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Guest Post: Why Unemployment Is About To Surge

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Lance Roberts of StreetTalk Advisors

Why Unemployment Is About To Surge


sta-composite-employment-index-vs-claims-090111Unemployment is potentially set to rise sharply in the coming months.  That is a pretty bold claim on the surface and one that flies in the face of both mainstream economists, and the White House which is about to unveil a new "jobs plan".   

Let's take a quick look at some numbers:  8, 160, 400, 350, 12 and 5.  There have only been 8 weeks out of last 160 weeks that unemployment claims have been below 400 thousand claims.   In normal circumstances we are worried about recessions when claims are rising above 350 thousand claims.   Furthermore, jobless claims tend to plunge below 350 thousand a week within 12 months after the end of a recession.  Currently we are still holding above 400 thousand claims after more than two full years since the recession statistically ended.

Those are some pretty ugly numbers, but the most important number is 5.   The reason that we think unemployment might move sharply higher is that every time the STA Composite Employment Index drops to a level of 5 or less the economy has been in a recession.  Of course, it is during recessions that unemployment claims rise sharply as businesses cut back on their labor force to reduce costs.  This is clearly seen in the chart.

jobless-claims-vs-sp500-090111(Geeks Note:  The STA Composite Employment Index is an average weighted index of the employment components of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, seven different regional Federal Reserve manufactuing indexes, and the National Federation of Independent Business survey.)

It is not just the composite employment indicator that is causing concerns - it is the market itself.   The S&P 500, when inverted, has a very high correlation to the level of jobless claims.  The exception was the summer of 2010 where the market declined but jobless claims didn't rise sharply.  This was due to the introduction of QE2 which staved off an impending recession. However, on average sharp declines in the market, especially in advance of recessions, lead to sharp rises in unemployment claims.

With the economy chugging along at 1% currently, and most likely lower by the final revision, manufacturing indexes either in or moving towards contractionary levels, housing still under stress and corporate profits coming under pressure and Europe in complete disarray; there are plenty of catalysts to create push the economy off a very narrow ledge. 

So, while the Administration is rolling out a new "job recovery plan" in the coming days - the indicators may already be saying that it is a plan that is too late in coming.


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Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:03 | 1623943 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

recovery, bitchez.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:22 | 1624001 the mad hatter
the mad hatter's picture

interesting... recessions were happening every 10 years until the recent one which occured 8 years after the .com crash + 9/11. the next one will happen 2012, about 10 years after 9/11 and only 4 years after the most recent one. Is it just me or are recessions becoming so frequent that they'll become a depression soon?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:24 | 1624008 cossack55
cossack55's picture

New term........  re-recession.  You will never hear the D word.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:54 | 1624092 redcorona
redcorona's picture

double plus recession

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:21 | 1624159 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

You don't hear the words "kondratieff wave" much either.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:48 | 1624838 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture


Thank you.


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:38 | 1624413 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:29 | 1624740 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Class warfare => WWIII  The tweets and flash mobs will become armed and dangerous.  The police and military will not report to the wealthy - unless they are personally paid fortunes to be their mercenaries.  People will soon stop anesthetizing themselves watching Idol, Dancing with Stars, and Kardashians as they realize the "institutions" are against them.  Government entities, schools, hospitals, main stream entertainment and corporations.  That's when the little people will become really scary to the 1% elite.  Their money won't "work" anymore.  Stores may close, fiat money may not be accepted, and buildings will burn.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 03:58 | 1625384 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Class warfare => WWIII The tweets and flash mobs will become armed and dangerous. The police and military will not report to the wealthy - unless they are personally paid fortunes to be their mercenaries.


No, no. It wont happen like that.

US citizens are expansionists and have shown in no way a capacity to deal in other ways than classical expansionist ways.

Several stages in an expansion process:

first, expansion provides with more input stolen from an exterior. That is the good days of expansion. Expansionists fight for a better tomorrow.

Second, expansion into an exterior comes to a halt. It is no longer possible to expand because no room in the exterior is left to expand into.

Game changer. From that day, expansionists no longer fight for a better tomorrow but to avoid a worse tomorrow as any withdrawal from the pool takes from them.

It is what is happening in Libya. Libya was included in the US turf but showed signs of withdrawing. Libyans had to be pushed into line again.

Now for security. As an expansion process draws to its end, the cost for security is rising. Police, military and all will have a great time to ignite unrest as it will mean more wealth transfered to them.

Because at one point in the game, when expansionists have saturated their exterior, they are facing reality: the only place they can expand on is the interior (self looting)

One hint: the golden rule. It states limits to budget deficit and automatic procedure to deal with it. But it does not state priority of funding.

Now let's apply it to security enforcement and flash mobs:

The State can no longer overspend its budget. By Constitution, it has to stay under the limit.

Cut down job programs, prevention programs etc... Affected people go on loot.

Next budget discussion: higher cost for security to be taken on. Under the golden rule constraint, where to take the money from? Not from security, impossible, the needs are hitting the face.

From jobs programs, prevention programs, health programs etc... Consequence: affected people flash mob.

Wash, rince, repeat.

Welcome to the US world order. Nobody in the power apparatus has to fear about security forces (Military, the Police etc) loyalty as the situation is going to be highly favourable to them.

These people are going to live in a context where legally, they will be allowed to plunder, transfer wealth from anyone who is not involved in job security.

And taking from US citizens is much more rewarding than stealing from a third worlder living on a three USD budget per day. Much more.

Have a happy life in this US driven world.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:54 | 1624093 rocker
rocker's picture

 It's called "The Great Recession" now.     Next Up:  "The Greatest Depression".  

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:21 | 1624160 nyse
nyse's picture

I knew him back when he was called "The Pretty Good Recession".

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:15 | 1624702 propflow
propflow's picture

nah next is a leveraged recession etf DOA.USA


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:15 | 1624704 propflow
propflow's picture

nah next is a leveraged recession etf DOA.USA


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:55 | 1624872 See in the pink
See in the pink's picture

I thought it was now being referred to as the "Great Collapse..."

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:05 | 1624131 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Need more pawns then that. Plus all pawns are happy watching delusions on TV and wants to give the king a tax cut.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:09 | 1624679 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Nice.  It reminds me of the slow motion train wreck we find ourselves in.  Anyone with an IQ above room temperature already knows the outcome, but few are willing to admit it.  So...  we all play it out like the ending is going to magically change or something.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 23:51 | 1625092 I did it by Occident
I did it by Occident's picture

Deus Ex Machina, Bitchez!!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 23:52 | 1625093 I did it by Occident
I did it by Occident's picture


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:00 | 1624098 Chuck Bone
Chuck Bone's picture

The recessions are simply an effect of the popping of asset bubbles due to malinvestment. The continued use of credit to pull forward capital, resources, and demand has been exponentially increasing. As one bubble pops and another is blown by the clowns at the Federal Reserve (nevermind that the problem was too much housing debt, we need more debt, now!) the debt load multiplies. 

While no one can be sure when the scale finally (and violently) tips, we are beginning to see the signs. Recessions are more frequent. Employment growth is unable to keep up with population growth. Unused capital accumulates as the labor to use it is increasingly sourced offshore. And recently, the government finds itself forced to cut back on deficit spending.

That last one is important. GDP = C + I + G + NX, when G decreases so does GDP. When GDP decreases so do incomes, and thus tax revenues. When tax revenues decrease, government finds it has to cut back even more. This is the multiplier effect. While Keynesians love to point out this effect while government spending is increasing, no one dares speak of it when considering the effects of government cutbacks.

As we continue to fight too much bad debt with more debt, there are diminishing returns to our efforts. In addition, the inevitable damage (ie hit to GDP) that must occur at the point of unwind increases at a greater rate. What would have been a 5% hit to GDP in 2007 may be 10% in 2011. 

When you borrow you just trade future consumption for present consumption. Thus, in the future you must consume less than what is produced. This is a fact. This is the future.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:15 | 1624146 Ungaro
Ungaro's picture

You make too much sense for this thread, Chuck. Here still too many delude themselves that the gummint can fix anything, that Dr. BS Bernanke will pull a rabbit out of his hat or that the new jobs bill BHO hatched on Martha's Barnyard will "create" new jobs. That kind of naïvité is charmingly laughable.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:27 | 1624177 slyhill
slyhill's picture

WTF are you talking about?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:42 | 1624227 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

he has 'flipped' his top.....he has ZH confused with CNBS.....

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:32 | 1624387 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

He thought he was on the Yahoo boards.   Poor thing must be getting old and addled.

Hell, 2 people gave him a thumbs-up.  We gotta find those other two fast!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:59 | 1624893 See in the pink
See in the pink's picture

It's not his fault; it was a bug in that "chatbot management software" they're rolling out in Fort Meade...

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:50 | 1624453 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

Oh right, that "deluded" ZH crowd!  Wow, what a retard.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:48 | 1624245 Kayman
Kayman's picture

When tax revenues decrease, government finds it has to cut back even more. This is the multiplier effect.

The other multiplier effect: Everyone that receives a government  paycheck requires the private sector to be working since public sector employees and politicians, in effect, pay zero taxes.  All of their income is someone elses taxes.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:00 | 1624652 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the only Bull Market we're going to see in this Depression is rising unemployment ...should hit 50% in Europe, Japan and America around 2016 - 2017

that's when the 'Multiplier Effect' should be alot of fun does the Govt fund unemployment checks, food stamps, social security, healthcare and all the other promised wonderous protections that State Socialism offers when the unemployed begin to out-number the employed?

Maybe one day the penny will drop amongst the wider, unemployed, public that their 'protector' was actually a parasite feeding on society, destroying/consuming its productive wealth and destroying jobs. Govt is not the solution, Govt is the problem... how many times must that be repeated before it sinks in?????   

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 00:57 | 1625218 TexasAggie
TexasAggie's picture

So what are the odds that the economists that determine we are in a recession will identify one between now and Nov 6, 2012? They won't use the dreaded "D" word.  They are in love with the demorats.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:48 | 1624248 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

So who is this policy good for? Who benefits most from pulling future consumption?


The status quo of elites who are in position of power to profit.....Jewish banking elite knows future Jews won't study or work as hard as did the holocaust survivors and non-zionistas will take over, so they are taking all they can out of US.


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:36 | 1624208 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Mad Hatter, it's just you!

No, just kidding, but some of the following comments here, like:

"The recessions are simply an effect of the popping of asset bubbles due to malinvestment."

Are gobbleydigookers attempting to sound as if they can find their own vaginas, so let us not bother with them, please.

The situation is that they, the banksters (primarily JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi and BofA, together with Blackstone Group, KKR, Citadel, etc.) sold hundreds of trillions of worthless securitized financial instruments, generally speaking, credit derivatives, in thousands of categories (items based up items, items based upon indexes, etc., ad infinitum) so it will be many, many years while the effect of their actual worhtlessness is felt --- meaning debt deflation for some twenty years or more.

We are awesomely screwed, unless you are filthy rich.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 21:15 | 1624531 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture


"We are awesomely screwed, unless you are filthy rich."

--- er --- I'm with you on the first part, WE are massively screwed.  Don't know anyone of sufficiently filth to get through it, though.

- Ned

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:14 | 1624318 EINSILVERGUY

This is the the accelerated boom and bust effect which the FED is responsible for. The Big one has not hit yet

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:14 | 1624319 EINSILVERGUY

This is the the accelerated boom and bust effect which the FED is responsible for. The Big one has not hit yet

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:14 | 1624323 EINSILVERGUY

This is the the accelerated boom and bust effect which the FED is responsible for. The Big one has not hit yet

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:10 | 1624139 Grifter
Grifter's picture

I apologize for the thread hijack, but I felt it was (sorta) relevant to the theme of the post, MVP Healthcare in NYS seeking to jack rates 8% for large biz (more than 50 employees) & 17% for small biz (less than 50 employees):

My employer is over 50HC, so we only have an 8% hike to look forward to.  Yay.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:59 | 1624278 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Laser like focus - Bitchez!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:37 | 1624412 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Just fantastic.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:03 | 1623944 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hope and Change!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:03 | 1624122 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Spare change!  Is it me are there a ton of more corner beggars out there?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:50 | 1624254 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Stay away from my corner !

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:01 | 1624282 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

Can any of you bitchez front me a bag of hopium?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:16 | 1624331 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Man, alls I gots left is skittles bags and unicorn poo on mah house.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:04 | 1623945 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I'm having a difficult time prioritizing what I should be depressed about first.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:15 | 1623980 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture


Awareness and preparation -- C'est La Guerre.

Don't cha' know.

- Ned

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:21 | 1623998 macholatte
macholatte's picture


I was a peripheral visionary. I could see the future, but only way off to the side.
Steven Wright

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:00 | 1624109 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

I drink to forget this crap now. I used to be sober. I guess drinking is healthy and makes you pass out which is relief from thia crap.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:44 | 1624232 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Rampant fraud and corruption is a good place to start...

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 21:40 | 1624598 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

The gubermint say you can't use that word! You are 'repressed', and are thus in recovery. In which case prioritization is mainly on what prescription drugs to take and TV shows to watch first. There, all better.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:05 | 1623951 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Shamless goverment!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:48 | 1623959 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Only two words came to mind when I saw the headline: Oh and fuck. 



Anyone seasoned in the daily art of speed-reading zerohedge's fiesta of articles knows that the govt stats for unemployment are false, even if you exclude the way the stats are gathered compared to the way they were gathered 30yrs ago. We know it's bad. If there is a strong correlation between the S&P (Why not Russell, which includes 98% of all traded corporations?) and the jobless claims, then we're in for a surprise: Euphoria, followed by blood and tears.


I really ought to have posted this with Bruce Krasting's excellent recent post, but according to his article we are about to see a version of QE that has a different flavour altogether - a flavour that should really have been taste tested in 2008. According to Bruce, and I believe him, 10 million Americans who have mortgages with Fannie May/Freddie Mac, are about to be offered the deal of their lifetime (Or the deal to end their lives): Refinancing their mortgages at the (eventual) cost to the tax payer at a lower rate of interest (<4%) so that those "lucky" 10 Million will have more disposable income to spend on rising utility bills, food, ipods, and porn and thus kickstart the economy into nirvana and back. As he explained, it is kicking the can down the road - nothing fundamentally really changes, and the shadow financial instruments of the original loans (somebody else's bread and butter) won't suddenly, magically disappear. Or will they? But at least the Fed's balance sheet will go down respectively, and the banks will be over the moon with the refinancing.


Anyway, when it is announced, probably September 20th (Others think tomorrow, or September 8th), we'll see a lot of smiling faces, a lot of optimistic bull, and the market indexes rising to the skies. I can imagine the S&P rising to infinity as I type, in direct negative correlation to this article. Perhaps PMs floundering from their meterioc rise too this year. Then when reality kicks in sometime in 2012, bada bing bada boom, we have the same reality frying pan hitting everyone in the face and.... total economic collapse? Gold confiscation? End of the dollar at any rate, and the birth of a new dollar at an exchange rate that beggar belief.  Just thinking aloud.

Bruce's article:

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:56 | 1624095 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Fuck Bruce, here's the problem Jerky, :

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:03 | 1624111 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Loved it, thanks. Haven't listened to Twisted Sister for at least a decade! "Come on feel the noise" (Sorry, I always get Twisted Sister and Quiet Riot mixed up)

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:14 | 1624316 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Yeah I have not listened to twisted sister in almost 3 decades... =) It is "Cum on Feel the Noize" btw.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:56 | 1624270 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Yeah, that's smart !  Write down the mortgage costs for the Select 10 million and tell their neighbors that are keeping up with their payments to go FUCK THEMSELVES.

Only when this shit criminal debt is shoved back up the Bankers Fat Asses, will the economy recover.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:01 | 1624285 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:14 | 1624324 knukles
knukles's picture

Any politician who supports that deal is gonna be voted out of office next election.  Deal's dead on arrival. 
About as good Obama addressing the nation during the GOP debate... no, er.. during the NFL season opener...   Just trying to drive another 15% of the population into absolute appoplexy?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:13 | 1623966 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

I hear Bernanke is scheduled to speak on wednesday. It is the view of Fox News that he will

announce QE3 the day before Obama's speech. There is nothing here on ZH about that.

Anybody know what is going on?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:36 | 1624045 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Bernanke is scheduled to speak in Minneapolis, noon, September 8.

Obama will likely speak in the evening (prime time) later that day, since he was going to speak at 8pm Wednesday, before Boeher rescheduled him.

One imagines the two will compare notes ahead of time.

none of the above implies that I know what is going on.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:50 | 1624080 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Thank you mess. 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 21:20 | 1624542 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

And on September 7 the German constitutional court announces its verdict on the Greek bailout, which could be another Archduke Ferdinand moment for Europe. I wonder if Bernanke or Obama will even mention it.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:13 | 1623971 becky quick and...
becky quick and her beautiful mouth's picture

between obama and the bernak, some bad shit is coming down the pike in the next 30 days. i'm stocking up on cheap whiskey.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:58 | 1624102 kito
kito's picture

cheap whiskey, great for first aid kits as well............

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:07 | 1624134 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Every 72 hour kit should have cheap whiskey, quitting the anti-depressants all at once is not good.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:18 | 1624339 knukles
knukles's picture

Never, ever just quit your anti-depressants.  Always take all the remaining pills and swallow with a pint of cheap whiskey.  Also effective in enema form.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:59 | 1624104 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Hi Ho, you be wrong, Pappy Warren gonna wispa in yo' ear "Ohhhhh" Stocks Rocket Where's ROBO????

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:01 | 1624117 unununium
unununium's picture

I hope it's in the next 17 days.  You know, opex and all.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:06 | 1624296 hunglow
hunglow's picture

That's not a hard buffett you're sitting on.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:15 | 1623977 NuckingFuts
NuckingFuts's picture

I guess I picked the wrong week to........... (insert vice of choice here).

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:15 | 1623981 NuckingFuts
NuckingFuts's picture

quit sniffing glue.


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:25 | 1624017 cossack55
cossack55's picture

quit eating gold.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:52 | 1624086 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

quit angry masturbating.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:32 | 1624198 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

I needed that.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:48 | 1624239 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Quit self felatio and self rimmming...

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:07 | 1624298 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

quit snorting pixie stix and eating unicorn poo.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 21:48 | 1624615 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

...stop buying silver and quit doing Lowenbrau enemas!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:15 | 1623982 tempo
tempo's picture

Does it really make much difference if the US creates mimimum wage jobs? Take home pay is really higher if you qualify for EBT (food stamps), medicaid, unemployment, and student aid and living free either in your parents home or a home which you stopped making mortgage or insurance payment. You can sleep till noon, don't have to commute, and have more free time for football and porn. Employment is greatly overrated.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:23 | 1624005 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

You're young and you got your health, what do you want with a job? [/Evelle]

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:23 | 1624006 macholatte
macholatte's picture


Everybody was saying we must have more leisure. Now they are complaining they are unemployed.
Prince Philip

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:35 | 1624041 Lazlo Toth
Lazlo Toth's picture

I liked Steve Wright better.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:56 | 1624473 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

Prince Philip this!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:15 | 1623983 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Show me the way to go home....

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:04 | 1624129 Ungaro
Ungaro's picture

OK, try this. Living well is the best revenge!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:03 | 1624660 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Show me the way to go home....

Farewell and adieu to you dear Spanish ladies...

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:20 | 1623988 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Look no further for a better argument against this 2-party den of career criminals..

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:18 | 1623989 hambone
hambone's picture

Doubtful typical recessionary significant layoffs coming our way because few business' really staffed up significantly in the wake of the "recovery".  Recessions typically help biz get rid of organizational fat and lean down and good times rebuild the layers.  Not this time...many biz's took on temps and the like and they will be terminated as needed but don't believe these show up on the UE roles?  I'd look for a less than typical UE two cents.


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:56 | 1624074 kito
kito's picture

absolutely. not much left on the employment boat to jettison. businesses will stick with their valuable core staff and let go of the contract workers. retail at this time is fairly stable--downsizing/store closings have been happening over the past two years so its doubtful in the near future retail will get whacked. whats really left to throw overboard to feed the sharks??oh yeah, the BANKING industry.............but are sharks cannibals????


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:50 | 1624250 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Payless Shoe stores closing. Great ain;t it.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 03:07 | 1625345 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Hmm, that implies that we've reached "The Shoe Event Horizon™!"

Which reminds me, we'll know the jig is up when The Bernank or Obamatron start seeing shoes flying at them...

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:32 | 1624394 narnia
narnia's picture

47% of the GDP of the USA (which is only good at determining how money is spent, not how good the economy is) is federal, state or local government spending.  as long as the Fed can finance $1.4 trillion in deficits, this level of employment can put along & the debt can just accumulate. 

things are eventually going to get much worse, but barring a currency event, i wouldn't expect mass layoffs or major new employment in the short term.  most people will continue to have a meaningless direct or indirect government funded job providing nothing of value to anyone's quality of life.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 21:33 | 1624577 bobert
bobert's picture

You get it.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:38 | 1624416 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

I woudn't be so sure, productivity (the rich man's measure of if he should keep as much employees as he should) just dipped today. It may be time for more layoffs..

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:13 | 1624693 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

If we're measuring reported UE, I agree that it won't spike.  What's happening with the UE values is that those rolling off the unemployment "statistic" - the post-99ers - are offsetting the newly unemployed rolling on. 

John Williams is showing this pretty clearly with an upward trend in the "real" UE rate:

The most telling UE stat to me is one of the average length of unemployment, which tells anyone with one or more functioning optic nerves that we are in a tub of it:

The situation is like round after round of body blows to a fighter, but the stats are manipulated to hide it.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:20 | 1623991 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

That NYT article I quoted from on ZH yesterday was sure a tell: Ivy league graduates (yes, including Harvard) from 09 on SNAP, working call centers, waiting tables, or just plain back home in the basement. 

Commercials on TV these days talk about a girl on "a ramen-noodle-every-night type of budget" 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:10 | 1624301 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

OK with the first part, but that Allstate commercial makes me gag..... on ramen-every-night WTF she doin' driving a fuckin' car that requires insurance from Allstate? Fuckin' spin-meisters. No wonder USA gone to hell

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 23:53 | 1625099 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Some states you have to carry liability.  In my youth, I owned 3 cars all of which were worth less than a quarterly premium payment.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:20 | 1623995 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

 Bernanke has been accused of 'official' treason, whether that is 'unofficial' or not is irrelevant...

No way QE3 is possible without the following:

1)  A total 1933 situation where banks/clearing house/cdo/cds/treasury/meltdown is immediate (whether false flag or not)

2)  The opposition (legally) is hamhocked into submission...

My take, odds of QE3: 1 in 3

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:22 | 1623997 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

"So, while the Administration is rolling out a new "job recovery plan" in the coming days - the indicators may already be saying that it is a plan that is too late in coming."

Maybe the problem is that the government supported jobs that shouldn't have been there in the first place. Naturally, the only answer is....the government needs to do more to create jobs. 

How 'bout this. Shut the government down except for essential services (police, fire, etc) Take away all the burdensome regulations created by centrally managed government atrocities and let the people and market create the jobs. The government does nothing but take from the productive pocket and distribute to the unproductive pocket. That's a system I can (and most others) would choose to live without.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:24 | 1624009 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Maybe so, but we're gonna get a jobs plan, you can bet on it. And business tax cuts, mortgage refi package, infrastructure projects and other fiscal stim. Fed will be on hold in ZIRP forever land, doing their QE lite thing and recycling MBS and agency debt (to keep the WS bonus pool going). 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 21:22 | 1624087 citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

Agreed, and maybe this go round the jobs number from the government will be something closer to an approximation of what's really going on (not much, to pretty awful), rather than more hopium BS from the BLS (they get to tell it like it is, once in a while - good for morale), precisely to justify Obama with new jobs expert as head of economic advisers putting it to Congressional logrollers with a view to 2012 election cycle. Heaven help us. Think Solyndra's almost $500 million plus in loan guarantees for 1,100 plus jobs, plus 3,000 construction workers building 300,000 sq. feet of high tech green factory space, to be reused who knows when, multiply times some Krugman integer and voila, it's all good. And if it fails, it wasn't enough. 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:28 | 1624027 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Yeah, only 1 senator and 1 rep/state. Cheaper election and easier to keep tabs on.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:28 | 1624106 Ungaro
Ungaro's picture

Nah, that would make it easier for big money to buy them. Only 100 bank accounts to fill instead 535? Lobbyists would love it.

Representative democracy does not work. Retrograde the gummint to constitutional limits or better yet, to Plato's system of voting with black and white marbles. When it comes to gummint, less is more!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:30 | 1624033 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Police are hardly "essential."  Take a look at Newark, Camden, etc.

In Newark, for example, 6 months after laying off about 12% of the police force, homicides were up 52%.  Not a single one of those murder victims is currently unemployed.

You can't argue with the results.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:04 | 1624127 trav7777
trav7777's picture

well, to be fair, when the police union doesn't get their way, they all stop doing their jobs anyway

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:40 | 1624221 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

In faireness to the police unions the blacks stop doing their jobs even when they get their way. 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:30 | 1624034 macholatte
macholatte's picture


The Congress needs to adjourn, today, and do nothing for 5 years. Then and only then will people be safe and recover from the damage they have done. After that, people may decide that Congress doesn't need to come back at all.


Government is like a baby. An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other.
Ronald Reagan


Society is always taken by surprise at any new example of common sense.
Ralph Waldo Emerson



Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:38 | 1624050 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Shut the government down except for essential services (police, fire, etc)

I agree...except what do we need the police for?  All they do is show up after the fact, when the glass is broken and there is blood on the ground.  Additionally, they are simply agents of the auto insurance corporations.  We do not need police.  We need people to be able to defend themselves.

I agree...except what do we need firemen for?  You might think they are critical...if you are devoted watcher of Rescue Me.  However, I disagree.  Your house burns down...that is what your insurance is for.  After the fire department leaves, the house is a claim, anyway.  Leave some hoses next to the fire hydrants.

Hospitals and Med techs...sure.  But those are better left to private industry.

Simplify laws...all of them, tax, criminal etc.  I'm comfortable with the Constitution, myself.

So yeah...I agree with you...except cut it closer to the bone.  Keep a decent [but smaller] military.  Cut congress in half [reps and staff], close ALL Federal bureaucratic entities [FCC, FDA, Education, DOA, IRS, etc].  

Do this, and this country would flourish once again.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:24 | 1624012 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

More bank bonuses will trickle down and fix this eCONoME bitchez.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:28 | 1624013 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

The passage of ObamaCare ended any recovery.

Socialism, bitches.

I have to save any extra funds for supplemental healthcare insurance now, sheeple idiots.

I look forward to the prole whining they had to spend 8 hours in a waiting room. Enjoy the free, slaves.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:31 | 1624035 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

And the sheep said, 'Baaaah [what could go wrong?] Baaaah!', as Nixon removed any backing of value from the Dollar..

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:55 | 1624262 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

It was FDR who took us off the gold standard, dropped the value of the dollar from 1/20 AUoz to 1/35 AUoz, and confiscated all but small quantities of gold from the citizenry to fund his blatantly unconstitutional New Deal programs and gear up for WWII, which we didn't need to be involved in any more than we needed to be involved in any of the wars that followed it in the 20th century.

Lyndon Johnson took silver out of circulation.

Nixon's closure of the dollars-4-AU foreign exchange option pales in significance.

Ever since the libs - who HATED Nixon - got what they wanted in the Watergate fiasco, it seems the whole country has jumped on the fuck-Nixon bandwagon. But he was not that bad of a President. He got us out of Vietnam, didn't embroil us in any new miltary adventures, and opened the door to China (for better or worse). Pat Buchanan speaks of him favorably in many of his books.

I think by the time 1971 had rolled around, there were very few choices for the man to make. Either let the French (et al) drain entirely the vaults at Fort Knox, or put the final nail in the coffin for gold-backing for our currency. In the midst of all the other things that were going on that year, I can see how he made the decision he made, even though I disagree with it.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:55 | 1624094 Landrew
Landrew's picture

You are right! Only the rich should be healthy. Fuck middle class morons. Let the middle class pay up the ladder to the wealthy class. I am right there with you man! Fuck the middle class and the poor! Power to the rich!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:01 | 1624115 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

I am middle class, nugget.

That is why I do have to budget to afford decent healthcare.

On the up side, the hotrod clinics are only 5 hours away as I live five hours from the border with Mexico.

If you don't think that is the next growth industry, you are nuts.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:20 | 1624345 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Everyone in th USA thnks they're middle class.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:12 | 1624143 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Fuck off Rodent, I work in a ER.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:20 | 1624151 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Emtying bedpans?

The charts are not arguable.

The employment recovery ended nearly the day after Ocare was passed.

Keep up that wishful thinking while you deal with illegals who are not going to pay a dime.

And I have news for you. I won't be paying a dime.

How's that make you feel in a career sort of way?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:29 | 1624170 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Is that your sphincter I hear cutting gaskets out of your chair?

I am going to use the ER for hangnails now.

Stand by to be laid off when your employer goes BK.

And you make me feel no guilt.

Carry on, Costco bagger of the future.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:27 | 1624176 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Yep. Bedpans are part of the job! Did I mention you are a fucking douche? Nice change on the avatar, no change in the douche!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:34 | 1624188 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture


You'd be closer to correct if you called me an evil bastard who will happily watch you starve to death.

ERs are the primary care of the future.


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:52 | 1624259 yabyum
yabyum's picture

ERs are the primary care of today!! Do not waste your time wating me to starve, your type are a dime a dozen. PS are you related to my old ZH pal Liberal Sodomy? PSS evil bastard+ douche;)

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:54 | 1624266 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

You haven't added the FU multiplier.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:58 | 1624274 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Have you come out of your moms basement yet!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:03 | 1624292 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

I may. I'm feeling a little dizzy. I think I'll go to the ER and completely forget my SSN.

Illegals don't need one, why should I?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:23 | 1624350 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture



You certainly are a despicable right-wing varmint, aren't you?  You're the same fuckwad that was defending Dick Cheney the other day, right?  It takes a special sort of Republican pig to defend the most reprehensible political character in modern politics, and you, ratface, are that person.   

Let me guess..... you're from Texas?  Double down on rural Texas.      

Don't lie, you loathsome right-wing rat!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:47 | 1624445 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Close the border, or kiss my ass.

If the only benefit of citizenship is I am forced to pay taxes, you can all kiss my ass.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:25 | 1624015 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Conspiracy theorists are already out there about the 4.3 quake in LA an hour ago, saying it was a "man made quake" 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:29 | 1624025 drink or die
drink or die's picture

The next idiot that tries to talk about HAARP to me in person is going to get his face broken.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:30 | 1624030 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Well then, can I talk about it via the internet?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:30 | 1624031 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Can I suggest a wood chipper?

The eugenicists in govt. will have your back.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:39 | 1624051 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

What? you don't want to hear about Honky Assholes Against Ron Paul?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:46 | 1624064 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

I want to hear.

Please elaborate.

edited for a modicum of civility.


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:31 | 1624381 knukles
knukles's picture

If you'll write down your address and phone number I could write and call you about it.  We could talk for hours on end.  I like people who like to talk about those kind of things.  Like HAARP, earthquakes, UFO's, shadow people, conspiracies, flouridation, mercury shots and vaccinations, chemtrails and my favorite... enemas.
Promise.  I'll get back to you.  I could even reverse the charges if you'd like.  Maybe we could pray togeather, too.  Can I be your friend? 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:36 | 1624044 Yardstick of Ci...
Yardstick of Civilization's picture

Fucking Krugman was fracking for natural gas, found a soft spot, and hit it with a jack hammer like a tuning fork.  Music to a Keynesian's ears!!!!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:29 | 1624029 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Barnanke is scheduled to speak in Minneapolis, noon, September 8.

Obama will likely speak in the evening (prime time) later that day, since he was going to speak at 8pm Wednesday, before Boeher rescheduled him.

One imagines the two will compare notes ahead of time.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:33 | 1624038 Peter_Griffin
Peter_Griffin's picture

So does a bad NFP send the dollar higher on risk aversion, or lower on greater hopes of QE3?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:44 | 1624062 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

If you send the dollar on any kind of errand, you never know what sort of mischief it will get into.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 00:18 | 1625151 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:41 | 1624055 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Add the small business' that IRENE killed

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:42 | 1624056 ZeroAffect
ZeroAffect's picture

So, while the Administration is rolling out a new "job recovery plan" in the coming days - the indicators may already be saying that it is a plan that is too late in coming.

The New and Improved Jobs Plan is going to be a double-down on the crap stimulus legislation we got in 2009. So, maybe companies are reading the political winds and to help stave off BK will do more layoffs. The US Postal Service is closing down a bunch of branches and expect to layoff 120,000. More companies are going to BTFD and head into BK.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:21 | 1624161 PaperBugsBurn
PaperBugsBurn's picture

So it will have ZeroEffect.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 20:33 | 1624399 knukles
knukles's picture

And so Zero to Hedge?   Lol ah hahah haha ha ha ha ahhaha hha.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:45 | 1624066 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

California bill to fund college for illegal immigrants advances

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:51 | 1624084 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

I promised my dear old Mom, I'd buy her a Cadillac. And I will, when i have the money. Cali's broke, so why not make even more promises it can't keep? In two years, no-one will be going to college. The smart illegals have taken their winnings and gone home. Another bubble burst- big money in El Norte. Those who remain are suckers, on the bandwagon too late.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:45 | 1624068 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Jobs recovery programs... because hard cider doesn't buy votes like it used to.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:48 | 1624071 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Don't worry...BLS will implement a new birth/death model in time for the elections. The suicide print will be coming in better than expected.,,,,or worse, depending on your perspective.

Begin with the desired result and work backwards. That's the way they do it. 


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:58 | 1624101 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Rainman: You should rename yourself 'Rainmaker'

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:50 | 1624079 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It's not too late in coming if it reduces unemployment in September next year, which all that matters to the Administration.

In truth, the only way to get reprieve is to bulldoze every foreclosed house and make the bank eat the the loss.

That's only a reprieve, of course.  Oil scarcity permits no solution.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:54 | 1624090 digalert
digalert's picture

WOW, 300k average UEC's since 1971,

hmmm, what happened then?

Oh that's right, Nixon took us off the gold standard. Been smooth sailing ever since, well the party is about over.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:57 | 1624097 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Peak Oil bitchez!

For those who enjoy irony... Libya's oil wealth is now in the hands of BP and Total... but with Gaddafi on the loose, and tribal warfare a certainty, it is inevitable that Libya's oil production, which topped out at 2.6 million bbl/day, and is now hovering around 300,000 bbl/day, will never reach peak production again.

Way to get that oil, Obama, Cameron, and Sarkozy, you worthless dumbfucks.

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