The Harsh Reality In Greece

Tyler Durden's picture

As rumors circulate regarding recaps, EuroTARPs, nationalizations, no-need-for-new-capital, no-NET-exposure-to-French-banks, we point out that Greek government bonds (GGBs) have quietly crept into the night with the 2Y price breaking below EUR40 for the first time and the long-end bond prices breaking below EUR30 for the first time. Given the 20% haircuts in the stress tests and the 60-70% haircuts the markets are expecting, we can only guess at banks need for capital - or will MtM suspension magically wipe all of those fears away? Meanwhile, away from the headline grabbing PIIGS, Germany CDS is +7bps at 113bps, Austria is 15bps wider at 185bps, and Belgium just broke 300bps.



And a mere three weeks after the miraculous merger (that will save everything), Alpha Bank has dropped almost 57% from its highs that day!!


Chart: Bloomberg

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Irish66's picture

not Belgium too

covert's picture

stupid people always order more govt without enough money.


CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is really, truly not rocket science.

Greece defaults with politician and banker blood flowing from bullet holes in skulls . . . or Greece defaults and the Red Cross and other aid agencies arrive over night to provide food and keep the population pacified.

If the latter scenario unfolds, Italy, Portugal, Spain and anyone else with burdensome debt defaults and arranges Red Cross transport plane priority.

If the former scenario unfolds, the ECB starts printing.  Greek skull blood will be the indicator of whether or not the other countries default.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

BTW, folks, it is in this context that Referendum defines the escape hatch.

No socialist politician will vote to fire unionized government workers.  There could be no revenue and no further lenders and they STILL would not vote to cut.  

But when skull blood is the alternative to anything they might vote, the answer is Referendums.  Offer the people austerity or default, per their own vote.

That is the escape hatch for politicians.  It condemns bankers to nothingness, though.

MS7's picture

I don't know much at all about economics, but I wanted to say that the folks governing Greece are not real socialists. They're more neo-liberals. They really don't have any ideology. Rather, most of them are just looking out for #1-- themselves. The PM may just be trying to please his friends, the leaders of Europe. I can't figure him out. But they all must know that their party is totally destroyed. Very few people in Greece would ever vote for this party again. The party members fear for their lives when they walk the streets. They must have some plan for a cushy job or cushy retirement when they leave office. Otherwise, they would not have made so many unpopular decisions. By government workers, you mean public sector workers, right? Well, the "socialist" government has so far had no problem making them into scapegoats, calling them lazy and blaming them for the problems of Greece, even though they put them there in order to gain votes.

taraxias's picture

The folks governing Greece are kleptocrats.......PERIOD. 

Cpl Hicks's picture

You are, of course, speaking of the ECB. Because the Greek government doesn't appear to be in control.

Flounder's picture

Meanwhile in other news Bank of Countrywide Lynch is also selling Pizza to raise cash.


Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is in exclusive discussions to sell its stake in the biggest U.S. Pizza Hut franchisee, to two private-equity firms, for more than $800 million, Bloomberg said citing two people with knowledge of the talks.

The buyout firms are jointly bidding for NPC International Inc., which operates 1,140 Pizza Hut restaurants, according to Reuters.

BofA spokesman Jerry Dubrowski declined to comment, while NOC chief financial officer Troy Cook didn't return messages seeking comment, Reuters said.

Ancona's picture

The denials coming our of Europe are beginning to make them look pretty comical. It would appear they took denial lessons from Lehman Brothers and Angelo Mozilla, because the information coming from private sources is the exact opposite of what comes out of their pie holes.

When Greece goes up in flames, the dominos start falling at an ever increasing speed until they fall in to the Atlantic, sending a tidal wave to the U.S. This shit is real and happening in real time, but the PTB have their fucking heads buried in the sand in complete denial. They need to grow the fuck up, put on some big-boy pants and deal with this steaming heap before it deals with them.

Larry Darrell's picture

Why would they suspend Mark to Myth??

Oh, suspend Mark to Market.

I just assumed everyone had already followed the US into the asylum already.

virgilcaine's picture

Fade this rally folks.. red on close today.  Silver is saying.. major credit default on the way.

scratch_and_sniff's picture

Some people are going become very rich should they not default, good luck to them.

Robslob's picture



In order for defaults (much like QE) to work...they must come as a total surprise...

Curtis LeMay's picture


Shit, meet fan...


Greece ‘considers partial default’

The Times


Last updated September 23 2011 11:38AM UK
By Charles Bremner in Brussels


The spectre of a Greek bankruptcy loomed a little closer today with reports that its Government is contemplating default on 50 per cent of its debt and the head of the Dutch Central Bank openly saying that Greek insolvency is possible.

Evangelos Venizelos, the Greek Finance Minister, told MPs in his Socialist party that an orderly default with a 50 per cent “haircut”, or loss for state bondholders, is one of three scenarios for resolving the country’s debt crisis, according to two Athens newspapers.



vast-dom's picture