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"To Have And Have Not" - Complete Jeff Gundlach Presentation

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier today, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach's held another of his comprehensive overview webcasts, which unfortunately we missed due to the excitement in the Senate Ag Committee where Duffy "let one slip", however for the benefit of our readers we wanted to share the complete 72 page presentation as it covers diverse and critical topics in every aspect of the domestic and global economy.

Full powerpoint:

12-13-11 JEG Webcast Have and Have Nots - FINAL

 

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Tue, 12/13/2011 - 18:48 | 1976319 Hard1
Hard1's picture

To bitch or not to bitch, that is the question bitchez!!!

Whether 'tis Nobler in the arse to suffer

The Slings and Arrows of outrageous Fortune (ouch)

Or to take arms against a sea of troubles

You tell me!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 19:13 | 1976417 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Was you ever bit by a dead bee?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSgqrrWyF0Y

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 19:24 | 1976446 lotusblue
lotusblue's picture

yeah,hurt more than if I knew it was alive-Hahaha

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:16 | 1976620 NewThor
NewThor's picture

If W. Bush, H. Paulson, B. Bernanke, T. Geithner and Barack Obama have used the line....

"If we don't do this NOW! The whole global economy will collapse tomorrow!"

....then how come no one from our government has proposed some type of plan for what happens WHEN the economy collapses?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:47 | 1976709 redpill
redpill's picture

OT: Nothing we didn't already know but....  

National Association of Realtors has been inflating home sales numbers since 2007

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45659547

 

redpill's mention back in February: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dollar-plummets-expectations-qe3-spread#comment-988665

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:52 | 1976742 Aguadulce
Aguadulce's picture

Nice I was just going to post this. Are there any numbers that haven't been f'd with?? My goodness just give me the truth!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 21:03 | 1976779 redpill
redpill's picture

The truth is 2007 existing sales were overstated by about 15%, 2008 by 21%, 2009 by 30%, and 2010 33%, based on my calcs.  We'll see what they come back with when they release their "revision."

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 19:00 | 1976377 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Tyler can you write up a quick piece on another one of the most rotten corrupt groups of people in America..the National Association of Realtors!..Here is CNBC's headline LOL..Realtors: We Overcounted Home Sales for Five Years! http://www.cnbc.com/id/45659547

Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.

You can't make this shit up!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 19:19 | 1976435 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Ha! If they admitted to double-counting, then quadruple is more likely.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 21:02 | 1976776 redpill
redpill's picture

I'd estimate 2007 was overstated by about 15%, 2008 by 21%, 2009 by 30%, and 2010 33%.

 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 21:18 | 1976819 redpill
redpill's picture

Alternate calculation with slightly different approach puts them at 20%/24%/28%/30% overstate from 2007-2010, respectively.  

That means in 2007 they overstated by 1.13 million sales, in 2008 1.17 million sales, in 2009 1.47 million sales, and in 2010 1.46 million sales.

Amazing ain't it?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:05 | 1977158 fuzed
fuzed's picture

May I add this link to apparently the calculation of how much overstatement http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/lawler-on-nar-revisions-for-20...

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 19:47 | 1976515 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Ha Ha ! More proof...if it looks like a number, quacks like a number and waddles like a number, TPTB will wring its neck.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:18 | 1976630 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Re You can't make this shit up!

Of dear - the dreaded Split Infinitive rears its ugly head again.

Try using: You can't make up this shit!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 21:29 | 1976840 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

or how about this way Frankie mc Fuckface, your wife is so ugly she puts shit on her face as make up and it actually improves her looks!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 07:29 | 1977945 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

"of dear"?  this is the kind of pedantry up with which we will not put.  (w.s. churchill as source)

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 19:22 | 1976441 lotusblue
lotusblue's picture

Pretty much reinforces reality for many

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 19:39 | 1976454 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

Phys Silver .2%

Phs Gold 2%

bullets 40%

guns 65 %

food & water 3 mth 2%

401k 65%

Have or Have not

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:13 | 1976601 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Re bullets 40%...guns 65 %

Does this mean that 25% have guns but NO bullets?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:58 | 1976761 Aguadulce
Aguadulce's picture

The only way to bag a classy lady is to give her two tickets to the gun show....no bullets needed there

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 07:30 | 1977949 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

you had us at "bag a classy lady".

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 22:08 | 1976996 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

Ding ding ding Give that man a cigar!

Yes sir... most of the U S public have some sort of a fire arm ... Just dont think about stocking ammo

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 19:31 | 1976469 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

72 pages? I just need three words: "we're all f*cked!"

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:09 | 1976585 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Hmmmm.... that might in fact be 4 words as we're = we are

Nevertheless, the sentiment comes thru loud 'n clear ;)

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 21:30 | 1976849 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

You are fucking Troll!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 22:15 | 1977021 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

Eireann go Brach

Agreed 100%  +1

panfluit  blowing jackass ...

smoke that exploding cigar

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 19:55 | 1976542 YouMightThinkThat
YouMightThinkThat's picture

67% In favor of increasing taxes on higher income Americans
Not that the government machine will spend it any more wisely. I'm sorry but giving the government more money =/= the average guy isn't going to continue getting screwed.

61% In favor of a surcharge on income of >$1 million
How about we start with taking them off the dole first, and then we can talk about a surcharge.

81% Not in favor of major cuts to Social Sec. & Medicare
81% Of people surveyed are in denial.

51% In favor of cutting defense spending...
Now HERE is a statement I can get behind! If we are going to give our drones away, I don't want to pay for them anymore.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:14 | 1976610 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

The middle class is next on the tax raising list. Do you think the growing underclass (that can't even feed themselves) is going to spare them at the voting booth?

They'll regret they even raised the issue. 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:20 | 1976634 kito
kito's picture

i have faith congress will solve the 2015 debt burden, now scheduled to be over 23 trillion. yes, 3 years away and the u.s. debt will be over 23 trillion:

 

http://usdebtclock.org/2015-current-rates.html

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:33 | 1976645 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Yes, usdebtclock.org has US debt at $23.8 trillion and unfunded liabilities at $143 trillion by 2015.  Gundlach has 2015 US debt at $20 trillion.  I would bet on usdebtclock.org

USdebtclock.org has data for this day in 2015.  So it is exactly 4 years away. Gundlach may be talking about January 1, 2015.  That may explain some of the discrepancy,

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:23 | 1977194 kito
kito's picture

thanks for just observing.........

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:11 | 1976596 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

i find this interesting too

Realtors: We Overcounted Home Sales for Five Years

from CNBC clowns http://www.cnbc.com/id/45659547

 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:28 | 1976629 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

greta von susteren looks like bill gross, or at least related, she makes me wanna puke.  todays antics are pretty pukey too.

I thought crash or print, but its more print but no announcement then crash just because, then announce to print jumboooooo.

Bills actually (as it seems) a mild straight shooter, cant argue with that.  I rikey.

 

faraaaraaaraaararaaaaah.......youll shoot your eye out kid hahaha

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:42 | 1976705 PolishHammer
PolishHammer's picture

Abandon ye all hope

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:46 | 1976725 My Taint
My Taint's picture

79 pages? WTF kind of time do you think I have Tylers. Bitch hoops on ESPN currently.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:48 | 1977670 DarkestPhoenix
DarkestPhoenix's picture

That sure is a funny-looking kitchen.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:55 | 1976747 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Don't worry, your feeble minds will be focused on the Middle East soon enough. MF Global is much like Enron, but at a larger scale. Larger problems entail colossal intervention to create distractions by steering the serfs away from financial fraud headlines.

 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 21:06 | 1976765 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

75% BBB+ or below bonds in the Total Return Bond Fund Portfolio? Greece?  Italy?  New Jersey?  CA?  A little scary looking but...

Nice charts, and choice of photos.

The huge disparity of income, non-participation rate for labor, and food-stamp roles do not bode well for anyone.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 21:02 | 1976773 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Slightly OT, but:

"Realtors: We Overcounted Home Sales for Five Years"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45659547

Seems that they are going to revise home sales figures from 2007 to October 2011 way down next week. According the article "the housing market is far worse than previously thought."

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 21:03 | 1976778 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

So, to recap... the paper economy is fooked, gold has proven to be a good bet, give us you money and we will put it in paper assets... WTF???

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 21:11 | 1976799 Questan1913
Questan1913's picture

It seems to me we have a problem in this country with our disturbing proclivity to tolerate lying .and even admire clever liars.  Now if you are shocked by these words and repulsed by this graphic use of the word LIE, you should do some self examination to determine why that is.  I have noticed that this word has all but disappeared from our language and has been replaced by a constantly changing variety of euphemisms such as"misspoke", etc, especially when dealing with politicians and the economic elite.  Watching the LYING, excuse me dissembling, of the esteemed second panel at today's AG committee hearings has unfortunately set me off.  The amount of LYING was rather copious and indeed unending from the time the questioning of the esteemed executive threesome began right through the end. Interestingly the LYING consisted of bothe LIES of commission and omission, ad nauseum, with Mr. Corzines answers invariably being so baffling and disjointed as to derail rather completely the mental processes of his questioner.  My question to myself and now rhetorically is WHY DO WE TOLERATE THIS?  I mean as a society.  Is there something wrong with US??  Collectively are we as corrupt as these two classes seem to be?  That we tolerate this time and time again?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 21:38 | 1976873 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

"....and even admire clever liars."

 

You mean by that elected officials and lawyers, right?

 

Remember Clinton facing the TV camera and repeating that he never had sex with Monica....that is provided one's definition of sex does not include BJ's in the offal office....

 

Or, perhaps the WMD's not found might be considered a lie? Or the Gulf of Tonkin incident? Or maybe even The Main?

 

We have a long history of being lied to by our elected officials. Personally I do not think much has changed, but now we have the internet where the truth can be posted for all to see. Before we were totally at the mercy of the press.

 

 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 21:51 | 1976935 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

"WHY DO WE TOLERATE THIS?"

I often have wondered about this question. About the only answer I can come up with is our whole culture, at most every level have become corrupt and filled with lies.

A good basis for this culture of corruption comes from the idea of the "carrot on the stick" coupled with the idea that people don't want to reel in the corruption just in case they get lucky and advance high enough on the ladder to then participate in the corruption themselves. When this happens, they don't want anyone stopping them from defecating all over everyone below them while raking in the dough. After all, they were just doing what everyone else was doing.

This culture of corruption has been building for some time and it is based heavily on hierarchy and authority from the top. It's kind of like the Lawful Evil alignment in Dungeons & Dragons, which seems to be the cultural view of many of the more stupid, selfish and conservative elements of the Republican Party (not that Democrat zombies are much better).

This culture of corruption have infused every level of our society and it is one reason I believe this system cannot be fixed. JMHO of course.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 21:32 | 1976850 PSEUDOLOGOI
PSEUDOLOGOI's picture

Tyler,

 

this is for you:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/45659547

 

there have been many many posts on ZH that pretty much predicted this... Enjoy!

 

Oh, and I'm completely shocked, just SHOCKED that home sales were double counted... No one could have predicted this... noone!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 22:18 | 1977026 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Double counting to fool the public, and fool Agents into staying in the business.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 14:29 | 1979603 Guinny_Ire
Guinny_Ire's picture

Anyone know if there's a replay of this? Nothing on DoubleLine's page.

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 10:52 | 1991327 ThrivingAdmistC...
ThrivingAdmistCollapse's picture

Back in 2007, prices were overstated in some sectors by 40% or more.  That is the recipe for economic collapse, of course they needed to move their and then.  But I think the consequences of that action might lead to greater economic pain.

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 20:54 | 1992507 yxj55
yxj55's picture

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