Guest Post: Worse Than 2008

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Wed, 12/21/2011 - 12:50 | 2001384 achmachat
achmachat's picture

doom has never been this beautiful.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 12:55 | 2001404 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

thx :-)

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:01 | 2001423 redpill
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They just fired a half-trillion Euro nuclear missile into the face of the European Debt Kraken, and it just ate it up and smiled, hungry for more.  

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:24 | 2001506 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Notice how NO ONE will send their GOLD to any other bank or country to pay down the debt...

Get rid of the electrons and paper!  

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 14:50 | 2001808 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I say wake up to gold's potential thud. The thud that will be heard around the world.

Heck, the Dragon Family is out, gloves off, in US court... bruce k wrote about it too. How many tons? Mind boggling numbers, tin-foil hat nirvana and if true a free-gold-killer.

Holy moly....b...dnumb!

Gold will Fold.

ori

This is what I thought a year and a bit ago.

/an-opportunity-and-a-golden-warning/

And those circle charts.....beautiful! Just beautiful. Ironic, since it's a grim picture they paint, but beautifully.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 15:19 | 2001897 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

If there were more gold out there than we know about it, enough to back all the trillions of fiat and debt, there would be no reason to suppress pm prices and no reason for central banks to buy, and no reason to kick the can.  This rumor flies in the face of reality.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 16:04 | 2002043 Oh regional Indian
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Smiddy, it's war of another kind. Of course shit hits the fan from time to time. It would rock the shit out of the system. And it seems legit. These are big boys and they have long histories and memories.

ori

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 15:19 | 2001898 Ag1761
Ag1761's picture

These charts are simply stunning. I was just about coping until I came to the US chart, now there's a set of fat lines.

Also, wonder why the UK is into Ireland for so much? I reckon this is what it cost them to get the IRA to stop.

France is dead.

 

Ori, why the link to invest in running shoe technology, I didn't get that.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 16:01 | 2002033 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Was a post I wrote, started out about Gold manipulation/doom and ended up being a "This is my plan and you are welcome to partake" thing. Thus.

ori

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 16:24 | 2002128 Ag1761
Ag1761's picture

Seems pretty apt, thanks.

I'd be looking at running shoe technology if I was a US Citizen after reading this

 

https://www.fbo.gov/utils/view?id=d74252eb90a97743ba617c181a428427

 

I am really beginning to think that my pile of silver, my 3 acres of arable land and newly acquired bow making skills might just not be enough.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 17:44 | 2002427 CompassionateFascist
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This is in case you live in an urban area when the EBT cards stop working.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:27 | 2001517 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Your post reminds me of this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHr0XwPRMDo

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 14:24 | 2001733 iDealMeat
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+2    One for the clip.   One for it being in Spanish..    good form.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:28 | 2001521 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

OMG thank you, I really needed that!

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:31 | 2001532 Vagabond
Vagabond's picture

This article over complicates the issue.  The true root of our problems is a debt based world reserve currency.  Of course there is going to be endless printing and massive new debt creation in the end stage of this ponzi scheme as growth subsides.  You can't grow to infinity.  That's the obvious flaw in all these crazy Keynsian policies.  The emporer has no clothes.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 14:00 | 2001664 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Similar to DEC 2008, US bond yields incl costs and inflation are around 0% or negative.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 14:29 | 2001750 tarsubil
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I think it is you cannot force people to grow to infinity. You cannot manage infinite growth. With freedom comes growth generally. With freedom you can also choose not to take part.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 14:36 | 2001775 Thisson
Thisson's picture

Triffin Dilemna, bitchez!

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 15:18 | 2001893 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Yep.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 14:22 | 2001729 rex-lacrymarum
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Here it is argued that the ECB's measures continue to be underestimated:

this is on the LTRO: http://www.acting-man.com/?p=12622

but to fully follow the lines of argument one should probably begin with the analysis of the original decision

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=12317

and the follow-up regarding the ECB's transformation into 'Europe's biggest bad bank': http://www.acting-man.com/?p=12519

PS: sorry for spamming, but these provide an interesting look at the debate over the how important the ECB's interventions are.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:02 | 2001430 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

"One of the most important things we need to track is simply untrackable, and that is market perception. When faith in a faith-based money system vanishes, the game is pretty much over."

I would add that trust and confidence are 100% vital for a functioning global investment scheme. MFing Global has shattered that confidence. The effects of this are just beginning to be felt. The end result will be a mass exodus of paper markets and "runs" on financial institutions of all types.

Yes, it's much worse than 2008. 2012 is going to be a very mean year.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:40 | 2001582 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Dude, MF Global was just a company run into the ground by its kindergarten level trading knowledge boss; two weeks from now nobody will even remember the name. What do you know about LTCM, for instance? NOthing. But it was much more significant; for a month.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:58 | 2001655 tmosley
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Wow, you have no idea what you are talking about.  

MF Global proved that that a, your broker might just steal from you to cover bad bets, and much more significantly b, contrary to popular opinon, exchanges will NOT make you whole when your broker pulls something like that.  The CME said just a few months ago that they had more than a hundred billion dollars worth of guarantees for just such an eventuality as MF Global, but now we see that they can't or won't even cover just over a billion.

If you know anything about futures exchanges, you will understand that they exist for two purposes.  They provide a centralized price discovery mechanism AND insure that trades are executed such that one bad actor won't become the liability of all involved parties.  Now that we see that the second is no longer in effect, and with the ongoing suspicions regarding price manipulation, there is no longer any point to the continuation of the CME.  

This is the worst thing that has happened in the 150 year history of futures trading.  What kind of agenda are you pushing in your hamfisted attempts to talk down the implications of this event?

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 14:28 | 2001745 Apocalicious
Apocalicious's picture

And which of those lessons weren't already largely available to any one who was paying attention? (Lehman, anyone. By and large the same thing, just a little different flavor). IMO, his point is the market WON'T LEARN from this. It has a short attention span, and it will keep making the same mistakes it always makes. And in this case, sh1t is going to get worse before it really hits the fan, at some point down the road.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 14:58 | 2001840 tmosley
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Lehman didn't comingle accounts.  No-one lost their money, nor was anyone left exposed to market fluctuations without the ability to close out positions.  Further, no physical, allocated assets belonging to customers were seized.

Big, BIG difference.

That said, I knew the paper markets were screwed as soon as I learned about QE1, and got out within a few months.  This event should shatter the faith of everyone that is left.  The fact that it hasn't speaks to the immense inertia of the normalcy bias in the mainstream.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 15:32 | 2040243 Apocalicious
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True, but people had collateral frozen for LONG periods of time through the Lehman London brokerage. If you didn't learn to scrutinize your prime broker (their operations, credit profile, business risk, legal structure, riesgo pais) as a source of counter party risk (independent from exchange regulations and gaurantees) then you weren't paying attention. A strong counterparty to a non-deliverable cash-settled OTC contract actually looked less risky to me than a shitty FCM.

 

And I agree - it should remove the market's blind faith, but I know that normalcy bias (& you forget recency bias - the tendency to project the immediate past into the future) will trump logic and the market won't learn. But, again, this is why inefficiencies in capital markets persist, and most mathematical models based on rational actors fail repeatedly.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 15:44 | 2040277 Apocalicious
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Also, don't rely on the SPIC to bail you out if you invest in Madoff or Stanford. Or the FDIC to bail you out if you have money at Lincoln Savings and Loan. Or the PBGC to bail you out if you worked at Bilidisco. They may, but you can avoid that circumstance altogether by being skeptical and scrutinizing your counterparties - whatever promises someone makes you. There's usually pretty obvious evidence to those who care to look, and plenty of past case studies. History may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme...

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 15:28 | 2001927 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Taker easy.  He only got an 800 on the SAT.  This was probably over his head.  Let me try and explain it to him...

Market go boom boom.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 14:52 | 2001821 Ag1761
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So far, MF is yet more proof these bastards are above the law. Also, showing the CME has no funds to guarantee the losses on commodities.

 

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 16:11 | 2002070 Kali
Kali's picture

AND JPM just got a pass on the new position limits until May 2012. WTF.  How many bricks have to be thrown at one's head before they get it?

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 23:23 | 2003323 prodigious_idea
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I'm pretty sure people who know anything about MF won't forget it in two weeks.  But more to your weak attempt at claiming some deeper knowledge of collossal collapses by citing LTCM: the only thing MF and LTCM have in common is that Corzine was running Goldman during LTCM's short life.  LTCM wasn't about theft and its collapse was significant for more than a month.  Perhaps you could try again at making a real point - and please don't start out using the word "dude".  It really undermines any chance of credibility.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:43 | 2001593 billhilly
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Hey, I thought you were taking the day off !?

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 15:29 | 2001932 JPM Hater001
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Truth never takes a day off.  The truth works 23/7. (coffee break mandated by the union of course.)

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 14:31 | 2001760 tarsubil
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Turd, You along with Peter Schiff and the Cornell Chemist have really helped me prepare and understand. Thanks! Still crossing my fingers and waiting for Jan 2nd.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 15:03 | 2001852 smiler03
smiler03's picture

I think you may mean January the turd.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 16:18 | 2002110 tarsubil
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Cue Twilight zone theme. How did you know that?

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 15:19 | 2001895 JPM Hater001
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And the winner for the understatement of the year: "you likely lost your faith in the system a while ago and marvel that it can continue along for another moment."

Someone get this man a button and a free cookie.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 15:23 | 2001913 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

MF Global was an example of a desperate flight crew throwing everything out of the plane to stay in the air just one more minute.  They would never endanger the system unless the system's continued life depended upon it.

It's coming, this year.  Brace yourselves for the final attack on pm prices before the big reset.  All they have to do is let the stock market sell off, and pms will deflate, then they will use everything in their disposal.  If you have any powder left, scale into pms as the year begins and keep on stacking until you run out of money or you run out of time.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 16:27 | 2002135 RockyRacoon
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Season's Greetings to the Mighty Turd!  Thanks for all your work.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 19:01 | 2002744 billhilly
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and to you Rocky.  I've been reciving a couple of "funnies" from you through my friend Do Chen.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:12 | 2001411 ratso
ratso's picture

Interesting to note that there is not one, yes NOT ONE, positive remark to found about anything in this version of impending doom.  How tiresome it must be to be the prophet of disaster when there is no disaster actually happening or about to happen.

Europe and the USA will muddle through with some difficult fits and starts.

The end is not near - Merry Christmas.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:24 | 2001508 DogSlime
DogSlime's picture

Where do you buy your denial from?  You use the triple-strength stuff, yes?

Since you note the absence of any "positive" data, why not post some data that refutes the article?

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:39 | 2001570 XenoFrog
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That's the hard part about seeing the end coming. When you're right, there's no one around to tell, "I told you so."

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 15:33 | 2001946 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Sorry for the minus one but I have been crafting my "I told you so" letter for about a month now.  It starts like this:

Usually saying I told you so seems petty but since most of you are heading here to wait out the disaster, the pass code is "You told me so."  I will also accept "I am a moron and you were right."  But that one is reserved for my sister.

What do you think?

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:49 | 2001618 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I like the part about the "best explanation for the higher oil prices is the decreased supply of cheap oil"; I laughed out loud at that one. That's the best explanation if you know absolutely nothing about the oil market, and b.) you desperately need to bolster up your gloom and doom blog.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 14:49 | 2001648 Cyrano de Bivouac
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SAT 800=400 math,400 verbal.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:48 | 2001619 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

ratso looks like you're just fatso in your own head.. typical troll.

Shut up or put up with your "positive remark".

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:56 | 2001645 ratso
ratso's picture

Merry Christmas to you too.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 14:20 | 2001724 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

a shame to my avatars name ....

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 13:56 | 2001642 gatorengineer
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Barry Soweto is that you??????

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