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Guest Post: What’s A Young Person Supposed To Do?
Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man
What’s A Young Person Supposed To Do?
I can’t begin to describe how excited I am to be visiting Tokyo while the Japanese yen is at its all-time, historic high. My timing couldn’t possibly be worse.
For reasons that are completely incomprehensible, the yen is still viewed as a stable ‘safe haven’ currency despite four completely hopeless black marks:
1) Japan’s public debt puts other bankrupt nations to shame. As a percentage of GDP (225%), Japan’s debt is more than twice as bad as the United States.
2) The political situation in Japan is anything BUT stable. Japan has blown through 6 prime ministers and 9 finance ministers since 2006. And every one of them was a failure.
3) Social demographics are a ticking time bomb. Both life expectancy AND average age in Japan are higher than just about anywhere else on the planet… and the country has neither the work force nor the financial resources to support the massive waves of retirees that are coming.
4) Oh yeah, Japan’s economy hasn’t actually grown in two decades. No biggie.
Despite these obvious headwinds, though, the market is telling us that Japan is the safe place to be right now. And as a result, prices here are just plain stupid.
I’ll have more to report on this next week, plus a boots on the ground perspective of what’s going on in Fukishima. Hopefully I won’t grow a sixth finger.
And without further ado, let’s move on to this week’s questions.
First, Elle asks, “Simon, I am a female senior in high school and am trying to figure out what to do next year. Since the future of America is unstable, what would you do if you were in my shoes?”
Young people in bankrupt western nations do not have a particularly bright future. To put it bluntly, society is going to force-feed you a shit sandwich. Higher taxes, more debt, fewer prospects, and a much lower standard of living await you. That’s if you stick around.
You probably won’t be surprised to hear me say this, but I think that young people ought to consider getting out of dodge. The world is a big place and it’s full of opportunities. Following the old way of ‘study hard, go to a good school, get a great job, and work your way up the ladder’ is completely dead.
Success today, whether it’s in a job or owning a business, is all about creating value– what can you do that’s so valuable to someone else that they’re actually willing to pay you for it?
When you’re in a developed country surrounded by hundreds of millions of people who share similar skills, it can be a bit competitive to do this. But if you take off for a developing country, you might be the only person in town who can do a number of things that might seem like second nature to you.
The great thing about being young is that you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. It’s the only time in your life that you won’t be saddled with other responsibilities.
As for WHERE to go? Part of it is a lifestyle choice… where do you want to be? But most of all, look where the growth is. Asia, Africa, Latin America. You’ll find a happy medium that strikes a balance between growth opportunities and your personal desires.
I wrote about Mongolia last week, there are fortunes to be made there. If you’re a real wild man, try South Sudan… they’ve been a country for all of three months. If you want a steady job and work experience, try China or Singapore.
Most of all, just expand your horizons and start to consider possibilities all over the world. Ignore your friends and family, they’ll just try to talk you out of it. And then, in a few years’ time when you’re wildly successful, they’ll pretend like they supported you all along.
Next, Raoul asks, “Simon, what do you think of these stability plans in Europe? It seems like things are starting to calm down a little bit.”
Such is the sorry state of the global financial system… the market rallies when it is decided that Greece will default on ‘only’ 50% of its obligations.
Unfortunately, this doesn’t really fix anything.
Greece is still losing money hand over fist like a drunken playboy at the craps table. Even if the government didn’t have to pay a cent in interest, the budget is still down billions of euros, month in, month out.
As we discussed yesterday, this is nothing new. Greece has been in this position five other times in the past two centuries. This tactic is called ‘selective default’, and it doesn’t work in the long-term because the structural problems still remain. Eventually, they’ll bring out the economic torture devices.
Stefan Homburg, one of Germany’s few contrarian economists, recently summed this up to the German paper Sueddeutsche:
“History shows that [bankrupt governments] take radical measures such as expropriation of private assets, wealth taxes, or banning gold ownership… and in a state of emergency, basic rights are suspended.”
This quote succinctly articulates why international diversification is so important.
Next, Dr. Lynch asks, “Simon, I have Italian grandparents. Do I have a chance to obtain a passport? If so, do you have a contact recommendation like you had for the fellow seeking a Polish passport?”
Citizenship by ancestry is the best, fastest, and cheapest way to obtain another passport. Italy is one of the countries that allows this, and if you have Italian ancestors, I’d suggest getting started here.
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I think Japan has done pretty well considering it has no natural resources and lost two of its biggest domestic power sourses over the last few years - but one of these is slowly coming back on line.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashiwazaki-Kariwa_Nuclear_Power_Plant
it produces almost the power output of the entire British nuclear power industry when fully operational
And the economy has grown very slowly over the past 20 years - maybe thats the only sustainable manner of development.
If it had a lower fiscal debt the commercial banks would just have produced net negative credit anyway - and there has been no real "growth" in the west for 20 years at least.
A simple Jap saver has done pretty well over the last 20 years despite low interest rates - although Robert Zollick & the lads in the world bank have managed to break up their post office so that the sharks can feed off the jap little fishes.
A malinvestment episode awaits me thinks as these Sharks can game wealth out of little hands with expert execution.
Lets forget fucked up economists, their theories about inflation and so on.When we look at the nation growth we take in consideration population growth and improvement in efficiency of their economy over time. In normal world GDP supposed to grow at the rate of population growth + improvement in efficiency. If you do much better than that that means you're stealing from others.
Lets say efficiency growth is about .5%, personally I think it's very high estimate, we can have at some point of time some technological evolution (to push that rate higher) but it's not likely right now.
So Japan population is growing at -0.1% so their GDP should grow at the rate of 0.4% the most, and in the next few years should go down because the population will decline rapidly. Of course everybody can use their accounting rules to show that they're growing much faster but it's all bullshit. Japan is doing fine. Can you imagine how they will grow their standard of living in next few years when the old generation will slowly disappear.
Refer to richard koos 2011 presentation - starts at 18 minutes
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWGDWYB5KZ0
Their non leveraged fiscal spending had a 4 to 1 wealth effect while the credit of the 80s was net negative.
During the bust they lost 3 times as much wealth as America did during the great depression on a relative GDP basis !!!!
Its the credit pushers - they are a pox.
Every time we recover and produce a surplus they move in and extract / farm us.
http://mises.org/daily/5170
...In normal world GDP supposed to grow at the rate of population growth + improvement in efficiency. If you do much better than that that means you're stealing from others.
Or believing government statistics.
Funny how being nuked before will keep you in line.
Kids and the internet...what could go wrong?
"Why. these Japanese are SO clever! They make excellent cameras, and tape recorders, and art pottery! And they eat RAW fish for breakfast! Who'd a thunk it????" - Simon Black
I think this is a TD roman-a-clef thing. Meta-comedy.
Yeah, the 'Move to Sudan' advice kinda made me say "Hmmm". But you can watch the Genocide from the comfort of your front porch -- so there's that.
There's a considerable number of Sudanese refugees in my area. Despite the lousy weather, lousy housing, and lousy job market, they are all super-psyched to be here, not there. And, the ones just off the plane, for a good several months, are always cringing slightly, like they expect a sudden blow to the head at any time. After a few months in the USA, they're standing tall, chatting on cell phones, and wearing Red Sox hats.
According to a BusinessWeek article from 2000 Japan, a Nation of Risk-Takers? (int’l edition)
“Seniors aged 60 years and over own about 70% of Japan’s $11 trillion in household financial assets. Only 9% of that is directly invested in stocks and a mere 2% in mutual funds.”
Eleven years later should mean that Japanese 71 and over hold 70% of $11 trillion or $7.7 trillion in household financial assets. As these individuals pass away, a significant amount is likely to be passed down to heirs. Japan has an inheritance tax that ranges from 10% to 50%; perhaps the Japanese government will realize a tax windfall from the inevitable.
It seems unlikely that elderly Japanese will start cashing out their savings and increasing their spending as the inevitable approaches.
Since much of this savings is held in the form of Japanese government debt, inheritance taxes might reduce the country’s total government debt level.
it's your decision, young lady
welcome to "legal majority" aka adult-hood
the hood is where learn from our mistakes, so i think it is great that you are asking around for opinions. simon is giving you his book, which is based on aknowledging the current idea of "nation" and the verious frailties and dangers involved in current national "ecvonomic and political systems." he is concerned that your family & friends will be against this, so (paste): "Ignore your friends and family, they’ll just try to talk you out of it."
i wouldn't say ignore them, but rather don't be constantly presenting them w/ a "problem" b/c it is your problem, and no matter where you go or what you do, if you want to be an independent adult, you must be able to care for your basic needs, usually by employment or some kind of work
being and becoming the person you want to be is a personal thing, and even thoght it is more and more difficult to get get started and get along in the middle-class way, it is not impossible. however, being middle-class is not a requirement of independent personhood, again, no matter where you go, globally, no matter what you do
so, hopefully, we're all free to be ourselves, and it isn't always a party, no matter who you BE
For reasons that are completely incomprehensible, the yen is still viewed as a stable ‘safe haven’ currency ...
Two words: Trade surplus.
Global groupthink and too much money in a very few hands is why the Yen has not cratered yet. But it will. The saddest part of hyperinflation when the money is in a very few hands is that it creates distortions in every direction instead of just rising prices.
If the Yen were collapsing now, everyone would know for sure why. The entire country is a nuclear wasteland which can export nothing safe and make nothing safe to eat. You'd know it. But because the Yen is being wiggled by global shockwaves, recession as a strategy reinforced by disaster, and momos, it is going counter reality. It will probably even spike before it collapses. But it will collapse.
Just for the record....I'd like to state that Reggie Middleton has chunks in his stool that have more intelligence than Simon Black has put on display here.
South Fucking Sudan....vice North Sudan....that place is dangerous!
Brilliant....
Obviously SB is the 'tard alterego of one of the Tylers....comic relief thought up during a tequila & blow party in the Hamptons one evening....
The joke is on anyone who takes said 'tard seriously.
get thyself to Skills-ville.
As regards Japan I think that people should keep in mind that government bonds and accumulating money on bank accounts is some kind of Japanese equivalent to generous government pensions or American 401(k) pensions.
But perhaps growth in Japan would have been better if people had invested more in stock rather than government bonds which the government has used for building infrastructure which the Japanese society doesn´t really need. Perhaps the Japanese politicians should have introduced some kind of tax incentives for investments in stock? Why not invest in emerging economies in Asia rather than bridges which Japan doesn´t really need? If people save enough and invest their money wisely demographics is no big problem. I think that Japan has made a mistake in this respect. They seem to have a management problem in politics which to some extent resembles the management problem in traditional zaibatsu/keirutsu companies like Mitsubishi Motors in the past. They are reluctant to address problems which no senior leader has pointed to while the senior leader does not understand the problem or doesn´t care. It´s a pity that Japan which, as far as I know, has no domestic media or lobby organizations that make politicians choose destructive strategies for long-term political power reasons, has allocated people´s savings to unprofitable infrastructure investments.
Furthermore, I doubt that Japan needs more labour since they still have an unemployment problem. If they can reduce the costs that follow from unemployment when people retire they don´t gain anything by increasing the supply of labour and thereby also the unemployment.
I think the internet analyzed them better wjhat did they say.
Damn Japan! You Scary!!!
Yea go work in the world and experience things but don’t ever fool yourself into thinking that you can forever make a real future life for you and your descendant in other than a few western countries. Because anyone can be an American, lots of Americans have the foolish though that the rest of the world works this way too.
The truth is anyone can become an American regardless of race or religion. There are a few other places in the world where this can happen, Canada, Australia, some South American Countries, some in Europe. Yea move to China and or Southern Sudan. Unless you are the same race as them you will never be able to integrate then someday in the middle of the night when things are bad your neighbors will come for you to clean out the foreigners/outsiders. Hindus killing Muslims in India, Muslims killing Christians and Jews in the Middle East, Turks killing Armenians, Chinese have a history of blaming and then attacking outsiders. Hell they won’t even help a 2 year old run over in the street. Japan, really, look how they handle the Koreans who have lived there for over a century.
the muslims in India are the ones that instigate. Hindus usually just retaliate
If Japan were to uncensore their porn, that would create jobs!
Yes all you youngsters should ignore your family and move to Mongolia and start a business.
Indiana Black is a moron.
South Sudan? Really?? Do you have any idea of the average life expectancy in South Sudan??
Yes but, the stuff they build is top quality. They survived what was probably the worst natural/man made disaster in history, with continued social cohesion.
No riots, no looting...just quiet organized clean up.
DAMN! Can I move there?
Blog from Japan, according to this blog short Japan, not the market the whole country.
http://fukushima-diary.com/
They got strontium in the ground water.
Bone cancer, blood disorders. You're bone marrow does your heme synthesis cycle wich renews your red blood cells every 14 days. It's the most active human process with skin cell replacement a close 2nd.
Strontium will build up in their teeth and bones and when it builds up enough they will need first blood transfusion and then bone marrow transplants.
You should be hearing all the blood drivers in every country putting up massive commercials. But japan is mostly type A blood and some B. America is only 40 percent type A.
His list of possible countries can only be a joke.
You cannot permanently go to China as a westerner, even if you marry a Chinese woman (and good luck if you're a western woman) - unless you continuously bribe enough key bureaucrats. And if you're into bribing there are a lot of SE Asia or Middle/South American countries where you get more bang for the buck.
Singapore is okay if you don't mind a police state feel to keep everything neat and tidy, Switzerland is a little less extreme version of the same.
Hey Simple Simon, why didn't you tell her to go to Nirvana (ie Chile). They have their own volcano and failing electrical grid, but I understand its a real prime location for dumbshits who think its a great place to escape any calamity and they're real suckers just waiting to be taken by the next big thing.
At some point the Japanese economy will blow up like Fukushima. The sooner, the better.
Team America, Fuck Yeah!
Americans are so unbelievably blinded by all the "we're number one" BS. I bet most of the posters here have never even been outside the US. And if they have, they didn't even understand WTF was going on since Americans can't speak any foreign languages.
There are plenty of great countries out there, I should know, I moved to Australia from the US when Bush was reappointed in 2005. Best thing I ever did. If you can find them on a map, I would also suggest having a look at Canada, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Holland, France, Germany, closer to home Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Chile, Argentina. Asia is trickier because immigrating is difficult but Singapore, New Zealand, Australia come to mind.
I get great college for my kids, $1200/year, incredible health care for 20% what it costs in the US, guaranteed retirement plus self-directed funds from employers, a functioning banking system that hasn't turned into a giant casino, actual labor laws that protect my rights as a worker, 5 weeks paid vacation...not to mention clean air, clean water. Downside is high housing costs...but that also means our house isn't worth 70% of what we paid for it like in the US.
Sorry guys, US is 24th in social mobility, somewhere near last place in science education, last place in affordable health care...and you have to listen to flat earther politicians cooking up even more schemes to transfer wealth to billionaires and force feeding them to poor working stiffs via Rush Limbaugh and Fox. Not to mention travelling the world where people hate you (yes it's true) because of all the military bullying, lecturing, and lobbing missiles all over the place.
America's a great place if you're a corporation (which are now people, too) and I'll continue to invest in them, some of the best brands and companies the world will ever see. But they sucked all the money from the people themselves...and it sucks to be a person there.
No thanks.
Don't biatch at me, tell me how I can get a mining job down under??
Get some training in heavy duty diesel mechanics, get a nice-looking certificate, and show up. They will take you I guarantee it. $200-300k+ per year but you have to live way out in the outback. Adventure time.
As the US goes, so will Australia. Your housing is in a bubble. Your banksters are crooks also. Your politicians, ditto. I think the country is beautiful (I really do, the people charming as all get out, their ordinary politeness took my breath away), but watching your news sent icy chills through my veins. Saw a news caster apologizing for saying the wrong thing against a politician. Very quietly, very scared. That society is more totalized than the US, the media even more corrupt. And the way their culture slavishly tries to imulate all things US/Briton (Give Way instead of Yield? All those brands that have the same colors and shapes in the logos, but have different names? The shows have all the same formats and sets as US shows), well, it all sort of feels like a strip mall if you are not in the really old cool parts. It is my impression you are just comfortable with how the subjugation is unfolding, for now. I made these observations to some of my friends, that there was no dissent, and they said that except for the Aborigines, everyone was pretty happy. Meanwhile, we spent a lot of time on our particular project making sure that government officials would not be unhappy with us. When I pointed this out, I got blank stares. This is what you had to do to keep your happiness. Again, I loved being there, but I was glad to get back to the US. Creepy Stepford western reality.
There is nowhere to run, anymore.
The only peace is found inside ones self.
Dear One,
Maybe this is the same as it ever was?
At least the elite in Brave New World left Coventry for people who wanted to be individuals.
Exactly, Madame. Exactly.
You nailed it, MsC. When the time comes for the muster, both flocks of sheep are in for a massive shock!
Stockholm Syndrome is a bizarre affliction.
Green arrow up, except it does not work with a quote featured first.
Stockholm Syndrome is right on the money. You invest everything (heart, mind, money, soul) in order to stay alive. Stick to the story, contemplate nothing else. I would think moving is a huge investment, spiritually and emotionally. I did not mean to be rude, just to the point.
Sorry, this is rubbish. The government is called on the carpet every single day on live radio to get attacked in detail about policy, and they have to respond, live. Compare that to the ridiculous soundbites you get in the US. "Icy chills" from watching the media? Um...I have a channel for you to tune into, one that CONTROLS politics across the US, defines the narrative, lies as a matter of daily policy, creates and destroys people and politicians every day of the week...it's called FOX. Yep, a great Australian import to the US.
Stepford? Ha! Try Orange County Cal or Greenwich Conn for Stepford. These people here are more real than any friggin Jerseylicious/Survivor/Pimp My Ride character you'd ever want to see.
So the signs are supposed to say "Yield" (American) instead of "Give Way" (British)? Let's see, this country was colonized by...um... oh yeah the British.
Uninformed.
What’s A Young Person Supposed To Do?
Pick your parents wisely. Make sure you are born to 1%'ers. If you are already here and it is too late for that then marry well. If all else fails try buying a Powerball ticket because if you can't inherit it or marry it your best shot at wealth and thus security and freedom is the lottery.
(obviously somebody does not appreciate sarcasm, or it is LVD just going down the list of posters junking everyone again)
P.S. What is wrong with the site today, every time I have hit post or edit I had to close the internet using the alt-ctrl-del to close the frozen window, and it is only ZH doing this.
What Japan doesn't have:
Tens of millions of illegal aliens.
Vast obesity problems along with a host of other medical maladies.
A huge population of deadbeat welfare recipients.
A huge foreign debt.
A military sucking the life out of the country.
Citizens clamoring for more handouts.
A dying industrial base.
you forgot to mention:
Children.
Add:
Feminism
'Simon Black' is it?
This post is written like some high flying fucktard on the show Entourage.
I have an idea – YOU move to South Sudan and then come and give us all a report 6 months from now.
I second that. His post is written like some old high flying salesman who wants to be a capitalist.
DAX monthly chart at blog shows recent bullish candle revealing aggressive short covering rally enclosed within big picture bearish pattern.
Bullish USD weekly/monthly and bearish SP500/DOW monthly charts will eventually ensure a reversal of the equity uptrend and a significant dollar rally.
Guaranteed.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
You're right. Only a 5th wave to go, before the A-B-C correction, and then the USD will roar, while gold declines to 1300.
Please post a scan of your passport stamps.
If you can't do that, at least put on some clothes, get out of the basement and do something real
Most of these so-called "posts" re: this article are right-wing, ill-educated, - including their ability to spell -, i.e. phD. The correct abbreviation is PhD. I have one as does my husband. Didn't you "poster's" study SAE at your private schools? I am encouraging my children to leave this country and to move abroad ( My uncle, Jim Rogers, is advocating that they do this, too). If you haven't enough brains to change with the economy tanking, pour vous bon chance. Play the blame game all you want, trust fund babies that you sound like, but my family lives in and plans for the REAL WORLD which takes CRITICAL THINKING SKILLS - see Sociology 101 - as the true measure of intelligence. You can blame politicians all you want, but the current state of economic affairs in the USA is YOUR OWN FAULT! You keep these morons in office, because you're afraid of real change. All I have left to say is "JUMP, FUCKERS, JUMP!
Finally the truth, madame. Merci and bonne chance!
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