This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Guest Post: Your Window to Buy Gold Below $1,700 Is Closing

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Jeff Clark of Casey Research,

Even the hardiest investors have been lamenting that gold prices have been stuck in a rut for a long time. Others with less experience have watched the market waiting for something to happen….

And as always, many bailed out of the market entirely, licking their wounds.

But some, including me, have been stocking up.

We're convinced prices won't stay down forever.

In fact, I think there's a good reason to buy gold if you can, and as soon as possible.

Here's why:

Based on the data I chart below, I believe the window of time to buy gold for less than $1,700 an ounce is very limited.

I examined gold's three largest corrections since the bull market began in 2001, including how long it took to recover from those corrections and establish new highs.

The conclusion that emerged is that the current lull in gold prices will almost certainly end soon, if it hasn't already.

Gold set a record on September 5, 2011 at $1,895 an ounce (London PM Fix) and to date has fallen as low as $1,531 (December 29, 2011), a decline of 19.2%. Gold has tested that level several times since but never broke below it.

In order to determine how long it might take to breach $1,895 again, I measured the time it took to mount new highs after big corrections in the past.

The following chart details the three largest corrections since 2001, and calculates how many weeks it took the gold price to a) breach the old high, and b) stay above that level.

(Click on image to enlarge)

In 2006, after a total decline of 22.6%, it took a year and four months for gold to surpass its old high. After the 2008 meltdown, it was a year and six months later before the metal hit a new record. The 16.2% drop in 2003 lasted seven months, and another two months before the price stayed above it.

You can see that our correction has lasted just shy of a year. If we matched the recovery time of 2006, gold would hit a new high on Christmas Eve (Merry Christmas!).

But here's the thing: that's how long it would take gold to breach $1,900 again – it will take a couple months or more for the price to work up to that level, meaning the remaining time to buy gold under $1,700 will likely be measured in days or weeks, not months.

This is bolstered by the fact that the price moved up strongly last week.

And just as importantly, we're on the doorstep of the seasonally strongest month of the year.

This is an educated guess, of course, but what the data make clear is that all corrections eventually end – even the bloodbath in 2008.

The current lag will come to an end too, and we're certainly closer to the end of this corrective period than the beginning.

This has direct investment implications.

First, once gold breaches its old high, you'll probably never be able to buy it at current prices again in this cycle.

That's a rather obvious statement, but let it sink in.

The next few days or weeks will likely be the very last time you can buy gold below $1,700. You'll have to pay a higher price from then on.

And think about this: it's entirely possible that by this time next year you will never again be able to buy gold for less than $2,000 an ounce – unless maybe it's in "new dollars" or some other currency that circulates with fewer zeros on the notes.

Second, the data can help you ignore the noise about gold's bull market being over and other nonsense spewed from mainstream media types.

If gold doesn't hit $1,900 until December, you'll know this is simply normal price behavior and that they're overlooking basic patterns in the data. And when the price nears that level again and they're caught off guard by it, you'll already be positioned.

There are three intelligent ways to buy gold, understanding them means you are there in good time for the turn around.

Regardless of the date, we're confident that a new high in the gold price will come.

The highs will come because many major currencies are unsound, overburdened with debt, and being actively diluted by governments.

Indeed, the ultimate high could be frighteningly higher than current levels.

As such, we suggest taking advantage of prices that won't be available indefinitely. I think we all need some of nature's cure for man's monetary ills.

The window of time to buy gold at current prices is closing. I suggest taking advantage of the sale while you still can.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 08/31/2012 - 18:49 | Link to Comment spinone
spinone's picture

This is not so much a description of the increasing value of gold, but the decreasing standard of living in the US.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 18:53 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

And closing quickly QE3 is on the way.

http://jamesturkblog.blogspot.ca/

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 22:28 | Link to Comment Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

Gold closed at $1666.60 on Tuesday.

That looked like a signal to me, but I don't know WHAT.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 18:58 | Link to Comment tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

I guess I wasn't so dumb after all as I have been hauling in all the gold I could afford through that sub-1700$ window.

 

Notice the timing of spinone's comment - 1849 - goldrush!

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:26 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I too have been buying decent amounts on gold over the past year.  As money has come in, so have I been using part of that to buy gold.  I see no reason to stop, but my pile has been getting bigger over the decades it took to get it there.

The author of the article might be right.  Although gold will certainly go up and down (the latter right after I buy it), it may very well be our last chance, in the coming days, to get gold as cheaply as you can get it now.

If you are one of the 98% or 99% (of Americans) who do NOT own gold, then:

Buy now and beat the rush!

EDIT:

Two guys in July thought a gold breakout was imminent, I took note:

http://tinyurl.com/c8slu2c

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

Tough to even buy silver when you don't have a job, let alone gold.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 02:15 | Link to Comment Newager23
Newager23's picture

That is solid analysis, and could be right. I think the odds of this rally reaching a new high are very good. In fact, I will be surprised if we don't see a new high within 12 months. However, the bet that we will soon not see $1700 breached has one hole. What happens if the stock market crashes? Do we really think gold will hold? I doubt it, although I think the dip will be short-lived, and a buying opportunity.

The bottom line is that this gold rally is very likely not over -- nowhere close. The key of course is going to be global economic growth. I'm betting that higher energy prices are our future and not economic growth. Thus, gold is the perfect play for that scenario. Soon the bond market is going to figure this out and gold will rocket upwards. Currently gold is perceived as a risk-on trade, but that is going flip. And when it does flip to a risk-off trade and decouples from stocks, look out. At that time the 3% of global investment funds that are in precious metals, will become 4% and then 5%.

We are not even close to having a bubble in gold, but its coming. Right now if you knock on your neighbors door and ask them if they have any gold investments, the odd are at least 95% will say no. And of the 5% who own gold investments, only about 2% have a substantial amount. In other words, no one owns gold or silver yet. But that is about to change.

No one owns gold or silver yet, because of two reasons: 1) They don't think they need it. 2) They think it is a risky investment. That is about to change. 

www.goldsilverdata.com - if you like mining stocks.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

It IS a risky investment if you don't hide it VERY well. Some people brag about their investment portfolio. Doing it when your whole portfolio can be 'undermined' so to speak, with a shovel, is a big risk.

And if you live in a place with rising crime, or high levels of drug use, you'd better be quiet and have good, multi-layered security.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 15:55 | Link to Comment praxis
praxis's picture

You are soooo correct...they will put a brick through your window and take everything. This happened to a guy I know about three weeks ago. Dopers broke into his apartment while he was at work and stole $3500.00 worth of silver coins, bars he'd been buying during this correction. Since the silver was "hot" and no pawn shops would take it the dumb asses started using it as regular currency...Coin shop owner said workers were pulling his silver out of cash registers all week after the theft trying to cash it in...good guy that coin shop owner...he woulnd't buy any silver that week cos he new his friend and customer has been robbed by those cocksuckers...better listen to what B'shroom says people...motherfuckers will take everything...

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 04:53 | Link to Comment HyperinflatmyNutts
HyperinflatmyNutts's picture

Say Hello to my Little Friend........

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

It IS a risky investment if you don't hide it VERY well. Some people brag about their investment portfolio. Doing it when your whole portfolio can be 'undermined' so to speak, with a shovel, is a big risk.

And if you live in a place with rising crime, or high levels of drug use, you'd better be quiet and have good, multi-layered security.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 18:56 | Link to Comment HyperinflatmyNutts
HyperinflatmyNutts's picture

Wake me at $3500 gold $125 silver untill then this is all noise!!!!!

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Note to self:  don't klink the coins too loud or I might wake hibernutts.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 21:17 | Link to Comment killallthefiat
killallthefiat's picture

November '04 was not a severe drop, but took a painfully long time to recover.  In hindsight, just noise.  My targets are way higher though than 3500/125.  Ben "Gono" Bernanke has much more time as Fed chair.

Incidentally, the mainstream financial news (ends with BC) has a show on this afternoon about the merits of the gold standard with L Lehrman.  This is in the cards and has been all along.  We are getting acclimated and then it (the gold standard) will be forced on us.  When they acclimate us though, it does not seem like force.

Strong hands will get rich

 

 

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 22:08 | Link to Comment JohnG
JohnG's picture

Damn I hate trolls.  It's almost not worth reading nights and weekend anymore.  Fucking troll.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 18:57 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

"But some, including me, have been stocking up. We're convinced prices won't stay down forever. In fact, I think there's a good reason to buy gold if you can".

 

So you can make money?

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:11 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

well, if golds ascent is to be viewed as the diametric response to a debased dollar, then no you cant make money on gold....gold at 10,000 would mean there is no purchasing power in the dollar.....people think....wow!! im going to be rich and make money on the increase in the price of gold!! gold to 10,000!!!  well, not if an egg costs 10 bucks.......................so if it were to come to that, a holder of gold would allow one to preserve purchasing power.....not to "make money".................

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

You'd gain purchasing power on things deflating, and there are many and will be many more...

You're assuming an egg increases at the same rate as say, a home...

Also, there could be a fear premium at some point.

But in general, yes, it is to preserve purchasing power.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:42 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Exactly.

My grand father made his fortune leveraging  his gold for copper

at rock bottom price in the depression in the UK.

Copper then quintupled in the run up to WW11.

At some point silver will be the new copper.

There will still be winners even in the worst of economic times.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 22:06 | Link to Comment Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Where the hell have I been? We're at World War 11 already?????

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 22:26 | Link to Comment GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

WW eleven happened years ago when Gold topped 1200 US bitty byties, just like the bears said it would...we're on WW XXX now. 

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 07:49 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Sorry ,my I key was banziied(coffee eruption).Fixed now.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 14:10 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Ballsy grandfather.

Even the spectre of total war in his time did not shake his resolve to stack.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 15:59 | Link to Comment praxis
praxis's picture

If Bennie prints enough copper will be the new silver...

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:46 | Link to Comment Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

Great call on the for profit ed shorts Devo

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Hey, no problem. I was wondering if anyone else did it...

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment knowshitsurelock
knowshitsurelock's picture

To preserve "purchasing power" means, when the blood is running in the streets and the fear is high, you can name your price and get whatever you need.

In Weimar Republic, you could buy one acre of land for an ounce of gold, but trying to find a loaf of bread to buy was almost impossible.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:48 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

The worst part of this is, in my opinion, that when this happens, we are going to get the confiscation/turn in orders, or else.

Then what will it be worth?.The .goobers are notorious , and do not be surprised if they pay you $42.00 an oz, for something you paid $1,700.00 oz for.

That will not be preservation of wealth. That will be THEFT.

Gold will be included in the new money that is / must come,it HAS to be.

We serfs will get FRANKED one way or the other.

Right now a dollar is worth approx 1/1692.60th of an ounce of gold. Anyone here think TPTB are going to pay us the market rate when it hits 1/10,000th of an ounce?.

Not me..........................totally in a quandry here. Close to time to sell, and go all Silver?.

You tell me..............................

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:22 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

But if you ascribe to the theory that all other asset classes are artificially inflated (think housing) while gold is artificially deflated (think preservation of fiat), you can see a scenario in which gold will be more valuable and buy more stuff as the market returns to mean.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment Nevermore Peabody
Nevermore Peabody's picture

That's true if you're only looking at one side of the equation. Gold's up 500% in the past 11 years, but I don't think that's soley due to money supply inflation. Over the past four years, investment demand has also gone up a lot as people, central banks, and even countries have started hedging with gold. That's why you see the price of gold going up x5, but purchacing power of the dollar only being cut in half. Gold does have money-making potential (and silver, too, I hope).

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

I like gold and silver as much as the next guy, but this article blows.

"This is an educated guess, of course, but what the data make clear is that all corrections eventually end – even the bloodbath in 2008."

"First, once gold breaches its old high, you'll probably never be able to buy it at current prices again in this cycle."

"Regardless of the date, we're confident that a new high in the gold price will come."

"The window of time to buy gold at current prices is closing."

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:33 | Link to Comment GlomarHabu
GlomarHabu's picture

 

 

Very few things endure for all time .... corrections end, you and I will end ..but in mans history gold has endured as a store of wealth.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:44 | Link to Comment HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

In what way does it blow ?   Other than telling you nothing you didnt know before, that is.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:30 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

@ kito

With so much going off the tracks re our financial system, gold is likely to go up MORE than the US$ will go down (inflation).  Hey, one man's opinion.

Also, if there are going to be a lot of people who LOSE in an inflation, there will almost certainly be winners.  Who will those winners be (other than the banksters)?

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:30 | Link to Comment GlomarHabu
GlomarHabu's picture

 

 

People who bought and held gold, say at around $800USD/oz.   Those will be the winners.

H.L Menchen liked to say a cynic was "someone who knew the price of everything and the valuse of nothing"

If history teaches us any economic lessons it's that gold in your own vault is a very good thing,very good.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 23:36 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Also, if there are going to be a lot of people who LOSE in an inflation, there will almost certainly be winners.  Who will those winners be (other than the banksters)?

Generally those who own commodities, including gold & silver obviously. 

But they're really not winners since they won't gain any real wealth.   They merely retain their purchasing power while eveyone holding currency-based paper "assets" lose purchasing power, just like they've lost 50% of their purchasing power in the past 4 years.

The only real winners in inflation (and hyperinflation) are those receiving huge bailouts.  They receive way more purchasing power than they lose through currency debasement.

For example the federal government is a huge winner and will continue being a huge winner as long as they continue receiving a $1.5 trillion bailout each year at 1% interest (or less).

Yes, that's what it is, an ongoing bailout.  Selling debt paper (treasury bonds) to the Fed for cash, just like TBTF banks sell various kinds of financial paper to the Fed for cash.  

Obviously those banks are big winners too.   Billions of dollars they receive for near-worthless financial paper brings them way more purchasing power than they lose through currency debasement.

It will be pretty difficult to do any sort of forex play to be a winner, since other currencies are debasing more or less the same rate USD is debasing, maintaining their relative values against other currencies.

That's the point.   Everbody is printing and debasing more or less at the same rate, keeping various currencies more or less stable against each other.   Fed does QE3 further debasing the dollar, ECB does something similar further debasing the Euro, Japan does something similar further debasing the Yen, etc.  It's not really a "race to the bottom".   Everybody wants to debase more or less at the same rate.

You might be able to be a winner with commodity options where you can employ leverage.  Commodities are certainly going to rise in price as the currency further debases.  You don't want futures.  You don't wana take delivery.  You wana profit from the rise in price on a leveraged play hopefully.

With this widespread drought, agricultural commodity options should do really well in the coming months.  Harvest will be disappointing this fall, creating shortages, driving prices up over and above the effect of currency debasement.

To be a true winner you can't merely retain your purchasing power as you would holding physical gold or silver or some other commodity where no leverage is working for you.  

To be a true winner you have to increase your purchasing power substaintially, and that usually requires leverage of some sort.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 02:42 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Brilliant summary, and I love the connect between the defecit, fed, and government being bailed out. Excellent way to tie it all together.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Leveraging and not taking delivery is a good way to get MF Globaled...

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 16:51 | Link to Comment beachdude
beachdude's picture

"To be a true winner you have to increase your purchasing power substaintially, and that usually requires leverage of some sort."

DAG, and maybe DBA and GLD LEAPS.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:54 | Link to Comment msmith9962
msmith9962's picture

So does gold preserve wealth or increase it.  What about the stories of people buying a city block in Weimar with an ounce of gold or whatever.  Say 90% of the population has $100,000 in cash and only 3% of the people have $100,000 in gold.  When the cash becomes worthless 10% of the population becomes much wealthier as they market for anything (cars, apartment buildings, food) is now much smaller. 

I dont know, but this is the way it seems, when the music stops and you are one of the few that has a chair, you have not only preserved your wealth but increased it dramatically.

Maybe that is only in the case of hyperinflation.  Any feedback on this from the big brains here would be appreciated.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:56 | Link to Comment msmith9962
msmith9962's picture

Sorry, bad math, very tired.  90% with cash, 10% with gold.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

See my post above. Some things will deflate rapidly, others slowly, and others will inflate.

Using the gold for things that have deflated most is probably a wise choice, assuming they are desirable things or will be in the future, and you have all your essentials covered.

In your example, the paper currency was worth ~$0. So in that case, there would be an enormous wealth transfer. If the paper can still purchase something, the wealth transfer effect is less. Also, I don't believe gold was taxed at 25% in Weimar, so there's that. I think ZH and all sound money people need to work on banishing that tax. It really does hold gold down, and I fear they'll raise taxes without public outcry to lower it. Something people must keep in mind is that govt will do everything possible to avoid transfering wealth to average guys who are holding gold (most likely via a tax).

There are websitse like change.org where we can setup petitions for this kind of thing.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:29 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

When fiat crashes, nobody will report their exchanges of real, physical goods for other real, physical goods... whether or not those goods are gold and silver.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:33 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

For things that don't require a title transfer, etc, that is fine, but say you wanted to trade gold for a home. How do you see that happening? The owner takes the gold, and reports that the house is a "gift" to the stranger? Seems that would trigger an audit.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:54 | Link to Comment spinone
spinone's picture

Title transfers of property are already bogus because of the separation of the mortgage and the note.  Without a mortgage the note is meaninless, and vice versa.  But thats a technicality.

Whats important to understand is that the rule of law is just a myth.  Laws and regulations have always been a formalized social conventions.  Social conventions apply differently to different strata of society.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 23:52 | Link to Comment Religion Explained
Religion Explained's picture

Impostor...

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:55 | Link to Comment spinone
spinone's picture

dupe deleted

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 21:03 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

Ironically, if you look at title transfers today (at least in my state) you'll see a carryover from the conversion to FRN from the gold standard days -- every real estate title transation I've had has listed the price as "For $10 and other valuable consideration."

I don't think I've ever had to report a real estate transaction to the IRS on the buy side, and presumably the seller would only have to if there was a profit or loss claimed, and even that can be managed in the negotiation ($X in FRN for taxes, Y ounces other consideration.) So there's no real "in" for an audit at the federal level.

The key here is this will only work for places with no mortgage, or morgages held by banks that are, er, flexible.

That said, a federal property tax or title transfer system is one of my personal "four horsemen" indicators of imminent collapse or government coup/takeover. My guess is that it won't happen, but it'll be one the the last-minute proposals to save the system that is made just before everything goes boom.

 

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 22:13 | Link to Comment JohnG
JohnG's picture

Sell it for $1.  I've done that for cars to avoid "emmisions" checks.  I like old trucks that I can actually fix.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:26 | Link to Comment Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

All FRN's have a Maratime lien on them so anything you buy with them belongs to the Bankers , always use one OZ of silver plus FRN's to perchase property.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 23:44 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

I think you're overlooking an important point.   When USD loses WRC status and approaches 0 value, America will be in such horrible chaos paying taxes will be the least of your worries.

 

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:39 | Link to Comment knowshitsurelock
knowshitsurelock's picture

"How do you see that happening? The owner takes the gold, and reports that the house is a "gift" to the stranger? Seems that would trigger an audit."

If you are paying in full, make sure the seller clears all the liens on it, and gives you a "Grantor" deed, which you take home and put it in your safe (your new home).

Don't bother with the friggin county recorders office, don't contract with them through recording the deed.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 16:20 | Link to Comment jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

pay a title examiner to examine the title. if it is clear, there is no need to record it.  however, you will need to notify the clerk of where to send the property tax bill.  iv'e often wondered about creating a realty trust for the property and, rather than transferring a deed, changing the name of the trustee and beneficiary.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:43 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

For those interested, here are some of the tax issues:

http://www.ictaonline.org/about-icta/ictas-ongoing-issues

These all need to be repealed and/or dissuaded. Govt is going to try to keep citizens out of pms as this gets worse...

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 00:36 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Some things will deflate rapidly, others slowly, and others will inflate.

No, nothing will "deflate".   Prices may fall from demand collapse (like housing is doing right now), but that's not "deflating", it's just falling prices. 

Just like nothing will "inflate".  Prices may rise from currency debasement, and perhaps from demand increase, but that's not "inflating", it's just rising prices.

The only thing inflating (in economic terms) is the money supply, which causes the currency to lose value.

We're heading into an inflationary depression.  Nothing "defates" in an inflationary depression.  Prices on some things may fall, but that's not "deflation". 

Somebody here on ZH keeps talking about "biflation".  There's no such thing as "biflation".

 

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 02:41 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Yes, you're right deflation would be a decrease in money supply, not decreasing prices.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Gold during Weimar was something like 1 gold necklace chain link = 1 loaf bread.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 23:07 | Link to Comment ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

I always read those Weimar stories as being evidence not so much of gold's high value as the (temporarily) extremely low value of everything else.  Downtown commercial real estate just isnt worth anything in a country that cannot feed itself.  Obviously if you buy it and the nation recovers you win bigtime, but at the moment you trade your gold away you are probably a "sucker" in economic terms.

 

 

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:39 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

    Downtown commercial real estate just isnt worth anything in a country that cannot feed itself.

Or in a country where you're likely to be shot when you try to leave the building.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 15:02 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

I always read those Weimar stories as being evidence not so much of gold's high value as the (temporarily) extremely low value of everything else.

I see it a tad differently,golds value then,was the total lack of any form of money,other than what had been real money for 6000yrs.

NO ONE(except Gld holders) had anything of intrinsic value to purchase anything,regardless of price,or supply.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 21:18 | Link to Comment dolph9
dolph9's picture

kito:

In the current environments most assets (such as stocks, bonds, and real estate) are depreciating against currency, and the better the currency, the more valuable.

So gold > cash > most assets.

So gold can rise even as fiat retains some of its value.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 21:21 | Link to Comment killallthefiat
killallthefiat's picture

No, other overvalued assets (REO, shares, pensions) will taken a heavier hit.  All combined will lose purchasing power, but gold will still gain in the "Great Revaluation".  (Can I copyright that?)

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 07:02 | Link to Comment TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

That's why I'm buying the mining stocks instead. They are undervalued compared to the metals and so there is real money to make. Gold & silver are NOT investments, they are ways to secure purchasing power.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

which ones?

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:17 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Bragging rights.
I was gonna wait until there were riots in the street, rape, pillaging, flames, vandals, Visigoths, society's fabric torn asunder, instability at all levels, danger abounding, fear and trepidation at every breath just awaiting the moment of death and destruction...

Then taking out an ad in the local broadsheet or hiring a town crier to go proclaim throughout the land that the Knukleman has a humongous pile of precious metals, diamonds, rubies and associated goods buried on his property and secreted unprotected about his house at thus and such address.

And get a big ass neon sigh lit up with the noisiest generator possible that says LIQUOR, GOLD, AMMO & PUSSY

That'll show the naysayers.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:22 | Link to Comment GlomarHabu
GlomarHabu's picture

 

 

OMG not the Visigoths, not again.

Also if your large neon sign ,noisy generation all announcing liquor,gold,ammo and yes PUSSY it will also be announcing .....COME ROB ME ....

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 07:18 | Link to Comment Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Why did you leave out DOPE on your sign?

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:48 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I'm a little jealous you secrete precious metals.  Most of what I secrete isn't worth a damn.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:07 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Agree, gold got ahead of itself during the debt ceiling 'fiasco' and has been rightfully correcting for over a year. That correction appears over.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:17 | Link to Comment Pubcoceo
Pubcoceo's picture

It could be even more important as a store of wealth in a deflationary depression, and I don't think it's clear that that is not what we are going to get???

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:20 | Link to Comment GlomarHabu
GlomarHabu's picture

 

 

Having bought and held 300k of Au since mid 2006 I'm not mov'n ...nor do I believe Tylers assessment is a bad one. Far from it.

For those inclined to sell when it breaks $2000/oz .... do it. I just know that this time it ain't different and inflation will eventually crush our economy and drive gold higher. Which on the whole for me....a good thing.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:02 | Link to Comment Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Be careful what you wish for.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:17 | Link to Comment GlomarHabu
GlomarHabu's picture

 

 

No wish, a plan ... NO economy has EVER printed it's way out of debt. One might argue deflationary/inflationary all day, but the end result is always that inflation gets the win and kills economies.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:48 | Link to Comment knowshitsurelock
knowshitsurelock's picture

""For those inclined to sell when it breaks $2000/oz .... do it. I just know that this time it ain't different and inflation will eventually crush our economy and drive gold higher.""

So, shouldn't we lock in a house now at the current price before inflation takes off?  One would be paying it off over time with cheaper and cheaper dollars.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:23 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Shush don't tell anyone. I need just one more purchase but I have to wait a week.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

Jim Rickards spoke on Bloomberg this afternoon, saying he thinks QE3 may start after the next FOMC meeting or at least after election time.  You might get your chance.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 02:40 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Anyone notice gold and silver stocks big gap up today?   What is The Bernank thinking?  QE is doing nothing to the economy.  Is he trying to save Hussein before the election?  This looks too late now.  QE 1 or 2 did not "work."

Or is he trying to save his job with Romney? 

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The central banks are trying to suck in more gold so they are allowing the price of paper gold to increase just enough to get people to sell what they have through places like " we buy gold here" shops. Once the time is right they will allow the price of gold to increase more rapidly as people "investors" finally scramble for it. Then the banks and central banks will gladly sell it to them for a handsome profit.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

YES! Finally! Someone else has spoken the truth. This has been about the central banks for over a year. This is all about dumping bad sovereign debt on the tax[ayer and sweeping up gold at rock bottom prices! The central banks will let prices rise only when the market is bare of physical! Until then it is grab as grab can. THE GENLEMEN'S AGREEMENT TO REFRAIN FROM GOLD PURCHASES HAS LONG BEEN ABANDONED. The market price is completely immaterial to the real demand. Free fiat is being used by the governments to tank the futuires market while accumulation occurs. Better be accumulating now.....or never.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Absolutely right then the reset will come and the game will continue on.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:30 | Link to Comment SIOP
SIOP's picture

I must be dumb, I thought the price of gold has been artificailly held down by the "man" to prolong support for the dollar (reserve currency etc etc)  Is this manipulation going to lessen in the near future?  No mention of that in the article.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

The manipulation will likely increase.

However, with less than 1% of investments being held in gold and silver, a very modest increase in investment in gold and silver can swap those manipulations, especially investments in physical gold and silver.  Will the predators then increase their manipulation?  Perhaps.  And the longer they do so, the more spring-loaded the price of gold and silver will be, which is a great argument to buy and hold gold and silver until the spring is released.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 21:12 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

I think a key point to remember is that it costs TPTB money (granted, it's printed, but nevertheless, it's something that has to be managed) to manipulate. So as you've correctly noted, investment demand can swamp the manipulations and it definitely makes them more expensive.

Every time JPM/TPTB expands the already massive short position and things go the wrong way, that's money out of pocket -- and the price to JPM keeps going up for them until the short is covered -- and if they cover the short, the price of the metal goes higher. That particular catch-22 makes the expense of manipulation (and the size of the price swings) grow very rapidly when this shit unwinds.

1 ounce of AU rehypothecated 100 times is one hell of an amplifier when it gets away from you.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

Yes, that 100:1 rehypothecation can be taken advantage of, but only if people demand physical.  But we should stop adopting the nice-words like "rehypothecation" and call fraud what it is --- which is fraud.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:32 | Link to Comment dwayne elizando
dwayne elizando's picture

GOLD, no, wait, please come back, I love you.........ah fine then, silver's lookin more attractive than you anyways bitch!

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:35 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

 Was that the fastest 50 lbs in gold you ever pooled and spent away? Can you say dry powder anyone??

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 19:55 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

I'm bookmarking this page and diarising it to be read in 2, 4, 12 and 52 weeks time. It should be fun!

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment jumbo maverick
jumbo maverick's picture

A shot of peptobismal should take care of your diarising.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

In gold we trust.
In silver we trust.
In platinum we trust.

Any fiat that comes our way is instantly converted into real goods, including the above.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:26 | Link to Comment SoloBolo
SoloBolo's picture

I cant wait to use my dollars to wipe my ass.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:37 | Link to Comment Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

The people who are manipulating the markets, including PM's, are the same people who will attempt to determine the relative value of gold once they finally destroy everything a la the "currency."

Said another way -- the control structure will not roll over when/if the almighty dollar starts to take its final death spiral.

Invest in Truth with caution, 'cuz there ain't any.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 20:45 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

For me, it makes no difference when gold hits 1,800, 1,900 or 2,800. I have it to preserve my purchasing power. It is our insurance and it helps us sleep well at night. But will admit, not too many "brilliant ones" today telling us how stupid we are owning gold, silver, miners and not CMG or AMZN.

MDB and Robot are quiet today. :)

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 21:12 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

You have a little spare change .... you want to save it for a rainy day .... you could buy gold .... you could buy bonds repayable in "Green Fairy Fart Federal Reserve Notes" due in 30 years ?

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 21:55 | Link to Comment Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

My house is down another 3.8% this month and my GLD is up over 4%. These PMs (and oil) are really saving me ...a great hedge against my very bad decision to buy a house.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 22:38 | Link to Comment My Days Are Get...
My Days Are Getting Fewer's picture

One of the better articles from Casey Research.

I have been "all in" with gold and silver since 2006.  If you don't own any or enough, then the author's advice is worth taking.

There are too many fairytales written about selling metal under the table for zero tax on profits.  That could happen with small transactions - but, when you hit $10,000, the buyer is going to demand a big discount from the spot maket to make the payout in cash with zero paperwork.  And, no real estate buyer in his right mind will trade metal for land at a recorded value of $10.  That means that, when he sells the property, he has to tax 100% of his sale's price with zero tax basis in the property.

The same goes with selling metal.  For big profits, you are looking at 28% Federal Tax + effectively another 5% to the State which means 33% tax on profits.  

 

But, if you are patient, you will not care because you will liquidate huge profits. The run in Gold and silver will continue to possibly 2020.  I have no crystal ball.  But I know this:  If I sell my metal and pay my taxes, I have nothing to reinvest in.  Nothing safe.

Don't let the bastards get you down.  I stopped tracking portfolio values in February 2012.  I knew then, as I know now, that metal prices are heavily manipulated.  You can not trade these markets.  Gold and silver is the last bastion for the "buy and hold" investor.  Guys like Jim Sinclair will give you a sell signal.  Just read ZH and stay out of the fray.  At least, that is what I have been doing.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 08:01 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Actually the best way to convert gold is overseas, then you take that wad of cash and convert it to dollars. You can get way over $2000/oz once the 2 way transaction is completed.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:13 | Link to Comment BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

Couple ounces each to five or six guys.

Also, who is to say I made a profit? "I bought the damn stuff last week, it's gone down a quarter since then, and I paid premium over spot!"

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment knowshitsurelock
knowshitsurelock's picture

It amazes me how these pundits make their decisions based on the tax implications, when trading actual physical assets.

When the SHTF, and blood is running in the streets, and people are starving, and assets are being bartered for survival, who is going to give a shit about uncle Sam and taxes?

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 23:39 | Link to Comment fukidontknow
fukidontknow's picture

The $US they said it was as good as gold?

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 23:51 | Link to Comment Religion Explained
Religion Explained's picture

Impostor ....

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 00:13 | Link to Comment Silver Bully
Silver Bully's picture

'This is not so much a description of the increasing value of gold, but the decreasing standard of living in the US.'

Correct. Gold's rising price in a particular currency is a reflection of the devaluation of that currency. Gold's value doesn't change (much), which is why it truly valuable - it is honest money.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 00:22 | Link to Comment Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

 

 

For most of 2010-11 I took some time away from my company to handle a side gig for a large U.S. PM refiner.

This refiner produces two end products; large rough ingots of fine gold (which were sold back into the cartel) and fine gold 'shot' (looks like gold BBs), which was sold to jewelers, electronics companies, etc..

That 'gig' I took was setting up a new mining operation deep in the jungles of Liberia.

The *reason* for them wanting to go in this direction at all was that the normal source of feedstock into their refinery (scrap gold from those 'cash for gold' places) was becoming increasingly difficult to find in the volumes they needed to fill standing orders from their industrial partners. The U.S. and Canada were drying up.

I can tell you that from this perspective within the industry, quite a bit of the gold once held by the average Joes and Janes in N. America is now gone. Forever. It was sold off the last time Au was on the climb to the last highs. And you can bet your ass that with the number of people out of work in this country that personal gold stashes are even more rare. There are many people hurting out there.

Heed the guidance you see here on Zero Hedge.

1. Save any physical you currently have, quietly.

2. Acquire more if you have the means, quietly.

3. Dump everything else before you dump any metals.

4. Thank the Lord for the means to purchase what you do have.

 

There are many people out there hurting. Bad. And it only going to get worse.

 

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 00:46 | Link to Comment analyzer_66
analyzer_66's picture

eww, dollar on ass?? - same dollar that touched nasty Obongo economy whore nose snorting coke or heroin - you still wanna wipe with that dollar ??

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 06:49 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Yea, seriously. Not to mention, those fiat notes are not the softest papers in the world. I mean, who wants a rash on their bum? More importantly, who wants an infected rash on their bum?

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 00:45 | Link to Comment jabhagsb
jabhagsb's picture

I own gold and silver, metals and miners.  But I thought it was quite funny when I recently realized that my best returning investment thus far in 2012 is my bitcoin account.  Bought around $5, now up to $10.  100% return in the past 8 months.  Not too shabby. 

 

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 01:01 | Link to Comment laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

in order to profit from owning gold you must eventually sell it. That requires a functioning market, means dealing with tax authorities and government, etc. And, then, you don't own gold anymore.

 

Think about this.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 02:50 | Link to Comment Newager23
Newager23's picture

I don't mean to be critical, but your post falls into the two reasons people don't own gold: 1) They don't think they need it. 2) They think it is a risky investment. 

Instead, realize how lucky your are to have found ZH and just start buying it -- at least 10% of your assets. I recommend silver, but gold is just as good.

A functioning market? If markets go away, that is exactly the time you will wish you had some physical metal.

Tax authorites? Don't be afaid that precious metals are too risky to own. You should be concerned that they are too risky not to own.

Newager

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 07:51 | Link to Comment Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

You forgot the third and fourth reason people don't own gold:

3. No "tax deduction" for buying gold as an investment without major hassles.

4. They don't have any FRNs to buy gold.

A little "OT" but I found this site this morning, to determine the real value of USD or FRNs or other fiat, you choose the fake money, say, FRNs, then type in the amount. In my case, I selected FRNs, then typed in $3.92 [The price I paid for a gallon of premium gasoline] and it came back with:

Pay with silver…

$0.17 face value of US Silver Coins worth USD $3.92 **

All prices quoted at "melt value" -- the amount of actual gold and silver in the coin multiplied by the current spot price.
** Face value of US 90% silver coin -- dimes, quarters, and halves minted before 1965.

There is a box you can add "premium". Say I paid a 1% premium to get 90% silver coins. I just type that in. The spot price is adjusted to reflect a 1% premium. Obviously, if it is less than a penny, it won't show up.

Here is another calculation. Homes like mine have been selling for around $125K lately. So I plug that into the formula, with a 4.6% premium for AGEs.

Pay with silver…

$5,275.79 face value of US Silver Coins worth USD $125,000.00 **

Pay with gold & silver…

American Eagle gold coins:

70 $50 (1 oz) coins worth USD $123,775.35

1 $25 (1/2 oz) coin worth USD $884.11

1 $5 (1/10 oz) coin worth USD $176.82

and $6.91 face value of US silver coins worth USD $163.72 **

Take a median income for a man in the USA of $44,000

$1,857.08 face value of US Silver Coins worth USD $44,000.00 **

Pay with gold & silver…

American Eagle gold coins:

24 $50 (1 oz) coins worth USD $42,437.26

1 $25 (1/2 oz) coin worth USD $884.11

1 $10 (1/4 oz) coin worth USD $442.05

1 $5 (1/10 oz) coin worth USD $176.82

and $2.52 face value of US silver coins worth USD $59.76 **

Now isn't that interesting.... Gives you the real picture on what things are worth. Gasoline is around 17 cents a gallon, a modest home in the central USA is around $3,500, an average man gets paid about $1,857.08  in real money a year [or $35.71 a week].

I will be using that calculator to see what things are worth in real money all the time now.

http://www.silverandgoldaremoney.com/

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

That's interesting, but it's misleading.  The "face value" of anything is just a reminder that you're looking at fiat, rather than a commodity.

They could always have stamped whatever number they wanted on the little metal discs.

Go ahead and repeat the calculations using the 1 cent copper coins we used to have and you'll get a different figure, but copper remains a far more important industrial metal than gold or silver.  

It doesn't *mean* anything.  They're just trying to sell you stuff.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 18:21 | Link to Comment Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

You are wrong, sir. 1964 and before silver coins have SILVER in them. Silver has value, more than copper by weight.

If you don't get that, you are quite thick.

The coins are valued at this time based on silver value. They are also legal tender, but "bad" money chased "good" silver coins out of circulation.

The bottom line, 1.7 1964 dimes purchases 1 gallon of gasoline. Back in 1964, it took about 3.4 silver dimes to purchase the same quantity/quality of gasoline.

That is what it "means". I am not trying to sell you anything, nor am I purchasing anything based on a webpage calculator.

Enjoy your ignorance, I am told it is bliss. You must be a very happy man.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Silver coins contained silver, but at the time they were valued, the silver in them was worth LESS than the face value.  The face value was set according to government policy, not by market valuation of precious metals.

You're pretending that the increase in the value of silver has perfectly tracked the price increases over the years, but that's not true.  The silver value has appreciated *more* than prices have increased.  That's why I suggested repeating the calculation with copper--it's to demonstrate that the copper appreciation occurred at a different rate.

You're right about one thing--it's clear there's someone here who lacks a basic understanding of the issue.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 15:17 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

in order to profit from owning gold you must eventually sell it. That requires a functioning market, means dealing with tax authorities and government, etc. And, then, you don't own gold anymore.

No it doesn't,(IMHO) ever heard of barter?.This nation existed nearly 200yrs, without the .goobers, having any idea of the market,or any say in how people did bidness.

Nothing is saying the same will not happen again, if it gets bad enough bank it.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

hey is this like a housing buble, gold always goes up?

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

No, goose egg, it's like a reverse housing bubble where the value of the denominator is always falling. Think of it like this:

Ounces
--------------------
Money supply

The denominator keeps changing with the money supply. Compare 1/2 with 1/5 with 1/25. The '1' stays the same, but the bottom number keeps growing.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 09:31 | Link to Comment richard007
richard007's picture

World conditions have driven Gold and Silver to these high levels.

 

When Iran starts its War on the west, Gold and Silver will go through the roof.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

'When Iran starts its War on the west'

 

lol

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment jumbo maverick
jumbo maverick's picture

Didnt you mean when the west starts it's war on Iran?

Nice try special agent.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 16:02 | Link to Comment Fractal Parasite
Fractal Parasite's picture

At least study MDB before you try to be funny.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment augmister
augmister's picture

Nope.  Not yet.  Waiting for the Greek and or Spanish collapse, which ever comes first, and the flight to the FNR... which will spike and the PM's will sink.    THAT will be "the time" to back up the bus .... Beware of the headfakes....

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Reptil
Reptil's picture

European savers generally don't like dollars as risk free investment, AFAIK.

 

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 16:14 | Link to Comment Fractal Parasite
Fractal Parasite's picture

European savers don't control huge amounts of capital - the fund managers do, and they are quite disposed to fleeing to the perceived safety of US Treasury Bonds and the like. That pushes the USD up in times of financial trouble overseas and everything else down, including PMs. But the day will come when they too flee out of USD and into safer assets.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Thought criminal
Thought criminal's picture

This irrational gold hype after it bounces on more QE hopium will only make people lose their money. Looks more like a shortable short term top to me.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Tc, Okay. Why don't you put your cash in a 10 year T bond at 1.43%?

Tell you what - you go with the T bond and I'll go with the physical gold.

Meet back here in say, 2 years to compare. Thats if you still have a couple of pennies to rub together!

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Thought criminal
Thought criminal's picture

Guess you didn't get me right. I'm a long term bull in PMs, but the friday ramp up is based on nothing more than pure QE speculation. I think these COTs speak for themselves: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1346441647.php

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

If gold is viewed as an investment or a financial asset I think you are right, despite others won't agree with it.

Actually, gold is a relict from the past, something which is bound to the financial markets, and reasonable rare. Nothing more, nothing less. If we could get rid of the financial slavery system gold will lose lot of its magic and "worth".  Besides, the wealthy have reserves in gold and within a revolution meant to dethrone the very people gold needs to be brought back to what it is: Its precious, it is rare - nothing more. You can't eat it, you can't use of it in the daily life, it has no extra function for most. I believe, gold will be outperformed in the future by water, ground, oil/gas and anything else that delivers energy

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

true wealth is in a man's labor".  john locke

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment mkhs
mkhs's picture

And the choir sang "Hallelujah." 

 

What garbage analysis.  Three unique moments are used to extrapolate the future.  Unless today's conditions exactly matches those of the previous crashes, any relation is purely coincidental. 

 My method, involving the innards of a freshly slaughtered chicken, is just as valid.

And then, there is the snakeoil sales pitch.  Hurry and buy now.  This deal won't last.  Every correction ends.  Buy now.  Hurry.  Such a sale side shill.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 19:16 | Link to Comment oggershughes
oggershughes's picture

From a technical perspective, Gold has not yet confirmed above major monthly resistance and is still in a vulnerable position. USDX is at major support. The dual nemesis staring down Gold right now is a very sharp market selloff and a surging dollar. Once the market rolls over, graphically presaged by even a cursory glance at SPY or AAPL volume trends accompanied by a MACD Mother of All Negative Divergences, Gold will sell off with everything else that's not nailed down. The Bernank is not going to inject the adrenaline in to a market at lofty and unsupportable highs. That hyperinflationary bazooka can only be unleashed when the market is on it's knees and that, along with a falling Dollar will be the rocket under Gold. Personally, I am waiting for the correction to complete before buying for the massive surge. 

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 22:30 | Link to Comment knowshitsurelock
knowshitsurelock's picture

BTFD?

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 02:35 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up
Beam Me Up's picture

Can someone find out what happened AFTER the Weimar experience when the new currency regime came in?  It seems that finding out how gold savers faired then would provide great insight into this subject.

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Rolf
Rolf's picture

you'll lose your 401K before your Au and Ag.

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!