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Guest Post: Whack-A-Mole

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Since last Thursday, the government bailout rally trade has been on.  Last Thursday, the EU announced a new round of bailouts for themselves.  That sparked a rally, it also sparked lots of talk about S&P 1,400.  Lots of people I spoke to, were talking about the parallels to the end of June where stocks shot up 5% in the last week of trading.  The catalyst for the next move higher was 'obvious' to everyone, the debt ceiling limit would be raised and stocks would be off to the races.  Since then, every time the longs have popped up their heads, the market has found a reason to smack them down.

The European rally barely lasted 24 hours.  On Thursday SOVX gapped 35 bps tighter.  Friday morning, it had moved another 35 tighter, only to close unchanged on the day.  It is now only about 20 bps tighter than where it closed last Wednesday.  In the real world, Italian and Spanish bonds are back under pressure and close to their pre bailout level.  Maybe the bailout would work if the IIF had actually released any real details by now.  Maybe some details on what EFSF would actually do or could really hope to accomplish would also have helped, but the only thing that has come out on the EFSF is that some EU members, and finance ministers, are nervous about creating a piggy bank for the PIIGS.

In spite of some weakness in stocks on Monday and Tuesday, it was clear that investors were still betting on a relief rally from the debt ceiling crisis being resolved.  No one seemed to really believe that it wouldn't be resolved, and actually were happy to see markets weaker as it gave them a buying opportunity.  By Wednesday it was clear that everyone was either long or less short than they would like, but were still reluctant to do much about it because they just knew that Washington would come to the rescue.

Washington will ultimately come to some form of 'compromise' on the debt ceiling.  Just like last year when we kept the Bush tax cuts and created some new payroll tax cuts, the rest of the world will be left scratching their heads wondering how Washington defines compromise.  Will we still get the relief rally? 

That is the question we need to figure out now.  Any hype about whether or not we will get a solution is just hype.  Their will be a solution, but it will do nothing to appease the rating agencies, and more and more, will it do much to appease investors?  The European situation is clearly deteriorating again.  The realization that the headlines sounded good, but the actual benefits were less clear when analyzed closely, and that the plan is not easy to implement, is weighing on Europe.  The economic data, here, and in Europe has been mediocre, so that will make it harder to get a big spike in stocks after any solution.

Bernanke and the Fed have to re-evaluate the grade they gave to QE2.  How we have such a massive revision in Q1 GDP is hard for me to understand.  Seriously, we need to find a way to get better data, but with a 0.4% quarter right in the heart of QE2, it is clear it did nothing to help the real economy. And yes, it is getting old, but I will say it again, the market is not the economy.

I am now cutting all my short.  I had cut some coming into this week, as I was scared of the rally, but kept enough on that I can't complain too much.  I am flat and tempted to go long.  We've had a big move, and government resolution is likely to come, but it feels like that is a crowded trade.  No one seems really afraid, and everyone seems to expect a bounce.  Just because everyone expects it, doesn't make it wrong, but I'm concerned that all the longs will pop out of their holes the second a deal is announced.  They will look around for someone to panic and take them out of their positions on the debt ceiling news.  Then they will look some more, and then realize that no one is caught short or surprised and they will scurry to get out of their positions.  Well, I just convinced myself to go back to putting on a small short.                          

 

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Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:44 | 1504708 voshnishki
voshnishki's picture

The collapse has started. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:48 | 1504745 Biggvs
Biggvs's picture

Yep, I'll wager the "relief rally" will be small and then the pain can really get started. Until the Fed announces QE3, anyway.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:05 | 1504831 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I guess I am going to have to say the below all day.  My duty as I see it.

 

 

To: Tea Party members of the House:

Do.Not.Give.In.  Remember why we elected you.  Stop the spending, stop the cozy deals.  Stop the robbery of hte American people.  The ONLY way to right the ship (and it WILL be very painful) is to STOP the spending.  You know it, and we know it.

---

To: Valued Zero Hedge readers and commentators:

Buy.Gold.Now.  Tell you members of Congress: NO!  To a BAD deal.

 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:14 | 1504893 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I know I will be junked to oblivion for this: it would help if the Tea Party would have some coherent strategy and policy.

If there is any, I don't see it. I'd go so far to say that when it comes to foreign policy (don't tell me it's not important with USD 2'000 billions budget for defence related expenses - it's for "foreign matters") the Republicans never had any coherent policy that held longer then two years.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 12:09 | 1505182 Jena
Jena's picture

Herding the Tea Party is like herding cats.  Despite the best efforts of the Democrats and much of the media to categorize them, they aren't all Republicans.  They have no coherent policies or strategies because they have no real organization.  Many of the 'members' (and I use the term loosely) are new to politics, so aside from the Constitution, Declaration of Independence, Federalist Papers and other historical documents, they don't know how the political game is played and they don't seem to care.  Whether it's all a good thing or not -- at least this is a discussion that we wouldn't otherwise be having.  

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 13:39 | 1505635 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Tea Party members are not easily herded because, unlike their bought-and-paid-for Judas colleagues, they have not sold out to the Gangster Bankster Racketeers for 30 pieces of silver.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:50 | 1504757 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

indeed.

QE 2 ends with the dollar looking to breakthrough to all-time lows, inflation running rampant (6-9% per annum) and 10-year treasury yielding a meger 2.85%.

The American people are getting absolutely slaughtered!

Wish I could attend that primary dealer meeting today and bust open some heads

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:57 | 1504788 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Wish that Norwegian nutjob had picked this meeting instead of that daycare island.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:58 | 1504796 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Hot avatar. ;-)

9% Inflation this year, 7 years of this and all debt is halved. Sounds like a solution.

Makes me so sad that 1) this might be the "plan" and 2) how millions of people will have to suffer...

Take me with you to the meeting, I'll bring my trusty automatic...

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:55 | 1504784 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Sorry to disappoint you, but the relief rally will probably put the S&P over 1400 in 10 days.     

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:00 | 1504807 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

In case no one is paying attention there is a 12 point spread.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:48 | 1504741 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Biflation, bitchez! 

What else can explain economic contraction in the middle of rising costs?

Core PCE was the only data point that came in way above expectation. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:48 | 1504747 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

I think tuesday there will be a big rally. Till that time i better observe from outside.

Viva BDM ( Benya Da Men) or Ruller of the HP.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:49 | 1504750 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The stock market is too the economy. Bitchez

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:49 | 1504753 newstreet
newstreet's picture

Shock Doctrine.   How many times will we fall for this?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:49 | 1504754 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

Whats up with the XRT or XLY?  Nobody wants to sell retail stocks.  Everyone knows that the U.S. Consumer is unfazed from all this mess.

But the GDX?  Well, that's another story.......

Just a good old fashioned "selling panic" by overleveraged anarchists.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:57 | 1504792 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Equities are saying right now:

We have lift off.

 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:05 | 1504840 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Just the required gap fill.  Odd, seems to mostly happen on down days.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:50 | 1504758 malikai
malikai's picture

I've got some long shorts on. You know, the ones that go past the knees. Does this make me ready for the market?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:51 | 1504762 r101958
r101958's picture

The data is ok. It is what they do with it after they get it that is not ok.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:55 | 1504763 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

This Recovery Scam is bullshit.

 

The US media is behind the alleged fantasy recovery.

 

The BBC had a report on last night from a homeless shelter in the south, full of new homeless FROM THE MIDDLE CLASS!

 

They were all screaming there has never been any Recovery.

 

All The While the FAT SACKS, JPM & Wall Streeter MBA's are buying new $500,000 Lambourginis's ...

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:06 | 1504823 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

A serious question from outside the US: what is or was exactly the "middle class"? I'm typing this from a country where 60% of the households rent. Would you count them as "lower class" because of this?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:10 | 1504866 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

middle-class = working class with great capacity for self-delusion

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:20 | 1504871 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The American Middle Class does not have to worry each day about where they will sleep nor where their next meal comes from.

Plenty of the Middle Class here rents.  My definition is that most Europeans are my definition of the Middle Class.

But, the Middle Class is in danger from America's and Europe's "Less than AAA-rated Governments."

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:04 | 1504836 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Who wants a recovery these are "Happy Days" I have never made as much money and when there is no more to be had off to the philippines and live life to the full , Thankyou Ben,Tim Obummer 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:52 | 1504764 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I agree with one of his comments that this is a time to sit on your hands and wait and see what happens. I think a collapse or a sharp rally are equally likely.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:52 | 1504767 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Vacuum tubes are smoking

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:52 | 1504768 sabra1
sabra1's picture

time to start a war, like now maybe?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:53 | 1504770 FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

This is not a support of QE2.

This is a support of logic.

The author claims: " but with a 0.4% quarter right in the heart of QE2, it is clear it did nothing to help the real economy."

There is an unstated assumption in this poor conclusion that there wouldn't have been negative or zero growth without QE2.  In other words, if without QE2 we would have had -5% GDP, then clearly a 0.4% quarter would be considered a great QE2 success (by those in favor of fiat devaluation).

Point is, this is basic logic, and the author can't be taken seriously if he doesn't understand it.

Finally, when we will dispel the myth that a + GDP number, preferably above 3%, is somehow the only indication of a "healthy" economy?  One of the largest problems facing us is the misconception that yoy positive GDP growth should be the goal indefinitely.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:06 | 1504843 oogs66
oogs66's picture

jobs would be part of the 'real' economy, and qe2 did nothing for those

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 12:45 | 1505362 FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

You've made the same mistake as the author.

If there are 400k unemployed, that doesn't mean QE2 did nothing.  There may have been 600k without it.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:55 | 1504773 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Any news from Boaner? 

Sure looks like a Boaner relief-rally to me. Zzzzzz........

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:58 | 1504794 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

'Dumb money', er longs, blew all their cash dressing-up their portfolios at the end of the quarter in an effort to appeal to even 'dumber money', er sophisticated investors.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 10:58 | 1504795 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

Nice reversals in:

GLD

GS

MS

XLF

Looks like the crisis is over.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:01 | 1504812 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Yes, 7 off the world record high. You should be working on your apology to General Jim, momo. You will fold like a cheap suit when gold hits 1650. You must be puking up blood. LOL.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:03 | 1504824 espirit
espirit's picture

Go long NoBuTrader... on PPT volume?

You need a better gig than this.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:08 | 1504839 fuu
fuu's picture

00:00:30 attention span.

 

Is that a $1633.80 print I see? 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:07 | 1504845 BCTwelve
BCTwelve's picture

The question really becomes, which, and how much, of these do I short when I play the "Fade RT" trade

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:18 | 1504919 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

it's more art than science. for example. last week he was braying that the dow was heading for 15000. dow then went on a five day bender to the downside. a good guide is that the more boastful he becomes the closer you come to the big reversal. but seriously. he changes his tune from post to post. so never take anything the man says as indicative of what he believes. he doesn't trade contrary to his acronym. he is scared to death and owns just a couple of stocks. again, his words, not mine.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:09 | 1504865 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

an even nicer long reversal in your top call (december 2010 post) for 2011: std. from $13.75 to $10.30.

has you pair of pants arrived from gentleman jim sinclair? he hates to see a man wear skirts.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:00 | 1504805 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Middle class decimation will continue: the big game will just continune without you if you've been cut out. That's the plan 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:00 | 1504806 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Funny, NONE of the $Trillions War Spending is on the table...

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:02 | 1504815 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Why do you think? 

Too many big boyz making way too much money off that gravy train

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:00 | 1504808 sbenard
sbenard's picture

ES rallying off 200-day MA again.

 

Absolutely surreal!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:01 | 1504809 r101958
r101958's picture

Plunge Prevention Team is hard at work. Dow recovers about 90pts in last hour.....on what? Obama speech? Yaaaah....ok. My guess PPT and the market now expects QE3.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:09 | 1504862 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

That team is the dream team! Watch the government market close in the green today.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:00 | 1504810 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

QE3 will save the market, not the economy. 

More middle class decimation

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:29 | 1504981 Alasdair
Alasdair's picture

Excellent point.  Few know the difference.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:01 | 1504813 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

To: Tea Party members of the House:

Do.Not.Give.In.  Remember why we elected you.  Stop the spending, stop the cozy deals.  Stop the robbery of hte American people.  The ONLY way to right the ship (and it WILL be very painful) is to STOP the spending.  You know and we know it.

---

To: Valued Zero Hedge readers and commentators:

Buy.Gold.Now.  Tell you members of Congress: NO!  To a BAD deal.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:03 | 1504829 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

They ain't gonna stop private security firms in Iraq from making billions. And they ain't gonna stop billions going to make sure bankers can still wear Gucci. And they all own stock

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:07 | 1504853 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

It's all about pensions, 401ks, inflated housing and the fantasy idea "retirement" that they sold to the debt slaves.  They pillaged the whole system and now are trying to keep the curtain up to hide the fraud.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:03 | 1504820 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I figured out how to solve all of this mess.

 

Let all the politicians learn what it is to be in a "Jobless Recovery" by throwing them ALL out!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:04 | 1504832 magpie
magpie's picture

Hm, once again Obama calls the bottom. That's magic.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:08 | 1504854 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

He used the right keywords to signal to the algos that the debt ceiling deal is done.  The machines know and they're buying like crazy.

 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:11 | 1504876 fuu
fuu's picture

<-- News of no deal comes before 2pm EST

<-- News of no deal comes after 2pm EST

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:23 | 1504947 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Red because my guess is News of NO Deal after 2:00 PM ET.

NOW your gun may start coming in handy.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:33 | 1504998 fuu
fuu's picture

Too bad I pawned all my bullets for some of those Bonzai Chiquita Bucks.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 12:11 | 1505193 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That's what you get for monkeying around.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:06 | 1504844 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

As soon as this "Crisis" is over, the next one begins....only faster this time as the economy is in much worse shape. And people's patience (and savings) are wearing thin. And biflation will eat away at people's ability to afford their lives or to stay in business. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:11 | 1504874 oogs66
oogs66's picture

the 'next' crisis is underway.  europe is not getting any better.  the economy sucks...debt ceiling is only a small part of the problem, it just happens to be taking up all the headlines

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:07 | 1504850 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

in first place the selloff hasn't been deep enough to matter, so if you're thinking of doing a triple header into the shallow end of the pool, think again. Gold is getting killed compared to the way it should be performing. That's not good for equities... remember how the stock market used to rotate through various groups, during the bull market. it was all tied to the business cycle too, which made it an almost virtuous cycle. i mean you could almost believe it was real and not monetary legerdemain.

now in the deflationary reverse of the cycle we rotate OUT, first out of gold and into gadgets, like AAPL. then probably things related to the drop in the price of crude oil, while it goes down, and then things related to housing, while it goes down. and we miss the big picture, asset prices are going down. if you want to be a pro you have to identify the next thing to show false dawn in the economic recovery.

my guess is energy, so autos maybe. THEY will protect mortgage values as long as they can, but the Muslim Bro will sell all the oil they can for food and medicine. ( I wouldn't be surprised if we're secretly helping Qadaffi to prevent a takover by these guys, and guess the CIA is on the ground in Egypt finding the next despot - hey who wants to be a millionaire?)

Global deflation, its like trying to stop a bullet train with lightning.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:08 | 1504858 Wolf in the Wilds
Wolf in the Wilds's picture

And now we have the most idiotic markets.  Lower growth heading into recesssion and stocks bounce.  Treasury bonds rally when the risk of default and downgrade remains high.  There is no more logic in this world  The investors all believe the government will continue to spend and the Fed wil continue to print.  In the meantime, the common person suffers.  This is the world we live in today.  Why the hell did God give us brains?  Clearly we don't use them.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:13 | 1504887 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

This is cleary the intervention of the now famous PPT.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 12:00 | 1505140 r101958
r101958's picture

Yep! The same team most folks were denying existed 2 years ago.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:08 | 1504859 Wolf in the Wilds
Wolf in the Wilds's picture

And now we have the most idiotic markets.  Lower growth heading into recesssion and stocks bounce.  Treasury bonds rally when the risk of default and downgrade remains high.  There is no more logic in this world  The investors all believe the government will continue to spend and the Fed wil continue to print.  In the meantime, the common person suffers.  This is the world we live in today.  Why the hell did God give us brains?  Clearly we don't use them.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:10 | 1504873 Rollerball
Rollerball's picture

"Whack-A-Mole:  The Art of Self-Flagellation" would be more "literary".

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:12 | 1504879 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

"Seriously, we need to find a way to get better data"

When, as was pointed out on this site back in late 2010, government figures are revised downward 95% of the time and always, of course, after the positive effect on the market of the too-high figures has already occurred, one really needs to wonder if the methodology is intentionally skewed, just as the CPI methodology using substitution, hedonics and other BS cheats is so obviously skewed to reduce inflation-based COLA increases.

My conclusion: it's ALL bullshit since the entire game relies heavily upon the propagandized perceptions of a mostly ignorant populace.  And that goes for markets as well as for governance.  Since there's not a damned thing I can do about something that has been occurring probably since the dawn of man, I'll just sit back with some popcorn and watch the con men, both financial and governmental, rip off their, in too many cases, willfully ignorant marks.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 12:01 | 1505145 r101958
r101958's picture

Shadowstats.com

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:12 | 1504880 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

What I want to know is why ....everyday this week when the when the London Metals market closes (about 11am EST)....both silver and gold have gotten walloped...I mean it is uncanny ....look at the charts the last 3 days.

You would THINK (I know that word does not apply to "investors" much these days...who operate mostly on fear and rumor) that this ridiculous bullshit and uncertainty that is being orchestrated in D.C. would levitate BOTH of the PM's - and any other Safe haven asset to new highs....non-stop.

 

But instead...the dollar is holding it's own...treasuries are doing just fine...and everyone is expectig that a deal will be passed....and that we can continue on with our disgusting way of living.

I also liked how for MONTHS now, Timmah had been saying that August 2nd was the drop-deap date for default...but starting last week, when it started to look like these fucktards in DC would not get anyting done in time for the 2nd...they started little rumblings saying that "well...we may actually have a little longer than the 2nd....hahahaha  how fucking pathetically predictible!! 

 

Does ANYONE really believe this whole thing is not planned...by BOTH the Dems and the GOP?  The end goal is to milk even more from the working class...and allow corporations and the top1% to contribute NOTHING (as usual)

But, Americans are too goddamn stupid to realize what has been going on - the last week...and for the last 30 years to care...or ever do anything about it...

This whole "crisis" bullshit falls right into line with the "Shock Doctrine".  They create a crisis...under which they then have the cover to do things that normally would cause people to burn the capital to the ground.  This has been done more and more frequetnly over the last 10 years than at any point in U.S. History....I guess they know it works...so they keep using this tactic.   My question is...when are they gonna go back to that well one too many times?  When are the people going to wake up and realize that the real crisis is a crisis of leadership and the continual theft of both public and private wealth by the top 10%?   

I mean goddam people...I cannot believe how much bullshit your typical idiot out here will believe and put up with....most won't even realize they have been fucked over (hard) until they wake up one day hungry, naked and homeless....and then when they realize some disgusting rich motherfucker has all hs shit will ask themselves....how did this happen?   It is inevitable.

 

Sorry to ramble...just pissed and disgusted

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 13:21 | 1505536 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

AAPL has outperformed Gold by 10% the last month. Think these guys know something? Obama gave a dinner for campaign donors in Manhattan. Do you suppose they discussed ways to extend the crisis and create some buying opportunities? In the end he invokes the 14th, calls himself the Unitary President, and the American people all bow down in respect. Maybe not that last part.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 11:19 | 1504928 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

tempted to go long? wtf are you smokeing?

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 12:40 | 1505340 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

The Bernank sees QE2 as a huge success. Although the economy suffered, the Bankers received record high Bonuses....again, and the financial system is "recovering."

Some see that as a "success"...depends on your perspective. Beats me.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 21:41 | 1507034 wwwmm
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