Guest Post: Who’s Right About Commodities: Bears Or Bulls?

Tyler Durden's picture

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nope-1004's picture

Gotta print, so must beat down commod's to show no inflation.

Gotta maintain the USD reserve, so must beat down PM wealth preservers (I think the CME calls those "evil speculators")

I really don't care.  I'm buying all the time.  Fuck JPM.  Screw Benocide.  The hell with Geithner.  Obama is a flake, as all the bankster controlled ones before him.  My wealth is in PM's near to me, not in the hands of the criminal cartel.

 

 

I think I need to buy a gun's picture

social security announced cost of living adjustment to return in 2012.....after 3 year absence....

Guess what that means inflation is coming back BIG.....next year and no even that cost of living adj won't cut it....

My tv is starting to smell like shit from all the bullshit coming out of the CNBC talking heads,,,,they are literally making shit up as they go, there is sooooo much shit starting to fly i'm getting ready to duck during Kudlow right now.

Stack Trace's picture

Kudlow is a sack of hack stitched together with BULL-shit.

Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

"Investors and advisors are beating a hasty retreat from all risky holdings, and for many that includes commodities."

 

If we had stable currencies that would be true, however our currencies have been destabilized for a  protracted period and are now being grossly undermined by QE and good old fashioned inflationary monetary policies.


See:

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts

 

Latest Fed data shows M1 is now up 22.5% year-over-year http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1?cid=25

 

When the currency crisis occur - and given central bank policy and the collapsing worldwide debt bubble, it will - there will be a run to real assets.

Harlequin001's picture

When you listen to this you could be forgiven for thinking that the amount of real gold traded at the margin is infinately more than the investors who hold it for the longer term, hence the volatility. Which is bullshit.

It amazes me how all these traders seem to sell or buy at exactlky the same time and by that I mean to the minute, which is uncanny...

Or is it one player with massive influence over prices through derivatives?

Go figure...

rocker's picture

Very Good Harlequin001. I really like that thought.
It is as true with the markets too.
Goldman must share that software that can manipulate markets with "special club members". And at a previous determined time they push F4,($).

Silver Bully's picture

I need to get Upper Crust, Super Special Club membership then. I thought I had to hit control, alt, delete on my vacuum tube algo thingy. Should I call tech support?

clymer's picture

Beats morning shit head and his hot (albeit strategically "plugged-in") co-host.

 

http://www.blacklistednews.com/Brzezinski%3A_Time_to_%E2%80%9CControl%E2...

 

Z-Big's Translation: "We need to make certain that the architects of global planning are provided deflection from blame, by being painted as philanthropists who give so much. This way we can remain the .0001% and throw the remaining 1% to the pitchforks. (he even says *cough* "they are making millions of dollars" ..not billions, let alone trillions)

Get ready for the next stage of global consolidation of control, courtesy of the ignorant public's easy steer toward "millionaires".

Jeffrey Sachs should stick with NWO-shill, Charlie Rose. I like him better when he goes up against Hugh Henry:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oZtPK6hqLU

 

flacon's picture

Unfortunately MSNBC spelled "Unfortunate" incorrectly. "UNFORTUANTE". Quality American is US. @8:25 in the video.

 

Other than that, I like Brazinsky's use of "DESPOTISM", it's one of his favourite words - and I have watched almost all of his TV appearances since 2008. He enjoys DESPOTISM. 

 

And for once I actually agree with Bra-zin-ski in that America is pretty much dumbed down and reduced to slogans, "simplistic slogans". 

 

I think Brazinsky is thinking as a central planner, in REACTION mode. We are just too damn stupid of a species to figure it out on our own without the loving hands of god-planning which Brazinsky will gladly give as long as he is able to play god. 

mickeyman's picture

He learned that playing Civ 2

flacon's picture

Civ 2? What is that?

 

Central planners are disgusted with the results that central planning has produced, but they blame that on the free markets and lack of CONTROL. The solution, of course, is MORE CONTROL and now Brazinsky is talking about PUBLIC SHAMING of those who profited from the policies of central planning. He is advocating an out right class WARFARE. Posting LISTS of the "rich". I wonder if he will post lists of people who benefited from TRILLIONS of dollars of bailout, POMO etc. and specifically target the policies of the central planners as the ultimate culprits of this wealth disparity and detail HOW they got rich by putting their buckets in the way of the "stimulus" to catch as much as they could.... 

 

(I was dreaming, the goal is to produce a scapegoat, not to solve any problems)

Hephasteus's picture

Fractionally reserved cannon fodder. Bankers they they are hooked on the scam. They do it over and over and over till you puke all over them and disolve them like a fucking fly. Don't make me throw up bankers.

Now quick sign some athletes up for some huge contracts and make a big noise about it. Right you fuckers.

Executioner's picture

Flacon,

 Do you mean, Zbigniew Brzezinski ?

Executioner's picture

You're right its like a soup letter :)

flacon's picture

I like the name Executioner. 

adr's picture

instead of talking heads, replace with defecating asses. Now all the words spewed make sense.

fonestar's picture

Word to your mother of the otha brotha!  Wealth is measured in oz.  Chumps are measured by their stacks of FRN.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

good luck avoiding that recession!

achmachat's picture

you should really stop putting money (gold and silver) in the same category as commodities.

Hephasteus's picture

Copper lead and sulfates are  a commodity side affect of gold and silver mining. As banks try to make thier paper belieavalbe they cause a huge glut in those commodity markets. Silver they just let get rediculously short supplied and then glut rediculously short supplied then glut.  Gold is pure money. Silver is 10 percent commodity 90 percent money.

TheSilverJournal's picture

Silver's going to min. $1,000 / oz. in real terms..so my vote is with the bulls.

Hearst's picture

History shows that Silver has made many people fortunes and supported many empires.

"The richest silver deposit in American history was discovered in 1857 in Nevada. Two brothers, Evan and Hosea Grosh, found the deposit, but died before they were able to record their claims. Henry Comstock, a sheepherder and prospector, who cared for the brothers' cabin, unsuccessfully tried to find gold on the land, sold his claims within months, and died a poor man. But the silver lode came to bear his name.

 One of the earliest discovers of the Comstock Lode's silver riches was George Hearst, who later found more mineral wealth in the mountains of Utah and South Dakota and finally the Anaconda copper deposits in Montana. His son, William Randolph Hearst would become the nation's most powerful publishing baron. Beginning with The San Francisco Examiner, which his father gave him in 1887, when William was 24, he would develop the nation's first media empire, including newspapers in most major cities and a string of magazines."

http://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/database/article_display.cfm?HHID=179

Silverhog's picture

Interesting, nobody willing to go to the bottom of the ocean to retrieve old fiat. But a ship laden with Silver is all over the news. If they found 10 ounces of Silver in the Andrea Doria's safe it would have been a hit on TV. Instead they found a hand full of rotten water logged Italian Lira. Stick with 5000+ years of monetary history. 

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

 

 

Silver's going to min. $1,000 / oz. in real terms..so my vote is with the bulls.

My personal price target for silver is $12,000/oz, maybe $100,000/oz if the "Cartel" looses control. 

Very fluid situation right now.  Lots of wild cards. 

 

 

TheSilverJournal's picture

$100,000 / oz. in real terms seems a bit high. LIkely, up to 2 billion -3 billion will per yr. will be able to be mined the first couple years and that number will continue to grow until the right above ground supply is available. If 2 billion could be mined that first year after price explosion and silver is valued at $100,000 / oz., that would make one years worth of mined silver $200,00 trillion. If by some bizarro fashion it actually got that high, it would be for a very short period of time. But who knows, fiat has made it to this point so that shows how whacked out things can get. In the end, though, it all leads back to equilibrium. People did spend a ridiculous amount on tulip bulbs at one time too.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Depends on whether or not people want keep eating.

cossack55's picture

Methinks the author misses the whole point of commodities, at least for real-world, non-paper delineated reality.  Odd name "katusa". Used to be a descriptor with negative conotations in Korea 40 years ago. 

kengland's picture

"Certainly, the fundamentals of the copper market remain very tight. Based on current demand predictions, the International Copper Study Group expects to see a deficit of 250,000 tonnes in the global refined copper market in 2012,"

 

How can this dipsheet reference "fundamentals" in this phony arse system? How can he weed through all of this fiscal and monetary bullsheet and come up with fundamentals?

 

Sad thing is, there will be thousands who will follow this turd down the toilet.

 

topcallingtroll's picture

Ben cant QE until people are begging for it.
I am thinking commodities might have a little bit further to fall but some positive growth surprises ought to keep it falling much further.

agent default's picture

When panic sets in all investors want to go to cash, and all central bankers want to go to their printing presses.

Turd Ferguson's picture

"The price of silver shed a whopping 33% in 30 days, while gold is currently down 15% compared to its price on September 6."

The author writes this as if this move in the metals was nothing but a natural correction in price when, in fact, it was a direct and coordinated beatdown, manufactured to give The Cartel room to continue covering their massive short positions without driving gold through $2000 and silver through $50. 

Grimbert's picture

And both metals are massively higher than this time last year.

printmemoney's picture

Mr. Ferguson.....I must say I have been very impressed with gold and silver's ability to hold their lines at 1650 and 30 against these relentless between market attacks. We still may be looking at another kick in the teeth, but the physical buyers will come in in droves. You run a terrific site.

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

 

 

Personally, I think Turd's site caters to the absolute dumbest investors in the market. 

The predictions are worse than dart throws and the conversations are utterly nonsensical.

 

 

printmemoney's picture

Sounds like you check it out quite a bit.......maybe if you are "looking to do the opposite of the turd herd" you should sell your physical metals (that you don't have) and go long bank of america

akak's picture

Personally, I think Turd's site caters to the absolute dumbest investors in the market. 

The predictions are worse than dart throws and the conversations are utterly nonsensical.

If you truly believe all that, then why do you continue to read (and most probably, troll) his blogsite?

Personally, I think that trolls who actively and continually spread misinformation, disinformation and dissension to disrupt anti-establishment online forums (while constantly changing their handles to pretend that they are new members and not the same, repeatedly discredited troll) are the absolute dumbest and most worthless pieces of human waste in the world.

jomama's picture

i must have missed that link to your blog...?

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

 

 

 

*LOL*

Ahh, yes...  "The Cartel".... that phantom, illusory nemesis of the doomer goons. 

Like religious fanatics who resort to stories about devils, spirits, gods and virgins when they don't understand the world around them, doomer goons do the same when the price of silver and gold bounce around. It's the Cartel's fault!  

Didn't you ever watch Scooby Doo as a child, Turd?  It's a metaphor for life.  At the end of every episode, when the "Mystery Gang" finally solves their puzzle, the villain or "ghost" was always a real person: the neighbor, the butcher, the teacher, etc.  It was never anything illusory or metaphysical or surreal like ghosts, goblins or evil spirits.  There was always a real answer to all the unknowns, whether you know the answer or not. 

When you continually explain all price movements as the handiwork of some phantom "Cartel", you're really no different than narrow-minded creationists or the "Mystery Gang."  Everything from margin hikes to SIFO rates to the mechanics of ETF's have actual, real explanations to those who truly understand (or have a real curiosity to understand) how the market works. 

Everything else is just carnival barking or good fodder for cartoons -especially cartoons involving talking dogs and farting bears.

Your insistence in blaming everything on some evil phantom Cartel is really quite sophomoric. 

Crash JP Morgue, buy Silver

*LOL*

 

JustObserving's picture

The Fed does intervene in the gold markets:

"That day the U.S. announced that the dollar would be devalued by 10 percent. By switching the yen to a floating exchange rate, the Japanese currency appreciated, and a sufficient realignment in exchange rates was realized. Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake."

Paul Volcker, Nikkei Weekly 2004

printmemoney's picture

your post is that of a freshman............who do you think initiates margin hikes?  no, you're right the margin hikes in silver early in the year happen all the time, especially in ES positions

 

 

buyingsterling's picture

"What?"

Exactly. You don't know what you're talking about. Un-backed currency is the must lucrative scam in history, and those benefiting the most from it will do anything in their power to keep it going.

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

 

 

Can you tell me more about this "unbacked currency?"  That sounds suspicious.

 

buyingsterling's picture

Go spend some time at mises.org or lewrockwell.com.

AustriAnnie's picture

"Can you tell me more about this "unbacked currency?"  That sounds suspicious."

Which one?  The one we have now, or the ones that came before:  

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial.php?page=articles/thousand-pictur...

Chaffinch's picture

I think your post demonstrates a good understanding of Scooby Doo, but I think you need to study the gold and silver markets a bit more carefully Libby.

cbaba's picture

Have you ever heard Andrew Maguire ?,

Who has over 40 years of experience as a metals trader,

he is the whistleblower for the silver and gold price manipulation.

Any bells ringing ?

do you think he is also a phantom or a ghost ?