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Has Japan Run Out Of Cans To Kick?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Japan's Trade and Current Account imbalances appear to be hitting some kind of terminal velocity and while neither JGBs nor CDS seem to reflect the ensuing chaotic recognition that perhaps the can that has been so faithfully kicked down the "Nishi-no-michi" or the West Road may have plunged over the lip of Mount Fuji (conjuring images of Mordor), FX markets recent and abrupt weakness brought on by yet more printing (a topic we discussed in great detail recently as the chosen heretical method du decade) may well be coming face to face with reality. We assume Azumi is faithfully watching these market moves but we wonder at what point the quasi-intentional weakening of local currencies flares into a full-blown currency war - and instead of merely encouraging simpleton FX-carry strategies chasing momentum and leverage - quickly becomes the hyperinflationary super nova that many have been waiting for over the last decade. Dismal demographics aside, we wonder how long before Koo prescribes yet more of the same medicine for this constant state of deflation and at what point does inverted-Apple-looking charts for Trade and Current Account balances become simply too hot to handle...

The Japan trade balance has tipped into extreme freefall...

 

As has the Current Account balance...

And the absolute basis (purple line) between CDS and JGBs remains notably above any of its peers reflecting more of the possibility of a hyperinflationary or devaluation 'event' than Greece-like default given its currency-manufacturer status as opposed to its currency-user status (a la Greece)...

The basis (5Y 83bps) above is all the more shocking (almost triple the bond yield) when considered in relative terms - i.e. compared as a ratio to the extreme low yields of JGBs (5Y 29bps!! and 10Y charted below)...

so perhaps the recent 'crash' in USDJPY, catching up to FX vol risk-reversals (a measure of the FX options market's implicit skew to bullish or bearish sentiment) is the start of bigger things...

 

or is it simply yet another false alert on the road to Mordor for Japanese Central Bankers?

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:49 | Link to Comment The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

land of the sinking sun

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:59 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Now this is serious. If Japan goes down, so does US/UK 24hr control of financial markets.

Oh dear...

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:53 | Link to Comment Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Now this is serious.

Not really.  Not yet. 

Won't BSB just set up some FX swaps and buy the Neiki?  Buy the JGB?  Buy Tepco?  Buy everything???

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:56 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

They use Japan to move future markets on Sunday nights. Usually, when the US opens a trend is already in place. You'll remember Hanks Sunday night revelations in 2008, very telling...

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 05:21 | Link to Comment Western
Western's picture

The Eastern front is about to get a whole lot more dicey.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 06:42 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Another factor is that if the USD reserve status went down in a heap the US also loses the ability to continuously track and target funds in private accounts everywhere, and to 'freeze them' or confiscate them, it will lose its toadies, and also be less able to fin-fuck whole countries and individuals.

Thus providing another excellent rationale for states to collaborate to delouse themselves of USD and geopolitical (i.e. Washington) exposure.  USSA's constant, habitual and ever-amplifying meddling in other countries internal affairs and inciting conflicts is more than fair cause to rid the world of USD.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 07:09 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Sooooo.....basically what you're saying is we've got plenty of cans.....we're just out of road.

 

 

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 07:24 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

No, basically we have one can, cos we can't afford any more, and no more room to kick it.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 08:38 | Link to Comment Thamesford
Thamesford's picture

I think its more like the French "Can-Can". You sort of kick in the air at an imaginary can and try to impress everyone by lifting your skirt.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

No offence but I'd kind of figured that one out already...

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 20:54 | Link to Comment Tompooz
Tompooz's picture

Yea. Good news for New Zealand. 

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:00 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

 

 

So where will the shit hit the fan?

Will it come from Athens or Tehran?

Madrid, Lisbon or Rome?

Or from Ben here at home?

I’m with Kyle, keep an eye on Japan

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:22 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The tsunami destabilized Japan and looks like their house of cards will tumble. Japan will destabilize the house of cards that is ZIRP. What will happen if/when the Fed cannot dictate interest rates? This is the problem with central planning, even teams of people with 1000 IQs can't plan for everything.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:55 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Yes we can...

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Yeah, me and Harlequin001 do it all the time.  Course his IQ is only 980 but we let him in the club anyway.

Charity work.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

it is if you divide it by two...

I only found out two months ago that an IQ score is not like a golf handicap at all. I used to think I was totaly and utterly stupid, but now I realise I'm actually a certifiable fucking genius.

Howzat for pure blind luck..

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

Read James Stone's Fukushima hypothesis on how the Magna BSP's security cameras were the culprit. Stuxnet did participate there as well, took out not only the plutonium enrichment facility but down with it the Japan's already ailing economy!

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:57 | Link to Comment ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

All of them. At once.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 09:49 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Yeah.  This feels like I'm bowling and the pinsetter is getting it ready.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 05:40 | Link to Comment Likstane
Likstane's picture

.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 05:40 | Link to Comment Likstane
Likstane's picture

You might wanna leave the limericks to the King.  Haiku maybe?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:05 | Link to Comment The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

When Japan's Financial system blows it's gonna make hiroshima look like a firecraker

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 07:19 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The PC crowd.....is not going to be pleased with that statement

 

Oh well.........fukem.

 

 

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:23 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

They make good bearings though.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:58 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Let me guess, you make bearings in Japan?..

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 07:49 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Kyle Bass...nailed it, again. It will happen, and many will be thrown under the bus.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 08:32 | Link to Comment Thamesford
Thamesford's picture

Red Drain?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:51 | Link to Comment azusgm
azusgm's picture

The implosion will be epic. So much has hung on the carry trade.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:05 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

"Sterilized QE" coming to Japan?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:09 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The area around Fukushima has been sterilized already.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:54 | Link to Comment Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Is Japan going to keep playing the print money while someone buys your bonds or are they going old school Zimbabwe style, crank up the presses carelessly? Japan is running out of investors for their crappy bonds.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:54 | Link to Comment IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

Man!!!  What part of this friggin world ISN"T on the edge of a cliff.  Or already over the edge?

I know, I know.  Antartica.  And maybe ... I just looked at Google Earth...nope!  Every other friggin part of this world is screwed.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:42 | Link to Comment azusgm
azusgm's picture

Maybe Venezuela? Chavez repatriated their gold.

So, oil and gold. Nice combination as long as they have food, water, and the means to protect their assets,

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:02 | Link to Comment oldman
oldman's picture

The poles are melting down

get the boats out

Fukushima is the big deal-----no much how much noise these markets make

poles melting-----radiation will not be denied----synergetic?

we'll see in time, but keep stacking those metals down in the hole

at least it helps pass the time

oh, shit-------what happens if we have nuclear war?

Man, this is fun---never thought I'd live to see a show like this

never imagined I'd be in the show----so lucky to be here with all of you     thanks    om

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 03:16 | Link to Comment NorthPole
NorthPole's picture

A country very rich in natural resources and with as-of-yet unspoiled populace is still chugging along quite nicely: Indonesia.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:55 | Link to Comment Sylvia Plath
Sylvia Plath's picture

Japan's more screwed than America! At least they know how to cove it up!!!

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:59 | Link to Comment ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

No, because in a financial collapse the Japanese population won't tear itself apart violently. The U.S. population will.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

I watched two shows last night. One on 9/11 and one on the Tsunami last year. In NY people on the ground were stampeding to get out of the path of destruction. Very logical IMO.

In Japan they were barely jogging while this massive wall of water and debris was bearing down on them. I was thinking, what the hell is wrong with these people. Some of them are 100 feet from a safe hill and 300 feet from certain death and thy still won't fuckig run as if it is improper or something. It was very strange to see.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:00 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Japan is desperate. They are invoking VAT taxes, and trying speed up the transistion schedule. Their working class is aging  from 2 decades of deflation. They are being torn apart from Asian counterparts : Korea , China, India.  Japan has very limited natural resources.

    Japan is an albatross, for the Americas. They went apeshit in the 80-90's and destroyed the ( commercial), real estate market in the United States. If any one should have Nukes, it should be Japan! Let Japan deal with China.

  2 Milleniums of torture, should suffice!

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:03 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Yep, Japan's been pretty good at starting wars in the past...

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:14 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Both of my Grandfathers fought in it!

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Did they win?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 06:44 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

And as we know VAT is a regressive tax.

Demand is hardly going to go up, nor deficits down.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 07:51 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Yep, just ask any good German about VAT...

Sat, 03/10/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

Did either one of them fought in Nanjing (1937) too?

 

 

What is often ignored in Western education curriculum, and unknown to Western society in general, is the fact that War in Asia had already erupted by 1937 with the Japanese invasion of China and the subsequent takeover of the then capital city of Nanjing, 4 entire years before the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941. Japanese expansionism had already begun by the early 1930s with the occupation of the northeastern part of China and the establishment of the puppet state of Manchukuo. Full scare war between the Empire of Japan and the Republic of China officially began by July 1937 following the Marco Polo Bridge Incident. By August of 1937, the Japanese launched a full scale assault on the city of Shanghai. They were met with heavy resistance from the Chinese Nationalist army but eventually captured the city after weeks of brutal fighting. By then, the then-leader of China, Chiang Kai Shek, knew that the Japanese’s eventual target would be Nanjing. Knowing that the city would be lost, Chiang Kai Shek pulled out and relocated his government to Wuhan and later Chongqing. He left with most of the Nationalist army in preparation for future battles, leaving only a small, disorganized and greatly undersupplied battalion of soldiers left to defend Nanking. The Japanese slowly made their way to Nanjing after the fall of Shanghai.

The Japanese arrived outside the city walls on December 8, 1937. After 5 days of fighting with the remaining Nationalist army, the wall was breached. The Chinese army remaining in Nanjing were vastly outnumbered and outmatched by the superior Japanese forces and weaponry. After the city fell on December 13, 1937, the Chinese army surrendered their weapons and hoped to be treated with mercy by the occupying Japanese forces. They couldn’t have been more wrong. The events that followed later became known in history as the Nanjing Massacre.

 

Full story is hereThe Tears of Nanjing

 

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:56 | Link to Comment the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

Kyle Bass called it again

 

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:04 | Link to Comment Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

And while you're fearmongering, the Nikkei is about to break 10,000.  Game over.  Ponzi FTW, bitchez!

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:12 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 OOOHHHHH 10K Nikkei! Me so impressed. Did you see the DAX yesterday Ass hole ?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:47 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Y I know your Father! Z

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:09 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Nikkei is still about 75% under what it was on December 29.1989.

(38,915 vs. 10,000)

And, with a quadrillion yen debt, to boot now.

http://e.nikkei.com/e/app/fr/market/nikkeiindex.aspx

 

Again, if the stock market actually reflected the true economy, everyone in Zimbabwe would be driving Bentley's and Bugatti's.

https://mises.org/daily/2532

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:08 | Link to Comment thx111
thx111's picture

Too bad for the US.  One less US (junk)bond buyer now.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:07 | Link to Comment Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

The problem with Japan is I have been hearing the same shit since 1990-something.  Their printing makes Ben look like a piker. I'm still waiting.....

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:01 | Link to Comment Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

You missed the part about frugal Japanese saving money and handing it over to the postal system [of all places].

Their government debt was financed internally.  No one could pull the rug out from under them.

Now the frugal Japanese can't save anymore.  They're retiring.  They need to consume their savings.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:08 | Link to Comment Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Japan trade imbalance is nothing more than Japan importing a mess of fuel to replace the energy from all the nuclear plants that have shut down.  It'll go up further throughout the summer, but the trend won't go any deeper than that.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:06 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Riiiiiight...

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:11 | Link to Comment Fedophile
Fedophile's picture

Which of the 1,433 ETFs is the JGB one?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:13 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Nikei.com shop the index window. You are buying Inflation. Enter at your own risk!

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:14 | Link to Comment thx111
thx111's picture

The problem with Japan is althogh they are in huge debt, Japan has been one of the biggest buyer of the US bond/ treasury.  How can they keep buying huge amount of US treasury while the coutry has been running debt and printing money for over 15 years.  

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:20 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

That was in 2011. Japan is net short U.S. Treasuries in 2012. When the BoJ /MoF failed with the last intervention, they devised an overseas reinvestment program. You are currently seeing devaluation without earnings. Ponzi spending

on the back of purchasing power!        If you buy Japan, I would hedge it at a 3-5 RATIO!    Japan is buying into a recession.

Not reflation! Europe

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:56 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

They can't.  The US is on the exact same path as Japan - the exception being our population is still growing. The Fed is now the number one owner of T-bills - this will only increase as China and Japan unwind.

 EDIT - Here's a list of the largest US debt holders:

 http://www.cnbc.com/id/29880401/The_Biggest_Holders_of_US_Government_Deb...

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 03:16 | Link to Comment oldman
oldman's picture

HD

Not growing---don't believe everything you read    om

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

Not growing?! Trust Obama to pony up more Cash for Bastards.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:05 | Link to Comment oldman
oldman's picture

?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:17 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

!

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:17 | Link to Comment singsing
singsing's picture

We have sorution.  We build more robots.  Robots do our work.  Robots become sentient, earn income and consume.  Robots buy our bonds.  No need immigration.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:21 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Sorbet/ Orange Flavour?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 03:25 | Link to Comment mt paul
mt paul's picture

rehypothicating robots ..?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:18 | Link to Comment BC6
BC6's picture

The problem with Japan is that 30 minutes after eating some JPY, you are hungry again! Err wait ..

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:24 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Not to worry. Japan slowly being absorbed back into  Asia after a long affair with the Anglosphere

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:33 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

actually while this will sound odd "i think the exact opposite is going on." in my view the capital structure of Japan has in effect "abandoned Japan for New York" until Japan is safe for re-habitation. Under this scenario trillions is being financed by the Japanese Government through its primary dealer "Mitsubishi Financial" such that all the technology by which Japan "the country" can be run and as well cleaned up is effected. The way i see it "this is truly a blank check." GE turbines to run the nat gas electrical grid "flat out"..."robotics to begin nuclear clean up"..."expansion of mfg'ering facilities in Kentucky, Ohio and Mississippi" to run production flat out, etc...etc....And "standing in the way is South Korea" which will fight tooth and nail to be the next Honda, Toyota and Sony.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:11 | Link to Comment Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

re. "expansion of mfg'ering facilities in Kentucky, Ohio and Mississippi"

Japan is expanding facilities many places in Asia.

Japan, sadly, out of necessity, is moving out of Japan.

 

In related news.

There is supposed to be an enormous raft of radioactive debri (sp?) making N.American landfall in a couple of months.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment Green Leader
Green Leader's picture

Thank you.

Regards,

GL

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:26 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Japan's debt is internally funded. The US is financed from outside countries.

Japan blows up first, then the US? The US is playing catch-up and fast.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:34 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

not anymore. "Germany up next...

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:27 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

And we dun need no steenkin bond buyers! 

We'll put 'em in cereal boxes, make them redeemable at McDonald's for a happy meal or super-size fries, put faces of past Fed Chairman on them and make them into trading cards.

 C'mon, America! Where's your ole creativity? 

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:32 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

New credo at the Fed : "Non Debitum Quoque Ingens" ( "No debt Too Huge" )

Engraved over main building entrance

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:36 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You'd be surprised how true this can become. Spending would have to be prioritized away from consumption of course for it to remain sustainable...

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:38 | Link to Comment kalmeeg
kalmeeg's picture

Coming soon biggest blockbuster movie - The Revenge of the Widows!

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 04:16 | Link to Comment Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

Can I say it? Can I say it now? I can? Ok, here goes:

"Do I smell gas in here?"

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:14 | Link to Comment non_anon
non_anon's picture

ah, me so horny

edit for you ho's

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6VTj7LhCtE

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:42 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Based on flows. I think the yen will ( struggle to), strengthen in the medium term as foreign investment flows off set diversification!

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 18:22 | Link to Comment sschu
sschu's picture

 

Just a wild guess, but sometime in late March, 2011 there was a high level meeting in Japan to talk about the broader Fuku issue.  They soon came to realize that if they were honest about the nature of the problems, they would need to evacuate Tokyo and this would be the end of their country.  In addition, they cannot afford importing the oil necessary to keep their large industrial base running, so the idea that their nuke plants will be mothballed is just politics.  This also put in place the policy that TEPCO is still viable and managing the Fuku issues and a compliant media was told to forget about investigating the ongoing mess. 

So their economy is the only thing in cold shutdown, they have traded a million people getting cancer for survival of the country and have some serious financial issues (government debt is 235% of GDP!).  Japan is done, debt, demographics, tsunami, Fuku, now trade/CA imbalances.  They will hang on for a while, but their future is very bleak.   

sschu

 

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:43 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

I run a non-profit. Maybe now is a good time to contact Hugh Hendry. He says no one ever calls him.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:44 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Sorry, can explain please?  I thought Japan has been trying to devalue the JPY for a long time.  Last example was post-March quake, but also before then.

 

Is it that they are finally successful in devaluing their currency?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:48 | Link to Comment mt paul
mt paul's picture

sushi flavored 

crack..

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:12 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Japan goes it will take a chunk of China with it, a total repatriation of funds out of Asia back to Japan. They nearly did that in 2011, but instead printed.

Scary part China/Japan both net importers of oil on a major scale.  Cue military tensions i.e Japans navy getting frisky.

They world is moving closer to major conflicts.

The global economy may not make it to the end of 2012.  The great bond market crash once hyper-inflation hits everywhere.  Starting with Europe.  China could blow out anytime, gauged on Aust terms of trade that is sinking (exports, AUD is heavy).  But oil going upward stagflation could rip into China.

So any oil spikes gift from Iran will tip the world into horror show stagflation or Israel drops some...

Rangy rallies till the Greek con job, 48hrs this market hits the March volatility.  

Going to be brutal starting now.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:14 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

have a nice weekend.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:17 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 There is NO WAY you are leaving the party Chump!

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:19 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

haha  don't worry i am here to the end.

but back on Monday.  good luck with your trades.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:34 | Link to Comment non_anon
non_anon's picture

have a rice weekend

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:18 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

AUD getting hammered.  yeah thats a good sign...

something is up. 

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:20 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Yes I'm short. I want to discuss the trade , but everyone is ponzi JPY! Aud is SPX, OIL < GOLD< COPPER, ect...

 

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:22 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

funny thing. is that hedge funds will short aust to get at China cause they are commie and no one can trust their fudgy data.  Their CPI was BS, and exports from aust are getting crunched.  so something is very wrong with china.  I am not that worried about Japan pe se, more China. 

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:28 | Link to Comment cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

japan central bank has difficulties in buying short term bonds.

http://www.jinrongbaike.com/

http://www.cnhedge.com/

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:44 | Link to Comment UncleFurker
UncleFurker's picture

 

You think that looks bad?

 

Just wait until it's finally revealed just how bad Fukushima really was/is. Once that happens the nuclear power industry is dead, worldwide.

 

 

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:51 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Just wait until it's finally revealed just how bad Fukushima really was/is. Once that happens the nuclear power industry is dead, worldwide.

**********

Actually i think the opposite will happen-

I've been buying U-miners for awhile now-

When everyone hates something-it's usually a bottoming signal-

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:44 | Link to Comment donpaulo
donpaulo's picture

As a gaijin living in Japan I can tell you that things ain't getting no better round these parts. Recently I have been proofing and editing end of fiscal year reports that have lots of bad news in them.

I think its just another confirming indicator but who can say what tomorrow holds ?

 

http://battleshipyamato.wordpress.com/

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 03:25 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

So, almighty ZHers, how do we make money off of this?

Give me good Japan short treasury ETF index to trade...

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 05:47 | Link to Comment ZeroIQ
ZeroIQ's picture

I'm in no respect a mighty ZHdger, but I also want to make money out of this. I don't like ETF:s like proshares ultrashort ETF, as they settle daily and i want to keep longer positions. I would recommend a FX option. Thinking about a USD/JPY ATM Call with 180 days left, what do you guys think?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 03:28 | Link to Comment Number 156
Number 156's picture

..You mean there was actually a can to kick?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 05:52 | Link to Comment kaiten
kaiten's picture

Has Japan run out of cans to kick?

 

No, worries, we can supply them with few extra cans, we´ve got quite enough of them ;p

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 06:47 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm tearing the F/X yen charts apart. The BoJ must be spending insane amounts of money to  weaken the yen. All the crosses are elevated and outside interest will offset any JGB sales. I think risk is seriously challenged in the short-medium term. Japans debt to GDP ratio is pathetic, but the savings rate is high. I think the yen (  potentially), is in for a big disappointment.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

Japan can and will buy its own debt, as long as there is a working computer available in Japan this process will continue.

Current account is something countries have little easy control over. Japan's customers in Europe are doing poorly, ditto its US customers. Pushing down the worth of the yen is hard to do when the world is looking for a safe haven. Even the Chinese are looking to escape the imbalances in China. Trade is shrinking even w/o any tariffs or currency-related premia. All of this adversely effects current accounts.

Problems in NZ and Australia also adversely effect yen carry trade that has been keeping Japan's finance sector afloat. This is zero-sum as loss of the carry means more funds are available in Japan to throw down the reactor rathole.

Japan's economy is likely to decline ... as it has declined for the past 20 years. Hated 'money printing' will keep deflation at bay, hopefully long enough for Japan to empty out its reactors and solve its real problem.

Hopefully, Japan will come to its senses and realize industrialization costs more than it can ever return.

Sun, 03/11/2012 - 20:53 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

The governments of the world who have their own fiat currencies will keep their lending-to-government rate near zero, and will create fiat in limitless quantities until their entire system collapses (hyperinflation or nobody will accept their fiat for real, physical goods).

The governments of the world who do not have their own fiat currencies will either become overt, in-your-face slave states, or will have widespread chaos and revolt until they escape or they're thrown out of whatever fake "union" they are part of.

The entire planet is currently run by their predators-that-be and predator-class.  There are ZERO honest people today who have any "official" status or power... or even influence.

The world today is 0.1% predators, 99.8% two-legged sheep, and 0.1% honest, alert, observant --- and wondering how human beings could possibly be so utterly and completely insane, stupid and corrupt.

Result:  Either the predators go, or the human race is finished.  So far, option #2 seems favored by about 99%.  Morons.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:02 | Link to Comment matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

honestann:

"The governments of the world who do not have their own fiat currencies will either become overt, in-your-face slave states, or will have widespread chaos and revolt until they escape or they're thrown out of whatever fake "union" they are part of."

 

ICELAND is solemnly contemplating to become SLAVE voluntarily !!!

if seems that their politicians will be succeeding in selling out the Icelandic at last... a sweet revenge for the past vote-downs.

 

according to bl**mberg:

Iceland will adopt Euro or other crrency, PM says (2012.03.11)

Iceland will either adopt the euro after joining the European Union or drop the krona and unilaterally adopt another currency as “the situation can’t remain unchanged,” said Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir. 

 

“The choice is between SURRENDERING THE SOVEREIGNTY of Iceland in monetary policy by unilaterally adopting the currency of another country or become a member of the EU,” Sigurdardottir said in a speech delivered at a Social Democrat Alliance party convention today in Reykjavik, the capital. EU membership will allow Iceland to “cooperate with EU countries as a sovereign nation, which has a say in the decision and policy making in all fields of cooperation.” 

 

Iceland could fix the krona’s exchange to the euro and be sheltered by the European Central Bank “as early as by the middle of next election term” in 2015, said Sigurdardottir.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:17 | Link to Comment matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

Dylan Grice - Popular Delusions - Japan crisis, no way out (2012-03-01)

==> pdf copy :)

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