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Headline Retail Sales Miss For Third Month In A Row, First Threepeat Miss Since July 2008
And so the great American retail recovery continues being delayed following the third consecutive miss in headline retail sales in a row, despite what was ridiculous and erroneously touted as a record spending season. Well here come the 'product returns' as retailer margins shrink further into negative territory. Today's advance retail sales number came at 0.4% on expectations of a 0.8% increase, from a downward revised 0.0% (0.1% previously), which makes a mockery of both the car sales numbers in December which were the weakest link in today's retail sales, and of surging consumer credit as it proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that US consumers are now using credit cards for the most basic of staples, forget discretionary purchases! And while the number below the headlines was modestly better with ex autos and gas coming at 0.6% on expectations of 0.5%, the prior revision took December to a decline -0.2% from a previously unchanged number. In other words, expect today's ex cars and gas number to be revised to a miss next month as as the Census Bureau learns some key number fudging lessons from the BLS. Yet here is the punchline: there have not been three consecutive retail sales misses since... drumroll please... July 2008. And we all know what happened in the months following. For those who don't, here it is.
Source: Census
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bullish!!!!
but, but, but... the economy is zooming forward!
[puts on Wile E. Coyote suit]
Lets do this!
not for you it isn't.
The miss won't be reported. Only the positive number.
fuck yeah it is! just buy some more AMZN!!!
or aapl!!
lol.....
Gerald Celente talks about the economic situation on Jeff Rense
http://djia.tv/gerald-celente/gerald-celente-jeff-rense-09-feb-2012/
Nothing big happened in July 2008
baked in. plus if consumers are not spending, it just means they have more money to buy stocks. wildly bullish !
MDB is that you?
your sarcasm detector is out of batteries.
Thats gotta be true....Wall St salivating over the broke consumer, how many food stamps does it take to buy an Apple share?
Let’s see, avg. Food stamp benefit in the us is $125/mo, cash equiv = 30-50% so ~$37-65/mo. 8 to 13 months worth of food stamps will get you one share of AAPL. A bargain!
I suppose that's the currency markets for you: in China it costs you a kidney for an Ipad:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13639934
No... I jest. US medical companies are already facilitating a more equal pattern:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2065508/Mexican-blood-smugglers-...
http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/11/23/8975751-mexicans-cross-us-b...
http://www.kvue.com/news/139064774.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IojqOMWTgv8
Yeah they're probably all triple long RSI as we speak... & as soon as they frontrun Lloyd in topticking it, they'll bring GS to its knees and celebrate by going out & buying new yoga outfits...
Rally rally rally rally
Toga toga toga toga
Tora Tora Tora
Lulu Lulu Lulu
Robo Robo Robo
Apple, Apple. Apple...
THIS JUST IN! "Due to a bad earngings report from Lulu lemon...a company most Americans think is a food btw...the United States has decided to attack North Korea. BACK TO YOU AT HQ!"
Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?
Tyler Tyler Tyler
Marcia! Marcia! Marcia!
(ok, that's a bit far down the rabbit hole...couldn't help it) :D
No no, not at all. I always thought she was hot.
until Jan got her braces off...
C'mon guys, how about Peggy Bundy!
still bullish bitchez
Well, ES, in a rare show of sanity, does not like the retail numbers, and it shouldn't.
Short AMZN to death today.
Hope and change on propaganda, or is that Prozac?
Michael Kors seems to be hanging in there.
Importing YoY inflation of 7.1%
"Missed it by > that < much." - Maxwell Smart
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPwrodxghrw
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_Smart
Gotta be great news....futures recovering into normal 'no matter what, green' state for euphoric George Orwell open.
I give the correction 5 or 6 minutes today.
Surging equities, primarily in the retail sector driving the S & P 500 to new 3-year highs.
XRT sitting at record highs right now.
And on top of that, "King Dollar" is also driving U.S. Equities to new highs when priced in foreign currencies.
Basically, we have a complete nightmare for:
- Peter Schiff
- Jim Willie CB
- James Turk
- General Jim
New highs in SPY priced in Euros and British Pounds
http://www.wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=94644&post=343586
I can't speak for the rest of those names but you obviously do not follow Schiff.
OMG...I cant WAIT till whatever morning this Rube Goldberg contraption flies into a million pieces and youre never heard from again.
i find pSchiff kinda creepy, politically
i don't thing we'd be friends
the other guys, i might get along with better
i would like to meet jimWillie someday; just to shake his hand and tell him how much i have appreciated his incredible body of work over the years
guy's got a punch, too!
I hear you on that one. He does not lack confidence and people don't tend to like that. Sometimes he does not let his guests speak and that is annoying. He is also an unabashed salesman. But his general thesis is hard to argue with.
willie's posts should appear in ZH. He is the top gold bug with insights like no one else.
You can add my name to the complete nightmare list....Fucking SPY
Downgrades/riots/Japanese Monetary Bukake, another up day.
Unbelievable
You forgot Bob Janjuah and that old dude that appeared on Bloomberg two weeks ago calling a top.
driving the S & P 500 to new 3-year highs.
The S&P 500 priced in gold is flirting with its March 2009 lows. It's down a healthy 7% this year already...worse priced in silver.
as the chart shows the retailers were the first to come out of the collapse. which was surprising to me because that normally pre-sages a broad based market rally...which indeed did occur. since the retail space is nothing but "a history of price wars" this year will be a great test of competitiveness while still remaining profitable/in business for not just retailers but in my view the economy as a whole.
@RobotTrader
Well, no, pSchiff has always discussed the meaning of a higher s&p as evidence of inflation. He has always said to look at it in gold units. If you do that, you see that the stock market continues to be a really, really bad investment.
There is really no secret here. There is no economic growth, just inflation that looks like growth, but it's illusory.
Read a book, man!
It was a good number ex aircraft but less so when you back out spaceship flex capacitor's. But you have to account for the seasonality of the petrified sap that has encased the mosquito's holding dino dna which will create dino theme parks and will lead to the tourism boom. So it's hard to take the numbers at face value is I guess what I am saying.
Cramer says dinosaur theme parks are gonna be big this summer. He's gonna have the CFO on tonight.......
I'm surprised at the Retail Sales miss....I figured I would have put it well into the green myself by buying a new Meucci pool cue last month!
happy valentimes day, BiCheZ!
SD-1, here is your new electric collar!
you can never run away, no matter how old and crazy you get, and, if you jump up on the couch, you get tasered!
loveU!
Buy more AAPL?
What's the happy median ? If bernank only prints say $500 billion and gas only goes up a dollar couldn't that produce a .03% increase in GDP ? Or should he risk printing a trillion and letting gasoline go to $6 and manage a .05 % increase in GDP ? There has to be a happy median where just the right dose of fiat creates enough growth to sustain the ponzi regardless of fuel prices no ?
Gotta be some magical figure out there....let's consult the Oracles.
Sorry, I'm busy.
I'm finding this difficult to masturbate to.
try turning the Wile E. Coyote suit inside-out
Nope, still not working.
Where did I put that picture of Lagarde...
You can thank me later...
sounds wonderfull to me. just a sort of bad number. one number does not a trend make, unless it is somewhat good then it solidifies master obama's re coronation as president 4 life.
this is what you wanted...this is what you get. bad life.
now i can get that baloney sammich on good terms
Late winter of winning
I know this is anecdotal , but when I walk into Walmart other than food, a lot of their shelves are bare. The first time I saw it I thought it was odd but I see it all the time. They aren't even bothering to stock them. Another thing I've noticed is that I never have to wait in line. There just aren't any shoppers.
I wouldnt know, I dont go to Walmart but it doesnt surprise me to hear.
You probably went in there the day that the WIC cards were refilled
"Everything is fine"...seasonally adjusted...looking forward....corrected for inflation...."just fine"
I went to three department stores this weekend. The women were only looking at stuff on the 80% discounted racks.....
Moral:
Only buy "stuff" discounted 80% or more...clothes...houses....you name it.
or better yet escape the tax munching ponzi and only buy at flea markets, thrift shops, yardsales and craigslist or as much as is possible.
Start getting small and humble bitches!
It is all coming together. Just takes time.
I wonder what retail sales would have been without the year end massive chargebacks for extra inventory? Like last year and every other year, when Under Armorand others had to buy back millions worth of unsold inventory. That chargeback is then booked as income for the retailer. Even though a sale never existed. That is because the vendor is charged 100% of wholesale for the chargeback, but during the year up to 6.5% over wholesale was deducted for advertising allowance, defective product, etc. 6.5% the vendor will never get back, nor was ever really used for anything the retailer promised. A great way to serve up the books extra crispy.
Then after the retailer's fiscal year that same inventory is rebought by the retailer helping to show good sales to start the year for the product vendor, and juicing their respective stock. Showing hundreds of millions in "sales" without a product ever being sold to a consumer. Along with the automatic 20% discount on merchandise ordered for new stores, giving on average 80% margin, the retailer uses a different division of the corporation to sell the product to its own stores at 60%. Booking a 20% immediate "profit" before the product even goes to a store. Thus making retail sales look great, therefore juicing the retailer's stock.
MMMM Retail Ponzi.
I read this twice. I see
Its TRANSITORY....
/times 3
SPEED, the movie is the ecomony....we are in the bus and HAVE to make 20B a month in new money or we explode....
no different....how long do we have gas to keep the bus running???
But companies are restocking shelves and expecting sales, guys!
http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/14/10406323-companies-restock-shelves-expecting-sales?ocid=twitter
The amount of hubris, nevermind hopium, amongst those in the media really amazes me sometimes. I want things to be better, but they are not. They are just not (for those who live in the "real" economy)!
And for those to think that they are, just because there's a SLIGHT improvement in the economy, is either ignorant, stupid, or irresponsible. It's like losing your shit on the sidelines after scoring a touchdown, despite being down 42-14 in the 4th quarter.
Remember, the economy had a nice uptick before the '07-'09 crashes as well.
The clouds on the horizon are slowly darkening.
The wind has freshened and starting to get stronger.
The calm before this coming storm has now passed.
If not prepared by now, then time is very short indeed!
The ferrocity with which it hits will shock. Many will perish.
Many more will find harsh and cruel conditions. Outlook? Dismal.
CNBC actually also reported a rise in December business inventories. Uh oh. Time for layoffs again.