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Guest Post: What's Your Favorite "On the Ground" Recession Indicator?
Submitted by Charles High Smith from Of Two Minds
What's Your Favorite "On the Ground" Recession Indicator?
Beautifully maintained trophy cars are being dumped for cash. What does that say about the "real" economy?
Everybody has their own "on the ground" recession indicators: the mall parking lot, the tony restaurant that used to be packed every weekend, and so on.
I have two favorites: freight trains rumbling south down the main line of the West Coast and "sell your own car" used car lots.
The freight trains are self-explanatory: at the top of the housing bubble, they were loaded with flatcars of lumber. Now? A lot of empty flatcars and container flats. A lot. Yes, the official statistics indicate rising rail traffic, but they must mean one more car has a load in a 100-car train and there's only 20 empties. The freight trains I see are still running with beaucoup empty cars.
There may be some explanation of why this is so, but I can report that these trains pulled no empties in 2007.
"Sell your own car" lots reflect the "private market" for used cars. If you want to know what people are trading in for new cars, then go look at new car dealers' used lots. At the local Honda dealer, I saw a number of Lexus SUVs on their used lot; people trading down to save on gasoline?
I've sold a few cars myself at the local "sell your own car" lot, so I know it's reputable and a model that works for buyers and sellers. For a flat fee, you park your car on their lot and price it however you want. Potential buyers get to test-drive it, take it to their mechanic, etc. It's a big lot, so the selection of cars and prices is suggestive of larger trends--at least to me.
Back in 2009 at the initial depths of the recession, the used Toyotas and Hondas vanished and the lot filled with Volvos and other big-car-payment brands. I took this to reflect people were ditching their car payments and snapping up older reliable cars they could buy for cash and get another 100,000 miles out of.
I hadn't been by the lot in a while and what I saw astonished me. The lot was packed with "fun" cars and luxury brands: four recent-vintage Cooper-Minis were lined up (none sold in the week I monitored the lot). A cute yellow VW Beetle--another "fun" car-- was over by the Mercedes. Yes, Mercedes, and Porsches, all beautfully maintained.
For the first time in the two decades I've scanned this lot, it was chockful of luxury cars: a pristine black 2002 Porsche Boxter with low mileage that raised my blood pressure and sorely tempted me because it was "priced to sell"--and for a Scots-Irish-French tightwad, that's saying something; an equally beautiful Mercedes 500-series two seater, low mileage, brand-new in appearance; a fairly decent Jaguar; another pristine 300-series Mercedes, a classic, unbelievably well-maintained Porsche 911 (1991)-- the list goes on.
In the good old days, these "still look new" luxury cars would have been snapped up at these prices. But now they sit here, unsold, day after day.
Another class of "fun" car was also represented--the muscle car: a very clean recent vintage red Trans Am attracted onlookers in one corner of the lot.
Sellers can add comments to the sales tag, and on at least two of the luxury vehicles it was noted that the car had been their father's, one owner. Others indicated the original owner was selling.
If you know some car buffs, or you are one, then you know what these low-mileage super-clean luxury cars represent: they represent the lifetime achievement car for a guy, or the trophy car the rising exec takes out on the weekend. There is no other explanation for a 10-year old car to have 17,000 miles, or 33,000 miles--they were all garaged and enjoyed as a third or fourth car.
It seems Dad is getting too old to drive, or it's no longer feasible to ease into the low-slung Porsche, and so he's given it to one of his kids. And the kid drove it to the lot to turn into cold hard cash.
As for the "fun" cars: maybe they're still selling big numbers of new vehicles, but the glow of owning a mediocre-mileage car with no room for the dog or kids seems to be fading for existing owners. My sister-in-law spent a fortune having her Mini Cooper fixed last year, and our friend with a cutsy VW Beetle had a repair bill after a few years of ownership that could have bought a decent used car instead.
For whatever reason, "fun" cars that I never saw on the lot before are now there in abundance.
This is all anecdotal, of course, and wide open to interpretation. If you go to the techie-hipster favored neighborhoods in San Francisco, the tony cafes and restaurants are crowded: there's plenty of Web 2.0 money floating around. If you only look at these concentrations of talent and free-flowing investment capital, the economy looks like it's booming. Ditto if you try to book a table near the Opera on performance night: there's plenty of old money around that can spend $100 per dinner, too.
Once again, there were no older Toyotas or Hondas on the lot, only a few 2-year old models asking near-new prices. I interpret this thusly: older reliable cars that will last another five years without major expense are snapped up immediately, and superfluous "fun" cars and luxury trophy vehicles are being turned into cash.
When people are driving their pride and joy cars out of their pampered garages and selling them for cash, not trading them in for a new car or keeping them for pleasure, I think that's saying something about the "real" economy you won't find if you hang around Twitter HQ or the bejeweled Opera crowd.
You may intepret it differently, of course. That's the beauty of "on the ground" recession indicators.
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I know, I got coffee in my nose when I read that line, "probably worse than toxic waste but she loves it!" For an attorney that dog owner is a real "OH WELL" type of low key guy.
Dog food stamps ya'all.
$11 and change for a 16 lb bag of Dad's to feed the strays out back. Produced in Meadville, PA with local ingredients, no Chinese toxins.
CrockettAlmanac.com
Lot's of filler though. More filler more shit.
I used to feed Dads, smaller yard less rom for shit.
(4 Reviews) 4 out of 4(100%)customers would recommend this product to a friend.
http://reviews.tractorsupply.com/0519/249009999/dads-special-mix-cat-food-16-lbs-reviews/reviews.htm
How does it taste? I mean- is it edible...?
Timmy, Tommy, Squint and Not Squint (not their real names) gobble it up. These are kittens that wintered in a neighboring backyard. I took in their sister when she got trapped in my coal cellar wall and I had to pull part of it down to rescue her. Today is the last day of three squares for the outsiders. Then three weeks of once a day meals while they train for predator status. First day of spring they are on their own.
I prefer it over noodles with sour cream.
Do you feel a little Ken Queasy afterwards?
Wal-Mart opened a new store in the town north of mine. Target is hiring. Toys Are Us opened a new store. Who has money to spend on toys? I never go anywhere except Target, the gas station, and Starbucks. Starbucks is very busy and has so many employees that it's crowded behind the counter. They are all adults aged 30 and up. At least one of the women has children, which I take as an indicater that the pay is not too bad. Starbucks also upgraded its computer system to enable it to print drink idenfication stickers. The employees stick them on the cups to keep track of the drinks. Before the upgrade they had to memorize everything. Fox Business recently pointed out that Starbucks stock had increased 8% over the last year. From the street view the company appears to be doing well. A lot of the patrons are busy with their computers, reading the paper or socializing. It's inexpensive relaxation and entertainment.
I bought a black and decker highly rated espresso/cappuccino maker for $50 bucks on sale and a coffee grinder. In less time that you wait in line at starbucks you have your own great morning beverage.
If you're in CA, you have to have a car seat for every kid until they're 16, so you have to have a bigger car or minivan, unless your an illegal, then they ride in the back of the pickup (but the dog can't).
Let's see, 60 month leases, 60 month financing. When was 60 months ago? Oh, February 2007. Everyone was rich then.
Car seat up until the day they get their license? LOL
that's hyperbole, but it's pretty old by other state's standards.
They don't call it the "Nanny State" for nothing.........
My early years were in California, 63-81. Back then you could still legally ride in the back of a pickup and cram as many kids in the back of a station wagon as could physically fit. Hmm, funny I guess I should be dead or at least crippled with all the dangerous traveling lol. Had an old Yamaha 80 that I road to school too, and guess what? No helmet...heh.
In 1968 we had a new Pontiac Bonneville (always in the shop) and a 1964 Corvair Dad used to go to work in, my stepmom decided to take us (6 of us kids) and the neighbor kids up to the redwoods for a picnic and we had to use the Corviar 4 seater. We had 13 of us in that little car, so many that it would not get all the way up Crescent Hill, it just went slower and slower until it was hardly moving with the gas pedal all the way depressed, and we had to turn around and go to Baskin Robbins for floats. The Mormon kids got Sundays because they could not drink root beer. What a scam that cult is. Can you imagine the carnage if we had been hit by a logging truck? Woman and 13 kids killed in wreck on Crescent Hill. It is a miracle I am here to relate.
When there is a high correlation in the movement among several asset classes look out below.
The larger the movement, the larger the incoming crash.
The longer it takes time to take a shit, the bigger shit it will be.
Recession Indicator - no new babies born around my friends
guns at the gun shows don't seem to be slowing, high dollar ones are a little slower, well maybe just a little, gadgets are slow, night vision, magazines and ammo still seem pretty strong sales. Not sure how to compare that to cars or ??
I used to love buying at gun shows, but lately Ive been skipping the $10 entry fee and buying online.
local FTF is working well too, no recession there, only funding other projects :-)
We just had a show here. Asses and elbows. One evrry 3 mos. They are getting more crowded each time. People are lugging out cases of ammo.
Iwas at a public range a few months ago with a retired officer. We watched about 40 civilians, pops, moms, and kids all shooting well. He turned to me and said, "...you wanna try and take their guns?"
"Hell no. That'll be a one-off. Anyone else who tries it is going to be dead." These civilians were using FALs, Colt, DPMS, Brownings, Rugers, and those were just the rifles....
Also, no "wide loads" on the freeways. Never see CAT equipment moving around on lo-boys. My brother in law works for Cal_Trans and issues all the permits for "oversize loads. The normal backup is 4 to 6 weeks, this year they don't have any backup and wait for applications to be filed.
Great service at the fast food joint. Former office managers and construction supervisors serving up fries and displacing goofy teenagers from the workforce. Unemployed youth can get a student loan for college, then get a job flipping burgers... In the old days, this was a temporary condition. Not sure what you call a recession without recovery.
"Not sure what you call a recession without recovery."
Um... Peak oil?
Commute time to the office down 20% - no traffic.
Number of ads for Social Security disability
Number of people you know who are applying for disability. Any gathering can instantly turn into a legal strategy session as soon as the first person mentions their case.
That's when it hits me, "I might be the only person left over 40 who is still functional and not on half a dozen different pills."
Quickly followed by, "I need another beer. This will not end well."
"That's when it hits me, 'I might be the only person left over 40 who is still functional and not on half a dozen different pills.' "
+1.
Seems like everyone I know is on the happy pills. What happened to just f'n dealing with it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nAZi_eUjoU
Gold down to : 1710 $ in euro zone quote, Ag to 34.5 $ ?
What's it in USA?
About the same, probably a coordinated attack by the Morgue and the Fed due to the Bernank's testimony today. Let's see what the price is in a week, I wouldn't be surprised if it is back close to 1800/37, they can only keep the price down for a short time.
A street of small retail shops near where I live.
Remarkably accurate indicator of the state of the economy.
"Twice the work for half the pay." Hear it everywhere...
All your friends who are still employed work for some level of government (I'm not kidding)
Truth, my brother. Truth.
They're the only fucking optimists left.
Just wait.... they still think their pensions are untouchable.
Hah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
They don't think that if they hang around me for too long. But I break it to them easy, by quoting Greenspin.
Yes, you will still get a check. It just won't pay for anything. Better keep your teeth in good enough shape to eat dry dog food, as the canned stuff will not be affordable to any but the richest retirees.
I live in midtown Sacramento and my business (construction products) just completely died, but the Government just chugs along. I see the 20 and 30 somethings and actually many seem like they are better off than average. The either work for the State Guv, and students, nurses, etc. Anyone actually in a "free market" seems flat to destroyed, so many of my 40 somethings friends are more stressed than these kids. Gotta luv the Guv man, a job for everyone.
Friends I know who are doing the best economically get their paychecks from taxpayers or students.
Fuck it, I will starve to death before I go to work for this government period. They can suck my cock.
You do realize we all "work" for the government, its called taxes.
What is your favorite on the ground economic collapse indicator?
Bank runs already assumed :)
good indicator- go on a beach holiday anywhere in the world and it's not saturated with americans throwing around cash and shouting at each other so everyone has to hear them tell each other how great they are
so your mother is hurting for clients/money?
case closed
Beggers on corners. Craigslist housing wanted ads. Number of applicants for a lousy job where I work (about 200:1). Restaurant attendance (varies). Mall parking lots (fairly full). Crime statistics (booming).
One of my golf buds owns several motels in an upscale vacation location. Nothing national 4 star BS, just good downhome B&B, family motel deals.
Needing a new night clerk, Night Clerk, at one, he advertised. Got approximately 1,000 resumes, including Phd's, all age ranges, salary histories, backgrounds, professions and trades.
It was depressing to hear him tell of it.
Happened about 6 months ago.
Lots of families with pets, the whole deal, begging for a place to live on Craigslist. Usually advertising ruined credit, offering to barter work for a place, etc. Broke.
I have small 2nd gen family mfg biz in central jersey. We recently run ads for unskilled workers starting at $9 an hour, very few people responding. Seems not to many need jobs that badly here. Also seems like some current emploees are iching to be fired thinking they'll pick up unemployment, or maybe I'm just paranoid.
Many job ads state you will only be considered if you are currently employed.
As a farmer, I use the amount of customers and what they buy at my farmstand. High-end customers still have money and are keeping me alive. Regular folks are biting their lips and buying one pepper at a time. Years past they would have bought a pound. The sale of flowers are down big time. BUT, my costs are up big time. Seeds, fertilizer, fuel. Don't listien to that guy from Singapore. Do Not Go Into Farming.
"Do Not Go Into Farming"
Right, but definitely get into gardening. Plant NON-GMO, NON-Hybrid seeds.
Do Not Go Into Farming........
....and depend on someone else to grow your food for you? Uhh, no thanks. And what's the point in cultivating things you can't eat....a waste of time and resources.
huh? cultivate things you can't eat? oh, do you mean flowers? well the bees don't think they're a waste of time and resources.
poppies and sunflowers = seeds, oil and beauty and more. Flowers are merely plants that like to dress up.
I've been keeping bees for 15 years....bees pollinate more than flowers (i.e. vegetables and a variety of fruit and nut trees/bushes better worth your time and energy planting, no?) Besides, I don't reccommend eating your bees......
Have you looked into aquaponic systems w/ vegetables and tilapia? Veggies grow off the tilapia waste and clean the water to return to fish tank. A company now says a system like that can even grow salmon. Pumps can run off electric or biodiesel gen or solar. Setups add worm beds to the mix as well as duckweed to feed the fish. Supposedly produces hundreds of pounds of veggies and fish a year. "organic" too if that commands a premium.
Someone mentioned the retail vacancies... I work in a large light-industrial and commercial park in the St. Louis, MO region. The amount of vacancies in and around this area makes it feel like a ghost town. Everywhere you look are for sale and for lease signs posted in the nicely groomed landscaping out by the road.
I too will concur on the reduction in rail use. At one time I'd hear a freight line near my home each night... now it's once a week. I also travel about 1.5 hrs to our manufacturing facility that parallels a large freight line. There must be 50,000 empty rail cars sitting idle on sidings along that route.
I went to a car dealership for service last week. It's a small dealership. I arrived at 1pm and there were no other cars waiting for service or in the service bays the entire 2 hours that I was there. The waiting room was at the end of the showroom. No one came in to look at new cars while I was there. Irie silence.
I run an auto repair shop/towing service in Iowa-slow here as well.People are definitely driving less,but they are keeping the vehicles they have and putting money into them,rather than buy new.
I know guys that run shops in different parts of the country that say the same thing.
A lot of houses around here have been on the market for more than a year.
Probably transitory.......
ETA-One of my customers works at a plant making plastic pop bottles-used to get almost unlimited overtime,now they have their hours cut back.
I heard we already back to 2003 level of miles driven. Thwap, back nearly 10 years already.
Carpenters, painters, and other tradesmen for which I used to have to wait months to get anything done are now calling and asking me for work.
I had a Furnace installed today. The Older gentleman said that he was fired at age 60 from a Heating and Airconditioning Company after 20 years of service. He is liscensed and now does freelance repair and installation. He said that he is really hurting because of the warm weather and not one needing repairs or a new furnace. He also said that he works with other Landlords and they are putting off repairs. That the parts are so expensive and most Landlords do not realize that he is doing the repair for little or no money.
I would have been like the other Landlords just repairing it to hold it over but he gave me such a good price on a new furnace, I could not turn it down. I was expecting it would cost around $2,700. for a new furnace but he installed it for $1,050.
To say I was delited is an understatement but it does go to show you that people are struggling to survive and to get the work they will discount heavly.
I rarely visit the mall but I had to the other day. I was amazed at the number of people there...it was packed. But then I noticed very few people with packages. I decided to conduct an informal study so I picked a spot and started to count people with packages. It was running 3 or 4 per hundered. That can't be good.
Back before Christmas I went up to New York with my family for the first time. We went into FAO Schwartz near Central Park. The waiting line to get in was about 80-100 people long, and the store was packed ... yet what became obvious after a bit was that nobody was actually buying anything. Busiest time of the year, five clerk stations set up, not one was actually running customers.
I talked to a friend who was there recently - even the lines are gone now. Sales evaporated by Christmas, and now its a ghost-town.
People need to be able to get out of the house. Teens have always spent a lot of time hanging out at the Mall to relieve their boredom. The unemployed adults must be doing the same thing. Or maybe they are homeless.
bought a book on amazon for 1 penny. all you can eat salad bar buffet for $5.00. ivy league grads can't buy a job. 22% unemployment. 47 million on food stamps. $5,4 trillion fed budget deficit using gaap. people taking 100% commission jobs.
There are no books below $4 on Amazon (minimum price $.01 plus $3.99 shipping)
i bought the book for a penny. $3.99 for shipping.
So?
How much the government and their friends can steal without being prosecuted.
I say the economy is in hell.
Yeah, Corzine is walking around fucking free.
We're gonna need a lot of rope later.
Job ads section of the newspaper. There isn't much these days. Today I incidentally counted it, around 30 job ads in a National Newspaper (India). And most of them were low paying, not highly skilled workforce.
There are several more examples like Empty billboards, discount offers everywhere, not many people carrying shopping bags, (as one guy said above) not many babies and pregnant ladies in the circle, friends scared to change jobs, projects falling off....... on and on
BTW, all are negative in India.
people pushing their cars through drive through McDonalds
I ride my bicycle through the MacDonalds drive through. Goddamn speaker doesn't recognize me and the employees get pissed when I order at the pay window. No, I didn't misspell their name, as most of their customers pronounce it that way.
Not sure about recession indicator, but my inflation indicator was always the 5 for $5 roast beef sandwich special at Arby's - at least that is what is was in 1993 when I was in college. Anybody know what it is now ;)
The last time I saw it I think it was 3 for $5. 5 for 5 is long gone.
As an avid Arby's enthusiast, I can report--with tremendous sadness--that franchises in my area do no better than the current special of 2 for $5, a price that even I refuse to pay. Sigh.
The same houses I saw for sale last year are now on the market again as the winter season is now over. Housing recovery my ass.
Someone I know who's been in investment real estate for nearly 30 years, he owns several stabilized apartment buildings with historically low vacancy rates, says he hasn't seen so many late payers in a quite some time.
The sheeple have no money, only credit, which they will use liberally to buy iCrap. When people can't pay their rent, record foreclosures, etc. but have no problem using the ole' VISA card to buy crap they don't need, is a sign of something deeper than a recession.
Most don't even have substantial credit anymore, as it's either been maxed out, or limits lowered down.
I had one Tenant that has been with me for 4 years never late and then he got into some trouble. He called me and said he was having problems. A cut back on his job. We talked and I decided to reduce his rent by $400. Yes high end rental. This for me was cheeper than having the property vacant or trouble renting and he had been a great tenant up to this point. He was then paying me bi weekly. Which is ok as long as I got the rent for the month. He is recouperating financially and I raised his rent $100. and now he pays me around the 1st.
I have a lower end rental and they keep paying me later and later every month. I am going to have to start to put them into rent court now at the begining of the month as they have taken advantage of my "working" with them.
With my other Tenants I have not raised the rent in 3 years, so they always pay on time. I do not want vacancys. Plus, I do not think they are leaving because their rents are now below market. So, I guess it works for both of us.
I find that there are more and more people trying to rent property without sufficient income to support the rent. For them I think they just want to get in with one months rent and want you to give them time (after they are in) to pay the security deposit. Then stiff you, as it will take 3 months to get them out. Then they can go on to the next Landlord.
Yes, people are really struggling out there.
I had one Tenant that has been with me for 4 years never late and then he got into some trouble. He called me and said he was having problems. A cut back on his job. We talked and I decided to reduce his rent by $400. Yes high end rental. This for me was cheeper than having the property vacant or trouble renting and he had been a great tenant up to this point. He was then paying me bi weekly. Which is ok as long as I got the rent for the month. He is recouperating financially and I raised his rent $100. and now he pays me around the 1st.
I have a lower end rental and they keep paying me later and later every month. I am going to have to start to put them into rent court now at the begining of the month as they have taken advantage of my "working" with them.
With my other Tenants I have not raised the rent in 3 years, so they always pay on time. I do not want vacancys. Plus, I do not think they are leaving because their rents are now below market. So, I guess it works for both of us.
I find that there are more and more people trying to rent property without sufficient income to support the rent. For them I think they just want to get in with one months rent and want you to give them time (after they are in) to pay the security deposit. Then stiff you, as it will take 3 months to get them out. Then they can go on to the next Landlord.
Yes, people are really struggling out there.
Gallon of milk.
Milk is to subsidized to use as an indicator.
A bag of lay's potato chips is a good proxy for gasoline prices. I don't know why but they keep getting more expensive and the bags get smaller.
I wait until they have the 2 for 1 sales. No inflation but a large bag of chips is now over 4.50$. Less than 2$ just a couple of years ago, too bad they go rancid, if you could store them they double in value much faster than stocks or bonds.
Right on, and the killer is that potatoes have always been cheaper than the dirt they grow them in. Dad was from Ireland and would have potatoes with every meal (such a stereotype) but would not pay more than 10 cents a pound for them, always stocked up when on sale, he would have a stroke if he saw potato prices now. I have cut chips and ice cream both out of my diet totally and am pleased to say that that middle aged spread has stopped getting worse.
Another food related indicator of the depression, thin cut steaks, the meat counters are full of steaks cut so thin you can read a newspaper through them. I call them bacon cut because they are about as thick as bacon. Meat sales are way down according to a friend of mine who is a meat cutter at Safeway, and at $5.59 for hamburger it's no wonder. I remember telling him last year when it went to $3.29 if it went to $3.49 I would stop buying it, it shot right past $4.50 in a matter of weeks. He says it is going over $6 before summer.
Recession indicator: Robos lies about how well "his buddies" are doing are getting more and more outrageous. It's a sure sign of a deepening recession.
Thin, stray dogs w/o collars running in packs of 2 or 3 through back woods.
They are shooting packs of feral dogs here. That's new.
We had that several years ago along with lots of dropoffs. In fact my current hound-mix was a dropoff that wandered in, I fed her, and she stayed.
Last two years I haven't had one but a friend who volunteers at the no-kill shelters says they've all been packed for months and months and hardly anyone is taking them out.
Oddly however, we have two new Chinese banquet places in town...
I thought the dog in South Korea was pretty good....then again. coulda just been the "Slow-screw" on steeply graded streets combined with sneekin' under garage doors for a refill.
As a recession indicator...probably a good one. Narcissistic Americans tend to collect more animals than most societies. If serious inflation is coming....you'll see alot of shameless excuses and stories of "We lost our dogs the other day....it's so sad" (read: we are cutting back on the things we can't afford....like feeding our pets)
those aren't dogs, those are coyotes.
Why do you describe Americans as narcissistic? I feed three cats and pay for their county required vaccinations. I foresee a day when I'm going to have to have them euthanized because I can't afford to keep them anymore. I'm not going to dump them in the woods to starve. What are people supposed to do if they can't afford to feed their animals? It all sucks.
Eat em. Good meat is expensive these days!
Your exponentially increasing posts....
Morning commute traffic flow and composition if vehicles. Its been very light for 3 years now and the number of commercial vehicles is far lower as well.
everybody in my neighborhood hiring coyotes to sneak them into mexico for work...............
Well working for the cartels sure makes you a shitload of money.
Requirement : guts.
Downside : might die early... but oh well, life is transitory.
I'll add one other indicator I just thought of: I frequently go out and listen to local bands. One of the hottest bands in my area use to pack the house (standing room only). I saw them two weeks ago and had my choice of seats.
Locks on grocery store dumpsters.
They don't want to pay overtime to clean up the diver's mess.
Armed guards in the grocery store. Seriously.
I carry my own protection
My sister is in charge of inventory control at a Safeway in California, she says they have to keep the dumpsters locked not because of people eating what they toss and a lot of it is still edible just not SALABLE, but because too many people started sleeping in grocery store dumpsters, besides the possibility they would get hurt and sue the store they scare the employees, many (MOST?) are addicts and or crazy people who are off their meds. Her dumpsters are now in a locked garage type addition with a roll up door the garbage truckers have the remote to so onlt they and store employees have access. I guess a few years back some guy sleeping in one of their dumpsters got dumped and compacted and the family sued for millions.
There's a road in town where the cops were letting homeless people park their cars and rvs overnite. They all got pushed out this week with nowhere to go.
Porta-John and dumpster storage lots, they're full to overflowing.
"they're full to overflowing"
I hope you meant the lots and not the Porta-Jonhs!
Sorry, couldn't resist.
Na just the lots overflowing because none are on job sites.
Expired license plate tags are an interesting indicator.
The building contractors I know are checking out the license plates of clients in the posh neighborhoods, when they get called to come out and give estimates for repairs etc. If the tags are expired, they don't bid, because the client probably doesn't have the cash for the job and when it's time to pay up, will just tell the contractor to put a lien on the house. It's happened to a few.
Wow, what a f'd up story. I can't imagine stealing that blatantly from someone trying to earn an honest living.
I also can't imagine clients not limping around on broken legs, etc...
Friend did a job in Bev Hills--put in a brick patio around a swimming pool. Got his laborers, got the brick, got the patio put in--nice herringbone job.
Owner comes back from overseas, says 'hey, fuck ya, I'm not gonna pay ya--put a lien on the house!' and leaves.
Friend comes back the next day with the same laborers. Tells them to tear out all the brick and dump it in the pool. The laborers must have thought he was nuts... he was laughing his ass off.
That was DUMB. With the cost of brick why on earth did they throw it in the pool. I would have taken it with me.
I'd have been inclined to take it too. My guess is he didn't want it laying around and he got a hell of a lot more out of dumping it in the assholes pool--if he hauled it off it wouldn't have mattered much to the owner. As it went, the owner probably had to have the pool drained and cleaned to get all the brick out. $$$$$.
Gran Legacy Vodka. $9.99 @ CVS for a Big Boy (1.75 liter)
Go home & fugedaboudit.
Gringo, I must have read your post three times before I realized it did not say GRAND LARCENY, I must have had a small stroke in my sleep last night. (BTR checks for drool).
It's amazing how many people have been "pre-shopping" based on their income tax returns coming in. Most all of them have delayed the purchase because they have yet to receive the money; with most all saying they have been told by the IRS that their refund has been "delayed!"
RobotTrader's mom charges 30% less for her services.
Craiglist. I've sold plenty of household stuff on Craigslist since 2005, and it ain't moving nearly as fast in 2010-present as it used to, even here in DC, recession resistant as it is with the presence of the always-growing-like-a-well-fed-tumor Federal Gubmint.
One honest inquiry per one hundred data-mining attempts has put quite a damper on Craigslist.
Time to revert back to garage-sale nation! (honestly, is there anything made in China that isn't already here in sufficient quantities?)
Time to revert back to garage-sale nation!
Can't do that. You need a permit.
US economy grows, is in fact booming. Gold and silver down. What crisis, collapse, meltdown?
Read the post above from LookingWith Amazement, it would seem the price of crack is down.
Same here in South Florida.
No tourist "season" this year.
Quick drives ,empty cheap holtels and restaurants.
Bridges hardly ever up this year for boat traffic.
One cargo train every other day instead of three per day.
Quiet like a Ghost town.
In my day job we recieve RFQ's for arch/engineering projects daily for new/modernization projects coming up.
1 year ago we would have 4 to chase per month, now we have 1 to chase in 3 months.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/panorama/hi/front_page/newsid_9694000/9694094.stm
Locally with the 24 watchtower churches "all flavors" on duty for food and immediate needs we are doing what we should. Coordination with the City has enabled some proper support mechanisms forwarded to them with the ongoing depression. When we give not a cent is wasted. These are not the gamers of social services systems able to assist in the community. We have more important people to regard.
Designer shoes, made in Italy at Saks 5-th Avenue around $100
Hairier women. Getting plucked isn't cheap. They were sleeker five years ago. Happier too.
Good question, CHS. I also own some storage rentals, so some of my favorites:
1. Increase in people living out of mini-storage units (Hobbits)
2. Increase in the number of idle shipping containers being repurposed and sold to the general public for storage and shelters
3. Record #s on Food Stamps, the 21st century food lines. Otherwise we'd see them on the 6 o'clock news all lined up around the block like 1933
But I think the biggest overall seachange is the growing movement of people exchanging their fiat currency to store food and ammo. That's a big change in the cultural mindset and those who are not doing it yet are hearing about it and changing their habits. I wonder just how much of any uptick in retail uptick is actually going to survival essentials. Things that make you go hmmm...
Three of my coworkers last week, out of the blue, told me they are storing extra food, just in case....
Thrift stores are crowded, especially on days that offer extra discount for seniors, fixed income folks are hurting big time.
Newspaper is thinner, want ads are nonexsitent in a top 10 city and state capital.
Number of stories in local paper reporting thefts of copper and other metals.
The more and more dirty looks I get when I'm in my Luxury Car. At the gas station this morning I almost yelled over, "I'm not one of them, I'm retired from an honest profession". At least more and more are starting to understand. Guess I have to start driving my wife's un ostentatious vehicle a bit now.
AMEN, but I do not have anybody else's car to drive. Just having a clean late model car of any kind seems enough to set off some drivers. And now that we are finally getting some spring weather I love to have the top down, but I never ever leave it down when I go into a store because I am afraid trash will get tossed into it or a lit cigarette or something. Right after the crash got seriously beyond just the housing bubble popping, it was spring of 2009 when I bought my car, someone was going around town throwing superglue on new Mercedes and BMW's. My car was not even two weeks old when it got hit. BMW spent 6 hours scraping and buffing the hood to return it to new condition and did not charge me a cent, I had my checkbook out and feared the worst, the service manager said NO CHARGE. With the economy in it's current shape I doubt they would still do that, but BMW does treat customers like they want to keep you.
Surge in seemingly "low barrier-to-entry" businesses. Specifically, the increase in number of 'professional' photographers.
I enjoy amateur photography and on some blogs I read on photography are angry messages from the real pros telling folks to hold firm on pricing and not to acquiese to pricing pressure from amateurs who are able to buy increasingly available pro-sumer cameras and gear cheaply on Amazon.
"I'll shoot your wedding for $300".
You can then buy an app on your iPad for $10 that will show you how to edit your images in Adobe Lightroom to 'studio quality'.
I asked my sales guy what was up at B&H Photo here in NYC and he said many of the lower-priced of the higher end models are sold out.
So, become a wedding photographer I guess.
"Hold firm on pricing" and watch your family starve.
Funny how the protectionist bent of guild thinking undermines itself.
Sure they offer superior quality. What they don't understand is that most of us can no longer afford it. So they get mad and blame their "inferior" competition, who happens to provide a "good enough" product (though, obviously not in all cases).
So... they either need to focus solely on the high-end (and on being the best), or seek to cut their costs so that they can compete with what the market will bear.
"I'll shoot your wedding for $300".
I know a bunch of mercenaries that will do it for less than that...
Plus, they get all you can eat at the food table.
LOL
Freight Trains! You hit it on the head Tyler. I have been using this metric since 2008. For about 10 months in March of '08 I lived right next to a CSX line in CNJ.
I noticed a significant drop in cars but also in the amount of passes as the months went by. By late summer of '08, the frequency of loaded trains declined by about 20% per day (Mon-Sat) over a 1 month period.
By the time I left in late December, the drop in frequency was approximately 28% per day.
I'll bet there's a strong downstream correlation between rail freight traffic and the Baltic Dry Index.
add gasoline sales and you have a triumvirate of trade indicators.
1) Asking the check out person at any retailer how sales are doing... they'll tell you straight up... For grocers and stores that accept food stamps, ask them if they get an influx around the first of the month, etc... the checkout person will tell you...
2) checking the number of properties certified to the state for non-payment of property taxes
3) restaurant wait times
4) listening to my wife (who goes into homes to provide counseling services)... geez. "Can you like give me a ride to the store and buy me a soda?" "no... I'm your therapist"... [while they have a flat screen tv in every room]
5) the lines at night court from the district/municipal court treadmill... /the cost of tickets.
Have you seen the price of flat screens? I was in WallyWorld yesterday and saw a 55" Samsung plasma for $995. I bought my 46" Sony Bravia LCD in 2007 for $2,358. A new 46" LCD can be had for $375. Of course plasmas are almost about to go bye bye because they use more electricity than a Vegas hotel, and you can heat your home just by watching the shopping channel, but still.
One thing that really kills me is that amid all this evidence of a depression is the sheer opulence the well off are living in. Grange Coop had an ad circular in the paper yesterday and some of the items shown were just too strange, body bling for your polo pony? We have 50 million people on food stamps and a quarter of all mortgaged houses are underwater and threatened with delinquency and foreclosure yet some people can afford to spend $35 for a spangly bunch of bling to glue to their horses butt? No that really is narcissistic. But, when I see that kind of shit all I can think is that contrary to the right wing assertion our taxes are WAY too low, at least on the upper tier of incomes and wealth.
I think it's in part the natural business cycle for any product/market... along with a desire by manufacturers to provide more diversity... When hdtvs first hit the shelves, there simply weren't as many models... now there are models only particular stores get or models with even 1 less hdmi input... in other words, if you want to shop at the top end, it's still $2k + ... but, if you're willing to shave off a few bells and whistles, then you can get a bargain. About the only thing you can get at wally world is a hisense t39 55" that's apparently a really nice rebranded samsung... I would generally run away from wally world for a tv purchase...
PS, people like plasmas because of the picture quality... I haven't seen anything that accurately portrays black colors as good as a plasma... all the bullshit bleed through or washed out images of other technologies... of course, it comes with a heftier electricity price tag... sometimes an onerous burn in period (100+ hours on the pannys)... and generally less ability to handle glare... but, all in all, you've still got the kuro atop the aficianado best of list...
Empty homes and empty storefronts in typical middle-class areas are the best on-the-ground indicators. Local RE pricing is a good indicator also. Traffic and population in stores / malls is to subjective.
Vixen Index ftw. The hotter the waitress at the local watering hole the shittier the economy. Boom!
The growing number of hot ass women on Millioniare type dating sites. ;)
Being able to negotiate almost anything with any store, large of small. Bought a lot of one item on sale a week ago in a large chain store. Cashier rang up a high number. I saidf, "Thats not the sale price". When I said I didn't know the sale price she said, "how much do you think it should be". She rang up the number I gave her which gave me 18% below the real sales price. It won't cost you anything to try it!
1. empty store fronts are a good one..and there's lots of those;
2. high frequency RE pumping & shilling intensifies with every dip;
3. unmowed lawns and moving trucks loading up in the middle of the night.
The dime bag guy who works the parking lot at a nerarby office and shopping plaza seems to have a fairly good handle on things. He tells me biz is OK., but no where like it used to be. I do note that he is driving a new (to him) motor scooter now.
How 'bout this one:
The number of lies coming outa the BLS.
The buffet lines at the "locals" casinos (ie, off-Strip casinos that we locals go to) here in Las Vegas - used to be, if you wanted a buffet for Friday night dinner, you counted on a 30-60 minute wait to get in...all the casinos still have these huge areas roped off for the buffet lines...except that a "long line" now means there are two parties in front of you. And, remember, buffets are cheap...depending on where you go and what discounts you can obtain, dinner for two is $14 to $30, so not a huge burden for anyone to bear if they are working...but no one is going...