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Guest Post: Why Is Gasoline Consumption Tanking?
Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
Why Is Gasoline Consumption Tanking?
Gasoline deliveries reflect recession and growth. The recent drop in retail gasoline deliveries is signalling a sharp contraction ahead.
Mish recently posted some intriguing charts depicting a significant decline in gasoline consumption. Then correspondent Joe R. forwarded me this stunning chart of gasoline retail deliveries, from the U.S. Energy Information Administration: (EIA)
As Joe noted, this data is interesting because it is un-manipulated, that is, it is not "seasonally adjusted" or run through some black-box modifications like so much other government data.
Retail gasoline deliveries, already well below 1980 levels, have absolutely fallen off a cliff. Is the plunge inventory-related, i.e. are storage facilities so full that retailers are simply putting off deliveries?
Though I don't have data on hand to support this, I know from one of my correspondents who is in the gasoline distribution/delivery business that gasoline is very much a "just in time" commodity: gas stations are often close to running out of fuel when they get a delivery. Stations aren't holding huge quantities of surplus gasoline; that's not how the business works.
Given the absence of "extra storage" in gas stations (and the fact that the number of gas stations has fallen dramatically since 1980), it is reasonable to conclude that retail delivery is largely a function of demand, i.e. gasoline consumption.
Even if you dismiss the recent plunge as an outlier, the declines in retail gasoline deliveries are mind-boggling. If you look at the data from 1983 to 2011 on the link above, you will note that delivery declines align with recessions.
For example, deliveries jumped from 50.1 million gallons per day (MGD) in November 1983, when the nation was emerging from the deepest postwar recession then on record, to 58 MGD the following November (1984).
Deliveries steadily rose to a peak of 67.1 MGD in July 1998, declined marginally in the 2001-2 recession and then surged to 66.8 MGD in August 2003. If we just look at one month--say November--then we see that deliveries remained in a remarkably consistent channel from 1994 to 2008, between 54 MGD and 63 MGD, with the higher numbers occuring in the "peak bubble years" of 1998 and 2003.
In 2010, gasoline deliveries declined to the low 40s--literally falling off the charts. In November 1983, deliveries were 51.1 MGD; in November 2010, they were 42.8 MGD, and in November 2011 they were 30.9 MGD.
Does this reflect higher fuel efficiencies in the U.S. vehicle fleet? To examine fuel efficiency and other macro-trends, I assembled some charts of fuel efficiency (courtesy of the Early Warning blog) and a graph of employment, a commonly used proxy for economic activity/growth.
Let's start with some basic data about population and vehicles. There are 254 million passenger vehicles registered in the U.S. Some percentage of these are classic cars and other vehicles that aren't driven much, but nonetheless the number of vehicles that are in regular use is large.
U.S. population in 1983 was approximately 234 million. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the current population at 313 million.
Vehicle sales declined from a record 17.4 million in 2000 to 11.5 million in 2010.
People are driving less: The Road... Less Traveled: An Analysis of Vehicle Miles Traveled Trends in the U.S.. (2008)
Driving, as measured by national Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), began to plateau as far back as 2004 and dropped in 2007 for the first time since 1980. Per capita driving followed a similar pattern, with flat-lining growth after 2000 and falling rates since 2005. These recent declines in driving predated the steady hikes in gas prices during 2007 and 2008. Moreover, the recent drops in VMT (90 billion miles) and VMT per capita (388 miles) are the largest annualized drops since World War II.
Here are two charts of U.S. employment which show two periods of strong expansion: in the late 1990s and in 2002-08.
If the number of jobs were correlated to gasoline deliveries, then we would expect deliveries to be close to those registered in 2003 and 1999, since the number of jobs has declined to the levels of those years.
Instead, we find deliveries are dramatically lower:
November 1999: 59 MGD
November 2003: 63.8 MGD
November 2010: 42.8 MGD
Once again, this is not an outlier: deliveries for all of 2010 were between 42 and 46 MGD, compared to deliveries in the high 50s/mid 60s in 1999 and 2003.
There are all kinds of other things that influence the number of miles driven, but there is little evidence that any one factor can account for a 47% drop in retail gasoline deliveries. For example, it is well-known that the U.S. economy has shifted to a digital, service economy in the past 30 years, and since more people can "consume" (via shopping at amazon.com, etc.) and "produce" (work from home) without driving, then it makes sense that people are driving less.
But if we examine the data, it's difficult to attribute the massive recent drops to people ordering stuff online or working from home more. After all, people were working from home and ordering stuff online in 2003, when gas deliveries reached 63 MGD, and in November 2006, when deliveries were 58.8 MGD.
Deliveries in November 2011 were 30.9 MGD, a staggering 47% decline.
What about fuel efficiency? here are two charts from the Early Warning blog. They show a significant increase in the 1980s, but only modest improvement through the 1990s and 2000s.
If we use the same year as in the employment analysis, 1999, we see there was a 6% rise in efficiency from 1999 to 2010. This would suggest 6% of the decline in gasoline deliveries can be attributed to increased efficiency. But what about the other 40% of the decline? That cannot be attributed to higher efficiency.
I've marked up the first chart to show the secular trends in efficiency and employment.
There are no data-supported broad-based drivers for dramatically lower gasoline consumption other than austerity and lower economic activity. The code-word for "austerity and lower economic activity" that is verboten in the Mainstream Media is "recession." Indeed, if you examine the EIA data, the only causal factor that has backing in the data is recession--or if you prefer, austerity and lower economic activity.
Then there is the price of fuel. People have to go to work, pick up the kids, get their meds, etc., and few urban centers in the U.S. have mass transit systems that are up to the task of replacing autos. So most Americans have what we might call non-discretionary driving. But as the price of fuel rises, people find ways to lower their discretionary driving by combining trips, shopping less often, shortening or eliminating vacations, etc. Enterprises reduce costly business travel with teleconferences and other digital technologies.
Data supports the notion that high oil prices lead to recession. For example, Chris Martenson recently made a compelling case for this in Why Our Currency Will Fail ("Note that all of the six prior recessions were preceded by a spike in oil prices.")
Household income doesn't rise just because oil is climbing in cost, and so the extra money spent on fuel is diverted from other consumption or saving (capital accumulation). Higher fuel costs lower household capital formation and reduce consumption/economic activity.
Oil has been elevated for months, kissing $100 and rarely dipping below $90/barrel. Do higher oil costs explain the decline in gasoline consumption? Once again, they undoubtedly influence consumption, but that cannot explain the 40% drop in consumption. After all, when oil spiked in 2008 to $140/barrel, deliveries only dropped by a few million gallons: from 58.8 MGD in July 2007, before the spike, to 54.8 MGD at the point of maximum pain in July 2008.
The cost of oil has declined sharply from mid-2008, yet consumption has tanked from 54.8 MGD in July 2008 to 42.4 MGD in July 2011. That's a hefty 21% decline.
What other plausible explanation is there for the decline from 42.4 MGD in July 2011 to 30.9 MGD in November 2011 other than a dramatic decline in discretionary driving? That 27% drop in a few months in unprecedented, except in times of war or sharp economic contraction, i.e. recession.
If we stipulate that vehicles and fuel consumption are essential proxies for the U.S. economy, then we can expect a steep decline in economic activity to register in other metrics within the next few months.
Such a sharp drop would of course be "unexpected" given the positive employment data of the past few months. But as the data above shows, employment isn't tightly correlated to gasoline consumption: gasoline consumption reflects recession and growth.
In other words, look out below.
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If you'd say the USA is NOT multicultural, I'd say there's noplace on Earth which would meet your requirements.
--------------------------------------------------
Strongly wrong.
The US of A is monolithic. US citizens strive on conformity and uniformity.
What is usually called diversity by US citizens is actually the kind of diversity they can not reduce.
Hence the reduction of diversity to biological elements. The negroes and the rest...
Culturally, the negroes in the US are assimilated.
Yes, plantations before the rise of US citizenism was more culturally diverse. It is another wonderful fact that actually places of coercion like slaver holdings were more culturally diverse than US citizenism places.
And to places that are culturally diverse, put your fingers on a map in sub saharan Africa and see what you get.
When you bring up all the different American ethnic groups that you see "shopping at WalMart", I am tempted to say that this is not so much a reflection of American multiculturalism as it is the LACK of culture, period.
I am disgusted beyond words by the vapid, banal, shallow, materially obsessed, unprincipled, uncouth, morally and intellectually reprehensible society the USA has become just in my lifetime. I am one small step from saying "To Hell with it" and leaving this God-forsaken cultural shithole already, even despite living on the very fringes of it as I currently do.
More flags, you need more flags, USA USA USA
damn, thought you said fags there for a second
I am one small step from saying "To Hell with it" and leaving this God-forsaken cultural shithole already
Well... You got the Jolly Rodger all cued up... all u need is a flotilla...
after centuries of northern european colonising, globally, I'm sure those people would agree with you
all you amrkns looking to bail on your homeland for someplace "cheap" with "hot babes" - just bear his words in mind. . .
Haha.
Yep but mostly the 'hot babes' are in countries where they are subservient to the rich beer swilling fantasist.
For example i seem to remember Belize, Panama and most of South America mentioned.
Why not Sweden??
The Liberty Option Documentary Film
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KulMyuavhQo&feature=g-all-lik&context=G2700510FAAAAAAAAAAA
I think you will approve Duke! God Bless You and Yours as Always!
Funny, even the great literary critic, Harold Bloom (both Jewish and uberlib) said that Hamlet could never have been written by some rain forest dweller in New Guinea. In other words, not all cultures are created equal, at least if you like Shakspeare.
Working more on the delivery, not so much the facts.
But thanks for the copy/paste
I wish more yankees would leave the South.
I wish every last ignorant, neocon-brainwashed warvangelist would leave the South too.
I won't, however, be holding my breath waiting.
Whereabouts in the south are you, akak?
I don't live in the South, but have spent a fair amount of time there in the past, and used to have relatives there as well (who were not, fortunately, very warvangelist themselves).
There are a number of aspects of Southern US society that I like and admire, but the overall political scene is NOT one of them.
There is a lot to like in the south, particularly the women, but the politics is as corrupt as it is anywhere. I've spent pretty much my entire life in the southeast, and I've been pretty happy, but I think I'd like the southwest, too. Texas or Arizona would be cool, I think.
I could never live in the South simply due to the weather --- anything above 70 is hot to me, and anything above 80 is miserable to unbearable. How anyone lives down there is a mystery to me; The Midwest was far too hot in the summer for my tastes, and the climate was a good part of the reason that I couldn't wait to leave there.
I am a red neck mf.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjYLRxHWKiQ
Quit scarin the Yankees.
they hunt with 5 X 20 from 100 yards away on private baited land.. and then talk about how they are stone cold hunters! LOL!
Complete with confederate flag. What a douche.
Look up Poe's Law and get back to us....
Then again, he might be the real thing <shudder>
don't tell me you are one of these dipshit DWLs...
I have seen some other stuff he has typed...
Classic troll or one of the most ignorant people I have come across....
On the other hand, none of this redneck/jewish bashing has anything I can tell to do with the price of gasoline.
BTW Tyler, great pun in the title of this post...
Hey bozo Nobody for pres....
Right at the title of the article.....
It says "GUEST POST"
The U.S. flag is not without stain ... just ask a Native American,
seller's remorse over manhattan? cry me a fukkin river.
one population was displaced by another which used the bounty to go to the moon and advance the human condition unimaginably.
On the contrary, I think your comment took quite a bit of imagination
one population was displaced by another which used the bounty to go to the moon and advance the human condition unimaginably.
-----------------------------------------------
Ah the great advance of humanity condition... Showing how much it is natural for US citizens to speak on behalf of humanity.
Funnily enough, the Indians have not that much tasted that great advance other by subsidizing it with their resources.
Admittedly, it is also common to consider themselves as humanity, the others being non human or subhuman. So it helps the propagandist bit.
As US citizens are also revolutionaries at heart, they are not the ones who pushed the world into an unsustainable trend, it is the inclusion of inferiors that has led to the unsustainable trend; the weak forcing the strong.
The myth must be preserved.
Just more evil Chinese citizenism hypocrisy.
Make me laugh!
You can discuss the American Indians' treatment AFTER you discuss the invasion, conquest, exploitation and Han Chinese colonization of Tibet, you vile, pathetic Chinese citizenism troll.
I dare you to justify the crypto-fascist Chinese citizenism regime's imperialistic and genocidal actions in Tibet, and THEN get back to us about American Indians --- and not before doing so.
Oh, and while you're at it, you scum-sucking dishwasher asswipe, why don't you discuss the 63-year record of Chinese warmongering threats against the independent Republic of Taiwan?
Or does none of that fit your blind, bigoted, ant-American agenda?
You deserve to be shot in the head, like the Chinese citizenism running dog lackey that you are.
one population was displaced by another which used the bounty to go to the moon and advance the human condition unimaginably.
trav... I like your style but you contradict yourself sometimes...
More than anyone I know... You preach the gospel of peak oil & the impossibility of sustaining the trajectory of the exponential growth curve... Then you praise the advancement of the human condition because we beat up a few indians, took over their land, and turned it into an island of coke, hookers, & $150 hamburgers...
...on a long enough timescale, I have hardly a doubt that the same island will return from whence it came, so in the end... Who's right? Who's wrong?
False dilemma response (coulped with expletive) coming in 5...4...3...2..
How did they make it through the Van Allen Belts without dying? And how did they lift so much hardware onto the moon (the moon requires reaction mass BOTH WAYS) and still have enough gas to get back? Something does not compute.
Or Bill Clinton...sorry, did you say flag?
Well, looks like it's time for another SPR release.
Makes as much national security sense this time as the last time Obama did it it.
What, do not the Chinese deserve cheap oil?
Yeah JP Morgue needs another profit stream.
Tacos and black beans will not hurt you. They have support groups for this.
nor will pad ki mao, yummmmmmmmmm. . . (well if you take out those tiny red chilis, THEN it won't hurt you)
Are you from SPLC central casting or working from your "office" at Starbucks in midtown Manhattan?
Your part time job of destroying Liberty via the internet is not going to pay your latte bills.
Be productive and stop creating and profiting upon the misery of other people.
Grow a dick and get a real job.
Maybe it's Krugman?
Naw, it's all those Hybrid and Electric cars...
Traded my SS Camaro for a Volt, now I drive more...it's actually more fun in a lot of ways. Charged by my off grid solar system - take that you frigging leaches who want "rent" for the essentials of life!
What did you do? bolt a fukin solar panel to the hood for an aditional tax break?
DC has a beautiful setup.
He does, indeed. I admit that I am considering a netzero PV system for the home, including enough kw for two vehicles and 500 back to the grid for cash each month. I like the 30% federal tax credit.
Why the fuck are you still paying TAXES grow some balls and stop killing people.
traded mine in for "one slightly used Space Shuttle." got it off e-bay with only "a few tiles missing" as well! Had my buddy Habib spackle some cube-age--and we're ready for lift off! come on along!
He needs a new Fetish... http://www.greencar.com/articles/venturi-feacutetish-high-end-electric-supercar-sports-car.php
Naah, in an election year bicycle usage goes up dramatically, dunno why.
Gud dahm I-legals!!
I have never seen an illegal alien "noodling" before so your job is safe.
Your definition of "Freedom of assosiation" has to do with wearing hood's around a burning cross without the Fed's being in the shrubs.
Signed..
A concerned Nigga.
lol...you're so stupid you don't know he was talking about blacks?
there isn't a society on the planet that wouldn't prefer hispanics to africans if they had to pick brown people
Between the two, anyone will be well advised to choose the one that consumes the less.
Actually, R. E. Lee, who knew a thing or two about blacks, preferred blacks to Mexicans...but I disagree with him. Blacks, whites, and latinos can be equally good or bad. Many blacks have been corrupted by the Democrat/Republican plantation system of welfare.
I used to be a racist, because i grew up white in Motown. Now i'm Orthodox Christian and am around a lot of black Coptics from the African continent. Sweetest people you will ever meet.
so, colour is only skin deep, and doesn't define the character of the individual????
who knew.
/heavy sarc
Dan logic and history do little help with trav's pigment disability
I think this guy is the most obvious, and unskilled troll we have here....
Confederates are traitors.
And Yankees are murderers, thieves, and carpetbaggers. Your point?
It's not the mix of cultures that is the problem, but the artificial levelling of the the playing field by the uberlibs. Until you have been denied a job because you were not black enough, brown enough, lesbian enough, gay enough, or just fucking weird enough, you won't understand and have no right to talk.
Different people having a different look, culture, behavior, or anything else is not the problem; government bureaucrats (biased by definition) picking and choosing winners is.
As a Southerner I object to you using the Stars and Bars. You are a fuck up. Multiculturalism did not get us to this point. People sitting on their asses and not being involved in their government did. Plus the Civil War was not about slavery, about 96% of the polpulation didn't own any (It really was about the rights of the individual state), so don't go off on 'multiculturals'. How's that for corporate control? We're still fighting unnecesarry wars.
Patriot my ass. And you're no Ron Paul supporter either.
"You can fool some of the people, some of the time." is your credo.
1/10
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mitt-romneys-defense-bain-capital-and-priv...
1/11
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/iran-interest-rates-raised-20-fight-hyperi...
1/12
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-sends-request-congress-12-trillion-d...
1/10
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-ask-debt-ceiling-increase-matter-day...
1/12
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/houston-we-have-recoupling-initial-claims-...
1/13
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ftmfw-quote-day#comment-2062041
1/19
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/rick-perry-out#comment-2077725
I find it funny you joined ZH the first week of the year. Why not sooner?
Were you waiting for budget approval/funding?
[You're obviously not getting paid by the word.]
Well, ignoring the tractors and other machinery that we use to grow and deliver your food of course. Without this fuel, ou certainly would have a lot less to eat.
Slightly off topic, but a very appropriate song...
"Hard Times" by Chris LeDoux
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WieqgYycKLc&feature=g-upl&context=G25b252...
This is more to LoP's point... cheeky as hell too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlyQ0JjyNis&sns=em
You can't eat gold or silver either but you can eat your ipad.
Well not directly, but you need gas and/or diesel to get food to the grocery store. No oil = no food.
No oil = no industrial farming.
no rednecks = no farming. No motor transport. No cities. Just wait until food gets fought over. Then we'll see change you can believe in.
+1
five pages of "open minded night" i see. what was the subject again?
Indeed. Civilization collapse is always 3 days away because of food.
No, 3 days of water. You can live weeks without food, but merely days without water. It takes electricity to pump water.
What happens if the power goes out for 6 months?
Civilization collapse is always 3 days away because of water.
Farmers are not that scare around the world.
Oil, a different tune.
The chart is for refinery deliveries. If I'm not mistaken there has been a number of refinery closures recently. Thats more of a chicken or an egg problem though. The refinery closings were really, really recent, so the chart could be more a reflection of WHY the refineries on the East Coast closed as opposed to the effect OF them closing. Just a thought though.
On a more macroscopic, global picture, oil production has been stagnant since 2005. As a disclaimer, some would argue that global production is at new record highs of late, bucking the stagnant trend. However, this is merely semantics since the "increase" in production is due to two phenomena. First, double counting supplies i.e. using large amounts of oil in plowing, sowing, fertilizing, spraying, and harvesting crops for creating ethanol (even the herbicides, pesticides, and fungicides are PETROchemicals, so more double counting there). So you count the produced oil, then you burn it to produce ethanol, and you count both supplies in the data... clever indeed. Second, global "liquid fuel supplies" are counted in VOLUME instead of the more apt ENERGY CONTENT. A gallon of ethanol or LNG contains less energy per gallon than oil products, so the VOLUME numbers are higher, but the ENERGY CONTENT isn't. These two gimmicks mislead people to think that our liquid fuels problem is abatting (even though the markets have been indicating otherwise for quite some time).
Of course, there is a third issue here. Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI) is the most parsimonious methodology for investigating our liquid fuel dilemma. Those who already know this don't need me to explain. Those who don't get it will likely continue to not get it, but that buys me more time to prepare.
My preparations aren't food and water stores for Armageddon because stores of food and water aren't sustainable. I moved to Florida from Minnesota, saved to buy a house (way, way cheap down here), I live just a few miles from St. Petersburg (allowing me to bike anywhere and everywhere), my new fruit trees (persimmon, feijoa, cherry of the rio grande, avacado, jaboticaba, grapefruit, orange, kumquat, mango, fig, pomegranate, jujube, blueberry, white sapote, cattley guava, and grapes) will be bearing a year round harvest in 3 years, and my garden is up and running now, water harvesting system will be in by June. So I say, let others stick there head in the sand as to the imminent decline of global liquid fuel supplies (in terms of EROEI) because the longer it takes the masses to realize whats happening (the end of sustained economic growth, which renders debt impossible to pay off) the longer I have to get nestled.
There's always the possibility of people ransacking my crops; I do live in the middle of a large city afterall, but having canines, strong relationships with neighbors, and an assortment of plants that are either prickly or deadly if comsumed the wrong way should go a long way to deterring that. Besides I do have a year of Nitro-paks just in case, and a lake in my backyard (and Big Berkey water filter).
The first chart is for deliveries BY refineries to retail outlets, not delivery TO refineries, so theoretically the number of refineries in oepration isn't a factor.
Agree that food/water storage isn't an end in itself, but more a way to get over the rough spots while more sustainable production comes on line. Not sure I want to be in Florida when that need becomes imminent, though!
The warmer weather doesn't produce a Killing Frost like it does further north. Every year I see migrant bums walking and pedaling their asses south in the early fall here.
As the stereotype goes, a significant portion of our population is, we'll call it, well aged. During and after the hyperinflation of the U.S. Dollar (I think we still have a few years because the zeitgeist prevents loss of confidence for now... Europe is really whats propping us up though) there will be a lot of strange issues regarding food distribution, and likely the availability of water and electricity as utility companies struggle in a hyperinflatiuonary environment. I'd guess that major metropolitan areas (population hubs) will receive the most emergency supplies from the govt/military, but I also don't want to be one of millions waiting for a food shipment during rioting, unrest, and loss of social cohesion (Greece anyone?). I'd imagine that as our society becomes poorer the average life span of an American will decrease, which will reduce the food requirements of Florida as a whole. Then again, people will likely move to Florida in droves if the idea of victory gardens and permaculture catch on, but that could be good for the value of my land (relatively speaking, of course).
First off, there is a very strong seasonality to gasoline demand - it's much stronger in the summer than in the winter, and distillate (jet fuel & diesel) are much stronger in the winter. Think of all the people driving around for vacations in the summer, and all the folks flying off to warm destinations in the winter, plus home heating demand in the NE where a significant area uses home heating oil because they have no Nat Gas. also think of speed boats and water skiing in the summer - lots of fun, but gas guzzlers! Comparing July and November demands is like comparing pre-open trading volume rate to that at the open or close. Second, CAFE standards have gone up, thereby reducing consumption. Double that effect with hybrids - as they slowly become a larger part of the US vehicle fleet, the average mpg will creep up, and consumption will creepa down. Third, the higher price does affect demand. Behaviors change - carpooling, avoiding useless driving, consolidating trips (my wife would ask me to get some OJ o nSatruday before B/F time, then tell me a half hour later that we also need eggs - that doesn't happen anymore. I make sure we are well stocked in all respects now, and never make one-item trips anymore, unless it is for a prescription - and she is getting better at it too), people assess cost of flying or taking the Greyhound vs. driving..... Fourth, high unemployment (and 99+week UIC checks) means more people can just be a couch potato and watch soap operas - no need to drive anywhere. Fifth, working from home is becoming more commonplace and acceptable - I usually work 2-4 days/month from home, and avoid the commuting hassles. Sixth, I used to drive downtown (about 23 miles). Because of the traffic hassles, the cost of using an HOV lane to overcome them to some extent, and the true cost of driving (including parking, increased maintenance, I have started driving to a park & ride lot, and take an express bus. Added bonus: I am getting real close to squeezing in a 20-minute nap on the bus!
Should have stayed in MN, if it does happen, pop. density in MN will fall quickly, density near you (florida) will be intense.. In shtf, density is a killer.
you mean "it's hard to see racism when you're white" MN? Importing somalis MN?
Somebody needs to sell them chinese made designer handbags.
Welcome to the Trav Channel: "All Asshole All the Time!"
akak, be nice to your brother.. you boys keep this up and I will pull this car over and we will go home!
Would you like to translate that gobbedly gook for me Trav?
On the other hand, the core of the cities Mpls / St. Paul highly liberal stupid christian N Euro stock importing all manner of third world losers. The suburbs on the other hand are strong conservatives, Bachmans district.. The weather here can be brutal beyond belief, 20f with 25 MPH winds now, density will go down quickly as a result of that weather..
Unless your prepared for it..
weather as a natural defense has worked for a LONGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG time.. but instead if everyone hiding.. why dont we just find the top 1% of the top 1% and tax them.. with lead... and be done and pay off whatever is owed and put our Country back together..
if everyone who was prepping put HALF as much time into figuring out how to get rid of or take out the trash.. the Country would be saved!
But instead.. everyone is playing along with the rich fuckers! population control cause they say so?
fuck that and fuck them!
if you wanna hide and let poor people kill poor people that your business.. but when I am done cleaning up.. I will damn sure be pissed off at everyone who sat on their fucking hands!
You best be damn fast to keep up..
More gasoline imports?
Actually distillate exports are up for the u.s. because domestic demand has fallen.
Check out the baltic dry index, hasn't been this low since 1986. Check out air freight numbers, JAL was down 45% for 2011. U.S. carriers reducing flights, freight flat or falling.
We are heading into the next downslope of this decade long depression and it is likely that the fraudclosure settlement could be the trigger that sets the shaky bus rolling back down the hill.
More foreclosures ahead, banks bought a green light/get ouf jail card for 25 billion dollars, probably courtesy of the U.S. treasury and Hank Paulson.
>>
What other plausible explanation is there for the decline from 42.4 MGD in July 2011 to 30.9 MGD in November 2011 other than a dramatic decline in discretionary driving?
>>
This guy is consistently weak with what gets posted on ZH. He can be safely ignored. The cause of the decline in gasoline consumption is not discretionary. It's unemployment.
The Sunday afternoon drive with the kids is gone. What is not gone is 1) people not driving to work and 2) people who moved back home can make just 1 trip to the grocery store or stores in general to buy things for just 1 household.
The price of oil might be down but the price of GAS is up for Christ sakes.....
What the hell does the price of oil have to do with the price of gas in todays manipulated market?
3.50 a gal here in Oregon.
Guys: the disinformation is on and I can't believe you're going for it all, line, hook and sinker. Come on. there is no way for the gasoline comsumption to decrease like that except: the numbers are faked. Why? because the world is using less gasoline, thus consumming less crude oil, therefore invasion of Iran will bear no consequences whatsoever. This stuff is coming straight out of the Dept of War to justify invasion of Iran. Do you see the cars and traffic falling off 50% on the freeway? I certainly don't. even on the weekend. It's crowded as hell. It takes an hour to go 30 miles anywhere.
Invasion of Iran. Here we come.
It doesn't matter what numbers are made up or not. If Iran gets attacked oil prices will skyrocket. Guaranteed. If Iran closes the Straight of Hormuz it'll be closed for hours at best, so that price spike would be short-lived, and if short enough wouldn't even be factored into gas prices at the pump because the market lags, and the lag smoothes the cost curve.
The real worry from an attack on Iran is shut in production. Iran is the 4th largest producer of oil in the world, and the 4th largest exporter as well. An attack on Iran would shut-in most of that production for a period of time. When Libyan production went offline prices at the pump went up 50 cents in a matter of weeks. If the world loses its #4 production it will wreak havoc on oil prices, economies, and whole societies.
This is also the exact reason that the United States, Europe, China, and India will do everything in their power to prevent Israel from attacking. There's so much to lose, especially withthe fragile situation in Europe, that the powers that be simply will not allow Iran to be attacked. If Israel isn't convinced enough is being done about Iran, and attacks then... well... brace yourself.
Exactly, attacking Iran is a bad idea, but if you can fool the public into thinking that shutting off Iran oil is inconsequential (because we're consuming so much less gasoline now) then attacking Iran is that much easier (those paid for politicians will read the polls and vote for an attack). Once the attack is underway, it's too late to go back and consequences be damned. You are confused about the aftermath vs the disinformation to lead the country into war. This is disinformation. And I doubt it if the strait of hormuz will be shut for few hours; more like few months, until Iran is affectively controlled by ground troops. That's right good old fashion troop on the ground Normandie style invasion.
Can't wait to this on CNN. Pass the popcorn.
With US Nimitz Class Super Carrier Groups idling hours from the Straight of Hormuz at this moment I'd venture to guess that the closing of that waterway would last mere hours if even being allowed to happen.
If Israel decides to strike the U.S. will be informed and prepared because nothing happens in a vacuum.
Having a Supercarrier Group sent to a region has the clout to prevent wars from breaking out (like when Clinton sent a 2 carrier groups to Taiwan in 1996) , much less ending them quickly. The U.S. spends more on military than the rest of the world combined (though I don't agree with spending money we don't have on a military aparatus that is largely geared toward conventional wars, when most threats are unconventional). Rest assured if Israel strikes the escalation and denouement will happen quickly. Although, as you said, the aftermath both economically and for the region will last and evolve for years.
the straights closed for a few hours?
you're the sort of dummy that thought the civil war would take a few weeks and ww1 the same.
USS enterpise is being set up for a watery grave courtesy of isreal .... no i meant to say iran goshdarn it.... why did i say the i word.... well maybe remembering USS Liberty...
http://ussliberty.org/report/report.htm
yup ... 100% pure troll
That explains everything. No wonder why this troll doesn't understand anything I say and just divert from the topic like a good politician.
Or may this isn't a troll, but might even be a spook.
Haha I hardly see it as trolling. Trolls use demagogic language to stir up anger in people, and hope for a pissed off, emotional response. Typically, a troll will veer way off subject to do this. For instance, if the subject is refinery deliveries and someone switches the subject to Jewish lizard people from space they are a troll. I switched from refinery deliveries to global oil supply to get a broader, fuller picture. Hardly a significant subject change. In fact, you my friend mentioned Iran, which is still reasonable since it involves oil supplies, I merely responded for some considerations and ruminations.
I use objective language, devoid of emotional charge, because that allows the mind to focus on the facts instead of rhetoric. The only thing your debating is what the facts actually are. You believe the data is forged and essentially part of a wider false flag conspiracy to invade Iran. I agree that there is a lot of manipulated data, but I doubt this particular piece of data is manipulated for the reasons you state. What has a bigger impact on oil prices, the U.S. and Europe financially blocking Iran oil exports, or this quaint data point that no one in the general public will ever see or hear about. I guarantee most people I've ever met will never have a thought about refinery deliveries to retail stations from July-Nov 2011. If no one ever hears about it its difficult to affect public perception.
I'm just asking you think critically about this, not trying to piss you off, and put you in a corner. If this data is forged in order to lower oil prices to boost the American publics appetite for war with Iran, then its completely contradictory to the much more influential sanctions on Iran's oil exports, which have truly driven the price of oil UP. Furthermore, in a time when the government is much more concerned with making the economy look bright and rosy, I doubt that they'd manipulate this data downward. For instance, they window dress the widely published jobless claims every week (as is widely reported on Zerohedge) making employment seem better than it is and RAISING oil prices, but if all they care about is lowering oil prices they should be doing the opposite.
So is there a large amount of data that is manipulated. YES.
Is this particular, relatively unheard of and insignificant data series manipulated in order to boost public sentiment to bomb Iran? NO.
Again. Thats not trolling, just displaying a set of facts and objective, emperical reasoning in order to elucidate the truth.
Double post, opps!
Per capita disposable income is down 1.3% and tax receipts are down 1.5%. The economy is in recession. One of the variable cost that consumers can control is driving and gas consumption.
A simpler explanation is that the minimum wage jobs created since the recession don't pay enough to justify driving a car across town, so it's the bus or carpool. $20/hour jobs won't support the housing market, and they won't support the auto market, though it seems that many have bought cars on credit recently that they can't affort to put gas in.
As a repair shop/towing company owner I can agree with that.The other shop owners I know in other parts of the country are saying the same thing.
Things have slowed down as people drive less-less oil changes,tires,brakes,etc...
I do see less people buying new cars,as the number of major jobs has increased.People are putting the money into what they already have.
All those low wage jobs being created aren't going to help much either.We're screwed.
So you think. Look at my post above. Invasion of Iran is on the way buddy. no less gasoline usage; just a way to justify and bolster the case for Iran invasion.
U.S. petroleum demand took a nose dive beginning in 2008 primarily due to the recession. The petroleum industry has not been able to recoup that demand mainly due to a poor economy and high national unemployment. For example, one reason that gasoline demand is down is because Americans are driving less. According to a USA Today analysis of data from the Federal Highway Administration, Americans have been driving fewer miles every month since March, 2011.[iii] “With the number of Americans unemployed or underemployed, you have a reduction in disposable income, fewer commutes, fewer shopping trips and leisure trips,” says Troy Green of AAA.[iv]
The demand for gasoline in the United States dropped by almost 6 percent from a peak of 9.3 million barrels a day in 2007 to 8.8 million barrels a day in 2011.[v]
The government will go to war with or without support of the people see Vietnam, Iraq, Colombia, Panama, etc.
ummm, better fuel mileage, people using public transport, moving closer to work, etc.
SURE, thats it! Has nothing to do with record high unemployment, record high bankruptcies, record high foreclosures, record high poverty in america....its all just signs of better efficiency and a more well oiled machine, I'm sure.
Right
Mike gas consumption dropped 23.7% from September to October 2011. Now you are a business major, tell me what that means?
It means the figures are wrong. No way does such a drastic change in behaviour take place in one month.
Take a gander at these inputs http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WTTNTUS2&f=W
There is a serious reduction in consumption. Even with domestic production up, there is still a fall in consumption.
Additionally, you can see a rollover http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRRIUS1&f=M
Bullish on Nike (NKE)
So is this one http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRRIUS2&f=W
Just saying there are reasons other than the economy.
http://metrarail.com/metra/en/home/about_metra/planning_records_reports/ridership_reports/monthly_ridership1.html
take the blinders off clown, they can both be true and in fact one would expect them to follow on each other.
geez , you are dense or just too deep in the koolaid to bother anymore.
SD1.... could it be that we are so "well oiled" that there was none left to refine??? :)
This will be spun as the "Facebook Effect." People don't have to drive to visit with friends and family! Bullish! BTFF! (Buy the fucking Facebook.)
/sarc.
because everything that the average Amerikan needs, and can afford, to buy is availible at the local GreatWallofChinaMart that is in their neighborhood,or sone to be built there.No kidding,here in my hometown,they are building a subsidised housing apartment complex around the corner from the Walmart,so the peasents can get to work.Get it,their employees cannot afford cars,gasoline,state mandatory car insurance,so they can just move into the new apatrments,they will qualify for with their minimal wage jobs.
But from what I read here lately,everything is the Yuuuunyuns fault,right fight club?
Blame the bankers,
KNOW THY ENEMY,BITCHEZ
Did you even read the article?
The big drop off was from September to October, 23.7%, extremely large and significant. When the economic data from 2011 is analyzed fully it would iot surprise me if this was the point here all the artificial spending stimulus from Washington quit working and the economy, adjusted for inflation, went into recession, again.
Politicians, and the Federal Reserve, simply cannot grasp the concept that printing and spending money does not create economic growth, it simply causes misallocation of resources and inflation.
More cars than suv's here in motown. Years past everyother vehicle was a suburban or expedition. The ford retirerees drive new pickups but don't drive as much as they did when working. The contractors are not busy so fewer work trucks on the road.
And the other deal, assholes running redlights so using less gas stopping and pulling off from lights like their running on one cylinder, so slow I've missed the light only being 8 cars back. gotta finish that text message and womanly important cell phone call.
Thanks for getting it out there for the both of us.
So this data shows what war with Iran is about. It's not about the oil. It's about enforcing the USD.
It's also about preventing a further collapse in oil prices.
Don't you understand? Everybody wants cheaper oil.... it is the *best* economic stimulus there is, that is, short of just giving some people money...
They kept trying to give people money as a stimulus but it stopped working when everyone had too much money for the amount of oil that was available...So people drove up the price of oil until enough couldn't afford it and in the meantime the oil flow started slowing down...
Now if they try to give money away again as a stimulus, the price of oil will do a moon shot...
Joseph Heller wrote a book about it.... Catch-22
How is that book anyway?
Jeez... and I was just going to ask you
Twice as funny as Catch-11.
so half as funny as catch 44?
Inflation is a bitch even for the humoristic writers!
oil at less than $115 is a sham; if we corrected price to the current depressed demand we'd still be at the $112-115 point and that itself is no outlier since even that has shifted due to everything (e.g. Iran, etc.) being potential outlier as norm scenarios-- so what does that tell us about pricing, D and such?
Because people are finally tired of the artificial manipulation of prices? Just a guess.
Ahhh Ahhh, serious subjects require some degree of seriousness at least sometimes.
Try to stay on subject!
Here are a couple of charts on the same subject taken from another source and perspective.
The first is year over year from 1992 of sales of gasoline. All data is raw and unadjusted from the Census B. First line is unadjusted $, second is BLS deflated, third is 1980 BLS numbers from shadow stats deflated.
Second chart is month over month. We are two days from the next monthly installment so I can update the charts.
http://i1140.photobucket.com/albums/n579/bearasaur/PMStatsr3_9023_image0...
http://i1140.photobucket.com/albums/n579/bearasaur/PMStatsr3_11621_image...
Zadok
Can I survive with a tank of gasoline and my .Pad?
Only if you have enough matches and a lithium battery in your ipod. The stars that burn the brightest, burn out first.
You measure your lifetime in hearteats and it might seem slightly longer.
Uhhhh...have you considered that everyone's driving a Chevy Volt so fuel is not needed?
I mean, duh, haven't you seen the GM dealer stuffing...er, I mean "sales" figures??
They sold out here as fast as GM shipped them to my area in all 4 major dealers. I have one. I'm averaging in the 200 mpg range with it. Solar power means I don't have a power bill for it. Most people do and get a full charge, about 40 miles, for about a dollar. It's a damn cool car, very agile in traffic - GM went all out to make it nice with neat features to help them recover some sort of reputation. Much better built than other recent GM's.
Something is weird about the monthly numbers. And EIA has their titles in their columns wrong. They say "per day" in most of the sheets you get from there, but the data set might actually be weekly or monthly.
The weekly data does not show the extreme recent collapse (although it does show a downtrend) and is up to date through Feb 3 2012.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_XzGBDVLIVY/TzXwts77r8I/AAAAAAAAB7A/ao-KLSOmns...
The monthly data does show the extreme recent collapse and is up to date through Nov 2011.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-123xG_rsEyU/TzXwtde0zdI/AAAAAAAAB64/KUupH59hhJ...
I do not pretend to know the difference between Supplied Product of U.S. Motor Gasoline and Retail Deliveries by Refiners. Other than it may be possible that some supply that does not come from refiners?
Simple. Unemployed people don't drive to work.
In America, jobs drive you!
Funny enough, due to the piss poor demand for gasoline, my refinery shut down. Soon I'll be out of a drive and not driving to work every day.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-09/refinery-closing-threatens-virgin-islands-debt-employment-1-.html
i thought it was because of all those chevy volts out thaya...
Yeah, but what about all the diesel for the fire engines?
bullish for diesel.
perhaps all the unemployed joined biker gangs... much better mpg
My Prius gets better gas mileage than my V-Rod....How'd that happen?
Must be the Japs don't ride Harleys...
Because the Harley engine is larger than the Prius engine?
Maybe it's the German designed engine in your V-Rod Harley Davidson
My Corvette get's 31 MPG at exactly 67 MPH and have 400 horsepower, My 2012 Super Glide Custom 1,584 ci get's about the same. Sorry, but you ain't gettin laid in a Prius or on a V-Rod.
Real men don't need a car to get laid...
Moreover, real men aren't interested in women that spread their legs at the sight of 'Vette...
It's hard to miss it if you drive one, though. I was shocked at the different response I got from women when driving at Jag XKE convertible around town one day. They were spreading their legs on the fucking freeways.
Sad, but undoubtably true...
rather, 'true, and doubtingly sad'