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Guest Post: Why Everybody's Going To War in the Middle East
Submitted by Ron Holland of The Daily Bell,
"Everybody's going to war but we don't know what we are fighting for."
– Nerina Pallot, from "Everybody's Gone to War"
Iran Wants War
Although a peaceful nation for hundreds of years, Iran was invaded and occupied by the Allies in both World War One and Two. Then in 1980, at the urging of the United States, Saddam Hussein invaded them and used poison gas against both Kurds and Iran. Over 500,000 civilians, Iranian and Iraqi soldiers died in the longest war of the 20th century, which lasted until 1988.
Iran wants war because they believe they can withstand an Israel and US air assault and that unless they are invaded and occupied they can claim victory. No Middle East nation has ever been victorious against either the US or Israel and to declare victory against both will make Iran the leading nation across the entire region, at least for the people in the street. An Israel/US assault would also solve growing domestic political problems against the regime.
Israel
Bibi Netanyahu obviously believes Iran threatens the survival of Israel, as no major domestic political reasons to go to war are evident. The majority of Israel's population appears to be opposed to a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities because of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah. But as in the US, what the majority of the people want is of no consequence.
If the war plan leaked several days ago is real (see "Bibi's Secret War Plan") it's excellent but no war plan survives the first contact with the enemy. It appears to be an exact reverse of my fictional "The First American Dollar War Defeat" in which Electromagnetic Pulse weaponry is deployed.
So Netanyahu believes Israel can delay Iranian nuclear advances by bombing them back into the Stone Age with the help of America, who will surely be drawn into the conflict. Although most neocon experts believe the war will be short with a minimum of retaliation I fear the war could be a long one, pulling in many other nations in the Middle East. Again, Iran showed its resolve against Iraq in their long war and this same determination would rise to extreme levels against an Israeli strike.
USA
The old war against terror propaganda is losing ground to alternative news and opinion now available because of the Internet Reformation. Frankly, few people believe anything from either the American government or its establishment propaganda outlets and this is a frightening situation to the power elite that rules America.
Due to the growing economic crisis, the government needs to take strong actions that could be violently resisted by large segments of the US population unless a major financial or military crisis can be used as an excuse and cover for coming dictatorial actions. Simply stated, there are not enough police and military in the US to control the population should an insurrection take place. A major war in the Middle East can provide a casus belli for a direct assault against US private wealth, liberties, benefit programs and opposition by the power elite.
For example, the imposition of a military draft will dramatically cut unemployment rates as well as limit inner-city crime and outrage over cuts in domestic spending and welfare. Remember, austerity is needed and a draconian cut in Social Security and benefit programs must be engineered against the 50 percent of the population who receive some type of government benefits.
In addition, gold will need to be confiscated. Forced retirement investment into collapsing dollar denominated Treasury obligations must be required when foreign investors stop buying US debt. Stronger TSA authority, drones and harsh domestic controls will need to be implemented for the duration of the conflict in order to squelch domestic opposition. Taxes must be raised, penalties and fines must be doubled and tripled at the federal, state and municipal levels and finally, severe limitations on freedom of speech and freedom of assembly will be forced on the American people, along with gun control and limited access to Internet news and communications.
Finally, a major, long-term war in the Middle East will provide an excuse for the deferment and rescheduling of US debt obligations owed to nations and governments that oppose the US/Israel war in the Middle East. For the $1 trillion owed to China and many Middle East nations, this is effectively debt repudiation.
China
China wants to see the US weakened long-term as a world power and a major war in the Middle East will do this. They also need a reason to dump US Treasury debt and an excuse to avoid the blame of the coming broader repudiation of US debt. The Chinese people will be justifiably outraged that the Chinese government and central bank accumulated $1 trillion in US debt, although there were legitimate global trading reasons and domestic economic justification for this over-concentration in US debt and dollar obligations.
A Middle East war would avoid direct military action between the US and China while protecting both US and Chinese politicians from the coming Treasury debt repudiation, Chinese dump and global run on the dollar and Treasuries.
Conclusion
All sides in the coming conflict – except for the civilian populations and the soldiers maimed and killed – will win if everything goes according to plan. However, nothing ever goes according to plan in wars and this is the problem the world will face. Prolonged recession or depression, wealth and benefit confiscation throughout the EU, US and other Western democracies and the risk of a Middle East conflict spreading around the world is my fear.
Who is guaranteed to win regardless of the outcome of the war and whether it can be contained? The Anglo-American financial elites and the bankers always win every conflict regardless of the military outcome. This is the history of the 20th century and I see no reason that will change now.
Forty-plus years ago, when I was in basic training, we sang the patriotic and somewhat funny marching songs. But when our drill sergeants were out of range, we would shift into "1, 2, 3, 4 what are we fighting for?"
Looks to me like nothing has changed. American soldiers are still fighting for the power elites and their favored industries. I wish it were different.
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remember the "iranian hostage situ" right after jimmyCarter got egypt and israel to sign the campDavidAccords?
and right before reagan & ex-CIA dir. VP bushI won?
so we have an american-led peace step for the first time since about 1919 and "iran" captures the embassy! and no one is hurt thank goodness! and they are all released after being "terror-i-fried" when reagan wins!
immediately!
rather than blame anyone except the iranians, isn't it great that iran is still the cause of "noPeace" just about everywhere?
we have a lot of information about what "america" is actually doing
but not enuf to know how to approach "fixing" too much of anything yet
people gonna get hernias working for blue/red 'change' bullshit they don't understand? why? if we don't know what's happening; how do we know how to fix it? whether we elect rPaul or just get a turbo-hydromatic nukuler-powered guillotine to fight the FED with?
this is rational?
the neoCons BK'd america in 5 years and now they want to do it again? and people think war is "inevitable" too?
again, i'm not the kind to call anybody names, but isn't that just a possibly tad more than "correlation"?
or is that a new idea to people here?
are people trying to cause you to think war is inevitable when perhaps it isn't? that's a big "error" in the play-offs, people!
we don't even really know what the weather is gonna do (altho we have 'scientists' working for huge grants in related fields), so :> rain may not be inevitable but war is? b/c others are nuts over religious brainwashing and can neither see clearly nor think straight
whereas on zH we comment on "articles!
got it!
Slewie,
You are the bomb!!!!! MFer!!!!!
I love your pieces!
You really play that many slots?
You a retired spook or what?
dont worry, Lybia already agreed to pay 400 BILIONS in war reparations
This article has many things wrong and is very superficial as a number of people have pointed out. Israel is not nearly so concerned with the Iranian nuclear threat as Israel is concerned with cutting supplies and support for Hezbollah. Recall that Israel had their ass handed to them by Hezbollah a few short years ago. This was a very real wake-up call for the U.S. and Israeli militaries and exposed the myth of U.S.-style military invincibility. Against an entrenched, fortified enemy, smart bombs, radar-guided artillery, even nifty little remote control airplanes are nothing but very expensive ways to drop small amounts of explosives. The British, American, German, and Russian militaries in World War II could provide close air support which could be called in on a specific position or even vehicle. These are not "wonder weapons," and Israel feels the need to remove Hezbollah from its border. Since Syria is the major station in the line between Iran and Hezbollah, Israel is pulling the U.S. into conflict in Syria.
Iran is not nearly as intimidated as most people believe by the U.S. and Israel, which is not to say that Iran wants war. Hemmed in by U.S. bases and discerning clearly the progress of American imperialism for several decades in the Middle East, I am fairly certain that Iran feels as though war is coming regardless of what they do or do not do. The only thing that Iran can control is the timing. The longer Iran can put off war, the better. However, Iran has much to gain by a surprise attack on the U.S. carrier battle groups. If they wait too long, they lose the initiative and the chance to bag a couple CVNs, set back U.S. operations by months, and clamp down the straights of Hormuz for longer than the U.S. petroleum reserve holds out. They could strangle the U.S. economy and create such discontent in the states that the U.S. is forced to negotiate an end to hostilities. At least this is the best hope of Iran.
A prolonged blockade of the Straights will also cause suffering in Europe and force Europe to seek oil elsewhere...enter Russia. Russia has no great affinity for Persia. However, they are allies of convenience at the moment, just as China is also Russia's ally of convenience. Russia is playing both sides, East against West, against the middle to its own advantage. Nevertheless, Russian foreign policy has focused recently on stability and predictability. Russia does not want war either, but does stand to be the big winner in any East-West conflict.
China also does not want war. China just wants oil. War in the Middle East, inflation in oil and other commodities is not some Beijing plot. China will, however, support Iran, possibly even sending ground troops through Pakistan to destroy the American ground forces in Afghanistan.
The only ones who really want war are Israel and the United States. And the only thing that does not make any sense is why does the U.S. want war so badly now? The U.S. has grown wild and unpredictable in the eyes of most of the world. There seems to be no end to, and even no compelling reason for, American aggression and demands. When war comes (and it is coming), it will come because someone or some group in the U.S. is determined to start the war. And that someone is so powerful as to have convinced most Americans that they must engage in continuous war against most of the world. At least in Nazi Germany, they knew who was leading them into war. The Americans have no idea... it is not Bush... he is gone... it is not Obama... it is not Obama's plan. Who is leading America to war? It is almost like there is a shadow government inside the government.
Almost like there is a shadow government inside the government.
Was that sarcasm? A similar phrase is often used to describe the CIA and other Intelligence agencies, rogue military and rogue law enforcement. Some would say the Shadow Government has existed much longer, and not only in the USA. One writer called it the Secret Empire. Some would say it is the Red Shield Empire of Roth-schild. The ZOG ?
Why Now? There is an interpretation of the Book of Daniel prophecy of 1335 days/years as being fulfilled in 2012.
It seems that there is a faction within the Government that believes in Bible prophecy, such as Daniel and the Book of Revelation, prophesying the Battle of Armageddon and the New Jerusalem World Empire, although I have written elsewhere that the standard Evangelical interpretation of prophecy is wrong. The standard Evangelical interpretation suggests that China will invade Israel with a million man cavalry of horses. My interpretation is that the million horse invasion was already fulfilled during World War Two in Germany, by the horsepower of American and Russian "cavalry" battle tanks and trucks. In my interpretation of Revelation, chapter 11 prophesied the 9-11 attack on New York City, a city symbolized as the New Jerusalem.
The Khazars want war to fulfill their phophetic Zionist agenda. They care not who they kill. In the camps it would be a Jew who clubbed another Jew to exit the cattle car; a Jew who would split the other Jews into two lines; a Jew who pushed another Jew into the shower and a Jew who put another Jew in the oven.
You can bet there were Jews on each side, Axis and Allied, to finance the whole deal.
If they would kill their own what would stop them from killing you?
Why do we really need war, at this juncture in human history? The US is really the only country on earth ready to ship off and start a fight with other countries, over any pretext. Fact is, as a species, we have evolved. War is no longer politically correct. Those in the youngest draftable age range are a good example of what im talking about. Suicides among our troops are at an unprecedented high, because these guys find it impossible to buy into the notion that we have to kill other human lives in afghanistan over "terrorism" when they well know that we are over there, terrorizing them. It doesn't add up anymore, not morally or ethically, and our own soldiers can't even justify it patriotically. So why does it continue? Because the economic backbone of America is war. It comes down to big bucks, that's it, and that's that.
"in the longest war of the 20th century, which lasted until 1988"
............... can you do the maths?
vietnam was longer
trying to portrait Saddam as the bad guy?
LOL............... even ppl giving me thumbs down.
so MATHS lesson:
1980-1988= 8 years (iraq-iran)
1960-1975= 15 years (north viet-south viet+usa)
do americans are really so egocentric to think the war started when they arrived there?
Well, the whole artcle is a Shebang . What about the 3000 waterhead denegerated mother & brotherfuckers of Royal Saudi Family ??? There's noone more desperately NEEDING war than them . Peek salt water.They even suck the turkish dicks to have allies in the war on Shiites ... The whole radical Islam shit introduced to the world 30 yrs ago comes from shit Wahhabis, payed and served by fat buttfucking tribe which came to the power courtesy of F De Leino R ...
Btw: where is Bandar Bush ? Not feeling talkative ?
The Syrians got him.
Allahu Akkbar :-P
Hovewer, there is a rumour he got suicided by Uncle Sam for trying to diversify the risks and get nearer to Paks & China.
Waiting for the heart attack headline .....
Sarajevo moment : 1914 was just like 2013 will be looking like.
Pax Britannica had become unsustainable just like Pax Americana is becoming today.
Gavrilo Princip cloned fer Uncle Sam ?
If half of that happens, the world will be hellish, that's for sure.
I think you're crazy. Iran doesn't want a war and never has unless it's to defend itself. Bibi in Israel? Who the hell knows what he wants other than to find enemies under his bed he can strike out at, while trying to fill the bottomless shoes of his brother who would do everything he could not to go to war. Obviously, Bibi has internal problems and has no business leading Israel. As far as the U.S.A.? Congratulations, you got that one dead nut on. China you kind of got, but the best way to handle them is to fire back in the currency war they started in 1994. It's about the only thing good to come out of Mitt Romney whereas nothing good is coming out of Barack Obama.
However, this requries a foreign policy predicated upon Liberty, which is the strategy Reagan used against the Soviet Union. It works, but it means you have to put the neo-cons back in the closet and lock it tight... gas'em if you have to if that's what it takes.
Serfs Up America! www.electanewcongress.com
NEXT!
I laughed when I read the phrase "Anglo-American bankers"! Ha!
Ron is very clever to never reveal the TALMUDIC ideology that literally invented the ponzi scheme that is called a "banking system".
I would ask Ron, "Ever heard of the 'moneychangers'?"
Talmudism establishes a destructive, anti-human agenda and then has the temerity to blame others for the fallout!
You omit the Saudis who want the Persians/Shiites dead and are every bit as central to this clusterfuck as are Iran, Israel and the Neo Conartists on both sides of the Atlantic.
Bibi Netanyahu obviously believes Iran threatens the survival of Israel, as no major domestic political reasons to go to war are evident. The majority of Israel's population appears to be opposed to a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities because of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah. But as in the US, what the majority of the people want is of no consequence.
The issue is not one of survival, a nuclear Iran eliminates the ability of the US to invade and limits the size of the LTG of a Greater Israel. That is the main reason countries try to go nuclear, to protect themselves from the US of A.
If the war plan leaked several days ago is real (see "Bibi's Secret War Plan") it's excellent but no war plan survives the first contact with the enemy. It appears to be an exact reverse of my fictional "The First American Dollar War Defeat" in which Electromagnetic Pulse weaponry is deployed.
Mike Tyson - "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face (close enough for me to link a Mike Tyson quote)
I don't think Iran wants war but since they're constantly attacked by the US via proxy and war seems to be uninevitable the Mullah's use the war rhetoric to distract from their huge internal problems. Iran is at war with itself mainly. And the US knows that.
Great Game on! Two sides are making the moves to make a contiguious land powers at either end of the scope (Euroland & China), while the USA is in containment mode. A group of third players (although rather weak) are using the traditional Islamic religious card coming along the African Med. coast and inflitrating the Euroland framework gradually through increased numbers there. While Russia plays the game it always has, that of trying to set up buffers to protect itself. The question is, can the USA continue to keep its hegemonic crown? Doubts are creeping inwards, as perception is everything, and yet nothing at all.
People need to realise something that's true and verifiable about all this:
Namely, that the location of Iran's underground uranium enrichment activity is a gigantic and active sprawling military base, to the north and west of the holy city of Qom. This is not imaginary, as you can see for yourself in the satellite images the reality with first link below (spend an hour or two and have a close look at what's there). It plainly shows hundreds of visible bunkers, and a remote airbase under construction, with rows of massive berms used to contain blast effects from bombs. And many gigantic associated industrial complexes are all around this base. And under it is thousands of centrifuges in operation right now. So just be clear, this is where the Iranian uranium enrichment to 20% U-235 is currently happening. So it's a wee bit farcical to imagine that this is a civilian program.
Especially since the navy (i.e. a military nuclear program) already said it intends to build nuclear submarines, and the Govt recently spoke of oil tankers with nuclear propulsion. Those require HEU levels that are purified to above weapon grade, so thay are saying thats what they will do.
So just be clear about it; this civil uranium enrichment program actually looks nothing like a civil enrichment program when you have a look at it, and it is going to be expanded to meet an already declared military nuclear purpose.
I personally think they are entitled to do that just as much as any other country.
But I also personally think they have obviously already done that job and are now simply driving home this point to the US/NATO and Israel, that 'containment' is already out of the question. The public statement about a military intent to build nuclear subs is in fact notice being delivered to the West that they are already far too late to stop Iran, and that they had better get adjusted to this idea, that Iran is a defacto nuclear power.
That is the message they are obviously signalling in recent months, and this is why Iran is not going to take any shit from Obama at this point, and especially not from that kickable little yap-yap dog within the Israeli Knesset, because Iran is already confident it can and will halt any US invasion, and it would thus end the existing global economic status quo, and geopolitical order of things.
Fordow underground uranium enrichment complex site, near Qom:
http://mt0.google.com/vt/lyrs=h@183000000&hl=en&src=app&x=10504&y=6494&z...
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The second link is of the Parchin military base, WSW of Tehran, the suspected (or rather entirely alleged) site of nuclear weapons search and warhead development. It's also is a gigantic sprawling military complex with huge numbers and rows of bunkers to is south and south west, and massive associated industrial complexes and accommodations around it. And two gigantic underground complexes are visible on to the SW, and another to the NNW (NW of the dam), under two separate mountains. And at the centre is the massive military base itself, and weapon development and test facilities, and industrial complexes and power stations.
And you would of course expect such bases, or even ten of them near the capital city of any major developed country so let's keep this in perspective.
Parchin:
http://mt0.google.com/vt/lyrs=h@183000000&hl=en&src=app&x=5274&y=3229&z=...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_facilities_in_Iran
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And then we have the recent statements by the Iranian Govt and its officials:
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Which is another way of saying the US sanctions are definitely going to fail, completely, to acheive the stated aims.
So let's not be naive or blind about the actual situation here, on the ground in Iran. Iran is obviously building a nuclear arsenal, and in my personal view they almost certainly already have a significant capacity in that regard.
Or else, they would not be doing and saying what they are doing and saying.
It's in fact all a bit reminiscent of Israel's "oh no! We aren't making nuclear bombs!" games ... that lasted several decades as well.
Now this is really not the sort of theory anyone should want to test out.
Very lucid post. I will look at the sat. photos.
Our country, USA, has been stolen by lunatics bent on destroying/ruling over the ruins of the USA. I can't understand, knowing now what I did not know in 1979, why we did not apologize to the Iranians and sued for peace and reconciliation rather than this 'roid madman policy. Even our military, at the Pentagon, is questioning the motives of the Congress and has grave reservations w/ the cooperation w/ the zionist. There's, probably, not many Jews in the upper echelon of our military and I think they are beginning to question who is running the show in D.C. i.e. Congress or AIPAC? When BB Net. addresses, and lectures, a joint session of Congress more than the POTUS it becomes ,quite, obvious who runs this nation.
It's never been about Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. If Iran was to attack Israel first, particularly using an atomic bomb, Iran would be justifyably wiped off the earth. Not to mention other readers' previous comments that Iran has not attacked anybody since the Persians fought the Greeks.
This is about money. And not just oil! Iran has a rich, long history, is a very large country in size and sits on an extremely strategically placed piece of land linking the ME to Asia with oceanic access to major trade routes. Israel does not want Iran armed with ample electric power to build itself into a major economic industrial nation. The US does not want a shift in global economic power, particularly with respect to Iran. Let them have camels and oil, not more than that, right?
I do not believe there is a single soul among leading Israel and US politicians with access to honest intelligence who truly believes the nuclear weapon reasoning for war.
That's ridiculous nonsense, proliferation is not about attacking other countries, if it was we'd already all be dead. Why people keep making that presumption is beyond me.
Obtaining the bomb is about DETERRENCE.
It's to deter strategic CONVENTIONAL attacks, by those who feel they can manipulate the situation to create a viable pretext to get away with such attacks.
All other considerations are secondary if you can be quickly over-run and murdered by a bunch of nuclear-armed gangsters.
Which is what's actually been happening.
Do you suppose a threatened major state is going to just sit there and pursue money games, and become the easy next victim of these bastards? Especially when they jaust spent a decade calling you the axis-of-evil-doers?
Wake up, if they Iranians only cared about "the money", then how come they did not give-in to massive sanctions designed to take their money away?
Sorry, it doesn't accord with any of the observed facts and behaviours we're seeing.
This is how it’s going to go down ....
EMP is set off knocking the majority of civilized nations power...accident?..premeditated?..TPTB will leave that to future generations of conspiracy nuts to fight about....no electricity, no tv, no cells/telephone, no internet, no MEDIA...everyone is in the dark....and that is when they strike...they strike big and they strike hard....no media, no bad press, no nothing....at first you will be too busy trying to figure out why your cell/TV/internet isn’t working and days later as riots break out in every major city and food, clean water, electricity, rule of law and other basic necessities we take for granted disappear, Iran getting destroyed will be the least of your problems and the last thing on your mind….TPTB will knock out many birds with that stone….your welcome
"Iran wants war because they believe they can withstand an Israel and US air assault" " Netanyahu obviously believes Iran threatens the survival of Israel"
Nonsense. Iranian regime is desperately trying to avoid a war which will destroy it, and BIbi with several hundred nuclear warheads is not concerned about an Iranian attack.