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Guest Post: Three Times Is Enemy Action

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Wed, 08/24/2011 - 19:55 | 1597359 Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

One, two, three times a lady...

 

It seems like a long ramble of nothing... 

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:32 | 1597506 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Interesting but conventional in his views..... edit it down by 80% and more of us might pay attention. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:52 | 1597601 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

He could be a Russian writer with that wordiness.  As a good Russki you should know that.  It would take Dostoyevsky 60 pages to write, "I took a dump".  The only book I've ever read where the movie was 10 times better was "Doctor Zhivago".  The book was like a slow death.  The movie had Omar Shariff, Rod Steiger and Julie Christie.  It actually moved forward. 

I can sum up this article with the following sentence.  "The Fed is fucking us and will continue to fuck us as long as they can." 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:42 | 1597949 rocker
rocker's picture

Geeezzzz. That was long, but I did read it.  The simularities of Japan and China are scary. 

That's why I say. "We are Worse than Japan Now."

As the Bozo on the Floor of the CME said on CNBC. The FED is trying to prevent a Great Depression.  Mission Not Accomplished.

Because they are holding up the main problem. Let the Banks who need to or should have Failed Fail already. GS, BAC, C  and WFC.

TBTF needs to Fail to let the honest ones shine on.  All we have done is make them bigger.  Geeezzzzzz.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:46 | 1598703 A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000
A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000's picture

Ditto.

 

Dude, ever hear the words "Executive Summary?"

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:50 | 1597590 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

The last sentence, "There isn't any way----etc.etc.--"; is what I believe is called a "run on sentence"; it certainly would not have gotten by my 11th grade English Teacher. But then Universities are not what they once were.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:53 | 1597604 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I believe this article is what is known as a run on article.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:59 | 1597832 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

I ran off from this article.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:07 | 1597651 UGrev
UGrev's picture

no, no, no.. you got it all wrong.. here, let Eddie sing it for you:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wo1-sI7MOQ

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:43 | 1597952 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

+ a trillion oz. of silver.. for old SNL ref.!!!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:57 | 1597994 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

He said they are going to let all the bubble money go "POOF" in a European banking collapse.

I don't think it will be that easy, since the game is largely being run by European banking.

I could see debt forgiveness for all the European bankers as being part of a banker-initiated plan.

That would make all the depositers and shareholders take losses, and the governments.

I could believe this if the plan would give the bankers control of all the collateral, but absolution from debt.

That would be the ideal position for bankers to run the deflationary game that they used to run before the 20th century.

Bankers make the rules and the plans, for now...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 19:56 | 1597360 Debtless
Debtless's picture

...brevity. you just don't see it that much anymore...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:34 | 1597518 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Not on the "World Wide Waste of time", anyway. talk may be cheap, but electrons are free. And apparently all those girls who were in typing class when I  took it in high school have become philosophers and market timing experts. Simply amazing.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:54 | 1597607 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

"...brevity. you just don't see it that much anymore..."

 

My wife would wholeheartedly disagree with your statement. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:03 | 1597364 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

you got me with the 4th paragraph copied below ---in which you tell us your motivation to write a piece of shit is so that you can say "i told you so" ---i stopped reading after that piece of shit paragraph. i do appreciate your honesty so i won't cross you off. when i read a turd that someone introduces as golden, i will never read another word of  their untrustworthy craparoonery. i appreciate your headsup warning me, your reader, to reconsider reading. 

 

 

"Nevertheless, despite the fact that I clearly can’t be trusted, and consequently won’t persuade many people to change their views, and even if there’s nothing startlingly original about what I’m going to say, I think it’s worth laying out what I believe to be the correct explanation of the crash as it’s still happening, so that later on, when we’re tempted to blame various scapegoats – derivatives traders, European politicians, bankers, our neighbors, immigrants, the opposing political party, etc., etc. – we’ll perhaps remember that one of these analyses was predictive of the timing and scale of the event at the time, while the others are invidious reconstructions after the fact."

 


Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:47 | 1597962 oldman
oldman's picture

S, instead of reading---you did nothing.

That was what I got out of all of this; the Fed ought not to have done a thing more after the initial collapse was softened. I agree with his nearly last paragraph:

"Of course the Fed needs to act as lender of last resort in a crisis, they’re really good at doing that, but then they never stop acting as lender of last resort, they seem to make no conceptual distinction between the lender of the last resort role and really over-the-top kinds of Keynesian stimulus, and direct, explicit targeting of the stock market (a truly bizarre and self-contradictory policy in the context of the normal, sober behavior of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States) or else they’re just no good at leaving the limelight. Instead of backing away from the economy after the crisis and letting it equilibrate, they endlessly tease and torture it with their capricious antics, thinking they’ve saved the world by creating this or that new bubble, and then being comically surprised when they stop blowing air in and the air all comes back out."

Lender of last resort is fine with me, but to give the banks 'free money" to continue their ignorant and greedy speculation and then to abet them in manipulation of markets---well, this sort of pisses one off, now, does it not?

Anyway, I want thank you for doing nothing; it is a fine example to all of us do-nothing dudes      om

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 19:55 | 1597375 Concentrated po...
Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

Good things, when short, are twice as good.  ~Baltasar Gracian

 

Too bad it wasn't good...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 19:54 | 1597381 RacerX
RacerX's picture

too much blahblah. get to the point.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 19:57 | 1597389 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

People seem surprised by the suddenness of the decline in the gold market.

That would be more logical.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 19:58 | 1597390 magpie
magpie's picture

uh because you aren't allowed to short the Chinese markets ?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:02 | 1597410 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Fed meddling so much in the economy and trying to centrally plan everything seems to say they are desperate. They act as if they must control everything or it will fall apart. It's that behavior that scares me. That, and the fact that only the central banks know what is going on behind the curtain and I'm a pig about to get slaughtered.

 

Peak Federal Reserve.

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:58 | 1597625 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I have not gotten slaughtered yet but I am definitely in the cattle car.

And look at those futures rebounding from the news about Steve Jobs.  This is getting so boring.  Futures are red at bedtime, neutral during breakfast and greener than a shamrock by lunchtime. 

Bring on that Cat-2 hurricane.  Perhaps it will wipe out the entire fucking set of temples to thievery I see out my window. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:02 | 1597639 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...you may want to see what's behind their curtain but, you know it's just crypto fascism devouring life. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=m9kkZaQeugM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHe_EGT-V1g

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:02 | 1597412 Shineola
Shineola's picture

Stocks are a way to loan money to people you don't really know and shouldn't really trust.

 

Back n the day, there were dividends to compensate you for the risk.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:07 | 1597428 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

You, Sir, know from where you speak. - Ned

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:37 | 1597533 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Ah, I remember those days; when a new Chevy station wagon cost 2900 dollars. But that was before our Federal Politicians sold the country to the Chinese.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:05 | 1597421 kito
kito's picture

And yet that’s what the Fed’s quite likely to try to do, again, not because they really think it will work, it will be clear to them, by then, that QE2 ended up doing enormous damage, but because the political impulse to be seen to seem to be doing something will win out, in the absence of any better option.

 

ben hasnt been doing much of late, printing presses are running cold. its evident that as long as there is no defaltionary collapse or stock market plunge, he might just leave well enough alone....

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:06 | 1597426 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

"Chinese people have had six decades of this sort of treatment, and they’ve gotten pretty good at doing things in unison. (The Cultural Revolution was very good training.) That’s why their market tends to sometimes move up and down in relatively straight lines."

and a great summary of our "Progressive" agenda.

don't cha' know.

- Ned

 

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:06 | 1597427 Galen Slade
Galen Slade's picture

Wow.  I want the 5 minutes of my life back that I just spent reading that, that, what the hell WAS that, anyway?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:01 | 1597632 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Penance.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:11 | 1597440 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Nice article.  The author definately "gets it".  Imagninary "assets" can neither be created or destroyed.  Statements like, "8 T$ of wealth was lost in the recent downturn" are just plain silly.  The illusion of wealth as digits on an brokerage account is false.  A very important concept that escapes the financial press outside of ZH.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 22:31 | 1597929 csmith
csmith's picture

Trane, you nailed it. Wealth is a Boeing 787 or an Apple iPad or a Google algorithm, purchased by a customer of his own free will at a price which makes a profit for the producer. This stream of profit alone sustains the enterprise, and has value in its own right, as some portion may eventually be thrown off. All else is noise.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:13 | 1597446 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

One of the next American looters. Smell her hand.

http://www.peopleofwalmart.com/47631

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:14 | 1597451 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

A long read but very good.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:19 | 1597458 Species8472
Species8472's picture

When the fed buys a bond, what if the seller just buys another bond, that's what the primary dealers would do, they are paid to do that. And since the gov sells bonds as fast as the fed buys, where did the stimulus come from?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:28 | 1597490 Shineola
Shineola's picture

Excellent point!    I felt no stimulation at all from the alleged stimulus.

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:53 | 1597591 Juan Wild
Juan Wild's picture

it stimulated a rally in ZH subscribers and molotov cocktail manufacturing.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 23:31 | 1598063 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

@Species - via banksters sluicing some of the rake-off on the shell-game wit the bonds into the stock market.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:33 | 1597475 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

This wasn't written by a real philosopher - and I will challenge the OP to come forth & engage.

 

http://www.princeton.edu/~dcloud/

1993 - 1998
Founding Partner, Firebird Fund Management.

1993, 1989/90
Studied at Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs.

1990 - 1992
Equity Analyst, W. I. Carr, Hong Kong.

1983 - 1989
Did various jobs in the People's Republic of China. Learned to speak Mandarin.

 

Problem is - look at the CV. And I can't find any papers printed since 2006 for him. Nor can I get his PHD from archives. In phd circles, that's a major fucking huge problem.

Between 2006 and 2011 he produced.. what? A fucking E-book. No paper citations. No in-house publications. No presentations at seminars. Apart from this - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022519307005425

And that relies on the other two co-author's specialities far more than his - in fact, I'd say 100%.

Link to Kauffman's work - note the multiple papers:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?cmd=search&db=pubmed&term=Kauff...[au]&dispmax=50

Andrecut - note the age / length of CV / papers

http://www.skatelescope.ca/pg/profile/andrecut

 

5 years - 1 self published "e-book" with no attempt at existing, and a co-authored paper with a couple of people doing all the work. Senior people with major talent / years / investment in the system at that.

So, Mr Cloud -

 

Who the fuck are you? Because you're wracking up a 99% deviation from the normative model of a philosophy PHD student here. A simple link to your PHD would be nice. Philosophy PHDs are usually poor as shit, desperate to publish anywhere, and don't get teaching positions without extension investment in drudge work for in-house publications & seminars.

You're doing it wrong.

 

/spooooooktastic

 

Nailing it:

 

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dcloud1/English

http://jagouldworld.blogspot.com/2010/09/daniel-cloud-on-valuing-options...

http://jagouldworld.blogspot.com/2010/08/ghost-money.html

 

These are not philosophy papers. These are (at best) political op-eds. Hint: missing about 3000 footnotes, quotations and citations.

 

 

Fucking spook.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:40 | 1597545 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Dude, it's an internet blog; did you read any of the other crap on here. But, thanks for the investigation; now we know he's a real phoney, and not just another imitation phoney.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:45 | 1597567 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

No, it is worse than that.

He claims he has a PHD from an Ivy league - and his "papers" contain lines such as:

 

"Here's the Black-Scholes equation itself, straight from Wikipedia" - AND HE DOES A FOOTNOTE TO THE WIKI PAGE.

 

To equate this to the ZH experience, this would be like the new "hot shit young blood" rolling up with a copy of Das Kapital and a Iphone claiming that he was the next Soros, then using his Apple laptop to attempt to trade, whilst using "hip trader language".

 

It. Is. THAT. Laughable.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:55 | 1597611 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Yes, yes. you're right. It is funny. I'm not reading much from Academia these days, but I tend to doubt there are many footnotes to a WIKI page; at least I hope not.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 21:11 | 1597664 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Now you've got me doubting myself... What if Princeton PHDs are actually this bad.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCbfMkh940Q

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:44 | 1597564 Galen Slade
Galen Slade's picture

He may be a spook, but your analysis is just plain spooky! (in a good way)  Could you maybe do another analysis like that on a guy by the name of Barry Soteoro/Barack Hussain Obama-  of Columbia/Harvard fame?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:45 | 1597569 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

That's above my pay grade.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:48 | 1597584 Galen Slade
Galen Slade's picture

Perfect.  +1

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 01:01 | 1598218 gwiss
gwiss's picture

Why the hell would he submit a philosophy paper to ZH?  Nice try at making your dick seem bigger by pointing out how small his surely must be.  Let me know when TD posts your writing, slick.  In the mean time, you got anything to say about the points he is making?

Crickets.  Thought so.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:02 | 1598589 gsb2118
gsb2118's picture

Schro?dinger's crystal /

  • Author:
  • Title:
    Schro?dinger's crystal / Daniel Cloud.
  • Published:
    2006.
  • Description:
    ii, 231 leaves, bound.
  • Holdings Information:


    • Location (guide):
      Offsite - Place Request for delivery within 2 business days
    • Call Number:
      LD1237.5D 2006 .C668
    • Status:
      Not checked out

    • Location (guide):
      Offsite - Place Request for delivery within 2 business days
    • Call Number:
      MICROFLM FC32- 15,537
    • Status:
      Not checked out
    • Reproduction Note:
      Microfilm. Ann Arbor, Mich. : UMI, 2006. 1 microfilm reel ; 35 mm.

    • Location (guide):
      Rare Book <Offsite> - Request at Rare Book Lib (Non-Circ)
    • Call Number:
      LD1237.5D 2006 .C668
    • Status:
      Not checked out
    •  
  • Notes:
    Department: Philosophy.
    Thesis (Ph. D.)--Columbia University, 2006.
    Includes bibliographical references (leaves 224-231).
  • Material Type:
    Archival/Manuscript Material

 

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 19:43 | 1599821 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Columbia was being sloppy (see below). If I'd done it right, I'd have listed the following:

Mark Couch
Seton Hall University
Assistant Professor
Dissertation: Functional Explanation: A Case Study

Daniel Cloud
Princeton University
Post-Doctoral Fellowship
Dissertation: Functionalism in Scientific Practice

http://philosophy.columbia.edu/content/recent-placements-0

 

 

Bibliographic Record Display
  • Author:
    Couch, Mark Bradley, 1971-
  • Title:
    Functionalism in scientific practice / Mark Bradley Couch.
  • Published:
    2006.
  • Description:
    v, 192 leaves, bound.
  • Notes:
    Department: Philosophy.
    Thesis (Ph. D.)--Columbia University, 2006.
    Includes bibliographical references (leaves 184-192).
  • Material Type:
    Archival/Manuscript Material

http://clio.cul.columbia.edu:7018/vwebv/holdingsInfo?searchId=704&recCou...

 

You'd think they'd get it right, but there we go. Only a student for four years, a flash in the pan. The idea of his non-existant PHD melded with the title of his thesis - (I was making an allusion to this btw - there's been a lot of schadenfreude in academic communities over it, and its topical, given the news cycle. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/gaddafi-sons-...)

The snark was ex-trader doing philosophy as was noted (poverty is a defining characteristic of most phd students) - what perhaps wasn't was the puntastic title - Schroedinger’s Crystal, which is a semi-pun on the infamous Schroedinger’s Cat. (Alive/Dead paradox). So his PHD is in a state of flux, according to Columbia and...

We have thus justified everything in the above scheme, except the main point, namely, that we wish a molecule to be regarded as a solid = crystal. The reason for this is that the atoms forming a molecule, whether there be few or many of them, are united by forces of exactly the same nature as the numerous atoms which build up a true solid, a crystal. The molecule presents the same solidity of structure as a crystal. Remember that it is precisely this solidity on which we draw to account for the permanence of the gene!...

To the physicist I wish to emphasize that in my opinion, and contrary to the opinion upheld in some quarters, quantum indeterminacy plays no biologically relevant role in them, except perhaps by enhancing their purely accidental character in such events as meiosis, natural and X-ray-induced mutation and so on -and this is in any case obvious and well recognized...

Again, the mystics of many centuries, independently, yet in perfect harmony with each other (somewhat like the particles in an ideal gas) have described, each of them, the unique experience of his or her life in terms that can be condensed in the phrase: DEUS FACTUS SUM (I have become God)

http://whatislife.stanford.edu/LoCo_files/What-is-Life.pdf

Thus, the title itself lends itself to self-negation -and his research is the origins of life, which traditionally "is doing God's work". The theme was his bio, which states "Cloud’s research interests include problems in the philosophical foundations of evolutionary and molecular biology and evolutionary game theory." 

John Forbes Nash, Jr. (born June 13, 1928) ...Serving as a Senior Research Mathematician at Princeton University during the latter part of his life...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Forbes_Nash,_Jr. 

Nash infamously replied to a question about why game theory was so negative with the phrase that went along the lines 'Well, yes, I was ill at the time and thought they were out to get me' - but his work was used heavily by places such as the Rand institute by... spooks (who were indeed keeping an eye on him later on, although not at the time of his breakdown).

 

So yes - all a bit up my own arse there, and it didn't work very well. Junks well deserved. Using Wikipedia as a source though - that still should be a hall of shame moment, although the other variety of achievements suggest it won't bother him too much.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:25 | 1597483 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The author can't be talking about the same Ben Bernanke that everyone calls "Helicopter Ben" can he? the bernank is out there. it can't be bargained with. it can't be reasoned with. it doesn't feel pity, or remorse, and it absolutely will not stop ever, until the usa dollar is dead. If it takes driving AMZN to 3000 to keep the market up nominal then that's what will happen.

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