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Guest Post: War Imminent In Straits Of Hormuz? $200 A Barrel Oil?
Submitted by John C.K. Daly of OilPrice.com
War Imminent In Straits Of Hormuz? $200 A Barrel Oil?
The pieces and policies for potential conflict in the Persian Gulf are seemingly drawing inexorably together.
Since 24 December the Iranian Navy has been holding its ten-day Velayat 90 naval exercises, covering an area in the Arabian Sea stretching from east of the Strait of Hormuz entrance to the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden. The day the maneuvers opened Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari told a press conference that the exercises were intended to show "Iran's military prowess and defense capabilities in international waters, convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries, and test the newest military equipment." The exercise is Iran's first naval training drill since May 2010, when the country held its Velayat 89 naval maneuvers in the same area. Velayat 90 is the largest naval exercise the country has ever held.
The participating Iranian forces have been divided into two groups, blue and orange, with the blue group representing Iranian forces and orange the enemy. Velayat 90 is involving the full panoply of Iranian naval force, with destroyers, missile boats, logistical support ships, hovercraft, aircraft, drones and advanced coastal missiles and torpedoes all being deployed. Tactics include mine-laying exercises and preparations for chemical attack. Iranian naval commandos, marines and divers are also participating.
The exercises have put Iranian warships in close proximity to vessels of the United States Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, which patrols some of the same waters, including the Strait of Hormuz, a 21 mile-wide waterway at its narrowest point. Roughly 40 percent of the world's oil tanker shipments transit the strait daily, carrying 15.5 million barrels of Saudi, Iraqi, Iranian, Kuwaiti, Bahraini, Qatari and United Arab Emirates crude oil, leading the United States Energy Information Administration to label the Strait of Hormuz "the world's most important oil chokepoint."
In light of Iran’s recent capture of an advanced CIA RQ-170 Sentinel drone earlier this month, Iranian Navy Rear Admiral Seyed Mahmoud Moussavi noted that the Iranian Velayat 90 forces also conducted electronic warfare tests, using modern Iranian-made electronic jamming equipment to disrupt enemy radar and contact systems. Further tweaking Uncle Sam’s nose, Moussavi added that Iranian Navy drones involved in Velayat 90 conducted successful patrolling and surveillance operations.
Thousands of miles to the west, adding oil to the fire, President Obama is preparing to sign legislation that, if fully enforced, could impose harsh penalties on all customers for Iranian oil, with the explicit aim of severely impeding Iran’s ability to sell it.
How serious are the Iranians about the proposed sanctions and possible attack over its civilian nuclear program and what can they deploy if push comes to shove? According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ The Military Balance 2011, Iran has 23 submarines, 100+ “coastal and combat” patrol craft, 5 mine warfare and anti-mine craft, 13 amphibious landing vessels and 26 “logistics and support” ships. Add to that the fact that Iran has emphasized that it has developed indigenous “asymmetrical warfare” naval doctrines, and it is anything but clear what form Iran’s naval response to sanctions or attack could take. The only certainty is that it is unlikely to resemble anything taught at the U.S. Naval Academy.
The proposed Obama administration energy sanctions heighten the risk of confrontation and carry the possibility of immense economic disruption from soaring oil prices, given the unpredictability of the Iranian response. Addressing the possibility of tightened oil sanctions Iran’s first vice president Mohammad-Reza Rahimi on 27 December said, “If they impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz.”
Iran has earlier warned that if either the U.S. or Israel attack, it will target 32 American bases in the Middle East and close the Strait of Hormuz. On 28 December Iranian Navy commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari observed, "Closing the Strait of Hormuz for the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran is very easy. It is a capability that has been built from the outset into our naval forces' abilities."
But adding an apparent olive branch Sayyari added, "But today we are not in the Hormuz Strait. We are in the Sea of Oman and we do not need to close the Hormuz Strait. Today we are just dealing with the Sea of Oman. Therefore, we can control it from right here and this is one of our prime abilities for such vital straits and our abilities are far, far more than they think."
There are dim lights at the end of the seemingly darker and darker tunnel. The proposed sanctions legislation allows Obama to waive sanctions if they cause the price of oil to rise or threaten national security.
Furthermore, there is the wild card of Iran’s oil customers, the most prominent of which is China, which would hardly be inclined to go along with increased sanctions.
But one thing should be clear in Washington – however odious the U.S. government might find Iran’s mullahcracy, it is most unlikely to cave in to either economic or military intimidation that would threaten the nation’s existence, and if backed up against the wall with no way out, would just as likely go for broke and use every weapon at its disposal to defend itself. Given their evident cyber abilities in hacking the RQ-170 Sentinel drone and their announcement of an indigenous naval doctrine, a “cakewalk” victory with “mission accomplished” declared within a few short weeks seems anything but assured, particularly as it would extend the military arc of crisis from Iraq through Iran to Afghanistan, a potential shambolic military quagmire beyond Washington’s, NATO’s and Tel Aviv’s resources to quell.
It is worth remembering that chess was played in Sassanid Iran 1,400 years ago, where it was known as “chatrang.” What is occurring now off the Persian Gulf is a diplomatic and military game of chess, with global implications.
Washington’s concept of squeezing a country’s government by interfering with its energy policies has a dolorous history seven decades old.
When Japan invaded Vichy French-ruled southern Indo-China in July 1941 the U.S. demanded Japan withdraw. In addition, on 1 August the U.S., Japan’s biggest oil supplier at the time, imposed an oil embargo on the country.
Pearl Harbor occurred less than four months later.
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I agree we don't need to put boots inside Iran to fight them.
And China is Food. Choke that and they will drop like a Sumo with a heart condition.
who among nations currently looks like a sumo with a heart condition? hmmm? i realize there's quite a competition so: most like a sumo .... could it be the one with the most extended military and the world reserve currency moving into its fifth decade of pure fiat status as its federal deficit passes its gdp during the first deflationary depression in eighty years? one could go on.
Oil is the only thing backing the dollar... Not that I'm all that interested in seeing the dollar survive...
REALLY. Look up the term"Chokepoint," and then go look at a map of the region.
"We"? Who the hell is "We"? It's not my country anymore. You Zionist mass-murderers stole it from me. I want it back. I will have it back. The days of organized Jewry are numbered.
You mean to tell me the Taliban have nukes?!
ZH is getting alot of milage out this 'Iran is going to kick USA's ass' story.
STFU. Great spelling, dick.
You realize this is a message board and not a grammar and spelling exam, right? That's the weakest of all slams.
I hope I don't totally F-up and use its instead of it's....that shame of it.
+1
+ 1
What's with junking Goldilocks?
Merv is gonna be pissed and you don't want to pissoff Merv..
Although...the ability to spell is usually a good measure of your ability to think clearly.
We have an "edit" button. Google search the term and use same. Have a nice day. I hate Purdue by the way!
Are you paid retard? You should notice by now that majority of people attending this site are pro peace and they don't want any more wars, they want to live in peace and let others do the same thing, and go after their lives, do whatever they know the best. Go and boil your kettle somewhere else!
I'm 'pro war'? Why, because I'm calling bullshit on the entire premise that Iran is going to tangle with the US 5th fleet?
Give me a f'ing break. It's just not going to happen and Iran isn't going to start a war they can't win (in military terms). They won't even engage with the US military. Period. That's the point.
Yeah. It's like the summer of 1914. Just a little brinksmanship....
And what's your point?
5-t, 6-th, 7-th whatever that it is?
U.S. can't defeat the scraggly taliban in afghanistan. why should anyone think this blatent bit of aggression in attacking Iran is going to go any better long term? (even ignoring the complete immorailty the unjustified act). U.S. is broke and collapsing, this evil war will just speed it up. Of course the parasites starting all these wars don't give a shit about that... but Americans won't understand that until its too late.
exactly what John39 said plus its one thing to come over in a big show of force, build a "green zone" and some bases, its quite another to control a whole valley in Afghanistan comprised of bearded opium growing peasants (no disrespect intended).
control a whole valley in Afghanistan comprised of bearded opium growing peasants
Who "grows" the opium is of no consequence... Who PROFITS from it is... The CIA has to find some way to fund itself dontcha know?
recently read Inside Delta Force, by a dude who was one of the original operators. Interesting book, he made it seem like every operation he was sent on was to clean up the CIA messes. In fact made the claim that some of the airlines that were hijacked in the 80's were hijacked by the CIA so they could keep running drugs all over the place.
The US has done much more than the USSR had done in a decade over there in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan is a bad place to have a battle. Always will be as it have been for tens of thousands of years.
We went there to get that Binny Boy, now ding dong he's sunk to the fishes, I dont care anymore about Afghanistan.
In fact if we continue to stay in Afghanistan, Pakistan might want to fight the USA and where better than right on thier border?
Remember that on the day we flew into Afghanistan to take over the place we sent a simple note to the Pakis. Stay out of our way or you will be bombed into oblivion or something to that effect.
Adding insult to injury, Walmart sells socks made in Pakistan.
Hungry, hate to break you out of your spell, but unlike the Russians we are in Afghanistan for the poppy seeds and $500,000,000,000.00 in drug money. We help them grow the stuff and launder the money through international banks.
Ha, ha, yes they killed Osama again on May 1, 2011 and silver just happened to crash the same night.
Geez, turn off CNN! Speaking of the establishment media a recent Nielsen poll showed that if it weren't for Chris Matthew's family tuning into his show each night his audience would dip below "100".
Falling wall needs a little nudge. Iran knows it.
u.s. consumers paying 5-6 bucks a gallon is 'iran kicking usa's ass'.......
It will take a much larger price tag (Jackboot) to penetrate my wide ass far enough to hurt.
Call it 16 to 25 dollar gas or desiel before I get sick and disgusted at the thought of buying gasoline.
Remember, that is one of the reasons we are trying to be debt free where it counts so we can apply one to two thousand each month for a bit of gas if necessary.
Remember I was raised by a generation who endured rationing that will make our Nation riot today.
We make do with little and not want much.
CPHRIONXAY
using modern Iranian-made electronic jamming equipment
They are amusing. They mean Russian jamming equipment.
Which means we likely have countermeasures.
Which means we...
Didn't help that RQ-170 much...
RQ-170 is such an awkward moniker.
We have the names of Predator and Reaper....
I propose the name of the RQ-170 be.....(drumroll, please)....
The Gary Power.
Well, I heard a story second hand that apparently Israel got a lock onto and tried to shoot at a SR71 Blackbird making a run. If the story teller is to be believed, the Pilots were puckered up and pushed the blackbird past speeds to get out.
They apparently got thier pictures.
Is this the America we are looking at now? Little radio controlled models of planes doing dirty work?
Man I loved that Blackbird.
If you liked Blackbird you will be gaga over Aurora.. You did not actually think we would give up the flexibility of manned reconnaisance flights for satellites did you??
http://www.fas.org/irp/mystery/aurora.htm
It won't be just price, either! It will affect AVAILABILITY!
I see shortages of oil, gasoline, and rationing coming if the Strait of Hormuz is close beyond one week.
If it stay closed more than 2 months, we will have food shortages the following summer when farmers can't run their machines to grow food!
This is exactly correct.
People always hear "price is going up" and they bitch about it (bitching being the national sport) but they don't give a crap, they'll pay the price.
What they don't realize is that war in the ME involving the Straits will curtail availability. That doesn't mean expensive gas, that means no gas at any price. Sure you would pay it, but you can't find it.
In the case of any decrease in supply there would be priorities for who gets what. We live in a police state so the police and army get theirs first. Then government functions (including local government) and anything left will go to the local service station for the commuters in their SUVs to knife-fight over in lines that stretch around the block.
Been there done that.
Odd Even days in the Arab Embargo.
Some waits were 6 blocks around and 4 hours for a rationed 5 gallons of gas.
We started stalking the Gasoline tankers then and where they stopped to feed a station, so did we to get the gas.
We made a mistake or two because we did not know the hazmat diamond 4 digit number for gasoline. Some were Jet fuel =)
Now as far as I am concerned the bloody gas station can be dry as a bone for weeks and month or more and I don't give a goddamn. It's safer for Society that way.
Gives the People a chance to relax and slow down thinking over their rat races downtown.
I thought 20 dollar oil was high and 1.50 gas expensive in a old 71 Cleveland boss. Little did I understand the true horror until after Katrina wiped out 4 of our 5 pipe lines....
Katrina stands today for me as a memory of lessons learned when a Great nation is hit really hard where it hurts the most.
world's largest oil rig in gull island is ready to go in alaska, as is the opening of new oil fields across the US once oil reaches 150-200 bucks. after iran it's saudi arabia!
Yep... and Tinkerbell will throw the power switch....
Agreed Sabra1. Detractors will have to sit back and watch in amazment as what you say unfolds. Yes, Lindsey Wiliams said that the Saudi Monarchy would be the last to fall in MENA.
Yes, we will be utterly amazed.... it would be like getting a DVD of the original Fatima event...
Drill Bitch Drill.
And I aint calling you Baby either, you earned it now.
But Dow is still up about 200 pts. Go figure!
You say the Persians are playing chess? We are screwed, maybe Imadinnerjacket will play Obama at tic-tac toe or maybe hangman.. Words like tyranny, nineteen eighty four, ACLU sucks, would probably be good for the bamster..
If it cant be played on a teleprompter then B O is lost.
+ 1, Calm and Elwood
My LOL of the day...
Love it! :) got my automatic down, took a while, you sleeping at the switch bitch? Hey CC how you doin?? Try my cell..
The author of the article cites the US embargo of oil to Japan. He doesn't seem to have noticed how that bit ended. As for the Mullahs, it doesn't seem that their legitimacy runs very deep in the minds of Iran's educated people. For my part I do not see how we can fail to take a threat on the Strait of Hormuz less than seriously. Yes, we could fail to embargo Iranian oil. They for their part, could actually stop pursuing nuclear arms. Both have to happen together, or neither will. My guess is that neither will. Since they already threaten bases over a wide geographical spread with missiles and subsidize Hezbullah (far from their own borders) the Mullahs seem intent on a little empire themselves. Between two empires there are no ethical restrictions to be seen in history. In other words, we only lose by waiting. A rising tyranny has this problem: It can only increase its power with big centrally controlled bombs. The option of becoming a nation of rifleman and M40 operators is not an option, for it enables rebellion. The old rock-and-a-hard-place conundrum.
Umm, not sure if you noticed but the mullah's established their legitimacy when their thugs kicked the shit out of the educated minority in the streets last year. Not sure if we have two empires here champ as one has to import much of its gasoline not much of an empire imo..
Bullish!
f you support Ron Paul, PLEASE go to drudgereport.com and vote in their IN HOUSE poll. It's right at the top and DOES NOT link you or spam you. I just voted and after it just shows the results.
RON PAUL 2012
28% and climbing at this time.
Thanks for voting!
Over 31% now! One hell of a lot of votes...
Just voted, he's over 29% now. Why is Herman Cain on that ballot and why did 4500 morons vote for him?
Because this is AMERIKA and you are free to be a humongous, mind-controlled IDIOT if you want! LOL
All of this is nothing but noise until November.
Randall-you just answered your own question. this IS the United States we're talking about here.....Morons. the reason we will STILL need a military in 2072.
You answered your own question -- they're morons. RP is over 30% at Drudge now and at 41% at Politico. That'll give someone acid reflux.
Edit: That's what I get for answering the phone and leaving the reply window open without checking to see that someone beat me to the obvious.
Why is Herman Cain on that ballot and why did 4500 morons vote for him?
They were Obama Democrats who were afraid of being called RAYCISS
Nothing Diebold can't fix like a tomcat at the vet when it gets right down to it.
You can only manipulate so much before absolutely everybody knows what happened, even those in a coma.
Fixing a 25% gap would be like the vet shoving a pound of butter up a tomcat's ass with a red-hot poker.
The picture you paint is not one of beauty!
A pound went for 500 dollars in Norway during the Christmas Holiday time. Shortage of dairy you know.
Import restrictions, BITCHEZ!
D@mn! How ever did they stuff their kitties??
Because they are morons!
Also at http://www.politico.com/
Ron Paul 55%.
Strange game. The only winning move is not to play.
Nice.
Funny though, that's the part that always trips them up. Seems Ike was right after all.
How about a nice game of chess?
no way we start trouble before elections. obama doesnt need a $200 oil headache. same reason why qe3 isnt happening before elections. now post elections, assuming obamaromney wins, look for the fireworks to begin................
Obama doesn't need a $50 oil headache either, which would send us into a deflationary spiral. You wonder why the media is spending so much time in Iowa? They want most of these guys to drop out of the race, because if everyone of them stays in, and they all win one state, no one wins the election this fall. To this point they all have the same reason to stay in, and money is no longer the point as long as the media continues to give them free press coverage (trying to achieve something at the same time they are producing the opposite result) Wait until the Dems start to primary Obama. Ten candidates, and nobody is quitting, think about it.
There isnt going to be a democratic primary; that is a fantasy. The democrats are simply more united than republicans it seems and if the republicans can't pick a candidate, Obama wins. Its not a default; I don't know where you getting that from. Obama will get the same amount of votes (more or less) no matter who the republicans elect, with the exception of Ron Paul.
Hmm, fame (and the resulting press coverage) is a helluva drug...probably even more potent than Corruptol! :>D
Uh, US militaristic hubris gone wild on ZH...?
Look at a map, I could fuck up that pinch point with a box of plastic spoons.
Got abiotic oil?
Just one little quibble.
Stand there in that salty crappy water and look at the shore with it's multitude of caves each one hiding a missile or weapon that can hurt you.
It would be a death of a thousand cuts to passage. The fat whale of tankers wont get through.
But we will try. It wont be the first time we did it.
ANWAR and other large resources should have been fully online by now. We need it badly. Now that the Alaska Pipeline is aging and pumping less and less.
I also thought if OPEC would play the same game as USA and put oil embargo on USA?
Not gonna happen, as many of them have USA leaning government, but we know what would happen in such scenario.
I'm not sure that US is up for a game of diplomatic chess right now. Can we instead engage in a game of diplomatic Hungry Hungry Hippos?
In recent month's China has decreased oil export's from Iran from 500k bbl's per day to 285k per day. China sound's like they are sick of the saber show as well. Vietnam and other's are filling the gap is the word.
"
Foreign Oil: China has a plan. We don't."And for the sake of our economy, our security, and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as president: In 10 years, we will finally end our dependence on oil from the Middle East."
— President Barack Obama
http://www.pickensplan.com/theplan2/china/
If you think china is making a path for the US to invade I'd think again.
No, not at all. I personally hope there is no war period. My point is who and where is Iran's oil being sold to know and what are the increases and decreases over the last few month's. I can't imagine any country being happy about this saber show.
"My point is who and where is Iran's oil being sold to know and what are the increases and decreases over the last few month's."
No mystery there. It's all fucking lies. BBC is claiming 1 billion apps were downloaded in december of 2011. Which is so outrageously fake that an idiot could see it.
You just gotta remember one thing. They are lying. And who they are doesn't matter. That report is there because it makes you jump to a conclusion. A conclusion that china is folding on iran cut off and strike. All I know is something out there is very very angry. The kind of nail you to the concrete and take an auger drill to your ass angry. And that something doesn't come from 30 million people. It comes from billions.
Interesting......
Thank you for the reply.
We would kick Iran's sorry, pitiful Navy to hell and back; the Russians won't interfere as their Navy is about as inept as St Lucia's, and the Chinks may talk but won't act. They know they would be cut to shreads, and their largest trading partner would stop trading. What would they do with 400 million unemployed? they have no naval air, their subs sound like Greyhound buses and can be tracked for MANY miles, and their surface fleet is not true blue water.
Don't get me wrong, I ain't for fighting this kind of war. The better tact is to support and arm the anti-government forces, and let them bring the mullahs' heads to the chopping block. Suadi is - at lteast to me - more of a long term threat than Iran. Iran looks west and sees us arming the UAE, the Saudis, and Dubai with weapons they can't touch. The Saudis support us simply to do their dirty work for them, and then drip drip drip, the oil will be cut off. Saudi Arabia is like a good looking woman in the bar at midnight after you've had 3 too many - she looks good by candlelight but turn on the lights, and omigosh, beat by the ugly stick she was.
"Their subs sound like greyhound buses". 'Cept for the one that popped to the surface, undetected, smack in the middle of a US carrier battle group.
The only way we we 'win' is through negotiation. Any other attempt will force a 5500-man deficit in the first hour of of combat. and the way they're acting, I'm of the opinion they ARE SITTING ON SOMETHING BIGGER. Something is not right here.
You could be right. The certainly have become very bold lately.
Iran is not sitting on something bigger, but behind them is sitting something bigger known as Russia and China. China gets the majority of its oil from Iran. What would the U. S. do if China made a move on Taiwan right now?!
Hence, never choose your women or linen under candlelight.
I seem to recall that China is storing $Trillion(s) in T-Bills...
Strategically, Iran has been the central problem of the middle since 1926 when the astonishing nature of Saudi Oil fields was first discovered. It was obvious that the most capable power in the area would always be Iran, and they could easily take the oil fields for themselves unless western powers intervened. England created Iraq to block a land invasion by Iran of the oil. This acutally worked in the Iran Iraq war of 1980-88. Difficulties with Sadam made invasion necessary, it's not clear the new Iraq could counter the Iranian again.
However, they don't call it the Persian Gulf for nothing, and Iran's naval power is obviously an attempt to threaten the oil by other means. Iranians are not Arabs, they are Persians, with a different language, culture and ethnicity. They have a very long history of civilization. That they share a religion with the Arabs is a small part of the equation. Iran doesn't have a right to Saudi Arabia's oil anymore than we do. The free flow of oil out of the gulf is a global security issue not a regional one. We don't import oil from the middle east anymore, but the rest of the world does.
This is really about nuclear weapons, Iran is trying to make it about oil. Neither is negotiable.
You murderous lying fuck. It's no more "about" oil than the Iraq debacle was about oil. It's about keeping Israel on the map. The selfsame that already has 400 nukes aimed at Iran. And for THAT our ZOG is willing to risk all, and I do mean all. We are in the hands of a criminal regime.
AND: Iran hasn't attacked anybody since c. 476 BC. Iran attacked and partitioned by Russia/Britain in 1941. Legal gov't overthrown 1953 by CIA/BP. Attacked by Isramerican stooge Sadaam Hussein in mid-1980s: 1,000,000 Iranians KIA repelling that aggression. I'd say Iran has about had a gutful of the "West".
Wow, get a grip. Hezbollah? Iranian made IEDs in Iraq and AfPak? Those poor peaceable Iranians - just sitting around plotting the demise of Israel and NOT for the palestiniains, but only for their own hatred? And Saddam an Israamerican stooge? That one is rich. So Mahmoud is a Rusnorkinese stooge?
Only decaf for you dude.
I thought everyone knew that Saddam was brought to power in Iraq by USA.
Honestly, all of the recent pieces around here on the Strait of Hormuz have been the same fucking thing done a dozen different ways. Here, I'll save everyone time reading the next post on this topic:
"Words, words, words Velayat 90. Blah, Blah, 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Blah, blah, blah, If, could, might...Huge $/bbl figure, and chess was invented in Persia."
About the only thing I've learned new about anything on this topic has been from the ZH commenters, as, quite basically, nothing has fucking happened except two bitchy little girls (Iran and the US) talking trash at each other like they are in a Jersey Shore bar.
That was pretty funny.
Catfights... mmmm.
But this catfight features a 500 pound barmaid used to throwing bad people out the door versus a starving scrawny motivated waif who will do anything to get rid of the rival, including burning down the bar.
Africa Investigates Fool's Gold
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYrPaJ4H1dc&feature=player_embedded
Coronal mass ejection hitting earth soon.
Flying mass of used toilet paper 8 miles wide on collision course with Earth directly from Uranus, film at eleven... That is fun, no cite, no proof, no linkie just toss er out there.
This is fun, I like it..
edited for excessive brevity..
Listening to all (except Ron Paul) the presidential hopefuls argue and posture over who's going to bomb Iran the hardest and quickest speaks volumes over who they're really trying to appease.
Iran has no role in the global economy, other then oil, and most of that oil should go to China if it isn't already. Since China is the 51th state, the state in which most of our manufacturing is done, the prudent thing to do would be leave the field, and let China and Iran work out their energy deals.
Let the Israeli's deal with Iran, it's really none of our business any longer, although the strategic thinkers are keen to deal with all of Central Asia as the same problem, that sort of thinking has never paid dividends. If Israel and Iran want to fight it out, we come in and clean, just as we did after WWII. Isolationism is a powerful foreign policy tool, but each POTUS thinks he has more military toys and than the previous guy, and a boy and his toys are not to be denied.
Speak for yourself.... I am partial to Saffron and hand-knotted rugs....
How do ya feel about large hookahs filled with Kif?
Doesn't have to be that large of a hookah....
Always the fault of America eh? And it is ever so helpful when Iran does what it did today, which is essentially claiming possession of the entire Persian Gulf as it's own territorial waters, at least in effect:
Iran threatens U.S. Navy as sanctions hit economy
By Parisa Hafezi
TEHRAN | Tue Jan 3, 2012 12:56pm EST
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran threatened on Tuesday to take action if the U.S. Navy moves an aircraft carrier into the Gulf, Tehran's most aggressive statement yet after weeks of saber-rattling as new U.S. and EU financial sanctions take a toll on its economy.
?http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/03/us-iran-usa-idUSTRE80208P20120103?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
?
Iran has responded to the tighter measures with belligerent rhetoric, spooking oil markets briefly when it announced last month it could prevent shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
It then held 10 days of naval exercises in the Gulf, test firing missiles that could hit U.S. bases in the Middle East. Tuesday's apparent threat to take action against the U.S. Navy in international waters takes the rhetoric to a new level.
Experts still say they do not expect Tehran to charge headlong into an act of war -- the U.S. Navy is overwhelmingly more powerful than Iran's sea forces -- but Iran is running out of diplomatic room to avert a confrontation.
?HSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHSHS
?The US navy will come and go from the Gulf as it has for decades and belligerent rhetoric (and actions) such as Iran has been turning up the volume on for several months now is proof enough of the threat to other nations in the region that rely upon the protection of US and NATO power to keep them from in effect being swallowed by Teheran and the evil nut bags running that god forsaken shithole of a country. I would be surprised to find anyone at ZH in favor of war with Iran, I do not want it either, but if/when it comes it will be Iran that will be the most damaged from it and perhaps that will lead at last to a popular uprising that replaces the assholes in charge with rational men that will stop trying to build atomic weapons of mass destruction and stop trying to wipe Israel from the map. If the current crop of Iranian "leaders" wants to build nuclear weapons then let them withdraw from the NNPT and the chips can fall as they may in my book, but as long as they are signatory to the treaty they will comply or face the consequences.
How dare iran defend/prepare itself and hold military exercises. you sound like that tight-assed guy in the end of Braveheart: "Bow down to your king."
Oh? OK, whatever. I have not watched a Mel Gibson movie since he came screaming out of the Catholic hate closet some 18 years ago so I wouldn't know or care what was said or done in one of his movies.
Iran will join the brotherhood of nations which can negotiate WITHOUT threatening it's neighbors or it will get the shit kicked out of it. That's all, I do not ask you to like it, but that is how it will be.
"I do not ask you to like it."
Certainly not to the degree that you will enjoy killing innocent women and children. I feel sorry for you!
"I do not ask you to like it."
Certainly not to the degree that you will enjoy killing innocent women and children. I fee sorry for you!
USN knows they mean business,
The USN underlings being fed on BS bravado and hopey-crappy still think they can easily survive a coordinated and concerted Iranian mission to actually sink and severely damage a large portion of the US fleet in the region.
TPTB and US Joint Chief's are not actually stupid. They know they will lose some ships, and bases will be hit, and terminals destroyed, and the strait will be closed.
They just figure they can take losing 50k marines and 40 odd ships getting it re-opened, with Iran smashed to rubble.
Timing is the key for Iran, and making sure Russians and China provide strong material and political backing, even as the western public and MSM go completely postal at having the oil supply completely cut, and even as the US makes it's initial and massive on-going counter-attacks, in a long-term regional war of strike attack, and IEDs for ships.
The Iranians know this huge battle is unavoidable at this point, so they're fully committed, and will try to maximise their impact and the advantages they have.
Warning USN carriers to stay out of the Gulf assures the US will steam in there.
Whether the Iranians will allow them out again is something that remains to be seen.
What I'm sure of is, Murphy's Law applies to the US anti-missile defence systems on those ships.
And the Iranians are going to make sure of that.
This is the handiwork of Zionist neo-con chickenhawk warmongers. Not a drop of American blood should be shed for these leeches or for their foreign interests.
The Persians read the papers. They have seen the quotes about bombing Iran.
I'll bet they teach the Gulf of Tonkin at the USNA. It will only be a short while longer and Obama will be before the nation. He is following Bush - step by step - WMD, here we go again.
Ahh, if only Robert McNamara could be here to see this one. No, no.... Al Haig.
Makes me want to puke.
Captains and higher in the U. S. Army are taught how to create false flag operations, not that our governemnt would ever consider such shenanigans.
ah, carry a big stick and use it!
Yeah...
A bunch of Yosemite Sam's running for mayor...
The next world war will be the Islamist against the Socialist. Which side will I choo choo choose?
LMAO, what a joke of a military listing Iran has in this article. I don't think a few glorified bass boats with 10,000 F15 fighters coming after them is going to work so well.
When Iran says it's easy to close Straits, that doesn't account for the 1000's of bombs the US is going to use to blast their convoy into oblivion.
I am more worried about other things, can they reach the other bases like they say? Will Hezbollah launch the 40,000 missles they claim to have at Israel? Will Russia sit and watch? Are people in the US going to be able to get to work on $10gallon gas?
Maybe it's just me but somehow I get a bad feeling that this war will end up more than the others in which you only hear about it once or so a month for about 5 seconds on the local news station. If someone major gets pulled into this and a few big nukes go off, even if we don't get hit the consequences could be huge.
Lord, im going for the Jager.
Oh and btw does all the NDAA, SOPA etc crap have something to do with what's coming out of all this? Maybe we won't have to worry about electing paul. Everyone said Bush might not allow another election. Well at that point in time they had a worthy replacement.
So Russian bombers penetrate our CADIZ and takes out Leesburg along with several other important civilian and economic targets.
We would not be much of a force when shivering in the cold this winter.
If we must fight, need to do it around spring time. Probably 20th of March.
I can shoot a russian bear down with my .50 cal, one shot, one kill and if not, I can always get the 20mm out. THere is 0 probability russian bombers make it over US Land before being vaporized by US Air though, but good luck.
I try to think of the worst that can happen.
We built our last raptor recently. Not even enough to go around.
Supersonic those Russian bombers can launch the special missiles that they have been working so hard on. Hell, they can crate em and stick em onto cargo boxes and none the wiser for a while.
If a bunch of Zealots with a fistful of razor blades used our own technology to attack and kill thousands, what then will the greater deliberate damage be from a Nation State who contemplates carefully a strike and executes it.
Let's get one thing strait ... er ... straight ... this is not US Territory we are talking about getting attacked this time.
We're talking about the Iranian equivalent of the US Great Lakes border with Canada.
This waterway fronts an Iranian border, not a US border.
If there is a strike against the USN the US 100% deserves it - and incited it.
If might is right (and all the shit coming from the US bravado-cult asserts it always is...) then Iranian might will make right, instead, and in the eyes of a whole lot of planet Earth's population no less.
Democracy writ large bitchez.
The reality is the USA (Israel's pet and killer) WANTS a war with Iran -- they want it bad.
And the whole world knows it - and see it plain as day.
The US is just relying on propaganda spin of a public sentiment backlash against Iran ... when the oil stops flowing.
That is the whole US play in a nutshell - get that bit right and you get a nice little world war for twenty years or so.
Iran's real challenge at this point is to not to allow the USSA to play the victim again, as it always does, when it's actually the war-mongering aggressor, who has zero real interest in peace and coexistence.
And to not the USA paint it as pariah and aggressor.
They just need to tell the truth, and be direct, objective and fully factual, and just keep telling it that way.
The USA and Washington never tells the truth with direct, objective fact -- and that was powerfully evident during Vietnam and Iraq.
And that is what everyone else in their heart of hearts on this planet already knows.
The US doesn't fuck around with Vietnam any more, in fact the US tends to avoid doing that as much as it possibly can.
Iran want's this same outcome, and it is prepared to pay the price and go to any lengths to get it.
And that means the US and NATO out.
And all of that that is something the Chinese and Russians will be up for, and can also use to great effect.
And that is why this is so dangerous.
Paranoid much?
There's a mint original G.I. Joe on ebay now that has your name on it buddy. Now strap on your airsoft body armour and get bidding.
Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slightly less well known is this: "Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!"
inconceivable!
Ben Bernanke and the Fed's plan of flooding the world with US dollars should help push oil over $200/barrel. Bernanke and the fed want higher prices for everything, they will get it.
Stuxnet has been a hoax engineered in Isntreal. Outside the Jew-controlled media's hologram, there was no credible indication that it actually disabled anything in Iran. Another hoax is the nuclear issue. Iran already has a deterrent against Isntreal in the form of its high-explosive, biological and chemical payloads delivered by missiles in nice 500 kg packages. Differently from Saddam's erratic Scuds, Iran's missiles will be shot in salvos to overwhelm any Patriot batteries that may be activated. The warmongers in Isntreal and Jewmerica will create an absurd casus belli around nukes that do not exist and whose existence cannot therefore be disproved, just like Saddams WMD.
The real issue is that Iran has already the deterrent, fair and square, and this poses a major problem for the continuity of the Zionist plan of theft and murder in Palestine. Israel cannot do a damn thing about Iran, and for this reason the Israeli agents in the upper echelons of American life will have to force the US to attack Iran. Once again the tape worm took over the brains of the host, and will lead it to its demise.
It is obvious by now that the nuclear blackmail against Europe and the US requires that the extremists in Israel be disarmed; and it is only a matter of time before it happens. The CIA says Israel is good for more 20 years in the hope it will collapse by itself. I think however the Samson Option lunatics will overplay their American card and end up, alas, on the boats back to Europe long before that.
Wall Street and the bankers intend on making a lot of money off another war. The taxpayers take on more debt and expend their lives for the privileged ones. You don't see the privileged ones sending their kids to war.
So the plan is to impose sanctions and threaten war, which will make oil go to $115 and make Iran even more important and powerful? Didn't anybody notice that nobody gave a shit about Ahmadinejad, Chavez, et al when oil was $60? Get out troops out of the Middle East and spend all the money you were going to spend there on alternative energy subsidies. Problem solved.
Idiot Green, Jerk-Paul, Obummer has-been Appeasers have dominated another thread. I commend those who blasted back. It is Ron Paul all of the time, ad nauseaum. Zerohedge, you have been infected, colonized by rabid malcontents who will be DEAD, if and when REALITY ever asserts itself.
You have all won the Darwin Award many times over with your statements. I can't wait until your award is CERTIFIED. If we make it to the next election, and you put Obummer back in, I will get my wish.
2012, Happy Armed-a-gadden! Let's get our war on!
Asshats need to stop. They won't.
We have narcicists and sociopaths in all of the drivers' seats. We got some ripe ole religious crap (Talmud, Koran, Bible, Myan tablets or whatever) all predicting all kinds of hell and destruction, some of them have scheduled their predictions for this year. These ass wipes are just getting down to the business of "their destiny."
Don't think that Iran could close Hormuz for long without nukes. They could release a lot of mines which would cause problems but not shut things down for too long. Smart-mines would be particularly troublesome.
But if they build a nuke which is small enough to fit on a missile, that would be a whole different ball game. They could launch 20 or 30 missiles against a carrier group, with only one missile containing the nuke. Some of the missiles would certainly be intercepted, but the nuke would probably get through.
Eventually Iran will have a nukes, probably with help from China.
And that is what it comes down to it eh? A fat American Carrier stuffed with 6000 of our best and brightest.
.exaggerating....
Anyhow, what do we do if we even lose one. We are not the same people that lost dozens in WW2 during a total war.
Certainly the people will cry out for a strike, the nuclear kind.
Not likely at all ... nuclear weapons are weapons of last-resort
Well ... unless you're George W Bush ... or an Israeli ... of some sort or other ...
Then they may also be the first-resort ... hey, definitions change ... whatareyagonnado?! ...
And that is why only a fuckwit would come up with a policy of pre-emptive nuclear attack.
Because it simply forces an opponent to do the same - only first.
But one thing that never changes
FASCISM! ... Fuck YEAH!
Go paul go
READERS FROM IOWA VOTED IN DRUDGE CAUCUSES:
PAUL 33.55%
SANTORUM 20.89%
ROMNEY 20.54%
GINGRICH 10.28%
PERRY 7.37%
If I was Ahmadinejad & visiting the USA I would feel most safest travelling with RP. Geez is it just me or is RP going to be the next JFK?
random thoughts
the usa should bay of pigs israel. tell them to take out iran then leave them hanging. they'll come running back to mommy whining and crying while 65 mil evangelicals will go on prayer watch for the second coming after cleaning out the local supply of bud light.
wal mart diplomacy will be employed by the chinese. if the usa or israel bombs iran china will cut off wal mart and millions of trailer trash usa citizens will have epileptic fits in the streets.
butchering cats to make chinese short ribs will become popular
it will be a great time to buy a cheap v8 suv or rv soon...again.
tsa will fondle all the hot women(and men depending upon gender preference) without complaint
the usa goes 19th century with wood burners, heavy indoor clothing and outdoor ice houses
ows will change their name to ouch(out u cocksucking halfwits) and arm themselves
i am gonna burn a fat one with a tumbler of glenlivet and finish with a cuban cigar.
We can go back to 19th Centruy easily enough, it would be a matter of fireproofing the house. It's not like we can just slap down 3 inch thick 15 inch wide planks on the floors and dowel em.
Woodcutting is something I am willing to do it's the bucking and hauling I hate. Ive the saw and the peavy. That would be of value.
Also knowledge. There are books in the library that details exact trade secrets as of the 40's where you can fabricate any number of necessary things including exlosive for blowing out stumps.
Obselete by today's standards and labor intensive. To each according his skillset and motivation and defend the sick, weak and old.
Ya we can do the 19th century thing. It would not be pleasant until the withdrawl pangs from modern living wears off.
Hunting will worry me. There would not be enough Deer in all the state to sustain 145 thousand people in Little Rock for a week if that.
We would have to sustain what the land can bear and force march the rest out.
Ron Paul ... is that YOU?
Iran is NOT Japan and never will be. Japan was a military force in all of SE Asia, the Philipines and the Chinese mainland long before Pearl Harbor. Iran is a figment of its own imagination.
China and Russia have completely different desires in Iran and the Middle East. China needs to maintain good relations with nations who can supply oil, and ideally at a reasonable cost. Russia, the world’s largest oil exporter, benefits from ME tension and higher oil prices. Neither nation, however, is going to risk Armageddon over Iran. They’ll rattle the sabres and probably provide support to the Iranian military or Iranian-backed terror efforts, but not confront the US directly.
On another matter, Pakistan and China have reached an agreement for China’s PLA to establish military bases throughout Pakistan, including in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (POK). Included in the bases is China’s naval facility being constructed at Gwadar. This is not sitting well with India, who already sees China to its east in the Chinese vassal state of Burma. Oh, and Shi’ite Iran might not take kindly to China supporting a Shi’ite-hating nation like Pakistan. (Polls among Pakistani citizens have them ranking Shi’ites as even more odious than Americans.)
I see ... and what makes them 'terrorists', embarked on "terror efforts", rather than combatants fighting a war, or resisting a murderous merciless invader?
And how is a western pilot bombing non-combatant villagers in their home, or at a wedding, or at the goat market, not just actual terrorism, pretending to be armed-combat between peers?
Enough of the 'terrorist' labels - we're not children.
Russian-made tanks/small arms and Chinese-supplied missiles sent to Iran -- bleed the USA with a thousand cuts -- who loses in this scenario? Certainly NOT Russia and China!
Also don't forget we are looking at Iran, which possibly sent human waves (Rumored to include children) into Iraqi defenses with the hope that the Iraqis will run out of ammunition and still get killed by the regulars coming in.
If that holds true to thier doctrine today, we are going to need every warship not on special detachment to help protect the carrier or carriers.
Classic.
Please an urgent question to Tyler and ZH folks. Vestas Wind Systems is a negative oil correlated stock on xetra. At this moment is losing a whopping 16.9%.
Is there a known reason for that? If the 200 $ oil story is plausible, could be VWS a good oil long play?