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Here Are The Next Steps In The Escalating Middle East

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While everyone is focusing on what empty words and promises will come out of Europe this week which continues to valiantly, yet with utter futility, fight simple math, our friends at Religare Research remind us that there is a whole another theater of operations (pardon the phrase) that many are so far forgetting about located in the middle east which is far closer to what at the end of the day really matters: oil. As Emad Mostaque notes: 'While North Africa is busily transitioning to a set of neo-Islamist, GCC-sponsored Sunni democracies (we are positive on this trend), Shia groups in the Middle East have started to stir. In this monthly we focus on some of the key elements of the Shia tradition that may have a significant impact on global markets in the near future." Below are the key takeaways.

  • Potential flashpoint: Tensions could be inflamed on December 6th (Ashura) with Saudi Arabia meriting particular attention. This could lead to a sharp spike in oil. We are also highly cautious on Iraq, where violence could easily spark a civil war
  • Syrian endgame: As predicted earlier this year, December looks to be the crunch point for Syria. Elections or power transfer remain the likeliest outcomes.
  • Bahrain beginning: The arrest of five individuals plotting to blow up various targets in Bahrain last week including the Saudi-Bahraini causeway is a harbinger  of potentially more terrorism to come. The Shia majority is nursing its wounds and without proper dialogue will start to lash out.
  • Iran & bombs: Warnings of an attack on Iran have been circulating for 30 years. It's different this time and we see the probability of an attack rising  sharply as we head into 2012 (probability 40% on a 12 month view from 0% last year). The only solution to this mess is dialogue, which has now effectively  been taken off the table. We see January/February as the point of peak probability for military action.

Full note (pdf):

 

 

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Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:47 | 1944544 ZippyBananaPants
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TZA Bitchez

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:58 | 1944597 CPL
CPL's picture

Kidding me, I read this as all bullish.

 

CNN is happy as fuck about the whole thing, CNBC same, CBC same. 

 

Bullish.  Remember, it doesn't have to make any sense, just sound happy.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:15 | 1944648 NuckingFuts
NuckingFuts's picture

And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars: See that ye not be troubled: for all these things must come to pass, Bitchez!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:57 | 1944888 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Damn it, Braack! Get that teleprompter warmed up and give them what for! That will show them who's in charge. Uppity Arabs!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:02 | 1944897 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Don't bother him.  He is swimming with the fishes.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:57 | 1945170 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Theocratic democracies bitchez!!!

Wow...who didn't see this one coming ;-)

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:14 | 1945203 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

 

Egypt will be so cool with Sharia Law.

Those with smelly fingers from Lara Logans ringpiece will have them chopped off.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:24 | 1945229 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Mmm...unless its a mullah. The Golden Rule and all.

We tried to warn the babes...I guess we can scratch off Alexandria from the must see list for a decade or so.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 21:56 | 1945449 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Whoever has the gold makes the rules you say?

Man they only just cleaned up Luxor after the last machine gun murder of tourists...

And i apologise my foul comment above - it wasn't me man - it was my fucked up brother, EVILDICK.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:10 | 1944917 MarcusLCrassus
MarcusLCrassus's picture

Its beginning to look like congress is viewing a war with Iran as a jobs program, ala WWII. 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:24 | 1944952 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

If I counted how many times I heard that the answer to solve unemployment was a new war I would have needed a clicker.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 21:28 | 1945376 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Mr.LH,
Get one today from Wally-mart before they run out.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 00:44 | 1945789 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They want this in order to blame them for the economy tanking and not the bankers and the govt. officials who allowed it.  But I think they are playing with fire.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:31 | 1944966 1000pips
1000pips's picture

The sky is failing ! Euro/USD to $1.40 in a week.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:02 | 1945180 traknologist
traknologist's picture

Nahhh not TZA...  More like ERX!

 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 22:26 | 1945548 Teddy Turner
Teddy Turner's picture

Maybe this is why the middle east is so messed up.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUsKrulPnTE&feature=channel_video_title

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:47 | 1944547 Ragnar24
Ragnar24's picture

Read: Century of War by Engdahl

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:18 | 1944815 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

How about instead of reading, reacting.

"Never let a potential flashpoint go to waste" says the good Chicago major.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:55 | 1945162 Michael
Michael's picture

WW3? Watch China set off a few kinetic energy bombs in satellite space rendering it useless for the next 20 years.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/satellites/4218443

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon

 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:37 | 1945259 Robert Neville
Robert Neville's picture

Thank you Al Gore.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 21:32 | 1945381 old naughty
old naughty's picture

but, but, but...you kine me I kine you...you nuke me, I nuke you...

One big happy brotherhood, no?

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:01 | 1945178 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"Never let a potential flashpoint go to waste" says the good Chicago major."

More like a majorette.

He was into ballet afterall...not that theres anything inherently wrong with a guy running around in a tutu...ROTFL!!!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:50 | 1944559 chet
chet's picture

Then let the Sunni and Shia fight it out.  Why do we have to stand in the middle of everything?  The winners will be happy to take our money for their oil.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:09 | 1944618 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Iran controls most of Iraq, atleast the oil producing regions, except Kurdistan, thanks to Bush's War.  Also, Pakistan is 10-15% Shia, is a nuclear power, and hostile to the US.

I can envision a civil war in Pakistan, if Iran is bombed, between rogue  fundamental ISI, and the military elite, funded by Congress.

 The drums of war are beating once again.  And all nations will be pulled into its percussion.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:10 | 1944633 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Also, Pakistan is 10-15% Shia, is a nuclear power, and hostile to the US.'

Watch that Pakistan border with Afghanistan become another storyline...

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:13 | 1944923 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

I'm telling you. Smart Americans will stay the fuck away from this tinderbox.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:47 | 1945001 knukles
knukles's picture

Please define "smart"

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:20 | 1945084 solgundy
solgundy's picture

not Obumma...the dumbest person in any room he walks into

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:14 | 1945205 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Please define "smart"

Those who stay away.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 21:39 | 1945398 old naughty
old naughty's picture

but obumma wants a second term, with/without the election win...so he is not staying away... Oh I get it, not smart.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:02 | 1945181 David449420
David449420's picture

And how do you suggest they do that?  They (the so-called Smart Americans) do not have much, if any choice in that matter.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:08 | 1944628 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

We don't stand in the middle. We stand off in the shadows and provide support to each side in order to promote our "let's you and him fight" policy.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:08 | 1944629 sosoome
sosoome's picture

Yep. They were doing a good job of it too, until we started "spreading democracy".

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:11 | 1944638 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

I would have thought so.

Who the hell cares what the Saudis to amongst themselves.

Or the Iranians.

Or the Libyans.

Or the Iraqis.

 

If they want to sell oil they will sell oil.

1. What in the name of God is "Nation Building"

2. Why does the "West" think that exporting "democracy" is a good idea.

 

It's all crap really.

 

 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:48 | 1945007 knukles
knukles's picture

Having offshored all else productive, meaningful and of worth, the West has naught left to export except "democracy".

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 21:54 | 1945438 Wannabee
Wannabee's picture

@Knukles,

Having offshored all else productive, meaningful and of worth, the West has naught left to export except "democracy".

You're getting an attaboy for quote of the day!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:01 | 1945176 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

Couldn't agree more. One of GWB's stupid statements was that democratic goverments don't attack their neighbors. Just because these backward S.O.B's vote in no way changes their culture or prejudices. (or ours for that matter)Like most things our founding fathers had it right. They left the old world behind to escape this crap.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:12 | 1945202 knukles
knukles's picture

Well fuck me. 
Dem-O-cratic gubamins don' hat-ack their nay-burs.
GWB wuz right!

Sheeeeeeit.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 23:22 | 1945662 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

(Sigh) now we just need to find some Demo-cratic gubmints...I guess Republican Govts ain't gonna cut it...

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 00:02 | 1945731 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

West exported democracy? This is news.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:12 | 1944639 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"The winners will be happy to take our money for their oil."

Of course they will, because it will be engineered as such.  This has been the way of the NWO for 70 fucking years.  Asking for gold in exchange for oil gets a country "liberated".

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:51 | 1944560 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Dire stuff in there. Grim prospects for 2012 and beyond.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:52 | 1944564 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

she is ready !! http://bit.ly/iaF4ys

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:51 | 1944881 Killer the Buzzard
Killer the Buzzard's picture

Which homo junked HedgeAccordingly?

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:17 | 1944936 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Listen. bit.ly has a built in tracking feature so you can see 'who' clickied your linkie.

I didn't junk but I am in solidarity with the junker.

Fuck you spooks!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:57 | 1945025 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

The internet: you're not doing it right.

 

 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:42 | 1944994 CPL
CPL's picture

I did, and your tears are delicious.

 

http://img.anongallery.org/img/7/1/your-tears-are-delicious.jpg

www.lemonparty.org   <--- my new political party.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:01 | 1945028 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Awwwwww! So cute! <tears in eyes at the sentiment>

 

/b/

 

You went and did it, and we all thought you were a nice white(hat) boy.

 

 

 

p.s. Yes, this was ironic. About 9000 years too late.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:03 | 1945039 CPL
CPL's picture

shhhhh, ;-)

 

There are usually three or four decent reactions.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:09 | 1945059 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

If you're claiming to be a WH Agg/def penetrator , you'd know that that /b/ meme is old now. Kinda like those Star War codes when they approach the Death Star in VI. Not sure why you're even attempting at kudos here, other than to shock the 90% non-cracker membership here. Oh noes! Grandpas getting gay sex! We iz sooo shocked! WE doubt your skills now.

 

Far funnier ones lie in wait. And by that I mean the ones where you know their name, school, bank and so on.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 10:15 | 1946321 falak pema
falak pema's picture

lemon tree, lemon tree, sigh; bitter lemons for a hetero, pomegranate lover.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:54 | 1944571 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Action = Reaction

basic physics.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:57 | 1944587 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

The topic is geopolitics. Has nothing to do with Newtonian mechanics.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:09 | 1944627 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Go piss on your neighbors property or steal some of his fruit from one of his trees and let me know how that works out for you.  You are an idiot if you don't think geopolitical actions don't turn into physical responses.  The spice must flow, period.  Now it gets "newtonian", bitches.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:19 | 1944661 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

I can see you're mouthbreather so I'll explain. In military/intelligence terminology, that would be called blowback. See here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blowback_%28intelligence%29

Physical laws have nothing to do with this as you're dealing in human affairs.

I can see by your name you've decided to add 'gravitas' to a lacking intelligence.

 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:10 | 1945198 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

Physical laws have nothing to do with this as you're dealing in human affairs.

I know a handful of fractal specialists and chaos theory adherents who would beg to disagree.

Though maybe instead of going "Newtonian," we should say going "Mandelbrot."

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:20 | 1945083 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Zackly! It's called blowback.. And of course those that creat the wars will never admit they caused them

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:55 | 1944581 mikmid
mikmid's picture

As with all fourth turnings, Kondratiev winters or depressions (take your pick) war has been the result. The morons in power think stealing from others to benefit the oligarchs is a great idea. No consideration is given to the people, who the oligarchs consider as parisites and millions of people will die. PEOPLE OF THE WORLD, STAND UP AND REFUSE TO DO THE BIDDING OF THE ELITES AND SAFE YOURSELF.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:58 | 1944594 Irish66
Irish66's picture

please don't send your children to fight this war

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:59 | 1944600 CPL
CPL's picture

Chief, we are all going into this one whether we like it or not.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:24 | 1944950 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Yea bitchez! If you want that college edujabication for 1/2 off you will kill some muzzies for your masters!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:11 | 1944793 DionysusDevotee
DionysusDevotee's picture

Which side were you referring to?

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:15 | 1945206 nmewn
nmewn's picture

The spontaneously cumbusting in pizza parlors side, I think.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:04 | 1944611 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The spice must flow.  That is all you need to know, now back on that wheel sheep so that TPTB can spill your children's blood so that theirs may continue to rule.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:05 | 1944614 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

our friends at Religare Research remind us that there is a whole another theater of operations

 

That's "a whole nother."

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/a_whole_nother

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:24 | 1944827 Matt
Matt's picture

A whole nother: alternative form: a whole 'nother. 'nother is a contraction of another. So saying "A whole another" is just a step backwards in the etymological evolution of the phrase.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:05 | 1945044 I like bubbles
I like bubbles's picture

that's a hole other topic

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:19 | 1945080 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I can dig it.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 02:09 | 1945859 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Well, it is a deep subject.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:05 | 1944615 Rastadamus
Rastadamus's picture

My children ain't sacrificing themselves in this shit.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:25 | 1944676 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Don't worry, patriots are only selected through the lottery system and as long as you own 1 billion dollars, they're save.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:16 | 1944931 css1971
css1971's picture

You have solar panels and an electric car?

Cos that's what it'll take.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:43 | 1944996 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Have solar but a good saddle horse will due just fine. 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:06 | 1945049 CPL
CPL's picture

Horse will last you 40 years.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:56 | 1945164 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

I adore my horses. But horses have some inherent "issues". Hence the name I use. :-)

 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:43 | 1945274 KickIce
KickIce's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBhlQgvHmQ0

 

wrong animal, right idea.

 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:04 | 1945041 Desert Irish
Desert Irish's picture

They were sending 54 year old national guardsmen to fight in Iraq they were so short numbered. They will be salivating over 18 year old kids....sorry but I don't think you"ll have a choice. They did it before in '69 and they are going to do it again.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:06 | 1945048 I like bubbles
I like bubbles's picture

15 is the new 18, didn't ya hear?

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:24 | 1944674 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I blame it on cars!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:31 | 1944689 css1971
css1971's picture

I blame it on vanity.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:00 | 1944764 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Blame it on Rio.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:38 | 1944855 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

Blame it on the rain. (It was fallin' fallin'.)

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:43 | 1944864 George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

I'm gonna blame it on the Moonlight!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:02 | 1944899 UnderDeGun
UnderDeGun's picture

Blame it on Monday, tomorrow.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:05 | 1945045 CPL
CPL's picture

Just blame it on the boggie.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:13 | 1944925 Roscoe
Roscoe's picture

Blame it on the boogie: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTjcLiZ4nTY 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:29 | 1945104 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Blame it on Cain. (Elvis Costello)

(or Herman).

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:36 | 1944704 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Short-dated WTI calls 20% above spot. Got it. Thanks.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:41 | 1944718 sabra1
sabra1's picture

hey! oldidorks! we're comin' after you, and the ones that get away, God will get you!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:57 | 1944762 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

US has only two interests in the ME. Safely withdrawing the 100,000 from Afghanistan and forcing a peace process between Israel and Palestine. We've got more than enuf oil hear already. There does not exist the political will to fight for pretty much anything in the USA right now anyways nor would I trust the current crop of political pansies to accomplish anything even if they were interested. What a bunch of losers. The Bernanke could buy Greece, Portugal and Ireland...which would be a step in the right direction. Might even get a "three for one discount."

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:14 | 1944924 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

May I suggest an overland withdrawal westward from Afghanistan?  Persian students and the upper middle class were asked by the WSJ in 2002 what they needed.  They answered "US boots on the ground."  Move through, clear out the bully boys, crater the nuclear facilities, proceed to Iraq, and go for some well-deserved R&R.  This is the sensible next six months.  Then wind down and focus on other issues.  The Pakistan logistics blockage provides the perfect excuse for a high-tech Anabasis.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:19 | 1944938 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

You go first. On your own dime.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:29 | 1944962 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

This isn't a video game.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:07 | 1945052 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

It will be a cake walk. They will greet us with flowers. Now that I type this, I seem to recall hearing this before...somewhere.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:05 | 1944771 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Plan B USA : ensure the Oil stays westward ho! Ensure that the MIC sells more and more weapons. Ensure that China loses its grip on RM world wide. (Plan A being 'print to infinity', to save Oligarchical ponzi for a few more years; now jeopardized by the Merkel Euro clique).

Now the pawns are falling in place to control the roll out from Paki to Egypt. Arab spring is now going Al qaeda winter campaign. Watch the MIC rattle its sabres. 

RM grab has to be top on menu, both for Plan A and Plan B. 

Plan B may be necessary to kick start "controlled selective deflation". This is getting complicated, when those who botch up the financial ponzi try and play at master strategists in the war room, can they control the stand-off with Iran/china/russia?We need Peter Sellers to give this one better rendition, more machiavellic dramaturgy than the current sad, sinister lot. 

 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:04 | 1944780 DutchR
DutchR's picture

Holiday season, but for whom?

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:07 | 1944787 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i think the UN should hold a False Flag Contest after christmas, but hopefully none of the entries will interfere w/ the bowl games...

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:38 | 1944849 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

US should GTFO of the Middle East - immediately. If Muslims/Jews want to bomb each other back to the Sand Age then it is fine - let them do it. The more die the more oil for us. We can even make friends with the few survivors...

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:41 | 1944861 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Just like all the financial "crisis": crucial dates, potential triggers and in the end, nothing happens. US has no interest in oil to 250+$$$.

Merry Christmas.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:12 | 1944922 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

XOM/CVX do

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:38 | 1944976 falak pema
falak pema's picture

USA will never understand ME; as they don't understand the dance of the seven veils, nor the city of seven loves, let alone the resolution of the seven enigmas. 

the story of the three Ls : Life, liberty, licence (pursuit of)

As we learn't here on zero hedge, the story of the three Es, : economy, energy, ecology 

now comes the punch line, the seventh veil or seventh tale : D : decadence. 

You need to be Einstein from Zimbabwe, land of future, to figure this out : LED. 

The medium was the message; now its the dance of the seven veils in the valley of seven loves. ME is centre of it all. WHat does the seventh seal of seventh heaven have to teach us? 

Find the medium and discover the message. Its dovetailed to a dot. 

Are you looking with amazement at the meaning of hyper inflated D? 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:46 | 1945000 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Does this mean there won't be any presents?

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:57 | 1945027 falak pema
falak pema's picture

there will always be xmas, but will it be white? Global warming will hit at least +3° celsius or even +4° in coming double decade. Not much chance for snow in Bethlehem.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:16 | 1945072 spdrdr
spdrdr's picture

 

 

Global warming is the poster-child of the globalist corporate kleptocracy. 

I am continually mystified how many otherwise intelligent people have fallen for this fantasy.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:28 | 1945234 jomama
jomama's picture

there is no denying the global climate is changing.  the remaining debate is to what extent that humans have influenced this change.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 07:10 | 1946079 falak pema
falak pema's picture

you don't read the facts do you? They are being presented at Durban and they are not GOOD!

But you believe in US fiction; the type that brings down civilizations.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 07:41 | 1946105 Yousif
Yousif's picture

Rather than lecturing us about how often we need to eat meat:

Title:

Lord Stern: 'People should give up eating meat to halt climate change'

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/6442164/Lord-...

Why don't you lecture NATO about their carbon footprint.  I wonder what the carbon footprint of all those air sorties, indiscriminant "humanatarian bombing" and their new "logistics challenge of our generation"?  I mean where are these climate change proponents when they are faced with the "carbon footprint catastrophe of our generation"?

What's that, did I hear that correctly ... you mean I have to stop eating meat so NATO can bomb anyone into oblivion?  I mean, clearly, that would offset their carbon footprint.  NATO has been lectured well by the banks, they create carbon debt out of thin air and we have to pay it back, I wonder how they'll make us pay interest on their carbon footprint?

Is war more important than climate?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 07:54 | 1946119 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Where have I written anything about meat? Except the feminine variety to be tasted sensually, I do admit, but not cannibalistically. WHy is your rant so inconsequential as to mix oranges with apples. You will now need salad dressing. And don't buy it out of a bottle, make it yourself. It requires more artisanal  elbow work but its worth it. Think ecologic even when you eat apples and oranges mixed up.A touch of lemon, salt and pepper and you're away.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 08:24 | 1946142 Yousif
Yousif's picture

"WHy [sic] is your rant so inconsequential as to mix oranges with apples."

This statement is completely irrelevant.  Oranges and apples have not been mixed, that said, I recommend trying this recipe for apple-orange smoothie:

http://recipes.sparkpeople.com/recipe-detail.asp?recipe=98383

Please offset the blender's carbon footprint if you can.

In your attempt to patronise my response, which you have referred to as a "rant", you have shot yourself in the foot, twice actually.

  1. You have completely missed the point, which is that the "sky is falling" AGW proponents focus on the more irrelevant aspects of carbon footprint offseting (advising people to eat less meat for example) while the elephant in the room (NATO) bombs people into oblivion.  Thank you for the salad recipe, I will definitely try it, but tell me, how does that offset the carbon footprint of military jets?
  2. You have also corroborated my opinion that you are not here to "debate", you are here to "sell".

I should mention that I have access to hardware that enables me to check the numerical simulations / data that is published by both camps.  All theories are still on the table for me.  I don't understand how us watching our carbon footprint is going to help in any way, shape or form and you're not helping, if anything, the "sky is falling" AGW proponents are making things worse.

To date, no camp has produced any proof beyond reasonable doubt that supports or opposes AGW.

Is war more important than climate?

 

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 10:09 | 1946163 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I have nothing to sell on global warming issues, I only mentioned in the course of this thread that the indications are that we are heading towards overall temperature rise of 3° to 4°. That's all I said, and these are the conclusions presented by the experts at Durban. And such global temperature rise is commonly accepted as having horrendous implications for world environment in this century.

Either you believe them like I do as I don't see why these guys should lie as they do have scientfic training and are NOT corporate shills working for energy producer/consumer industries like Exxon or mining companies.

SO there. That is all I have to say on this. BTW : the most interesting post of the interplay between energy, ecology and economy is the Chris Martenson thread presented on ZH; I recommend it.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 10:24 | 1946350 Yousif
Yousif's picture

"I have nothing to sell on global warming issues"

then

"Either you believe them like I do as I don't see why these guys should lie as they do have scientfic training and are NOT corporate shills working for energy producer/consumer industries like Exxon or mining companies."

Contradiction.  Those two statements are incompatible.  You cannot claim that you are not "selling" then go ahead and slander a scientific community just because they don't believe what you believe.

There are multiple contradictions in your second paragraph:

  1. The scientific method precludes "belief", you don't believe anything, you logically deduce models (that may be based on axioms supported by empirical observation)
  2. Just because a group of people do not share your opinion, that does not mean they are "shills".  It means that they disagree with you and until you can prove them wrong, to each his own.
  3. It's quite farcical you should mention Exxon:

You have now proven beyond a reasonable doubt that you are willing to slander people with opposing opinions and even when you do, you can't even get your facts straight!  So how are you not "selling"?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:47 | 1946627 falak pema
falak pema's picture

1° the scientists work on facts, as a reader who has no access to facts I 'believe' as I have no scientific way of verifying. You sir, misrepresent the words I say and split hairs.

2° Which group of people don't share my opinion? I only said ONE THING : I agree with the group findings in Durban. Why are you conjecturing in thin air?

3° Now you are contradiciting yourself : Exxon is the greatest adversary to capping national/ coporate emissions Time and again advocated by the climate change advocates/NGOs. They opposed Copenhagen tooth and nail. They financed those who said global warming was NOT man made. Exxon is the canary in the coal mine when it comes to fighting climate change. They have been big time opponents to national limits on big polluters like USA/CHina.

4° I have slandered nobody. I stand by what I say on Exxon's public position on greenhouse effect and climate change. 

What opposing opinions are you referring to? You haven't stated ONE FACT in your rant, just innuendo, apart from saying Exxon is on the carbon tax side. If its true its a good evolution since Copenhagen. But their opposition to national limits as that of US administration is an international stumbling block.

 

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:12 | 1947022 Yousif
Yousif's picture

"as a reader who has no access to facts"

I agree.

"I have slandered nobody."

"They [Exxon] financed those who said global warming was NOT man made."

Contradiction.

"I stand by what I say on Exxon's public position on greenhouse effect and climate change."

Title: Exxon Says Austrailia Carbon Tax Preferable to Trading

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aFQW.o6KqEKo

Not only do you not have access to facts, I think those which you have are outdated.

It is not easy to challenge a belief system.  I will refrain from doing so.

I will conclude my points with the following:

  • Despite not having access to facts, you have chosen to preach a "belief" which you are not well read on.
  • You are calling AGW skeptics "paid shiils" and claim that you are not slandering.
  • You are not able to come into terms with someone disagreeing with you, consequently, you are not able to debate.

I'd like to take this opportunity to thank you for giving me the chance to see inside the mind of an AGW "believer".  I have seen what I wanted to see.

Have a nice day!

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 18:53 | 1947489 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I don't preach I affirm my belief. Its the right of all free thinkers.

Those who work for Exxon are on a paid and political agenda yes. I have read those reports and its all BS and innate number crunching to disprove other data. Negationism. Ok no problem. I can understand a corporate fighting for its bottom line.

I can come to terms with people disagreeing with me. I no problem with that. My starting premise was that the guys in Durban have it right and I can believe them based on practical experiences all over the world in real time. The skeptics have it wrong, but its not a scientific proven fact, I'll grant you that. But I'm happy to listen to contrary arguments; Your only argument is to nit pick. You have not provided anything to construct a valid case except an admission that Exxon is now more politically correct than in 2010. But I don't kneel to Exxon. I know who Exxon is, but feel free to kneel away if it's your belief system.

As you pretend to know all on the AGW issue here is something to chew for your dessert :

 

Three-Quarters of Climate Change Is Man-Made

An independent study quantifies the human and natural contributions, with solar radiation contributing only minimally

 

gooden tak.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:01 | 1944893 Justinx34
Justinx34's picture

Why did the blog post about the Iran shooting down a USA plane get removed from ZH just now??

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:05 | 1944907 UnderDeGun
UnderDeGun's picture

It's further down now. It's still there.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:10 | 1944918 VelvetHog
VelvetHog's picture

That's it.  I'm only listening to Steve LIESman for now on.  He has the BEST dope!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:15 | 1944927 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

"the world is just a bottled time capsule running on empty"

"future's too, will see their glass half empty - half full, as time immortalizes a beginning without an end,... soon to void itself of all creation as a failed existence"

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:20 | 1944941 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Smart American's aren't in Government sadly.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:49 | 1945008 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Gingrich 25%

Paul 18%

Romney 16%

Bachmann 8%

Cain 8%

Perry 6%

Santorum 6%

Huntsman 2%

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:24 | 1945098 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Gingrich is one scary dude:

 

Gingrich’s Third Wave Plan for America

And just what kind of "culture" does Mr. Gingrich want to see take hold in America? In my insightful, eye-opening book,

 Circle of Intrigue 

I unmask the traitorous anti-American intentions of Gingrich and his associates in crime. "I have an enormous political ambition," Gingrich told the Washington Post. "I want to shift the entire planet and I’m doing it."

This planetary shift of Gingrich’s takes a number of dangerous forms. It is, in fact, all part of the revolutionary socialist movement which Gingrich calls the "Third Wave." The Plan calls for nothing less than to radically change America into a fascist "paradise" with citizens stripped of constitutional rights. What is planned is a virtual high tech prison, an Orwellian Police State superintended by the self-appointed "Masters."

 

http://www.texemarrs.com/choice_for_2012.htm

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:41 | 1944992 monkeys.pick.bottoms
monkeys.pick.bottoms's picture

There will not be any war between the U.S. and Iran. That would be against U.S. interests. I do believe we are ruled by objectivists. (Note I haven't used the word "governed" - for this we have the clowns). There may, however, be a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia once President Paul removes the 5th fleet in early 2013...

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:15 | 1945071 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

**That would be against U.S. interests**

It might be against U.S. interests but it's not against Israel's interest and the U.S. foreign policy is completely controlled by the Zionists.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:53 | 1945016 non_anon
non_anon's picture

watch the right hand

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 18:59 | 1945031 no life
no life's picture

We're gonna need a bigger boat !

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:08 | 1945056 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

The day the US solves the energy problem, we can let all these goat fuckers do what they do best - little boys.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:09 | 1945060 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Spatula Rex ! I responded with my "calculus" on the Drone downing thread FWIW !

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:14 | 1945066 saiybat
saiybat's picture

http://www.businessinsider.com/ron-paul-slams-trump-joins-huntsman-in-si...

Ron Paul will join Jon Huntsman in boycotting the Dec. 27 Newsmax Republican presidential debate featuring Donald Trump as a moderator, saying in a statement that the reality television star's participation is "beneath the office of the Presidency."

The rest of them should put on clown suits and do a wrestling match. At least it'd be entertaining. Make them earn their keep maybe even gladiatorial matches in congress. We need to go back to the ancient times when kings were the first in battle or no one would go to war for them. I wouldn't care if they did another TARP so long as the congressman that proposed it had to fight to the death and strangle another congressman with his bare hands to get it passed.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:19 | 1945081 rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

WWIII bitchez!

 

libertarian86.blogspot.com

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:42 | 1945130 AndrewCostello
AndrewCostello's picture

We are wasting the worlds wealth on trying to save the two most fraudulent currencies (Euro and US Dollar).  It is time to let them BOTH fail.

 

We will be far better off in the long term.

 

Read:

http://www.amazon.com/Simple-Wealth-Mr-Andrew-Costello/dp/1463523017/ref

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 19:58 | 1945172 Mr.Kowalski
Mr.Kowalski's picture

There is more to this; apparently the Egyptian junta is trying desperately to hold up the value of their currency as capital flight increases. Their foreign reserves are dwindling dangerously low. By the time the military leaves Egyot, their foreign reserves will be gone. The value of their currency will collapse, and the price of rice will skyrocket. Whoops.

http://themeanoldinvestor.blogspot.com/2011/11/jihad-hunger.html

 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:18 | 1945212 chump666
chump666's picture

Dumb ass bulls want another santa rally, you f*cking brain dead a-holes we had it when the FED sent some come to the ECB and they licked it up.  It's done.  Iran goes, oil hits 140+ in one day, equities will be sent to hell.  EUR?  Crushed end yr. Merkel will still resist the EURO bonds and the Italian nut at the ECB on the print madness.

And then there is China, oh dear me, ready to sink into stagflation pain.

Momos looking for the greed will get smashed to oblivion.  This market is topped and ready to pop.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:20 | 1945214 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45540949

TEHRAN - Iran warned the West on Sunday any move to block its oil exports would more than double crude prices with devastating consequences on a fragile global economy.

"As soon as such an issue is raised seriously the oil price would soar to above $250 a barrel," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said in a newspaper interview.

The U.S. Senate voted on Thursday to penalize foreign financial institutions that do business with Iran's central bank

-- which takes payment for the 2.6 million barrels Iran exports a day. The European Union is considering a ban -- already in place in the United States -- on Iranian oil imports.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 21:04 | 1945328 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

CME Clearing to Accept Offshore Chinese Renminbi (CNH) as Collateral for Futures Trading, Partner with HSBC for Far East Custodial Services

 

http://m.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cme-clearing-to-accept-offshore-ch...

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 07:46 | 1946100 Element
Element's picture

The reality is there is not a country on Earth with a modern cashed-up military that has not designed a family of nuclear munitions. They ALL do it and have done it. It is absolutely necessary to do it - you HAVE to do it! And all have designed and or built and tested precision delivery of high performance missiles.

And numerous countries have thoroughly researched and developed uranium enrichment technologies. Australia has had four separate SECRET uranium enrichment programs operating sequentially and also in parallel, since 1965. Which is rather curious since;

1) we don't sell or export enriched reactor fuel and there are no serious plans to ever do so - nor has there been.

2) nor do we make our own reactor fuel for our own domestic research reactor needs (this comes from overseas).

So why would Australia have 46 year long history of Secret uranium enrichment programs, and has actually developed and produced the world's most advanced and in fact only operational laser enrichment technology, that is far more advanced than anything the US or Russia have? You'd have to be a complete chump to not get what's happened there.

Australia is a state that can go nuclear at any time (and it didn't need reactors to get there). There are several other countries that can do the same. Iran is simply positioning itself to able to become one of these 'threshold' states.

--

But my point is this; this morning I listened to a complete arse named Hillary Clinton who accused Iran of researching the production of nuclear weapons. Well guess what, so has every country you care to mention, that has a viable modern economy and military capability, and a sense of potential strategic insecurity.

What this means, bitch, is that these countries -- DO NOT TRUST THE USA, OR IT'S US NUCLEAR UNBRELLA OR THE HOLLOW REASSURANCES, DOCTRINES AND PROMISES OF PROTECTION. Why do you think Israel has them? BECAUSE THEY DON'T TRUST THE USSA.  All powers know the US is completely full of shit, and always has been.

Iran is no different to any other modern State in that regard, and they are perfectly entitled to defend their own interests and territory, and to seek to assist others who are being attacked and exploited by NWO cowards and thugs. That the USA has the nerve to just wantonly invade Iran's airspace ... well, remember the U2 and A-12 / SR-71 flights over Russia in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and 1980s? Flights directly over Russia itself!

So the Russians sure know this US game. This is what the US really does.  Washington doesn't give a shit about the "national airspace" and sovereignty of any other country. If the state can't control it, then as far as the US is concerned it's probably their airspace. Russia realised the USA only understands a powerful air defence system backed by nukes in big bombers, and on ICBMS and in SLCMs.

This is the simple and verifyable plain truth that the snivelling wretched murdering war-criminal cunt Hillary Clinton pretends is not the historical and present-day reality for every country on Earth.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:44 | 1945278 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

**STOP THE PRESSES**

Martin Short's fictional character Nathan Thurm has come uncannily to life in the person of Lang Brewer, Head of Criminal Division of the US Justice Dept. ... well, minus the cigarette.

I haven't bothered watching 60 Minutes for quite a while since they've been pretty much asleep at the switch for years, but Henry Champ had the sweat beads popping out on the twitching face of the erstwhile Mr. Brewer.

Mr. Holder ... Eric Holder ... paging Mr. Eric Holder

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98MNisZJyFI

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 22:08 | 1945501 Monedas
Monedas's picture

You have to go back 60 years to dig up a little dirt ? For the record, McCarthyism was to 60 years of Democrat party erosion of freedom as was the Three Mile Island incident to Chernobyl ! Eric Holder alone trumps McCarthy 10 fold ! Fast and Furious ?  And it turns out the Commies were an Evil Empire ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Historical Perspective !

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:08 | 1945721 L.O.C
L.O.C's picture

m

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 21:39 | 1945383 JR
JR's picture

The only war talk we hear on Zero Hedge is the weekend. Is this a weekend war or what? And the kicker is always oil – oil is going to torpedo. Is Marla, aka Bess Levin of Dealbreaker, back at ZH?

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 21:50 | 1945415 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Thank goodness the Latin Americans are Catholic and don't have the collective intellect to imagine a higher form of existence than last century's Socialism (In their defense....who does, these days ?) ! Thank goodness the Muslim world can't rise above Israel ! If all those middle earth brown people ever got their act together they would be a formidable force ! Relax, it won't happen ! I don't see a World War on the horizon, either ! I think Bush's war has generated a slow burn of internal strife that will keep the Muslims too occupied to mess with Israel ! You won't see a break out of Libertarian Democracies....Hell, we don't even have that ! I see delicious pay back of years of suffering for the despotic terrorist states ! We will contain the festering sores of Islam and feel vindicated ! Bush deserves the Nobel prize for peace ! We've got the bad guys just where we want them ! Enjoy the spectacle of their suffering......they deserve it ! Although I mock their predicament.....it does them no good.....they lack the decent, fair minded character and resolve to bring a better life to themselves......in spite of their hideous oil wealth ! They remind me of the gaggle of female, bitch cow circus elephants in "Dumbo".....shrieking at Dumbo's little mouse mentor ! Israel ? Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Get A Life Beyond Obsessing On Israel !

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 23:48 | 1945708 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

I think the western religion of Christianity already had its conflicts resolved mid-1000's.  Islam is a bit younger, so does not appear to have had that opportunity.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reformation

Excerpt from the wiki:

 

"The Reformation led to a series of religious wars that culminated in the Thirty Years' War(1618–1648), which devastated much of Germany, killing between 25 and 40% of its population."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 09:47 | 1946228 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Islam went to sleep ideologically around 1300-1400. The tree of knowledge died then; the tree of knowledge had come to Europe again, after the long period of the dark ages, whose inception could be iconised by MArco Polo/Dante around 1300. It flowered there through renaissance, reform and enlightenment, over 300-400 years, if we assume the renaissance started in 1400-1450.

Assuming that Islam is now reawakening thanks to US OiL lobby shenanigans since 1970, that has opened the Pandora's box of Middle East as of 1979, when Iran revolted; then we should have a turbulent period of another century or more before  ISlam, and its birth seat ME, become secular and modern.  This is based on drawing parallels, as you suggest, between Occident and Orient on religious evolution after date of awakening, taking into account that in today's age mentalities will evolve much faster than during the renaissance age, as we have Internet. 

The historical enigma is WHY Islam went to intellectual sleep and never woke up for five hundred years, inspite of winning the Crusades, inspite of founding three great 'gunpowder empires' during the renaissance age : Safavid, Moghul and Ottoman empires, resplendent and powerful from 1450/1500 to 1700.

To answer this I am writing a novel about this paradox. First volume of which : http://www.falakpema.com/buythebook.html

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 22:24 | 1945546 Teddy Turner
Teddy Turner's picture

Maybe this is why the world is so messed up

http://www.youtube.com/user/TickingClock2013?feature=mhee

 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 23:39 | 1945690 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

and... now you know - all this time the West has basically been playing sides on an internal religious war.  Keep destabilizing Middle Eastern countries and populations by playing and providing support to one side or the other in little ways and have them killing and distrusting each other instead of focusing on the West... and all the while extracting resources until there is none left.  I guess continuation of milennia...

 

Yawn.

 

Interesting read.

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