Guest Post: You Can't Fool Mother Nature For Long: Financial Markets
Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
You Can't Fool Mother Nature For Long: Financial Markets
Constant State and Central Bank intervention and manipulation is not the foundation of a free, transparent market--it is perception management in service of Elite control and looting.
You can fool Mother Nature for awhile, but not over the long-term. That's the theme of the week. Every day I will take a look at a segment of American life that is currently based on the supposition that we can dodge reality essentially forever.
Correspondent Chad D. recently summarized the profound lack of authenticity in the American experience:
Have you noticed that Americans often don't experience REAL things: REAL food, Real water, REAL relationships, REAL money, REAL freedom, REAL peace of mind, REAL living, REAL leaders, etc. I know you've gotten flack for your extensive use of "simulacrum," but it's so true. Most Americans have no idea what REAL is.
Thank you, Chad. Let's ask just how real our financial markets really are. We can start our inquiry with this thought experiment: where would the stock, bond and commodity markets be if all Central State and Central Bank intervention and manipulation were prohibited?
Where would the stock market be if the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) didn't manipulate the stock market via massive purchases of ES S&P 500 futures contracts? These massive purchases are always executed in sparsely traded pre-markets, maximizing the ramp-up effect, which then triggers momentum chasing buys from high-frequency trading machines.
Voila, ramp-and-camp Mondays, which studies have found account for the majority of the market's gains last year.
Remove ramp-and-camp Mondays triggered by massive PPT futures purchases, and where would the unmanipulated market be?
What if unemployment statistics were unmanipulated, i.e. the number of people in the workforce didn't magically decline by millions every year? What if the bogus "Birth-Death Model" was banned as mere fantasy job creation? Where would the unmanipulated market be then?
Where would bond market yields be if the Federal Reserve were unable to print money to buy hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgage and Treasury bonds?
We can also shed light on the difference between a real free market and a simulacrum of a "free market" by asking: does anyone seriously believe the stock market would be higher if all market intervention and manipulation by the Central State and Central Bank (and their proxies) ceased?
We can extend this by asking: what if public companies were banned from issuing "beat by a penny" pro forma earnings and other accounting tricks?
What if the "shadow banking system" was outlawed, and all assets and liabilities were transparent? Does anyone seriously believe the fragile financial system that depends on shadow banking for its dodges and profits would survive transparency and marked-to-market accounting?
Americans have no real experience of free, transparent financial markets or of rigorously transparent accounting by their Central State, the Federal Reserve, public corporations or the financial sector. They have been presented facsimiles of accurate statistics and accounting, and simulacra of transparent markets.
Average Americans are responding to this systemic destruction of truth and fact by exiting the stock market--and that is just the start. As I described in When Belief in the System Fades (March 12, 2008), the Elites benefitting from the Status Quo depend on the active participation and complicity of millions of citizens.
When those participants' faith in the Status Quo's fairness and transparency declines below a critical threshold, then they withdraw or limit their participation, and the system enters a self-reinforcing death spiral.
To go back to the key question: does anyone seriously believe the stock market would be this high if the Central State and Bank and their proxies weren't constantly intervening in the market and manipulating data?
Intervening in supposedly "free markets" for the purposes of perception management and political spin ("everything's great because the market is up!") is ultimately an attempt to fool Mother Nature. The Powers That Be have succeeded in manipulating markets since 2007, but reality (Mother Nature) eventually shreds the phony facade of perception management.
As the European attempts to fool Mother Nature (i.e. unmanipulated markets that are free to discover price and price risk) disintegrate, does anyone seriously think the PPT can prop up the U.S. stock market with its usual pre-market manipulations?
When Mother Nature reasserts reality, the frauds, scams and facades will shred like tissue in a hurricane. Maybe that process of reverting to reality is finally about to begin.
(19 votes)
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Eh er, maybe, banks have been doing this in earnest for several thousand years now. Just the same, I will hedge accordingly.
"When Mother Nature reasserts reality, the frauds, scams and facades will shred like tissue in a hurricane. Maybe that process of reverting to reality is finally about to begin."
Only if someone with power and a leadership role stands up and fraud at ALL levels is actually prosecuted. Otherwise, the FEMA camps and re-education camps (the modern "prison") await. Any bets on that happening?
What the fuck happened to the Chase credit card robosigning article that was posted right before this one? I was in the middle of posting a new comment and the article just fucking disappeared!
I am Chumbawamba!
Rehypothecated to Market Ticker? I heard that site is getting desperate for views. Crazy Karl might shut it down because he is so upset with everyone for not believing in pixie dust and unicorn piss :(
Heh....
;)
Oh, poor douche banger. He doesn't understand the real world, yet. Still thinks the political system has a chance and is relevant.
I took my mother-outlaw out to dinner (because I had too, wife's orders), and she couldn't understand the markets and why I trade. She never listened to me when I called the GM, Wamu, Lehman busts, years ago. "That doom and gloomer ruffcut", she thought. I said; "I had my security licenses in the late 80's and it was bullshit then and it is just bigger bullshit now."
How much bullshit can the system handle? We shall see, my pretty, we shall see.
Are you petting your cat or something?
No, my new puppy. Other great dog died in November of lymphoma. She was only three.
"If dogs don't go to heaven, then when I die, I want to go where they go." Will Rogers
Another quote and one of his many that could have been written yesterday
"If a bank fails in China, they behead the men at the top of it that was responsible...If we beheaded all of ours that were responsible for bank failures, we wouldn't have enough people left to bury the heads." Feb. 6, 1927
you mean this? http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=200671
Same here. Based upon family information, I was attempting to reply that the banks are sure as hell robosigning court suits for credit card debt. Sorry to hear that you got hammered, Chumba. I hear from an attorney who handles these cases that they've been taking debts below $1,000 to court in droves, btw.
I'll post this a couple of places
Maybe the banksters threatened Tyler with a lawsuit. That's OK, here a three links to similar information, some is recent and some is dated. Save the information before my comment is censored as well.
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-01-13/wall_street/30622579_1_chase-robosigning-scandal-collections
http://blog.creditcardsbay.com/robo-signing-credit-card-defaults.html
http://www.fdcpa.me/jp-morgan-chase-credit-card-robo-sign/
Tony Blair and Jamie Dimon recenty vacationed in Nigeria.........I wonder if there is any correlation to what is now happening to that country?....
"In the space of two days he visited Nigeria’s president Goodluck Jonathan in his capacity as paid adviser to JP Morgan, the US investment bank, and followed that with a faith foundation visit to nearby Sierra Leone. On the Nigerian leg of the journey, Mr Blair was accompanied by the bank’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon, who announced plans for a new office in Lagos."
http://nakedempire2.blogspot.com/2012/01/tony-blair-nigeria-and-jpm-inside.html
Blair's employed by the Carlyle Group. Interesting; the plot thickens.
i had a chase card with a five digit balance. i had been making less than the required payment to chase (and was paying my employees instead, inter alia). late last year i got a collection call and they offered a 36 month payoff at 0 % interest. i declined because it would have shown on my credit report as a workout and instead i paid the debt off with an in service 401K distribution as soon as the new tax year began.
my plausible theory:
someone with a calculator has figured out that aggressively pursuing these debts drives enough debtors into bankruptcy that the additional recovery from said pursuit is outweighed by additional attorney fees in bankruptcy and loss of partial payments that they would have otherwise received by letting things ride.
i've learned my lesson (at 25% per annum). never again. never again.
Quite plausible. Here's another possible factor, too:
Many customers are literally too broke to pay, and their credit is already trashed, so when collectors call them, they say, "Forget it, I ain't payin, see ya in court."
Many collections amounts are far too small to be worth pursuing in court, so they've wasted $X dollars trying to collect already and don't want to throw good money after bad. It wouldn't surprise me if a lot of the commission-style collections agencies are going out of business themselves.
I suspect by now Jamie knows what colour underwear the Tyler's are wearing on a daily basis and his lawyers have them on speed dial.
Maybe the banksters threatened Tyler with a lawsuit. That's OK, here a three links to similar information, some is recent and some is dated. Save the information before my comment is censored as well.
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-01-13/wall_street/30622579_1_chase-robosigning-scandal-collections
http://blog.creditcardsbay.com/robo-signing-credit-card-defaults.html
http://www.fdcpa.me/jp-morgan-chase-credit-card-robo-sign/
chumbawamba asked:
Good question.
I still have the article open in another browser tab from this morning, so I was able to retrieve the URL for the original article, which is, at least for the moment, still available.
http://financeaddict.com/2012/01/have-banks-been-robosigning-credit-card...
I was wondering that one too. Never seen an entire article disappear.
pods
Ya I wanted to know what an administrative discharge was - never heard of it and it was a comment to the article. Can anyone help?
America is the Truman Show. And Hollywood/MSM are tryign to make sure it's the Truman show everywhere.
And because they have the biggest illusion to lose, Americans are most fearful of REALITY aka Truth.
Truth is a rare commodity now-adays. Easier by far to be an ostrich.
So of course the markets are a lie too. Just Google Ming the Mechanic and DTCC. It's been a lie from the start. So sorry.
Enough Said.
ori
/truth/
The light! It burns my eyes!! My eyes!!!
The biggest cult in history by far. Freedom is everywhere in America but no one bothers to look for it. Oversimplicity of journalistic scribbling, pointlessly complex scientific half truths and prepackaged entertainment are all in abundance. Americans have everything and anything. Except themselves.
Everyone should take a look at this brilliant piece of work.
http://www.recombinantrecords.net/docs/2009-05-Amusing-Ourselves-to-Death.html
ori
I hear that will make you go blind.
:-) But seriously, check it out. Cartoon. Really well done.
ori
ORI
I feel we are being assaulted on both fronts.... fear and amusement.
Isn't that right JAson? our candle is being burnt by a blowtorch at both ends FOR us.
ori
ORI
Yes, Escaping this reality, this Matrix, isn't so easy as taking the "red pill." I've done my best to disconnect from this system, but you cannot escape it completely. It has permeated everything, even our not yet concieved children. We are born into it as were our parents, and their parents before them and so on and so on. I feel all we can look forward to now is it's self destruction and maybe, just maybe we will survive.
You win my personal link of the day contest, ORI.
What's funny is that both could be true at once...
Check out the shitstorm of reaction in reader comments:
http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/12/should-the-times-be-a-t...
Thanks bob,
The following reader comment sums it up,
Flag
The Times long ago lost its trust by showing its bias towards Israel in the geo political sphere. Few expect the Times to sort out truth from fiction but that provides opportunities for the blogging phenomenon. It gives us the joy of speaking truth to power, even if, few Americans are interested any longer. I'm sure historians will mark this era by the failure of media and the demise of print media in general. Though it is astonishing that the media has fallen so far, so fast. I don't know any intelligent individuals any more who credit the media institutions of yesterday with what we used to call journalism. The Powers That Be, are no longer.
A few see the truth of it already, and have taken the proper actions....most will never see it or accept the truth until its far too late for them.
And we buy silver, for silver is monie....
And it's fucking cheap too!
Still, you have to believe that truth will have the last word. And if that is true, then it makes sense to invest in something honest. Honest money, say.
"Truth is a pathless land"...Jiddu Krishnamurti
Here's the difference. When you go to a casino you absolutely know when you've lost or won a gamble by looking at the numbers. Today in the markets you sorta know if you've won or lost depending on what they tell you the numbers are. Then they suddenly change the numbers after you thought you won while you stand there at the payout-window with your pants down around your ankles. It's a wonderful gambling experience.
It's like the Casino from Hell and Satan is the dealer.
Casinos are paying winning beats in blow jobs and head these days?
No that's just to get your chicken mcnuggets...
In order to achieve the "power and leadership role" you mention, you have to sell out to the very people you would have to prosecute. You become a part of the "organization" at that point. You are a made man.
And god only knows what would happen to you if you cross them.
He forgot another... REAL tits.
Clearly...CHS is a big fan of Baudrillard
if this is who I think this is, please post a link to your post on Baudrilliard. Brilliant stuff, I can't find it. Deep in my bookmarks.
ori
ORI...Best advice to you sir is to read Simulacra and Simulation...
here's the link
you'll have to roll up your sleeves to read
http://books.google.ca/books?hl=en&lr=&id=9Z9biHaoLZIC&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=...
also reading Fatal Strategies and Hyperreal America can enlarge ones proboscis for sniffing out great american cultural (value-engineered) morsels
must have a multi dimensional mind to attempt
yup, it be me alright. I put it up on Scribd, but the font really sucks and I haven't figured out how to fix it. Here's the original. http://vestigialvision.com/2010/01/11/precession-of-the-simulacra/
funny day, I'm posting on Eddie Shack and Jean Baudrillard...only on ZH you say!>?!?!
Hey ORI, still looking to be booking my class 3 Kashmirian houseboat, but sounds like the weather's a tad cold there now...more evidence of global warming?
Aha! Aha.
Everyone should read this. It is superbly written, incisive and divisive ;-), right Joyful?
And aha again. Yes, all well here and Kashmir is a no no. Perhaps Kerala, check that out.
ori
au contraire mon frere: Baudrillard would never have accepted the association of a "Mother Nature" with a putative "reality."
Indeed, the full flowering of his neo-Manichean refutation of such a viewpoint comes out in the 1984 Australian interview quoted from the same source where he says:
Unfortunately, as always, Americans such as CHS confuse language with meaning, and therefore fall prey to subsuming words they do not fully understand into banners upon which to display their misplaced concreteness. CHS is a big fan of CHS. Baudrillard never travelled well across the pond, in large part because AMERICA was a masonic experiment never meant to be "real" in the sense he implies.
America's best sages were home-grown: “If my mind can conceive it, and my heart can believe it - then I can achieve it.” Muhammad Ali
*
Jean Baudrillard. The Evil Demon of Images. Translated by Paul Patton, Paul Foss and Philippe Tanguy. Sydney: Power Publications, 1987:20-21
Since you guys brought it up (haha)!!! Critique of the Political Economy of the Sign was the kicker for me...Along with Symbolic Exchange and Death...Read along with JG Ballard's Crash...What an amazing book!!!
"The trouble with quotes on the internet is that it's difficult to determine whether or not they are genuine."
-Abraham Lincoln
What else do you expect from an AL GORE invention?
Actually, you CAN fool mother nature for a VERY long time (were not talking about eternity here) because the very thing (fooling the sheeple) has been going on for the last hundred years.
So in closing, yes you can fool people because people are stupid.
You are right, in human terms the manipulation can go on for generations, no point waiting around smirking like Mother Nature gives a shit, Nature is Neutral it does not give a shit about you, you have to take care of your self(get out of Doge) now
Mother nature in her own way is more moral than any human being. She rewards the hard workers and punishes the lazy. She know that equality only means bringing everybody down to level of the slowest (poorest).
I know, right? Look at the fucking miserable life bonobos live. And they're gay, to boot.
No I don't believe they would be...but that is the case...And their all in!!! So be prepared to watch in wonderment as a no volume rally continues for years to come.....joke after joke....
Just as soon as the last moron with 2 nickels to rub together is convinced 'it just goes on for years' is when the next big Shitnami rolls over us. 'Year after year uninterupted'....yea sure. They dont secure their ongoing control by being 'all-in' on collecting IOU's a penny higher, they do it by pumping and dumping, wash, rinse, repeat.
We're due for the next big plunge and chaos and reshuffling event...in fact past due. So buckle up, buttercups, it may well not happen tomorrow, but certainly wont be more than a few months off till chaos returns...ta ta!
What if this is chaos?
Well it IS chaos...people just dont recognize it as such just yet...but they soon will!
What if this is the new normal? Everyone is still using the old rule books and calling it manipulation and intervention.
Oh yea, well this IS 'the new normal', until 1 morning this week or next week or in a few months everyone is suddenly MF Globalled out of their 401K's, pensions, and trading and bank accounts.... so enjoy, party on, great Conga line goin on at CNBC join in the fun!
Dude, I'm not part of it. I forgo my company match just to avoid speculating and I believe more and more people are doing the same. It's MY adjustment to the new normal. Less exposure, more laughter.
It's chaos when I trade you 5 -9mm rounds for a sack of potatos
Well - I think we're already on the entropy side of the equation. Heat dissipation can be a slow process, and I'm inclined to think that's the way we're going to go. "Not with a bang," and whatnot.
I don't know anything, though - although at this point, I'm well acquainted with entropy.
The problem with the whole entropy analogy is the reference point. A falling leaf rejuvenates growth. Low to high for the leaf but high to low for the blade of grass. We are moving from a level of order to disorder (low to high) in the market but all the manipulation is keeping entorpy low from the bankers perspective. They are the new growth, we are the shit falling from the trees.
You're absolutely right, and I reckon that a minority even in the U.S. will continue to see ever higher living standards for a long, long time (unlike the Occupy rhetoric, I think the number is closer to 20% than to 1%).
My initial reference point was global.
They are the new growth, we are the shit falling from the trees.
Simple solution... Don't hit ground...
Or Armageddon......and this time we all show up.
nothing would surprise me...the markets are broken
For the most part, Our children are no longer being raised by parents...
They are being raised by the illuminati controlled mass media.
Its all a facade:
REALITY IS THEIR ILLUSION
THEIR FICTION IS THE REALITY
Watch these two videos side by side. Same bullshit reality. What an absolute disaster.
Kim Jong Il's Funeral - North Koreans Cry Hysterically
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puMFLY6A-qs
Meryl Streep - Golden Globes 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJReWeEGoH8
Emm, it's not just children. In fact I would say that adults are even more brainwashed than the kids considering they have been subjected to the "programming" a lot longer.
And where did you pull "Illuminati" out of? Who are they? considering our media consists of a handful of corporations, are the illumaniti the board members? Do you think they worship satan? Please clairify.
True Derp - its not just children... adults too.
Who are 'they'? - Very good question... yes, in a sense - the board member's at the top of the pyramid.
The Royal Houses of Europe - of Frankish/Bavarian descent from the Merovingian Kings...The Royal *occult* Family... 'Blue bloods' - that have ties to very important royal lineages...
Yes - they worship Lucifer - they are the 'illuminated ones' - they believe they are gods...and *think* it is their divine right to rule over us 'commoner's.' Sun-worshippers as they think the Sun is at the centre of the Universe... Osiris...
Satanism is the oldest religion on earth - it has no start date. It was here before anything else...especially the Big 3.
They practice old pagan traditions which include human blood sacrifice - and they will do anything and hurt anyone to manifest they're agenda... They have no love or empathy for any person.
Every single date - holiday - tradition we do is related to pagan traditions convienently hidden in the holidays they have given us... but this has been going on for ages... just with different names...
Again - they - the illuminated ones - follow: Astrology, numerology and sacred geometry.
Dont forget - they even created the calendar to - enslave us... Lucifer - the master of time and space...
Wheel of the Year
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheel_of_the_year
1. Winter Solstice - 13 weeks - Minor sabbath
a. December 21 - Yule
b. December 21-22 - Winter Solstice/Yule. One of the Illuminati's Human Sacrifice Nights
c. February 1 and 2 - Candlemas and Imbolg, a.k.a. Groundhog's Day. One of the Illuminati's Human Sacrifice Nights
d. February 14 - Valentine's Day
2. Spring Equinox - 13 weeks - Minor sabbath but does require human sacrifice
a. March 21-22 - Goddess Ostara - Note: Easter is the first Sunday after the first new moon after Ostara. March 21 is one of the Illuminati's Human Sacrifice Nights
b. April 1 - All Fool's Day, precisely 13 weeks since New Year's Day!
c. April 19 - May 1 - Blood Sacrifice To The Beast. Fire sacrifice is required on April 19.
d. April 30 - May 1 - Beltaine Festival, also called Walpurgis Night. This is the highest day on the Druidic Witch's Calendar. May 1 is the Illuminati's second most sacred holiday. Human sacrifice is required
3. Summer Solstice - 13 weeks - When the sun reaches its northernmost point in its journey across the sky
a. June 21 - 22 - Summer Solstice
b. June 21 - Litha is one of the Illuminati's Human Sacrifice Nights
c. July 4, America's Independence Day, is 13 days after Day of Litha and 66 days from April 30
d. July 19 - 13 days before Lughnasa
e. July 31 - August 1 - Lughnasa, Great Sabbat Festival. August - One of the Illuminati's Human Sacrifice Nights
4. Autumnal Equinox - 13 weeks - Minor Sabbath but does require human sacrifice
a. September 21 - Mabon - one of the Illuminati's Human Sacrifice Nights
b. September 21 -22 - Autumnal Equinox
c. October 31 - Samhain, also known as Halloween, or All Hallows Eve. This date is the Illuminati's highest day of human sacrifice
I think there are far more people that actually desire this sort of facade driven market than don't right now. Which is really scary.
All is well...for as long as complete and total manipulation of every aspect of 'the markets' goes on, funded by unlimited 'off the books' ZIRP free money infusions daily.
This can go on indefinitely...Or at minimum...Longer than any of us realize for sure! I sort of disagree with CHS...Respectfully!
Or, far shorter time than the herd wishes to believe. Complacency and normalcy bias is what they love most...get all the 401K bathrobe brigades convinced no matter what, theyre OK, markets pretty good daily...yea can pay no mind to the bad news, see now that no longer matters...YEA SURE. In reality, they'll all be 'MF Globalled' one day pretty soon. There is NO point is a 'slow melt-up marketplace' at all, no matter how much people want to believe thats our new 'normalcy bias'.
Rudiger Dornbusch: 'Crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.'
Hedge manipulation.
"It's not nice to fool Mother Nature."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLrTPrp-fW8
Good shit....good thoughts...
it's a put on... a put on....
An eminence front....
Come and join the party!
...Dress to kill...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-u0GJdNu1Ds
The markets on the long run will always impose themselves. Why? because They either have it or They don't (revenues, resources, assets, etc).
Because the ONLY point to the pump, is the ensuing dump! No matter how much cognitive dissonance and normalcy bias is out there in the sheeple herd, believe me, they will dump hard one morning.
The Fed imposes; man disposes.
I continue to be amazed at how long they are able to keep this charade going. Just when you think the death blow to the market has been delt, they are able to ramp it up even further. I keep waiting for the day when I wake up and the market is down 1000 pts. on the futures, but for now they seem to have it under control. Eventually it will all fall as more and more people become skeptical,but until then they are going to impoverish a lot of people just to keep the ponzi afloat.
And then when the 'dump phase' DOES kick in one morning, everyone will say 'Wow, that was QUICK! Didnt see that one comin'!
Time after time after time....
Maybe the market can go up indefinately - it's a fiction, so why not? It's like unemployment - it can stay at 8%, or whatever they say it is, even as fewer people have jobs. It's a fiction. At the point that people realise the fiction, maybe it will be too late to dump anything. Like I said a few posts up - may this (here and now) is chaos.
Markets are in a range, and almost at the top of it right now.
I remember back 6 months ago to how all our problems were fixed at DOW 12,700 and upon passing the new 'debt ceiling bill', we'd be off to the races 14,000 was already fully baked in!
Unfortunately, the pulled the rug and markets went down 1,200 points in a week. Anyone remember that? It was only a few months ago.
Of course it's chaos: It ain't economic fundamentals fer sure.