Guest Post: Will Tsipras Blow Up Europe?

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics

Will Tsipras Blow Up Europe?

The world’s eyes are on the Greek election, and whether or not Greeks will elect New Democracy’s Samaras (widely-assumed to be pro-bailout, pro-status quo), or SYRIZA’s Tsipras (widely-assumed to be anti-bailout, anti-status quo).

The Eurocrats have very sternly warned Greece against voting against austerity. Merkel said:

It is extremely important for Greeks to elect lawmakers who would respect the terms of the bailout.

In recent days, opinion has swung back toward the status quo, with Intrade rating New Democracy’s chances of winning the largest number of seats at 65%, and SYRIZA at just 33%.

While I cannot rule out New Democracy winning, I think that I’d flip those odds. Greece widely reviles German-imposed austerity, but fears the consequences of leaving the Euro — 85% of Greeks want to stay in. A vote for New Democracy would reflect fear of Drachmatization. Meanwhile, a vote for SYRIZA would seem to reflect the idea that through brinkmanship and the threat of Euro collapse, Greece can negotiate their way to a much more favourable bailout position.

So why do I think SYRIZA are the likelier winner? The election is on a knife-edge, so I think the difference might be football.

Greece — against all odds — managed to bumble through the Euro 2012 group stage, beating Russia 1-0 and likely setting up a poetic quarter final against Germany. I think that that victory against Russia will fire enough Greeks to try their luck and assert themselves against austerity.

For Greece, this is an important election. Inside the euro, their heavily state-dependent economy will continue to suffer scathing austerity. Outside the euro, they can freely debase, and — as Nigel Farage has noted — enjoy the benefits of a cheaper currency like renewed tourism and more competitive industry. If Greeks want growth sooner rather than much later, they should choose life outside the euro (and by voting for Tsipras and trying tough negotiating tactics, they will be asking to be thrown out).

But for the rest of the world, and the rest of Europe, this is all meaningless. As Ron Paul has noted, when the banking institutions need the money, central banks — whether it’s the ECB, or the Fed, or the BoE, or a new global central superbank — will print and print and print. Whether Greece is in or out, when the time comes to save the financial system the central bankers will print. That is the nature of fiat money, as much as the chickenhawks at the ECB might pretend to have hard-money credentials.

Tsipras, though — as a young hard-leftist — would be a good scapegoat for throwing Greece out of the Eurozone (something that — in truth — the core seems to want).

The real consequence throughout Europe as austerity continues to bite into state-dependent, high-unemployment economies will be more political fragmentation and support for political extremes, as the increasingly outlandish and unpopular political and financial solutions pushed by Eurocrats — specifically more and deeper integration, and banker bailouts — continue to help special interests and ignore the wider populations.

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Mr. Fix's picture

 

 

 "Will Tsipras Blow Up Europe?"

It will blow without his help!

 

strongband's picture

Greece will stay in the euro, there is no other option for the euro. Why is this even being debated here? The notion of a Greek exit is mainstream.

TWSceptic's picture

You couldn't be more wrong. MSM talks about exit but assumes the EU will not allow it, non MSM talks about the necessity of exit and the high probability of other countries leaving as well. There's no way this eurozone is sustainable over time.

maxmad's picture

Grexit is here!  Bye-Bye Urkel (I mean Merkel) good luck keeping the Euro going!

strongband's picture

Sorry, you must not include CNN as MSM? The greek elections are a massive media beat up - how many headlines show: "what it means for you if Greece leaves the Eurozone"... etc. etc.

The reality is there will be no leaving of the Eurozone as it's all for one, and one for all, or nothing at all!!

francis_sawyer's picture

Greece leaves the Eurozone & the Eurozone replaces them with Baylor, Texas Tech, & Boise State...

DanDaley's picture

So you're combining Greeks and end-zones?  How appropriate.

Peter Pan's picture

Germany fucked up badly by not keeping an eye on the billions given to Greece as subsidies after she entered the Euro. Money wasted.

German banks and French banks lent money without due diligence. Money lost and Merkel forced to bail out banks.

Germany inssts on austerity to the point that it turns into a humanitarian disaster as well as killing revenues, employment etc

Germany allows different rules for Spain bailout. Great example for all others.

Merkel sees herself as some kind of Thatcher and Lagarde as some kind of Delphic priestess. Both however will be burned as witches by the time it is all over.

Tsipras will emerge as a folk hero if hardliners try to screw Greece.

Bleeding Fart's picture

Merkel is the mythical Europa personified. She will take the bull by the horns and save the Euro, putting the EU on the path towards deeper integration and greater prosperity. In the future, hers will be the first face they put on the currency, in appreciation of her willingness to save the Union against all odds.

LEAVE MERKEL ALONE!!!!

Olympia's picture

 

Germans are proved to be the easy solution to breach Europe’s door. Whoever wishes to “set foot” on Europe and demolish it, the only thing he has to do is to “fool” the Germans. For a second time in less than fifty years, Europe’s idiots become the victims of foreigners and they serve their interests at the expense of Europe...

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/02/germany-disgrace-of-europe.html

_____________________

The German traitors of Europe along with the Phoenicians from Asia may have forced Europe to get down from the "back” of the Greek “bull”, but it remains to be seen how they shall pull it through with the “bull”.

 

AnAnonymous's picture

The German traitors of Europe along with the Phoenicians from Asia

_____________________________

No. The germans are not Europeans. They are Indo-Europeans. They come from Asia. No difference here with the Phoenicians.

Belarusian Bull's picture

Relax, everyone comes from Africa anyway,

DanDaley's picture

You're right, but we're talking about a shorter time-frame.  Which reminds me, when is some so-called "white" guy going to bring a court case claiming that he is genetically African-American?  All "white" people are on par with Obama in this regard since his people never went through slavery, but they still get the benefits of preferential treatment.

Oracle of Kypseli's picture

An aquaintance of mine was born in Lybia by Italian parents and immigrated to the US. I say he is truly a white African American (or American African). Geographical origin should not play a role in identifying a race.

Italian American does not necessarily mean white and African American does not necessarily mean black. 

Political correctness is just as bad as racism.

Same thing with being vegetarian which is more of a religion or ideology than diet selection.

fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Except African Americans. THey come from guilt.

AnAnonymous's picture

US citizens know no guilt.

With US citizens, it is always somebody else's fault.

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

AnAnonymous said:

US citizens know no guilt.

With US citizens, it is always somebody else's fault.

With AnAnonymousism, it's always US citizens' fault.

AnAnonymousitizenism at work.

TNTARG's picture

You wrote my words, pal. We all came from Africa.

And the so called "First World" managed to put their macroeconomic tools in the hands of a few banksters, germans included. It doesn't look clever at all.

Here are the results. At a certain point we'll all have to deal with the consequences of this corporative huge power and do something about or adapt to live under this amazingly INGSOC  like global government.

GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Muffa-Africa or Mutha-Africa or Muvva-Africa?

DanDaley's picture

All of the Europeans (except the Finns) are Indo-European -the 4 main groups are: Greek, Latinate, Celtic, and Germanic -hence you can see the origin of the problems of today; the people of the north prepare for tomorrow, while the people of the south live for today. 

AnAnonymous's picture

Non sequitur and no.

People from Euskali are not Indo Europeans. They are Europeans.

The Black Irish are not Indo Europeans. They are Europeans.

Funnily enough, both have been constantly belittled by the Indo Europeans through association to negroes.

For example, it was common for the Germans living in England (since English are mostly Germans) to naturalize themselves by claiming that the Black Irish could be explained by closeness to negroes.

Nope. Black Irish could be explained because they are Europeans who are different from Asians like the Indo Europeans.

Same trick performed on Euskalians after they beat the frankish.

Etc...

Germans are not Europeans. They are Indo Europeans. They come from Asia.

Olympia's picture

Everybody had something to say against Greece and its people. Everybody had something to remember from his visit to Greece or his associations with a Greek man living in Germany. In any case, they do not belong to the educated part of society so that they can have any other knowledge of Greece; know its quality and generosity. These people only know some Greek immigrants to Germany and a few waiters from their vacations in Greece. These people accuse Greece today at large. They seek for Greek people in their working environment to hurl insults at them. The so called moral German leadership had once again been satisfied. Its flock had once again hastened to execute its orders. 

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.nl/2012/05/greece-among-salem-witches.html

 German leadership’s goal had been achieved. It had managed to arouse German hysteria against Greece. Germans had turned Greece into a target with such an unprecedented ferocity and in an outermost violent manner that the whole of Europe had been terrified. They had made the first move. The witch had been pinpointed and all Europeans of all doctrines had seen it. None of them would like to be in the witch’s shoes. Greece’s suffering strengthened Merkel who pointed her finger at the sinner and her stern look searched for anyone dubious among everyone else.

Greece was now the ultimate European anti-paragon. It would be righteously punished and its suffering would serve as a teaching example. From that moment on, Greece would permanently remain in the spotlight so that no one forgot about the witch; so that no one forgot that he is invited to watch the ceremony of its public burn at the stake. This is why 2% of the European economy has 90% negative publicity and acts as if it is fully responsible for the problematic situation this huge economy is in.

Olympia's picture

 

What is happening today in a Europe whose member is the so called competitive and honest Germany is a new plunge of Europe in the medieval era. In reality, Europe imitates its past. Some people perpetuate an old intra-Christian dispute that has begun with Luther. It is a dispute that has drenched Europe in blood umpteen times. This is something that cannot escape notice any more, since the States that undergo a financial crisis have started to break away. It is obvious now that some Protestants perpetuate the Thirty Years’ War; a war that has drenched Europe in blood umpteen times; a war, expression of who were the so called World Wars; the World Wars that had been provoked by Protestants and had aimed at conquering Europe for a start, and then the rest of the world.

By virtue of these facts, we can understand that, despite the anti-Hellenic rage, their real goal is not Greece. Greece is too small a prey to be a target of such a big predator. Greece is the sacrificial animal that will be taken to the altar for the purpose of terrorizing the rest of Europe. Protestants’ actual target is the rich Catholic European World. They want to destroy Greece for the mere purpose of future reference and terrorization of those who they aim to plunder, which is the European Catholic World. Out of coincidence, all of the so called sinful European States are non-protestant. Only those who follow Merkel and they too point their finger to the sinners are Protestants.

 

DanDaley's picture

Black Irish come from the shipwrecked sailors of the Spanish Armada in 1588 as it made its way back to Spain around Scotland and the west coast of Ireland; they were taken in by the Irish Catholics.  This is very well understood.

AnAnonymous's picture

Black Irish come from the shipwrecked sailors of the Spanish Armada in 1588 as it made its way back to Spain around Scotland and the west coast of Ireland; they were taken in by the Irish Catholics. This is very well understood.
_____________________________

Made me laugh. More German propaganda. Doubled with US citizen propaganda.

You know, on warships, you do have that many women. Hard for them to mate.

Second, you do not start that large a population by pushing on shipwrecked people.

Third: the fate of the stranded sailors is well known indeed, they were slain because they encumbered the Irish.

Fourth: DNA do not lie.

Nope. Black Irish are Europeans. They descend from the populations who lived in Europe before the Indo European Celts invaded and killed.

It is very likely that the Fianna tales speak about the deeds of these people after the celtic conquests being reduced to the status of permanent mercenaries, roaming war bands.

They were irishized for the cause. Just like the Germans turned the Euskali people into Muslims after the Germans got their asses turned back to themselves.

AnAnonymous's picture

the people of the north prepare for tomorrow, while the people of the south live for today.

_____________________________________

Made me laugh. Quite a good one.

Another false dichotomy brought to you courtesy of a US citizen.

The sure point is that US citizens consume as if there were no tomorrow. Which might happen as soon they have reached their goal: depletion of resources.

Self fulfilling prophecy.

DanDaley's picture

So according to you, a people living in a place for 5,000 years (Germanic people in what's now called Germany) isn't sufficient to make them residents of that place?  That's just insane.

AnAnonymous's picture

So according to you, a people living in a place for 5,000 years (Germanic people in what's now called Germany) isn't sufficient to make them residents of that place? That's just insane.
__________________________________________

So what is the limit? What is the number of years required to be turned into something?

Please tell, lets have a laughter here.

JOYFUL's picture

made me chortle with glee!

"People from Euskali are not Indo Europeans. They are Europeans...The Black Irish are not Indo Europeans. They are Europeans.//Funnily enough, both have been constantly belittled by the Indo Europeans through association to negroes...."

funny that, reminds a bit of the problem of Han Citizen hegemonism...

Tibetans are not Han citizens...nor are Uyghurs, although  forced to parade around in foreign Han-made hanmedowns and eat poisonous products made by proletarian Kapitalist Roaders...all the while being belittled as 'monkeys' and 'backwards' folks...

Kultural Imperialism...with a side dish of phony pathos for perfectly normal peeple...yup....the big nose white boned foreign devils still have a lot to learn from the stewpots of Han Citizenism!

AnAnonymous's picture

Tibetans are not Han.

It has nothing to do with citizenship.

If you want to see breach on citizenship, take a look at the US of A.

They stand high on the performance.

Plus later, other US citizen nations.

Look for excellence. Dont waste your time on Chinese for this kind of things. They are small players and the most common thing you learn from small players is how to play small.

Think big. As a US citizen, you'll see it, it is natural for you to consider that bigger than biggest is not big enough.

Dead Canary's picture

The Basque's are not Indo-Europeans

AnAnonymous's picture

They are not.

They are Europeans.

Germans are Indo Europeans. Germans come from Asia.

Dead Canary's picture

Indo-European is a language group. Not a people.

Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

MERKEL is just another cheap keynesian whore.

Fuck her...

TheGardener's picture

Condolences on your down votes. My heart is still bleeding too for this original arian beauty on this steer, old and bitchy as she might appear.

Europa to the slaugtherhouse is the call of the day for deflection. None of the arguments keeping our
American world afloat will last for another day when not even our own empire subjects keep obeying.

Merkel will fail us as ever, but she whimsically is resembling us.

TheGardener

strongband's picture

Greece will stay in the euro, there is no other option for the euro. Why is this even being debated here? The notion of a Greek exit is mainstream and far from what the 'core' really want.

maxmad's picture

Why post it twice Strongban?  You fiqure the more times you say, the more likely you'll believe the BS?  GREXIT!!!

financial apocalyptic contagion's picture

aziz is such a retard

victory on the football field has little or no bearing on the vote off it

does he really think the greeks are like, "yesss we go through the group stages of the EURO 2012, ok lets fuk the EURO and go for the drachma"

if anything this sends the opposite msg of "hey we can be succesful even in the EURO economy"

Obviously, I wud want that they leave, but its not happening this time- anti-climax monday

YuropeanImbecille's picture

I am no fan of the left, communism is a civilization killer. However this man can not blow anything up, he has to do what he belives is right for his people, not the judeo-satanic markets.

 

 

fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

I am so glad that financially capable muslism never use their money in furtherance of religious dogma. We are so lucky that never happens, No way they could get past all that judea-christiian money. The current POTUS is not influenced by islamists in anyway. The market place of ideas is the only thing that mattters in Chicago.

Dick Darlington's picture

85% of greeks want euro, lol. Wonder what the number would look like if the robbed tax payer money stopped flowing towards Greece... Little has actually reached Greece society though since the robbed taxpayer money has just been floated through Greece into the coffers of the over sized, over leveraged, under capitalised insolvent megabanks in Europe.

Dead Canary's picture

85% said want to stay in the euro.

92% said want public spending levels to return to where they were

98% said "they want a pony"

Abraxas's picture

99% are against recognizing Macedonia under that name.

aleph0's picture

Wow ... Rated 4 x 5-Stars ... obviously Greece reads ZH 
;-)

Bendromeda Strain's picture

85% of Greeks are afraid of the unknown, no surprise there. They need to ring up Iceland and trade for some fortitude. The informed world outside of the bank media would credit them gratefully for pushing over the derivative Tower of Mammon.

 

Uhhhh let's get ready to rumblllllllle! 

pain_and_soros's picture

Saw the headline yesterday, Greece staying in Euro

 They beat Russia 1-0

falak pema's picture

I thought Europe was already blown up by Merkel Hollande stand-off; as here :

Europe Will Splinter No Matter What Happens In Greece; 'France Has At Most Three Months' Says German Official - Business Insider

If the BI oracle says its over then its over, whatever...happens in...Athens. 

Blue Dog's picture

They won't  "enjoy the benefits of a cheaper currency". Everything will cost double what it costs today. That includes products produced in Greece. Since inported tomatoes will cost more Greek farmers will charge more for their tomatoes too.