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Guest Post: Why Unemployment Is About To Surge
Submitted by Lance Roberts of StreetTalk Advisors
Why Unemployment Is About To Surge
Unemployment is potentially set to rise sharply in the coming months. That is a pretty bold claim on the surface and one that flies in the face of both mainstream economists, and the White House which is about to unveil a new "jobs plan".
Let's take a quick look at some numbers: 8, 160, 400, 350, 12 and 5. There have only been 8 weeks out of last 160 weeks that unemployment claims have been below 400 thousand claims. In normal circumstances we are worried about recessions when claims are rising above 350 thousand claims. Furthermore, jobless claims tend to plunge below 350 thousand a week within 12 months after the end of a recession. Currently we are still holding above 400 thousand claims after more than two full years since the recession statistically ended.
Those are some pretty ugly numbers, but the most important number is 5. The reason that we think unemployment might move sharply higher is that every time the STA Composite Employment Index drops to a level of 5 or less the economy has been in a recession. Of course, it is during recessions that unemployment claims rise sharply as businesses cut back on their labor force to reduce costs. This is clearly seen in the chart.
(Geeks Note: The STA Composite Employment Index is an average weighted index of the employment components of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, seven different regional Federal Reserve manufactuing indexes, and the National Federation of Independent Business survey.)
It is not just the composite employment indicator that is causing concerns - it is the market itself. The S&P 500, when inverted, has a very high correlation to the level of jobless claims. The exception was the summer of 2010 where the market declined but jobless claims didn't rise sharply. This was due to the introduction of QE2 which staved off an impending recession. However, on average sharp declines in the market, especially in advance of recessions, lead to sharp rises in unemployment claims.
With the economy chugging along at 1% currently, and most likely lower by the final revision, manufacturing indexes either in or moving towards contractionary levels, housing still under stress and corporate profits coming under pressure and Europe in complete disarray; there are plenty of catalysts to create push the economy off a very narrow ledge.
So, while the Administration is rolling out a new "job recovery plan" in the coming days - the indicators may already be saying that it is a plan that is too late in coming.
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Libya's oil production, which topped out at 2.6 million bbl/day, and is now hovering around 300,000 bbl/day, will never reach peak production again.
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
Funny how that works. Didn't even have to wait for Peak OilTM to shut them down.
It doesn't surprise me at all that unemployment is set to surge again. Last week the multi-national I work for told a bunch of its accountants their jobs are being moved to India - starting next month. A whole department being axed including folks in their 30s and 40s with mortgages, kids at private schools etc. They thought they had secure, well paying jobs, supporting their middle-class lifestyles - and then BAM!
The corporation is doing great. Recently announced excellent 2nd quarter results, with reduced labor costs being a big factor.
It's obvious that US corporations are really taking advantage of this ongoing crisis to swing for the fences by offshoring every job that can be offshored (and that is most) in order to improve the bottom line. The process is accelerating.
And to be honest - who can blame them? These corporations are not charities - they are not there to support unsustainable American middle-class lifestyles.
In this case I am reliably informed that the average accountant was pulling in a salary in excess of 120 K plus benefits - whereas their counterparts in India will be on less than 15 K - with few benefits. Do the math.
It is undeniable that a great global rebalancing is taking place. The US middle class needs to face the fact they are now competing in a global marketplace. Until they are prepared to accept drastically reduced wages and conditions their jobs are NEVER coming back.
Within 10 years time I expect to see the standard of living of most Americans reduced to the level of the Indian and Chinese workers we are competing with. It's going to be a long painful process - but a necessary one.
When I start to see snotty nosed children of previously middle class US families picking through piles of garbage on the outskirts of town, looking for scraps of food (similar to what I saw in Bangalore and Hyderabad last year) that will be a good sign for me. Then I will know the healing has begun. Jobs will finally start to come back to America. It won't be the kind of America they we grew up with - but that America is gone for good anyway. Deal with it.
Great post. Another way to look at it is thusly: where did we expect all those computer/internet productivity gains to come from? Fewer 120K/yr accountant jobs, of course! Toss in mortgage industry drones and union assembly jobs, and you're starting to get the picture.
Hope I managed to offend everyone here...
Not to add puce to the chartruce, but immigration is a serious problem, too. My brain surgeon was recently replaced by an Ecuadorian coffee bean picker, my computer programmer by a Puerto Rican quadraplegic blind deaf and dumb brain dead siamese twin, my acountant by a 400 lb laid off Samoan Turbo Tax call center specialist.
Great post?
'These corporations are not charities - they are not there to support unsustainable American middle-class lifestyles'
i think its shit
the chinese are doing ok
'Julius Baer said the number of people in Asia with $US1 million ($932,000) or more in investible assets will more than double by 2015, to 2.82 million.'
you are a fucking piece of trash. Yeah, death to the middle class...let the oligarchs have EVERYTHING.
We're competing so fucking CEOs can have bigger yachts with the profits. Fuck you.
+1913 You are my mothafucka! Top 10 ZH posters for sure.
OK Trav - what is your answer then? How exactly do you stop this process? What is the mechanism whereby you will prevent US multi-nationals from offshoring middle-class jobs to people in countries who will work for a 10th of the wages of Americans?
The process has been impacting on US blue collar workers for more than two decades with factories being shuttered and production moved to Mexico, China, Indonesia etc where workers will do the same work for a fraction of the cost. Now it's the middle-class's turn to feel the pain.
It's called capitalism. Unless you are prepared to put forward realistic proposals for preventing what is an inevitable process, I am calling bullshit to your bitching and whining.
"What is the mechanism whereby you will prevent US multi-nationals from offshoring middle-class jobs to people in countries who will work for a 10th of the wages of Americans?"
The mechanism is called revolution. It normally takes a few years to come to fruition.
Here is a decent proposal:
Eliminate every single regulation in the US as it pertains to business. It would drop the UE rate to 2% in a matter of months.
Get rid of every single regulation?
*LOL*
Go to the fucking factories in SE Asia and India where labor regulations are non-existent, and tell me how the workers are doing. Make sure you ask the 9 year olds, too. Some input from workers at Foxconn would be interesting.... try to catch them before they jump out the windows.
In the competition to win the "Biggest Idiot at ZH Award", you're displaying some very strong material. Not sure if you cheated and stole some material from tmosley, but it looks like you might have this year's award clinched.
Oh cool. So slavery is legit as long as it's not in your backyard right?
Unless you don't watch a t.v (made in slave camps) or use a phone (made in slave camps) or just about any appliance you use (made in slave camps) How's that car you're driving in? Slave camp. How are all the things you love? Oh, that's funny because they are all made by asian slave labor.
And guess what? What do you think happens to debtor nations?
"How exactly do you stop this process? What is the mechanism whereby you will prevent US multi-nationals from offshoring middle-class jobs to people in countries who will work for a 10th of the wages of Americans?"
Pull out of NAFTA, GATT/WTO and all other overarching, one sided trade agreements and renegotiate trade agreements on a case by case basis. Stop using trade agreements as foreign policy/social engineering mechanisms to improve the 3rd world.
Stop using taxdollars to encourage companies to offshore - shut down the Ex-Im Bank and the OPIC.
Put in place regulatory disincentives to offshoring.
Put in place regulatory incentives to domestic job creation - taxpayers are better than welfare recepients.
Tariffs - yes they are passed on to the consumer as a de facto consumption tax but in my fantasy world the income tax would be reduced to compensate. The US needs to import some oil and a half dozen rare minerals. Damn near natural resource self sufficient.
Shut off the immigration spigot.
Globalization is a creation of the corporate state. It can be undone.
Regards
Jim
Aha. So you think "globalization" is a specific set of policies.
Another view (the one that I hold) is that globalization is a result of a planet that's reached the level of technological development to achieve effectively free communications.
There are plenty of things that can't be outsourced overseas. The poor in Manila can't make cocktails in DC bars, or assemble stick-built homes in Connecticut.
But if you can transmit something digitally, there's no barrier to competition. This is a PURELY technological phenomenon. You can't "undo" that with policy.
The USA has dominated the global information processing industry for so long we've forgotten that we never demonstrated our superiority at it.
Exactly right Blunderdog. You get it. The 'globalization' that is now leading to the offshoring of previously well-paid middle class professions is not the result of some business conspiracy or set of government policies. It is the inevitable result of communication and information technology revolution that now makes the sending of these jobs overseas simple and cost-effective. Distance is no longer a barrier so corporations will relentlessly search the world for the cheapest labor to perform these tasks.
Obviously the only way this work will ever come back is for wages and conditions in the US to fall dramatically to the point where it is no longer cost effective to send the work offshore.
Bob_dabolina's and NMC_EXP can bitch all they want - but their respective 'solutions' to this problem are ludicrous.
Bob supports a 'revolution' that appears to involve abolishing all business regulations in the US. Not sure how that solves the problem - its only going to speed up the process of turning the US into a 3rd world country
NMC's solution is to somehow abolish globalization via 'regulations' and tarrifs. Once again - how is that going to stop this process?
Well I dunno much about that NMC fellow, but the Dabolina thing is all for reducing the USA to third-world status. If you ditch the minimum wage and we see sufficient price deflation, it's a lot easier to hire folks for $2 a day to mow your lawn and clean your house and such.
Just so long as there's enough money to pay for the cops. Cranky old guys really need their cops.
Another view (the one that I hold) is that globalization is a result of a planet that's reached the level of technological development to achieve effectively free communications.
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Very narrowed minded.
US citizens can not accept their past. So they are stuck in propaganda.
Globalization is nothing new. It started some 500 years ago. The very birth of the US is a product of globalization. Hence the difficult situation for US citizens: they would like to bitch about globalization but in the doing, they endanger their own situation as they are a product of globalization. So the solution, natural in US citizenism, is to distort what globalization is.
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There are plenty of things that can't be outsourced overseas.
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But outsourcing has little to do with achieving 'free' communications. Outsourcing is a natural consequence in Smithian economics.
'Free' communication happened internally first in territories like the US and it does not mean forcefully outsourcing from one point to another.
Outsourcing between two territories connected by free communications is absolutely not compulsory (checked every day in the US internally)
But outsourcing between two territories under the Smithian Economics paradigm is compulsory one day or another.
Outsourcing has EVERYTHING to do with free communications when you're talking about work processing information which is transmitted digitally. I think that should've been clear.
To your point about globalization having been occurring for 500 years, why stop there? It started before humans were walking upright, and really started to take off with the development of the wheel.
If you want to keep a broad perspective.
I agree with you NCM (Jim) and add that job creation in the current USA is a long term project. One of the things we need to do is tax the hell out of consumption (what we are consuming is mostly being produced over there). Use the proceeds to lower income and corporate tax rates here so that our companies can be productive and those with jobs have more to spend and save.
Welfare needs a drastic reform--more like a 'work fare' program -- if you don't get a job in a reasonable time, you are either in a retraining program (and successful) or you get to do things that are needed around town OR your benefits are cut to bare survival. Food stamps should only be for basic meat, veggies and dairy--if you want soft drinks and twinkies then get a job.
People on welfare beyond the minimal period shouldn't get to vote--it is a conflict of interest (voting for the ones who provide the best benefits that those with jobs and paying taxes can afford).
Oh, come on, don't be a pussy. Enough with the bullshit PC half-measures. You don't give ANYTHING to the poor folks who don't work. You set up labor camps and feed them fish-heads and offal.
How else can we remain a free country?
The process has been impacting on US blue collar workers for more than two decades with factories being shuttered and production moved to Mexico, China, Indonesia etc where workers will do the same work for a fraction of the cost. Now it's the middle-class's turn to feel the pain.
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This is right. But US citizens middle class is already reacting to the process, they are fighting to prevent it. Just offer to outsource some grunt work to better a product by freeing resources to improve other more demanding products features in a room full of US citizens working middle class jobs and you get a riot ongoing. This from young adults between their 24~30s who can start howling communism as if they were cold war veterans.
Yes, indeed, it is the moment to outsource many US middle class jobs as the US has grown too rich an environment to support this kind of jobs. This job output is no longer enough valued to affor living in such top notch environment as the US.
But it wont happen as easily as it happened for blue collar jobs. I suggest you start to enquire the topic as you'll discover that these US citizens favour solutions they dismissed when blue collar workers wanted to implement them to retain their job.
Very funny actually.
Son, who pissed in your corn flakes?
Don't shoot the piano player. He's only playing the music set in front of him. Be gracious and leave a tip in the jar before going home to sleep it off.
I doubt he is the piano player... he seemed pretty sanguine about the layoff of an entire deprtment, this punk is in the upper managementas he seems to have no fear that the same "downsizing" will come to his job.
I don't agree with Trav often, but... revolution bitchez!
snotty nosed children
Hopefully they won't be heavily armed in your case, driving might be dangerous to your health.
We'll see about that butch. I for one am willing to ram my pitchfork right up a corporate exec, bankster or politician's ass long before we reach that point. LOTS of Americans will be doing the same. WW3 before then imo. I will not live in a 3rd world America where there are only 2 classes: rich and poor. Preventing that from happening is worth giving your life for as many an American soldier has done just that for the past 100 years and beyond.
Good luck with that Jonx. But you are late to the party. WW3 has already been fought and won - by India and China. It was a stealth war involving IT and globalization. The US middle-class lost. You can check the casulties down at McDonalds and WalMart - college kids with IT and accountancy degrees flipping burgers and stacking shelves.
But don't let me stop you from buying a pitchfork from one of these kids at Walmart - a pitchfork made in China of course
As I said, we'll see. Those kids will put up with that shit until they don't. For now I agree they would rather watch football and suck off their gay lovers but the time will eventually come when the American people will say enough is enough and in a gasp of irony reach for their Chinese-made pitchfork and head for NY and DC.
So your company can survive selling to Indian accountants?
butchtrucks
So how are you planning on making ends meet? You cool with doing some dumpster diving yourself?
"The US middle class needs to face the fact they are now competing in a global marketplace."
The unstated implication being that globalization was a natural evolutionary process. In fact globalization was a conscious policy decision to convert the US economy from the production of wealth to debt fueled consumerism and the F.I.R.E "economy". The FIRE economy represents making money by rubbing two pieces of paper together rather than earning money via producing a good or service having actual value.
"...unsustainable American middle-class lifestyles."
The US middle class lifestyle was quite "sustainable" prior to the US becoming a net consumer rather than producer and the worlds largest debtor rather than the largest creditor.
"Within 10 years time I expect to see the standard of living of most Americans reduced to the level of the Indian and Chinese workers we are competing with. It's going to be a long painful process - but a necessary one."
Of course, you will be an exception.
"When I start to see snotty nosed children of previously middle class US families picking through piles of garbage on the outskirts of town, looking for scraps of food (similar to what I saw in Bangalore and Hyderabad last year) that will be a good sign for me."
Careful what you wish for. In addition to the snotty nosed kids rummaging in the trash there will older and larger versions rummaging through your pockets and your home. Prepare to deal with it.
Regards
Jim
In fact globalization was a conscious policy decision to convert the US economy from the production of wealth to debt fueled consumerism and the F.I.R.E "economy".
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Maybe time to recall that globalization started before the beginning of the US, right?
You know, US citizens usually become aware of certain aspects of the system they impose on others when they are starting to fall on the wrong side of it. Until that point, it is all okay.
Globalization showing some nasty consequences to US citizens only in the last few decades does not mean globalization started a few decades back.
"Maybe time to recall that globalization started before the beginning of the US, right?"
I suppose you could claim that "globalization" started when the first hominids migrated out of Africa. The globalization I refer to is a 20th century invention.
Until the 1970's total US foreign trade ran about 15% of GDP. In other words it was a nearly closed economy. Since the mid 70's trade as a % of GDP has increased steadily, mostly imports.
From the end of WW2 to the mid 70's the middle class made steady gains in wages & salaries. During that period manufacturing employed a lot of people. Since the mid 70's real wages have steadily fallen in parallel with the decline in manufacturing jobs.
Is instant communication a factor in globalization? Of course. The free flow of information across borders is driven primarily by the private sector. However the flow of capitol across borders is controlled by governments. And for the most part the fedgov does what the financial sector wants. It wants not only to maximize profits but apparently to concentrate wealth in the top 1%.
Remember back in the 80's and early 90's there was a steady stream of assurances from the govt regarding the de-industrialization of the US. All those former factory workers would be integrated into the "new information age economy" as IT specialists....right. The fact is 50% of the population has below average intelligence and probably ambition. For a lot of folks their best destiny is to punch a clock and do some manufacturing job which creates wealth.
My point is decent paying jobs were plentiful from 1945 thru 1975 and companies were profitable despite labor unions. The rising tide did lift all boats.
Am I opposed to profits? Absolutely not.
Niether was Henry Ford when he started paying his people double the prevailing rate. He did this so they could become customers of Ford Motor Co. The man was selfish.
I am selfish in that I want my neighbors to have the opportunity to have a decent paying, wealth creating job. There are two reasons for this: (1) Since we live in a socialized economy, if my neighbor does not have a job, I get to pay for his support. (2) When the govt support stops coming, my neighbors will be inclined to help themselves to my stash.
This is not liberal altruism, it is rational self interest.
The claim that the choice is either globalization or corporate collapse is a false dichotomy. The US economy was doing fine post WW2. The US was and still could be the biggest market in the world, if more citizens had decent paying jobs.
The first law of economics is "You can't do business with someone who has no money."
Govt trade policy which promotes offshoring to and trade with the 3rd world will eventually create new customers there but reduces the customers here, so what is gained?
I recommend "The Great Betrayal" by Pat Buchanan. It includes a lot of footnoted data from the Dept of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Economic Reports to the President, the Statistical Abstracts of the US and other sources.
The book is an eye opener.
Regards
Jim
I suppose you could claim that "globalization" started when the first hominids migrated out of Africa. The globalization I refer to is a 20th century invention.
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US citizens could as you've just have.
Personally, the approach is facts and facts. I let propaganda to US citizens. Not that they are good at it, they suck at it. But US citizens can not handle facts and their nature leans them to propaganda so...
Speaking about globalization requires at least two things:
-knowledge about the globality of the world id est here that the Earth is finite. Knowledge acquired in 100 BC or something in the west.
-means to carry out globalization. And this starts with something like circumnavigation as it was done in 1522 by Magellan and Elcano.
Speaking of globalization before that is a pure non sense (thus a delight for US citizens)
What US citizens are used to refer as globalization is not globalization but simply the emerging trend that globalization is no longer that only positive for US citizens. Yep, some US citizens, who were used to be on the good side of globalization, are now slipping on the wrong side.
When I start to see snotty nosed children of previously middle class US families picking through piles of garbage on the outskirts of town, looking for scraps of food (similar to what I saw in Bangalore and Hyderabad last year) that will be a good sign for me. Then I will know the healing has begun....
Gotta agree with Trav7777... you're a piece of shit. It is one thing to resent the American middle class for being comatose or living beyond their means, but it is quite another to wish for their demise for the sake of corporate profits, and subsequently, the preservation of the plutocracy. You're the type of guy who reads the opening paragraph of A Tale of Two Cities, and then spontaneously spleefs all over your own face.
People like you make me loathe humanity. You're even worse than Republicans, and that's difficult for me to say.
Anyone pushing to preserve the cruelty and lopsidedness of capitalism until middle-class children are rummaging through garbage is definitely from the bowels of humanity.
you're a piece of shit. It is one thing to resent the American middle class for being comatose or living beyond their means, but it is quite another to wish for their demise for the sake of corporate profits, and subsequently, the preservation of the plutocracy. You're the type of guy who reads the opening paragraph of A Tale of Two Cities, and then spontaneously spleefs all over your own face.
People like you make me loathe humanity. You're even worse than Republicans, and that's difficult for me to say.
Anyone pushing to preserve the cruelty and lopsidedness of capitalism until middle-class children are rummaging through garbage is definitely from the bowels of humanity.
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Ah the limit of US citizens do goodism...
On a world scale (the one to adopt in globalization process), US citizens are the upper class, US citizens are the plutocracy.
Currently, other countries are building up a middle class.
It is funny because here, once again, one can see that US citizens do introduce themselves as middle class friendly or supporters but in reality, they can not welcome the rise of a middle class on a world scale.
In the end, you've got what you usually get with US citizens mindset: a gang approach.
US citizens is envious of the US upper class because they benefit from the rise of a middle class on the world scale. US middle class is envious of the upper class and hate on the lower class. It is the way it is.
This is basically it. The reason and the outcome. One other factor is complete wankers like you who refuse to name "the multi-national' you work for. Pussy
Macro growth is dead for a while. Keynesianism + Fiat Currency = Shift of Capital to Taxes, and the cycle repeats. Recession cycles compress, and blend. TPTB keep putting nails into the coffin...more hammer-ready jobs.
Granted this is just my little world but here are the results: I've worked construction nearly 20 years and have ran multi-million projects. I've been better part of 3 years. I thought id try non-union. They're also getting slaughtered. The company I worked for last winter only has 1 guy working right now and the owner said he has seen nothing like it in his 30 years.
2. Dealership where my wife works had 4 dealerships 5 years ago. Now they have 1. My wife and several others were recently axed.
3. Most of my friends are layed off. Granted they were in construction.
4. I just ran into a neighbor last night while out 4 wheeling that was excited he was getting layed off in 2 weeks so he could spend more time with his kids and 4 wheelers. He works in some office, not sure what. Little does he know this vacation he's looking for could turn into a real-life survival game.
5. Some other neighbors both work on an army post and both they're departments are talking cuts. Even though they have around 10 years they're at the bottom. Add to that their retired mom makes the house payment in a place they can't afford(it was 550k) with her social security check and she lives there. 3 strikes and your out.
6. The biggest chunk of my dads money, who lives with me and has kept us afloat, is tied up with none other than AIG. Yeehaw. I feel great.
7. Another neighbors 2 kids are both home now after graduating college.
8. Yet another neighbors 2 kids who are in there 30's just moved back home this week from layoffs and one is married with kids. Good thing it's a big house.
9. A friend that lives about 100 miles away is layed off and depends on the rent from the post office he owns to pay his mortgage. There's 30 people in town. It's slated for closure.
10. Another friend moved to another city thinking he could escape and bought a house. I told him not to. Then he told me work was great and he was thinking about buying a new truck. I told him it was an instant layoff ticket if he did. Well he did, now the trucks being repossed and he's renting out the house(trying to) and moving back in with mom.
Everywhere I look all I see is pure shit. I'm one of the lucky few, my place is paid for and I have few bills but things certainly aren't rosy here and my pension credit is in critical status. So since we all know where the markets heading im not counting on it. I don't know....im gonna try and hold the beer to 1 day a week and been working out like mad. It won't be any fun being a fat slob with no retirement and not be able to fend for yourself now would it.
Oh and then I get to listen to the likes of 2 sisterinlaws that get all their news from fox and think everything is turning around and are both involved in the healthcare industry and think everything is hunky dory. Let's examine that: millions going without ins, millions more losing it, medicare on the chopping block. Nowadays you go the hospital with a hangnail and get a bill for $250,000.00 and then my other sisterinlaw sends you a $1000.00 bottle of oxygen and then you have $500.00 daily physical therapist visits which are mostly worthless in a lot of cases and probably a multi-thousand pill program to boot.............you tell me---does that sound sustainable in this environment??? My conclusion is no it is not and very few are safe from what's coming. In the future the present days $40hr nurse best skill will be treating their own family from illness and injuries that are acquired thru trying to survive the coming depression.
@noble, thank you.
Hang in there, you seem like a good person to have on one's side.
There is a better way, rsnoble. Come to the tropics where you can live like a king on less than $800/month, have domestic staff to care for you for $35/head, good beer costs $0.50 and a carton (10 packs) of Marlboros is $7. You can read about it on my blog, come and visit!
Can I take my guns? If not then fuck that. Every place on Earth is going to the shitter sooner rather than later and I'd prefer to be here with my guns and supplies than in some 3rd world shit hole where I am the only white guy for miles and everyone knows I'm the one with money. Sold to you champ.
We'll be moving to Makati early next year.
I'm sure prices will be higher, but WTF?
I'll monitor your blog.
I'm gonna check that out. Although I do have thoughts about what the gun guy said. I have lots of guns and believe this contagion will spread. I still think it's worth looking into. Dad has around $200k in the bank and I could get around that for this place.
Duke and Progress Energy "Merger"...laying off about 1,000 here in the Triangle, NC. More mergers = more corp profits = less workers = recovery?
Bullish for Career Transition Corporation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWuHcb7dlws
Green shoots are for pandas. As for the rest of us, it is pandemonium.
September 2011: White House initiates expensive job program.
GOP says - No way, to Expensive!
January 2012: Unemployment is way up. White House states that it’s the GOP’s problem because they would not approve POTUS’s job program.
GOP says - ??????
“Tactics mean doing what you can with what you have” or the White House playbook by Saul Alinsky
Gop says ... America is done with your foolish spending and said so in the 2010 election.
all those great seasonal summer jobs will be ending soon........
I think we have been getting jobbed quite a bit the past few years.
My problem is that I can't find quality employees looking for work. For example: It's a 60k a year job that I've listed three times because the applicant pool is complete garbage. You have the people with zero skill sets the lazy ones that can't be even bothered with filling out the application with a more than one sentence description of their job duties or attach a resume. Then there are the interview antics, you have the flat out bull shitters, the inappropriately dressed (t-shirt, shorts & flip flops - really? I sent that guy packing 5 seconds after he walked in the door) the late ones who don't even say sorry I couldn't find a parking space (something anything) the goof balls who lay across the lobby couch texting and finish their text before getting up to greet me. Hell I could care less if you have a college degree, I like real world experience.
What the hell is going on? I had better applicant pools when the econ was booming. After 185 applications 4 were interview worthy. 1 was a no show, 2 were poor, neither could articulate but there was 1, thank goodness for the 1. I offered the job immediatly....
lol....
What was the position?
Bernank and crew actually killing the opportunity to work at the local GAS station or local store or in any small biz.. Basically 15-20 years ago you can survive by pumping a gas or just flipping burgers, delivering the pizza.. And now Pack of cigarets 7-15$, Six-pack of beer 10$, and lousy lunch at the nearest Burger king could cost you $10 too, GAS 4$/gallon, not to mention rent and other expenses.. As you said $60k Job might be sounds OK, but I was making that money back in 1998 and right now I need 50k (cash) just to pay taxes, insurances and services (family of 4) and food not included.. $60k perhaps is still OK for single dude.. Salaries didn't rise for the last 12-15 years.. It's making more sense to stay on welfare than work, that's the reality.
Bernank and crew actually killing the opportunity to work at the local GAS station or local store or in any small biz.. Basically 15-20 years ago you can survive by pumping a gas or just flipping burgers, delivering the pizza.. And now Pack of cigarets 7-15$, Six-pack of beer 10$, and lousy lunch at the nearest Burger king could cost you $10 too, GAS 4$/gallon, not to mention rent and other expenses...
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Bernanke and crew have not worked to that goal. On the contrary, they have worked to postpone the day it will no longer be possible for a burger flipper to live in the US.
It is the result of Smithian economics.
When one keeps concentrating wealth onto one territority, the cost of living on this territory rises.
And the US has concentrated more and more wealth on its territory for the last decades.
When one lives in one floor house neighbourhood, one might live thanks to the valuation of flipping burgers output. But it is not possible to live on that job when the neighbourhood is Mac Mansion.
So what? Do US citizens expect to live on Park Avenue thanks to flipping burgers? no.
So why do they expect to live in the US when they have turned the US in the Park Avenue of the world?
Some US citizens to try to explain that? Please, the attempt would be funny. And fun is good, aint it?
Maybe a lot of folks are still unaware that they are just tired of work, tired of the hamster wheel, burned out and spent, subconciously perhaps realizing they have been had, that the "game" is rigged against them. So why fuck around with a "job",.....eh!
Hannibal hits the grand slam! I agree 100%. I feel that way myself. I was almost wishing that I would get laid off a year ago when my company was downsizing so I could get out of this fucking rat race and have a valid reason for dumping this severely under water house in this illegal alien/section 8 infested neighborhood but the Gods 'smiled' on me and I made the cut...
I disagree somewhat where I prefer to have work. The financial perils of my divorce, having to start over, instructed me on the true nature of the hamster wheel and lets just say I started examining the cage for weaknesses some time ago. Its been fun messing with the cat.
The job is in I.T.
60k a year earns a good living around here.
All this talk about "burn out" "been had" and so on is nothing new by a long shot. Those kinds of things have been going on since long before any of our great grandparents were alive. Work for the majority of us isn't fun, hell I don't remember my assigned chores as a kid being any fun. I see a lot of people with the so called fun jobs such as musicians saying the same things also. Once it became work all the fun was sucked right out of it.
I love a quote from an American Indian who said something to the effect of "back in the old days the women did all the work in the tribes and the men hunted, fished and fucked their women all night. Leave it to a white man to come along and fuck it all up." LOL...now obviously it was no fun for the women but I think you get the point.
During the post-war period when the top marginal tax-rates were batshit insane, the low-end of the wage scale still could see that they "earned" a decent standard of living compared to upper management and the owners.
That's a pretty major difference that shouldn't be neglected.
The past 50 years efforts to increase wealth disparity have been incredibly successful. The results come with drawbacks, though.
Especially since it doesn't become equal to the subsidized housing, unemployment benefits, food stamps and (un)earned income credit until it is over $40k
"Can you imagine a federal agent saying, 'You're going to jail for five years' and what you do is sort wood in the factory?" said Mr. Juszkiewicz, recounting the incident. "I think that's way over the top." Gibson employees, he said, are being "treated like drug criminals."
Obama's armed Feds breaking down the doors at Gibson Guitars because they are not union.
Good job electing Obama you dumb shits.
Gibson refrained from joining DEM favoring, Citizens United enabled, money orgy PAC.
gonna be awful tough buying more gold if i end up jobless. depressions suck, bitchez
Jobz are so 2010. Welcome the new era with an open mind.
First the manufacturing jobs went, and all that was left were service industry and banking jobs. Now the service industry and banking jobs are gone. All thats left is what? We are running out of industries to destroy.
A few more left such as Fast Food and 7-11 to be destroyed and then it is truly over.
Great Hope and Change and more Food Stamps and UE Benefits for the citizens of the USA.
All thats left is what? We are running out of industries to destroy.
POLITICAL CLASS, BITCHEZ
Military Industrial Complex.
What we got left is healthcare and education, I mean sickcare and brainwashing plus some jobs at Apple headquarters.
We can all be lawyers, MSM contributors, bloggers and porn stars....don't worry not all is lost...
Robo-signed mortgage docs date back to late 1990s
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Robosigned-mortgage-docs-date-apf-30742469...
And the hits keep on coming.
No end in sight from this is there. Its over.
The "Jobs Plan" is likely specifically designed to get the President's political opposition so apoplectic that it will not see the light of day as signed legislation. It will be the final big initiative Obama can point to, as he gets all FDR 1936 during the campaign, where his opposition had finally gone too far in obstructing. The plan will be a political tool to use by the Dems to demonize the GOP. Its all about 2012 elections.
That, or the plan will simply be way too little too late, not get passed into law and therefore, NO PLAN.
If that happens, NO PLAN, we will need no further sign that Washington has given up totally on the working class.
Because right now, there is nothing else on the horizon that signifies positive changes for labor demand for US workers.
Obama's Job Plan - Home Depot Coupon for a hoe and vegetable seeds.
The too little too late option?
Can I request a blonde hoe or are they not doing requests?
Depression was a word used because panic was such an ugly truth. Then the Great Depression was so horrible that word was tainted and we had to move to recession. Various multi-word forms such as down-turn have been tried but none have caught on.
It is similar to the progression of what to call black people. A new expression will last until it is said with an ugly face as an obvious slur. Then a new name will replace the one corrupted by misuse.
Changing the word doesn't really change the reality or people's feelings no matter how we try.
You want to change what is going on in America. Start by not voting for the same dumbass congressman/congesswoman that each and everyone thinks is not the problem. Here is your clue: If the guy/gal is a career politician he/she is the problem. How else do you think things have gotten this screwed up. They have been around to watch or create the mess. Make them live in the mess now. Make them unemployed.
The same goes for Obama. He said he could fix our problems and now he acts like he didn't see or realize how big the problems were. Said he would fight to bring jobs back to this country. Yeah, when is that going to happen? How is that going to happen. I don't believe a word he says anymore. Google Gibson guitars and DOJ and tell me he wants jobs to stay in this country. He needs to go and the next guy needs to go if he doesn't listen and bring jobs back. Free trade is you guessed it BS. Americans can compete on a level playing field with anyone. However level playing fields will never happen when you the American worker is competing against slave labor in China or the dirt poor of India. End the faux free trade agreements and bring on the tariffs in order to level the playing field. These people who are in Washington if you have not figured it out are more concerned about jobs in other countries than they are in keeping or bringing them back here. Don't believe it ... why else is there a G7, G20, UN, or IMF al routinely supported by the ruling elite. I ask you have these organizations helped you the American middle class?
I think you are Dead On! I hope you're not..
"Here is your clue: If the guy/gal is a career politician he/she is the problem."
That statement might cause some friction among ZH readers. Ron Paul has been in the government for 35 years, and that qualifies him as a "career politician" Are you indicating sir, that Ron Paul (being a "career" politician") is the problem?
Your "solutions" seem arcane and constipated. I read your comment twice and had no idea what you were talking about.
Here's an idea...limit the government. Boom. Cut the legs off of the government and let the people have control over private enterprise.
One other thing if you can't make sense out of the commentary then don't vote.
What was the first thing?
It was reported that the CEO of Gibson is a Republican contributor and the CEO of Martin ( a principal competitor) is a Democratic contributor. Gibson has been raided 2x and Martin?...0. Chris Martin has gone on to say in an NPR article that he supports the Lacey Act to curb illegal logging, and that he does not buy wood from any supposedly illegal sources. Of Course.
Just bring back draft for anyone that is between 18 and 68. That'll do it.
what would bring all the jobs back..
tariffs TARIFFS that does not take anything but the signing of regs and legislation.
then business will deal with it..for those idiots who cling to NWO mind chains your heads will explode if our gov ever woke up and did it.
gotta have balls to do it .as all our world class economists will tell you
Tariffs are bad bad BAD..(bad for the elite that is)..who fuckn listens to those ass hats after the last 4 years deserves what is coming.
blah blah blah blah blah. everyone has an opinion. Who the hell really knows anything. Keep talking a good game and maybe you will say something that turns out right!!!
Many Americans have been in an economic depression for 3 years now. Nothing has changed for millions of them.
At least I know most of them are amuzing themselves to death on iPad and Facebook.
LOSERS
Unemployment is about to surge.........Every Mexican I know is gainfully employed.
If so many people are either unemployed or on welfare in the U.S., why do I have to hire Mexicans to mow
my lawn. Oh this is a good one, and typical of the problems that plague this nation. Old Dominion
Freight Lines told Alcoholic drivers that they will no longer be driving for Old Dominion and are getting
sued because of their statement. Way too many f#*$ing lawyers in this country. In U.S. we have 10
lawyers for every doctor, in china there are 10 doctors for every lawyer. When is the last time you went
to the ER and saw an American doctor? If you did, you can bet he was trained overseas. End rant.
wouldn't it be great if only 400,000 people were unemployed?
the author doesn't seem to grasp that this is the weekly number of people filing unemployment claims for the very first time
Wait, I was told unemployment was going down, and I was told Obama had a plan to generate even MORE jobs, which would lower unemployment even more, in fact I was getting worried that we would have to open the borders to get enough able bodied people here to fill all the new jobs, I even read it in the LA Times, and I told my sister that the 36 month job hunt would be over soon for all those reasons, I lied to her?? I'm disillusioned
Agreed ,unemployment is and will rise.No charts or graph`s needed .it is and has been obvious by visual observation.
Good day to all ZHers
Say hello to $42.00 silver for me
the globalist BS ran deep on this thread..me thinks one too many economists has been posting on ZH..out source of jobs has very little to do with tech, and mostly due to policy. as I said those who think this trend was not created are useful idiots of the elite and multinational corps. case in point ave usa tariff 2-3% ave tariff world wide on US made goods 20% plus. not too hard to understand unless you are a trained economist.
Why don't we just refer to this as a 'banana'? It worked for Alfred Kahn back in the first Carter administration.
Collapsenet has been very clear on this, the unwinding that started at the end of July is very much like a big snowball rolling down the mountainside. I do not know if anything can slow it now except a complete tear-down of the entire infinite growth monetary paradigm. Debt is the Super Gravity pushing things downward. -- Michael C. Ruppert
http://goo.gl/KbSU3
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