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Here Come The Praises For The "Stronger Than Expected" Retail Sales From Bank of America And Goldman

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Instead of actually doing the work to figure out what is going on behind the headlines, both Goldman (which also hiked its Q3 forecast GDP to 2.3% as a result) and Bank of America rushed to come to market with their congratulatory notes praising the "far stronger than expected" retail sales number. And as a result clients of these two banks will be promptly skewered as happens now virtually all the time on belief that the "rebound" in the economy is real instead of an ARIMA driven seasonal adjustment abortion.

From Goldman's "economists"

BOTTOM LINE: Retail sales increase notably more than expected in July reflecting across-the-board strength in sales [ZH: 100% wrong - it reflected just a "stronger than expected" seasonal adjustment]. Core producer prices also rise ahead of expectations in July, but much of the surprise can be explained with sharp gains in tobacco and vehicle prices. Q3 GDP tracking rises to 2.3%.

 

MAIN POINTS:

 

1. Retail sales were notably stronger than expected in July, up 0.8% on the month versus 0.3% expected. Key details of the report were also better than anticipated: non-auto retail sales were up 0.8% and “core”/control retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline and building materials) gained 0.9%. Revisions to core retail sales were small on net as an upward revision to May was broadly offset by a downward revision to June. The strength of sales in July reflected higher sales across the board, including non-store retailers (+1.5%), sporting goods (+1.6%), furniture (+1.1%) and health/personal care (+1.1%). The report was a positive for our tracking estimate of Q3 GDP growth, which we raised by one tenth to 2.3%.

 

2. The July Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.3% (month-over-month), slightly higher than consensus expectations of +0.2%. The core PPI increased by 0.4% (month-over-month), also higher than consensus expectations for a 0.2% gain. However, about half of the gain in the core PPI—and thus much of the surprise—can be explained with sharp gains in tobacco and vehicle prices. The core PPI is up 2.6% on a year-over-year basis.

And from BofA's "economists" who however are trying to both praise the retail sales number while still demanding more QE. Why? Because as we said, banks are desperate for another reserve (i.e., cash) injection from the Fed.

Much stronger than expected retail sales

 

Retail sales surged 0.8% in July, above expectations of a 0.3% gain. After netting out autos, gasoline and building material sales, "core control" sales climbed 0.9%. This is significantly above our forecast and adds 0.4pp to Q3 GDP growth, bringing our tracking for Q3 GDP to 1.7%. Our tracking for Q2 GDP was unchanged at 1.8%. While this is certainly far from healthy growth, it is also clearly not at recession levels either. Combined with the solid payroll report for June, today's retail sales data further reduces the likelihood of QE3 in September but does not take it off the table, in our view. All eyes are on durable goods next week and July payrolls in early September. Today's data may have bought the Fed some time. 

  • The volatile components: Auto sales edged up 0.8%, gasoline station sales increased 0.5% and building material sales jumped 1.0%. Gasoline sales have tumbled over the prior three months, reflecting lower prices. On a seasonally adjusted basis, gasoline prices stabilized in July. Building material sales have also been very noisy - falling sharply over the prior few months after very strong gains in the winter. We think this was largely due to abnormal weather patterns and July is likely a "clean" read. 
  • General merchandise: Consumers increased spending on general merchandise with department store sales up 0.6% and non-store retailers posting a solid 1.5% gain. Sporting good sales also up 1.6%, clothing up 0.8% and electronics gained 0.9%. The gain in non-store retailers, which capture internet shopping, has been impressive over the past several years, up over 15% this year. 
  • Consumer fundamentals: The strong gain in July sales comes on the back of several months of sluggish growth. Overall, consumer fundamentals are still weak with only slow job growth and hence sluggish income gains. That said, in part because of the drop in commodity prices, real disposable income has been on an up trend, running at a three-month annualized pace of 3.8%. The saving rate was able to tick up to 4.4% in June. This recent improvement may have supported consumer spending. 
  • GDP implications: Even after assuming a modest payback in core retail sales over the next two months of the quarter, today's report adds 0.4pp to Q3 GDP growth. We are therefore now tracking 1.7% for Q3 GDP growth. The revisions were minor, hence leaving Q2 GDP sill tracking 1.8%. 
  • The bigger picture: Despite today's stronger retail sales report, we remain comfortable with our outlook for the second half of the year. We continue to believe that the uncertainty shock from the fiscal cliff will start to show up in the hard data in short order. Corporations will likely slow investment, initially in equipment and software, but ultimately also in labor. We believe this will spill over to the consumer, translating to a slowdown in spending and lower confidence. We still have confidence in our forecast for 1% GDP growth in Q4. 
  • FOMC implications: While we believe the Fed will engage in QE3 before year-end, today's retail sales report is another piece of data (along with June payrolls) that makes it less urgent. We look for the Fed to extend its forward guidance for the first rate hike at the September 13th meeting from late-2014 to late-2015. But, we believe it has become less likely that the Fed will go ahead with a one-two punch and announce QE3 at the next meeting as well. We believe it has become increasingly possible that the Fed waits until December for confirmation of the slowing economy and completion of operation twist. That said, it is clearly data dependent - durable goods next week will be an indication of corporate behavior, ISM on September 4 will provide an update on the slowing manufacturing sector and, of course, the all-important jobs report on September 7. 

 

 


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Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment user2011
user2011's picture

Of course, they will praise the results.   Tomorro, the 15th is the date that 401K and retirement contribution comes in.    If they don't praise the prospect of the market,   they can't continue their profitable trading streak.

At this point, I really don't understand why people continue to contribut to 401K....

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Stuart
Stuart's picture

There are times I really would not mind reading about a revolution occuring overnight.  Just saying...

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

"GS raises forecasts" translates to "we're fucked".

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Never!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

there must be a couple muppets remaining to skewer.  Herd is thinning however.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

That is quite a lengthy commentary from a data point that has only been made available to the public a short while. You don't think they knew about the number perhaps just a wee bit earlier than everybody else?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

hey...I don't like the tone of your voice!  Don't forgrt, these are the smartest guys in the room afterall.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

Just plain third grade fools who bribe and screw the sheeple.

The sooner Goldman is banned and dismantled by liquidation the better for the world.

 

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Please stop picking at the veneer with your finger nails, the edifice is starting to look ratty and we still need to flip this bitch.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

They're way ahead of you. They've already got an infinite number of monkeys on an infinite number of typewriters.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

utterly pathetic.  it's like they want the surprise to the downsice to be greater .. higher they can get hte market, the greater it can fall and the more they can profit.  pure evil.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

Wow retail sales is up a mosquito fart in July so..... Outlook looks great for the next 1000 years

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Don't get too excited. Everyone gets their student loan money in July. Or atleast knows what they are getting in August.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Roland99
Roland99's picture

Markets love bad news cuz that means QE

Markets love good news cuz that means better GDP

 

The house always wins!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment vbone
vbone's picture

vbone gives tehy translation

 

dear public. buy they stocks bros! we needs more bagholders bros

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

The Mindless Street Media will proudly hype this number for their advertisers.  What's not to understand?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

Goldmanites buying crack pipes and Bentleys.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

You didn't buy that retail product, somebody else did.

Hahahhha, this time the Obama meme is true.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:41 | Link to Comment AT
AT's picture

July is when our family finally bit the bullet and stocked up on food and emergency supplies. Spent an extra 2-3 percent of annual income (not including gold purchases) in that month alone. 

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

Al buy some stocks,retail sales are great! sorry Dave I can't do that! Al I said buy some stocks. Dave you are an idiot there is no volume it's all bs go back to sleep!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 11:00 | Link to Comment nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

More sacrificial lambs to the Goldman altar

 

When will people ever learn that to follow Goldman is following the Devil

 

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Corporations will likely slow investment, initially in equipment and software, but ultimately also in labor.

Oh yeah, this gives me total confidence to buy some $FB and $JCP shares.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

TYX targeting -46% lower to 1.5% does not a rebound suggest:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24TYX

Overnight Options holds SPY puts:

http://richcash8tradeblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/rich-cash-overnight-options.html

 

 

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Note how sporting goods are up? Guess my handgun and ammo purchase helped after all.

Seasonally adjust that, BitZhes...

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