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Guest Post: War Imminent In Straits Of Hormuz? $200 A Barrel Oil?

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Submitted by John C.K. Daly of OilPrice.com

War Imminent In Straits Of Hormuz? $200 A Barrel Oil?

The pieces and policies for potential conflict in the Persian Gulf are seemingly drawing inexorably together.
 
Since 24 December the Iranian Navy has been holding its ten-day Velayat 90 naval exercises, covering an area in the Arabian Sea stretching from east of the Strait of Hormuz entrance to the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden. The day the maneuvers opened Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari told a press conference that the exercises were intended to show "Iran's military prowess and defense capabilities in international waters, convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries, and test the newest military equipment." The exercise is Iran's first naval training drill since May 2010, when the country held its Velayat 89 naval maneuvers in the same area. Velayat 90 is the largest naval exercise the country has ever held.
 
The participating Iranian forces have been divided into two groups, blue and orange, with the blue group representing Iranian forces and orange the enemy. Velayat 90 is involving the full panoply of Iranian naval force, with destroyers, missile boats, logistical support ships, hovercraft, aircraft, drones and advanced coastal missiles and torpedoes all being deployed. Tactics include mine-laying exercises and preparations for chemical attack. Iranian naval commandos, marines and divers are also participating.
 
The exercises have put Iranian warships in close proximity to vessels of the United States Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, which patrols some of the same waters, including the Strait of Hormuz, a 21 mile-wide waterway at its narrowest point. Roughly 40 percent of the world's oil tanker shipments transit the strait daily, carrying 15.5 million barrels of Saudi, Iraqi, Iranian, Kuwaiti, Bahraini, Qatari and United Arab Emirates crude oil, leading the United States Energy Information Administration to label the Strait of Hormuz "the world's most important oil chokepoint."
 
In light of Iran’s recent capture of an advanced CIA RQ-170 Sentinel drone earlier this month, Iranian Navy Rear Admiral Seyed Mahmoud Moussavi noted that the Iranian Velayat 90 forces also conducted electronic warfare tests, using modern Iranian-made electronic jamming equipment to disrupt enemy radar and contact systems. Further tweaking Uncle Sam’s nose, Moussavi added that Iranian Navy drones involved in Velayat 90 conducted successful patrolling and surveillance operations.
 
Thousands of miles to the west, adding oil to the fire, President Obama is preparing to sign legislation that, if fully enforced, could impose harsh penalties on all customers for Iranian oil, with the explicit aim of severely impeding Iran’s ability to sell it.
 
How serious are the Iranians about the proposed sanctions and possible attack over its civilian nuclear program and what can they deploy if push comes to shove? According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ The Military Balance 2011, Iran has 23 submarines, 100+ “coastal and combat” patrol craft, 5 mine warfare and anti-mine craft, 13 amphibious landing vessels and 26 “logistics and support” ships. Add to that the fact that Iran has emphasized that it has developed indigenous “asymmetrical warfare” naval doctrines, and it is anything but clear what form Iran’s naval response to sanctions or attack could take. The only certainty is that it is unlikely to resemble anything taught at the U.S. Naval Academy.
 
The proposed Obama administration energy sanctions heighten the risk of confrontation and carry the possibility of immense economic disruption from soaring oil prices, given the unpredictability of the Iranian response. Addressing the possibility of tightened oil sanctions Iran’s first vice president Mohammad-Reza Rahimi on 27 December said, “If they impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz.”
 
Iran has earlier warned that if either the U.S. or Israel attack, it will target 32 American bases in the Middle East and close the Strait of Hormuz. On 28 December Iranian Navy commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari observed, "Closing the Strait of Hormuz for the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran is very easy. It is a capability that has been built from the outset into our naval forces' abilities."
 
But adding an apparent olive branch Sayyari added, "But today we are not in the Hormuz Strait. We are in the Sea of Oman and we do not need to close the Hormuz Strait. Today we are just dealing with the Sea of Oman. Therefore, we can control it from right here and this is one of our prime abilities for such vital straits and our abilities are far, far more than they think."
 
There are dim lights at the end of the seemingly darker and darker tunnel. The proposed sanctions legislation allows Obama to waive sanctions if they cause the price of oil to rise or threaten national security.
 
Furthermore, there is the wild card of Iran’s oil customers, the most prominent of which is China, which would hardly be inclined to go along with increased sanctions.
 
But one thing should be clear in Washington – however odious the U.S. government might find Iran’s mullahcracy, it is most unlikely to cave in to either economic or military intimidation that would threaten the nation’s existence, and if backed up against the wall with no way out, would just as likely go for broke and use every weapon at its disposal to defend itself. Given their evident cyber abilities in hacking the RQ-170 Sentinel drone and their announcement of an indigenous naval doctrine, a “cakewalk” victory with “mission accomplished” declared within a few short weeks seems anything but assured, particularly as it would extend the military arc of crisis from Iraq through Iran to Afghanistan, a potential shambolic military quagmire beyond Washington’s, NATO’s and Tel Aviv’s resources to quell.
 
It is worth remembering that chess was played in Sassanid Iran 1,400 years ago, where it was known as “chatrang.” What is occurring now off the Persian Gulf is a diplomatic and military game of chess, with global implications.
 
Washington’s concept of squeezing a country’s government by interfering with its energy policies has a dolorous history seven decades old.
 
When Japan invaded Vichy French-ruled southern Indo-China in July 1941 the U.S. demanded Japan withdraw. In addition, on 1 August the U.S., Japan’s biggest oil supplier at the time, imposed an oil embargo on the country.
 
Pearl Harbor occurred less than four months later.

 

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Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:01 | 2029665 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

It's a Strait and this piece was strongly backed by... opinion.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:07 | 2029711 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Well, so much for "bringing our troops home and ending these senseless wars".

Obamanation.

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:17 | 2029790 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

Tsssk.
He is aiming for one more Peace prize and Streets of Hormuz may get it for him.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:28 | 2029858 trav7777
trav7777's picture

if this is chess, we are up 3 queens and a rook

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:42 | 2029932 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

the MIC should be bombing berlin not iRan.
German elite KSK Kommando Spezialkräfte Harry Burkhart was captured after carrying out surgical bombings in LA:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2081255/LA-arson-fires-Police-pr...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:01 | 2029992 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Interesting. A race-realist who's otherwise a moron. US will be attempting to defeat a country of 80 million w 3-6 carrier battle groups, + local land-based airpower and whatever its Israeli master is willing/able to contribute. Not going to work. In military terms, while Iran's conventional forces are not impressive, it's capacity for assymetric warfare is large: 5,000 suicide boats, among much else. If I were ZOG, I would not begin the war w any carriers north of the straits. Won't get 'em back. Meanwhile, the situation in Afghanistan will continue to deteriorate, the Green Zone in Baghdad will be under a Shi'ite seige, a Russian carrier battle group is covering Syria, and Hamas and Hezbollah will both hammer Yizroel. In economic terms, oil at c. $250/barrel will, once China and Japan dump, kill the dollar. Don't know about chess, but if it's a poker game Isramerica is drawing to a desperate, unlikely inside straight against Iran's 3 Aces.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:02 | 2030042 CIABS
CIABS's picture

whatever is going on over there, i don't think the real essence of it is being reported or opined very widely.  i don't see much evidence of recklessness on the part of the iranian state since 1979, if ever.

what with stuxnet and the like, the public will have a hard time sizing things up.  the oil futures are an indicator, but i don't think they'll be saying much until and unless the may 2011 high is surpassed.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:10 | 2030076 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Iran, Syria, North Korea and even Kosovo are being brought to a boil simultaneously.  Tis all part of the "plan" that got underway when the Soviet Union seemingly collapsed 20 years ago:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2010/03/quick-review-of-history.htm...

BTW, the reason you don't all realize this is because you are just unwitting frogs in the water pot.  Don't you worry, Big Brother has everything under control.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:55 | 2030296 clones2
clones2's picture

The US is playing chess.....   Iran still hasn't gotten past checkers...

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 20:27 | 2030916 Azwethinkweiz
Azwethinkweiz's picture

It's still under consideration that Chess originated in Iran. They're not as dumb as everyone thinks...that's also something to take into consideration.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:38 | 2030467 d_senti
d_senti's picture

Hey, are you the same guy who thinks he's the reincarnation of Jesus Christ? I left a comment on your blog a while ago telling you to seek professional help.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 22:37 | 2031317 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

he hasn't been trolling here too much, recently, imo

he's not going to change; this is his business

at least he doesn't go on about fractals all the time... 


Wed, 01/04/2012 - 04:16 | 2032113 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"Fractals," a word that's degenerated to annoying buzzword status, kinda like "parydigm shift", or "thinking outside the box."

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 18:51 | 2030686 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Iran Syria and North korea don't have rothchilds banks. And precisely what the fuck does this have to do with Russia you lying jew.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:05 | 2030059 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

How-it-will-play-out scenarios are like assholes, we all got them and they all stink. Restore sanity. Start local. All these bastards have a death wish. Start a "convert a lunatic foundation" ASAP.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:40 | 2030221 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

I was growing concerned that we would miss your daily Jew / Israel hate speech.

 

Mazel tov !

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 18:48 | 2030682 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

running an empire sure is a bitch

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 21:53 | 2031213 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Bomb their refineries. These Maroons can't refine gas to save their lives, they have to import.  No gas, war grinds to a halt.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:42 | 2030179 11b40
11b40's picture

TRAV.  You sound like a Congressman.  Have another shot of hubris, but when you sober up, take a good look at a map.

When gasoline is $10 Gal, if you can find any, you might just wonder who really got rooked.  Checkmate in this game may mean the board gets turned over.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 04:19 | 2032116 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Speaking of Hubris:

"...Today we are just dealing with the Sea of Oman. Therefore, we can control it from right here and this is one of our prime abilities for such vital straits and our abilities are far, far more than they think."

Not saying that Iran can't cause some serious disruptions in the flow of the spice -- but for how long?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:09 | 2030352 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

if this is chess, we are up 3 queens and a rook

If this were poker... a FLUSH beats a STRAIT

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:25 | 2029842 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Goldman Sachs is Chief of Naval Operations.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:40 | 2029882 eureka
eureka's picture

Yep. US needs to think long and hard before starting WWIII to divert attention from its financial rot and general imperial decline and to cause global financial "flight to security" i.e. US bonds - all of which is precisely the US elite's gameplan (rather than the here and elsewhere rumored mere printing ad infinitum).

IF - US elite does launch WWIII - the cost WILL be total US isolation. Nato WILL crumble. Every US embassy around the world WILL be blown up. Nobody likes a bully and the planned false flag ops WILL NOT convince ANYONE.

US citizens must demand a US Renaissance based on a new US manufacturing sector which provides the vast majority if not all US consumer goods AND R&D of new technology - lead by executives who actually like to work and have no interest in just leveraging millions into their pockets every month.

The idea of "nationhood" is that every citizen shares reasonably in sacrifice and reward.

Renaissance or Death, Bitchez. NO MORE EMPIRE.

The one with the biggest gun only wins for a while. In the end symetrical intelligence wins every time.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:38 | 2030209 pkea
pkea's picture

The cost will be much higher than just US isolation.  The beginning of the war this year appears to be unavoidable. There is nothing else to distract from the fact of western financial system bankruptcy. I expect for things to get apparent within a few months by spring and full blown by summer. This is how all depressions working themselves out to distract from the naked "kings".  The elites never cared and neither they will, but they will be allright

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 18:51 | 2030687 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

another nice post. Unfortunately, this seems to be the standard empire in decline MO

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:02 | 2030325 SamAdams1234
SamAdams1234's picture

Don't for get to thank Miss Lindsay Graham and his BFF, John McCain and his BFF, Senator Liberman.Keep breeding American meat-muppets for the boys to play GI Joes together.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 22:41 | 2031369 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

This is going to be a nasty war, it truly will be.  Because for one, most of Iran isn't flat desert it's mountainous and rugged so tanks won't be as beneficial.  Two, they are a population of 75 million people and not 25 million splintered by 3 or 5 ethnic groups like Iraq.  They are over 89% shiite.  Three, they have alot of missiles and torpedos of all types that are designed to kill ships.  The last thing is there ballistic missiles or even cruise missiles could target Abqaiq oil facility in Saudi Arabia.  It's the largest oil refinery in the world and it refines 6 million or more barrels of oil a day.  So Iran target this with massive missile attack (there missiles are accurate short ranged) and do enough damage it could literally seize up the oil markets and make 200 dollars a barrel look like a deal.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 00:40 | 2031747 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Don't forget all the former-Soviet chemical and biological scientists going hungry in the 'Stans Iran hired after the fall of the USSR.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:44 | 2030245 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

Looks more like a strait flush coming, much better than a mere strait

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:02 | 2029677 ACP
ACP's picture

Steve Liesman is a dick. Unrelated, but I can't stand seeing his ugly mug.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:03 | 2029687 maxmad
maxmad's picture

I heard he sits when he pees....

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:12 | 2029697 ACP
ACP's picture

Or pees when he sits.

It also would make the term 'cocksucker' both literal as well as figurative.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:33 | 2029887 OliverTwist
OliverTwist's picture

you meant s(h)its when he pees...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:04 | 2030051 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/aug/21/unthinkable-having-a-sit-down

German "men" are shamed into it, sitting when peeing that is, ha no wonder the Greeks keep doing them up the chute...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:31 | 2030440 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

In the <armed service>, they taught us to wash our hands.

Oh yeah? Well in the <other armed service>, they taught us not to piss on ourselves.

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 20:15 | 2030895 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Women only think sitting is cleaner since they NEVER raise the lid and see what it looks like after one of their massive ass explosions. Not to mention that men clean the bowl with their stream.

When women's restrooms are half as clean as men's, then I'll listen. Until then...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:02 | 2029681 maxmad
maxmad's picture

$200-pfft!  Wake me up when we reach $400!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:09 | 2029731 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

It would be a death nail.. F'n war mongering, racist pigs.  I hope the world (and US) reaction to this crime againts humanity is a surprise and the punishment for those that start this war be swift and harsh.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:17 | 2029785 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

it's death knell...

just sayin'

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:56 | 2030019 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Thanks professor..

It's a combination of "death knell" (an omen of death or destruction) and "nail in the coffin." according to urban dictionary.. 
Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:10 | 2030079 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

but you gotta admit, "death nail" is sort of humorous ... makes me think of vampires.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:16 | 2030385 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Death Nail.... is that like fucking someone and finding out they have AIDS?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 18:52 | 2030694 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

I thought it was the hang nail of death nells

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 20:35 | 2030933 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

In 08' diesel blew up from 2.75 gallon to 5 bucks. Our fuel bill rocketed from 30k to 100k per month. The fucker's will use any excuse to hammer fuel cost. Potash went from 255 ton to 865 ton in 3 months, all blamed on China buying. The list goes on as you all know. Get ready for pain, it is coming again. 

And they wonder why small business engine is not cranking out job's!! Want a simple answer? There sick of the criminal BS!   

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 22:27 | 2031324 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Trucking used to be damn good with the old western union telegraph money coming in on Saturdays and leave next sunday with more than you made the week prior. 1000 here 1000 there... and a bit of stiff on the side to ease the pain of bad roads. (No airride back then)

Anyone out of high school with a good back went to the docks and made good money. All they had to do was stay awake and correctly move the boxes to pallet and into the trailers.

The docks are gone, only to become militarized in security and the drivers got out while the getting is good.

Still orientation fills up for a 3 day motivational period and hit the road ready to go make money. Only to tire and quit after three months.

 

That's ok, there are 50 more scheduled into orientation next week, and the week after that and so on.

 

The next wave is coming as DOT Medical cards being valid and current are being tied to ALL CDL's in interstate commerce and some intrastate as well.

No medical card when renew? No cdl. Period. THose will be regulated to body hauling or honeybees type work. (Tier two)

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 23:32 | 2031544 logically possible
logically possible's picture

Max, 
I'm still waiting for a swift and harsh punishmint for those that started the last war.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:33 | 2029886 Drunken Monkey
Drunken Monkey's picture

You're in for a good nap. The next stop after $200 is $25 when the economy gets run through the wood chipper and demand is destroyed.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:11 | 2030084 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Did someone say 'wood chipper'? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qWFhDvURLg

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 19:59 | 2030855 Drunken Monkey
Drunken Monkey's picture

The Fed. wears plaid flannel.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 18:14 | 2030613 Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

bingo, i doubt we'd even see 200, and if we did, it would be very, very brief

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 19:32 | 2030792 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

But if none of it is coming through?...

 

I don't remeber the stat for the exact % but it is at least 10% of the world's oil oozing through that lil ole bottleneck...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 23:46 | 2031571 logically possible
logically possible's picture

Ms,
The article states, roughly 40% of the worlds tanker shipments come through the strait of Hormez. That would definitely get some notice.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 21:04 | 2031040 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

$25, or 25 "New and Improved Bank of the World Coupons?"

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:03 | 2029684 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Libya worked pretty well for the PTB,

Iran ought to be a bigger success.

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 04:51 | 2032138 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

good point/link.  libya is just starting.  ditto egypt.  ditto iraq.  all moves toward democracy in the formerly authoritarian muslim world are against the interests of the current u.s./israeli policy as the voters are far more radical and hate u.s./israeli policies much more than (former) dictators.  and, since voters, with more legitimacy.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:04 | 2029695 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Iran elections in march which tells you the western assasination/drone campaign is an utter fail. Western prospects are bleak. fars over weekend running article talking about completion of new gasoline refiner and net exporter. israel erecting wall with Jordan and Egypt wants to put accords to referendum. israel totally isolated. Dont miss the russian manuevers off the Syrian coast ongoing

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:06 | 2029701 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

O/T 

Drudgereport has a presidential poll. Go Vote. 

10 billion page views last year.

Ron is winning right now by 3%

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:07 | 2029717 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Dont pump oil please.

We are so f.ked with oil price at current prices at 200 imagine...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:08 | 2029723 0ppenheimer
0ppenheimer's picture

It's well established international doctrine that force may be used to re-open international waterways being obstructed.

Iran doesn't stand a chance against the US fleet in the region and they know it. 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:10 | 2029737 SDRII
SDRII's picture

eating soup with a fork....

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:16 | 2029781 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

And the Iranian people will be waiting on shore with flowers for the American Navy men and women.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:32 | 2030169 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

No land war in Iran.  Not going to happen, no way.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:23 | 2029828 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Iran has two big allies now. Russia (who have a naval group in the Medeterranian near Syria), and China who has stated:

Last Month, Major General Zhang Zhaozhong, professor from the Chinese National Defense University, said China would not hesitate to protect the Islamic Republic against a military strike, even if this means the start of the Third World War.

 

Also Hu Jintao placed the chinese naval forces on alret status for possible prolonged conflict. Geopolitics are a bitch, but this is more than Iran versus the US.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:37 | 2029894 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

Russia is not Iran's ally. Russia is using Iran as strategic leverage against the west via NATO expansion into eastern Europe and the missile defense shield. That line of reasoning is that the Russians would want to get NATO to give up on missile defense in Eastern Europe (ex-WARPAC countries) and NATO expansion in exchange for Russia getting tough with Iran. The Russians-at least the current leadership-have retained a lot of Soviet-era paranoia about NATO, and think that anti-missile defense aimed at the Middle East is a cover for missile defense aimed at the Russian nuclear deterrent, and that NATO expansion is a cover for a rehash of Barbarossa. (it plays well to nationalistic elements in Russia) A lot of Russians bemoan the loss of empire, and those are the folks that Putin plays to in Russian elections.

Russia also has commercial dealings with Iran, and ex-SecDef Bob Gates summed it up after he left office: he was giving a talk (C-SPAN covered it) and he mentioned a meeting with senior Russian national security folks when he (Gates) was CIA Director in 1991-2: He asked these guys why they were selling MiG-29s, Su-24s, T-72 tanks, Kilo-class subs, and other military equipment to Iran, signing trade deals, and agreeing to build the Bushehr nuclear reactor. They hemmed and hawed for a bit, before admitting "We don't trust them any more than you do, but we need the money."

China uses Iran for its oil and if war were to happen China will just protest the war and demand an end. They will not send their only aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf to be sunk by the US.Also they do not have a blue water navy. In other words they cannont project their military power outdie of Asia. So there is very little China can do.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:13 | 2030024 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

WBB, right China has no blue water Navy to speak of but if the leadership was willing to endure some pain and I think they are prepared for that they could turn our economy upside down tomorrow.  I think they could force Ben to turn the printers on hyperspeed with no way to hide it by flooding the market with our paper..  Never wise to piss off(whew caught it, prior to grammar nazis) our creditors too much and no we cannot cancel our debt no matter how easy or how much we want too..

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:09 | 2030075 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Off the top of my head China could use conflict in the Persian Gulf as the cue to invade Taiwan, South Korea, India for starters.  

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:34 | 2030178 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Taiwan yes.  China attack South Korea and India?  Please...  No way.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:36 | 2030189 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

Why would China want to start wars in those three nations? China would have a hard time going past the straits. The fact that the PLA still cannot move extremely large numbers of troops by sea at once. One or two US Navy carrier groups are directed to the area, Taiwan calls up all it's reserves and nobody else decides to join in. One or two US Navy carrier groups are directed to the area, Taiwan calls up all it's reserves and nobody else decides to join in.Then the US airforce will deny air supremacy. In regards to South Korea,Korea will call up its reserves,its airforce will give Chian arough time. India would be another tough time for China. China can defeat India but it will be  abloddy war while its fighting South Korea and Taiwan. China would gain nothing but lead th world against China. If Chia did that it will be defeated because taiwan,South Korea and India are all tough opponents for China to beat. It would not be China's nature to something stupid like this.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:15 | 2030383 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

US and NATO forces occupied in the Persian Gulf and China seizes the opportunity to open another front.  I was answering WBB original contention that China can't do anything, I'm not saying I'm bigger than Jesus or better than Jesus, I'm not saying China WILL attack those countries, just that they could.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 20:34 | 2030918 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

China will not attack Taiwan.

What they do is Commerce/.... eventuall Taiwan is china.

 

If there is war, I expect the CVBG Tatics, Doctrine and all the Technology we have developed since WW2 to be all on the table in harms way.

 

The thing I see it is that the Persian Gulf is going to be fighting inside a telephone booth (You young uns need to google it... it was a great way to knife a rival)

 

It will come down to damage control and the nerve of all our Warriors. There will be quite a shit load of networking and computer decision making and executing also.

 

We may have to use very special weapons such as might be mounted on board a Boomer. Non nuclear ICBMs for example. Those have a good chance to get in that narrow window to take out a target or two or 240 before it knows it's under attack.

I was thinking we can use thermobaric munitions to get into all those caves on the Iranian shore with the ICBM system. Hundreds of these little nasty burners, each with it's own GPS coordinate to hit a particular cave or target.

 

A few boomers might just end the war with Iran in a half hour. (And non nuclear either.)

 

That would be the way I do it.

The tankers? Well.... That is what the Burkes are for. They are fast and well armed enough to try and get between the go fasters and tankers. I hope we have been shipping in something based on the old Pegasus type Corvette. We will need alot of those.

 

And leave the slugging to the big boys.

 

As far as 200 dollar oil? Frankly my dear, I dont give a damn, I have my own stocks of fuel that will last a while anyway. And the means to defend the same.

(Many people will see thier gas tanks shanked and emptied into buckets overnight requiring one or two thousand dollar repairs for the entire tank.)

Gas stations will be more dangerous, I am a Sheepdog and like to fill up when the Leos do too. However being able to fill up at whatever fantastic price no one else can afford might make me a target.

I still wish we can get those Iowas back up and running over there, using all 4 of them to bludgeon the anti ship sites on the iranian shore into oblivion. Granted they require a shit load of airdefense but with the new Spin Frame RAM missiles that might be doeable. Take the tomahawks out and place these Missile arrays in place. Then it would be possible to absorb the horrific saturation attacks that will surely come.

It's going to be interesting.

 

Good hunting, it;s been 40 years, let's get it done so that the Iranian Citizens can make a new and glorious future.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 05:07 | 2032149 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

all the death technology in the world doesn't alter the fact that the "iranian people" (as the "egyptian people", "arabian people" ...) hate current u.s./israeli policies in palestine and elsewhere (i.e. supporting authoritarian regimes that quell popular views).  did iraq and afghanistan work out well?  how about israel's last war in lebanon?  

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:17 | 2030113 sullymandias
sullymandias's picture

In other words they cannont project their military power outdie of Asia.

Iran is part of Asia.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:37 | 2030203 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

East Asia is what I meant. They cannot protect their interest and investments in the middle east and north Africa.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:33 | 2030448 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

EVer heard of EMP? If they can rig those electronic photo albums to take over the computers of unsuspecting consumers, they can use more weapons than just boats, planes and a huge army.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 20:38 | 2030934 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I saw that coming a mile away, we did a paper on those in IT Security in college.

I don't bother with the damn things, it's a another trinket at walmart. Crap waste.

 

One of my computers I built is solid state with shielded wiring through and through. I am certain it may be damaged in a real EMP attack but I tried my best.

Old cars will run once you make sure the harness and points/distributor is working well. The rest of today's society will be crap and unable to go anywhere.

 

I believe the way to survive EMP is to shut down and be totally cold with no power before it hits and during it.

It will affect humans in the eyes and other ways too I believe, but don't wish to pass on any rumors or say anything that proves me a idiot. (I am already a idiot... just trying not to be a total imbecile.)

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 22:29 | 2031338 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

As I understand it whether equipment is in use or not it will be toast.  There are ways to protect equipment that involve them being held in various kinds of metal containers making sure that the protected object is not in direct contact with the metal protecting it.  That's basically all I know about it off the top of my head.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:23 | 2030133 johny2
johny2's picture

If distrusting a shark circling you can be called "paranoia", than you got one part of it right. Iran is not going to be defended by Russia or China, but if Iran gets attacked, middle east of today is soon going to look like a walk in the park.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 18:05 | 2030576 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

Russia wasn't the U.S.'s ally in WWII but the "alliance" worked. You're not thinking imaginatively enough. That's your failure. If our military has the same failure, it will be to its peril. I'm not saying Iran can win (it clearly can't), but what it can do is inflict heavy damage on our ships (I imagine it can sink one as al-qaeda nearly did so...), our morale (weak to begin with from two wars), and our economy (via oil).

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 22:25 | 2031321 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Rick, your failure is that you do not yet realize that "Al Qaeda" works for us.  It was the "bad" Al Qaeda that took down the towers from caves in Western Pakistan on 9-11, but it was the "good" Al Qaeda that overthrew Libya organized and financed by NATO.  Their name comes from the name of a CIA data base in the late 70s when Osama worked directly for the U. S.  A simple web search will confirm all of this or you can continue to revel in your failure to research the facts.  Nothing personal as I like your comments.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 05:13 | 2032155 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

the more authoritarian muslim regimes fall, (libya, egypt, tunisia, syria, ...) the more future legitimate democratic opposition to the current u.s./israeli policies there will be.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 03:45 | 2032078 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

For all the dipshits that think Russia is Iran's bosom buddy that will go to DEFCON 1 to defend that shithole let me remind you that Russia is the number one producer of oil and gas in the world, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production  Saudi Arabia is second, the USA is third, Iran is fourth, tensions rise so oil goes up, the bandit that makes out the best is he who produces the most.  Russia has zero love for Islam, or have you all forgotten Beslan?  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beslan_school_hostage_crisis in which hundreds were murdered when a school was held hostage?  And that was only one of many Islamic atrocities since the old Soviet Union fell.  Russia has helped Iran the way a poker player pumps a pot when he thinks an upstart can damage a chip leader even though he can't personally win a pot. 

I would say that I do not understand 90% of the posts here, pro Iran and venomously anti American.  Iran is a nation with greatness in it, but that greatness is being destroyed by religious dictatorship that also threatens and destroys others in the region, Syria takes orders from Iran and is now on the brink of civil war, and almost all terrorist organizations in the middle east are related or funded from Teheran.  True Islam is no more warlike than true Christianity, or Buddhism, but we all know the practical reality of all three.  They all have nuclear weapons. 

China is not going to react to this either.  You have to understand the Chinese mind, it's history, in their language the name for their country that the westerners call China is translated to mean the middle kingdom, but a better translation is the center of the universe.  And in their history the center of China was the throne of the forbidden city.  Another way to put it is that everything Chinese is good and everything outside is bad.  It is not Chinese.  A pejorative.  It is hostile, no manners, dirty.  Yet there are so many of you that think China aims for war and conquest, it does not, it feels dirty when it comes in contact with anything not Chinese.  It will sell to the dirty non Chinese, but it does not want your house or your land.  In a very real sense they are like white guys in the deep south 90 years ago who would do business with black men if it made them money, but who went home at the end of the day and crowed about how well they just did against a bunch of niggers that did not know what a days work was worth.  They sure would not allow one to marry their daughter.  And because of conditioning we seem to believe that Chinese are as politically correct as Donna Brazile, they are not.  They have to feed, and employ 1,200,000,000 people and that is with only half the population working. 

Both Russia and China have way too much to lose to go full on tap out cage fighting with the USA and Europe.  Make no mistake, the US and EU are not in the comfy relationship they were 40 years ago when NATO for all practical purposes ran Europe, but they do still have the same needs (reasonably priced oil) and the same goals.  Both China and Russia are up and coming but like the schoolboys that are maturing they also have learned lessons about challenging the alpha males.  America did not ask for the role of policeman of the world, it was thrust upon us.  America was a pacifist neutral nation, but two world wars were forced upon us anyway.  You think if we turn inward now and revert to neutral pacifism we can avoid the third?  Part of the problem was that we were neutral and pacifist, evil abroad knew they could do what they wanted with no interventions, no consequences.  Had the USA been active in diplomacy and allied to Britain in 1913 there would not have been a world war one, no WWI no WWII. 

It just does not matter how the world got in the state it is in, who drew what lines on what map for what reasons in 1565 or 1927, the oil is in the ME and we must have it.  We pay through the nose for it, and the USA has not been an aggressor or starter of wars ever.  We did not start world war one, we did not start world war two, we did not start the Korean War, we did not start the Vietnam War, we did not start the Afghan war after New York City was attacked.  THEY did.  If the USA was such an evil empire why have we not taken out Pakistan which is one of the worst nations on the planet for destabilization?  Oh I see, we are taking out Pakistan with 30 billion in aid.  That will teach them.

I get the feeling by reading the posts here that almost everyone posting is under thirty, and all the trolls are over fifty.  I am fifty three, I do not want war, I really do not want it.  But, it is the very ugliness and stench of war that makes future war not palatable, and clearly what I want or you want does not matter when there are others that consider your distaste for war as an open invitation to rape their neighbors. 

I am going to say this again, as plain as can be said, the UN carved a tiny bit of land out of the Middle East as a home for the Jews just after WW2, and said that from now on they would have a homeland, the very same acres and miles they had from the beginning of human history.  I do not support Israel because Jews always lived there and Islam is a bad thing, I support Israel because the UN was then the pinnacle of human hopes and agreements.  I could even say that had Israel existed in 1928 instead of 1948 Hitler probably would not have happened.  No matter what else, Israel has a right to exist, it is more than fair to say that those who seek it's destruction are either Islamists that violate the basic tenants of Islam or are Nazis. 

None of that matters, the USA stands as the only sane man in a huge bar fight.  Iran will do what it will do, America will react appropriately.  The rest of the world will whatever, suck it's own dick and whine about something. 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 05:18 | 2032158 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

why you don't understand 90% of the posts here: because you think it makes sense for the u.s. to defend the brutal colonialism of six million israelis against the opposition of one billion (and growing far faster) muslims.  in a nutshell.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 08:19 | 2032266 eurogold
eurogold's picture

Thanks for not forgetting to mention Hitler or Nazi in your post!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 08:48 | 2032283 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

good comment, enjoyed it +1

I can't say how many times I heard "America did not ask for the role of policeman of the world, it was thrust upon us"

please, explain, who do you mean with "us"?

sure not the global multinational corporations originally based in the US, eh?

the 80% of Americans that have never left the US are somewhat still quite ignorant of their few countrymen that manage the empire...

since you think that "it was thrust upon us", please explain what happened when the Philippines, Cuba and Panama were "taken in trust" and Mark Twain suggested the American flag should switch from stars to skulls and bones...

"the USA has not been an aggressor or starter of wars ever": well, the over 600 military interventions since WWII were not labeled as "wars", so nominally you are correct

from your tone I think you are genuine (including the "alpha male" strutting nonsense), so I'd suggest you just read up some history...

perhaps why Mark Twain become an anti-imperialist might be a good start, here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_twain#Anti-imperialist

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:29 | 2029861 Raynja
Raynja's picture

The strait isn't international waters.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 03:53 | 2032082 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Wrong

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:47 | 2029967 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Niether did N. Viet Nam. . .  er, wait a minute.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:08 | 2029725 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Oil's going to $200 / barrel with or without war with the Banana Ben and deficit spending Obama behind the wheel.

TheSilverJournal.com

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:21 | 2029814 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

It will just get there faster with a war, is all.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:25 | 2029839 roccman
roccman's picture

Translation:

 

Mitigating the effects of Peak Oil through timing...in favor of the power brokers.

Economic collapse is being defined by Peak Oil.

ARMs in 2007 were the fuse that set off the Greatest Depression - JUST AS OIL PEAKED - CREDIT PEAKED.

Think about it!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:30 | 2029871 trav7777
trav7777's picture

oil peaked in 2005, real oil, C&C.

We burnt through inventories for a couple years, making up the margins through stockpiles.  That period where the POO rose ballistically was the Wile E. Coyote part of all this

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:39 | 2029920 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

They already have nukes-that large flash and mushroom cloud you are going to see is Tel Aviv.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:22 | 2030129 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Iran has no nukes. I assure you, that Russian carrier does...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:37 | 2030199 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Russia will do nothing to Israel.  Believe otherwise?  You're dreaming.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:54 | 2030295 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

"Austria will do nothing to Serbia....". Famous Last Words.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:07 | 2030347 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

We'll see.  We can compare notes, say, in a few months.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 20:40 | 2030939 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

That Kiev Class tub?

Hah. I dont care if it does or not.

 

It is a nice carrier and I am saying that to be respectful. The Russians are dangerous when they wish to fight.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:51 | 2029991 roccman
roccman's picture

yeah 2005 - 2008 is the "peak window"

does not really matter...

 

now comes the kill off

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:09 | 2029736 sooner_gold
sooner_gold's picture

We could eliminate their entire Navy in an hour.  They are not a threat until they get nukes.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:19 | 2029796 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

They're not even a threat if they get nukes.

Iran would be turned into a big glass bowl if they used them and no-one would care - not Russia, not China no-one.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:28 | 2029853 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

So you think USA can turn anybody they don't like into glass bowl?
Can I punch you in face, as I simply don't like YOU?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:12 | 2030090 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I don't see how a nuclear war over there in Iran could have any bearing or influence on my quality of life here in North America...sarc

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:20 | 2030406 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Yeah, let's just turn everyone we don't like into big glass bowls and see how far that gets us...

as soon as you get done punching that dude in the face, can I take a whack at him with the pipe wrench?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:34 | 2030455 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Boom goes London and boom Paris (pronounced Paree),

More room for you and more room for me.

Randy Newman

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 19:44 | 2030820 brokenclock
brokenclock's picture

Americans- not the American Government will not tolerate using nukes normally.  Now that we don't live in normal times and most Americans are broke and in debt up to there eyeballs. Just give us any small excuse to turn IRAN into a glass bowl. We have been sick of there BS since 1970. I already have my Windex out and paper towels.

Remember, we are the only nation that wins wars and hands the land back to the people. We don't plant our flag. Instead we go into debt rebuilding there country and they come back and buy up half of ours. (Japan Ex) If i was the poorest country I would attack the US in a heart beat. We would have the best of everything within two decades. All courtesy of me the American taxpayer.

 

 

 

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 20:42 | 2030942 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I am thumbing up this thing, you thumbs down'ers are stupid or deliberately trying to avoid the masses learning the truth.

We do defeat our enemies and then rebuild the rubble.

I don't know of any other Nation who were able to do that.

 

I am afraid that little doctrine is the same as a Beta male saying sorry for attacking a alpha wolf who will not be in a mood to take gifts.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 05:26 | 2032165 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

lots of rubble still unrebuilt in iraq and afghanistan/pakistan.  and i'm not sure those "enemies" are "defeated".  current u.s./israeli policies are long term losers.  don't have the demographics and the world economy has grown too fragile/leveraged/dependent on exponential growth.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 22:17 | 2031291 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

That was then, and this is now. 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 23:23 | 2031513 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

If i was the poorest country I would attack the US in a heart beat.

Already been done. Perhaps you missed "The Mouse That Roared"?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:20 | 2029804 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

They do not need nukes. Simply modified warheads to carry nuclear material - which they have. A dirty bomb is a nasty bit o' work. Coupled with biological and/or chemical weapons, the Iranians are not people to screw with. A lot has changed in the past 20 years. Their navy is not the only thing that can close the strait. They (the Iranians) have land based, mobile, surface to sea missles with the capability of easily reaching the strait and any point in the strait. There is also the Russians hanging around near Syria, and the Chinese have stated implicitly - start a war with Iran, and we will start WW III. Hu Jintao placed the Chinese navy on "ready" status for "possible prolonged conflict" just 2 weeks ago.

Last Month, Major General Zhang Zhaozhong, professor from the Chinese National Defense University, said China would not hesitate to protect the Islamic Republic against a military strike, even if this means the start of the Third World War.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:31 | 2029878 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you should have put "navy" in quotes when you were referring to the Chinese.  Their navy is probably weaker than Iran's.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:43 | 2030240 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Right, except for their nuclear armed subs that can pop up in the middle of a US carrier formation without being detected.

I'm starting to wonder if you have EVER been right about ANYTHING.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:22 | 2030411 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

That was just a weather balloon... LULZ

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:51 | 2030519 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Tmos I am getting a bit tired of the sub popping up in the middle of the task force argument..  A tango on batteries sitting on the bottom especially shallow is for all intents and purposes invisible unless you sweep a MAD detector over it..  We have to know the circumstances, now if it was picked up in the outer destroyer ring and manuevered in we got BIG problems but highly doubtful that occurred.  Sounds like Kenndy's missile gap bullshit to me....

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:57 | 2030548 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

No doubt that if they're going to run on *batteries* in a non-simulation they'll let us know ahead of time...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 18:09 | 2030597 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Huh??  Tango's run on batts everytime they submerge..  Diesel electric boats normally don't run them underwater sans snorkels..

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 20:45 | 2030955 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Desiel electrics are truly dangerous. In Littoral waters. Meaning the wading pool.

 

One sunk quiet on hardly nothing, emitting no noise and covered in anti magnetic rubber etc.... sitting say... near or on/within a known mapped NOAA formation/war give etc you can have a cloud of assets above it and it will only take one good yankee ping to dig it up.

By the time you confirm it, it will have torpedos inbound.

The Brits right now are king of Torpedos. There is nothing on the planet below surface that can outrun or outdive them.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 03:30 | 2032063 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Very dangerous especially if they plot you out and sit on the bottom we (US) are a Blue water navy 6,000 foot plus we are a force of nature in shallow water bets are off..  Spearfish is good but the hypercavitating torps of the russians are nothing to sneeze at..  Great comment by the way informative and factual..

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 22:12 | 2031283 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Yes, once Trav admitted he was a horse's ass!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:24 | 2029835 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Exactly - Iran is talking shit and they don't even have the bomb.
Now imagine if they had the bomb.

Kill the little Hitlers before they become big Hitlers 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:29 | 2029863 HarryM
HarryM's picture

20,000 casualties now or 20 million later -- you decide

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:35 | 2029896 HarryM
HarryM's picture

People think the Mullahs make rational decisions. --  

Mutual Destruction is a Win in their eyes , because they are doing the work of God .

The most dangerous people on earth are religious zealots. 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:46 | 2029956 laomei
laomei's picture

The most dangerous people on earth are religious zealots. --- so, that would mean americans then. about time to put down that rabid dog i'd say.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:51 | 2029986 LoneCapitalist
LoneCapitalist's picture

We cant even say the word "christmas", but were religious zealots?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:37 | 2030196 kekekekekekeke
Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:35 | 2030456 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

Shut up. People acting like the media or Americans hate christmas are the same people who act like the media hate tebow when all they do is sing praise and hallejuah.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 19:36 | 2030805 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 Christ had to be "X"ed out in order to worship the god of war.

Shouldn't the military temples (bases) around the globe and their Pentagon "Vatican" count as a religion?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:46 | 2029961 john39
john39's picture

the U.S. government makes rational decisions? 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:38 | 2030204 Sizzurp
Sizzurp's picture

You are a dangerous war monger trying to get us into a global conflict.  Turn off the TV. We are the most dangerous people on earth because we have the most weapons and use them frequently.  So far Ahmadinejad has shown restrant in the face of extensive covert ops in his country.  Iran is not a threat and pre-emptive war is poor policy.  The constitution does not authorize it.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:48 | 2030265 sooner_gold
sooner_gold's picture

The world has been without a major war for over 50 years because of our weapons.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:56 | 2030544 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Tell that to the Korean, Vietnam, Afghan, and Iraq veterans.  I'm sure they would appreciate your denigration of those "little, itty-bitty, non-existent" wars.

The world has not been at war (like WW11) because TPTB has not deemed it time yet....they must loot, rape, and pillage the entire planet first.....THEN we will have the next big one.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 05:31 | 2032167 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

it's only a major war when your own wife and children are killed.  all else?  regrettable collateral damage.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 21:07 | 2041275 Tompooz
Tompooz's picture

peace..."because of our weapons" 

The Soviets could have argued the same.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:38 | 2029901 HarryM
HarryM's picture

The Mullahs must go - we already lost a thousand years of progress to the church - do you want to lose another thousand?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:25 | 2030423 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

from where I stand (& according to your logic), we're on pace to lose the NEXT 1,000 years of progress to the church as well...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:50 | 2030510 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

I'm assuming you are talking about YOUR church.....the Church of Satan.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:51 | 2030520 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

After all....the Bible says that Satan comes to "kill, steal, and destroy"....sounds a lot like what war does, no?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 18:02 | 2030567 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

If you read through my comments, you'll see that I'm 100% anti-war...

What I'm referring to is "going to war" in the name of God (as in... starting "wars for oil" by people who claim they "are doing God's work")...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:48 | 2029973 tim73
tim73's picture

Let me guess, you are going to fight to the last drop of other peoples' blood? That is the usual case with neocons, like Cheney or Bush. They got "more important matters" during Vietnam war...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 22:09 | 2031267 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

I agree, we have to bring the CIA to justice!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:30 | 2029874 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

U eliminate their navy forces and then what...?

Take its oil?

Waste another 10-20yrs occupying territory?

*Russia and China wont allow a US Attack to Iran

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 15:55 | 2030005 optimator
optimator's picture

Iran would fall quicker than Poland fell in '39.  As in '39, then what happens?  Flitzkreig?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:04 | 2030331 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Blitzkrieg,

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 22:08 | 2031260 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Are you saying we will give half of Iran to Russia and keep the other for ourselves?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 05:33 | 2032168 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

he's saying flitzkreig.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 16:43 | 2030239 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ hugo

All you heavy breathers need to understand that there will be NO LAND WAR vs. Iran.

Oil is fungible.  We don't need to take their oil.  Let them produce all they want.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:01 | 2030324 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Hope there is no war sir. Land,Air,Sea...

I think is a way to put pressure into Chinese Economy ....oil high will make China hardlanding a reality....

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 17:10 | 2030356 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I agree with both points.  + 1

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