Guest Post: Want a Truly Healthy Housing Market? Here Are the Five Essential Steps

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Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:24 | 1820935 SheepDog-One
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All good common sense and all, but that has no place in the US anymore.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:39 | 1820999 Ahmeexnal
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Deus ex Nuclear Machina.

Housing bubble in the US (and other countries) could receive an unexpected oxygen tank in the form of 127 million Japanese evacuating their country and urgently seeking to purchase a new home.

Shit's about to hit the fan in the land of the rising sun.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:51 | 1821322 Cyrano de Bivouac
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Good idea-we should ethnically cleanse Oregon and Washington  of Americans and let the Japanese settle there-we should pay reparations to them for the bombing of civilians during WW2 anyway.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 13:03 | 1821389 redpill
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The 800 lb gorilla in the corner is princple reduction/forgiveness, which would not be an unreasonable requirement of banks that received bailouts.  And instead of applying it to the people who got liar loans, have no job, and are on the brink of foreclosure, it should be for people who got full doc loans and have stayed current on their payments.  The reasoning behind that is the first group were somewhat of a party to the problem, whereas the latter did it the right way.  Additionally, helping the first group isn't going to improve the housing market but helping the second group would.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 15:35 | 1822253 Troll Magnet
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i agree with this.  and to keep public outrage to a minimum, they should offer incentives in the form of 1% (15 yr) & 2% (30 yr) interest rate mortgage loans to all new home buyers. 

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 23:53 | 1823665 RockyRacoon
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"They" who should offer those low rates?   What part of 20% down and market established rates did you miss?   You're advocating more intervention in what are supposed to be free markets.   Yeah, "they" should just fix this mess.    JFC.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:53 | 1821332 dlmaniac
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dup

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:25 | 1820942 Deadpool
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houses and especially mortgages should NEVER have been securitized...didn't anyone at Merrill and Goldman read "Liar's Poker"...guess not. But then again had they not been the billions in fees and bonuses would not have been created either and less Lamborghinis would be parked in the Hamptons. That would be a pity. The mistake was Stan O'Neal at Merrill believing his own bullshit and holding the bonds on his firm's balance sheet instead of selling them out the front door as fast as possible...when the music stopped his firm folded. Dominoes fell. here we are. Food, Shelter and Clothing...needs, not speculative investments.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:50 | 1821062 FreedomGuy
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Stan exited with $160million and all his Lambo's didn't he?!? By the way, Ferrari is having a record year this year. Somebody has recovered from the recession.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:58 | 1821096 Deadpool
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probably because italians are buying hard assets, like exotic cars. Soon there will be ABS on cars we can short.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:28 | 1820954 DeadFred
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"Bubbles do not reinflate, even with the Fed chanting its Keynesian Cargo Cult mantras ("zero interest rates forever!") and waving dead chickens over the embers."

Duh! Of course in won't work if you forget the important details. You MUST use a cage-free red chicken, and the incantation has to be done in the first week of the waning moon. No wonder the housing market is a mess!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:29 | 1821248 Cpl Hicks
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It's not sufficient that you use cage-free chickens- the appropriate Kenyan-Indonesian voodoo rituals must be scrupulously adhered to and DOJ-mandated disclaimers that no actual chickens have been harmed must be posted.

Some of the problems in the past have been that archaic middle-American rites (a la Mark Twain) involving stump water gathered at the dark of the moon have negated the new, effective mantras of the ascendant mulatto administration.

Just trying to be helpful!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:29 | 1820959 jdelano
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or...inflation.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:35 | 1820984 The Big Ching-aso
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Want a Truly Healthy Housing Market?

Simple answer:   Lots More High-paying Jobs

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:45 | 1821034 Little John
Little John's picture

There are NO simple answers.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:58 | 1821362 Idiot Savant
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The simple answers are laid out in the above piece. No one even needs to read this to know it's true; it's just common sense. Simple doesn't mean painless.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 17:40 | 1822807 thewhitelion
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And it doesn't mean it would get our current crop of stooges reelected--and isn't that all that really matters?

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:36 | 1820985 Robot Traders Mom
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I've been practically giving my house away for the last 6 months and no takers in a supposedly great area. Unreal.

On an unrelated note, I need to vent to ZH'ers. There is a 40 year-old asshole in my office wearing a graphic dress shirt today, think Affliction meets Brooks Brothers. He is the type of guy that I'm sure trolls this website. I would really like to punch him in the face.

Just sayin'...

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:37 | 1820993 Capitalist10
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"abandon the unsustainable exurbs and suburbs"

You've got it backwards.  Abandon the sociopathic inner cities.  They are already bulldozing much of Detroit.

The suburbs and exurbs have good schools for $5000-7500 per pupil.  The cities have bad schools for $10,000-15,000 per pupil.  The cities also have higher expenses due to lots more crime, welfare dependancy, etc.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:58 | 1821099 Big Corked Boots
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If the flow of (imported) energy ever shuts off then the cities will be filled with starving yuppies demanding grain shipments from China "since they're so good at making stuff."

Within a week they will be eating each other like zombies. (Just getting into the Haloween spirit.)

The exurbs and suburbs will be a lot better off.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:39 | 1821286 Bananamerican
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...until the zombies wander into exurbia looking for all those tasy brainiacs

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:52 | 1821333 Capitalist10
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Not a problem.  The suburbs and exurbs are much better armed.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:38 | 1820994 TheSilverJournal
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"Requiring a 20% down payment is viewed, perversely, as an impossibly restrictive standard; yet requiring a substantial down payment is the only way to incentivize "patient capital" and squeeze out speculation and its destructive culture of deceit and churn."

 

Why require anything? End the smokescreen of the FDIC and more importantly the Fed backing of the FDIC, and allow depositors of banks that fail to lose their money. Depositors will then actually care that their bank is sound and making good loans before giving a bank their money.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:38 | 1820995 jmcadg
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No true graphic designer would wear a graphic design shirt, I'm one too. Punch him in the mouth for me.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:38 | 1821000 flacorps
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1. If a home is not up to code, it needs to be torn down if it would cost too much to get it up to code.

2. If a house is significantly obsolete and it is a mobile or modular home or capable of being moved, it should be put on a barge and shipped to Haiti, along with donated rehab materials.

3. Foreigners who have the means should be encouraged to buy U.S. homes, either as vacation homes or as footholds for eventual immigration.

4. The pre-Nobelman cramdown of principal for primary residences in Chapter 13 should be restored. This will put a floor under housing prices.

 

 

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:39 | 1821004 jmcadg
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Miss read, punch him anyway.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:40 | 1821010 FunkyOldGeezer
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There is one HUGE FLAW in this argument.

Those people who can't afford a mortgage are expected to rent and yet owning a house (paying a mortgage) should be cheaper than renting!

If people can't afford a mortgage, how on earth are they expected to afford the even more expensive option, of renting????

It's the same flawed logic that drove the speculators to expect to buy a property and have soemone else pay for it, in it's entirety. Surely, to stop speculation, rents need to be (legislated) lower, so that property owners don't get a free lunch?

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:47 | 1821035 jcaz
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Who says the owner has a mortgage?

If people think they're gonna cash-flow positive by taking on a mortgage and then renting out the property for more, they're speculators, and take on that risk.

Yeah, more legislation- that's the answer, cause it's worked so well up till now.

Free market really works, when it's given a chance.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 07:18 | 1825969 Aarnog
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Surely the point is that purchase prices are now way too high; they should fall a long way yet.
Thus, rents could be lower than current mortgage payments (and so more affordable), but still higher than the eventual level of purchase price discovery.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:42 | 1821016 JLee2027
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Needless to say, the murky/non-existent title documentation for millions of mortgaged homes will also have to be addressed on a national level.

Can't be. Property laws are at the state level.

So much for this article. 

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:10 | 1821169 flacorps
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The constitution is what the Supreme Court says it is, not what you or I see when we read the document. Money talks, bullshit walks, and if you don't think that can work at the Supreme Court look up one Abe Fortas.

In short, should Congress see fit to fashion some kind of national housing title solution, the Supreme Court will bless it if they feel it is in the best interests of the country, or if the envelopes are fat enough.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 02:37 | 1823856 JLee2027
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That is completely 100% inaccurate. There will be no national solution.  If it was possible, it would have happened years ago. Why hasn't it? DOH!
Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:42 | 1821019 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Sounds good, but will never happen.   Too many networks on TV expounding the bullshit of "wealth via infinite real estate appreciation";

Just watched a show about a couple who are buying a shelled-out 400 year old cow barn in Italy for $800K as an "investment"-  gee, I wonder why Italy is screwed up?

Can apply that same story to almost anywhere in the world the past five years.

Sad part is, too many people drink this Kool-Aid. 

The cure won't be pretty.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:45 | 1821020 Caviar Emptor
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One problem with the above: cost of homeownership is accelerating beyond capacity given declining real median incomes. And there are now huge unpredictable variables introduced into the ownership equation that were never considered before: energy, building/replacement/upgrade materials, insurance, taxes, security, education for the kids. Finally, the most unpredictable variable of them all: where will tomorrow's jobs be? That should make lots of people hesitate to buy, especially young families who need maximum flexibility in this environment. The old work/income paradigms are dying and that means you need to be nimble to survive the changes

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:49 | 1821053 jcaz
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Since when were those things never considered in the home ownership equation?

If people- since the beginning of time- haven't considered those things, then they're too stupid to own the house, and get what they deserve-  that's how markets work, they weed out the weak and stupid.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:55 | 1821083 FreedomGuy
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I partially disagree. Government keeps changing the rules, the taxes and many of the costs associated with ownership. It affects renters indirectly, too.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:59 | 1821103 Caviar Emptor
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If people- since the beginning of time- haven't considered those things, then they're too stupid to own the house,

 

You don't get it. Nobody had to think about gasolie when it was 25cents/gallon. But now they do. None of the costs of ownership were considered a barrier to ownership as long as they were predictable. And when incomes were rising there was always room for error. Now they're not. And sudden price jolts as we've seen could make the difference between a house that was affordable and one that breaks the camel's back. 

You'll understand these realities when you grow up


Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:10 | 1821171 jcaz
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LOL- skipped a few grades, eh?  Like 10th, 11th, and 12th?

Gasoline wasn't cheap when it was 25cent/gal, Einstein.   Try doing some regression analysis on the effects of inflation, and figure out the TRUE cost of gasoline when it was priced at 25 cents/gal.

And if you think your parents didn't consider those factors when they bought their home, then it's clear that genetics are the issue here.

I thought this board was for people that have a clue? 

You're exactly the problem, dude.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:27 | 1821202 Caviar Emptor
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You flatter me that I alone am responsible for the entire country's problems :-)

As a certified moron you fail to see, and I know this is way above your level, that there are TWO comepting forces: DEClining incomes and INCreasing cost structure of homeownership. So there's a DOUBLE WHAMMY, to put it in words that you can understand. 

COSTS? UP. INCOMES? DOWN. Affordability of a house at THE SAME PRICE as before: WAY DOWN!

But the joker in the deck: prices are accelerating. And the decline in real median income has accelerated too since the recovery (down 9.8% since the start of the recession with the bulk of that since 2009). SO houses are still WAY over-priced

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:36 | 1821269 jcaz
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LOL-  you're right, I can't argue with what you just tried to type-  truly, you are the best way for me to make my point.

Wow, you can Google?  I thought you needed to be able to spell to do that....

I'm not certified as a moron yet, but if I keep reading your stuff, I'm pretty sure I'll get there- wish me luck!

Kisses!

Seriously, how do you read the majority of this blog?  It's gotta be like, so far over your head.....  Explain to me what a CDS is, in your own words- and no, it's not sumpthin yew put yer money in when yew go to the bank on Tuesdays......

 

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 13:19 | 1821456 zerozulu
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Current houses do not last longer. After 30 years, these houses are worth nothing. Bring back brick and cement construction. Maintenance will be low and there will be something left for next generation.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:57 | 1821045 Benjamin Glutton
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well, if by "housing bubble" you mean a liars market coordinated by various financial criminals on behalf of a cooperative government desperate to get fresh money into circulation then I must disagree.

 

it will happen again with housing once enough time has passed. in the meantime other bubbles are just around the corner.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:49 | 1821050 Fox-Scully
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Remove the large multinational developers from the market and return it to local builders.  The local builders are not trying to meet corporate goals to help inflate the stock that you see with a multinational company, hence the price is more realistic.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:54 | 1821067 jcaz
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Why- because the local guy is less concerned about a profit that a multi-national?

My local builders are crooks and thieves-  I demand the ability to seek a builder outside of my area.

Unless this is the Middle Ages again, then I'll get my serfs to build it....

BTW- nothing stopping your local guys from dropping their prices to compete- sure, they prolly wont' be able to live in the house nicer than the local heart surgeon anymore, but there ya go- free market system is funny that way.....

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:42 | 1821293 Cpl Hicks
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Don't know about your locale but around here the "local builders" appear to have crews that have a distinct south-of-the-border look to them.

Don't know whether that put them in the 'crooks and thieves' category or just smart, bottom-line capitalists...

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 13:08 | 1821413 jcaz
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True, but then that's the same thing Bernie Madoff says too, eh?  "I'm just a Capitalist".

My builder lives better than Bernie did- while the houses he built are lined with funky drywall.

I only want him to live as well as Bernie does now.

 

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:59 | 1821102 MiningJunkie
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Hear, hear! Brilliant!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:02 | 1821119 Chicken_Little
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I paid half down in 2006 and got a good FLL townhouse to get away from Miami Beach condo ass

s. Then I found out my new townhouse was infected with Knauf Chinese Drywall. This shit is really bad...

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:08 | 1821155 ddtrader
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The main points are right on.  Allow the housing market to clear by getting gov't out and forcing the liquidation of overpriced assets.  This would clear the market in 3 years. I disagree however, with the premise that owning should be less than renting.  Total ownership costs should be equal to or slightly higher than comparable rents.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:08 | 1821157 JR
JR's picture

Americans were corralled into housing because it was the only financial door left open to them..

All I know is I used to be happy here, excited even, to live in the land of the free where I had a handle on my life—where I had real choices. I was content to live with the results of those choices, because they were mine.

But, now, I feel trapped, almost hopeless I’m trapped by a government that uses me as a powerless rabbit to be chased into a financial box canyon and skinned by financial hunters, and then blocks all the exits. If I put my money in savings it is at high risk; in equities, high risk; in bonds, high risk; in cash, high risk; in a 401(k), high risk; in my real estate, high risk; in education, high risk; in my small business, high risk; in gold stocks, high risk… And, now, even gold and pensions are becoming high risk.

And all the while, as I and others try harder and harder--spending more time on the internet, reading, researching, attending seminars--to make better financial choices, the net worth for most of us deteriorates, going lower and lower. At the same time, the ‘investment’ bankers, with their control of the money supply and the Congress, grow richer and richer as they manipulate and control every aspect of our financial lives from their insider positions. Yet, they toil not, neither do they spin.

Americans are in a financial box canyon. With all the exits blocked. Either we fight for our very economic survival to regain the reins of our government—or we will be become as slaves to the moneylenders, in the land our forefathers bequeathed us.

Financial life for the average American now rests on a throw of the dice, and the dice are loaded.

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