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Guest Post: Where Is Our Oil Price Collapse?
From Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform
Where Is Our Oil Price Collapse?
Make no mistake about it, without plentiful, cheap, and easy to access oil, the United States of America would descend into chaos and collapse. The fantasies painted by “green” energy dreamers only serve to divert the attention of the non critical thinking masses from the fact our sprawling suburban hyper technological society would come to a grinding halt in a matter of days without the 18 to 19 million barrels per day needed to run this ridiculous reality show. Delusional Americans think the steaks, hot dogs and pomegranates in their grocery stores magically appear on the shelves, the thirty electronic gadgets that rule their lives are created out of thin air by elves and the gasoline they pump into their mammoth SUVs is their God given right. The situation was already critical in 2005 when the Hirsch Report concluded:
“The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.”
In the six years since this report there has been unprecedented oil price volatility as the world has reached the undulating plateau of peak cheap oil. The viable mitigation options on the demand and supply side were not pursued. The head in the sand hope for the best option was chosen. The government mandated options, ethanol and solar, have been absolute and utter disasters as billions of taxpayer dollars have been squandered and company after company goes bankrupt. The added benefit has been sky high corn prices, dwindling supplies and revolutions around the world due to soaring food prices. The last time the country went into recession in 2008, the price of oil plunged from $140 a barrel to $30 a barrel in the space of six months. I’d classify that as volatility. We’ve clearly entered a second recession in the last six months. So we should be getting the benefit of collapsing oil prices.
But, a funny thing happened on the way to another oil price collapse. It didn’t happen. WTI Crude is trading for $87 a barrel, up 23% since January 1. Unleaded gas prices are up 54% in the last year and 43% since January 1. Worldwide oil pricing is not based on WTI crude but Brent crude, selling for $113 per barrel, only down 10% from its April high of $125. The U.S. and Europe consume 40% of all the oil in the world on a daily basis. Multiple European countries have been in recession for the last nine months. The U.S. economy has been in free fall for six months.
Some short term factors will continue to support higher oil prices. The Chinese continue to fill their strategic petroleum reserve, Japan is still relying on diesel generators for electricity post-tsunami, and the Middle East is developing a love affair with the air conditioner. But, it’s the long term factors that will lead to much higher oil prices for myopic oblivious Americans.
John Hussman describes the situation on the ground today based upon six economic conditions presently in effect:
There are certainly a great number of opinions about the prospect of recession, but the evidence we observe at present has 100% sensitivity (these conditions have always been observed during or just prior to each U.S. recession) and 100% specificity (the only time we observe the full set of these conditions is during or just prior to U.S. recessions).
With 40% of the world in or near recession, how come oil prices are still so high and much higher than last year, when the economies in Europe and the U.S. were expanding? The number of vehicle miles driven in the U.S. is still below the level reached 43 months ago and at the same level as early 2005. The price of a barrel of oil in early 2005 was $42. The U.S. is using the same amount of oil, but the price is up 112%. It seems the U.S. isn’t calling the shots when it comes to the worldwide supply/demand equation.
It would probably be a surprise to most people that U.S. oil consumption today is at the same level it was in 1997 and is 10% lower than the peak reached in 2005. This is not a reflection of increased efficiency or Americans gravitating towards smaller vehicles with better mileage. Americans are still addicted to their SUVs and gas guzzling luxury automobiles. It’s a reflection of a U.S. economy that has been in a downward spiral since 2005.
| 1996 | 18,476.15 | 3.89 % |
| 1997 | 18,774.07 | 1.61 % |
| 1998 | 18,946.01 | 0.92 % |
| 1999 | 19,603.83 | 3.47 % |
| 2000 | 19,717.92 | 0.58 % |
| 2001 | 19,772.60 | 0.28 % |
| 2002 | 19,834.31 | 0.31 % |
| 2003 | 20,144.82 | 1.57 % |
| 2004 | 20,833.01 | 3.42 % |
| 2005 | 20,924.36 | 0.44 % |
| 2006 | 20,803.93 | -0.58 % |
| 2007 | 20,818.37 | 0.07 % |
| 2008 | 19,563.33 | -6.03 % |
| 2009 | 18,810.01 | -3.85 % |
If the U.S. isn’t driving oil demand in the world, then why are prices going up? There are three main factors:
- Dramatic increase in demand from China and other developing countries.
- A plunging U.S. Dollar
- Peak oil has arrived
Surging Developing World Demand
The Energy Information Administration issued their latest forecast and it does not bode well for lower prices:
Despite continued concerns over the pace of the global economic recovery, particularly in developed countries, the US Energy Information Administration expects worldwide oil consumption to increase this year and next spurred by demand in developing countries. US oil consumption, however, is forecast to contract from a year ago. Worldwide oil demand, led by China, will increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2011 to average 88.19 million b/d and by 1.6 million b/d in 2012, outpacing average global demand growth of 1.3 million b/d from 1998-2007, before the onset of the global economic downturn.
China is now consuming over 9 million barrels per day. This is up from an average of 7 million barrels per day in 2006. Platts, a global energy analyst, put China’s 2010 figures at 8.5 million barrels per day, up 11.43% from the previous year. The forecast for China’s crude throughput in 2011 is an average of 9.24 million barrels per day up 8.5% from 2010. In the first seven months of this year, total crude throughput stood at average of 8.95 million barrels per day.
Standard Chartered Bank predicts that, by the year 2020, China will overtake all of Europe as the second largest consumer of oil in the world, and should catch up to the U.S. by the year 2030 as China’s demand continues to rise while U.S. demand is expected to be flat. Chinese crude imports grew 17.5% in 2010 to 4.79 million barrels per day. China is importing 55% of its oil today versus 40% in 2004.
China’s oil consumption per capita has increased over 350% since the early 1980s to an estimated 2.7 barrels per year in 2011. Consumption per capita has risen nearly 100% in just the past decade. Oil consumption per capita in the U.S. currently ranks among the top industrialized nations in the world at 25 barrels per year. However, today’s consumption levels are approximately 20% lower than they were in 1979. The chart below paints a picture of woe for the United States and the world. China overtook the United States in auto sales in 2009. They now sell approximately 15 million new vehicles per year. India sells approximately 2 million new vehicles per year. The U.S. sells just over 12 million new vehicles per year. In China and India there are approximately 6 car owners per 100 people. In the U.S. there are 85 car owners per 100 people.
They call China, India and the rest of the developing world - Developing – because they will be rapidly expanding their consumption of goods, services and food. There will certainly be bumps along the way, as China is experiencing now, but the consumption of oil by the developing world will plow relentlessly higher. China isn’t the only emerging country to show big increases in per capita consumption. The growth in consumption for several other countries far outpaces China. Consumption per capita in Malaysia has nearly quadrupled since the mid-1960s. Consumption in Thailand and Brazil has more than doubled to roughly 5.7 barrels and 4.8 barrels per year, respectively.
Developed countries, especially those in Western Europe, have experienced substantial declines in oil consumption. Today’s per capita consumption in Sweden is roughly 12 barrels per year, down from 25 barrels per year in the mid-1970s. France, Japan, Norway and U.K. all use less oil on a per capita basis than they did in the 1970s. These countries have been able to drive down the consumption of oil by taxing gasoline at an excessive level.
Americans pay 43 cents in taxes out of the $3.70 they pay at the pump for a gallon of gasoline. A driver in the UK is paying $4 per gallon in taxes out of the $9 per gallon cost. Gasoline costs between $8 and $9 per gallon across Europe today. The extreme level of gas taxes certainly reduces car sizes, consumption and traffic. Too bad the mad socialists across Europe spent the taxes on expanding their welfare states and promising even more to their populations. Maybe a $6 per gallon tax will do the trick. Forcing Americans to drive less by doubling the gas tax is a quaint idea, but it is too late in the game. Europe is still made up of small towns and cities with the populations still fairly consolidated. Biking, walking and small rail travel is easy and feasible. The sprawling suburban enclaves that proliferate across the American countryside, dotted by thousands of malls and McMansion communities, accessible only by automobiles, make it impossible to implement a rational energy efficient model for moving forward. We cannot reverse 60 years of irrationality. Even without higher gas taxes, the price of gasoline will move relentlessly higher due to the stealth tax of currency debasement.
A Plunging US Dollar
The US dollar has fallen 15% versus a basket of worldwide currencies (DXY) since February 2009. This is amazing considering that 57% of the index weighting is the Euro. If you haven’t noticed, Europe is a basket case on the verge of economic disintegration. The US imports a net 9.4 million barrels of oil per day, or 49% of our daily consumption. Our largest suppliers are:
- Canada – 2.6 million barrels per day
- Mexico – 1.3 million barrels per day
- Saudi Arabia – 1.1 million barrels per day
- Nigeria – 1.0 million barrels per day
- Venezuela – 1.0 million barrels per day
- Russia – 600,000 barrels per day
- Algeria – 500,000 barrels per day
- Iraq – 400,000 barrels per day
These eight countries account for over 70% of our daily oil imports. You hear the “experts” on CNBC declare that our oil supply situation is secure because close to 60% of our daily usage is sourced from North America. The presumption is that Canada and Mexico are somehow under our control. There is one problem with this storyline. US oil production peaked in 1971 and relentlessly declines as M. King Hubbert predicted it would. Mexico will cease to be a supplier to the U.S. by 2015 as their Cantarell oil field is in collapse. Most of the oil supplied from Canada is from their tar sands. Expansion of these fields is difficult as it takes tremendous amounts of natural gas and water to extract the oil.
The rest of the countries on the list dislike us, hate us, or are in constant danger of implosion. When the Neo-Cons on Fox News try to convince you that Iraq has been a huge success and certainly worth the $3 trillion of national wealth expended, along with 4,500 dead and 32,000 wounded soldiers, you might want to keep in mind that Iraq was exporting 795,000 barrels of oil per day to the U.S. in 2001 when the evil dictator was in charge. Today, we are getting 415,000 barrels per day. Dick Cheney was never good at long term strategic planning.
We better plant more corn, as our supply situation is far from stable. Maybe we can install solar panels from Obama’s Solyndra factory on the roofs of the 65 Chevy Volts that were sold in the U.S. this year, to alleviate our oil supply problem. The reliability and stability of our oil supply takes second place to the price increases caused by Ben Bernanke and his printing press. The average American housewife driving her 1.5 children in her enormous two and a half ton Chevy Tahoe or gigantic Toyota Sequoia two miles to baseball practice doesn’t comprehend why it is costing her $100 to fill the 26 gallon tank. If she listens to the brain dead mainstream media pundits, she’ll conclude that Big Oil is to blame. The real reason is Big Finance in conspiracy with Big Government.
Ben Bernanke is responsible for Americans paying $4 a gallon for gasoline. Zero interest rates, printing money out of thin air to buy $2 trillion of mortgage and Treasury bonds, and propping up insolvent criminal banks across the globe have one purpose – to deflate the value of the U.S. dollar. The rulers of the American Empire realize they can never repay the debts they have accumulated. They have chosen to default through debasement. It’s an insidious and immoral method of defaulting on your obligations. Let’s look at from the perspective of our two biggest oil suppliers.
A barrel of oil cost $40 a barrel in early 2009. The U.S. dollar has declined 30% versus the Canadian dollar since early 2009. The U.S. dollar has shockingly declined 20% versus the Mexican Peso since early 2009. How could the mighty USD decline 20% against the currency of a 3rd world country on the verge of being a failed state? Ask Ben Bernanke. Our lenders can’t do much about the continuing debasement of our currency, but our oil suppliers can. They will raise the price of oil in proportion to our currency devaluation. Since Bernanke’s only solution is continuous debasement, the price of oil will relentlessly rise.
Peak Oil Has Arrived
“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD. At present, investment in oil production is only beginning to pick up, with the result that production could reach a prolonged plateau. By 2030, the world will require production of 118 MBD, but energy producers may only be producing 100 MBD unless there are major changes in current investment and drilling capacity.” - 2010 Joint Operating Environment Report
We’ve arrived at the point where demand has begun to outpace supply and even the onset of another worldwide recession will not assuage this fact. World oil supply has peaked just below 89 million barrels per day. Supply has since fallen to 87.5 million barrels per day, as Libyan supply was completely removed from world markets. The International Energy Agency is already forecasting worldwide demand to reach 90 million barrels per day in the second half of 2011 and reach 92 million barrels per day in 2012. The IEA warns that “just at the time when demand is expected to recover, physical limits on production capacity could lead to another wave of price increases, in a cyclical pattern that is not new to the world oil market.”
The world is trapped in an inescapable conundrum. As supply dwindles, prices increase, causing global economies to contract, and temporarily causing a drop in prices, except the lows are higher each time. The drill, drill, drill ideologues do nothing but confuse and mislead the easily led masses. We have 2% of the world’s oil reserves and consume more than 20% of the daily output. We consume 7 billion barrels of oil per year.
Drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska and areas formerly off limits in the Outer Continental Shelf will not close the supply gap. The amount of recoverable oil in the Arctic coastal plain is estimated to be between 5.7 billion and 16 billion barrels. This could supply as little as a year’s worth of oil. And it will take 10 years to produce any oil from this supply. The OCS has only slightly more recoverable oil at an estimated 18 billion barrels and the BP Gulf Oil disaster showed how easy this oil is to access safely. The new over hyped energy savior is shale gas. The cheerleaders in the natural gas industry claim that we have four Saudi Arabias worth of natural gas in the U.S. This is nothing but PR talking points to convince the masses that we can easily adapt. The amount of shale gas that can be economically produced is far less than the amounts being touted by the industry. The wells deplete rapidly and the environmental damage has been well documented. And last but certainly not least, we have the abiotic oil believers that convince themselves the wells will refill despite the fact that there is not one instance of an oil well refilling once it is depleted.
I wrote an article called Peak Denial About Peak Oil exactly one year ago when gas was selling for $2.60 a gallon. I railed at the short sightedness of politicians and citizens alike for ignoring a calamitous crisis that was directly before their eyes. Just like our accumulation of $4 billion per day in debt, peak oil is simply a matter of math. We cannot take on ever increasing amounts of debt in order to live above our means without collapsing our economic system. We cannot expect to run our energy intensive world with a depleting energy source. There is no amount of spin and PR that can change the math. Un-payable levels of debt and dwindling supplies of oil will merge into a perfect storm over the next ten years to permanently change our world. The change will be traumatic, horrible, bloody and a complete surprise to the non-critical thinking public.
“In the longer run, unless we take serious steps to prepare for the day that we can no longer increase production of conventional oil, we are faced with the possibility of a major economic shock—and the political unrest that would ensue.” – Dr. James Schlesinger – former US Energy Secretary, 16th November 2005
We were warned. We failed to heed the warnings. If we had begun making the dramatic changes to our society 5 to 10 years ago, we may have been able to partially alleviate the pain and suffering ahead. Instead we spent our national treasure fighting Wars on Terror and bailing out criminal bankers. Converting truck and bus fleets to natural gas; expanding the use of safe nuclear power; utilizing wind, geothermal, and solar where economically feasible; buying more fuel efficient vehicles; and creating more localized communities supported by light rail with easy access to bike and walking options, would have allowed a more gradual shift to a less energy intensive society.
We’ve done nothing to prepare for the onset of peak oil. Until this foreseeable crisis hits with its full force like a Category 5 hurricane, Americans will continue to fill up their M1 tank sized, leased SUVs, tweet about Lady Gaga’s latest stunt, and tune in to this week’s episode of Jersey Shore. Meanwhile, economic stagnation, catastrophe and wars for oil are darkening the skies on our horizon.
“Dependence on imported oil, particularly from the Middle East, has become the elephant in the foreign policy living room, an overriding strategic consideration composed of a multitude of issues. …. Taken in whole, the National Energy Policy does not offer a compelling solution to the growing danger of foreign oil dependence. … Future military efforts to secure the oil supply pose tremendous challenges due to the number of potential crisis areas. ….. Economic stagnation or catastrophe lurk close at hand, to be triggered by another embargo, collapse of the Saudi monarchy, or civil disorder in any of a dozen nations.”- America’s Strategic Imperative A “Manhattan Project” for Energy
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long oil...
(The) Long Emergency.
I'm just reading that book now! A lot of good info in there.
That sounds like an excerpt from and upcoming speech by President Obama.
In the real world and for those without a carbon agenda there is a Manhattan Project underway, it's called the Alberta Oil Sands, which you dismiss in one short sentence. You also spend an entire sentence dismissing Nat Gas.
how come there's no dinosaur bones in that sand?
would make for a nice side income: chew toyz Americans would buy for there dogs!
.. short society
This would have been very funny, if it were not so sadly correct...
"The human condition will never improve as long as humans are involved." --- Precious
Long whale oil
Long (Live) Big Brother
short current leadership but don't short society. Evolution will ensure progress on feeble humankind.
whatever-ism, political rhetoric, FEMA, NASA, etc are no match for mother nature. Humans have masters of other animals, but not yet mastered mother nature's wrath.
Mother Nature's wrath pales next to the wasting of Father Time.
Iam going to stick my head out on this one. I feel the huge gas run up in the last of bush(2)years had as much to do with the collapse in Housing as did the banking/underwrighters. It takes a lot of cash to drive in from the 'burbs at $4.00++ a gallon, cash that drained joe six pack.
It's anecdotal, but I saw an interview with a couple who bought as much house as they could afford, but to do that they had to go way out on the suburban fringe. When the high cost of gas kicked in under Bush, it sent their budget into a spiral....then came a major car breakdown...then one of them lost their job....then they lost their house.
This was not an atypical story.
again...there is no such thing as peak "cheap" oil, and if there were, it happened in the 1970s. That is when production of cheap oil hit its maxima and we started going offshore.
Peak oil is here...look at the consumption numbers. Plain as day even in the absence of firm production figures which don't mix in kerogen and other bullshit liquids.
Sustained global recession is what I said would occur at global peak oil, and I said this around 6 or 7 years ago. Not a catastrophe, not an apocalypse, just sustained global recession. That's what we're seeing. The financial edifice predicated upon growth is what threatens to collapse. But there's still 80+mbpd right now of production and the US is going to be OK if we retreat to 1970s consumption numbers. We'll have less iShit around us, but so the fuck what...our lives now suck anyhow.
We won't have the surplus wealth going forward to afford silly stupid shit like the ADA or diversity, but good riddance.
You are correct.
But i'll bet you never thought that Greenspan would engineer that sup-prime global recession. To make sure that none of the economies of the major oil consuming nations came out much better than the others. CDOs were a master stroke. That and making sure that every house in America had been over borrowed against
A couple of other things: at this point of peak oil, you can stop reading the production/consumption numbers as having anything to do with reality. They'll serve to keep the non-peak oil types from excessive perspiration.
Soon the militaries of the world will announce that they are forced to confiscate every drop of oil that they have not already confiscated.
After that, everything will be fine.
Expensive oil is just making alternatives (batteries, natural gas) more feasible. It sucks for right now, but I think we'll be a lot better off in 10 years.
exactly. even OPAC knew that so they don't want the prices too high to ignite innovation. except US petrodollar will tank because control of oil will become less valuable. solar, wind, thermo, nuclear are not centrally controllable.
Only two small things. Batteries are not a source of energy. They can store energy, but that energy must first come from a primary source. Natural gas is fine, but think of the energy cost required to convert millions of vehicles etc over to natural gas.
Good point about batteries. What I meant was that we'd be able to plug them in and draw from different power sources (nuclear, natural gas, coal) instead of relying solely on oil. I think that Prius plug in is a genius idea. Most people travel, what, 15 miles a day? That's close to the amount the battery can power it for.
"silly stupid shit like the ADA or diversity"
As President of the local chapter of the American Association for the Advancement of Differently-Abled Lesbians of Color, I take exception to that. STRONG exception!
.
everything you need to know -----> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYuLjGQQ-jg
Jeff Rubin, the former Chief Economist of CIBC World Markets.. did fund the Oil Push in Canada.. BEFORE!! everyone jumped on the Band Wagon.. so he is anything but anti-oil.
this was a great video. and this is the first time i am thanking you for anything rather than my usual expression of disdain for your generally anti-semitic comments.
good video thanks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnB3p9iN_Jc&list=FLbRZZAixeFXZfqszvKisEdQ&index=3&feature=plpp
I dont hate Jews.. any more than I hate America.. I HATE THE LOBBY WHORE GOVERNMENTS OF BOTH!!
so if I hate Jews..
1. dont tell my Partner (in a multi-family office) or his Family.
2. you might as well say that ALL 400,000 Jews that were protesting in Isreal are self-hating Jews as well.
I dont have issues with Jews.. I have issues with Isreal's Lobby!
You must be new and not know me very well, which is fine.. it happens..
but if you call me a Bigot! I will stoke the fire to rub you the wrong way.
as opposed to you asking me what my thoughts really are.. in which case I would say I dont care if you are a green and purple people eater who likes the devil.. if you are willing to help me get rid of the Lobby Whores! we can respect each other at a distance, your business is between you and your maker.. just like my business is between me and my maker.. considering you are a Jew.. it is the same fucking guy! minus Jesus (not the mexican one who fixes cars or the peurto rican who bowls http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xTqP58o1iw ).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKSb9dOjQto&feature=feedu
US cable tells of Israel's 'harsh measures'
Israel having her problem of her own with massive youth protests over hyperinflation:
http://cryptome.org/info/israel-protest2/israel-protest2.htm
palstine statehood UN vote coming up this month too.
world is turning against status quo.
As you read Christopher Bollyn‘s E-Book you will understand just exactly who and what foreign political interest actually attacked the WTC complex on September 11, 2001.
These foreign political interests with their traitors (George Washington referred to these types as tools and dupes) inside our U.S. political establishment attempting to deceive the world in order to pursue their foreign-sponsored political will and expansionist policies in the Middle East.
As you read, the real perpetrators of the 9-11 attacks will become apparent, and they will be identified.
The motive will become clear, and you will see this peg as a natural fit. You will understand that the US is a country filled with ambitious Nazis, corrupted Fascists, and deluded citizens (in positions of political power, office holders, judges, the press, and yes... bloggers like SmokeyQuinn) who devote themselves to the foreign nation, and have sacrificed the interests of their own country with the appearance of a virtuous sense of obligation.
You may even find yourself supporting a new investigation into the attacks of 9-11.
So what else should one do when he or she finds that their own government has attempted to deceive them, in order to pursue unofficial policies through lies, fraud, deception, and cover up.
For Christopher Bollyn and honest people, the Scriptures are clear. /And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather expose them./ (Ephesians 5:11.
http://www.bollyn.com/public/Solving_9-11_-_The_Deception_That_Changed_The_World.pdf
Do some serious reading… quit being 9/11 dupes… or worse… a person who assists and protects those wanted in connection with a crime… an accessary after the fact .
How is it that only person on the planet benefitted from 9/11?
I refer to George W. Bush (and his poll numbers). It was as if the Wizard of Oz had unexpectedly given him a brain. Or a reasonable facsimile.
I kind of think that most of the ephoria in jacking up the price of oil is in the price.
Remember we went from 20 to +150. 40 to 50 is still more than a double. 60 is a tripple.
So demand is falling in America. Possibly so much so that the price of oil will colllpase too.
U don't get it, do you? Demand MUST fall because supply is falling! We cannot consume more than is produced!
anyone junking Travis on this might as well junk me too..
Travis has a HORRIBLE bedside manner when it comes to Oil.. BUT!!! he is right on the money..
WE ARE!! AS A PLANET RUNNING OUT OF LITE SWEET CRUDE!!! PERIOD!!! THATS IT! FACT!!
which equates to affordable oil..
there are ALL KINDS OF OIL ON THE PLANET LEFT!!
THEY ARE EXPENSIVE TO GET AT!! unlike lite sweet crude.
Now Travis will get down and dirty with some technical stuff and proper word usage.. but his heart is ultimately in the right place.
no need to be mad! the guy is trying to help YOU! (whoever you are) to be more prepared for what is REALLY COMING!! like it or not!
No one is happy this shit is happening on our watch, NO ONE! including Travis or myself! so be mad at the people fucking YOU!!
not the people who are sharing the truth with YOU!
All truth passes through three stages.
First it is emitted as propaganda by the government and it's corporate controllers, and accepted some.
Next those with knowledge of the scam being propagated answer the propaganda, and the early adopters realize it's a con.
Finally the masses are infected with the original scam, and it is adopted as an article of common sense that inspires them to rally against anyone who would dare to deny the con.
All truth passes through three stages.
First it is emitted as propaganda by the government and it's corporate controllers, and accepted some.
Next those with knowledge of the scam being propagated answer the propaganda, and the early adopters realize it's a con.
Finally the masses are infected with the original scam, and it is adopted as an article of common sense that inspires them to rally against anyone who would dare to deny the con.
Demand is still rising in Asia
No matter what you imagine, prices will determine demand.
When Walmart revises it's Xmas orders, Asian demand will stop rising.
Demand in Asia is a follow through of their incredible population growth.
No one is surprised that Asian demand and prosperity will be the last to succumb to world supply.
Demand in India and China is due to inflation.
They are not true demand but centrally controlled demand boost with easy money.
US is in the shitter
EU is about to come apart
China and Brazil looking to tighten money supply to control inflation
where would demand growth come from? Africa?
"Demand in India and China is due to inflation."
And most inflation is too much money chasing too little supply of goods and services.
And too much money is the profits from exporting to Walmart.
"It would probably be a surprise to most people that U.S. oil consumption today is at the same level it was in 1997 and is 10% lower than the peak reached in 2005. This is not a reflection of increased efficiency or Americans gravitating towards smaller vehicles with better mileage. Americans are still addicted to their SUVs and gas guzzling luxury automobiles. It’s a reflection of a U.S. economy that has been in a downward spiral since 2005"
Imagine how the economy could benefit from increased efficiency. We could drive the same miles to work or to the mall, our trade imbalance would drastically improve, which would give our currency the boost it lacks.
The U.S. dollar started its slide in the '70s. Many attribute that to Nixon closing the gold window. The root cause is that we needed to start borrowing from the world to buy our energy. And the gold standard had to go to allow us to exploit our reserve currency status. Our energy deficit is the root of our financial and economic problems.
A stiff tax would have an immediate effect of slowing the economy. But longer term it would force efficiency. Taxes stay in the country. Taxes stay in the country. Taxes stay in the fucking country. Repeat that until you understand the concept!
gh
Stiff taxes are taken by politicians and given to ethanol and solar companies that go bankrupt. The stiff taxes vaporized.
What was that that moron from Texas said recently?
"Corporations are people." What he meant was that corporations are made up of people. People do the work, get paid, and spend money.
Corporations may go bankrupt, but that is just because the money is not in THAT place anymore. The money doesn't dissappear, it just moves on.
Companys go bankrupt, but people learn and move on. Learn, and move to the next idea/invention. Life is a process.
Taxes stay in the country. Taxes stay in the country.
gh
Wrong moron; that was the one from Mass-of-two-shits.
Lmao
Keep muttering that to yourself, dumbfuck
You're funny
"What he meant was that corporations are made up of people"
Technically you are wrong:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_personhood
Imagine how the economy could benefit from increased efficiency and reduced consumption.
Fight Global Terror: Ride a Bike.
don't understand Jevon's Paradox, do ya?
Look, cretins, consumption is falling because it HAS TO. We CANNOT GLOBALLY CONTINUE to consume MORE because there ISN'T THE SUPPLY TO CONSUME
You really are a dumbfuck. When was the last time you went to fill up your gas tank and there was no supply to consume? That may happen sometime in the future, but for now the reason consumption is down is due to the recession and high oil prices.
You really should stick to contributing to topics where you have a clue about what you are talking. I can't help with the topic you seek, but in energy matters, you really should stick to your knitting and you maybe you will learn something.
When was the last time you went to fill up your gas tank and there was no supply to consume? That may happen sometime in the future.....
*LOL*
Now that is a stunning display of ignorance. And since there is plenty of cash in my neighborhood ATM, obviously America doesn't have a debt problem, either...maybe sometime in the future....
*LOL*
idiot. Given your frequent defense of the Republican party, your idiocy on display tonight isn't so surprising.
If Tyler posts an article about tinker toys, chippendale dancers or Faux News talking points, we'll ask for your contribution. Otherwise, STFU.
They don't stay in the country. They are stolen by the banksters. It's a bottomless pit.
Look at a chart of oil priced in gold - there's your deflationary collapse.
Right until it does not. Gasoline was $2.00 shortly after obuzzard took office. It will be there again.
that means a crash in oil.... AND GOLD
"The problem with gold is that it's just too expensive to melt into bullets." - Precious
Tungsten makes much better bullets than either gold or lead due to its density and melting point.
There is still loads and loads of oil. However the Exons of the world want a higher price:
Globalists want higher prices because the plebes are too uppity. In their ideal world the plebes work in condensed cities in tiny closet size apartments having 1 child max. Yes they may get 1 decent vacation in their lifetime, but work will keep them occupied paying for very expensive energy so they can feel better about cutting their carbon emissions and saving mother gaia.They dont want people to develop self sustaining lifestyles, they dont want people farming, raising animals, feeding themselves. No they want you dependent on the very expensive system barely giving you time to breath.
Ofcourse you will get your bread and circus just as long as you cede all of your natural rights, sentiment for liberty and self determination away.
The Oligarchs will then have succeeded in making us complete serfs again so they can rule the world as they see fit.
O'kay Moron,
Do you want all those city people moving out to where you are? Shut the fuck up!
Of course there is 'Loads of oil' left. There will always be plenty of oil available - maybe as much as 50% of the original total global reserves still remain untapped right now. The issue is how can we get at it, and at what cost.
'Peak Oil' refers to flow rate, not in-ground reserves. Total global annual production of Oil peaked several years ago and we have never recovered that peak. It is vanishingly unlikely that we ever will. Since all commodities are priced 'At the margin' this means that either (i) The global economy stops growing and, in fact, declines, thus reducing consumption as fast as (or faster than) total production falls - thereby stabilising or even reducing oil prices, or (ii) Crude prices will rise to eliminate the marginal excess of demand over supply.
In the latter, more likely, case the least productive uses of Oil will be eliminated first as prices rise, then gradually ever more activities that depend on Oil will be priced out of existence.
Users of Oil for productive activities such as agriculture, manufacturing, public mass transit etc. will likely be able to pay more for Oil than a suburbanite driving a 3 ton SUV to the store to buy a carton of milk. This suburbanite, and his amazingly unproductive use of gas, will be one of the first to find that he has been priced out of the Oil market. No Global Conspiracy of Oligarchs are required to reduce him to penury, market economics will do that.
+85mbpd
Actuallly, +72 mmbpd, the rest ain't oil...
73.7 mbbpd
Whats a million bpd between friends?
Edit: EIA gives your figure, JODI comes in at 71.5 mmbpd.... check out http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7949
Flak, you are right.
Published oil production figures today are more unstable than George W. Bush at a picnic with a tub of iced beer.
Right now google / Wikipedia / Memory Hole are probably altering the production figures for the 2nd half of the past decade to make it look like we are swimming in oil. Edited by Roger Ailes and Karl Rove, no doubt.
And from what I read here, plenty of ZH readers will believe it.
How do you measure "costs"? In US dollars? No problemo -- print some more. Or you could cut military spending by 75% or more. That would give you more dollars to spend plus you'd get the military oil too.
If Europeans can spend $10/gal for gas and diesel, so can Americans. They may need to realign some of their priorities, but they should have done that long ago anyway! $10/gal opens up a lot of deep oil to profitable exploitation.
In the longer run, ground transport fuel and generation of electricity must be and can be weaned from the petroleum tit.
"How do you measure "costs"? In US dollars? No problemo -- print some more."
That's the point. The Arabs know that the US is just printing more paper every day, that's why they keep asking for more and more of that silly green paper for the same amount of Oil. Someday soon, they won't accept the paper at all.
"If Europeans can spend $10/gal for gas and diesel, so can Americans."
Ummm No. Europeans can spend $10 for gas because it is, in most cases, optional. Remember that almost every European city was founded hundreds (If not thousands) of years before the advent of personal private transportation. The population patterns and transport infrastructure of European countries are still, for the most part, laid out on the foundations of pre-industrial energy useage patterns.
For maybe 90%+ of Europeans, it is possible to live a comfortable life without ever owning a car. Populations centred closely around towns and cities, combined with affordable, convenient mass-transit make $10 gas less of a problem. Most commutes are short and even if undertaken in a car, less costly than the typical commute of American non-city dwellers.
In my view, America reaped great efficiencies by being the first major country to develop its infrastructure entirely around the new invention of the automobile. For example, expoiting low property prices by building out-of-town megastores enabled retail costs to be kept down, while mass car ownership meant that consumers could access these remote locations cheaply.
Conversely, America will therefor suffer most when this cheap energy stream starts to contract and the previously negligible costs of driving 50 miles to get somewhere become prohibitive. It is, in short impossible for America to adapt to $10 gas because it has built an entire national residential, commercial and retail infrastructure that depends entirely on $2 gas.
$10/gal is only about 2.5 times more than I'm spending right now. I drive about 1,500 miles per month. My car gets 35 mpg. That's less than $200 per month. If had to pay $10/gal the cost would go up to $430 per month. I don't see that it is much of a problem. If it was, I could car pool or get a motorcycle. I spend probably $200 a month just on wine. If I drank Gallo instead, I could probably drop that expense by 70%.
If you can't afford to live in the surburbs, move to the city and closer to work and public transport. Just like the Europeans.
Come on now - get real. Drinking Gallo? FFS! I'm sure you'd walk to work before you'd stoop to that.
At 1,500 miles a month, I'd say you are on the low side of average, but I could be wrong. For comparison purposes, I drive maybe 200 miles per month. Gas could go to $50 a gallon and I would not care. That is the difference.
"If you can't afford to live in the surburbs, move to the city and closer to work and public transport."
Well now, that's the problem isn't it? There is a reason why the average shoebox sized apartment in, say, the UK costs twice what a 4,000- sqf house in the US costs.
What you are suggesting is that the US abandons the cheap suburban housing model and adopts a geographically dense, expensive (Manhattan style expensive) model. Who's going to pay for that?
Actually urban housing in the US is not necessarily more expensive than surburban housing (Manhattan and San Francisco excepted). Most people live there because they prefer the surburban environment. There is a cost for this, of course. The people that are on the edge of not making it due to low wages probably will need to make some changes. There are multiple possibilities. Moving closer to their job is one of them. Many of these same people are ones that have the least economical cars -- pickups and large SUVs are especially popular. The American commute model is one of bumper to bumper, 10 mpg, single occupant vehicles. There's lots of room for improvement, enough to make up the jump to $10 gasoline. Americans don't like walking as much as you Brits either. They will normally drive their car to get dinner at the drive-through fast food restaurant even if it's only a block or two away.
Over half of my miles are for recreational purposes. If necessary most of them could be curtailed.
You would be forced to care because at $50 a gallon the fucking industrialized world would be crumbling.
I have prepared for that eventuality.
The dollar would probably be worth 10% of what its worth now, so it wouldn't matter much unless you're on a fixed income.
You are right.
Gas cost is not only at pump, but all goods. Most are shipped several hundres miles from where produced.
Not too far fetched.
This campaign has been around for awhile.
If you want a peek at the rabbit hole, just investigate how private farms were taken over by corporations.
In a world of peak oil and peak gold, will the Gold-Oil ratio continue to hover around 10-20, or will it decline as the (useful) oil is used up, but the gold is not? Currently we have $1882/$112 or 16.8 barrels/ozt.
Got black gold bitchez?
It's cheaper for WTI oil. $1880/$86.65 or 21.7 barrels/oz
As the price of oil goes up and as drilling technology continues to improve as it has been, you can expect that the amount of economically available oil will increase.
Most oil is useful.
No...
Rate is what matters, not reserves. Drilling technology has not really improved, seismic analysis has.
As the dollar debases, gas prices rise. What you don't see is the stealth robbery of the government syphoning money from your wallet. During high Down Jones days, the USD is south. Wall street is shifting monies to shift gains into special interest groups responsible in completing the central planners charter. In your case, get back into debt and buy a smaller vehicle. As the Government continues to mandate our purchasing choices, the unions rely on the demand to build the products the State decides. When the consumer decides not to purchase a government product, the unions go on strike masked under fair wage protest. Governments create another crisis and explain the dire need to borrow more taxpayer monies to bail out a TBTF icon. Wash, rinse and repeat.
Corporate Incentives for Hybrids and Alternative Cars
This is not rocket science, just common sense.
Thanks for that "bigger picture" on key facts.
Always thinking about: "what happens if we'll face (publically) that peak-oil is around the corner, too".
Turbo engaged.
Peak oil IS around the corner...the corner BEHIND US.
ALL that is occurring, I predicted like almost a decade ago...it's a FORESEEABLE consequence of peak oil and an energy theory of economics. I wrote this shit over and over on TF and over and over again here.
Nonsense! Just because you wrote a bunch of fucking nonsense over and over at TF and here too doesn't make it true. Peak oil is a Power Elite meme to keep the proletariat enslaved in their respective corrals. Only an idiot or someone that works as a shill for the PE would be so persistent in their posts.
http://www.gasresources.net/index.htm
http://www.viewzone.com/abioticoilx.html
You conspiracy nuts sound like parrots. You glom onto a phrase and then you just keep repeating it over and over. First of all peak oil is not a meme, since memes spread throughout society like a virus and if anything people are becoming even more ignorant about resource depletion, not more informed (evidence your own cluless post). Second pull up Google Earth. Notice that earth is round. Notice that crust on earth is only about 10-15 miles thick and that oil can only form in a very limited strata within that crust. Hence it is finite. If you have any math or science or engineering under your belt you would realize this simple fact. The easy oil is gone and it aint coming back for another couple hundred million years. Get it now? I tried to make it really simple so even a cave idiot could understand.
You don't know your ass from fat meat or have any "math or science or engineering under your belt" or under your hat either.
"An introduction to the modern petroleum science, and to the Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins.
J. F. Kenney
Russian Academy of Sciences - Joint Institute of The Physics of the Earth.
Gas Resources Corporation, 11811 North Freeway, Houston, TX 77060, U.S.A.
The following articles take up, from different perspectives, the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins. Because that subject is one of which most persons outside the former U.S.S.R. are not familiar, a short synopsis of it and of its provenance and history, are given now.
1. The essence of the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins.
The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is an extensive body of scientific knowledge which covers the subjects of the chemical genesis of the hydrocarbon molecules which comprise natural petroleum, the physical processes which occasion their terrestrial concentration, the dynamical processes of the movement of that material into geological reservoirs of petroleum, and the location and economic production of petroleum. The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins recognizes that petroleum is a primordial material of deep origin which has been erupted into the crust of the Earth. In short, and bluntly, petroleum is not a “fossil fuel” and has no intrinsic connection with dead dinosaurs (or any other biological detritus) “in the sediments” (or anywhere else).
The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of petroleum is based upon rigorous scientific reasoning, consistent with the laws of physics and chemistry, as well as upon extensive geological observation, and rests squarely in the mainstream of modern physics and chemistry, from which it draws its provenance. Much of the modern Russian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum genesis developed from the sciences of chemistry and thermodynamics, and accordingly the modern theory has steadfastly held as a central tenet that the generation of hydrocarbons must conform to the general laws of chemical thermodynamics, - as must likewise all matter. In such respect, modern Russian-Ukrainian petroleum science contrasts strongly to what are too often passed off as “theories” in the field of geology in Britain and the U.S.A.
As will be shown explicitly in a following articles, petroleum has no intrinsic association with biological material. The only hydrocarbon molecules which are exceptions to this point are methane, the hydrocarbon alkane specie of lowest chemical potential of all hydrocarbons, and to a lesser extent, ethene, the alkene of the lowest chemical potential of its homologous molecular series. Only methane is thermodynamically stable in the pressure and temperature regime of the near-surface crust of the Earth and accordingly can be generated there spontaneously, as is indeed observed for phenomena such as swamp gas or sewer gas. However, methane is practically the sole hydrocarbon molecule possessing such thermodynamic characteristic in that thermodynamic regime; almost all other reduced hydrocarbon molecules excepting only the lightest ones, are high pressure polymorphs of the hydrogen-carbon system. Spontaneous genesis of the heavier hydrocarbons which comprise natural petroleum occurs only in multi-kilobar regimes of high pressures, as is shown in a following article.
"3.1. The scientific and technical papers.
The Scientific Publications are further divided into two sets of articles dealing, first, with the rigorous scientific foundations upon which rests the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins, and, second, with applications of modern petroleum science to petroleum exploration and production.
In the first subsection are several published articles concerned directly with the statistical thermodynamics of the evolution of the hydrocarbon molecules and the origins of petroleum. The first paper in this section reviews the constraints of irreversibility upon the evolution of the hydrogen-carbon [H-C] system as determined by the second law of thermodynamics. In this article, the formalism of modern thermodynamics is applied freely, and the prohibition of spontaneous genesis of hydrocarbons heavier than methane in the regimes of temperature and pressure of the near-surface crust of the Earth is easily noted. A following paper reviews, and refutes, the claims for “evidence”[sic] for a biological origin of petroleum (commonly asserted in typical British and American textbooks on petroleum geology), - e.g., the “biomarkers,” the observation of optical activity, the slight differences in the abundances of linear molecules with odd (or even) numbers of carbon atoms, the presence of porphyrins, etc. The claims for each (as evidence of a biotic connection for petroleum) are refuted, with unchallenged evidence published in first-rank scientific journals often as long as thirty or forty years ago. The continued, egregious claims of such as “evidence” of a biological origin of petroleum are acknowledged to be fraudulent. A recent paper describes very recent analysis of the thermodynamic stability of the hydrogen-carbon system in circumstances most favorable to the evolution of hydrocarbons, and shows that the hydrocarbons which comprise natural petroleum cannot evolve spontaneously at pressures less than approximately 30 kbar, which pressures correspond to the depths of the mantle of the Earth. In the second instance, this paper describes experimental demonstration of the foregoing theoretical predictions, whereby laboratory-pure solid marble (CaCO3), iron oxide (FeO), wet with triple-distilled water, are subjected to pressures up to 50 kbar and temperatures to 2000 C. With no contribution of either hydrocarbons or biological detritus, the CaCO3-FeO-H2O system spontaneously generates, at the high pressures predicted theoretically, the suite of hydrocarbons characteristic of natural petroleum."
http://www.gasresources.net/index.htm
Let's play a game:
Compute the depth at which the required pressures exist, take into account the fraction of material in the mantle that comprises your three inputs. Fold in the reaction rate. Now integrate over the volume where the requisite conditions exist.
Finally diffuse the putative oil to the surface, taking into account that complex hydrocarbons will cook down to NG and the permeability of the mantle and crust.
Do this calculation and estimate a rate for contribution of abiotic oil.
If you cannot do this calculation, simply STFU as it demonstrates that you do not understand the science enough to see through the bullshit.
Edit: Another version of the game, perhaps one that you can understand....
The most optimistic estimates of original oil in place is about 10 trillion barrels. The earth is ~4 billion years old. This gives a rate of 2,500 barrels a year.... Hell, I'll give you 100 trillion barrels.... are you starting to see the problem?
See also, for instance, F. W. Engdahl's reporting on Haiti.
A brainwashed dumbass could also be persistent in their posts. Peak oil is like the cult of global warming. When oil prices are high enough, we will see more hybrids, NG, battery powered cars, and smaller cars. High prices will force demand to come down
Yep... the market always fixes everything...
Rolls eyes...
WAR ON OIL BITCHEZ!
EUR/USD volatility predicting further fall in EUR/USD
http://capital3x.com/?p=683
Ramping LIBOR predicting further fall in EURUSD.
um...Wha?
Good thing Barry dumped 60 million barrels onto the market...30 mil of which were sold directly to ...JPM!
it did wonders for the gas prices....LMAO.
LOL! He meant well!
It was just an advance payment for the campaign contribution that's going to be needed to reelect Barry. JPM will, no doubt, be very generous.
This is one of the best researched articles I have read on this subject in years. Thanks for the opportunity to read this.
Maybe if we pretend hard enough Peak Oil collapse won't happen! When the time comes and folks are stealing fuel, I'll gleefully blow holes in thieves radiators. Hmmmm, maybe thieves too.
Start with yourself.
People are already stealing gas. It's due to high prices and shit economy, not because the fuel pumps are empty.
Do you retards really think that society will keep using oil in the same amounts until not a drop is left in the ground and one day we wake up with empty fuel tanks and starve to death? The mass transit in my city has been packed since gas prices passed $2.50 and there are more motorcycles, electrics, hybrids, and smaller cars in general. American oil consumption is the same today as in 1997 despite the population increasing by over 30 million.
Of course, society will stop using oil in the same amounts.
The question is what else will they stop or start doing?
And the government?
We'd all like to know the answers
Stealing gas
That's the new-fangled arkansas credit card right there.
Where are your oil production numbers? U seem to be implying the US only consumes oil and produces none of "the goo." in fact this is a total falshood and cheapens the argument since the author is clearly pedlling an agenda. More to the point how does the so called "end of oil" result in total collapse? Moreover the irony of huge taxes on oil failing to help europe one bit should be lost on no one...though obvioisly it is here. It's time for ZH to start picking up its game. The crisis is upon us and "end of the world is nigh" claptrap serves only to cheapen the overall and correct message that another far more serious variant of 2008 is upon us.
Shouldn't your avatar be mentallydisabledvet?
The word is You not U. My numbers address production and consumption. Only an ideologue who has their own agenda wouldn't understand my analysis.
Try learning how to spell before you tell me how to analyze you dipshit.
You attacked his spelling and called him names. Your response proves you do not have the valid data to support your idea.
Go fuck yourself scumbag.
My article speaks for itself. Contest any of my numbers douchebag. Then go fuck yourself.
I contest most of your prose in the article, a bunch of bullshit. Don't know about your numbers, can't see past the self-important "I know better than all Americans" bull shit. As for your telling people to fuck themselves, grow up. It's the interwebs. Nobody is intimidated by your foul remarks. However, it is in line with your trash article that wouldn't get a "D" in community college Writing 202.
It is obvious, from his comments here, that Quinn is an arrogant prick. But it is also obvious, from his article, that he DOES know better than most ignorant idiot Americans.
Your article is full of shit. Go fuck your mother's smelly cunt and shove your article up her ass where it belongs
OOPS
Looks like I just stepped in a big pile of dimwit troll shit. I take shits with more substance than your vacuous ideologue posts.
You just let people think you are a fucking numbskull, rather than post on a blog and prove it beyond all doubt.
Do you ever have anything at all new or original to say?
Great article Jim, probably the first time 1/2 the people here read anything like this.
I'm impressed by your response. It proves you "feel" instead of "think." Not a good quality for someone who supposedly analyzes complex subjects. Apparenlty contrary opinion makes you "feel" scared and angry. Not exactly a mature way to deal with reality.
Yes. I'm terrified by the blatherings of douchebags. Anyone who would like to contest any of the figures in the articles can do so. Can you?
If someone wants a reasonable discussion they'll get it. If they spew bullshit, I'll obliterate them.
Fuck your maturity.
I'm genuinely surprised that you (the author?) let yourself be drawn into aggressive slanging matches like this. That does not speak for you, sir.
True colors.
Damn, dude - you are seriously fucked up.
You get your articles posted here, then troll the comments for somebody (ANYbody) that express a different opinion, then you jump up and down with all your insults and foul language.
When I lived in the city I'd hear dogs barking. Some of them barked for an hour or more. I used to ask myself "why the fuck would a live animal invest so much time into something as ridiculous as barking ??"
After being treated to your bullshit here, I actually appreciate the dog a little more. At least he duzn't try to make his barking look like independent thought.
So ... pretty please - with sugar on top: shut the fuck up already.
.
.
.
Oh, yeah ... and don't let anybody go around MANUFACTURING YOUR OPINION !!
Ignore the "claptrap" at your peril. Putting your head in the sand is no way to mount a viable defense.
As a vet the irony of this should not be lost on you. The U.S. used 2/3 of its oil reserves to fight WWII.
Vet, eh? Yom Kippur or 6 Day War?
Peak-a-boo is a game for infants and toddlers, not a policy development method.
I wonder if oil speculation is a factor? Nah.
Oh Chr-st. I just noticed Jim Quinn ragging on a poster. This is the nth posting by Jim Quinn on this subject. Tyler, if you dropped Leo, surely you can drop this one-note douchbag.
FAIL.
Bike boy is back to make 50 meaningless comments to show everyone he is smart, not dumb, like everyone says.
Ouch Jim, that's quite a comeback. I still think Tyler ought to cancel your one-note donkey show.
To quote an old meme from Fark: Arguing on the internet is like competing in the Special Olympics: even if you win; you're still retarded.
Please Jim, your argument may very well have merit, but resorting to name-calling and invective only weakens your position...
I'm sure Tyler cares what a fuckwad like you thinks.
Have you ever made a post on ZH that was worth reading?
I wonder if Exxon's bun boy (bicycle shoeshineboy) is trying to fly under the cover of speculators as a bogey man.
As I've told you before I don't work for or invest in Exxon. Exxon can pound sand.
I've also noted that there are a few posters whose handles end in '777' and have the same ridiculous attitude and beliefs. I'd tell you guys to get a room, but I think you may occupy the same mind.
Bicycle Repairman,
The only ones I've seen that end in '777' could pack your shit in their sleep.
Now Quinn's alter-ego shows up to insult people. And as always he uses his other identities to scan through all the posts and down-grade people multiple times.
Tyler, this guy is gaming your site, please shit-can this clown.
ok this labor day gasoline price is same as a year ago, where is crude? about $20/bbl lower... hmmm how does that work? now refining margins? has anyone looked at current refining margins? talk about stealing money...
When the price of oil is high all the equipment used in refining seems to work just fine. When the price of oil starts to drop, the equipment suddenly needs to be repaired and refineries go offline.
Gas prices are 54% higher than last year.
Because you don't understand currency debasement, you talk about refining costs?
How did you get your friends to give you three greens?
You want to know refining margins? Go look at Valero's profit margin. It's 0.7%
They're an indepepdent refiner, a one-trick pony. All they do is buy oil, refine it, and sell the refined petroleum products. There is little money in the American refinery market.
Nice piece, thank you. Would be great to know which energy stocks to invest in. Pretty lousy up to now. Seems to me they have all been blasted - you name it - oil, oil service, uranium, explorers and producers, solar and geothermal being unmentionable. Maybe hedge funds are long oil on the comex and short energy stocks, just like the play that is blowing up in their faces now with gold/gold stocks?
Go with the deep sea drillers, preferably ones based out of America, and Canadian oil companies.
Thanks.
1.) We BK China and put them back on 4 impoverished $2 dollar a day workers hanging off a moped, doing so kills their auto industrialization and thus kettles their oil demand.
2.) They BK us, kettling our oil demand.
3.) China nukes us, wipes our oil demand off the fucking map.
peak oil is a crock....oil is a renewable abiotic resource which while replenishing will be supplied from sands, tars, and coals.....the high price of oil has much less to do with supply and demand as it does with the rapacious banks trading the price - not the good - to reliquify their insolvent debt soaked institutions...
you are a fucking idiot.
Abiotic oil does not replenish at the rate we are depleting it.
If you DRAIN a lake at faster than the rate it refills, you face a problem called peak water. ALL finite resources have Peak conditions.
Not only is he a fucking idiot for believing in abiotic oil, but he has the cause and effect relationship between finance and energy completely bass-ackwards as well.
Probably spends too much time listening to Jeff Rense or Lindsey "Batshit" Williams.
So oil prices spiking to $150/brl in June 2008 and dropping to $33 by March 2009 had nothing to do with oil traders? Let's hike the margins for oil on the exchanges the same way they've been doing to gold and silver and see if there's any effect. Force the traders to take delivery.
The FIX was on and everybody who bought oil before it hit $147 got killed.
Who knows if the same FIX isn't on in gold? Same crooks. Different commodity.
Inasmuch as abiotic oil is produced deep in the Earth's mantle from calcium carbonate, how do you and how can you know the rate abiotic oil is replenishing? Peak water is nonsense too. The Power Elites would like to restrict the use of water too, just like they've been trying to restrict our air use through their global warming CO2 scam. It only takes energy to make pure water out of sea water.
" The second law of thermodynamics prohibits spontaneous genesis of hydrocarbons heavier than methane in the regimes of temperature and pressure found in the near-surface crust of the Earth. This fact has been known by competent physicists, chemists, chemical engineers, mechanical engineers and thermodynamicists since the third quarter of the 19th century.
Contrary to the misstatements by Clarke, there is no “debate” on this consequence of the laws of thermodynamics, - nor on any other aspect of those laws. That natural petroleum is not a “fossil fuel” has been known (by competent scientists) since the time of Clausius, Boltzmann, Gibbs, and Mendeleev.
The scientific problem connected with the genesis of hydrocarbons has been that genuine scientists have not heretofore been able to explain how, and under what conditions, such molecules do spontaneously evolve. Our article has resolved this question: Petroleum hydrocarbons heavier than methane are the high-pressure members of the hydrogen-carbon system; their spontaneous genesis requires pressures comparable to those necessary for the spontaneous genesis of diamond."
" The molecular structure of hydrocarbon and biotic molecules is determined by the quantum mechanical properties of the covalent carbon bond. Such is utterly independent of whether the molecule is of biotic or abiotic origin. A review, and repudiation, of such erroneous “looks-like/therefore-comes-from” arguments involving so-called “bio-markers” has been given at modest length in Energia, 22, September 2001, 26-34. "
http://www.gasresources.net/index.htm
Oh for fuck sakes. The science of how oil and gas and coal are created is WELL understood and has been for many decades. We know exactly the type of marine organisms that decayed, we know exactly what geological timeframe in which it ocurred, and we know exactly the physical and chemical process that took place to make the oil, and we know exactly the geological events that took place to contain and trap the oil. None of this is in dispute. NOT ANY OF IT. No engineering or physical sciences school on earth would accept the premises or arguments you have put forward. NOT ONE. Oh, but those schools are all run by the "oligarchical elite" in a "vast conspiracy to defraud the masses" and blah blah blah blah blah fucking blah. Abiotic oil is just tin foil hat batshit lunacy promulgated by scientifically illiterate morons, often fundie Christians like Lindsey Williams who no fuck all about petroleum engineering. You're posting crap sir. Absolute crap, and I have zero tolerance for it.
Where in his post did he mention Christians or Lindsey Williams? Nice try at a strawman argument, you jagoff asswipe. Go fuck yourself
"None of this is in dispute. NOT ANY OF IT. No engineering or physical sciences school on earth would accept the premises or arguments you have put forward. NOT ONE."
Liar!
Dismissal of the Claims of a Biological Connection for Natural Petroleum.
http://www.gasresources.net/DisposalBioClaims.htm
The bottom line on the abiotic hypothesis (a valid HYPOTHESIS) is: it has to deliver the goods. It has to actually lead us to places where we can drill, very deep, and get the goods. Does it? Where?
It does deliver the goods. If you read the links you will see the evidence. The Russians have had a lot of success finding oil using that theory with deep drilling. It's more than just a hypothesis.
@ inull ....
"Abiotic oil is just tin foil hat batshit lunacy.... "
Well said Sir!!