals for peer review.
You really don't understand the science do you?
Hey, why don't you quit telling people what to do, you smarmy fuck.
Yay! How fun! Hat tips and high fives for everyone.
No, I do not understand the science because there is nothing to understand. AGW is a political and religious movement, nothing more.
Coming from someone with BA in polysci.... Nice....
And Flaky, why do you not link to the 20 plus peer reviewed papers you claim to have authored, as per your CV, below? Perhaps we might be better pursuaded to your cause?
Flakmeister
Vote up! 0
Vote down! 0
M. Sc. in Theoretical Physics, Ph.D. Experimental Physics,
Post Doctroral Experience: U. of Chicago, U. Michigan, Visiting scientist U. of Manchester,
Staff Scientist at Brookhaven National Lab
Primary author of ~20 peer reviewed research papers....
Referee for the Physical Review
Internationally known: Invited seminars and colloquia in 7 countries, 3 continents.... ~20 of the top 100 research universities in US, places like Stanford, CalTech. Featured speaker at 2 international conferences....
Over 20 years experience basic research....
And while not related 5 years experience in structured finance on Wall St.
Hope that helps....
Hey Flaky, why don´t you link to the 20 plus peer reviewed papers you claimed to have published? Gee if you are so clever, prove us wrong. C´mon I dare you :-)
Climatologist is the perfect word for them. Right up there with astrologists. Where the fuck is the predictive capacity above chance and show me the unbiased experiment that tests the null hypothesis?? If you cant produce those, the gold standards of science, you are a quack! QUACKETY- QUACK-QUACK SAVE YOURSELF!!!!
Wow, the Hedge has it's very own Karl Popper wannabe...
I would gladly abandon them, if you have a better mousetrap to weed out charlatans with delusions of grandeur. ;) Or should I just trust our institutions cause' they're doing god's work.
Gee geoffb, thats a bit unfair comparing Climatologists to Astrologers. When did an astrologer demand that we pay a star tax, lest the sky fall upon us?
1.) As Voyager 1and 2 left our solar system and entered our Sun's Heliosphere, they snapped a picture and it showed a highly charged ribbon of plasma, from a galactic dust cloud called fluff, that shouldn't be there. Highly charged and magnetized hydrogen, helium and hydroxyls are leaking into our solar system, changing it through it's processes, heating things up and contributing Elf waves that encourage earthquakes
NASA just released a warning for powerful CMEs and Flares for 2012...
NASA just mapped Einsteins space-time vortex...
NASA just discovered flux tubes that connect Earth and the Sun exchanging highly energetic particles, some are passive others not...
NASA is looking for that big nasty that punched a hole in our Suns heliosphere, letting in all that radiation. They call in Tyche and they look in the direction of all the comets, they say it may take two years to find it...
I call it the space Bernanke.
Believable, except that the data comes from NASA. If the source were Al Gore it would be just a believable.
For want of a nail...etc.etc.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAUY-Y3Kiek&feature=digest
Just curious Tyler, how much were you paid to print this horseshit??
Flakmeister needs to go back to sucking Al's weenie, now that Tipper ain't doing it.
Allow me to wrap it up in a nutshell: the climate has been changing one way or another since the day this planet was created, it's going to keep changing long after we're all forgotten, and there's nothing man can do about it. I don't need to write no bullshit stinkin' paper, it's called common sense.
As you were.
Do you have something that you want to say to me?
Edit: Clearly someone that doesn't want to have a new one ripped for them...
ouuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu scary. Flaky rips new ones.
No, none of us have anything to say to you. Why would we argue with a religious AGW fanatic? Better if we allow you to take your beliefs to their ultimate conclusion, and follow the example of the heavens gates kooks.
Well if you don't, why not simply STFU.... you have added nothing to this thread...
For once you are right, Flaky. So, please, pretty please, give us links to the 20 plus peer reviewed papers that you have authored. I promise once again , as you eloquently requested, to STFU. FYI, I have attached your CV to help you sort out your online personalities.
Flakmeister
Vote up! 0
Vote down! 0
M. Sc. in Theoretical Physics, Ph.D. Experimental Physics,
Post Doctroral Experience: U. of Chicago, U. Michigan, Visiting scientist U. of Manchester,
Staff Scientist at Brookhaven National Lab
Primary author of ~20 peer reviewed research papers....
Referee for the Physical Review
Internationally known: Invited seminars and colloquia in 7 countries, 3 continents.... ~20 of the top 100 research universities in US, places like Stanford, CalTech. Featured speaker at 2 international conferences....
Over 20 years experience basic research....
And while not related 5 years experience in structured finance on Wall St.
Hope that helps....
You do realize that you are acting like a child?
Do you realize that claim prestigious honors, but will not substantiate them. I may be a child, but you are a BS artist. I will give you this...given your propensity to pontificate, lie, obsfucate and dissemble, you are perfectly suited as a AGW spokesperson. With someone like you advocating for AGW, no wonder the fraud continues to unravel.
Absent in Body/Present in Spirit
What is it about the Germans and the Jews? That should be obvious by now. Moneychangers. If you take the position that 2 + 2 = 4 and force all opponents to prove otherwise, all they can do is create relativity/gravity/time, which will explode in their face when a sufficient population threshold is reached on the event horizon. The problem is climate volatility in the feedback loop, which is now locked into financial volatility, running on automatic. What happens when you stop feeding the black hole?
Foreign aid to Israel will stop, the easy way or the hard way, and you know they are going to choose the hard way every time. No problem; the tuning fork is fully loaded and directed accordingly. Giving up future investment for immediate gratification/consumption lasts until the future becomes the present, when the intelligent critters walk away from the system and set the proper gap. How much of the nucleus survives depends upon how long the Fed keeps introducing relativity, and how the event horizon adjusts upon implosion.
So, I am carrying one of these hard core feminists and she pulls the sex lock-out maneuver on me, when she finds out that I could care less about the sex, which they have made a low cost commodity everywhere now, or whether she lives or dies. Her jaw is dragging on the floor. Neanderthals.
Like cockroaches, pull all the homogeneous filters out of the house, clean everything inside, and then clean all the furniture before you put it back in the house, under a bright light. Like Grandma taught you, do it every year. Once the bright light hits them, they stampede, as their irrational programs are all ignited at once.
For the thumpers:
“We have wronged no one, we have corrupted no one, we have exploited no one. Our desire is not that others might be relieved while you are hard pressed, but that there might be equality. At the present time your plenty will supply what they need, so that in turn their plenty will supply what you need. Now I am ready to visit you for the third time, and I will not be a burden to you, because what I want is not your possessions but you. After all, children should not have to save up for their parents, but parents for their children.
Whatever anyone else dares to boast about—I am speaking as a fool—I also dare to boast about. Are they Hebrews? So am I. Are they Israelites? So am I. Are they Abraham’s descendants? So am I. I have worked much harder, been in prison more frequently, been flogged more severely, and been exposed to death again and again. Five times I received from the Jews the forty lashes minus one. Three times I was beaten with rods, once I was pelted with stones, three times I was shipwrecked, I spent a night and a day in the open sea, I have been constantly on the move. I have been in danger from rivers, in danger from bandits, in danger from my fellow Jews, in danger from Gentiles; in danger in the city, in danger in the country, in danger at sea; and in danger from false believers. I have labored and toiled and have often gone without sleep; I have known hunger and thirst and have often gone without food; I have been cold and naked. Besides everything else, I face daily the pressure of my concern for all the churches. Who is weak, and I do not feel weak? Who is led into sin, and I do not inwardly burn?
While we look not at the things which are seen, but at the things which are not seen: for the things which are seen are temporal; but the things which are not seen are eternal.”
Well written, if nothing else. I'm not a jew nor a thumper; nonetheless I enjoyed that read.
The climate nuts are the new Amway distributors. Annoying as hell.
More like Scientologists.
You missed one.
Runaway AI bitchez.
Okay, I was going to be decent, but let me take the verbal gloves off for a minute.
AGW and shit like it are nothing but a f'king distraction to rally people around the VERY power brokers who led us into this pit of hell. It is CENTRAL F'KING PLANNING CLOAKED BY ENVIRONMENTALISM. Get it?
IF AGW is so f'king real and such a threat, why does it need massive government and leftist funding in order to prove it's existence? The biggest discoveries of all time didn't require any outside funding. Only someone in search of the truth. AGW is nothing but a bunch of bovine f'king excrement.
Again, this is garbage meant to distract people from the real threat to their lives.
Only one point I disagree with. Bovine Excrement is much more useful, a great natural fertilizer whereas the AGW fertilizer is much like the science behind it. It smells like shit, looks like shit and performs like shit but it won't fertilize shit.
Pull my finger and you've got a 4th path...
LOL. An oldie but goodie!
lol
:/
So it is Apocalypse Now ??? Well send me your money and go stand on a hill and wait, oh and i'll give ya yer money back if the world don't end ;-)
I'm astonished that ZH contaminates this blog with such utter shit. This entire article warrants life without parole.
A fucking embarrassment of the highest order, and unworthy of a high class financial blog like ZH.
Nothing wrong with rolling around in the gutter once in a while.
Yes, you must pardon me, but we must be exposed to The Good, The Bad "and" The Ugly.
Tuco
Undoubtedly one of my all time favorite westerns... along with "Once Upon A Time in the West".
Smokey1, I respectfully disagree. ZH is giving us an opportunity to give the AGW'ers well deserved beat downs. Jump in, get your knuckles red and enjoy.
And lack of Grammatical educate/ Vindicates your POST? Expletives and such?
(ya) I'm perturbed!
"Rosebud" All the crap dude accumulated in his life and all he could remember when he dies is a sled from his childhood.
- Pharoahs can't surf.
Oh yeah one more thing, when it comes to $$$ figure of disasters. It's like movie receipts. Each year the price of a ticket goes up, so after some time, even a shitty movie can eclipse the box office take of a good movie from a decade or two earlier.
Same goes with disasters.
On TOP of this, we have lots of 'crop losses'. Much of it avoidable with better waterways...i.e. better levees, and the ability to shift the water around through better waterways. Thus you can protect the crops from being inundated, and SHIFT that water where it was going to somewhat go anyways and back to the areas it didn't and thus caused the drought.
But on that note, since they happened in the context of hyperinflated (beginning) food prices, the COST of the damages are calculated with hyperinflated crop prices = higher $$$ value 'lost'.
Don't forget 60 percent of our corn crop is used for useless ethanol, which of course, is enough to feed 500 million+ people. End the use of corn for ethanol, and the amount of food is there to take care of (if properly done) about 1/3 of the hungry on this earth.
Because we don't, we have 500 million more hungry mouths, more of a push to the backside of th fed's hyperinflation printing (for fraudulent debt that must be wiped out with Glass-Steagall), and thus when lost, higher disaster 'figures', and a propaganda line that can be used to make the case for global warming...based on a useless metric of $$$ lost.
Maybe 99942 Apophis is an ELE. It might neatly explain a thing or two about the irrational fiscal policies?
NASA has the Deep Impact program, the ESA is working on the Don Quijote mission, the Russians have a mission, and even the Chinese have recently announced a mission to Apophis. Could there be more to this than meets the eye? What do they know that we don't?
Guns, gold/silver, and beans probably won't save you from that kind of event, and they need the gold and silver for the hail mary missions to save us all. If we assume for a minute that Apophis is going to hit, how would it change the collective ZeroHedge analyses?
Chinese plans: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27088/
ESA plans: http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-08-impact-mitigation.html, http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/NEO/SEMZRZNVGJE_0.html
ESA research: http://www.esa.int/gsp/ACT/doc/MAD/pub/ACT-RPR-MAD-2006-(Acta)OptimalTrajectoriesForTheImpulsiveDeflectionOfNearEarthObjects.pdf
Russian plans: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2010631820_apeurussiaasteroidencounter.html
NASA impactor: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/deepimpact/main/
If they knew it was going to hit, it would be a crime against humanity that they wouldn't be doing anything. Of course you reference the proposed missions, but that wouldn't be a reason to do what they do economically.
It's well known that if you push a meteor with just a marginal nudge, for a period of time, long enough into the future, you can alter it's trajectory MASSIVELY, and end up with something that never hits.
IF they knew, and they've been talking about apophis for a few years now, then they already could of been ready to do something (given the time), and if not, there is plenty of time to still do it. You probably only need a couple of years lead time to push it out of the way. Meaning we still have ~15 years in order to 'start' pushing.
Glass-Steagall
Scientists at Stanford where creating a random counter using a Geiger counter and they crossed referenced radioactive decay numbers with other scientists and they found that radioactive decay is changing slightly between seasons, this has NEVER happened before, EVER!!!!!!
There is something, irreversibly, changing our physical universe, perhaps a more dense, highly charged, radioactive inner bubble of super fluff, entering our system.
I'm long copper for Faraday Cages...
Bernakespeak: Inner Bubble of Super Fluff- Def: When the tip emits a gooey bubble internally in the recipeints anus within the super fluff deposit ejected from the tip.
You can't know that unless someone has been measuring radioactive decay since the beginning of time. Just because something is observed for the first time does not mean it did not exist previously. The planet Uranus, for example, did not simply spring into existence in 1781 when Herschel announced his discovery.
Pardon the melodrama.
Certainly.
"this has NEVER happened before, EVER!!!!!!"
Yes, you're right. They had never before EVER checked back through the old data and found that some isotope decay rates varied seasonally by a minute amount.
However it's very safe to assume tht the variation has been happening for ever, just didn't get noticed before, since 'it's impossible'.
Actually I find it very exciting. The hunt is on now. Already influence by solar neutrino flux has been experimentally eliminated as a cause.
I'm waiting to see how long it takes for mainstream physics to catch on to the Scalar Wave theories, which seem to me to provide a very good explanation. Not holding my breath.
But here's a thought. If it is possible to *force* isotope decay rates to vary, and the effect can be intensified when artificially generated, then... there's possibly a way to mass-decontaminate radioactive contaminated areas. A 'ray gun' that makes unstable isotopes disintegrate very rapidly? What a very useful thing. All kinds of applications. Fixing Japan, terminating nuclear power plants, squibbing nuclear warheads at a distance...
Such a thing would change the world.
The thing is, it seems it's quite easy to generate Scalar Waves. According to Nikola Tesla, and a few others anyway. Energy density waves in the space-time metric. Not hard at all. It's detecting them that is the hard part.
Interesting post. Bonus points for use of "squibbing."
btw, i am sure you are aware of this but whenever one tries to mod up or down a post, one gets the following error
An error occurred at /vote/comment/1581236/1/vote/upanddown/d64641ae5b0bcc2b5b9ab8f22352a905.
Error Description: 403: Forbidden
moding is strictly verboden
7.0 E-quake at Vanatu...no tsunami detected. Watch for possible corresponding quakes around pacific rim.
Ever heard of natural cycles? Sure it's getting hotter but it's not because of what some small humans are causing. Man cannot fight nature.
The Fukashima reactors are busy having there radioactive water scrubbed by me and a few friends... just to let you know, I don't do diddly to the water in the lower part of the reactor, actually they don't know if there is any. My programs have been continually sabotaged but because of an avid Zerohedger, I was unplugged from the net.
These babies shoulda blown or melted long ago, hmmm.
That darn HAARP keeps comin up. So, they began to meltdown before the earthquake and HAARP was used to clear ionizes gas from the atmosphere before it blew, the even more energized particles hightailed to the crust, caused an earthquake/tsunami via vibrating crystals. Cooling goes out, Netrons bored holes to the frozen methane gas table and kaboom. Wow. Now methane everywhere, thus all the meltdowns, what next
Welcome to sUn dAy! From your friendly crew @ Asteroids ' R ' Us...
P. Effin S. Thanks for the JUNK BUTTON!
Junk button is on strike - coding error.
Likely cause - 01110100011010000110010100100000011100000111001101111001011000110110100001101001011000110010000001110000011011110111011101100101011100100010000001101111011001100010000001101001011001110110111001101111011100100110000101101110011000110110010100100000011000100111001001101111011010110110010100100000011101000110100001100101001000000110100101101110011101000110000101110010011101110110010101100010
I like you ! <o>->1
Trade well! If you do? Anymore...
Anybody have an idea how much Bernanke is up on his QE1 nad QE2 bond purchases? I am guessing 10% or $100B on $1.2T of purchases. Hearing no mention about these gains anywhere in media.
For my first Chemistry class in college I decide to focus a research paper on the hole in the Ozone layer. It was a big deal back then. All the public media, Time, Newsweek, etc were extolling the dangers of the hole. I then tracked the articles back to the science journal articles that those articles were based on. It became very clear that no journalist ever read more than the extract of those articles. The science behind the theory was tenous at best. It did however prove beneficial to GE who profited from the new technology to make CFCs extinct. So when Climate Theory came out I did some research into the science behind it and it didn't take long to see it was a house not built on sand by rather more of a swamp.
That said I agree polution is bad and we should work to eliminate polution. I went two years without a vehicle using pedal power for transporation to and from two jobs. But that was because I needed to not because I wanted to. I think a lot of people like the idea of no polution but they aren't ready to give up the good life. What is even more interesting to me is that the richer a society gets it becomes relatively more clean. If you go to the developing world I don't think you will find a manufacturing environment that is palatable.
I suspect that most of the intelligent behind climate theory don't believe it any more than the most ardent disenters on this board. But I think they probably view it as a noble cause to rid the world of polution in general. I suspect they fully embrace the greater good theory.
I think that we should enforce our regulations on all goods sold in the USSA. If you want to sell your goods to Americans than you need to pay minimum wage (in dollars) and you need to conform to all environmental regulations. If not sell your products somewhere else.
I have no idea which side is more correct in regards to AGW or Climate Change. I do know the climate computer modelers are the ones who got left behind when the best and the brightest were lured to Wall Street; and we all know how well their models worked. I suspect we will not have to wait for a mega accident or natural physical disaster. As the world splinters into paranoid groups we are quite likely to get serious about killing each other at any time. Humans are a bit odd that way.
Q/S Just take the " Short Cut" Hypersonic Projectiles!!!
Hint, Hint?
oh god!
release my mother's soul from its dream!
mankind can do no more. appease.
the misery of the living and the remorse of the dead.
Ok, I hate to break up the kabuki theatre, but look at the op's name.
"Guy McPherson". Guy Mic-Fear-sun. http://inogolo.com/pronunciation/McPherson
Puntastic...
The list is a boring one anyway, and doesn't cover much better and more likely ones - MRSA + flu pandemic is a good one, as is rampant nanobot cloud, bioweapon release (virus to kill or a bacteria that eats all the oil / turns all plant waste into alcohol etc etc).
To counter, a much more interesting one (semi-NSFW, but its the weekend, so peek away):
http://www.stevemcpherson.co.uk/1998/12/11/science-is-sex/
"Scarlet Oud.
Oud (also known as Agarwood) is the dark resinous heartwood that forms in Aquilaria trees (native to southeast asia) when they become infected with a type of mould. Oud has had ancient significance and religious connotations and is sometimes used as incense in temples. As a result this is a complex and multi-layered scent redolent of thick smoke, honey, wood, green shoots and mould. All, incredibly, derived from one source, the note of pure animalic Oud."
http://www.mycommunitycreative.com/projects/illuminum/collection.html?pi... [riddle me why a commercially available, high end perfume which is stocked by Harrods amongst others, with its own website - http://www.illuminumperfume.com/ has a mirror image where the original creation is left? Rush job, not through commercial channels is the most likely cause].
As worn by Princesses everywhere1. And yes, that does say "pure animal based Oud". i.e. Not the kind you get from plants.
Reference? A lot of the brains around here seem to being used as a growth medium.
The article may be a joke. The AGW propaganda squad that showed up to comment is not.
AGW propagand squad? More likely Cass Sunsteins bumboys giving their rectums a rest....
Scarlet Oud? Get long vvsi 20k.
Just kidding. Diamonds are "Fillet",
If silver is an industrial metal, diamonds are cheaper than sand. Cartels setting prices? Stock piling and fixing prices? Congo / Zimbabwe chaos kills as they dig 2' in the ground to take them out? [and that really is a $5 removal cost].
Or... just make them, like the Russians do. Shit, even candle flame is made of nano-diamonds. http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/news/archive/2011/Title,72748,en.html (Irony of the 20th C - manufactured symbol of love, costs blood and lives to get and maintain... and still 40% divorce rate.)
Ahh.. got you. Served badly done and vastly overpriced unless you know the right people - who will either serve it bloody and hung for 36 days or not at all.
p.s. Appreciate the tip - all cash now though. Cluck cluck cluck.
Hey Gus "Chicken Little" McPherson you forgot viruses, black hole production at the LHC, methane clathrate upwellings, massive volcanism, Lhasa fever, crop loss by fungus explosions, attacks by aliens, massive solar coronal ejections, school boredom syndrom, flash mobs, attacks of zombifies, gulf stream shifts, toxic plankton explosions, and frogs falling from the sky. As for me, I'm most worried about a beer ban and subsequent viotlend civil unrest.
beer ban??? I would literally fucking kill over that. I'm not kidding.
I need to get off my ass and figure out how to make wine out of all the apples and peaches I grow. My motivation to do anything has gone right at the window. Knowing all this shit going on and everything I do seems totally pointless. Everyday is a struggle.
If you have a house paid off you're better off than 9/10. Rent rooms out perky hot chicks!
Things are depressing, but once resigned to the situation, one begins to look forward to the unknown new world. Countries go through the economic tunnel of darkness all the time and always manage to come out the other side. Happens all the time. Looks like it's going to be our turn now. My only hope is that the big one does not occur with the current regime in place.
I just planted a bunch of fruit trees last year. No real production this year but next year they'll start to come on. I plan on slicing and dehydrating them for snacks. Wine is still cheap enough to buy. Why not get sacks of sugar and make white lightening --- 3-4 days. Spike the punch with it or use it in your car.
.
homemade peach wine, sounds like a noble project
Rubbie Dubbie... Ya flaming { yield curve} DART<
me too
Beer ban?? I thought he said Beer Band.
Beer ban is fighting words, bitchez!
That's why home brewing is so important.
hear, hear! 5gal per bitchez...
Does anyone else feel like a piece of fudge in the sun after reading this? I know it's all true, and have for sometime, but reality is a real bitch. I spent nearly 20 years working in the sheetmetal trade, been laid off for the last 3 as most of my friends are also. I was enrolled in hvac service classes starting this monday. Not sure what I was thinking. Still clinging on to hope i guess. I already decided im going to drop out monday and just go apply at JackNtheBox. No fkn kidding. My house is paid off, my only concerns are keeping the net(mainly for porn) and the cable on and the utilities and last but not least cold beer.
I probably should just concentrate on being happy and stop reading this crap. I know it's going to blow up sooner or later so it's not going to be a surprise. I got a 20 pack chillin right now.
Find something that you're interested in and passionate about. If it isn't killing people, or illegal, get stuck in. Heck, if you're at a loose end, get your buddies together, take a look at all of your properties (and neighbours) and work out what needs repairing.
Summer months, free time, practical hands could lead to you fixing up the entire neighbourhood (and lots of free beers from grannies) - Orlov's rules of collapse says that a friendly neighbour is worth a lot in a collapse, so don't despair. Unlike a lot of the desk jockies losing trillions, you skills are worth something. If cash is a problem in the entire area, have an open meeting, appraise the costs communally and see what's possible. Heck, you worked sheet, you can appraise the local scrap yard for useful stuff.
Oh, and don't panic about the macro too much - be aware enough to dodge the bullets, but never let it get you down. Unless you like have to model 1st strike, gigadeath and extinction protocols, when yes - it can be a bit grim.
Global Warming? Really?
I first I thought I accidentally book marked dailykos. Then I loled.
There is bias at both ends of the scientific interpetations of global weather status. In the end the bias' only dilutes and distorts the essential and fundamental question. Is industrialization healthy for human beings? For you and I, does it make sense to live next door to power plants, industrial manufacturing facities, waste plants, oil and gas extraction sites, nuclear power plants, industrial farm operations, Union Carbide, Monsanto manufacturing plants etc etc? The discussion of the issues devolves into whether temperatures have risen 1 degree of 1/2 degree over the last 50 years. And this argument will likely go on for years. Sorry to tell you but it does not matter whether the climate is cooling or warming. It does not matter if there are CO2 credits or international agreements on any of this. Fundamentally humans like to shit where they eat. The proclivity toward this behavior only describes the nature of the species. Fueled by greed, there really is only one interpetation you can make about human beings; they are a rather crude and brutal species. If the pinnacle of evolution is present day reality one would have to really look at the definition of the word evolve. It need not necessarily indicate expansion from the standpoint of sanity and balance. Choices have been agreed to by the collective that got us here. Somehow we were convinced that all of this would be good for us. This is all coming into question now. What kind of world do you want to live in? Are you willing or interested to create a different reality instead of the one you have been force fed?
The first two threats are utter BS. The third, however, is real. Given the number of nuclear plants, the frequency of total meltdowns, the severity of the damage and the length of remediation (i.e. never) the damage within 50 years will radically reduce the quality of life on this planet.
Throw in tons of depleted uranium and it is done. And we did it to ourselves.
Interesting article, but for an average working Joe like me, the end of days at some point in the future is the least of my worries at the moment, it's how am I going to keep a roof over the families head and food on the table for the next couple of months that occupies my mind.
Don't be afraid of the radiation, it's good for you...
i radiate cold shafts of broken glass
Yes, just ask Ann Coulter.
Read through how humans are animals and global warning is "scientific" and had to stop wasting my time. Unbelievable. This is the most worthless piece of garbage ever posted on ZH, including all comments I've read.
La Tour - People are still having sex
(hello, lover - hello, lover)
Have you noticed, that people are still having sex. all the denouncement had absolutely no effect. parents and counsellors constantly scorn them. but people are still having sex and nothing seems to stop them.
Do you realise, that people are still having sex, they’ve been told not to, perhaps they are perplexed. when you see them holding hands they’re making future plans to engage in the activity, do you understand?
People are still having sex, lust keeps on lurking. nothing makes them stop, this aids thing’s not working.
People are still having sex...
People are still having sex...
People are still having sex...
Yeah, you've never met my wife.
Not breeding though:
http://www.economist.com/node/21526350?fsrc=scn/tw/te/ar/asiasloneyhearts
Having sex? Do you know how much energy it takes for just one shag?
About 16 gallons of gas equivilant,
I can do the math in Coal or BTU's or sugar beet's'
You need to tell these people to knock it off, they are destroying the planet with Carbon Dioxide,(except for the plants,who like it a lot).
Sex should be outlawed.Fucking humans!
If a shag is 16 gallons of gas how much is a monkey spank?
Work out the ratios - you're using two-stroke after all.
i cannot take this fool author seriously as he regurgitates facts without checking them and shows himself to be just another fish, swimming in the idiocy of al gore's global warmining religious movement.
the northeast passage has been open for much if not all of the summer seasons of the past 90 years. the cold war and many other factors such as poor ice forecasting for the boats has impeded it's use , that as well as the collapse of the soviet union and its shipipng industries and northern ports.
so yea, this is just another idiot author
Lest we forget, Lord Monckton unleashed: Is Obama Poised to Cede US Sovereignty? - YouTube
Well, being one to usually give the benefit of a doubt, I read most of this until I came to a flat out LIE.
Anyone who has seen as many summers/falls/winters/springs as I have KNOW that the climate is cyclical.
(i.e) things change, they do not remain static.This goes for the climate as well.
There have studies after studies showing this debunked, and in fact the opposite opinion (derived from data) is there is to be coming a mini ice age.
Our illustrious writer penned this, and I stopped reading.
"Nature is responding with hybrid bears, suggesting the near-term loss of all polar bears"
As of last year, an actual HEAD count was done on the Polar Bear population(in reference to this mans claims).
The findings, actual HEAD count, was there are more Polar Bears NOW than have been ever counted previously.(unless you believe Al Gorwhore)
http://www.examiner.com/seminole-county-environmental-news-in-orlando/canada-s-growing-polar-bear-population-becoming-a-problem-locals-say
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12738644/ns/world_news-world_environment/t/wild-find-half-grizzly-half-polar-bear/
http://polarbearnews.com/tag/polar-bear-and-brown-bear-hybrid
The crap is pandemic.
When actual FIELD reports, and counts come up with this stuff, it's not a Theory,or an Opinion.
It's like the fingers and toes most humans have 20.
Facts are facts, theories, and charts, and conjectures,postulations, are just that........................opinions, and guesstimates.
We seem to think since we are humans, we are the arbiters of truth in every field, and history and science/s.
We ARE the end all to all.
WE, as a species have not been around long enough to do a damned thing except postulate, and make predictions, and screw shit up.
I've known what you say for years, it isn't rocket science. we in effect live in a closed system. enough disruption and a new equlibrium is established. there are no other options. I do think you excluded a few potentials. meteror strike, massive yellowstone volcano like activity, rise super bug spreading global influenze type activity, war (nuclear).
the optimists are silly, because they have to win each and every time, statistics say that can't happen, and we have already had a number of great extinctions.
In trught I think intellignece is an evolutionary dead end that kills itslef off, which is why we haven't found signs of other intelligent life. sure it arises, but compared to time frames on a univeral scal (like the dinosours) we die off very quickly.
Will being pessimistic save you from the disasters you see befalling the optimists?
dcb,
Our science may be too inferior to find signs of other intelligent life...they arrive here on their own initiative and work either to help us or against us (hence Hawkins' call to not contact them)!
On a universal scale...we are a long way from knowing other realities exist.
Thanks for sharing.
Science no longer means a thing, I dont think Science is taught anymore,
Only trend Science,party-line science, as in Building Seven was just depressed and a few chairs were on fire so it just got pissy and died'
Then Global warming was shown to be ANOTHER ACADEMIC CASH COW,
Courtesy of the Norwich university meteorolgy ponzi crew i think.
and has furthe been proven a hoax by NASA,s own data.
http://www.news2012.info/nasa-2012/globe-cooling-faster-than-anticipated-and-to-continue-over-next-20-30-years-says-accuweathercom-video_bb35afd06.html
But do not let that interfere with your firmly held programming and cushy retirement plan, after all,what could be more honorable than a lifetime engaged in fraud,conceit and paracitism?
The word Homo Sapiens is Latin,(very clever shit,is Latin,a dead Language,except for Lawyers and Scientists).
It means Knowing man,and assumes Evolution to be a fact,it also assumes the existance of previous embodyment of the HOMO genus,
Homo weatherman and Homo Granolamuncher are a few I can think of,
The evidence for these Creatures is SPARSE AND SPECULATIVE at best,
a vast number of competent scientists of many disiplines strongly object to the Speculation without Science that is SOLD AS "EVOLUTION".
The cost for a natural disaster is also a speculation based on what?
The real estate prices for New Orleans or Fukujima the day before the
WEATHER hit?
Over Speculated,over built,over priced buildings,belonging to the bankrupt banks of bankrupt nations?
Jeffrey dollars from Toys are Us?
$1000,000,000,000,000 Jeffrey $= how much in real value.
Human cost not even addressed here as incalculable.
If speculation is now Science,allow me to speculate on the coming master species' It will be HOMO EXTOTIONISTA, OR HOMO PISSEDOFFICUS.
ABSOLUTE,UTTER HORSE SHIT FROM THE AUTHOR OF THE ARTICLE.
SPECULATION AND PSEUDO-SCIENCE CRAP!
But why should anyone on ZH care,after all,you only gave up your tax dollars to subsidise the education of this party line Buffoon.
http://www.news2012.info/nasa-2012/globe-cooling-faster-than-anticipated...
Eric the Reds son left Greenland in the 10century,It was getting too damn chilly for the cattle,he found a nice warm spot where grapes grow
wild in the warm weather, called it Vinland he did,but we call it Nova Scotia,(MMMM Toasty warm).
The climate changes,comets drop by now and then,jungle tribes watch stars and make predictions, this is neither science or a reason to go ape shit,
Civilizations grow/shrink/change, then you die wondering if the ghost stories are true.
This is my Rant.
Well, and priests.
Pax vobiscum.
Semper Fidelis.
Bush whacker!
And U.S. Marines. Sorry.
Spastica Maximus! Relax, and learn! YEN
Yeah, and "Spastica Rex" is poor Latin.
/NOT a Latin scholar
Pax yerbags mofous.
mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. former altar boy
Just a thought: If we are going to be extinct, shouldn't we be on the endangered species list and be able to do what we want without being ragged on for driving a car?
Global Warming again? What a one note samba and its not even in key!
Kevin Flynn: The thing about perfection is that it's unknowable. It's impossible, but it's also right in front of us all the time.
I/Q 124 [ Hung Over ] /
Speaking of billion-dollar weather disasters...Irene is about to be announced by NWS/NHC. Keep an eye on this storm.
houston +3
What the fuck is this shit?
The climate of this planet is dynamic. In simplistic terms it moves from cold to hot and hot to cold and it always will, so long as the planet is in existance. We give ourselves too much credit in imagining that we can affect this dynamic in any way. You need only to take a river boat or white water rafting trip down the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon to witness the eons of time that have passed untouched by human hands to realize how insignificant we are in the scheme of things. Geologists already know that thousands of years from now Manhatten will be ecased under 500 feet of ice. Deal with it and get on with life.
Wow, not just "2 to 5 years" or "3 years" but 3.1 years. Two siginificant digits to predict climate collapse.
Self evident misanthropic horseshit.
Is their not a law agains utter horse shit? their should be.
I would like to call it the 'Total Horse Shit Act'
Should I start an online petition?
I wish someone would. Unfortunately it sells page clicks; due to emotionalism.
Double Rubbish
Stupid global warming propaganda - How does this stupidity find its way on ZH? If I wanted to hear dogma from AL Gore I would watch MSNBC - the network that spends 90% of its time talking about gay rights, what a bad guy George Bush was and global warming; whilst the global economy collapses. The minute the guy starts talking about "hybrid" polar bears my brain tunes out. Rubbish. - 1 stars.
This thread can be resumed as follows in the bard's own words : Much ado about nothing.
(But with more coming). The appendix is mine.
more nonsense and self-sarking psychosis from a person just.unable.to.stop.doing.it.com
how many times, each day, to well-minded strangers hafta tell you they can't understand you, but find you "amusing", before the quantum field collapses on your actual problems, toy-boy?
2-3, plus my record of what you actually tried to pull on me, not to mention ori?
you're insane, dude! own it!
mirror gazing as usual. Keep it up troll.
AGW as "settled science" is so easy to refute they're hoping none of us notice.
1. There is no aspect of science that's "settled". Our knowledge of everything in the universe and here on Earth is always changing in light of new discoveries. So cut out the "settled science" crap, it doesn't exist.
2. For a theory to be credible it must be replicable by independent researchers. So, all you AGW true believers, why do the gurus of your religion not turn over all their data to the scientific community for review. That would be the RAW data, not the massaged and manipulated data. Secondly, the AGW religion must publish its Bible, ie the methodology behind its climate models, to the scientific community, for review. Only then can we determine whether the AGW proponents are doing more than committing fraud.
3. I would like any credible scientist to explain to the scientific community how the data is gathered, whether the work that WattsUp did in exposing the NOAA weather station heat island problems was taken into account and how, and how much of the entire globe is represented in the data samples. Before the age of satellites, the 80+ % of the globe that is largely uninhabited, such as the oceans and other remote locations, would not have had data samples from, say, 1900 on. Please explain your methodology in making up data for the billions of miles of Earth that has never been continuously data-sampled for weather(temp et al).
Just as soon as the AGW believers publish all those things to the scientific community at large, withour reservation, can we get on with determining the truth of the matter.
The fact that to date the AGW "scientists" have refused to give up all of those things, means they have something stinky to hide.
Thank you! Well said!
Hey Skipjack, why don't you ask Flakmeister to share his authored, 20 plus peer reviewed papers? As per his self published CV below, he should have something to offer, right??
Flakmeister
Vote up! 0
Vote down! 0
M. Sc. in Theoretical Physics, Ph.D. Experimental Physics,
Post Doctroral Experience: U. of Chicago, U. Michigan, Visiting scientist U. of Manchester,
Staff Scientist at Brookhaven National Lab
Primary author of ~20 peer reviewed research papers....
Referee for the Physical Review
Internationally known: Invited seminars and colloquia in 7 countries, 3 continents.... ~20 of the top 100 research universities in US, places like Stanford, CalTech. Featured speaker at 2 international conferences....
Over 20 years experience basic research....
And while not related 5 years experience in structured finance on Wall St.
Hope that helps....
Well, TD, you certainly unleashed a furious argument. Personally, I don't believe in man made global warming but that's not to say we don't have a horrific problem rushing toward us in the not too distant future. Have you guys looked at the hockey stick chart of population growth? Has anybody read Jared Diamond? What happens to a species when it exhausts the resources it needs to survive? Human growth rates are unsustainable.
NOW you're talking about the real issue, the 20 ton elephant in the room that NO one has as yet dared to touch with a 10 foot pole. With all the "boomers" in the world living into their 90's thanks to all our medical advances, no one retiring because they can't afford it, and thus no new jobs open due to attrition we have one hell of a population problem on our hands. Guess why farming and food are on everyone's minds now. Malthus, of course, tells us how these over population issues are ultimately addressed and it's not pretty.
Have you been in an Aeroplane? one of the new flying machine thangs?
This planet is not overcrowded or unsustainable, thet is utter horse shit.
We have not even started to terraform this awesome planet,
it is self sustainability in your face.
No reason for hunger or need on this rock!
I guess you do not garden much and whine a lot because you are a liberal halfwitt.
Get a shovel, dig a hole,plant some seed's , water daily,
For every seed you plant you will get MORE.
Exhaust? not even close, neurotic grandmother.
just the mere fact that we need how much energy and manpower to keep all those 442 nuclear reactors cooling. in the event ANYTHING happens, another major earthquake, a small meteor, volanic acitivity, having those melt down would doom all sentient beings on the planet. period.
that alone should warrant decommisioning all of them. immediately.
Global warming is just another way to control your life and nothing more. The scientists involved changed the numbers to suit their needs. They never alllowed peer review and did their best to debunk views that did not agree with them. The scientists stripped out water vapor and do their best to debunk solar activity. They try to strip out volcanic activity. Volcanic activity dumps more CO2 into the envrionment then all of humankinds emissions since we started the industrial revolution. Most of you are smart people and know anyone can manipulate numbers to make your model fit the mold. Until scientists can sit at the table and discuss the issues and theories and data can be peer reviewed I tend not to believe it. Basically they are trying to start a scheme to sell fricking air and screw states that use coal fired plants.
Totally different then pollution. But when all else fails tell everyone we are all going to die because of CO2 and then do your best to make trillions off the dumb asses of the world. I rely more of the forecaster in the farmer almanac then these idiots. He is calling for global cooling and his forecasts have been proven to be accurate 90% of the time. People are naive if they think we humans can indeed control the climate or stop climate change. Climate changes happens all the time on this planet and there is nto a dam thing you or I can do about it. Hell the next thing coming out of their mouths will be we need control population of humans because they emit CO2 which is used actually by plant life. Kooky science is like kooky economics. Read research and you will find the truth.
Hell even after they got caught making false data and phony models people still believe this crap. Bring me facts and bring me real scientific research and I may believe it. When we have a heat wave out comes these damned idiots and they forget that we just had one of the longest and coldest winters on record.
+ 1
"Hell the next thing coming out of their mouths will be we need control population of humans because they emit CO2 which is used actually by plant life"
You humans better watch out. They already put Kows in their sights based on flatulation, now that's real science there!
They like to convert them when they're most gullible:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvkTavVteaw
I think I broke a rib watching this one...
http://youtu.be/jwhHmDy-t1Y
Are you of The Body?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XuLBzWTeK6I
Is that an Odumbo campaign clip?
This one?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a61fPIgJfgs&NR=1
Gotta love the Hollywood Fool-Aide so many people swill these days. At least Odumbo and Global warming hacks do.
Was that Ron Paul in that clip?
Monckton hands the faithfull bitchz their arse's @ National Press Club Debate 2011 :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ma6cnPLcrtA
We are going to wipe ourselves out, I too believe. Mother Nature and billions of short-sighted people with no sense, and no care for what lessons human history has had to teach us will take care of that. Species extinction can and does happen everyday. Homo Sapiens do not appear to be continuing to evolve as a species, and we all know what that means.