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Headline Durable Goods Beats, Core Ex-Transports And Capital Goods Shipments Miss
There is a little for everyone in the latest BWB (Baffle with BS) data point - durable goods. The headline number printed at +1.1%, on expectations of a 0.5% rise, up from a downwardly revised -0.2% (from 0.2%). So a beat even as the baseline was cut. However, when stripping out the extremely volatile transports number, the result was very different and at +0.4%, it was a miss of expectations of 0.7%, although still up from the April -0.6%. Finally, actual Capital Goods shipments excluding non-defense rose 1.6% on expectations of a 1.9% increase. In other words: a beat when including volatile fluff, a miss on the core. The inventory/shipments ratio slipped to 1.63, lowest reading since Dec. 2011; may “imply weaker times ahead,” says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone. Is this good enough for the Fed to push on with the NEW QE: it is unclear. Which is why next Friday's NFP will once again be watched by everyo8ne and be the latest "most important payrolls number ever."
More:
New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $2.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $217.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 0.2 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent.
Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $1.7 billion or 2.7 percent to $63.1 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which increased $0.4 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up five of the last six months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $224.1 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent April increase.
Transportation equipment, also up five of the last six months, had the largest increase, $1.0 billion or 1.6 percent to $65.1 billion. This followed a 3.5 percent April increase.
Inventories at new all time high:
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in May, up twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.5 percent to $365.8 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.3 percent April increase.
Transportation equipment, also up twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine months, had the largest increase, $1.5 billion or 1.4 percent to $108.2 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis.
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That yearly number is looking quite ominous. http://bloomberg.econoday.com/showimage.asp?imageid=22756
Will we bounce off of 0% again as Ben now has some cash burning a hole in his pocket?
I just did some proprietary research regarding business loans and M2 money supply. My article is below; the back half of it focuses on said research:
njbdeflator.blogspot.com/2012/06/decoupling-musings-et-al.html
Thank You
Well this should help with the GDP (Government Domestic Product).
Rally time
DG beats? That must mean ES - 100.
PM investors stuck in fudge-packing hell again.
New lows $1,563, bulls need to seize the moment now.
Oil making a nice move higher for once.
This is Robo-Cosell, with your market update....I sold my gold at $900's, so I hate it, also, I like higher oil. This was Robo-Cosell, thank you for listening to my utterly worthless market opinions.
So if one subscribes to buy low, sell high; you're buying gold now right? Oh wait, you buy high and sell low.
another "most important jobs number ever" next week?? Yawwwnnnnn, back to bed
Whats with the delusion that the Fed is desperate to unleash 'QE-NEW' but is blocked somehow by mysterious forces but some other 'data point' next week might perhaps allow it if its just bad enough by a .01% swing or whatnot? Bunch of BS is all it is.
May I propose a minor upgrade for our times from "Bunch of BS is all it is." to a "Bunch of BLS is all it is"
consumer credit growth was up nearly 5% y/o/y in the latest monthly reading... this is all credit driven growth. Wage growth is trending down fast and may well go negative in nonimal terms soon.
Deflation is a coming.
Hey, at least capital goods orders were positive. Too bad on the mortgage side both purchase appliocations and refi applcations are down. Nice recovery.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/27/mortgage-purchase-and-refinancing-applications-wane-while-durable-goods-orders-increase/
Assume every data point from BLS is either fraudulent or statistical noise, you won't trust it and you'll never be surprised or disappointed.