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Guest Post: Want to Put Iran Out of Business? Here's How
Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
Want to Put Iran Out of Business? Here's How
Those attempting to pressure Iran by increasing "tensions" and thus the price of oil have it precisely backwards. The one sure way to fatally destabilize the Iranian theocracy is to adjust the demand and supply of oil so the price plummets (as it did in December 2008) to $25/barrel, and stays there for at least six months.
It has been estimated that the Iranian theocracy cannot fund its bloated bureaucracies, military and its welfare state if oil falls below around $40-$45/barrel. Drop oil to $25/barrel and keep it there, and the Iranian regime will implode, along with the Chavez regime in Venezuela.
Saber-rattling actually aids the Iranian regime by artificially injecting a "disruptive war" premium into the price of oil: they can make the same profits from fewer barrels of oil.
The way to put them out of business is drop the price of oil and restrict their sales by whatever means are available. They will be selling fewer barrels and getting less than production costs for those barrels. With no income, the regime will face the wrath of a people who have become dependent on the State for their sustenance and subsidized fuel.
How do you drop oil to $25/barrel? Easy: stop saber-rattling in the mideast and engineer a massive global recession with a side order of low-level trade war. Though you wouldn't know it from the high price of oil, the world is awash in oil; storage facilities are full, and production has actually increased a bit in North America.
Long-term, Peak Oil is a reality; but in the short-term, production is more than adequate to meet recession-suppressed demand.
The way to drop oil from $100/barrel to $25/barrel is to crush demand via global depression. Let's face it, the global economy is already slipping into depression as credit bubbles pop and austerity and rising debt service expenses bleed off disposable income.
We can nudge the global demand for oil off a cliff with a few other policies, for example, a low-grade trade war with China and Japan. Political leaders everywhere are already itching for a scapegoat, and imports are ready-made and waiting. Slap some heavy tariffs on Chinese and Japanese goods for "dumping" or some other excuse and then the inevitable counter-tariffs will be imposed on U.S. imports. Since U.S. exports to Asia are but a thin slice of imports from those nations, even a low-key trade war will have outsized negative consequences on Asian exporters.
Exports make up a relatively small percentage of Japan's GDP (ditto for the U.S.), but they contribute most of the marginal growth and profits in the Japanese economy. China is hugely dependent on exports and fixed investment in factories and real estate. There is no way the Central Government can spend its way out of the hole created in the Chinese economy as the real estate bubble pops, exports plummet and foreign direct investment dries up.
Europe is already caught in a vice of austerity and rising debt service expenses, so a depression there is already in the pipeline.
In the U.S., a $1 per gallon tax on all liquid fuels would cause short-term pain but would put significant downward pressure on oil consumption. Even without this tax, U.S. consumption will crater as the global economy contracts and Federal spending finally stops rising.
The most important fact about the global pricing of oil is that price is set on the margin. That means that if global demand falls by 10% from 80 million barrels a day (BPD) to 72 million BPD, price will not drop by 10%--it will fall far more.
It is instructive to recall that the mere threat of global depression in late 2008 sent the price of oil under $30/barrel in very short order.
Supply needs to overwhelm demand for at least six months to put the Iranian theocracy out of business. For that, the U.S. needs its exporting allies such as Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia to continue pumping even as prices collapse.
As I have often noted in my "head-fake" series on oil pricing, rapidly plummeting prices set up a positive feedback loop which further suppresses price: as regimes like Iran find their income from oil exports falling below their minimum survival level, the only way they can raise cash is by pumping more. This extra oil hitting a market awash in oil will only further suppress price.
Alternatively, they can withdraw their oil from the market in the hope that this reduction in supply will cause prices to rise. Unfortunately for Iran and Venezuela, their production isn't large enough to overcome a 10% reduction in global demand. Six months into their forced-austerity program created by their net income from oil exports falling to zero, they will find the streets filled with hungry, angry citizens.
That will be the end of those regimes.
So the first part of the solution to Iranian hegemony is to actively pursue high-visibility diplomacy in the mideast, repeatedly declare "war is not the answer," etc., and announce some major diplomatic initiatives, even if they are totally for show. That will drop the price of oil $20/barrel in short order.
Then quietly gain the support of the major exporters to continue pumping even as oil prices collapse. The Saudis and other major exporters can survive six months of low income from oil; the Iranians and the Chavez regime cannot.
Lastly, impose austerity, write down debt, squeeze lending, initiate some low-key trade wars and cut Central State spending, all of which will trigger a severe contraction in the global economy and in demand for oil.
Then once the Iranian nuclear threat has been throttled by a collapse in that regime's income stream and by a populist regime change, pro-growth policies can be restarted--and perhaps this time, if debt has been written off en masse and the predatory financial sector is finally allowed to implode in insolvency, they will actually be effective.
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US citizen thing? It is an Empire citizen thing. The Romans, British, Spanish, <fill in the blank> used to be the same way.
No. Wrong.
Romans accepted to be judged by their own standards. And some others too.
There are specificities in US citizenism.
One is hijack of humanity to hide selfish interests.
Is he really fucked up so badly?
Charles Hugh Smith is extremely bright - I know that this is a bit of a tongue in cheek article
well, I bloody hope so!
Well at least put a "Sike!" or sarc at the end...
This is nonsense. If this and if that adds up to a whole lot of "never gunna happen". Oil producing nations, whether friendly to the US or not, are on the same page--they want higher prices.
This was NOT a well thought out article.
Put Iran & Chavez out of business & you'll have to pick your fights with others: CH-CH-CHINA ....???
Iran is a convienient distraction - we need them right where they are
Suppressing consumption in a US driven world?
Santa Klaus got stuck in a chimney this year and we know what house he is.
Two thoughts:
(1) WTF does he mean that storage is full and the world is awash in oil? I don't know about inventories elsewhere but U.S. changes in inventory seem highly dependent on imports in a particular week. Inventories are often compared to five year moving averages. However, wouldn't 2012 inventories at the same level as 2007 be a cause for concern?
(2) Of all the 86+million liquids produced per day, what's the highest cost per barrel? I think it's higher than $25 (or $50).
I stopped reading at "$25".
Is this an attempt at humor? No, really, is it?
The only things missing are the Unicorns shitting skittles.
Gawd.
Maybe putting Iran out of business is bad for Business - know what I mean? (wink)
In addition to the above....a wonderful idea considering the US may finally be getting its act together to produce more crude and NG. Can you imagine what $25 crude and $2 NG would do for all the investments recently made in these industries ?? Must be better ideas than world wide depression or making Teheran a new "Craters of the Moon" national park....
And guess which state was helping him?
that is not the shah.
You don't say... tell us more oh wise one
No, but that was a real advertisement and changing the face on it points to a certain well known brand of foreign policy hypocrisy.
The historical irony of the fall of shah is only too poetic. President Giscard D'Estaing of France rang up President Carter. When the Iran revolution started. This is what transpired :
VGE : Mr Presdent we have a religious nutty called Imam Khomeiny to whom we gave assylum when Saddam kicked him out of Irak. He is an old Anti-shah notable of thirty years. He now wants to go back to his country. What should we do Mr President, is this guy a threat to our common interests?
JC : I've discussed this with our Intelligence people who you know have been running the Shah's Savak since 1953, when we put him in his place. Now that he's gone, and good riddance as he was despotic and worse an OIL HAWK in Opec, our CIA experts say : Imam Khomeini is depassé, he is no real threat. If anything we could manipulate him to our interest as the British have done with the Imams of Iran for fifty odd years in past.
VGE : So Mr President the same guys who didn't see this revolution bubbling under the surface feel they've AT LEAST got this one right? Do I hear you clearly on this?
JC : Mr President, you do. We have CIA clearance on this move. That's the best I can do. They are our eyes and ears.
VGE : Receiving you loud and clear; Imam Khomeini leaves France as of next week.
The rest is History....Hows that for good forward planning, by our best and brightest state leaders? O'Bammy and Sarkozy has good precendence on this call! Not that Kermitt Roosevelt's play under DUlles brother's orders in 1953 coup was the right way to go. But what's is is is...that's history.
They want WAR with Iran withourt starting WW3.
It is impossible to drop the price of oil to $25.
Orly?
Lots of long term memory problems in this thread.
Obviously you still seem to assume, not think or assess, that their is a conspiracy surrounding available oil supplies. Education does make the man, as well as research and study of the topic and related content. The world uses approx. 86-87 million barrels of oil a day. The U.S. uses only around 19 million barrels of oil a day. Thus only about 22% of world oil usage is supposedly the U.S. The rest of the world is thus 88%. Oil consumption is increasing significantly in developing economies all over the world and decreasing in OECD countries. Whatever drop in consumption is noted with increased inventories here has virtually nothing to do with the rest of the worlds consumption. And since a greater portion of oil is heavy sulfur content crude, you get much less gasoline as compared to the refining of light sweet crude. Oil is getting very difficult to find and thus tar sands, and deep sea drilling are being pursued cause onshore availability is lacking compared to 50-100 years ago.
You mean like it was when the dollar was strong back in prehistory, I mean less than ten years ago?
It's possible, but it would require balancing the budget. Which is even harder than managing WWIII.
Jim, you know I adore you.
Here it comes babe...
It is too fucking late to balance the budget. The Budget is fiction at this point. They are juggling, printing, and inventing all manner of program to keep the facade up. Governments and the banking system are insolvent. The USA will not ever make enough money to pay what it would need to pay to pay down the debt.
We must default. One way (print) or the other (not pay).
It's meant to be an unsolvable problem. Politicians are clearly cluless about money and economics other than what they need to be taught as lines to conduct ways means hearings etc. If they give the fed crap the fed puts it in their lap. Ok you have to solve such and such budget problem when it can't be done. Which makes the politicians feel powerless and they then come back malleable and then you give them money for being a good boy or girl.
In fact that's the original thesis of the rothchilds. He said something like. Only one man in a hundred will be able to figure out the scam and those will just be made depenant and complicant with it. Which describes how we congress all the time, which describes how we congress all the time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pz9yKHmLtB4
The rothchilds offer something equality doesn't offer. More. Equality has built in peace and security but is missing more. The system implimentation of it though doesn't offer more to many people. it offers more and then less and at the cost of peace and security and trust. Which causes people to intensely focus on the problems at hand which makes the system unguidable and even though it may only be 1 out of 100 still just figuring out it's enough to get tent cities strung out all over the country and revolutions all over the place.
Jesus says the poor will always be among you. And he says no man shall leave family or friends that I will not return ten times more too. So the strawman is also offering more. The entity operating behind the strawman government is actuallizing the strawmans religious edict of more.
A greenie for you, Missy. Only because I love it when the ladies use profanity!
I get it and I love you too. But this whole post is in fantasyland. I just like to get at the underlying dynamics. 'Harder to manage than WWIII' isn't ironic enough for ya....Kewl by me.
he is right, but the problem is that we have a president who is hellbent on keeping fossil fuel prices high to enable worship of the false religion of modern environmentalism and to enrich certain financial interest; obama wants gas north of $5
the administration also does not see radical islam as a problem
Right...it's all Obama's fault. He's a figurehead who does what he's told...just like all the presidents of the modern age have. It doesn't have anything to do with the real puppetmasters who pull the strings. Keep believing in the left|right paradigm and how ITS THE DEMS or ITS THE REPUBS! Now go back to watching Fox or CNN or whatever bullshit MSM you like to quote.
The lochness monsters hide on K&J Streets. And under your bed.
This will never work because XOM and CVX will fire all the senators and congressman and/or the president if oil dropped to $25 barrell.
Also, is this article suggesting what is being done? Or is this article suggesting that's what we do? If it's the later then it's even more idiotic than I thought.
The only was to deal with this is to get all the crazies out of power. All over the world. That's never gona happen so it is what it is.
do you even comprehend, you idiots, how insignificant oil companies like XOM and CVX are?
XOM is barely in the top 10 in the world. Any shithole country can expropriate their reserves there with a snap of the finger.
In the physical oil world, yes, but it is actually the reverse in the bizarro Fiat Fantasyland in which we live, the oil companies are about the only institutions capable on shifting billions of unleveraged dollars between the bases of the various leveraged fiat ponzis- ad hence could exert enormous pressure on the TBTF & central banks and their political bitches in Washiington, but that is a true WWIII sceario.
You want to bring Iran to it's knees? Easy, just drop a laser guided bomb right in the middle of their one, lone gas refinery and say hello to the stone age (literally) mad mullahs.
Iran has to import gas to meet their domestic demand.
Asymmetrical Warfare bitchez....
Many towns in Iran have cemeteries for their war heroes from the Iran/Iraq war. An estimated 400k Iranians died. Those people have a stomach, and won't go down without a fight. BTW, As a kid, I still remember when Iraq used gas against a town in Iran. They killed people wholesale and Iran never surrendered.
Go back to your malt liquor.
The Iranians would rather take a short cut and get an atomic device and threaten everyone.
Would be interesting to see them quit fucking around and build a refinery or two and start exporting a finished product.
That would take too much internal cooperation though.
How about we just leave Iran the fuck alone for a change?
We've been bullying them for over 60 years.
You must be one of those nutty Ron Paul supporters who advocates weird shit like peace and freedom. You some kinda Commie? ;)
It's more fun to pick on Iran's defenseless neighbors... you know, like a schoolyard bully.
We have flood of shit today from our guest posters. They've must got drunk or get something stronger or this market mushed up their brains. Or maybe they're getting a bit nervous looking at the world now and their views are hazy at the most.
That sounds good, but it will never work. Politics represents big biz, and big biz wants high prices and war. Stay the course and escalate tensions is the plan.
We want Iran to have nukes to provide provocation for attack. This is not anything new.
$25 oil would also end the Bernanke regime, and his little finger puppet, POTUS. when IEAU stepped in and sold POTUS' oil, (nary' a word from the GOP about that either, an international org telling POTUS to sell the taxpayers oil, why that sounds like treason, as the GOP wants to ride the POTUS-mobile too. can I spend the taxpayers, huh can I Uncle Bennie?) the sanctions against AMERICA"S STRATEGIC RESERVE were barely noticed by anyone, because it was done to keep oil prices higher, not drive them down which is exactly what a shooting match with Iran would do.
The Chinese meanwhile don't want to pay more for oil, and they are where the US was before the criminal global indebtors took over, some fifty years ago. ultimately the Muslim Brotherhood will start to sell oil to pay for WELFARE for its people, you know medicine and food, nasty stuff that WELFARE. unholy thing, having a social conscious and all, to burden you down, and make you speak out against the Squid and the Bernanke, who Gary Dorsch properly blames for the Arab Spring today in his article (321gold.com), for pumping up commodity prices and destablizing third world countries.
The oil reserve sale was pure political theater by the Obama mis-administration. If you go back and look you'll see that the tiny sale lowered the oil price for 3 days. A non-event.
There are no non-events at this level, such as Bernanke moving interest rates 1/4 point is not some "non-event" and the release of that oil at the request of the international organization was meant to keep (ASSET) prices higher, because asset prices tend to move as a class, and the all in one market cannot stand the pressure. and also the GOP wants that pipeline in the upper midwest, which all depends on the price of oil to be profitable. from a strategic vantage point a drop in the price of oil means MORE foreign dependence, as US capacity gets capped when prices fall too far. from a big oil profit standpoint they dont' care, big oil mostly operates like a utility. from the point of view of the new regimes in the ME they need to sell oil to avoid hunger and more riots. in the words of the late Al Davis, paraphrased with the term oil for quarterback "oil has to go down and it has to go down hard"..
I agree with the article.
Much like legalizing grass here in the US....cut the tension.
win-win....you put them out of business and what a stimuli....SHIT FIRE BEN...YOU WANT STIMULI? YOU WANT THIS FUCKING ECOMONY TO GO SOMEWHERE? LOWER OIL YOU FUCKING MUTT....
Period.
Most people disagree with this article becuase it is counter-intuitive.....
Having worked in the oil and gas industry and having invested in oil and gas for 35 years, I disagree with the article because its idiotic.
I thought for sure that we were going to get Rick-Rolled at the end of that article...
In other news;
In a first, gas and other fuels are top U.S. exporthttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/da...
Never gonna give you up....
WTF is going on at Zero Hedge? One psychopath after another rumbles on about Iran's nuclear threat while the West has tens of thousands of nuclear weapons ready to be deployed at a drop of a hat.
This psychopath wants a world wide depression to get rid of the mullahs.
The whole human race is screwed if this is the best we can do to handle international disputes.
Why does he not suggest a false flag attack on a US city - that will be easier than a world-wide depression. Wait..wait...been there, done that.
I been getting the impression the TD's are letting people walk all over their tongues. Lots are showing their true colors, and desperation to maintain the status quo and empire.
Brain Fart!!!
Oh, I see. He forgot to add "The Onion" to the headline.
That's a good idea. Conversely - the point of the saber-rattling by Iran is to increase the price of oil and their profits. The reality of it is if the strait closes, Iran runs out of gasoline. They are importers.
"The reality of it is if the strait closes, Iran runs out of gasoline."
Not anymore. Iran is self-sufficient and has capacity to export gasoline.
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFLDE69P24020101026
TEHRAN Oct 26 (Reuters) - Iran has exported more than $36 million worth of gasoline to Iraq, Afghanistan and Armenia, ISNA news agency said on Tuesday, which it sees as a victory against sanctions.
Oversimplified!
Duhhhhh HEY I know! Lets just make oil $25! Problem solved.
the question should be : who in this world would want to put a country out of business?
The US put Irak out of business; for what?
In what way is pax americana a good thing for the human race?
That is the uber alles question. We are now in the age of US totalitarian evolution. And it smells bad.
This article is just a dream .. this did not work in North Korea ...they starved their people but got nuclear bomb now. Also at $25 a barrel, China will buy as much oil as they can and store it using their useless $3 trillion reserve. Good luck!!!
Substitute North Korea in your writing and replace it with the Chinese government, then your comment would make sense. North Korea is sovereign in name only, it's really just a poor province of the PRC. We need to put a tariff on Chinese goods, yeah...tax the rich, put a tariff on their imports.
Okay. What's the deal with the anti Iran propaganda today? This is the second post.
Dude, it's pretty easy to be anti-Iranian, read a little more and you'll understand, better yet, take a trip there and see it for yourself.
So I suppose it couldn't possibly have anything to do with the fact that we helped put in put in a regime where all the oil proceeds go to a select few. And now we are exporting our inflation to the common person by printing more dollars. They couldn't possibly be mad because we have been trying to enforce our will upon them. Who are we to dictate who can and can't have nuclear capability?
Dr. Engali, when you say "we", you are implying that you personally are part of the conspiracies that are in general the US government and the US financial hegemony (imperialism) on the world. Nothing could be further from the truth! Even if you were hypothetically speaking endorsing the actions of the US government, I guarantee you that you personally have no say in what the government does or won't do. Period.
Food for thought.
There is no democracy in the US other than perhaps something that has more semblance of a coin toss between two fraternity factions or two groups of different country clubs.
I may be mistaken, but I have my doubts that you personally are a member of either club. You are not privileged to make any decisions. Sad but true. Whatever happens will happen and rest assured, you cannot take the blame personally for what the government does or does not do. Those accountable will most likely never get charged unless of course Americans like ourselves get in their faces. That will be short lived as well. But perhaps the old adage holds true.. sooner die trying?
When I say we I mean" we the people". While we have no direct say, we still bare some responsibility because we sit back and do nothing. It's true we aren't a democracy. We never started as one. We are a "represented republic".
Dude, it's pretty easy for the rest of the world to be anti-american too. Read a little and YOU'LL understand. Secret assasinations and illegal wars. Read the life story of John Perkins in "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man," and tell me how wonderful this government is. Th US/London based bankers have hijacked the world and American's are stupid enough to support it thru misdirected patriotism and just plain ignorance.
Tell me Raskolnikoff, when's the last time Iran invaded another country? The US invades another country every year. So who, really, is the more dangerous regime?
That's right, those Iranian bastards helped overthrow our government in the 1950's and funded our enemy in a war against us! Ooops, the US did that to Iran...my bad.
Gotta warm up the people to the idea of war with Iran perhaps?
The more things change the more they stay the same? Would we ever find out if ZH got hijacked by the CIA? Probably not.
I'm beginning to wonder. Next up Infowars and Daily Bell.
What the... ?
Booger from Revenge of the Nerds...
"i say we blow the fuckers up"
They realeased this article early... It was suppose to be out on April 1st...
Our politicians would never allow this as it would actually help the average American.
Tyler Durden - Are you now supporting Israel? Why against Iran? When Israel, Pakistan, India and the G5 can have nuclear bomb why not Iran?
might have something to do with theocracy.
...and Israel isn't? Wasn't it founded by Zionists? Why did we let them build nukes? Hell of a double standard.
Sorry, but who the fuck said anything about wanting to put Iran out of business? We're trying to pester them into attacking us. Get it straight!
Use the Strategic Petrolium Reserve.
Sell 100 million barrels a month for the next six months and then deliver it!
The price will get killed.
Easy peasy.
Dog
You realise the US Strategic Oil Reserve is not for you, or for the US economy to keep operating?
It's to keep the WWIII global mass-killing machine going for a few months longer than anyone else's can keep going.
That's it.
All other fortuitous functions and secondary spin-offs are purely accidental and coincidental.
"How do you drop oil to $25/barrel? Easy: stop saber-rattling in the mideast and engineer a massive global recession with a side order of low-level trade war. Though you wouldn't know it from the high price of oil, the world is awash in oil; storage facilities are full, and production has actually increased a bit in North America."
But that would put all the folks who's job it is to do the saber-rattling out of business and with the industrial war complex we are talking about a BIG business. What a stupid article, "world awash in oil"? A capital cost to deliver at $25 with this weak-ass dollar, that just made it comical, HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA...
Hell, if oil get to 25$ per barrel, my consumption alone will make it worth taking delivery and refining at one of my own sites, HA HA HA HA HA HA HA... my god, stop it just stop it.
He didn't say that was the capital cost, but that was a price that could be acheived through nasty manipulative means for six months.
They do it for PMs. No reason they couldn't pull another 2008.
Yeah, but that would mean that the status quo would have to surrender power. How many ounces do you wager on that happening? Moreover, the cost to recover will still remain high and the following shortage will simply have the opposite effect. I thought you hated bubble-blowers Tom?
Ok - I am going back to reading marketwatch.com
Don't blame the author. He's only following the Santorum campaign trail.
Of Two Minds - how appropriate. On his website, there is a button for giving a tip "to a poor dumb writer". Any takers?
More signs of the Depression. Intellectuals are going for broke.
The way to drop oil from $100/barrel to $25/barrel is to crush demand via global depression.
This guy's a big silly. That's already been priced in.
@$25/barrel would mean US has eliminated all its debt and has adopted a silver or gold standard.
@$25/barrel, there will be revolution in Saudi Arabia, Russia and Canada and the OPEC will abandon US dollar and price in silver or gold ... Good luck
Besides, what a great god damn idea... "I know, lets manipulate markets to impoverish the entire country of Iran, so that instead of having a country full of Western sympathetic civilians being controlled by a bunch of religious extremists, we can have a country ruled by religious extremists full of starving, angry civilians that are pissed off at the US;
WITH NOTHING LEFT TO LOSE....."
Because thats what we want to do, wreck the lives of everyday Iranians so that they will be easy to convince that the US really IS evil. Yes, lets give the Mullahs all the ammunition they need to recruit more terrorists. WTF are you talking about?
The Author needs to learn some God Damn History.
Hey! How'd that whole "leave Afghanistan an impoverished nightmare, in the hands of Religious Extremist militants" strategy in the 70's and 80's end up working out for the US? HMM?
Or yeah.. Crippling foreign economic policies. That really made the Germans comply in the 20's-30's didn't it? We sure fixed them!!!
I give the article three WTF!'s And a big Vat of STFU.
Not to mention that Iran is a net importer of fuel. LEts impoverish them, and give them a new supply of cheap gasoline, and see what their military does... Yeah... Stellar.
How'd that whole "leave Afghanistan an impoverished nightmare, in the hands of Religious Extremist militants" strategy in the 70's and 80's end up working out for the US?
I think it worked out great if you're a defense contractor, or the owner of the WTC, or part of the Big Oil power bloc.
Foreign policy has always been about making certain constituents happy, right?
the intent is to send oil to 150-200 per barrel, the US will open oil reserves now formally closed. world control of prices!!!
http://www.theinfomine.com/2010/04/15/the-worlds-longest-horizontal-wells-by-largest-drilling-rig/
Can't you figure out how to strong arm politicians without f*cking everyone else? There's no guarnetee that the politician will come around, esp. if their lobbyists keep buying them off. But there's no guarentee that the little guy will be able to drive ourselves to work, to the store, or anywhere for that matter.
Operation Aivas Tlamunus 2.0 - Dulles Brothers would be so proud.
Long live Exxon
Of course, a massive global recession would make it very difficult for the all the other regimes around the world to continue funding their bloated bureaucracies, overextended militaries, and their welfare states as well...but if you're going to have a massive global recession anyway, you may as well put it to good use.
Possibly the worst article ever blessed by Tyler to run in ZH ever.
How many times back in 2008 and 2009 did we hear about imaginary Nigerian pipelines blowing up causing the price of oil to rise that day?
Oh, and we're supposed to believe too that Iran and all the other Muslim whackjobs will just sit by and shrug as if they're helpless to stop oil prices drop. Yeah, those Muslim angels would never blow up anything to cause tension and fear because, you know, only Mossad and CIA cause problems around the world and if somehow Zionists ordered Mossad and CIA to stop causing this, the price of oil will drop.
If you want to see the results of Holodomor, take a look at the child victim of Stalin’s man-made famine in the Ukrainian SSR between 1932 and 1933 when 8 million+ Ukrainians died from starvation in a peacetime catastrophe.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor’
Is this, also known as the “terror-famine in Ukraine” and the “famine-genocide in Ukraine” what Charles Hugh Smith is advocating?
Says Wikipedia: On 12 January 2010, the court of appeals in Kiev opened hearings into the "fact of genocide-famine Holodomor in Ukraine in 1932-33". ... In a ruling on 13 January 2010 the court found Joseph Stalin and other Bolshevik leaders guilty of genocide against the Ukrainians. ...This decision became effective on 21 January 2010.
America has been seized by the same iron fist that gripped Russia in the summer of 1917, bankrolled by wealthy foreign bankers such as Kuhn-Loeb of New York, the same international banking houses that have long been interested in a worldwide revolutionary communist movement. The same banking houses that set up the Federal Reserve System in 1913.
In 1920, in a February 8 edition of the Illustrated Sunday Herald (London) Winston Churchill wrote: “From the days of Weishaupt to those of Karl Marx to those of Trotsky, Bela Kuhn, Rosa Luxembourg, and Emma Goldman, this worldwide conspiracy has been steadily growing. This conspiracy has played a definitely recognizable role in the tragedy of the French Revolution (Robespierre was Jewish and most of the wealth lost by the beheaded aristocracy ended up in the hands of the Rothschilds). It has been the mainspring of every subversive movement during the 19th century, and now at last, this band of extraordinary personalities from the underworld of the great cities of Europe and America have gripped the Russian people by the hair of their heads and have become practically the undisputed masters of that enormous empire.”
Nothing has changed. But, now, Americans and peoples of the world on January 27 will be forced to observe International Holocaust Remembrance Day. No need to mark your calendar; it already hasbeen marked for you.
the PTB's don't give a rats ass about the price of oil.
they want the war.
it keeps the herd distracted from reality and with the program, the need to "secure the homeland" front and center, and it gives the ministry of truth real purpose, without their precious five minutes of hate, they would be stuck just fudging economic and employment data and "seasonally adjusting" election results for the surfs.
how boring.
winning the future one humanitarian kinetic military action at a time.
CHARLES; it is their oil. Try to remember that. We have a demonstrator for the 1%, right here.
Neocon, bitchez.
$25 or $250 the REAL issue (from the oligarch's point of view) is to ensure that, regardless of the price, the denomination of exchange is in DOLLARS! That's what all of this sabre rattling is really about.
This Charles H smith guy needs Bitch Slapped.
And this "of two minds" thing...
Charles seems to have trouble using one.
FuckTard.
If I were the editor of ZH, I'd publish this too just so you folks would do what you are doing, discuss. It sure pushes some buttons, doesn't it?
That's the job. Perspective(s).
What're you talking about?
Iran is the bogeyman that lets them do what they want. America is the great satan that allows the Iranians to do what they want.
Can you imagine the chaos it people just got along with their lives without being told what to think?
Was switching through the Dish menu to RT (280) to catch Max Keiser.
On the way - i stopped just a minute to check the ticker prints on CNBC, and I blew a load of ice tea out my nose.
The topic for the moment, no shit, was all about oil prices ARE GOING DOWN because of supply disruption fears - WHAT THE FARKING FUCK IS THIS ALL ABOUT i sez to self - and so - despite tea dripping from nose and uncontrollable urges to sneeze I JUST HAD TO LISTEN on. There must be something in the Latte at Corporate Nut Busting Clowns (did anyone catch "think beyond the edge of your spreadsheet" Cramer ranting about how he felt like he was ripped on methamphetamines this morning?) - cause those guys are farking triple AAA loony bin idiots (lotz o fun every time the remote lands on them).
Anyway CNBC's fuzzy logic of the moment explanation as to why OIL PRICES ARE GOING DOWN BECAUSE OF SUPPLY DISRUPTION FEARS is that traders need a little volatility so they can bump their margins when they decide to run up the prices later (the yokel economics of artificial supply statistics market manipulation is in play - as it has been for the last whatever).
... more tea flushed out my nose at that .. and a hint of invincibility permeated the soul - CNBC represents the best that the sewer connecting DC to Wall Street (aka the Mainstream) - these guys are gonna be easy to take out!
Dear ZH readers - CHINA HAS CUT A DEAL WITH THE EZ REGARDING THEIR FINANCES. After agreeing to agree regarding the Chinese offer, yesterday the EZ suits issued a PR stating they had not yet set a date to ban imports of Iranian oil and offered no estimated date. CHINA HAS BOUGHT OFF THE EZ AS IT RELATES TO IRAN - THE EX will not join in Obama's GS's GE's JPM's Lockheed's Boeing's etc etc War Usury pig in a poke. IOW - American K-Street Kiddie fondler's will have to go it alone regarding any foray into Iran.
SO THE DIM FARKS AT CNBC GAVE THEIR PREPOSTEROUS LOGIC EXPLAINING OIL's DOWNTURN WAS MORE THAN A MISTAKE, AN OFF THE CUFF METH RAP OR EVEN A BAD GUESS - THEY LIED - PURE AND SIMPLE : OIL PRICES ARE GOING DOWN BECAUSE THE EZ WILL NOT BE PART OF ANY COALITION OF THE WILLING. IT PROBABLY MEANS NO FREE PASS FOR FLYOVERS OR TEMP GI MEDICAL SERVICES OR PORTS OR LOGISTICS.
THE EZ WILL NOT PARTICIPATE IN AN ATTACK ON IRAN (thank Buddha on a stack of Tikis, and farking amen!)
If anyone could, Mr TD might be able to share the details of this new budding relationship developing between the EZ and CHINA.
So - after wiping tea from face and V-Neck woven Bamboo fiber T-Shirt - flipped over to RT ..
When the remote landed on RT MAX explained the significance of the Leifmen survey that a ZH contributor posted the other day regarding what Americans Fear the Most. The print showed 63% of American's feared an economic collapse (about 20 points higher than a terrorist attack fear and 40 points higher than global war fear). Max's reasoning was sensible as always and explains why all the media shills synogressmen and president are always posturing on terrorism: IT'S TO MAKE AMERICANS THINK ABOUT SOMETHING OTHER THAT ECONOMIC COLLAPSE.
That bit of understanding also fed the souls invincibility index, and, inversely, detracted from the mainstream kiddie fondlers invincibility index.
OIL PRICES ARE GOING DOWN BECAUSE OF SUPPLY DISRUPTION FEARS - A NEW LOW IN FUZZY LOGIC EVEN FROM CNBC and that `un, folks, will stay in the noodle forever - happy happy joy joy!
PS - WOULD APPRECIATE A LINK TO THE CRAMSTER METH RUSH RAP THIS MORNING should any one run across one
I hope you enjoyed your ice tea out the nose moment. I hope you didn't use lemon in it.
No lemon - but I do use lemon in my coffee enema solution ..
Wanna put UK out of business?
That's how.
How much do you think it costs to get a barrel of Brent crude out of the bottom of the North Atlantic or the old North Sea fields?
Re. your Iran idea, I think I would trust the Persians before I trusted the Squid and the Morgue not to go speculating again like 2008.
So the first part of the solution to Iranian hegemony is to actively pursue high-visibility diplomacy in the Mideast, repeatedly declare "war is not the answer," etc., and announce some major diplomatic initiatives, even if they are totally for show. That will drop the price of oil $20/barrel in short order. – Charles Hugh Smith
Right. But to suggest that American policy toward Iran should be to destroy its rulers is as much an act of war as sanctions on its banking system. This article underscores the type of injustices Islamic countries see in the actions of the U.S. (such as its so-called brokerage of the Israeli occupation of Palestine).
The Iranian conflict is caused by Iran’s reasonable desire not to be dominated in its neighborhood by the aggressive nuclear power in the region, Israel, and her superpower sponsor.
Putting the Iranian regime out of business should not be America’s business; it should be preventing catastrophic war and all of its ramifications, including the murder of innocents. The downgrading of U.S. influence in the world should be the goal.
Talking heads in the media are already emphasizing how the leading Republican Primary candidates seem to welcome war with Iran with the exception of Ron Paul. In an age of rampant political lying about positions and promises, here is a man who stands among the Republicans with perhaps the most principled and honest stand. Here is a statesman on the stage among liars and warmongers.
Do the Americans who push these libels and threats against another country in the interests of supporting an aggressive ally understand how close they are to World War III? Do these armchair idiots understand what bringing war to these shores will mean? Do they think that it is only the villagers in a foreign land who will die? No, that was before, when a giant superpower attacked small defenseless nations; this one is different, this one will involve conflicts of interests worldwide and, yes, the war will reach our shores. Just who are these savages among us who would return us to a jungle of hate and murder or be murdered?
Your comment is spot on, and the answer to your question, sadly, is "Republicans."
Why did obama support every arab spring uprising EXCEPT for Iran???? I guess we need an enemy.
Yeah but that would mean the overthrow of our puppet ally in Saudi Arabia!
Wait 30 days...
Can you find many EU Banks, giving credit for Oil Imports TODAY ???
IRAN and Kaz are "flexible"... and its still winter in Europe...
If they turn to Putin ( after his reelection..) their asses will freeze, and it will be toooo late to turn to teh Saudis..
PP
You can take issue with the likelihood of $25 oil, but it is asinine to argue with the premise that American (and Israeli) saber rattling increases the price of oil which, in turn, harms our economy and helps Iran. One of the many sound reasons for not invading Iraq was precisely this point. Not only did removing Saddam Hussein create a power vacuum into which Iran predictably stepped, but also drove up the price of oil which increased the power of the mullahs in Iran. It is simply undeniable that high oil prices hurt us and help Iran. So, the real question is why do all the Republican candidates for the presidency (other than Paul) insist on hurting America and helping Iran?
You'll be surprised how fast inventories start drawing down when supply is interrupted for 5 weeks. It takes two to make a price, buyers and sellers. Good luck selling to yourself at a price that you want. Consumers are generally price takers.
Just wondering (actually, how impudent of me) what Chavez ever did to us except try to give heating oil away to America's poor. Never saw the repugs or dembos doing that. Yeah, maybe we should just nuke Caracas so we don't have to suffer through these ignorant articles anymore.
Who says we want to put Iran out of business anyway? Aren't they a great boogeyman?
10 minutes of my life lost reading this article.
Let me tell you, those in power don't care for money, they can enslave the poor, kill the resisters and still make things happen don't you know?
If Oil exports is such a life line money to Iran, a bunch of B2 sorties against the wells plus refineries will take them years to replace.
Can anyone explain how to maintain a global depression with oil at $25/barrel?
Hey, Tyler...we're surrounded by geniuses!...Albeit, mostly broke!...Matter of circumstance.
Crikey. That was a duffer of an article.
And from the Council on Foreign Relations, this lame piece of shit:
--
--
Notice that they focus on Iran as an aggressor and an attacker, and also what Iran might do if it were 'attacked', rather than focusing on the direct warning that Iran has issued regarding the latest extreme level of sanctioning, as global financial and naval blockade.
They don't want to highlight that its the CFR shitheads who are the ones escalating the whole thing towards a war.
Notice also that their usual talk of China and Russia building weapon "facilities" etc., because this is in fact what the USA does ALL OVER THE WORLD, IN FIFTY OR SO DIFFERENT COUNTRIES, EVERY DAY OTHER DAY.
Oh yeah, notice that the 'Interviewee', and 'Interviewer', are both Jews.
And let's not forget what the CFR really is:
--
--
And watch Dick Cheney's own words in this video (about 6:58 minutes in):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=_Qy97pFDLig
Yes, that's right, it's all been a conspiracy to take you to war for their gain and their power- that's all this is.
EDIT: I almost forgot, Michael Elleman, the 'interviewee' missile expert in the first article, likes to write for the:
"UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE"
(and no, that name is not an Orwellian joke ... well, ... it is ... but it's not ...)
http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/all/Michael%20Elleman
Element: Thanks for taking the time to post this and the one below. I have read fairly extensively about the CFR, and you are right. They ARE a front for the banksters and global government ilk. One of their spawn is PNAC. I have been reading a lot lately about NED (National Endowment for Democracy), which is largely responsible for the concept of "nonviolent revolution" all over the world for the purposes of hegemony over Russia and China.
If people would look deeper than Yahoo! News, like you have, they would find a whole host of who we are really controlled by and why they do what they do. I have been "down the rabbit hole" for sometime now, and it's so fascinating that I don't want to come up! The level of propaganda is truly astounding. Sometimes I ponder subscribing to "Foreign Affairs", but I don't want to give CFR one red cent beyond what they have already stolen!
For Iran:
The one sure way to fatally destabilize the Iranian theocracy is to adjust the demand and supply of oil so the price plummets to $25/barrel, and stays there for at least six months.
For us:
The way to drop oil from $100/barrel to $25/barrel is to crush demand via global depression.
In the U.S., a $1 per gallon tax on all liquid fuels...
You sure we would feel better off than Iran in that scenario?
lol .. win-win!
Last time it dipped to ~$32 but not for long ... went back to to $60 and $75 fairly quickly.
Oil is like most of the other minerals/metals. The easy stuff (therefore less expensive) has mostly been extracted. The rest will be recovered from lower-grade "ores." As the cost of energy increases, the cost of going after low-grade ores will also increase and become economically unprofitable. The cost will curtail use far faster than the actual exhaustion of the minerals/metals.
In terms of oil, excepting supply/demand and economic disruptions, prices will increase as new locations that become more expensive and harder to extract from. Fracking is the one technical advancement that is actually allowing additional recovery from previously 'abandoned' resources (Bakken and other North American fields).
There is a cost of extraction / economic value point where getting the oil becomes economically unviable. "Peaking of cheap oil" - absolutely will happen even if "Peak Oil" doesn't.
The PREMISE of the article is interesting: Blow up your economy so we can blow up Iran...? Sounds like a banker talking.
I'm sure you know this, but you should also point out that the price point between 'economic' and 'non-economic' extraction is also always floating and fluctuating, depending on technical developments, economic conditions and demand, and the levels of substitution or slow migration to another resource type that achieves the required ends.
Unfortunately only oil is currently capable of providing enough margin in response to the floating uncertainties between economic and non-economic extractability.
Which makes the simple supply and demand story much more complicated, in practice.
there is no such fucking thing as peak "cheap" oil.
You STILL think Peak Oil is debatable? How many times do I have to tell you people this? Anyone who denies PO is saying that oil production can rise forever.
All these people who want to attack Iran should start having second thoughts. Iran is no threat to America, only Israel. But the bottom line, if those who want to attack Iran get their wish, we don't want to hear you bitch when the price of gasoline skyrockets, and it will.
I don't want Iran to be put out of business. I want ZOG to be put out of business. How about an article on how to do that?
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