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Guest Post: Where Are The Markets Headed Next?
Submitted by Tony Pallotta of Macro Story
Where Are The Markets Headed Next?
Being honest, no one knows. But, using the current road map it appears we may have a little more selling before a decent move higher. Below is the updated 2007 "analog" as compared to the current market. Few interesting points.
The move in 2007 from Point F to the next low was 15.3%. The market then rallied 10% before another leg lower.
The current move from Point F to the current low is 11.1%. Interesting a 15.3% move from Point F would bring the SPX to 1,143 which is the rough target of the head and shoulder's pattern and where key support levels come into play.
At some point this market will rally and will rally hard. Remember there are a lot of participants who view this selloff as excessive and based on fear. They view the macro data as a soft patch and see the Fed ready to launch QE3. When this market rallies they will be very loud in their "I told you calls." Many shorts with conviction after a day or two of market strength will in fact panic and begin to believe in the health of the economy contrary to what they know in their heart.
When studying the 2007-08 chart remember Bear Stearns was "bailed out" by JPM in March 2008 which caused a multi month rally that preceded the epic selloff.
My personal view is we are headed for a similar epic selloff. I'm not sure when but suspect it is sooner than most think. BAC breaking down could very well be the modern day LEH failure. We are surrounded by "black swans" right now from rumors of Italian run on the banks to failed Spanish auctions and more.
Vix Skew Divergence
The skew continues to move lower while the vix moves higher meaning volatility is more evenly distributed and "black swan" events are less of a concern among investors. Still based on historical levels the all clear signal for equities is unclear. Below are two charts (1) short term chart that looks like more selling is probable and (2) long term chart to put the current levels in perspective.
I wish I could be more definitive in terms of where markets are headed next based on this signal. Probability would say further selling based on divergence and the 2007 pattern but this market is emotionally charged with lots of leverage. A dangerous combination. Be careful out there, respect stops and don't be a hero.
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freaky Friday bitchez
No more glib or sardonic comments from me tonight. I genuinely think we may be on the verge of something awful ('we' meaning the global economy).
This is another credit crisis, with the Fed being genuinely constrained (with rates at 0.25%; what's to lower, unlike in 2007, when those rates were at 6.25%?), and unlike in 2008, with Bear Stearns and Lehman (and many other financials) sinking, now we have the too big to fail but too big to save - sovereigns like Italy, Spain - maybe France & the U.K - in serious risk.
The global economy isn't equipped to deal with this. It's an outsized crisis.
I want to point to this example as how the cascading effect quickly gets to the point that it's unstoppable, and this is quite relevant now, as not even the world's biggest central banks can 'fix' the massive debt overhang that's been accrued since roughly 1983, and the binge and purge is the only thing that will flush the system.
All the world is a debt junkie, some nations more than others, but debt junkies all the same.
Some junkies die during withdrawal. Keeping them high requires larger doses of drugs, which leads to nearly certain OD, also.
Here's the example:
RealClearMarkets - Lessons From the Credit-Anstalt Bank CollapseLike I said, this time, the credit risks are major sovereigns. There is no fix, by even the most imaginative angles.
This is what happens when Keynesianism run amok has debt layered on debt for many decades, and the financial parasites designed extremely opaque and uber levered derivative products to try and capture outsized profits on those vehicles, knowing that they will be bailed out - until they aren't, because their sovereign sugar daddy has taken a bullet.
Row, row, row your boat...
Now just throw a massive dollar short-covering rally into the mix since the dollar carry trade that lifted all boats will quickly sink them when unwound. The Fed managed to engineer probably the most lop-sided trade and the largest associated speculative bubble in human history. Ben Bernanke's helicopter just smashed into a cliff.
Nah... QE3 is right around the corner. I am a buyer here.
Time to load up on BAC, NFLX and AAPL.
I had to double check that it wasn't Hammy, because even by his satirical stupidity, your post is legend.
Make sure to pick up some LULU, too, since your urinal cake business is sure to suffer for the foreseeable future.
Urinal cakes are highly discretionary.
Might want to stamp: DO NOT EAT THE MINT on the urinal cake so the stupid people won't eat them after they are stolen.
mmmm...urinal cake
Harry, Hairy, Herly, Whatever. Your a pimp boy for CNBC. Get a job. They need you.
McConnel & Co. guaranteed the collapse of the U.S. economy. You may get a dead cat bounce. Hint. Sell the Dead Cat.
Real investment money is going into Singapore and Russia with a little Indonesia.
The U.S. We are Japan Now. Means: Declining Markets and Economic Contraction. Japan would acutually be a better bet than USA.
Without fiscal aid from the government to juice anything. We are Dead Money. Or should I say Declining for the count.
Japan did their 20 years of hell. We have just begun. Bambi has no balls and is worthless. He is Not FDR. Maybe Hoover.
Good Luck all. We are going down here. Cats included.
Harry,
as usual, anyone who fails to appreciate your humor and gives you a thumbs down is not someone I would like to have a beer with (and therefore also stands little chance of being elected President in 2012). keep up the good work.
wait... shit... sorry, I got confused. I thought you were Hamy Wanger. You're not joking, are you? You are in for pain.
L-S,
Note the putative surname of the poster. It's not Harry, it's not Hamy, it's........ ANOTHER one!
And when QE(Strike)3 bites the dust ... and it will ... the fortune you make in MicroDollars will be worth how much in *NewImproved* MegaDollars?
About One dessicated cheese sandwich. Bon Apetit, Harry!
Floyd Norris of the New York Times, a through and through Bernanke & Federal Reserve Apologist, is just the latest in a long stream of Fed Apologists to criticize QE2 and QE, generally, as being an ineffective program.
I am not shocked, but I am surprised that so many Fed boosters are now publicly and loudly claiming QE is bad medicine, especially given that Jackson Hole is mere days away, and consensus view is that QE3 is a given.
And this isn't some article buried in on page B11 of the business section, it's a prominent and highlighted front page article.
FEMA camps and global currency ( not cigarettes or bum sex). Global fiatso coupons for food instead of debit cards. Great! Hope you can stash a kugerrand in your aynusrand.
It's unstoppable until it stops; and it will stop. Then there will be something else. This is not the end of the world. Life will go on. Embrace the change.
like nickels and dimes right?
'42 - '45 nickels and mercury dimes.
bravo my friend
The humble nickel still has nickel content and value.. about 30% over face.
The rate we're going, it may be the new barter dollar.
Anyone with pre-1965 Washington Quarters will be big pimpin'.
Absoloutely. Been stated here, and other places on the internets. common, physical metal US coins will be the day to day currency if TSHTF. PMs like silver eagles and gold ozs. will only be seen at hospitals, used to pay doctors for legitimate illnesses, or for surgeries after gunfights over said precious.
EDIT: Fed has 1 Billion presidential and sacejwea coins stored in the basement. presidential dollar program to be halted. last president minted rutherford b. hayes. Sorry Jimmy, Bush boys, Bubba and Obama.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/72859192/
Like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMZwc_qOZPY
There's no credit crisis yet. What' the LIBOR spread? You'll have to wait until one of the big European Banks fail, and create a cascading failure in Europe, which will spread across the globe in hours, thanks to the electronic age.
Forget BAC. If there's a credit crisis, it'll start in Europe.
In EU the central issue is will the Germans allow the ECB to print away if the Italian crisis creates bank liquidity crisis. That is now the overhanging cloud on the EU front. Looks like the printing presses will have to churn overtime all over the world : FED, ECB and BOJ! To keep the bears out of the honey pot!
Exactly. US banks are already on life support - but theres no way its getting pulled by Dr. Ben et al.
Over here in London, some big decisions will have to be made regarding RBS and Lloyds, probably the 2 most probabaly suspects. Otherwise, pick any handful of SPA or ITA banks (hello France, you arent excluded) and we could easily see not just a 1-2 LEH-AIG event but im talking systemic failure across the financial sector.
Scary stuff.
"The global economy isn't equipped to deal with this. It's an outsized crisis."
Ah... the global economy is predicated on endless growth, so, sure, it's NOT equipped to deal with the fact that this is a finite planet. Slinky down the staircase (note: not my description, but it really is the best one).
Debt is just claims on future growth. We wrote too many IOUs on the future. We blew our wad. We threw a rod. Stall speed here we come, and then the reversal of economies of scale whipsaws us out of our sleep. This is what collapse looks like just before it can't be denied any longer.
Oh, someone here (ZH) mentioned that we were re-entering a recession within the depression. Yup, it's a matter of changes in deceleration, but it's all down and to the right.
Excellent, excellent post...
Sorry, sir.... we're all out of silver bullets
Here's a more direct link to a very fine article on Credit-Anstalt:
Lessons from the Credit-Anstalt CollapseAnd here's a very finely written, and eery (history rhymes, as Mark Twain would say) excerpt:
Was't Credit-Anstalt the trigger for the 1930s Depression while Unicredit in Italy with other branches outside of Italy - the trigger for this one? Don't both of them have the name Rothschild involved?
Was't Credit-Anstalt the trigger for the 1930s Depression while Unicredit in Italy with other branches outside of Italy - the trigger for this one? Don't both of them have the name Rothschild involved?
All true TIS.
Yesterday, the first grain on the sand shifted.
Avalanche ahead. o doubt.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/04/many-drafts/
"too big to fail but too big to save"
Here's a neater way to put it (feel free to use, everyone):
"too big to fail but too big to bail"
"An Outside Context Problem was the sort of thing most civilisations encountered just once, and which they tended to encounter rather in the same way a sentence encountered a full stop. The usual example given to illustrate an Outside Context Problem was imagining you were a tribe on a largish, fertile island; you'd tamed the land, invented the wheel or writing or whatever, the neighbours were cooperative or enslaved but at any rate peaceful and you were busy raising temples to yourself with all the excess productive capacity you had, you were in a position of near-absolute power and control which your hallowed ancestors could hardly have dreamed of and the whole situation was just running along nicely like a canoe on wet grass... when suddenly this bristling lump of iron appears sailless and trailing steam in the bay and these guys carrying long funny-looking sticks come ashore and announce you've just been discovered, you're all subjects of the Emperor now, he's keen on presents called tax and these bright-eyed holy men would like a word with your priests."
This is much more informative
Here's The Problem With This Market Crash... http://read.bi/qcCJqt
fascinating
silver/gold to the moon!
I have been watching Kitco all night on the Hour chart.
It's limp as a 90 year old bedridden on sedatives.
I look at this one of two ways. A complete capituation of previous PM positions by those who don't know better from either Physical or Paper shares or.... a complete surrender not by choice to cover losses demanded by the Market.
I am getting too damn old to be pulling an all nighter waiting for Europe to open. But when they do, Asia's experience should repeat itself.
Several times I have set up a ask; only to pull it and wait/see because of the persistent weakness shown by Kitco hour chart.
Asia is sucking.
It sure did.
Used to be China bought hand over fist by the goddamn ship load and you can see it in the crappy PM Tape off Kitco or whatever.,
Now? Nothing. Makes anyone standing about with a hand out for a Bid listing to buy something look like a Orphan "Oliver" holding the bowl up and asking "More?" only to be punished for such self initiative.
Europe is going to open soon and I have a bad attitude. If you recall the old bumper stickers long ago about those with the Bird being the word... then we will see how this fine morning goes.
gold to the moon
Fixed it.
We will rally to infinity on a +infinity payroll number. Barry made a phone call.
Charles Hugh Don't Fight Bet On The Fed
http://www.oftwominds.com/mobileOTM.html
Mother Nature laughs at the Fed! And Mother Nature bats last!
"Naturam expellas furca, tamen usque recurret"
Since we all know any such Grand Gesture will fail, then the Fed would be committing institutional suicide.
if you replace 'institutional' with 'intentional', the choices may become a little clearer.
Thanks Atomizer, I like reading this guy CHS's bearish view on what the FED can do.
This is one of the key issues : Has the QE-2 failure (sterile can kicking) and the recent Congressional gridlock (no mercy on US fiscal pumping), changed the view of international markets on the reserve currency role of USD? Is this the straw that broke the camel's back and destroyed the sovereign creditor world's confidence (China, Japan, Germany/Norway, ME oil kingdoms; Russia), in the ability of the FED to pump and dump effectively.
If this is the case than the american HF and their highly leveraged plays on derivatives will lose international surplus, (hot), money support. And the heat will turn directly on the US economy.
"We don't believe you anymore" is the most damning thing a central banker wants to hear from his peers. In this case, QE-3's effectivenes will lose all effect. As Marc Faber says, the coming weeks will be crucial to see if the FED, and the US WS oligarchy it represents, still has financial clout to convince the sovereign creditor market to follow it.
S&P500 head and shoulders target is 1,176 and further downside
expected.
As mentioned for some time - S&P500 monthly has been tracking sideways this year. This extensive distribution signified a bearish big picture and that a significant downtrend would follow.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Where did you find that number, I posted it a few days ago. Right on. Bounce from there.
Zh says lower. Either way. It's DOWN from here.
great article
Straight down, based on layoff reports all week on Bloomberg via satellite.
Also Losses must be covered by those who did not have time to cover prior to today's close.
Metals are trading very tightly.. 15 cents or so apart... almost as if it's waiting to take off and go to the moon. Might be a long night.
I say open, plung 340 and then fight back and close around 800 down.
If QE3 goes into effect, then the PPT will render all of my doom saying irrevelant. and Metal will take off.
With the data that is already out like you said, there isn't even a way for the government to even manipulate this payroll report like they have the others....it is definitely doing to be very bad!!!!!! And SPY will pay homage to 110 quickly
no cheap oil ...no cheap widgets
stocks are highly overvalued
Yeah. Remember Chuckie Prince: "We're still dancing"? Today seemed like a bit of a dance to me ... no real panic, just a bit of carefully choreographed decompression.
Maybe the target to close shorts is more of time than price ... i.e. a day or so before Jackson Hole and, presumably, the onset of QE3 which should ignite another monstrous rally ... I think.
Of course Q3.
Kind of thinking its time for the huge crash now and it will be lengthy and will really suck. Kind of wondering if our economic world will make it through the weekend. Bad feeling about this weekend. Bank holiday anyone?
How about a 1,000 pt drop tomorrow?
Yeesh, just as we are going on vacation..
We will carry over $10k just in case of problems until we get home.
EVERYONE! In addition to gold, it is worthwhile to carry around at leat $5,000 to get you back if on vacation....
Where we live, it's a 460 Rowland and a BUG revolver with adequate ammunition when out and about away from home, not money.
Seagull says:
'Where we live, it's a 460 Rowland and a BUG revolver with adequate ammunition when out and about away from home, not money.'
Hey Seagull, not everyone thinks visiting a red state in the USA is a vacation... some might consider it a highly distasteful and repulsive idea in fact. Do you assume people are not going anywhere but to a red state for vacation?
I like and own guns too. But they don't go to the south of France, Costa Rica, Chile, Canada or elsewhere abroad with me.
When the trouble is so great that we don't dare travel far from home anymore, THEN the guns will be always at the ready.
All I can say is that over the years I have taken many small vacations in country all over the USA. And several overseas.
Until a few years ago Guns were not part of the family in any shape or form.
Until the first gang related grafitti from MS13 showed up on a side of a store in our area. That was enough for us to go ahead and start packing. Now we wonder if we really need to be "Packing our suitcases" and take a little vacation somewhere.
Don't know for sure but my prediction on the other board is this, market tanks @ 600-750 pts. BAC closes at $6.66 or lower and dies over the weekend thanks to a mini bank run tomorrow on the bad news surrounding them the depositers withdraw everything. TPTB come in scoop up everything worth anything and feed the carcass of bad debts to the taxpayers, Because BAC has so many hands in so many cookie jars, well it gives TPTB (debt brotha, CONgress, the bernank fed) reasons to unleash QE as much as needed and CONgress to provide ' fiscal stimulation' as much as needed to cover BAC's funeral expenses and a lil extra for pork barreling. The inflationary depression will not stop PMs going to infinity as QE/fiscal stimulus fails physical PMs will be hard to come by at least at the market 'spot price' Mad Max time Bitchez!
I don't know how you can consider a death of a large bank like BAC.
Such a falling giant will block the sun for those caught in it's shadow and influence.
Down, down, down.
At best it is the year 1931.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia19201940.html
So, 2.5 years to gold confiscation?
Just review the DTS report. Someone is cash burning debt ceiling funds. Timmah is granted approval in continuing daily operations.
I owe ZH an apology. My 8 year old son posted this commentary. He doesn't know anything about financial markets but he seems to be a wiz at computer hacking!
Obviously the Global Bank Cartel disaster of 2011 has nothing to do with the place setting time bomb that was 2007.
I have told junior this site is for adults and he has promised to refocus on Call of Duty.
Keep him focused on COD, and AWAY from BF3 or it will COST you in the Hardware required to run the game.
I have a stack of hardware and more on the way as I type this sitting next to the computer, which will soon to be retired after only a year.
His comments seemed appropriate and earned him 2 green peas.
Market has tremendous rally on tomorrows news that 2 jobs were created.....and barton biggs gets redemption!!!!
We are fucked for the LONG TERM.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1ZV4Mx7tw8
Next will be down,Very far down.
Here's what I think:
QE3 Fed buys stocks
QE4 Fed buys houses
QE5 Fed buys small countries
QE 6 Fed buys people, with a sorta return to slavery, but at least they eat.
Reminder . . . the Fed isn't for the American people nor a part of government. It is an entity for its shareholders which are banks. This is true but few people know this.
here's a remix:
QE1 Fed bought securitized houses (as long as the minions don't continue to shriek about those silly robotitles)
QE2 Fed bought stocks (through a couple chinese walls)
QE3 Fed buys WW3
QE4 Fed buys itself and implodes into a white dwarf
That which cannot continue forever, won't. I long ago figured that the ultimate/final goal would be that the Fed would collapse into itself.
Where is RoboDouche?
Where's Hamy. I always get a kick outa' Hamy.
Excellent question! Although some of his commentary has been useful to me...
Dup
Can an algo "panic"?
Oh yea, grabbing more AG for paper....love it, gonna be pissed when this thing resolves.
Denial lasts as long as the consequenses can be deferred.
Asian markets in meltdown mode tonight. It's going to be an interesting day tomorrow.
It was not the JPM "bail out" of Bear Sterns that triggered the rally in March. It was the FED announcing the expansion of QE!!!!
WTF??????
Here:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/qe1-timeline.html
March 18, 2009: FOMC Statement: Expand MBS program to $1.25 trillion, buy up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities
S&P 500: 794.35
"To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months."
Seriously? JPM bail out of Bear Sterns caused the fuckin rally? Gimme a fuckin break.
Ah, he's talking about the JPM bailout of BS in March 2008, not the rally that started in March 2009.
You are a year late to the party. That was in 2008 not 2009 that I am showing... Perhaps you missed daylight savings a few too many times. How did the markets rally a year before QE was announced? Nice one!
My mistake on the time line. Granted. However, I still dispute the premise that it was the JPM "bailout" of BS that triggered any rally but rather it was the FED signaling it would do "whatever it takes" to keep the banks solvent...even if it meant destroying their own credibility.
As mentioned in this:
"On April 29, a former top Federal Reserve official told The Wall Street Journal that by offering $30 billion in financing to JPMorgan for Bear’s assets, the Fed had “eliminated forever the possibility [that it] could serve as an honest broker.” Vincent Reinhart, formerly the Fed’s director of monetary affairs and the secretary of its policy-making panel, said the Fed’s bailout of Bear Stearns would come to be viewed as the “worst policy mistake in a generation.” He noted that there were other viable options, such as looking for other suitors or removing some assets from Bear’s portfolio, which had not been pursued by the Federal Reserve."
Reuters, “Ex-Fed Official Criticizes Bear Stearns Rescue,” citing Wall Street Journal (April 29, 2008).
Yeah, Bear got hosed, but they were never really in "The Club", and Paulson and some others were still pissed at them for not participating in the LTCM bailout. Or so the story goes.
This pattern has played out beautifully so far.
The job numbers better be as negative as everyone is saying or we could see a bounce tomorrow.
MSM pundits all squawking for QE3.
Dumbfuck pundits and Bernanksters,
QE1, 2, 2.5...
QE3 will kick the can. It will create more inflaton. It will destabilize governments. It will starve millions.
You fucks will take more money from the taxpayer. Give it to more banksters.
The Bernanks and Krugmans think they have the answer to 1931.
Maybe they do.
But back then liquidity wouldn't flow too far.
Maybe from DC to Atlanta.
Even to the West Coast.
Today GS pushes a button.
It flows to China, EM, & other risk assets.
It flows to an offshore HFT account.
They may understand 1931.
They haven't got a clue to 2011.
These "PhD's" miss the simple factors that often determine the outcome.
No, they don't miss anything. They're paid jesters. It's their job to distract us so that their masters (who pay them lavishly for not producing anything of value to/for the average person) continue to rule.
Anyone else notice the BIG AIG MISS!!!!! Seems to not be talked about tonight on any of the business channels, they gotta hide the rotten fat...
Deleted double post. Move along please!
Art Cashin stated earlier that big players were expecting a 1000 point drop minimum at any time....not including todays drop....Anyone long better get worried, because today's selling was just a prequel to what is coming for this ponzi scheme collapse.
Gold then bitchez!
Yea and when you get hungry, maybe I'll throw you a chicken leg for an ounce.
maybe you will wander about the countryside trying to trade rotting chicken legs for rototiller parts...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coincidence_of_wants
Maybe a bit of wild hog if you are sharp and fast on your sights. Back east it would be deer for winter.
lets play the stock market limbo, how lowwwwwwww can we go?
Asian equities markets down big tonight but the PMs are holding up well and have regained some of their small losses.
Gold from $1644 to $1658
Silver from $39 to $39.44
So far the big drops seen in US equities markets and Asian markets have not taken gold down much.
Tomorrow is another day and I don't have a crystal ball handy.
If forced to place a bet I would short the DJ tomorrow... all bets off if Benny anounces more easy money.
Tomorrow is going to reveal itself as the hours go by, Asia failed and Europe is next.
10-4, we will see...
A plus one green to you!
Yeah Hungry, tomorrow will be 'interesting times'. I would like to stay up for the European open but I got things to do tomorrow and need some Zs.
I'm really curious about the rumored bank runs in Italy. When that happened in the US a couple of times around 2008 the news was suppressed...at least in MSM.
Merkel is on vacation but is said to have come back for a meeting with other pols/bankers. Not that I expect them to accomplish much if anything.
Wonder how much exposure BoA has to Italian soverign debt?
Goodnite...
HMMM, BAC started by Italian immigrants, Italian bank runs? Maybe there is something to BAC's demise tomorrow or over the weekend...I was just pulling it outta my ass but now that I think about it TPTB might be giving a heads up to all the sheeple when the shit went down in Italy earlier today that BAC was the next domino to fall. Just a thought...as I have said before all the dealings I have ever had with BAC were shit and I hope they burn hotter and brighter than the Hindenburg!
Italy Italy Italy.
Reminds me of Sgt. Hulka.
A cookie for you if you know that line and where it came from.
Stripes?! Only because of the Sgt Hulka thing, I haven't seen that movie in about 20 years! I was flipping through the channels the other day and it was on. RIP John Candy.
Also, notice the H&S pattern; right shoulder plunge coming on GOOG
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GOOG+Basic+Tech.+Analysis
$400-$425 is the bottom for GOOG
I don't understand HFT. But it seems to me that if HFT can drive the markets up, it can drive them down. Quickly.
Correct me if I'm wrong.
HFT is essentially pre-programmed computers buying and selling MUCH faster than a human can.
It can almost find your price and then ... shill you up before you know what happened you are out. Not only out, but now in debt and need to cover.
HFT works by profiting from the spreads on the ask/bid that other market players either cannot act on quickly enuf, or are blinded to by quote stuffing. IMO, even tho HFT is insanely fast, it probably slows actual overall declines or gains because it has to buy AND sell to capture the profit. Anyone think different?
no rally till wall street gets margin call chaos, then maybe a rally. but. we have china, who's economic breaking point is an oil price over 90. china goes, so does wall street and any mega multi mth relief rally.
We are all FUCKED -- LONG TERM .
How so? We have no paper in the Stock Market. Just physical metal.
I will presume that some here remember what the late 70's felt like, I get the hebbie jeebies just feeling that groove all over again.
We are going to see DOW sub-7,000 by Nov.
What a hoot! This from JP Morgue via the WSJournal...
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/08/04/gold-j-p-morgan-loves-it-big-time/
'Gold: JP Morgan 'Loves' it big time'
double reverse inverted psych job... JP is getting desperate
Maybe they want to show us the 2009 green shoots.
Oh right, that was the record bankster bonus year.
http://billionaires.forbes.com/article/067hfPL75UgjL
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=11260
The restructuring of the EU will give America its QE3...
ha ha Timmy can't get out.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/04/us/politics/04geithner.html?_r=1&
NQ has yet to break neckline...take out your faves (big double top in PCLN you say?) i prefer NFLX...cuz reed's a douche...
NFLX
whoever came up with these two charts made an excellent call.
it would appear they are plotted on current data.
Too many bearish posters on zh tonight. Yesterday can rip higher as sentiment is through the floor. Absent some euro bank blowing up I'd buy tomorrow but eventually fade the rally.
Not bearish.
I am a bona fide Silver Bull. Anything that can scatter the sheep from the paper inferno into the corral of PM's where they lie among the golden streets in peace are going to get gored by me.
poetic
Time for the EU and the FED to fire up another credit card and remind all the key players that Mark to Fantasy accounting, phony stress tests, infinite central bank bailouts, infinite money printing, and regulators who won't regulate means never having to admit you are broke! The only Law that exists now is that the Ponzi must be saved! The Dow will rise to 20,000+ in inflated dollars and the Shorts, the middle class, and cash and paper holders will be crushed. GOT GOLD?
All I know but I can't see where the similarity is the 2007 selloff is nice and orderly biggest down draft is a 40 handle move 2x.
Lots of breaking in between. Don't see the breaking here see accerleration.
If Gold tanked on margin today then I'm looking for more of the same over next 3 trading days. Not sure where the breaks will come but the 2011 is blowing out 2.5 standard deviation and anything else in it's way.
If I remember correctly it's called fear.
They are not talking much about it because AIG turned profitable...so it really does not 'matter' if the results were below street expectations.
Why is everyone is so worried about having to live within our means. Every other critter on this planet has to. Why should we be exempt?
mmmm..."a little more selling" the Cryptmeister says....mmmmmmm....
How "little?"
Phfff. There will be no market by 2015.
Possibly sooner.
Lumpheads.
Neither can I resist the quantisential whatever-ness.
Whatever. You are all >> in line. <<
I cannot resist a rhetorical baited question.
Zero.
What I find amazing is that the numbers are showing a recession and the prevailing wisdom is to do more QE... What ever happened to leaving the economic cycle self correct and stop trying to manipulate the market. Unbelievable.
Why is crude oil the biggest faller in this (off 15% since Monday)? Makes no sense unless someone thinks we are headed back to the Stone Age.
Where IS that ticking sound coming from?!!!
Yesterday was a present to Obama from the puppet masters. They're not happy with him.
10-4 on that Hobbleknee !
Screen so red when i got home,thought the livingroom was on fire.Think he got the message ?
Oh sorry he`s getting his bus tour circus campaign together after all, its all about the election and next golf game.No time to actually come up with a precise plan on what direction to lead the country besides .yes you guessed it.....Off the cliff thats on top of the mountain,that starts at the sea floor,entering the abyss
Cheers great job!
Ding, ding, ding. Euro is sucking and the London girls are on.
Should be getting close to a false flag soon. something will have to divert attention from this,this cyclone of shitstorm on the economic financial terrorism front.
Good luck on your flight to safety clueless,planes,markets can and do crash(i mean look at all the CIA Coke planes that crash to name a few
step back a little bit and look at the moving averages 07 to 11....they are about 13% lower.
Not good for the pension funds 8% return and shows how worthless QE is.
Sooooo, we are in trouble? Food and water shortages, riots in the streets, martial law?
Serioulsy what does post crash America look like?
SP500 bounce is possible from current oversold levels due to Thursday sell off.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Harry W, missed your postings, and several elders. I'll be looking to possibly pick something up over the next few days. Now, we may need Splading to inject some runners.
Twice a Day
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