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Headline Retail Sales Miss For Third Month In A Row, First Threepeat Miss Since July 2008

Tyler Durden's picture





 

And so the great American retail recovery continues being delayed following the third consecutive miss in headline retail sales in a row, despite what was ridiculous and erroneously touted as a record spending season. Well here come the 'product returns' as retailer margins shrink further into negative territory. Today's advance retail sales number came at 0.4% on expectations of a 0.8% increase, from a downward revised 0.0% (0.1% previously), which makes a mockery of both the car sales numbers in December which were the weakest link in today's retail sales, and of surging consumer credit as it proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that US consumers are now using credit cards for the most basic of staples, forget discretionary purchases! And while the number below the headlines was modestly better with ex autos and gas coming at 0.6% on expectations of 0.5%, the prior revision took December to a decline -0.2% from a previously unchanged number. In other words, expect today's ex cars and gas number to be revised to a miss next month as as the Census Bureau learns some key number fudging lessons from the BLS. Yet here is the punchline: there have not been three consecutive retail sales misses since... drumroll please... July 2008. And we all know what happened in the months following. For those who don't, here it is.

Source: Census

 


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Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:49 | Link to Comment dcb
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bullish!!!!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment rosex229
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but, but, but... the economy is zooming forward!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment JohnnyBriefcase
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[puts on Wile E. Coyote suit]

 

Lets do this!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

not for you it isn't.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment midtowng
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The miss won't be reported. Only the positive number.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

fuck yeah it is! just buy some more AMZN!!!

or aapl!!

lol.....

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment 4realmoney
Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:49 | Link to Comment ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Nothing big happened in July 2008

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment AU5K
AU5K's picture

baked in.  plus if consumers are not spending, it just means they have more money to buy stocks.  wildly bullish !

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

MDB is that you?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment AU5K
AU5K's picture

your sarcasm detector is out of batteries.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thats gotta be true....Wall St salivating over the broke consumer, how many food stamps does it take to buy an Apple share? 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment Strut
Strut's picture

Let’s see, avg. Food stamp benefit in the us is $125/mo, cash equiv = 30-50% so ~$37-65/mo. 8 to 13 months worth of food stamps will get you one share of AAPL. A bargain!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
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Yeah they're probably all triple long RSI as we speak... & as soon as they frontrun Lloyd in topticking it, they'll bring GS to its knees and celebrate by going out & buying new yoga outfits...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment CreativeDestructor
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Rally rally rally rally

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment CreativeDestructor
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Toga toga toga toga

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment tinsmith
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Tora Tora Tora

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
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Lulu Lulu Lulu

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
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Robo Robo Robo

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment slaughterer
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Apple, Apple. Apple...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

THIS JUST IN! "Due to a bad earngings report from Lulu lemon...a company most Americans think is a food btw...the United States has decided to attack North Korea. BACK TO YOU AT HQ!"

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
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Bueller?  Bueller?  Bueller?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
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Tyler Tyler Tyler

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Marcia!  Marcia!  Marcia!

(ok, that's a bit far down the rabbit hole...couldn't help it)  :D

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

No no, not at all. I always thought she was hot.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

until Jan got her braces off...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

C'mon guys, how about Peggy Bundy!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment Clam McCain
Clam McCain's picture

still bullish bitchez

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Well, ES, in a rare show of sanity, does not like the retail numbers, and it shouldn't.  

Short AMZN to death today.  

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
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Hope and change on propaganda, or is that Prozac?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Michael Kors seems to be hanging in there.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Importing YoY inflation of 7.1%

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gotta be great news....futures recovering into normal 'no matter what, green' state for euphoric George Orwell open.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I give the correction 5 or 6 minutes today.  

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Surging equities, primarily in the retail sector driving the S & P 500 to new 3-year highs.

 

XRT sitting at record highs right now.

And on top of that, "King Dollar" is also driving U.S. Equities to new highs when priced in foreign currencies.

Basically, we have a complete nightmare for:

- Peter Schiff

- Jim Willie CB

- James Turk

- General Jim

New highs in SPY priced in Euros and British Pounds

http://www.wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=94644&post=343586

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
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I can't speak for the rest of those names but you obviously do not follow Schiff.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
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OMG...I cant WAIT till whatever morning this Rube Goldberg contraption flies into a million pieces and youre never heard from again.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
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i find pSchiff kinda creepy, politically

i don't thing we'd be friends

the other guys, i might get along with better

i would like to meet jimWillie someday;  just to shake his hand and tell him how much i have appreciated his incredible body of work over the years

guy's got a punch, too!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I hear you on that one. He does not lack confidence and people don't tend to like that. Sometimes he does not let his guests speak and that is annoying. He is also an unabashed salesman. But his general thesis is hard to argue with.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
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willie's posts should appear in ZH. He is the top gold bug with insights like no one else.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

You can add my name to the complete nightmare list....Fucking SPY

Downgrades/riots/Japanese Monetary Bukake, another up day.

Unbelievable

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment slaughterer
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You forgot Bob Janjuah and that old dude that appeared on Bloomberg two weeks ago calling a top.  

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
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driving the S & P 500 to new 3-year highs.

 

 

The S&P 500 priced in gold is flirting with its March 2009 lows.  It's down a healthy 7% this year already...worse priced in silver.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

as the chart shows the retailers were the first to come out of the collapse. which was surprising to me because that normally pre-sages a broad based market rally...which indeed did occur. since the retail space is nothing but "a history of price wars" this year will be a great test of competitiveness while still remaining profitable/in business for not just retailers but in my view the economy as a whole.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Seize Mars
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@RobotTrader

Well, no, pSchiff has always discussed the meaning of a higher s&p as evidence of inflation. He has always said to look at it in gold units. If you do that, you see that the stock market continues to be a really, really bad investment.

There is really no secret here. There is no economic growth, just inflation that looks like growth, but it's illusory.

Read a book, man!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It was a good number ex aircraft but less so when you back out spaceship flex capacitor's. But you have to account for the seasonality of the petrified sap that has encased the mosquito's holding dino dna which will create dino theme parks and will lead to the tourism boom. So it's hard to take the numbers at face value is I guess what I am saying.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment tinsmith
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Cramer says dinosaur theme parks are gonna be big this summer. He's gonna have the CFO on tonight.......

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
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I'm surprised at the Retail Sales miss....I figured I would have put it well into the green myself by buying a new Meucci pool cue last month!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

happy valentimes day, BiCheZ!

SD-1, here is your new electric collar!

you can never run away, no matter how old and crazy you get, and, if you jump up on the couch, you get tasered!

loveU!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Dan Conway
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Buy more AAPL? 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
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What's the happy median ?  If bernank only prints say $500 billion and gas only goes up a dollar couldn't that produce a .03% increase in GDP ? Or should he risk printing a trillion and letting gasoline go to $6 and manage a .05 % increase in GDP ?  There has to be a happy median where just the right dose of fiat creates enough growth to sustain the ponzi regardless of fuel prices no ?

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gotta be some magical figure out there....let's consult the Oracles.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment ceilidh_trail
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Sorry, I'm busy.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment JohnnyBriefcase
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I'm finding this difficult to masturbate to.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
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try turning the Wile E. Coyote suit inside-out

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment JohnnyBriefcase
JohnnyBriefcase's picture

Nope, still not working.

Where did I put that picture of Lagarde...

 

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 18:22 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

sounds wonderfull to me. just a sort of bad number. one number does not a trend make, unless it is somewhat good then it solidifies master obama's re coronation as president 4 life.

this is what you wanted...this is what you get. bad life.

now i can get that baloney sammich on good terms

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Late winter of winning

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I know this is anecdotal , but when I walk into Walmart other than food, a lot of their shelves are bare. The first time I saw it I thought it was odd but I see it all the time. They aren't even bothering to stock them. Another thing I've noticed is that I never have to wait in line. There just aren't any shoppers.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
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I wouldnt know, I dont go to Walmart but it doesnt surprise me to hear.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
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You probably went in there the day that the WIC cards were refilled

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

"Everything is fine"...seasonally adjusted...looking forward....corrected for inflation...."just fine"

I went to three department stores this weekend. The women were only looking at stuff on the 80% discounted racks.....

Moral:

Only buy "stuff" discounted 80% or more...clothes...houses....you name it.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

or better yet escape the tax munching ponzi and only buy at flea markets, thrift shops, yardsales  and craigslist or as much as is possible.

Start getting small and humble bitches!

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

It is all coming together. Just takes time. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

I wonder what retail sales would have been without the year end massive chargebacks for extra inventory? Like last year and every other year, when Under Armorand others had to buy back millions worth of unsold inventory. That chargeback is then booked as income for the retailer. Even though a sale never existed. That is because the vendor is charged 100% of wholesale for the chargeback, but during the year up to 6.5% over wholesale was deducted for advertising allowance, defective product, etc. 6.5% the vendor will never get back, nor was ever really used for anything the retailer promised. A great way to serve up the books extra crispy.

Then after the retailer's fiscal year that same inventory is rebought by the retailer helping to show good sales to start the year for the product vendor, and juicing their respective stock. Showing hundreds of millions in "sales" without a product ever being sold to a consumer. Along with the automatic 20% discount on merchandise ordered for new stores, giving on average 80% margin, the retailer uses a different division of the corporation to sell the product to its own stores at 60%. Booking a 20% immediate "profit" before the product even goes to a store. Thus making retail sales look great, therefore juicing the retailer's stock.

MMMM Retail Ponzi.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

I read this twice.  I see

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment tiwimon
tiwimon's picture

Its TRANSITORY....

/times 3

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

SPEED, the movie is the ecomony....we are in the bus and HAVE to make 20B a month in new money or we explode....

 

no different....how long do we have gas to keep the bus running???

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

But companies are restocking shelves and expecting sales, guys!

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/14/10406323-companies-restock-shelves-expecting-sales?ocid=twitter

The amount of hubris, nevermind hopium, amongst those in the media really amazes me sometimes.  I want things to be better, but they are not.  They are just not (for those who live in the "real" economy)! 

And for those to think that they are, just because there's a SLIGHT improvement in the economy, is either ignorant, stupid, or irresponsible.  It's like losing your shit on the sidelines after scoring a touchdown, despite being down 42-14 in the 4th quarter. 

Remember, the economy had a nice uptick before the '07-'09 crashes as well.

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

The clouds on the horizon are slowly darkening.

The wind has freshened and starting to get stronger.

The calm before this coming storm has now passed.

If not prepared by now, then time is very short indeed!

The ferrocity with which it hits will shock. Many will perish.

Many more will find harsh and cruel conditions. Outlook? Dismal.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

CNBC actually also reported a rise in December business inventories. Uh oh. Time for layoffs again.

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